Podcast Host/Interviewer (3:20)

Bye. Joining us now to break it all down is Paul Rykoff, host of the Independent Americans podcast podcast. Paul, always good to see you. So much to talk about. So currently, and this is according to the Iranian news service, the Strait of Hormuz has shut down again after Israel strikes on Lebanon. President Trump says Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire deal. Let's read a little bit of what Carolyn Levitt said about this very issue.

Guest Analyst/Commentator (3:53)

Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (3:55)

That has been relayed to all parties

Guest Analyst/Commentator (3:57)

involved in the ceasefire.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (3:59)

As you know, Prime Minister Netanyahu put

Guest Analyst/Commentator (4:01)

out out a statement last night in support of the ceasefire, in support of the United States efforts.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (4:06)

And he's also assured the president they'll

Guest Analyst/Commentator (4:08)

continue to be a helpful partner throughout the course of the next two weeks.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (4:11)

Why did Israel pick now to strike Lebanon just a few hours after this two week ceasefire and what seemed like a path to diplomacy?

Paul Rykoff (4:19)

I think because they can. That's it. I think the reality is that America can't stop them from doing anything. And that's a really important part of what the last couple of weeks has shown is that Israel can operate independently. And I don't think that Trump can necessarily stop them. He may have influence. He may be able to make threats, he may be able to negotiate behind the scenes. But Israel is gonna do what they think they have to do to defend their own national security. And the same is true for everybody in the region. That's why what we're seeing today is probably our complicated new normal. There's a limit to how much Trump can control. And I don't think anybody wants to be the first country to send their tanker through the strait right now and have it be blown up and impact insurance rates and the entire global market. So it's a very fragile situation. And even if Trump says a ceasefire is in place, it doesn't mean they can control all the bad actors and danger in the region. And that's a real tough calculation for anybody driving a tanker right now.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (5:04)

Yeah, I mean, look at empty the Strait of Hormuz. Is currently Pakistan's prime minister. He said on Axe, of course, one of the mediators of that ceasefire. Violations of ceasefire have been reported at few places across the conflict zone which undermine the spirit of peace process. I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks as agreed upon. Guthar also says its armed forces intercepted missiles and drones fired at them. Does this ceasefire seemed to doomed from the beginning? I do want to say we had a general on a few minutes ago and he says the first few hours are always this fragile and this tricky, but this seems. This seems very dangerous, this rhetoric.

Paul Rykoff (5:44)

This entire region is always this dangerous and this tricky. And I think to assume that anything will hold is probably not grounded in reality. I think the reality is twofold. Number one, you got a lot of bad actors in the region that you can't trust. Of course, right from Iran to even Pakistan. And some would argue Trump is one of those bad actors. Then you've got an overestimation of what they can control. I mean, the Iranian regime may not be able to control every proxy in the region. The word may not have gotten down to isolated units, and you've got folks who may just say, you know what? I don't believe in the regime. I want to hit some things. So the overestimation of the ability of these folks, especially authoritarians, to control what is a pretty disparate and fragmented military force is, I think, really important here. Right. They've blown a lid off this now. Right. And a lot of people know they can have power and influence if they hit anything in and around the Strait. I think some folks are going to take shots and that may be on Trump's control. So I think the ceasefire is very, very fragile. He may want to spike the ball and claim victory, but for the folks in the region right now, it sure doesn't look like victory.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (6:36)

Well, Secretary of War Pet Hegseth is declaring victory. Here's what he said.

Paul Rykoff (6:41)

Operation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield. A capital V military victory by any measure. Epic Fury decimated Iran's military and rendered it combat ineffective for years to come. Together with our Israeli partners, America's military achieved every single objective on plan, on schedule, exactly as laid out from day one.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (7:11)

How is this a big V a victory when the Goal or the definition of what this war would entail was never made clear.

Paul Rykoff (7:20)

It's not. I mean, that's a really important point here. Nobody believes Hegseth anymore.

Guest Analyst/Commentator (7:24)

It's true.

Paul Rykoff (7:25)

The world doesn't believe Hegseth. Congress doesn't believe it. His own party doesn't believe it. Maybe the President believes him at time, but it's become ridiculous. And for him to say this is a clear, definitive military victory, it's not. It's incomplete at best. They didn't get rid of the regime, keep the straight open. They didn't secure the nukes. I mean, this is all a big incomplete right now. And he can try to spike the ball and claim victory, but he might be the only person who thinks that's true.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (7:48)

He did mention that the Pentagon is will soon be stepping back. We have seen conflicts in the Middle east before where we have stepped back, some would say prematurely. It didn't end well us for them or for that nation. So what do you see the strategy moving forward if we do pull our troops back?

Paul Rykoff (8:04)

I think the Middle east has become kind of a sucking chest wound for our military. And I think the bigger concern that I have is we continue to pump resources into that region at the expense of other enemies like China and North Korea. So I think the North Koreans, Putin, the Chinese are happy to have us continue to get pulled into a wider ongoing war in the Middle east and to have our eye taken off the ball. I think we also have to underscore Trump has said he wants forever war. He's already talking about Cuba, so he might pull back on Iran and then throttle into Cuba. So the bigger question is can Congress stop him from doing anything? Cuz they didn't stop him from moving forward on Iran. They didn't stop him from potentially putting boots on the ground. I don't think they'll be able to stop him if he wants to go into Cuba or even back here in the States to deploy federal troops into cities like New York and Chicago, like you said he might around the World Cup. He's got tremendous control over our military and almost none of it has been interrupted by either party in Congress. And I think that's the constitutional crisis we're facing is that he can do anything he wants and nothing's stopping him.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (8:57)

And he knows that the administration knows that. President Trump has said that Iran went through a very productive regime change. As far as we know, that is not true. In fact, the predecessor seems more radicalized than his predecessor. Excuse me, the sun seems more radicalized than his predecessor. Have we seen an Iranian regime change?

Paul Rykoff (9:17)

No. I mean, it's a younger, more extreme version of what we had before. The Iranians don't seem free. I think the Iranian people would tell us most of all if there was regime change. And they're not telling us that. They're not coming out, they're not rising up. There's no new leadership in place. And I think Trump's pulling a kind of switcheroo here. I mean, these were our enemies 48 hours ago, and now they're people we can negotiate with. It just doesn't wash with, I think, most of the world right now. And the Iranians continue to be well established, militarily threatening, and most of all, controlling the Iranian people. I think the thing to watch is the Iranian people will tell us when they feel free, and I don't hear any of them saying that right now.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (9:49)

We've had a lot of military experts and commentators on this show who said this war could potentially make Iran a global superpower in the future. Do you agree with that sentiment?

Paul Rykoff (9:59)

I think it's improved their standing. I mean, the regime is still in place. They've still got their nukes, oil prices have gone up, and they're in a better financial situation. And after two weeks, you know, the strait that was open before is now in their favor. Right. It's back open again, and they're charging more money. And Trump's okay with that. Right hand has been improved. I don't think there's any debating that. The question is whether they'll be able to maintain that over time, if there will be any internal pushback and if Trump is going to continue to negotiate with them like they're reasonable actors, but they can't be trusted. We know they're brutal and they're oppressing their own people. And until they're out of power, I don't think too much is going to change.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (10:31)

All right, Paul Rykoff, I always love talking to you in person. Thank you so much. You can listen to the independent Americans wherever you get your podcast.

Guest Analyst/Commentator (10:41)

Iran, if given an option on a sort of choose your own Trump adventure, could have selected to lift all sanctions control from a security standpoint and an economic standpoint. The Strait of Hormuz. Strengthen your wartime relationship with Russia against the United States of America and set the terms of a ceasefire. I'm not sure they wouldn't have said, we'll rebuild our missiles and keep your enriched uranium.

Paul Rykoff (11:18)

Yeah. The good news is he didn't obliterate a society that's True. Right. The bad news is that he accepted a really crappy deal. He's isolated us even more from the world. We lost 13 troops. Hundreds have been wounded. The American society was disrupted in a way I don't think we've ever seen since the Cold War. And the reality, we might have to do it again in two weeks. And the other reality is he is still all gas, no brakes, and nothing is stopping him except maybe himself and maybe the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Cain. I've said to you for months, the most important story in the world is Donald Trump could do anything he wants with the most powerful military the world has ever seen. Yesterday, the world kind of faced that reality, and this country finally faced that reality. If he wanted to go forward, Congress wouldn't have stopped him. And the problem now is it's bigger than Iran. He wants forever war. He's already talking about Cuba. So he continues to go forward while everyone else chases him. And I don't think anybody should feel too good today because he's still moving forward on all fronts. And I point to Cuba as the potential next target. This is gut check time for Congress. And Congress failed. Congress failed yesterday to stop him in any way. I think the only significant progress was people finally started talking about how to remove him under the 25th Amendment, and that is gaining momentum, and I think it's more popular in America than people realize. I think the few Democrats, no Republicans yet, except for Marjorie Taylor Greene, have put that out there. People understand this won't stop until he's gone. So we as a country have to focus on the strategic priority which is removing him if we want this to stop. Otherwise, this is gonna be our normal. There are gonna be no days off, and it's gonna be something different every day.

Guest Analyst/Commentator (12:53)

What does the military do moving forward when it's now so clear that Trump will use the military as a pawn in the things he'll say. When he said, I will, quote, destroy your civilization, his intention was to use the military to do that.

Paul Rykoff (13:09)

I think internally they have to pick their spots, and I think we'll find out over the next couple days what the conversations look like internally. I continue to say that we should pray for and root for General Kaine because he might be the lone circuit breaker for our democracy and our military right now. We'll find out if he's a General Milley in the weeks and months to come. The other part that's really significant, that's still notably quiet is the retired generals and the fire generals. We need to hear from General Randy George. We need to hear from the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, CQ Brown. In this moment, one little statement at the Council on Foreign Relations or one little interview is not enough. This is an opportunity for them to come together and be an external circuit breaker and to potentially move Republicans who need to be moved if we're gonna slow him down and stop him, and if they're gonna ask for more money, if they're gonna ask for more allowances. We need those folks to break glass. They don't wanna get in politics. They always say that. But this is a moment that requires them to get into politics and speak directly to the American people.

Guest Analyst/Commentator (14:04)

I mean, to your point, though, the voters aren't buying it. Republicans continue to get wiped out every time that voters weigh in. I played that in part because this also happened yesterday. The FCC's Brendan Carr went after CNN, said he wanted accountability for Iran coverage. In Brendan Carr's telling, the attacks for CNN were because they reported that Iranian officials somehow viewed the ceasefire deal as a victory for them. I mean, Fox and Friends would seem to have agreed on that point.

Paul Rykoff (14:31)

I think his comments are a sign of desperation. They're reeling. Nobody thinks this is a victory anywhere in the entire world except for Pete Hegset. And nobody in the world believes anything coming out of Pete Hexeth's mouth. So he probably doesn't even believe it. This is not a victory, and I don't think they can spin their way out of it. I think it's especially a defeat within their base that now considers this the new big lie. You promised no regime change wars. You promised no new wars, and you did it. I mean, we failed to achieve regime change in Iran. And I think now what most of the world wants is regime change here. I mean, they want Trump gone. They want Hegseth gone. And most Americans are moving toward wanting Trump gone, too, and definitely wanting Hegseth gone. The question is, how do we do it? Like, how do we stop him from continuing this? Because we have to take a step back and think about the insanity and the danger of what he just put the whole world through. I mean, he used the US Military and put a gun to the head of an entire country, and the whole world saw it. And he can't just wave a magic wand and act like we didn't see it. We all saw it. And there needs to be accountability. And I think that's the question now is where will it come? Will it come? I think you're seeing his overall popularity continue to plummet. People like Megyn Kelly are unloading on him and they're done. The whole world is kind of done with Trump, and more and more in America, people are done with. The question is, what's the strategy? Can the Democrats or anyone else create a strategy to hold him accountable for what he just did? Because we can't just move past that. That was absolutely unacceptable, insane and dangerous. And there's more to come if we don't deal with him and hold him accountable. Archipelago he tells me the left and right are dreams for those without a clue and when you wait it's time to grow and it's not cool to believe in school but if I can say one thing I've seen the children of the revolution and the good trouble they can bring he says the red and blue identity depending is an attitude an island in the sea of rhetoric and not the Raleigh tells me the left and right our dreams for those without a clue and when you wait it's time to grow Power by Righteous Media if you like the show, please take a moment to rate, review and subscribe. It really does help the show to grow. Thank you for listening.