The Forever War Machine Shifts Its Sights to Cuba. Hegseth and Trump Want the Focus Off of Iran.

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Independent Americans with Paul Rieckhoff

Episode: The Forever War Machine Shifts Its Sights to Cuba. Hegseth and Trump Want the Focus Off of Iran.

Date: May 4, 2026
Host: Paul Rieckhoff
Guests: Michael Knowles, Pete Hegseth

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Overview

In this episode, Paul Rieckhoff moderates a sharp and timely discussion with Michael Knowles and Pete Hegseth, focusing on America’s shifting foreign policy priorities. The conversation zeroes in on the debate over overseas military deployments, the continued unpopularity of endless wars, political maneuvering around Iran, and speculation about a renewed focus on Cuba. The hosts and guests explore public opinion, the motivations of political leaders (including Donald Trump), and the evolving landscape for independents and third-party voters.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Role of U.S. Troops in Germany and European Security

• The episode opens with an urgent discussion about Trump’s threat to withdraw troops from Germany ([00:01]–[00:13]).
  • Michael Knowles highlights the long-standing strategic role of U.S. bases in Germany as a bulwark against Russia.
  • Pete Hegseth emphasizes the importance of American military hospitals and large-scale bases in Germany, calling them among “the most important in the world.”

Quote:

“Because it’s there to block against the Russians. I mean, this is like the most basic.”—Michael Knowles [00:06]
“Some of our biggest military bases in the world, most important in the world, are in Germany.”—Pete Hegseth [00:13]

2. Public Sentiment Against Foreign Wars and Accountability

• Michael Knowles comments on consistently negative polling for ongoing foreign wars, arguing that commitment from the country must come before deploying troops ([00:39]–[01:41]).
• Discussion underscores the lessons unlearned from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam, and current frustrations about the U.S. role in Iran.

Quote:

“Wars don’t get more popular over time. He knows that. He served in one of them. We both served in a war that was unpopular and over time they get less popular. …You have to commit the country first before you commit the troops. Every time you get it backwards, we get into trouble.”—Michael Knowles [00:51]

• Rising oil prices, ongoing casualties, and a sense of endless conflict fuel voters’ discontent.
• Knowles calls for greater accountability for leaders like Hegseth, noting that current hearings offer a glimpse of overdue scrutiny ([01:41]).

3. The Political Pivot from Iran to Cuba and Venezuela

• The narrative tracks how political actors (particularly Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump) aim to redirect focus from deadlocked or unpopular wars in Iran toward Cuba and Venezuela ([01:41]–[02:24]).
• Knowles casts skepticism on equating Iran with Venezuela, suggesting that the administration wants to reframe the conversation by painting past Venezuela actions as victories and shifting the “win momentum” to Cuba.

Quote:

“He keeps comparing Iran to Venezuela that people will think it’s a win. That’s why he keeps doing it now. He wants to keep that momentum up and roll on into Cuba.”—Michael Knowles [01:49]

4. Eroding American Security and Domestic Stability

• The guests grapple with the fact that, despite massive expenditures and sprawling overseas presences, Americans don’t feel safer ([02:27]–[02:58]).
• Security anxieties now encompass homegrown terrorism as well as traditional foreign threats.

Quote:

“They don’t feel safer with troops overseas. They feel this instability from the domestic terrorism threat and from the political violence...”—Michael Knowles [02:38]
“It’s not just foreign terrorism now. It’s homegrown terrorism and someone with a gun wanting to come in and shoot a bunch of people up. So the worries just keep on, compounding…”—Pete Hegseth [03:01]

• The temporary shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) exacerbates these fears.

5. The Rise of Independents and Voter Realignment

• Knowles presents polling data showing a huge swath—up to 45%—of Americans now identify as independent; this trend is even stronger among young voters ([03:16]).
• The discussion highlights how swing states and political races (such as Maine’s Senate contest) may hinge on these independent voters, moving away from rigid party loyalties.

Quote:

“The future is actually none of the above. And that’s where I see move. And who can buy for those independents? They’re overwhelmingly against the Arch and against knocking down the White House and against Iran. And they are the voters that people have to try to contend for.”—Michael Knowles [03:16]

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Most Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• On Foreign Policy Fatigue:
  “Most Americans are asking what are we getting in two months? What are we getting for $25 billion? And we don’t feel safer. Our oil prices are going up, gas prices are going up. We lost, you know, over over a dozen Americans, and there’s no end in sight.”—Michael Knowles [00:51]

• On Political Theater and Accountability:
  “Finally, this seems to be a level of accountability he’s never had before. So yesterday, today, I think, is actually day for democracy. These are the type of hearings we should have had two months ago, and maybe we should start having them now on Cuba.”—Michael Knowles [00:51]

• On Changing Political Demographics:
  “60% of young people are unaffiliated independents. The future is actually none of the above.”—Michael Knowles [03:16]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:01–00:18 — The stakes of Germany troop withdrawal and military infrastructure
• 00:39–01:41 — Unpopularity of endless wars, public opinion, and accountability in Congress
• 01:41–02:24 — A political pivot: From Iran to Venezuela and Cuba
• 02:27–02:58 — Americans’ feelings of insecurity and threats at home
• 03:01–03:16 — Expanding concerns: Domestic terrorism and security breakdowns
• 03:16–04:05 — The independent voter surge and implications for political races

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Tone and Atmosphere

• The conversation is frank, urgent, and sometimes frustrated, with Knowles and Hegseth bringing direct experience and skepticism.
• The tone reflects weariness with status quo foreign policy, deep frustration with lack of accountability, and hope for a realignment rooted in independent thinking.

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This episode is invaluable for listeners seeking insight into America’s evolving global stance, the politics of endless war, mounting public backlash, and the ascendancy of independent voters. The guests’ firsthand experience and analytical candor deliver a sobering, clarifying commentary for the “angry middle” and those weary of partisan spin.

Transcript

[Michael Knowles]

He's now threatening to pull troops out of Germany and Germany.

[Pete Hegseth]

Remind us why Germany is so important.

[Michael Knowles]

Because it's there to block against the Russians. I mean, this is like the most basic.

[Pete Hegseth]

We also have a military hospital that we use quite a bit.

[Michael Knowles]

And there's that as well.

[Pete Hegseth]

Some of our biggest military bases in the world, most important in the world, are in Germany.

[Michael Knowles]

Yeah, I mean, this is the framework that has kept America secure for generations. So I think your point is an important one, and I think Americans don't feel safer.

[Pete Hegseth]

PAUL Pete Hegseth denies the American public doesn't support the war. The polling has shown consistently, consistently there has not been a deviation. They do not support this and it

[Michael Knowles]

hasn't gotten better and it's going to get worse. Wars don't get more popular over time. He knows that. He served in one of them. We both served in a war that was unpopular and over time they get less popular. This is, I think, maybe one of the most important questions from the start. You have to commit the country first before you commit the troops. Every time you get it backwards, we get into trouble from Afghanistan to Iraq to Vietnam and now again to Iran. I think most Americans are asking what are we getting in two months? What are we getting for $25 billion? And we don't feel safer. Our oil prices are going up, gas prices are going up. We lost, you know, over over a dozen Americans, and there's no end in sight. So Hegseth is on the ropes appropriately. And finally, this seems to be a level of accountability he's never had before. So yesterday, today, I think, is actually day for democracy. These are the type of hearings we should have had two months ago, and maybe we should start having them now on Cuba, because they're already talking about doing that next.

[Pete Hegseth]

PETE hegseth, Political appointee, though, in the military. So somebody had to give him an honest assessment that Venezuela and Iran are not the same, right?

[Michael Knowles]

I hope so. I think what he wants to talk the reason why he wants to talk about Venezuela is because he views it as a win. He thinks he keeps comparing Iran to Venezuela that people will think it's a win. That's why he keeps doing it now. He wants to keep that momentum up and roll on into Cuba. I think, first of all, that was just so incredib painful to watch. And as we sit here, I never want to normalize how ridiculous so much of that is. But I think your breaking news headline is actually very important to our national security because he continues to drive away our allies. We have an army base that you served on in Italy. We put naval destroyers in Spain. He's now threatening to pull troops out of Germany.

[Pete Hegseth]

And Germany. Remind us why Germany is so important.

[Michael Knowles]

Because it's there to block against the Russians. I mean, this is like the most basic.

[Pete Hegseth]

We also have a military hospital that we use quite a bit.

[Michael Knowles]

And there's that as well.

[Pete Hegseth]

Some of our biggest military bases in the world, important in the world, are in Germany.

[Michael Knowles]

Yeah. I mean, this is the framework that has kept America secure for generations. So I think your point is an important one. And I think Americans don't feel safer. They don't feel safer with troops overseas. They feel this instability from the domestic terrorism threat and from the political violence. And they're always worried about Iranian proxy. I think everybody walks up the door and goes to a big baseball game or goes to a big crowd has got that in the back of their head.

[Pete Hegseth]

Yeah.

[Michael Knowles]

And DHS was just shut down for two months. That didn't help me.

[Pete Hegseth]

It's not just foreign terrorism now. It's homegrown terrorism and someone with a gun wanting to come in and shoot a bunch of people up. So the worries just keep on, compounding movement that supports this in surprising places, maybe states that Democrats had at one point written off.

[Michael Knowles]

I think the bigger trend is that the country's sick of all of them. Now, Trump is unique, right? And I think the number he has to focus on is 430, because it's 430 a gallon right now. And that's what most Americans care about more than anything else. But 27% of the country is Republicans, 27% is Democrats, 45% is independents. 60% of young people are unaffiliated independents. The future is actually none of the above. And that's where I see move. And who can buy for those independents? They're overwhelmingly against the Arch and against knocking down the White House and against Iran. And they are the voters that people have to try to contend for. So a place like Maine, where now, you know, Graham Pletner has a more open field against Susan Collins, that will

[Pete Hegseth]

help Janet Mills dropped out.

[Michael Knowles]

Yeah, that will help us find out. And the real battle there is for independence. You know, can someone win the independence in that state? And is it going to be Graham Plitner or is it going to be Susan Collins?

[Podcast Announcer]

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[Michael Knowles]

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[Michael Knowles]

It really does help the show to grow.

[Podcast Announcer]

Thank you for listening.