Independent Americans with Paul Rieckhoff
Episode 408: “Why Hasn’t Ukraine Killed Putin?” with Tim Mak
Date: January 8, 2026
Guest: Tim Mak, founder of The Counteroffensive, investigative correspondent, Army veteran
Location: Paul in New York City, Tim live from Kyiv, Ukraine
Brief Overview
This episode dives deeply into the ongoing war in Ukraine from both a human and geopolitical perspective, with special attention paid to the discipline, innovation, and resilience of the Ukrainian people. Paul Rieckhoff is joined again by Tim Mak, acclaimed war reporter and founder of The Counteroffensive, who brings insights directly from Kyiv. Together, they dismantle recent narratives about Ukrainian attempts on Putin’s life, analyze America’s shifting global military posture under Trump, and discuss the transformational impact of the war on military innovation and democracy worldwide.
Major Discussion Points & Insights
1. Chaos in America & War Abroad (00:44–16:49)
- Paul opens with outrage at the shooting of Renee Nicole Good by ICE agents in Minneapolis, equating it to the infamous killing of George Floyd, and discusses law enforcement failures and lack of oversight.
- “The idea that these ICE agents couldn’t even do that just underscores how out of control they are, how undisciplined they are.” (06:07)
- Updates on escalating U.S. involvement in Venezuela; oil seizures by U.S. forces are raising global tensions and eroding trust in the American military.
2. The Global Ripple Effects: Venezuela, Iran, and Beyond (12:35–15:35)
- Paul connects U.S. actions in Venezuela to a pattern of power projection similar to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
- “It looks like Trump is snatching oil and he's using the American military as mercenaries. And that's not what we are.” (09:45)
- Iran’s significant pro-democracy protests are flagged as a potential turning point, with fears of further military escalation.
3. The Ukrainian War from the Human Side, with Tim Mak (15:29–22:14)
Tim Mak’s perspective from Kyiv:
- Life is harsh—recurring power outages, brutally cold weather, and attacks on infrastructure have made daily survival a challenge.
- Russian missile strikes target not only morale but basic utilities, pushing resilience to the limit.
- “It’s going to drop down to negative 21 Celsius next week... that's when Russia's going to strike. So there's this sense of anticipation in the air.” —Tim Mak (19:21)
- The global nature of the conflict is emphasized:
- Operations in Venezuela and seizures of Russian-flagged oil tankers are directly tied to the Kremlin’s war funding, revealing the interconnectedness of global energy markets.
4. Americans in Ukraine & The Battle for Democracy (22:14–25:50)
- U.S. volunteers (including veterans and others) continue to fight for Ukraine’s cause in the International Legion, underlining the war as a “battle for the future of democracy.”
- “What we're seeing in Ukraine is the battle for the future of democracy. It just happens to be taking place in Ukraine right now.” —Tim Mak (23:37)
- The contrast between U.S. governmental hesitancy and the “better version of America” represented by its volunteers is discussed.
5. Zelenskyy’s Unique Leadership & Survival (26:33–30:49)
- Zelenskyy is more popular abroad than at home; Ukrainians are highly critical domestically but fiercely unite behind their president when he is attacked by foreign leaders.
- “If anyone's gonna insult our elected officials, it's gonna be us... But every time there's been some sort of confrontation between Trump and Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy's ratings go way up.” —Tim Mak (27:30)
- Paul highlights the risk and miracle of Zelenskyy’s survival, questioning both American and Ukrainian reluctance to openly discuss targeting Putin.
6. The Psyop of Putin’s “Assassination Attempt” (30:49–33:11)
- Tim debunks rumors of Ukrainian assassination attempts on Putin:
- Putin told Trump he was the target of an attack—yet no evidence supports this. Tim theorizes it was psychological manipulation.
- “What we're actually seeing is a one person psyop between Putin and Trump.” —Tim Mak (31:16)
- Ukrainian discipline and the reality of operating under severe constraints.
- “The Ukrainians are able, over years, to develop their own long range strike capabilities… that’s astonishing.” —Tim Mak (33:00)
7. The Front Line of Military Innovation (39:18–41:42)
- Ukraine is now the world’s “battlefield laboratory” for defense tech—drones, electronic warfare, rapid tactical innovation.
- Over 80% of Russian casualties now caused by first-person view (FPV) drones developed in Ukraine.
- “Everything from the usage of drones at scale… now 80% of killed and wounded on the Russian side are being killed and wounded by first person view drones.” —Tim Mak (40:07)
- This innovation leap is not only shifting the war but redefining how America must think about modern conflict.
8. Trump’s Imperialist Doctrine & Global Instability (35:42–37:48)
- Tim compares Trump’s “entitlement” to dominate Latin America and extract resources to Russia’s own imperial mindset toward Ukraine.
- “The Trump administration's view of the world is pretty inherently imperialistic. It's about extraction... but it seems like neither in the case of Venezuela or in Ukraine... has done a lot of long term planning here.” —Tim Mak (36:10)
- Paul warns about ignoring the true costs—both financial and human—of military adventurism.
9. Human Resilience: Small Good Things Amidst War (43:45–46:16)
- Tim’s “something good”: appreciating basic utilities (light, heat, water) amid daily deprivation and danger.
- “My lights are on right now. There are a lot of hours during the day when my lights are not on and the heat is not working... So that's what I'm grateful for.” —Tim Mak (43:53)
- A call for reflection on Western prosperity and the forgotten sacrifices that underpin it.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Paul Rieckhoff (general challenges in the US):
- “Let's make sure we underscore that there are some ICE agents that are not doing the wrong thing. But from... the command climate from the president, this is out of control.” (11:56)
- Tim Mak (on Ukrainian fortitude):
- "As a foreign correspondent that covers wars, there's not gonna be any shortage of work... that's going to be a generational undertaking." (17:15)
- Tim Mak (on innovation):
- "Necessity is the mother of invention. Since the Ukrainians had their back up against the wall... they've used this battlefield... to develop new concepts that didn't exist three years ago." (39:18)
- Paul Rieckhoff (Zelenskyy’s leadership):
- "Every time I watch Zelensky, I think he's the most stoic, dynamic, disciplined leader I've ever seen, especially on the world stage—and in such contrast to Trump." (26:02)
- Tim Mak (daily gratitude):
- “The fact that right now I'm warm, the fact that I got the lights on, the fact that I got some drinking water and my faucet works, I gotta be grateful for that.” (44:06)
- Paul Rieckhoff (on U.S. in Venezuela):
- "It looks like Trump is snatching oil and he's using the American military as mercenaries. And that's not what we are." (09:45)
Important Timestamps
- 00:44 — Paul’s opening: American violence, Minneapolis and ICE
- 09:45 — U.S. military seizure of oil tankers: Venezuela update
- 17:11 — Tim Mak checks in from Kyiv: “I’m a little cold, but I’m doing all right”
- 19:21 — Effects of Russian infrastructure strikes, winter hardship
- 23:37 — International Legion: Americans & global volunteers fighting for Ukraine
- 27:30 — Zelenskyy’s paradoxical popularity, internal vs. external perceptions
- 31:16 — The so-called “assassination attempt” on Putin: “a one person psyop”
- 33:00 — Ukraine’s discipline, innovation: drone warfare and constraints
- 36:10 — Trump’s worldview as imperialist, lack of planning
- 39:18 — Ukraine as laboratory for military innovation
- 43:53 — Tim Mak’s gratitude for basic utilities: “something good”
- 46:16 — Closing thanks and reflections on American leadership
Tone and Style
The episode is candid, analytical, and often impassioned—with Paul’s signature veteran’s candor and Tim’s blend of on-the-ground realism and wry resilience. Both speakers blend personal anecdote and sharp policy critique, maintaining a balance of empathy, outrage, and careful hope. The focus on everyday resilience, democratic values, and the necessity of vigilance is underscored throughout.
Summary Takeaway
This episode uses Ukraine’s war as a prism for understanding not just military conflict, but global democracy, innovation, and American identity. Tim Mak’s reporting reminds listeners that struggle, adaptability, and gratitude for small things are fundamental to both survival and victory. From the discipline of Ukraine’s fighters to the recklessness of U.S. leaders, the episode calls for vigilance, humility, and renewed commitment to democratic values, wherever they are under threat.
For further reporting:
- Subscribe to The Counteroffensive (counteroffensive.news) and The Arsenal for continued human-focused war coverage and defense innovation updates.
- Follow Paul Rieckhoff and Independent Americans for daily episodes dissecting today’s most urgent news.