Episode Overview

Title: Gallup: Independent Voters Hit 45% – So Why Does the Political Establishment Keep Pretending They Don’t Matter?
Host: Paul Rieckhoff, with special commentary from John Updike
Date: February 16, 2026
Podcast: Independent Americans

This episode dives into Gallup’s landmark poll showing 45% of American voters now identify as independents—the highest in modern history. Host Paul Rieckhoff and writer John Updike explore the significance of this shift, why the media and political establishment continually downplay independent voters, and how independents are actively shaping the nation’s political future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Gallup Poll and the 45% Surge

• Gallup’s recent poll found independent voter identification is at an all-time high (45%).
  • [01:19] Paul Rieckhoff: "Independents are now 45% of all voters. There was some really news making polling released recently by Gallup that shows the highest number of independent voters recorded in modern American history."
• Despite this, "the two parties are fighting against us. Still, the media doesn't pay attention to us. [...] Independents are still misunderstood and even dismissed." ([01:19] Rieckhoff)
• Rieckhoff characterizes independents as "the future," asserting that "we're not just moving the needle. We are the needle." ([02:16] Updike)

2. Mainstream Media & Political Establishment Response

• The established narrative claims independents are either ideologically scattered or partisans in disguise, thus rendering their growth irrelevant.
  • [02:30] John Updike: Quoting pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson: “Most voters who identify as independents do go on when pressed to say they lean more toward one party than the other.”
• Updike challenges this, calling it "a beautiful trick. Just twist independence arms until they cry uncle and admit they're still part of team Blue or Team Red."
• The 'spoiler' label is used derogatorily, suggesting votes "belong to the parties, not to the people."

3. A New Independent Movement & Potential

• Alternative Narrative: Researchers and organizers now see the large independent cohort as an opportunity, not a problem.
  • Distancing from parties signals "something brewing," and a lack of shared ideology is "an opportunity to bring people together in new ways." ([02:30–04:00] Updike)
  • "A majority of Americans across party lines now support the right of non party voters to participate in publicly funded primary elections." ([03:40] Updike)
• The independent movement is decentralized: "Independent voters have not congealed into a single party or organization... that's not consistent with the brand or anti-brand, whichever you prefer."
• There’s "experimenting going on with dozens of groups, candidates, and alternative entities exploring how to tap into independence."
  • Notable: Five independents running for U.S. Senate in 2026; more than 100 independent runs at all election levels projected.

4. Veterans & New Leadership

• Veterans are cited as a particularly active segment:
  • "We see especially strong interest among veterans as voters and increasingly as candidates. Indeed, Independent Veterans of America was founded to support candidates that are providing the kind of strong, authentic leadership America is looking for." ([04:40] Updike)

5. Historic Impact: The Ross Perot Effect

• The establishment’s persistent dismissal of independents stems from lessons learned in the past:
  • "Two words: Ross Perot." ([05:17] Updike)
  • In 1992, Perot’s 20% of the popular vote was driven by "an explosion of independent volunteers condemning the major parties for ignoring their economic and political concerns."
  • Though he didn’t win electoral votes, Perot "drove the Clinton Gingrich policy process for a decade," resulting in a balanced budget and political triangulation.
  • The number of independents has doubled since Perot’s run, but "efforts to marginalize independents have doubled as well."

6. Pushback Against Leaners & 'Spoiler' Arguments

• The "leaner" and "spoiler" labels are seen as tactics to maintain party dominance and "prevent another Perot explosion."
  • "The hidden message of the spoiler argument is that votes belong to the parties, not to the people." ([02:30] Updike)
• Independents switch affiliation purposefully: "Every week, 10,000 Americans switch their registration from D or R to I. And they do so for a reason. They want to be part of a new political conversation, not perpetrators of partisan demonization." ([06:30] Updike)

7. Independents Shaping Policy & Culture

• Independents have been key to recent presidential outcomes: "providing significant margins to Obama, then Trump, then Biden, and back to Trump."
• "Independents are ready to lead," inviting listeners to "remind people that independents are the people’s champion." ([07:40] Updike)
• Rieckhoff closes with a call to action, asking listeners to share the episode and join the movement.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Why The Establishment Resists

“Why spend so much energy insisting [independents] don't matter? Lots of things don't matter. They tend to attract battalions of academics and powerful pundits to convince us—why such stridency? Two words: Ross Perot.”
— John Updike, 00:30 & 05:17

On the Media & Spoiler Accusations

“These same experts also assert that we independents who run for office are ‘spoilers who siphon off votes away from legitimate candidates.’ Now this is not simply derogatory. The hidden message of the spoiler argument is that votes belong to the parties, not to the people.”
— John Updike, 02:30

On Independent Power

“We're not just moving the needle. We're—we are the needle.”
— Paul Rieckhoff, 02:16 & 07:40

“Independents are ready to lead and if you listen to this show, if you watch the show, you are among those independents that are ready to lead or you're independent-curious.”
— Paul Rieckhoff, 07:10

"Independents are the people’s champion. We’re not moving the needle. We are the needle."
— Paul Rieckhoff, 07:40

On Historical Precedent

“The Perot explosion—a multi-ideological independent movement—produced a balanced budget, the Contract with America, and Clintonian triangulation. The D.C. crowd, completely caught off guard by 20 million Americans going off script, has never forgotten.”
— John Updike, 05:17

On Political Re-Alignment

“Every week, 10,000 Americans switch their registration from D or R to I. And they do so for a reason. They want to be part of a new political conversation, not perpetrators of partisan demonization.”
— John Updike, 06:30

Key Timestamps for Segments

• 00:30–01:19 — John Updike’s opening questions and historical context
• 01:19–02:19 — Rieckhoff introduces the magnitude of the Gallup poll and episode theme
• 02:30–04:00 — Media narrative and the ‘leaners’ argument with Kristen Soltis Anderson’s quote
• 04:00–05:20 — New narrative, independent organizing, and the veteran factor
• 05:17–06:00 — Ross Perot’s explosion and its aftermath
• 06:00–07:40 — The continued rise in independent affiliation, pushback against 'spoiler' label, invitation to join the movement
• 08:22–08:44 — Closing call to action / movement invitation
• 08:50–end — Poetic postscript on the independent attitude

Final Thoughts

This episode vigorously contests the conventional wisdom that independents don’t matter or are just “leaners.” It makes a strong case—historically and with fresh polling—that independents are driving American politics and will likely continue to do so. Rieckhoff and Updike encourage listeners to not just identify as independents but to think of themselves as political change makers—champions for a new, less polarized America.

This concise episode is a manifesto for independent-minded Americans, championing their growing influence and underscoring their role as central—not peripheral—to the nation’s political future.