Trump Plummets in Polls with Independents, $5 Gas, and War With Iran He Can't Spin.

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Independent Americans with Paul Rieckhoff

Episode 529: Trump Plummets in Polls with Independents, $5 Gas, and War With Iran He Can't Spin
Date: May 21, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this episode, host Paul Rieckhoff delivers a “quickfire” mashup of his appearances on two TV networks—one left-leaning (MSNBC) and one right-leaning (NewsNation)—offering sharp analysis and unfiltered commentary on the state of U.S. politics, national security, and cultural issues as the country heads into Memorial Day weekend. Some of the core topics: Trump’s cratering support among independents, outrageously high gas prices linked to war with Iran, growing threats of more foreign entanglements, and the crumbling two-party system as independent voters and politicians disrupt old paradigms. The episode also recognizes Stephen Colbert’s final show and touches on the buzz in NYC as the Knicks advance in the playoffs.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Rise and Power of Independents

• Independents' Growing Clout:
  • Rieckhoff emphasizes that 45% of voters now identify as independent or unaffiliated, dwarfing both Republicans and Democrats, who each claim only about 27%.

    “45% of the country is independent and unaffiliated. Most of them haven't voted in the primaries... Only 27% are Republican, 27% are Democrats.” (09:47)

• Spoiler Narrative Reversal:
  • The “spoiler” accusation against independents is rejected, as in several upcoming Senate races, independent candidates are polling higher than Republicans or Democrats.

    “Democrats are the spoiler there. They're actually polling much lower than the independent candidates... The Republicans and the Democrats increasingly are becoming the spoilers. And I would argue they spoiled our entire democracy.” (01:30, 15:02)

• Disdain for the Two Parties:
  • Americans, especially young voters, are rejecting traditional party structures, viewing them as “corrupt, antiquated and...ineffective.”

    “The future is sick of the Democrats, sick of the Republicans...many people have called them politically homeless. I would say they're politically free.” (12:05)

• New Electoral Mechanics:
  • Open primaries and ranked choice voting are opening doors for independents:

    “Especially if you can get open primaries, if you can get ranked choice voting. California...there will be an open primary. So it's entirely open for millions of independents who can now vote in that primary.” (15:32)

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2. Trump’s Crumbling Base and the Role of War

• Trump’s Plummeting Polls:
  • Trump’s numbers, especially among independents, are described as “brutal”—down in the 20s—due to a lethal mix of policy and perception failures.

    “The fallout from the President's numbers...in particular that figure with independents, I mean, he's in the 20s. With independents, it's bad.” (09:35)

  • Memorial Day serves as a reminder of the human costs of war and the political price Trump is paying for military entanglements.

    “Memorial Day is coming up. That's going to be a reminder about the human cost of war...gas prices, over five bucks a gallon in some states, and he's talking about more war.” (10:09)

  • Increasing gas prices, specifically above $5/gallon, are directly tied to dissatisfaction over the Iran conflict and contribute to Trump’s declining approval.

    “Gas prices are over five bucks a gallon in some states and people are gonna be reminded that this war is ongoing...They don't think it's worth it. And he can't spin his way out of it.” (08:14)

• Foreign Policy & Rumors of More Conflict:
  • Rieckhoff warns that Trump is telegraphing a possible intervention in Cuba, despite poor polling on foreign wars.

    “They moved a carrier over there now and it looks like they will. The question is, will it be before or after July 4th?” (11:01)

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3. January 6th, Corruption, and the Breakdown of Law

• Trump’s Support for January 6th Defendants:
  • Trump is accused of incentivizing extremism by proposing a fund to aid January 6th insurrectionists.

    “They're trying to rewrite history...repeat history. They want to incentivize people to do the same thing in advance of the elections this fall...If you stand with Trump against his government, he'll have your back. It's a green light.” (04:09)

• Collapse of Party Cohesion:
  • Increasing numbers of GOP lawmakers who pushed back on Trump are sidelined or expelled, but some, like Thomas Massie, may use this to build independent brands.

    “Everyone that stood up Donald Trump now has pretty much gotten thrown out. Thomas Massie gone, Bill Cassidy, they're going to be gone soon. The ones that got a conscience and didn't want to deal with this any longer are willingly leaving.” (06:21)

  • Republican dissent on foreign policy votes (e.g., Iran) is growing.

    “You've got four Republicans that have broken with Trump on Iran. And there could be more each day...” (06:53)

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4. Disdain for the Political System & The “Politically Free”

• Widespread Dissatisfaction:
  • Polls reflect deep dissatisfaction with both major parties; independents are the fastest growing demographic.

    “America doesn't like either of them. More and more people are walking out of both parties. Young people...over 60% of young people aren't registering with either party.” (12:05)

• Independent Attitude:
  • Independence is framed as an attitude, not just a political category.

    “Independent is an attitude and I think it's what the future looks like. People are rejecting the status quo across the board.” (12:36)

• Populist Appeal and Third Way Potential:
  • The episode discusses the viability of high-profile third-party or independent candidacies, including the hypothetical of Thomas Massie running as a libertarian-leaning outsider.

    “He's against the war in Iran, he's against the tariffs, he wants the release of the Epstein files, and he's critical of Trump. Those four things alone make a pretty popular presidential candidate, beyond partisan affiliations.” (14:21)

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5. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Independent Momentum:

  “The Republicans and the Democrats increasingly are becoming the spoilers. And I would argue they spoiled our entire democracy, they've spoiled the entire system.” (15:02)

• On Trump’s Strategy:

  “Plan A is the military and trying to invoke the Insurrection Act...This is Plan C. This is the angry mob...saying if you go out and you have my back, I will have yours and you will not be held accountable.” (05:43)

• Human Cost and Political Spin:

  “Americans are going to drive a lot...and they're feeling it more and more. They don't think it's worth it. And he can't spin his way out of it.” (08:14)

• On Political Homelessness:

  “Many people have called them politically homeless. I would say they're politically free.” (12:05)

• On the Future of Voting:

  “If you can get open primaries, if you can get ranked choice voting...that's gonna be a good indicator of what the future could look like.” (15:32)

• Cultural Lightness:

  • Rieckhoff references the Knicks playoff run and praises Stephen Colbert’s legacy as a boost against political darkness.

    “He's a true class act, a guy who has always added light to contrast the heat.” (03:11)
    “I'm betting on the Knicks, too. I think the Knicks are surging, and Jalen Brunson is a leader that we can all bank on.” (16:49)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:30–02:09]—Independents outpolling traditional parties in key states
• [04:09–04:55]—Trump and the January 6th fund: “rewriting history”
• [06:21–07:25]—GOP infighting, Massie’s role, and breaks over Iran votes
• [09:35–10:09]—Trump’s collapsing numbers with independents
• [10:09–11:01]—Memorial Day, war fatigue, and $5 gas
• [12:05–12:46]—Young voters, political “homelessness,” and the new independent majority
• [15:02–16:08]—The “spoiler” myth and emerging primary models
• [16:45–16:55]—Knicks as a metaphor: “leader we can bank on”

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Tone and Takeaways

• The language is frank, passionate, and occasionally biting—reflecting frustration with the status quo and hope for independent, uncorrupted leadership.
• Rieckhoff and guests are skeptical of both major parties, scathingly critical of Trump’s latest maneuvers, but ultimately optimistic about the rise of independence and diversity in U.S. politics.
• The call to action: Be vigilant, question both parties, and embrace the growing independent movement as America enters a pivotal election cycle.

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Transcript

[Bus Driver]

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[Political Analyst]

that is often kind of a slander against independents. If you look at, for example, the Senate races that are happening in Nebraska, in Montana, in South Dakota, the Democrats are the spoiler there. They're actually polling much lower than the independent candidates. And you see that in other places as well. In California, Republicans are actually polling lower than independents are. So the Republicans and the Democrats increasingly are becoming the spoilers. And I would argue they spoiled our entire democracy.

[Paul Rykoff]

Welcome to Independent Americans. Welcome to episode 529. I'm your host, Paul Rekoff. It is a wild day of news, national security, politics, culture, and I'm going to do something different. Not a full podcast today. I'm going to give you a couple of quick highlights from two media hits that I did early today. One on ms, now that's a little left of center, and one on News Nation that's a little right of center. I'm talking about Iran. I'm talking about Trump's fund for January 6th insurrectionist. I'm talking about the Knicks a little bit and a lot more. But there's a lot happening. I'm here in Midtown Manhattan. You can see the Chrysler Building up there. The Knicks are getting ready to play in a couple of hours. The city is buzzing, but there's a lot happening that you need to know about. To help yourself stay vigilant. I'm going to mix it up because this podcast is different. We're going to break the walls. We're going to break the norms. We're not just going to be in a studio or behind a desk. I'm going to take you out in the streets and going to try to

[Political Analyst]

keep you ahead of what's happening and

[Paul Rykoff]

not just what's happening now, but what's happening next. So here it is, a special media highlights quickfire episode of Independent Americans that I hope you enjoy. Also want to give a big shout out to Stephen Colbert. It's his last show tonight. I'll have more tomorrow. But he's a true class act, a guy who has always added light to contrast the heat. And I've known him for over 20 years, way below the radar. He's done a lot to support our troops and veterans. And it's especially important as we're only a couple days away from Memorial Day. So here it is, special episode of Independent Americans. If you like what you Hear, subscribe on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, everywhere else. And I hope this helps you stay vigilant.

[Political Commentator]

Dollars from the federal government. Lindell says he lost 400 million. Enrique Tario wants 2 to 5 million dollars. Again, this is taxpayer money.

[Political Analyst]

I think they're trying to do two things. They're trying to rewrite history. They're trying to erase January 6th and rewrite the way the entire thing is framed for the history books and for the country. And they're trying to repeat history. They want to incentivize people to do the same thing in advance of the elections this fall. And I think that's the right thing to focus on because that's the circuit breaker. That's the whole ball game. And he's made it very clear that he wants to disrupt the elections. He has no intent of having free and fair elections. And this incentivizes anybody who's thinking about doing something violent against the government. Go ahead and do it. Trump will have your back. If you stand with Trump against his government, he'll have your back. It's a green light. And I think it's maybe the most important thing for us to focus on because the Democrats assume there will be free and fair elections. I don't assume that. I think it's the thing we have to focus on because it's the most immediate circuit breaker and slowing him down and stopping him from doing much worse.

[Political Commentator]

Talk about that next hour. There's there was apparently a big meeting with Senate Republicans and Todd Blanche. It did not go well. Alex, you were alluding to that a little bit earlier. Punchbowl has been reporting on it and we've got Jake Sherman next hour to really flush out. So. So stay tuned for that. Paul, in terms of litigating this politically on the campaign trail, what is the message that Democrats and independents should use regarding what we're seeing here? The problem with Donald Trump in the last year and a half is that there are so many different arguments of corruption. Examples potentially of corruption, examples of self dealing potentially. I keep saying potentially. There's so many different things. It's hard to keep track of any one of them. You get lost in the so loss.

[Political Analyst]

But the overall message of corruption is sticking.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Yeah.

[Political Analyst]

And I think that's where you see populism really rising up and especially Republicans and independents breaking the seal. And they're very, very angry. If you're not angry about this, you're not paying attention. This is what corruption looks like. But I also think it's something else. It's Plan C. If he wants to attack free and fair elections, which I believe he does because he knows they will hold him accountable. Plan A is the military and trying to invoke the Insurrection Act. If he gets no on that, he goes to ice. Steve Bannon and others said they'll use ice. This is Plan C. This is the angry mob sicking them out there, saying if you go out and you have my back, I will have yours and you will not be held accountable. And that is, I think, strategically what he continues to focus on and what we all need to continue to focus on.

[Political Commentator]

So we see this. But in terms of lawmakers, everyone that stood up Donald Trump now has pretty much gotten thrown out. Thomas Massie gone, Bill Cassidy, they're going to be gone soon. The ones that got a conscience and didn't want to deal with this any longer are willingly leaving. Marjorie Taylor Greene willingly left, but also

[Political Analyst]

elevated and in some ways even more powerful because they have more appeal, they have more name recognition. I mean, we've been talking about Thomas Massie all week. And now he has a unique lane either within the Republican Party or to

[Political Commentator]

break about Marjorie Taylor Greene.

[Political Analyst]

No, but she's talking about, you know, she's appealing to people in a way she couldn't before. And I think you have an empowered group that are free now. I mean, you think Massie was tough on Trump before. Now all the gloves are off. And now you see someone like Cassidy who actually broke with Trump on the Iran vote this week, now You've got four Republicans that have broken with Trump on Iran. And there could be more each day, especially as the midterms come closer and some someone like Susan Collins is in deeper water. So I do think you see these pieces starting to shave off within his party and outside of his party. And I think they're stacking up, especially on key votes like Iran and if he wants to get a defense budget through at the end of the year.

[Political Commentator]

All right, we're going to talk more about that next hour.

[Paul Rykoff]

You're right. In Israel, in my opinion, I'm right now at 99% in Israel.

[Political Analyst]

I could run for prime minister.

[Paul Rykoff]

So maybe after I do this, I'll

[Political Analyst]

go to Israel, run for prime minister.

[Paul Rykoff]

At a poll this morning, I'm 99%.

[Political Commentator]

I was, I had a question, but then I heard the end of that. And I don't really know what to do with that, why he is so. Okay, I'm going to leave it aside. In terms of Netanyahu, is this a situation of be careful what you wish for? He wanted Donald Trump to go to war with him. He got him to go to war with him. Couldn't convince any other American president to do this. Could convince Donald Trump. And now Donald Trump might kind of leave him hanging and in a worse off position with Iran still having a regime and nuclear weapons and angrier than they were before.

[Political Analyst]

Yeah, nobody can trust Donald Trump, even Netanyahu. But I think there's something bigger at play here. We're going to get a huge reminder of how unpopular this war is this weekend because the country doesn't like this war and it's getting worse by the day. And this weekend we're going to have Memorial Day. We're going to be reminded about the human cost of war and how he dismissed the fact that 13 service members were killed in this war. And Americans are going to drive a lot of. And gas prices are over five bucks a gallon in some states and people are gonna be reminded that this war is ongoing and their gas prices are going up and they're feeling it more and more. They don't think it's worth it. And he can't spin his way out of it. I do think he's getting shackled by his association with Israel and his association with Netanyahu. You see Republicans especially distancing themselves from that. So he wants to show that he's not being pushed around. But the reality is the polls are pushing him around and they're just getting worse by the day. And this weekend's Gonna make it worse.

[Political Commentator]

Yeah. I'm not sure that saying you can run for prime minister in Israel and win because you're so popular there really gets you far from the Israel issue if you, if you need to. And your base doesn't like it, which they don't.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Now let's head over to Paul Rykoff, host of the Independent Americans podcast, to talk about all of this. Good to see you.

[Political Analyst]

Good to see you, man.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Although I think we'd probably rather be Talking about Game 2 of the Knicks and Cavs tonight.

[Political Analyst]

That would be fun. That would be a good segment. A lot more fun than this.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Big thought.

[Political Analyst]

This is important. We gotta get to it.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

That game the other night, my God, the fallout from the President's numbers, which we talk about all the time, but in particular that figure with independence, I mean, he's in the 20s. With independence, it's bad.

[Political Analyst]

I mean, especially as you go into the midterms. I remind everybody, 45% of the country is independent and unaffiliated. Most of them haven't voted in the primaries that we've seen happening over the last couple of months. Only 27% are Republican, 27% are Democrats. Now, Democrats are generally less popular than Trump, but Trump's going downhill fast. And I think it's about to get worse for a couple reasons. Number one, Memorial Day is coming up.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Okay.

[Political Analyst]

That's going to be a reminder about the human cost of war. And to people who don't like fore wars and don't like what's happening in Iran, and they're gonna be driving a lot. That's gonna remind them about the high gas prices, over five bucks a gallon in some states, and he's talking about more war. Cuba is looming over the horizon. We don't know when and if this is gonna happen. But those three things I think are gonna come together and drive his poll numbers down even further, which is a really bad element for all the other Republicans. And we're also seeing people leave the Republican Party. I think that's important too. 10,000 people leave the Republican and Democratic Party every single week. And I think the attacks on Tom Massey are gonna drive more especially out of the party, which is bad for the Republicans.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

It is interesting and you're right, his numbers are brutal, by the way, Cuba. You think we are going to war with Cuba? That wouldn't be popular either, according to the polling. I know maybe it would be in Florida, but the polling on that's not great either.

[Political Analyst]

Is that where it hasn't stopped Trump so far? I Mean, he also hit Nigeria this week, which most folks didn't track on. But none of this is popular. Foreign wars are not popular. Regime change is not popular. Spending all this money is not popular. But yes, I think it's more likely than not that he's going to Cuba. They've telegraphed all their punches already and I think they're putting out a lot of signs. They moved a carrier over there now and it looks like they will. The question is, will it be before or after July 4th? If I had to put money on it, I'd say it's probably gonna be at a time when Congress is not in session because he's getting even more pushback on Iran and he doesn't want pushback on Cuba.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Right. So what I was about to say is you have all these things, right? And all these numbers and all these unpopular policies by the numbers, people say they don't like them. Okay, now you look at this for Democrats. I was just talking to Congressman Levitt about this. But this applies to you as well, because in general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied? Satisfied. With the Democratic Party. And again on the independents. Okay, so Dem leaning independents, they're only at 31. All right, so it's not, you know, it's not like the other party's taking advantage. They may at the election, you know, in the booth, but they're not right now by the numbers, that's America.

[Political Analyst]

America doesn't like either of them. Right. And more and more people are walking out of both parties. Young people, I think, is really an important indicator. Over 60% of young people aren't registering with either party. This is what the future looks like. The future is sick of the Democrats, sick of the Republicans. They're sick of extreme, extreme policies from Trump and extreme policies from Mandani. Many people have called them politically homeless. I would say they're politically free. They don't wanna be lined up with these parties that they view as corrupt, antiquated and just most of all ineffective. They're not bringing.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Is it an issues thing or is it an attitude thing?

[Political Analyst]

I think it's.

[Paul Rykoff]

I say this a lot.

[Political Analyst]

Independent is an attitude and I think it's what the future looks like. People are rejecting the status quo across the board on everything from NATO to the UN to traditional soda brands.

[Paul Rykoff]

Right.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Well, it's like anti institution then.

[Political Analyst]

Anti institution, anti establishment. But also just. I think the new gener Russia is used to having more choices. It's not just Coke versus Pepsi anymore. You know, in 2026 we have a lot of choices online. We have a lot of choices around the world. And I think people are really looking for leaders, too, who are willing to run against all those things, stand up for them on populous issues like gas prices and foreign wars, and just be real. I think they're looking for politicians who aren't bought, who aren't real, and who aren't partisan.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

That Democratic National Committee autopsy, I don't know if you. I didn't read the whole thing either. I read a summary of it. It's like 190 pages. That was a mess, too. I mean, but I guess we knew that already. We knew it was a mess, but maybe it was a bigger mess. And just the idea that they couldn't even put up a report together about it for this long, and even when they did, it wasn't great. Again, they have their issues.

[Political Analyst]

I think it shows why people view the Democratic Party as corrupt, too. They can't even release their own autopsy. Right, to their own donors, to their own voters, to their own supporters. This is why people are leaving the Republican Party, but not necessarily joining the Democratic Party. And they're leaving the Democratic Party and they're not joining the Republican Party. And I think this is a massive jump ball. And I would point to Tom Massie this week, right? Yeah. Massie was actually elevated by attacks by Trump. We were talking about him all week long, and he talked. He kind of hinted that he might run for president. People want him to run for president. Now, he could run within the Republican Party or he could break off and try to take a third away, which would be popular, at least with a significant percentage of the population.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Would it, though? That's an interesting question, because, like, you, you say you're an independent. I don't think you and Massie agree on very much. You know.

[Political Analyst]

No, but I think, again, if he's running against the parties, that's enough to have a lot of people agree with him.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

That's the whole point about attitude.

[Political Analyst]

And I think that he's a libertarian, right, like Rand Paul and others who've run for president. But I think he has a very simple platform that's kind of cut and paste. He's against the war in Iran, he's against the tariffs, he wants the release of the Epstein files, and he's critical of Trump. Those four things alone make a pretty popular presidential candidate, beyond partisan affiliations. And his name recognition is very high. I think he could raise a lot of money, and I think he's gonna be on the playing field when it comes down to it in 2028.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

But at the end of the day, we've covered so many elections over the years, those candidates always become spoilers, for better or worse. Now maybe that changes one day, but we ask it every time and it's still. And I mean, I personally don't see that changing anytime soon. You would like it to change?

[Paul Rykoff]

No.

[Political Analyst]

I think it's important to note that is often kind of a slander against independents. If you look at, for example, the Senate races that are happening in Nebraska, in Montana, in South Dakota, the Democrats are the spoiler there. They're actually polling much lower than the independent candidates. And you see that in other places as well. In California, Republicans are actually polling lower than independents are. So the Republicans and the Democrats increasingly are becoming the spoilers. And I would argue they've spoiled our entire democracy, They've spoiled the entire system.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

So a lot of people think that. But this idea, there's gonna be like a third way and it's gonna save.

[Political Analyst]

It's happening, it's happening. Especially if you can get open primaries, if you can get ranked choice voting. California, for example, is gonna be very interesting. January, June 2nd, there will be an open primary. So it's entirely open for millions of independents who can now vote in that primary. And the top two vote getters, regardless of party, are gonna be the ones that advance. And that's gonna be a good indicator of what the future could look like.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Well, that is an interest. Well, that's interesting for a bunch of reasons. And one of them is like the people in the parties were like, well, this might not be a great idea. Democratic Party especially, say in California, so that big Democratic state. And they're like, well, what if two Republicans finished one too? Now it doesn't look like it was gonna happen, but for a while it did. And they were like, forget this, we gotta get.

[Political Analyst]

This is why both parties attack independence, because they're really a threat. On my show this week, I talk to Karen Matthews, who's running in California's 23rd district. Okay, it's kind of a Reagan Republican district. She's got a chance to be the number two ahead of all the Democrats. She is positioning herself as the moderate option for people who don't want an incumbent. That's too far to the right. Right now she's polling neck and neck with the Democrats. She could beat the Democrats in that district. The Democrats, the spoiler if they got out of the way, then you'd see a head to head race between a Navy veteran who's a doctor against a Republican incumbent who's also not a veteran. That's when it gets really interesting, when the when the playing field is leveled, independence can compete, and that's happening more and more.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

I think the Knicks go up two games to none. They win the first two, you're in. You're in business.

[Political Analyst]

I'm betting on the Knicks, too. I think the Knicks are surging, and Jalen Brunson is a leader that we can all bank on.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

That guy could have been mayor here

[Political Analyst]

without a He definitely would have beat everybody else who ran for sure. He could be king by the end of this week.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

As an independent, he would have wanted a landslide. All right, Paul Rykoff, thank you.

[Political Analyst]

Thank you.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Independent Americans Podcast wherever you get your

[Poet/Artist]

Tells me the left and right are dreams for those without a clue and when you wake it's time to grow and it's not cool to believe in school but if I can say one thing I've seen the children of the revolution and the good trouble they can bring he says the red and blue are dead and independent is an attitude an island in the sea of rhetoric and not to rally go he tells me the lady left and right our dreams for those without a clue and when you wait it's time to grow

[Political Analyst]

Power by Righteous Media.

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[Political Analyst]

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