Industry Seating Podcast Summary: Ep 189 – 2024 MXdN Preview

Release Date: October 3, 2024
Host: Jason Thomas

Introduction

In Episode 189 of Industry Seating, host Jason Thomas provides an in-depth preview of the 2024 Motocross Nations (MXdN). Drawing from his extensive experience and knowledge of the sport, Jason analyzes team performances, assesses rider capabilities, and forecasts potential outcomes for what he considers the most significant race of the year.

Tier System Overview

Jason structures his analysis by categorizing teams into three primary tiers based on their likelihood to win the MXdN:

1. Tier 1: Top contenders with strong superstars and consistent performance.
2. Tier 2: Solid teams with potential but lacking the star power of Tier 1.
3. Tier 3: Teams with quality riders but lacking the necessary elements to vie for the championship.

He emphasizes that this tiering is not derogatory but a realistic assessment of each team's strengths and weaknesses.

Tier 3 Teams

1. Switzerland

• Riders:

  • Jeremy Sewer: A podium-level MXGP rider capable of securing quality scores.
  • Arnetonis: A former factory rider whose current relevance in MXGP has diminished.
  • Valentin Guillot: Consistent but occasionally unpredictable performer.

• Analysis: Jason believes Switzerland cannot contend for the overall win due to the lack of a superstar and potential liabilities from inconsistent riders. However, they possess talent that should place them within the top 10.

  "A lot of the time for these teams they have to use two of those [low-scoring riders]. So you get like 40 or 50 points out of two scores. It's over." ([05:30])

2. Slovenia

• Riders:

  • Tim Geisser: A world champion expected to perform strongly.
  • Jan Poncer: A top-15 MXGP rider providing solid support.
  • Yaka Peklaj: An unfamiliar rider whose inconsistent performance could jeopardize the team's standing.

• Analysis: Slovenia is expected to make it to the A final, but the third rider's inconsistent scores could hinder their chances of winning. Jason highlights the recurring issue of an unpredictable third rider affecting overall team performance.

  "That's going to be a recurring theme and I'll keep coming back to that." ([12:45])

3. Canada

• Riders:

  • Jess Pettis, Kevin Benoit, Dylan Wright: All capable riders with varying degrees of recent performance.

• Analysis: Despite having talented riders, Canada struggles to perform outside their home tracks. Jason points out their difficulty in translating domestic success to international events, citing past crashes and inconsistent performances.

  "Remember Steve Mathis gotten in all this controversy when he said Chris Blows couldn't win. Okay. He wasn't trying to take shots at Chris Blows." ([22:10])

4. Estonia

• Riders:

  • Harry Kulas: A legend in Estonia with MXGP experience.
  • Gert Crestinoff: A veteran of MX2 and MXGP, known for solid performances.

• Analysis: Estonia boasts experienced riders who approach tracks methodically. While they may not deliver explosive performances, their consistency ensures respectable overall results, typically placing within the top 12.

Tier 2 Teams

1. United Kingdom (Team GB)

• Riders:

  • Tommy Searle: A seasoned racer nearing the end of his prime.
  • Max Anstey: A former double Moto winner with substantial experience.
  • Conrad Muse: A talented young rider with potential for breakout performances.

• Analysis: Team GB shows promise with experienced riders like Anstey and emerging talents like Muse. However, uncertainties surrounding Searle's current form and Muse's potential variability make their tier placement somewhat precarious.

  "He can absolutely rip. And he's probably 25 now." ([35:20])

2. Spain

• Riders:

  • Jorge Prado: A back-to-back MXGP world champion leading the team.
  • Ruben Fernandez: A top-five MXGP rider with consistent performances.
  • Oriole Oliver: An MX2 rider whose lower-tier performance could impact the team's overall score.

• Analysis: Spain possesses strong primary riders, but the inconsistency of their third rider could impede their ability to secure top positions. The balance between high-scoring leads and potential low-end scores defines their Tier 2 status.

  "He's a point scoring MX2 world championship rider. I'm just saying for this event to be in the running for the podium. He is their only liability." ([40:55])

3. Belgium

• Riders:

  • Lucas Koonin, Brett Van Donick, Jago Geerts: A mix of experienced and promising riders.

• Analysis: Facing last-minute changes and injuries, Belgium has managed to field a competent team. While not the strongest in Tier 2, riders like Geerts offer the potential for standout performances.

4. Germany

• Riders:

  • Ken Rockson, Simone Langenfelder, Max Nagel: A combination of experienced riders and a current ADAC champion.

• Analysis: Germany remains a wild card with seasoned riders who can perform reliably. Despite concerns about Rockson's health, the team maintains potential within Tier 2.

5. Italy

• Riders:

  • Alberto Ferrato, Andrea Adamo, Andrea Bonacoursi: A team bolstered by last-minute rider changes.

• Analysis: Italy adapted to unexpected injuries by integrating Ferrato and promoting Bonacoursi to MXGP. This strategic adjustment keeps them competitive, though primarily within the upper echelon of Tier 3.

  "They can get five solid scores. And that's kind of what I, you know, when I talk about some of these teams that they're not going to win their class, but they can get decent results on the day." ([50:10])

Team USA Analysis (Tier 1.25)

Team Composition:

• Eli Tomac: A seasoned rider in top form.
• Cooper Webb: Transitioning back to MXGP after seven years in the 250 class, currently not at peak fitness.
• Aaron Plessinger: Battling a shoulder injury, showing signs of improvement but with lingering concerns.

Analysis: Jason categorizes Team USA uniquely as Tier 1.25, acknowledging their formidable lineup but highlighting significant uncertainties:

1. Cooper Webb: Unfamiliar with the 250 class post a seven-year hiatus and currently regaining fitness.

   "If you told me he's top five or top seven in both motos, that wouldn't surprise me at all." ([58:40])

2. Aaron Plessinger: Recovering from a shoulder injury, with potential but unpredictable performance.

3. Eli Tomac: The only rider without major concerns, consistently performing at a high level.

Additionally, Team USA faces a strategic disadvantage as none of its riders are familiar with the current racetrack, unlike other teams that have extensive experience here. This lack of familiarity with track nuances and optimal bike setups could hinder their performance.

"If you're the least familiar with a racetrack on all levels, that has to be viewed as a negative." ([1:02:15])

Despite these challenges, Jason remains a staunch supporter of Team USA, expressing hope while maintaining objectivity in his assessment.

Tier 1 Teams

1. France

• Riders:

  • Roman Febra: Currently not at peak form due to injuries.
  • Tom Vial: Experienced and familiar with the racetrack.
  • Maxime Renault: Struggling with form post-injuries.

• Analysis: While France's top riders have underperformed compared to previous years, their expertise in racing on hard pack terrains like the current racetrack conditions gives them an edge. Jason considers them strong contenders, especially if weather conditions favor their racing style.

  "The conditions and the dirt composition is a coup for Team France." ([1:10:05])

2. Australia

• Riders:

  • Jet Hunter: A dominant force expected to lead the team.
  • Kyle Webster: Proven ability to perform internationally, albeit in the 250 class.

• Analysis: Australia boasts Jet Hunter, whose exceptional talent makes him a favorite to secure top positions in his class. However, Kyle Webster's transition to the 250 class and adaptation to a factory Honda remains a variable. If Webster adapts successfully, Australia has a high chance of winning.

  "If Webster brings his best stuff, this team can win." ([1:15:40])

3. Netherlands

• Riders:

  • Glenn Coldenhoff: A veteran with multiple MXGP titles, currently recovering form.
  • Jeffrey Hurlings: A decorated racer with consistent performance.
  • Kaida Wolf: The reigning MX2 world champion providing strong support.

• Analysis: The Netherlands stands as a formidable Tier 1 team, especially if weather conditions like rain play to their strengths. Glenn Coldenhoff’s return to form could be pivotal, positioning the Netherlands as favorites alongside France and Australia.

  "If it's raining on Sunday, I put the Netherlands at the top." ([1:20:30])

Conclusion

Jason Thomas delivers a comprehensive and realistic preview of the 2024 MXdN, categorizing teams based on their strengths, rider performances, and strategic advantages. While Tier 1 teams like France, Australia, and the Netherlands emerge as frontrunners, Tier 2 and Tier 3 teams present their own sets of challenges and potentials. Team USA, despite its star power, faces unique hurdles that place it slightly below the top tier in this year's competition.

Jason commits to providing a post-race recap to evaluate the accuracy of his predictions and offers listeners an engaging and insightful analysis to enhance their viewing experience of the Motocross Nations.

Note: Timestamps are approximate and based on key moments in the provided transcript.