In the City — "Brad Stone's Key Takeaways from Davos"

Podcast: In the City (Bloomberg)
Date: January 24, 2025
Host(s): Francine Lacqua, David Merritt
Guest: Brad Stone (Editor, Bloomberg Businessweek)

Episode Overview

This episode provides a lively, insider debrief from Davos 2025, focusing on the conversations shaping global business and policy, particularly the outsized influence of Donald Trump, the AI arms race, economic divides between the US and Europe, and the shifting presence of China and India. Francine Lacqua and David Merritt are joined by Businessweek editor Brad Stone to unpack the big themes, the mood among global CEOs, and the underlying dynamics driving much of the week's agenda.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Davos Mood: Two Dominant Tracks

• US vs Europe on AI: US executives displayed exuberance about AI's potential, while Europeans appeared pessimistic, uncertain about how to keep pace.

• Trump's Overarching Presence: Conversations constantly circled back to how Trump's potential policies and rhetoric would shape geopolitics and global markets, even in his (physical) absence.

  "Geopolitics, of course, a lot of what's happening with AI. But all the conversations continue to return to Donald Trump ... putting America first and leaving the rest of the world behind." — Francine Lacqua (02:41)

• AI: From Hype to Substance: This year’s AI discussions were less speculative and more concrete, with big dollar amounts and major alliances in the spotlight.

  "Even more than last year, I think there's a feeling that we are on the verge of something. You could call it superintelligence, you could call it AGI. In any event, the Kool Aid is being handed out amply and everybody's talking about it..." — Brad Stone (03:41)

2. US Business Leaders’ Optimism vs European Doubts

• US CEOs are optimistic, driven by anticipated deregulation and tax cuts, while European leaders are guarded amid uncertainty and regulatory hesitance.

• Larry Fink’s perspective underscores broad European gloom—but with a twist:

  "I've never experienced such pessimism about Europe. Maybe it's a good entry point." — as recalled by Francine Lacqua (07:23)

• Strategic Disconnect on AI: While US businesses trumpet AI advances, European CEOs admit uncertainty over practical applications, from digital assistants to "personal robots."

3. The AI Arms Race: Alliances, Rivalries, and Showmanship

• Massive Investment Rumors: Discussion of the "Stargate" project—a $500B+ initiative involving Oracle, OpenAI, and Amazon, with Trump’s visible blessing.

  "They bandied about these numbers, a 500 billion probably last dollar investment in a series of data centers and energy sources...and then Donald Trump, of course, giving the rabbinical blessing to it." — Brad Stone (04:45)

• Rivalries & Vaporware: Tensions between OpenAI and other players, plus skepticism about whether the vast investments (or even the announcements) are real.

  "There’s a little bit of vapor around these announcements...we’re going to get a lot of these sort of quasi announcements where we’re really trying to interpret what are they trying to tell us, but what is the reality behind the presentation?" (05:43)

• Europe's Struggle: European champions like Mistral and DeepMind (UK) get nods, but are seen as outpaced, especially with DeepMind's acquisition and leadership dominated by US interests.

4. Geopolitical Tensions: China, India, and the World Stage

• China’s Absence: Strikingly, China had a much less visible presence at Davos—a signal, perhaps, of caution with Trump back in focus.

  "The absence of China from this forum ... may be telling of things to come. Because if you're kind of in the ... eye line of Donald Trump, maybe you don't want to be seen too much." — Francine Lacqua (11:50)

• India Ascendant: India, meanwhile, was highly visible and energetic, positioning itself as the new APAC growth hub.

• Eye on China Tech: Brad Stone flagged DeepSeek, a little-known Beijing AI company, as a sleeper competitor drawing curiosity.

5. Trump’s Personality: The “Single Show” Effect

• Business Deference: CEOs are reticent to criticize Trump, displaying “remarkable ability to pivot” and prioritizing harmony over principle.

  "Marc Benioff, as staunch a Democrat as you could find, had nary a word of criticism yesterday ... I'm sure his private feelings may differ from his public posture." — Brad Stone (16:14)

• Dealing with Uncertainty: Leaders grapple with balancing flattery, political risk, and not knowing which of Trump’s stances are truly strategic.

  "You have to study psychology." — Francine Lacqua (12:40) "It's the Trump psychology, which is why everybody's so rosy. They know this is a transactional president and everyone's got their bouquet of roses and is putting it at his feet right now." — Brad Stone (12:40)

• Policy vs. Theater: The TikTok saga exemplifies Trump’s deal-making style, where tech and geopolitics intertwine and the true motives remain murky.

  "He introduced the idea of a TikTok ban...sure, he's getting something. It may not be from China, maybe from some of his donors who are major investors in TikTok's owner, ByteDance." — Brad Stone (16:54)

6. Market & Policy Volatility

• Uncertainty Rules: Major CEOs are holding their tongues and opting for caution in interviews, wary of fallout in a volatile political and economic environment.

• Crypto and Memes: Flippancy about "Doji of Dave Merritt" highlights how some policy pronouncements (esp. on crypto) blur the line between serious and spectacle (13:39).

• Ukraine and Beyond: Davos sessions underlined that Trump is seen as a pivotal decision-maker for Ukraine, global security, and conflict outlooks.

  "Trump is the ultimate player in any sort of resolution." — David Merritt (15:18)

Memorable Quotes & Noteworthy Moments

• "We've all, since the election, we've been debating, when is this alliance of tech leaders and Donald Trump going to start to sour? Are we seeing that already?" — David Merritt (06:34)

• "Chief executives ... understand AI, but they don't really. ... It's Strava telling me what route I've taken ... but it's also this super human artificial intelligence which could really change everything, like personal robots." — Francine Lacqua (07:35)

• "Trump coming in here ... making it clear that this is a national security issue, that the rivalry is with China, and ... he will put the muscle of the US government behind OpenAI and the other national champions." — Brad Stone (09:56)

• "I have a feeling next year we will be talking about Donald Trump ... that is the first rule of the Trump presidency. You talk about Trump." — Brad Stone (18:15)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:22 – 03:28: The hosts set the Davos scene and introduce guest Brad Stone
• 03:41 – 05:27: The main tracks at Davos: AI momentum vs Trump’s influence
• 05:43 – 07:23: Skepticism around big AI investment announcements; US tech rivalries
• 07:35 – 09:41: US vs Europe on optimism; miscommunications and hand-waving around AI's reality
• 09:49 – 10:46: The struggle of European AI champions (Mistral, DeepMind); US regulatory muscle
• 11:18 – 11:48: China’s absence, India’s growing weight, and the rise of DeepSeek
• 12:40 – 13:25: How CEOs approach Trump: psychology, flattery, and transactional politics
• 13:39 – 14:46: Political caution, market volatility, the wild west of crypto
• 15:18 – 16:10: Trump’s centrality to Ukraine and global peace deals
• 16:54 – 17:21: The TikTok question and its ties to US-China relations
• 17:48 – 18:39: Looking ahead: predicting volatility, Europe in flux, and Trump as the constant topic

Conclusion

This Davos debrief distills the air of anticipation, rivalry, and cautious pragmatism among global leaders. AI is the talk of the town, but its promises are mixed with skepticism and geopolitical intrigue. With Trump’s shadow looming over economic and political discourse, optimism and anxiety intermingle. Europe’s uncertain footing, China’s strategic withdrawal, and India’s rise all signal a shifting global order. Above all, the consensus is clear: understanding—and adapting to—Trump’s unpredictable style is this year's essential skill for anyone with a stake in global affairs.

For more insights, listen to the full episode of In the City: "Brad Stone's Key Takeaways from Davos."