Jason Thomas (0:00)

A pulp MX Network production. A cerebral and experienced look into the racing action from the week that was. This is Industry Seating with Jason Thomas. Presented by GUTS Racing Pro Glow Wash Works Connection Bass Foundry TL Speed Shop Grandstone Boots and Fly Racing. Good morning from the campus of Notre Dame. Gonna do a little walk and record this morning. Kind of walking all over the, the campus here. It's incredibly quiet. It's about 6am on the 4th of July of all days and of course, you know, school is not in. So if you've ever lived in a college town or been around a college town when school is out, it's pretty quiet around here. So it's really nice. For anybody who's ever been to this campus, you will appreciate how beautiful the Notre Dame campus is now. It's pretty small comparatively to like larger state institutions. I think the student body's around 9,000 undergrad which is, I mean it's not a small number but comparatively to bigger schools that you know, anywhere from 30 to 60, 70,000, it's fairly small, private, a lot of money here, huge alumni endowment. So yeah, just it's a beautiful place and it's going to be really hot this weekend. Not that anybody on this campus cares, but bringing it back to the race at Red Bud which is about 25 minutes, 30 minutes down the road, it's going to be, it's going to be one of those days and I didn't really think it was going to be. It wasn't like everybody was talking about it all week. I didn't really bring it up a lot. But the expectations for heat have risen quite a bit in. Yeah. In the last few days even. There's like heat warnings and stuff on the news I was watching right before I took off for my walk. So just something to think about as we, we enter this holiday weekend and everything that is, that is Red Bud. Yeah, it's, it's one of the best races in the world in my opinion. Any, you know, okay, motocross nations is different but a one off race as part of a series. I've been to most of them around the world, even China and crazy places like that. I would say it's, it's right up there. So before we get too far into this, do want to thank the sponsors of this podcast, GUTS Racing Works Connection, TL Speed Shop, Grant Stone Boots, unmatched supplements, excuse me, firepower, batteries and hard parts and fly racing. Thank you to all of them for, for being on board. I'll touch on them a little bit later. But let's, let's jump right into this thing. It is Friday, the day before the, the race and talk about last week a little bit. Talk about this week. Reminder. I do have my Patreon podcast that will kind of preview exactly what I think is going to happen tomorrow. That's, I released that on Saturday mornings. And you can go to patreon.com industry seeding if you want to sign up for that. I mean you could, it's like it's a little as a dollar a month over there, so check that out. But it's kind of a last minute update on what's happened after Friday after press day. And all those things help you with fantasy, whatever, whatever you may like. I take requests over there too. But you know, Southwick was, Southwick's a hard one. And it, you know, in the morning it was really cool. Like I'm talking almost to the point of cold and it takes a lot for me to get cold. Just as a, as a person. I just, I run hot all the time. I need air conditioner really cold at night. And even I was like, man, it's a little chilly. Like, you know, Will Christian and even riders and stuff, they all had jackets on. I did not just because of the previously mentioned condition. Not condition, but just preference, I guess. But that changed a lot. You could, you could feel the humidity though it was threatening rain, it did sprinkle at times during the day, but you feel that heaviness of humidity throughout the morning, then mid morning. And I wasn't thinking about it too much because I just didn't think we were going to break out of that. But when we did at around, I don't know, 2:30pm Something like that, the clouds all probably just burned off and we got abundant sunshine. And when it did come, I'm talking about a 10 degree jump probably in 15 minutes. Seriously, it went from like a pretty enjoyable day, even though it was overcast. Like it was just pleasant to be outside to really hot and really humid, really fast. And for the riders, I think it caught a lot of them off guard. I think they were surprised by it. I don't think. You know, and the point I'm trying to make is if you think about a day like what really red bud is going to be tomorrow, everybody's watching the news, everybody's looking at the forecast, everybody knows. So mentally you prepare for what's to come. Like you're thinking about how difficult this day is going to be. Your mindset is just completely different coming in because you Know what the ask is going to be and there is some solace in that. Your body kind of guards itself is like, all right, this is going to be. This is going to be a really hard day. And I need to do everything humanly possible to save energy. You hydrate better, you sleep more, you rest more. Like there, all these things happen. And I wouldn't even say it's subconsciously. It's really more consciously. Like there's a concerted effort when you know that a hot day is on deck. That that's just kind of how these guys routine works. And your trainer's going to be on you more like, hey, more water. Maybe you get an IV throughout the week. Like all those things happen. When anyone looks at the forecast and sees this crazy, you know, temperature or humid day coming. Well, that didn't happen last week. And I think it caught guys a little bit by surprise. If you go back and you watch how much like AP Aaron Plessinger was laboring and AP super fit. He trains in the heat every day. But you could see him suffering in the second moto. You could see vow in the second moto suffering. And these guys are, they're fit. You know, like all they do, literally all they do is train and ride and prepare for the heat. But I just think it was a little bit of a, just a little bit more of a surprise than normal. So when it hit them, they weren't kind of braced for it. And I, they will be ready for it this weekend. So I don't know if that changes anything in the results. I just, in my experience, it was always just a little bit different. If I knew it was coming, I was already kind of leaning into it. And you know, you can't, you can't train at the last minute to get ready for something. But it's just a, like a hardening in your mind that's like, all right, buckle up. It's going to be. This is going to be a hard day. So you're, you're ready, right? Like, it's like you're going out into storm weather with all your, all your rain gear on. You're just, you're simply more mentally prepared for what's to come. Now, the, this track is one of the ones that riders actually enjoy riding. And that, that sounds strange. You know, if, if you're not familiar kind of with the different tracks and rider mentality there. There are certain tracks where riders, they're just doing a job. Like this is. This is their life's work. They're Going to do the job anyway. And it doesn't have to be fun. It can just be what it is, which is hard work, the way they make their money. A lot of these guys are, you know, wealthy or on their way to being wealthy and they're just gonna go out and execute. You know, it's, it's not a, doesn't have to be. You know how many people go to work and it's like, man, that was a lot of fun. Yeah, not many, right? Racing can be the same way. You know, we all love it. It's where it's our favorite sport for many of us. But for the riders, there are, there are lots of days, if not most days where it's just not that much fun. You're suffering, you're training, you're riding, you don't want to go riding, you don't want to ride your bicycle anymore. You don't want to keep sweating, you don't want to have to do all the things you have to do. You don't want to go get on an airplane. But yeah, nobody, nobody really wants to go to work. I understand there are lucky few who just love their jobs and God bless you. I just don't think that's most people, you know, and no one should feel sorry for racers. That's not the point. The point is it can be a job like any other. And the upside of weekends like this one at Red Bud or I would say and, and, or a weekend like next weekend at Melville is the riders actually like the track. And that, that goes a long way for how guys feel about the weekend. Now the heat doesn't help. They know that's going to be a really difficult addition. But it helps when the track's like enjoyable to ride, you know, and it used to be when we would ride on Saturdays, well, I guess we race on Saturdays. But when it was a two day event and Saturday was just a practice day, that was really when you could see it. Guys are like enjoying being out on the track, like doing huge whips on the jumps, hitting Wako's Leap and, and doing all sorts of tricks. Like you could tell the guys were enjoying their time on the track on Saturday. That's kind of the difference. So it helps. It just helps a little bit. It can offset some of the heat because the track's a little bit more fun and just the atmosphere, the chaos that's going to go on during near the podium, all those things help to make Red Bud a really cool weekend. So let's think about the 250 class a little bit. You know, Deegan is firmly in control of this class. Like there's just no question about who the guy is. He's done everything right. Starts, fitness, speed, confidence, finishing. He's got the whole, the whole package for the 250 class right now. And you know, barring injury, I don't think you're going to see much of that change. Like we just, we see what we're going to get already from, from Hayden. So kudos to him. You know, behind him it's kind of a toss up. The battle for second in points is raging a bit and on the fantasy podcast yesterday, Steve and Dan and Paul were all kind of debating who was going to get second in points. I don't even think I got in on that, that combo, but I think that Joe gets it. They, they seem to go a different direction. I think Steve picked the Al. I don't know why I didn't get asked, but I would just stick with Joe. I think Joe has been the second best rider. You know, now that Jaime is out, I don't think there's much of debate of that. You know, Joe's issues have been first turn crashes, bad starts. But on a riding basis, it's hard to debate that Joe has been the second best guy of who, who is actually racing. I think he's only going to get better too. If you look at historically what Joe has done, he simply gets better down the stretch. He, he has a bunch of really good tracks in the second half of the series that he's one motos on and I don't see why, I don't see why that would change. When you look at the form he's on and the field that he has to compete against, why would any of that change is. I think it's a fair question to ask. So I think Joe's going to be really good. You know, Kitch and Vial and those guys are all going to be in there. That's going to be your podium, their podium mainstays really from here. I don't see a lot of guys kind of interrupting that. You know, it's always possible. Sure. You know, why wouldn't it be? But I think we kind of have our top four or five. I think you're going to get a lot of the same guys over and over. They have, they have kind of broken away, they've established themselves. They are who we thought would be in the top five anyway. And it's just really kind of reinforced that. I don't Think there was a ton of doubt. You know, the guys like Cochran and those guys that were getting in there are hurt, hurt high miss. So it's, it's made it even more kind of concrete of who would be in there and who wouldn't. So I don't expect a lot of, a lot of uncertainty or a lot of unpredictable results in 250 class at all. You know, really the only question is can anybody beat, can anybody beat Hayden? And I don't want to say no because it's, it is possible. We've seen it. But I just think he is going to continue extending his lead. He's going to continue winning overalls. It'll be like jet early in the season where maybe there's some challenge, maybe, you know, it doesn't look like utter domination, but at the end of the day you look up and he has more points and he extended his lead again. I just think that's what, that's what's coming. The one thing I did want to touch on here with silly season a little bit, it's pretty interesting right now, you know, Shimoda is up for grabs. Honda's trying to resign him. At one point, Husky was trying to sign him and I don't know if that's still the case. There's so much uncertainty between where else, I guess surrounding are they going to have a team for Husky? Is Gas Gas going to be around? Like, what does that whole dynamic look like? I, I truly have no idea. They haven't really been very transparent. I, I don't even know if they absolutely know what that's going to look like. And that's probably the problem is they're parsing through that right now. So how could, how could we know if they don't necessarily 100% know? And, and maybe they do. Maybe I'm not giving them enough credit. But typically when you have trans or full certainty of something like that, like a big structure change, you're not gonna, you're not gonna really hide it. You know, you wanna kind of be out in front of that because you want to be locking down sponsors and give people that are supporters, you wanna give them time to prepare, to organize budgets, all those types of things. So they wanna be out in front of that. And typically stuff like that doesn't stay secret for very long once you start sharing with key, you know, outside companies or whatever, that it kind of gets out. And it's not like it's a trade secret anyway, like what you're going to do with these oem side teams and brands I don't think is necessarily like proprietary information. So that all kind of leads me to think that they don't have it all dialed in. I would guess they have an outline or an idea of what they want to do, but the fine print of that is probably still very much being ironed out. That's just my guess. So that kind of leaves Shimoda, I guess if they're making an offer. If that's true. I heard they made an offer that was a three year deal that gave him a pathway to the 450 class. That's what I heard. That doesn't mean it's true. It's just, it's just scuttlebutt. And if you hear the birds and crickets in the background, I apologize. But I'm walking, literally walking around campus. I'm right in front of the center for Environmental Science right now. I don't know that anybody would know what that is, but that's where I am anyway. So for Shimoda, I think that was an attractive offer for multiple reasons. One three year deal's great, gives you so much security in where you're going to be financially, career wise. And also that pathway to the 450 class is big because if you're looking at where Joe sits right now at Honda, how can he have any sort of real thoughts about moving to the 450 on that team? Like Jet and Hunter are so established there, are they going to go three 450s seems unlikely. So where does that leave Joe long term on a 450 at Honda? Kind of leaves him nowhere. So I certainly would understand him looking around now. What I would push back a little bit against that is for Joe, he could sign a two year deal on 250s. He's going to do really well. You figure Hayden's out of there. Joe is going to be one of the remaining few that can win and when the time comes, he's going to be set up to race the 450 anyway. Doesn't have to be at Honda. If he's winning titles or doing really well, he's going to get a 450 deal. I do think that would happen. You just look at the progression he's made, especially two more years. If he continues getting better, which I do think he's getting better. Like if you look at his supercross season this year, it would be very hard to argue that it wasn't better than it was the prior year. Right. Like he is trending the right direction. He won the opener he kind of negated a lot of the talk about early season struggles. There was a lot to like there. So I like the, the trend that Joe is on. I think being at Honda is a very good place to be. Their bike, their 250 is getting a lot better. It's, it's really improved. You can see them getting hole shots. Being around that team, there's a lot of synergy over there and you never know. Like maybe he doesn't like the 25 Honda. I can't speak to that. But he certainly seemed to be, seems to be riding it pretty well. So I would, if I'm him, I think I would do the Honda thing even though the three year deal and I don't know the money, I don't know the money difference at all. So there's that. And also you have to think about if he stays at Honda, he gets to do his own gear deal. That's a big thing because I think he's probably in the 250, 250k range for gear. I don't know that. I'm just speculating, knowing the market pretty well. His Honda deal's probably another 250. So he's probably a 500k guy. Plus, you know, I don't know what his like drink weird beverage deal is or any of those things but you figure he could be a 5 or 600k guy before he even throws his leg over the motorcycle and starts earning bonuses or prize money or whatever. And you start thinking about he won a Supercross, lots of podiums, you know, like Joe could make a million dollars this year. I mean, I'm not saying he will, I'm just saying he could. Like it's possible. My guess would be it would be more like 800, but again, I have no idea. Like, I'm just using experience to formulate a guess. But it's a lot of money. It's a lot of money for a guy that's not winning titles. So I would probably stay there if I were him and just kind of trust what my eyes are telling me. Like trust what's happening and trust what's, what's the situation is saying to me all around, bike's better, I'm winning. The class is going to get easier with the departure of Hayden. Like all these things set up really nicely for Joe to stay where he's at and continue on with what he's doing. Now let's switch to Vial, who was the other big silly season kind of, I guess, conversation. There we go. You know, news broke this week that he has a really good offer to go back to Europe to race for Honda HRC and mxgp. I think it caught a lot of people by surprise. Caught me by surprise. But when I really sit back and think about probably shouldn't. Well, it only caught me by surprise because I. I didn't think he had any interest in going back. That. That's really the surprising part. But if you told me, hey, I think VL would consider going back to Europe. Okay. Because when I think about Europe right now, there's a lot of upheaval. Like, it's very. There's a lot of fluidity and it's all uncertain over there right now. Yamaha is nowhere in their program. Like, they are really struggling and it's probably the worst I've seen Yamaha struggle. I. I don't know. Long time, long time. They don't have. They don't really have the guy to. To take them to the front 250 program is not going so well. You know, Hutton Matal's moving. MX2 has not been. Has not really produced fruit over there. It's a lot of DNFs, a lot of frustration and they don't have a clear path to success like I think they typically do or would like to. Like, that's just not. It's not going the way that it usually does for them. So they are actively pursuing somebody else. Like they're in the Tim Geyser conversation, doesn't mean they're going to get him, but they are entertaining him with, I would guess, pretty big offers, and they could consolidate their team, consolidate their spending amongst a bunch of guys, because they have a lot of riders down to a couple guys, give that money to Geyser and try to go win. Because I do think the Ammar 450, especially if they would engage the help of Star, which they stopped doing two years ago, man, they could make a lot of progress in a hurry with the bike. You know, they use. From what I understand, they use Michele Rinaldi. And there's been a lot of. A lot of. I don't know the right word. It hasn't gone very well ever since they switched back to Rinaldi. And I haven't ridden the bike. I'm not on the team, so I'm kind of speaking from hearsay and also watching how things are going. But ever since they went back to Rinaldi from Star, it would be very difficult to argue that it's gotten better. Seriously, like for anybody, for them too if they were taking an honest look in the mirror, it would be very difficult for them to say, yes, this was a, this was a good move. We, we made the right call. I, you know, I don't know how much they were spending. I know that Michele Rinaldi was really unhappy, understandably. But results matter. And it's, you know, if results matter and results have a voice, it's screaming at you that this was the wrong direction. Because look at Star in America. Look at, you know, like when, when this was going on, this was like three years ago. Iago was winning, they were getting hole shots, Benistant was kind of breaking out. Like, there was a lot to like over there. And I just, I think they've, I think they've taken a huge step backwards. That's, that's my take on it, is they have, they have taken a step backwards. Long story short, so Yamaha could go after Geyser and ktm. They've got an aging Jeffrey Herlings that wants a new deal, but he's really expensive. And keep in mind, we're working back to vow here. KTM is kind of open, right? They are trying to keep Lucas Koonin, they're trying to keep Ky de Wolf, and they don't want to continue paying Jeffrey Hurlings a ton of money. That's, that's where the thing. That's where things sit right now. So what does KTM do? Well, I think they're going to keep Koonin, and I think they'd like to keep Kaida Wolf, but I think that's eventually going to be a losing proposition. I think Kai is so dead set on coming to America that that's going to happen. Like, every time I talk to anybody about Kai, he is. His heart is set on America. So eventually that's going to win out. So KTM needs a guy for the long term, and I think it's going to be Koonin or they would like for it to be Koonin, although Koonin wants to come to America also. So KTM's got a little bit of a problem on their hands as far as they groomed these guys, DeWolf and Koonin specifically, to go up and be world beaters, and they've done a great job of that and they're primed to do it, but they don't want to be in. They don't want to be in MXGP anymore. They want to come to America. That's a problem. That's a problem for ktm when you've invested all this money and those guys want to go across the pond, race a different series, and you may not even have them on your bike anymore. So they need to figure out what they're going to do. I don't think they're, they're, they're not chasing Tim Geyser from what I heard. I think what's going to happen is they just walk Lucas Koonin in. That's what I would do if I was them. Because a guy like Jeffries in the 2 to 3 million dollar range with KTM, and that means when he comes off the books this coming year, they have money to spend. And I don't mean they have money to spend as a company. We all know the challenges they face over there. But if you're going to keep the budget somewhat intact, even if, okay, shave a million off that, if you're KTM and you go offer Lucas Koonin 1.5, I have to think he's going to take that. I don't know. I don't know for sure. But what I do know is that money is a big driving factor over there. When I say over there, I mean his family, his inner circle, they want to make some money. And again, I'm, I'm 100% speculating on numbers here. I don't know any of this. I'm just somewhat educated on the subject and I know kind of how these things can play out. And I, man, if I'm, you know, Lucas. Myrtle represents Lucas Koonin and they offer me anything like that, a million, like, you're not going to stay. Like, if you're Lucas Koonin, you're 18, you're going to be 19. You are positioned to battle for the title in 2026. You're guaranteed a million plus already to stay there. Race wins are 100 grand. Like, I, I'm not even going to say he could win a title. Let's, let's say he doesn't. Let's just say he wins a few GPS. I mean, it's not impossible that he could make $2 million in 2026. Like, that's a lot of freaking money. And again, I don't know that they're offering him that. But when you have a guy that's as young as Lucas Kooninis is winning and has shown this much promise on a 450, I think he's probably getting offered something like that. Like, it stands to reason that he's going to get offered something like that. So it, I think it just throws a wrench into everybody's plan because if you rewound, let's say six months ago, there was a completely different plan in place. Lucas Koonin, we going to come to America. They were going to go race 250 Supercross and go chase their American dream. Well, this 450 success changed all of that. And I wouldn't say it was for the worse. Maybe it was for the worse for ktm, maybe. But it really just changed his opportunity. Really. Because I think KTM is still on board with him coming to America. They can't pay him a ton of money because they don't have, they didn't budget for it. For an America, they still need a guy that can win an MXGP. That's, that's why he's on a 450 right now onto Carley is because they need an MXGP contender. He can be that guy. And the thing, the thing about this is I'm going to shorten this up a little bit. The whole, the whole thing for, for KTM Acunan, they need a guy for the long term that can win and they're willing to pay handsomely for it. Just, just like they paid Jeffrey, just like they used to pay Cairoli. Like they will pay. Just like Geyser gets paid at Honda. If you can win and you're in title contention, you'll get paid a lot of money. February gets paid a lot of money too. So for Kunin, unless you just hate Europe like you, just like I cannot stand to live on this continent anymore. I can't imagine that's where he's at. Like he grew up there. It's not the worst place place in the world, especially if you're from there. Like, I don't want to live there, but I didn't grow up there. The culture is different, the language is different, food's different. Like they're used to all that. So if you're telling me that I can stay here, lock in deals, you know, like, I think for the next five to 10 years he's going to be in contention to win titles. If you are, that means you're going to make 1 to 2 million, if not more, because I think he would graduate into that 2 million plus a year deal. So in the next 10 years, assuming at 28 he's still competitive, let's say it's seven years, he's making 1 to 2 million a year. You're talking about 10 to 15 to 20 million in earnings in the next seven years at 25. Figure taxes, which are rough in Europe, let's say he makes 15 million. I mean, he has 6 or 7 million. Like that's a pretty good deal. Like you're. Now, if you're smart, you don't need to think about work ever again. I'm not saying he's going to be buying yachts, but if he walks away, if he. At 25, he has 5 to 7 million and I'm. I'm kind of on the low end and money saved away. Like, you did it. You did the thing. And it could be a lot more than that if he starts winning titles, it could be significantly more than that. I'm being conservative with this thing. I don't know. When I think about that, versus going to America, having to deal with learning supercross, of which he knows nothing about. Change everything. Move your whole life, you got to deal with Jet and Sexton and Deegan and all those guys. It's not for me to decide. It's not my dream, you know, it's. It's Lucas Koonin's dream. But I don't know. I don't know. It's something to think about. I. I'm not a career advisor, but I would think long and hard about what's staring me in the face, which is a lot of money in Europe on tracks. You already know a situation, you already know a bike, you already know money that I think is there to go get versus the unknown Supercross. Injuries. Injuries are going to happen. You go learn Supercross and you try to win, guess what's going to happen. You're going to have crashes and injuries. That is just a part of the game, unfortunately. Factor that in. What if he just never makes it in Supercross? That's possible. So I think KTM needs they. They need to have a long, hard conversation with Kunin. That's what I would do and say, hey, there's a lot of money here for you. We need you. And not saying you need us, but this is a really, really good match for both of us. So let's see how that plays out. That's just how I see it. Getting back to vl. So Honda and Tim Geyser had a big falling out. So Geyser is likely leaving. He is either. Probably either probably. He's likely to go to either Yamaha or Ducati. Those are. To me, that's what I've heard his name associated with the most. And both of them need him. As far as having a team leader, it doesn't sound like he's staying at Honda. It's not impossible, but with them, sign with them making this offer to V Al that's a really big shot across the bow as far as, hey, we're moving on and did a podcast with Ben Townley yesterday that's out now where he basically says, yeah, Honda's never making that offer to vow if they're planning on keeping Tim. That's just how this works. And I can't really argue it, I just don't have any proof of it. So I'm always open to another possibility. But he's basically like, it's done. That door is effectively closed for Tim as soon as they make that offer to Tom Vial, which is very likely to be true. So for Honda, they're like, man, we just lost or we're not going to be re signing our title contender. And for, for, for Geyser, what I hear is right now they pay him in the 3.3.3 range, something like that. He wants the same deal and to be fair, it's not my money. But if you're paying him to win races and titles, I think he's still going to do that. So again, unless they have some sort of huge budget reduction, I think he's worth the same deal he was getting. That's just my opinion. They want to pay him more like 2.2. And what I think is happening is that this is a market reflection and a kind of just a state of the market type play versus a performance dictates that we pay you less type thing. And for a rider, you may not care. You know, Tim may be looking around going, I don't care. Like I don't care what the market is. Like these, these are my prime years. I'm the best guy in MXGP and he is the best guy in mxgp. Make no mistake about that. He is the best guy. So he probably is like, that's for you to worry about, not me. I need to make my money now while I'm the best guy. It's not how it works though. This is a, it's a business in the end. And if there's less money and less bikes being sold and less accessories and apparel, which all is true, everybody's selling less in Europe and in America. Everybody's selling less right now, period. It's just the way it is. So advertising budgets probably got rolled back, there's less money floating around and deals come down like that is. That's a really easy kind of parallel to draw. So I get it. I certainly get it. I just don't know If Tim really sees it that way and I've heard there are some hard feelings and some nastiness back and forth. I don't know where that came from. I don't know what that stemmed from, if it's just money or more than that. But in the end all that matters is it seems like they're going their separate ways. So Yamaha and Ducati are both circling, trying to trying to acquire his services and make no mistake on a good bike, which I assuming both of them could come up with. Tim wins races and is the title. I don't know about favorite on a new bike but right there, like right there he is a bad, bad dude. So I understand the draw for everybody going after him. So anyway, Honda has this big hole they need to fill and the owner it's private team is Giacomo Garibaldi. He has a lot of money, his family is big in the equestrian or horse industry. I don't know exactly what they do. I think they breed racehorses or something in Italy, but they have a lot of money and they want to go win. So if you, if you're not going to sign Geisser, what are you going to do? You got to, I think you have to think outside the box because they were chasing Lucas Koonin. That sounds like it's a dead end. I don't think KTM is going to let him do that because he is under contract. So what else are you going to do? I don't think anybody really. Unless you can get Kaida Wolf, that's not happening. He's under contract. This play for Vial was a little unorthodox, but I understand it, I get it because they need a guy who can possibly win and they're kind of looking around and saying well there is really nobody available that can win. Now let's think about Vi Alfred and I apologize for being so long winded. I'm really taking my time. I'm walking around. This campus is unbelievably beautiful by the way and trying to work through this every angle. So apologies if you're not enjoying it, but I'm enjoying talking about it. So for vow he supercross, he's got two titles and that, that's great. But if you really look under the hood and his long term aspirations, I don't like the way that sets up. I don't like his skill set. I don't for, for 450 success. I, I don't love what I see. He has a real, a real lack of efficiency or proficiency in the Whoops, that's a problem. And you could say, well, so does Justin Cooper and Cooper Webb. Fair, understood. Those guys are incredibly good. Everywhere else though, incredibly good. They're making up for that lack of efficiency or proficiency. I don't know that Tom Vial can do that. I don't see the same excellence or above average or superior skill set in the corners or other areas where Cooper Webb and Justin Cooper make up for it. That's, that's the thing here is if you're going to be that bad in the whoops, you damn sure better be better than everybody else in some areas. And I don't see that for Tom. Like, I see him being pretty good in all the other areas, like good corners, pretty good starts. But he doesn't have the kind of antidote to the whoops problem. Another thing, really big rhythm sections. Tom doesn't really want to pull the trigger. He backs out of the biggest rhythm sections quite a bit. There was a rhythm section in Philly, he crashed big in practice, pretty much didn't want to do it the rest of the night. Think about stuff like that. There, there are these sections on racetracks where he just doesn't want to jump the jumps. Maybe it was Pittsburgh, he did win Pittsburgh. But there it's been a thing that I've noticed and it's been talked about in the gnarliest, biggest, toughest rhythms, Tom kind of takes a pass. He just doesn't really want to do it. And that's just, it's unfamiliarity, it's lack of experience, it's lack of confidence, it's all those things. But in a four on a 450 against the best guys, you don't have that option. Like that is not an acceptable pathway, is to just say, yeah, man, I'm just gonna, not just gonna, not jump that rip that big rhythm. Like you will get smoked if you do something like that. So for moving to the 450 class in 26, which wasn't the plan, I mean it's a, it's a kind of a blessing and a curse. You know, you got this huge bonus check. He's, you know, he's always going to be a two time Supercross champ. That's all great. Probably made 600 grand for winning that title outside of, you know, podiums and winning a race. So probably all in. He probably made 750,000, something like that for Supercross. Not a bad gig. So already he's well over a million for 20, 25. You know, think he's probably sitting right now he's probably at 1.25 in earnings for 2025. Pretty damn good. But he's going to have to move up now because of the rule. And KTM it sounds like would give him a spot, but they're not going to give him a pay bump. He's still under contract I guess. Maybe, maybe not. Maybe he is open to a deal. That's why the Honda thing's happening. But either way, I'm pretty sure the latter is true. But either way, KTM doesn't have a big budget to give him, nor do I think they want to. They just gave tomac in the 2 to 3 million range for 20, 26 and I guess 7 maybe. So they don't have any money to give him is the point. They could pay him what they were planning on paying him, which is probably like 250, 300 maybe he would take that. Okay, his gear deal is probably like 200. So he's probably a 500k guy salary. When you figure goggles and boots and all that stuff walking in the door as a 450 guy, that's like Justin Cooper type money right now or the past year or so anyway. It's a lower end 450 guy deal. Nothing wrong with it. It's just where it is. Now you think about the chances of success for Tom in 2026 racing Supercross, I would say pretty low. He's going to be like an 8th to 10th place guy a lot. That's my, that's my honest opinion. Again, nothing wrong with that. I would have very much liked to be an 8th place guy every single weekend. We're not talking about me. We're talking about a guy who's a two time champ who's trying to get factory deals. Listen, factory teams are not going to be beating your door down for 8th to 10th and really no chance of podiums in Supercross. And I do mean no chance like he's. When you think about Deegan's on the way, Sexton Tomax still there, Webb AP's riding better than ever, Jet Hunter. I just go down the list. Like Justin Cooper's on the rise. Cooper Webb's still around pretty much. No chance of podiums anytime in the near future. Like the outlier race where he gets a hole shot, the whoops are nothing and he's riding out of his mind. Okay, I shouldn't completely say it's impossible, but I think you understand what I'm saying. On a, on a regular basis he's not going to get on the podium, like consistently, it's just going to be a hard no. So that sets him up for 20 for long term. I don't think he's going to get there and factory teams are just going to be like, nah, man, we're good. Like we have so much, so many guys to choose from that can win that. I think we're good because just 450 motocross doesn't, it doesn't do enough for people. Like, it's, it's something, it's something like Justin Cooper proved that you can make it. But I don't think it's like a career backbone that Tom Vial wants to lean on. Like the, the financial upside of that is not enough. So I think for Tom, he's kind of looking around and going, okay, what's the state of affairs? What's my long term roadmap here? And I don't think it's in America, the most uplifting one. It's not horrible, it's not a train wreck. I just don't think it's like, you know, perfect. It's not one he's looking at going, yeah, man, future is all in front of me. Go here, make this money. This team's going to reset. It's just not, it's not that easy for Tom. And then I think he gets this offer kind of out of nowhere from Honda. You know, it sounded like Lucas Myrtle had been working on a Honda deal for the Kunin. I know they were, they were chasing the Kunins. I'll give Lucas Myrtle credit. It's not perfect. There's a lot of noise around him, but he is good at making these deals. That's why, that's why he had the Lawrences. That's why he's had all the riders that he's had. He's very good at making deals that make sense and connecting teams and riders that need and want and will work with each other. He has a skill for that. Say what you want, you don't have to like him, but he is good at this. So he looks at it and says, okay, well if I can't get the Kunin's there, what about Vial? Because Vial is still under his stable and I think it was a great job by him. I really do. I really think he did a great job of finding necessity and opportunity and putting those two in the same room and hammering a deal out. And Vial looks around and he says, okay, MXGP is in the weakest position that it's been in a long time. At least A decade. That is true. I will die on that hill. It's in the weakest spot it's been in a decade. So that means as a two time MX2 champ and still young, I have leverage, I have leverage to get a really good deal somewhere in mxgp simply because they need guys that can win. Just, you know, like I just spent time talking about the Kunin and DeWolf thing. Yes, Tom is older than them, but it's kind of the same thing if they're going to want to leave or they're, they're not really trying to sign to stay in Europe. And Tom is like, hey man, I can win. I can come in immediately. I know all these tracks, I know the culture, I know everything I need to know. Like you can unplug and play. That's a, that's a, a big coup for anybody. So I like the way that sets up. Now you can argue all day long if you want that Tom is not fast enough to beat Geyser or Lucas Koonin or Febra. I don't, I don't necessarily have a strong opinion. I would say that might be true. I would say I understand where you're coming from on that. And yeah, that, that's certainly, certainly a thing. Maybe his top end speed's not enough. Cool. I, I don't have a lot of pushback to give there, but I'm open to the fact that he can figure it out. He's always figured it out outdoors. Like he's, he's not as good as Hayden, but he's as good as everybody else. Maybe, you know, maybe he is a podium guy every weekend on the Honda. That's, that's more than they're going to have if they lose Geyser. So Honda has this 3.3 million coming off the books. Tom Vial, very similar to the KTM Kunin thing. If you're looking at what he makes. I talked about him before he gets on the bike. He's probably a 500k guy. Honda comes in and says, hey man, we'll give you a million, we'll give you 800, we'll give you 1.2, we'll give you 1.5. I don't know what the number is. Lucas Myrtle is very good at extracting money. I do know that to be a fact, period. You can argue all you want, that's indisputable. He's very good at getting a lot of money for his riders. Always has been. Ask anybody in the sport that knows if you want the most money Myrtle gets it. So let's, let's say it's on the higher end of those possibilities. And you're Tom and you're like, eh, I don't want to race 450 supercross. That doesn't sound like a good time because another wrinkle of this. Remember, Tom practices with Chase Sexton all the time. He knows all too well where he stands against Chase Sexton. And I don't think he likes that setup very much. I don't think he would, he would like to have to face Chase Sexton every single day. That, that's my strong opinion. Very strong. You're not talking me out of that one. No matter what. That is a factor here because he's like, I can't beat that guy. That guy's a lot better than me. And it's Supercross. I'm not even in the, I'm not even in the conversation with that dude yet. I'm going to be asked to race and beat him next year. No, thank you. That sounds like a terrible idea. So that's a part of this also. And Garibaldi and Honda come in and say, hey, we want to build around you for the next five years. You know, I think Tom's 24, 25. So let's say it's the next four years we want to build around you. We're going to do a two year deal with an option for another two. If things are going well, we'll give you, will give you a million a year for the first two 100k wins. A million for a title. Maybe it's 750 for a title. I think it's a million. And then in the second option, it's going to be the team option. We'll bump you to 2 million for 2 years bonus to stay the same. So Tom's looking at it going, man, I could race the next four years and be done. I could be financially set and be signed, seal delivered, you know, career complete multimillionaire, two supercross titles, two mx, two titles. Whatever happens in mxgp, you know, wipe my hands to this thing and I'm set for life. That, that is a real possibility. Staring Tom in the face right now, like that's, it's not a bad, it's not bad work if you can get it, Tom. So that's what I think is kind of happening is Honda's looking at it going, this can be our guy. We save a ton of money on the front end, on the books and we can mold this guy into winning Because Geister's not going to be around forever. You know, Kunin's on the rise. Hurlings is pretty much gone. SeaWorld's pretty much gone. Like the door is open is the point for mxgp. Fevre's going to be gone soon, so they could build around him and maybe steel seal a title or two with Vow over the next four to five years. Like it's not impossible for that to work. And it's a budget efficient pathway for Honda and vl. So that's pretty much it. That's kind of how I see it. And then when you put all of that together, this move by Vow, if he's doing it, makes a hell of a lot of sense. That really checks out for me on what makes what's smartest, what kind of presents, you know, the best financial opportunity, what is the most likely scenario for success. Like all those things point to this deal. Now the question that he has to answer and is the last point question has to answer, do I want to live in Europe anymore? Do I want to race in Europe? I don't know. He's been in America for a few years now. Only he can answer whether or not he wants to take a step back and go back to Europe, go live in Belgium again and do all the things that you're expected to do. I don't know. That's up for him to decide. And that's a personal, personal thing he would have to work through. I don't know. I wouldn't really want to live in Wammel. So maybe there's an alternative to that. Like Geisser has never lived in waml. He lives in Slovenia, has his own practice facility in Croatia. So anyway, that's that. It's kind of how I see the 250 going. I really wanted to touch on that though. 450 class for red Bud was bringing all the way back to Red Bud, man. It's really hard to see Jet not winning. Doesn't mean he's going to dominate like he did at Southwick. But Jet is, Jet's coming into his own. And it's when you say someone's coming into their own as a Supercross champ, a guy that went undefeated in his first rookie season two years ago, two time SMX world champion, like, okay, yeah, cool, man. Great, great observation. He's coming into his own. Well, I just mean it on like form and I still think there's this development thing that is happening and will happen with Jet. And when I say that I think his, his physical the physical attributes, I think, are pretty much there. I think he's really close on that front. This is more talking about the mental game, the mental attributes, the mental maturity, the situational awareness, mentally, like, all those things I think are still in development mode. You know, he's 21, about to be 22, I think in a few days, maybe a month. But he. If you've ever been around him, he very much acts younger than that. Everybody who's ever known, everybody that knows him well would tell you, you know, he's 20, going on 16. Like, that's been the narrative around him. And I, from my experience, it's true. He's just. His Persona is very young and immature, I think has a negative connotation. I don't mean it to be, but it's probably the most appropriate word. I just want to make sure it's used in the right context here. That's going to catch up at some point. Whether it's now what we saw kind of last weekend, or whether it's when he's 25 or when he's 27, I don't know. But at some point, his mind in his body are going to be in the same spot at the same time. Like, peak, peak jet, mentally and physically is not something we've seen yet, in my opinion. Like, he's not thinking like an adult man, like a lethal competitor, yet. He's kind of just like bouncing around, taking it as it comes. Like there's just not this. I don't know, there's not this level of seriousness to him. Like. Like this killer mentality is not there yet. I do think it's coming, though. Is the point, like that is going to show up at some point as he continues to get a little bit older, a little bit wiser, a little bit more in development. All those things are going to show up and happen, and when they do, Godspeed to everybody else. Seriously, it's over for everybody else. Just telling you right now, you may say it's already over, fine, but it's only going to be more than it is right now. That guy's talent and ability, when he gets to the place where mentally he's like, no one's beating me. No one is beating me. And he has that kind of mindset. These guys are. These guys are done. I'm just. I'm just telling you on the front end, it hasn't happened yet. I think we saw a glimpse of it last week, but in my mind, that time is coming and there's always. There's always chances. It doesn't go that way. Injuries happen. We've seen him get hurt twice, so a lot can change. But what can happen, what I think will happen is that I just think you're going to see Jet Lawrence win for a very long time because we haven't even seen the best of him yet. That's the scariest part for all these guys is we're not there yet. We're not even to the best version of this kid that nobody can touch as it is, it's a scary thought for anybody whose dream is to be champ or win a lot of races in this class. So let's see what Jett brings this weekend. It's the return of Chase Sexton that's going to be a lot of fun. I don't know what he's going to do or not do. I don't really have a hard opinion. I've heard every, every thought out there, every opinion. A lot of people saying that he's going to immediately be in the podium fight, you know, probably right where he was. Not quite as good as Jet, but battling for second maybe shows Jet a wheel here and there, maybe comes back and wins. I've heard that. I've also heard from smart people like Ben Townley that it's going to be a real struggle early on because he doesn't have any momentum. These guys are all really fit and they've got a lot going. Like, it's really hard to jump into a series when you don't have any of those things. I think that's a pretty smart take as well. It's one I've known to be true. I just think Chase is a little better than that. Is my only pushback. Chase is a unique talent. Is he Jet? No, he's not. He's proven he's not. But he's really, really good. I'm talking like world class good. So I think that gives him a little extra. And remember, he came off an Supercross season where he was amazing. He's only been, you know, it wasn't like he was sidelined and couldn't ride for months on end and couldn't train and was sitting there in a cast like that. None of that is true. So it's. It's a little bit different than the normal coming back from injury. This isn't really that he. He was riding, he was training. Maybe he took some time off to kind of regroup, but it's not like he's coming off this zero base that like that is a big, big Big factor in this conversation. So you can't qualify to saying, well, yeah, he's coming off an injury, of course it's going to be a struggle. Yeah, that's not really true. So I disqualify that take kind of on the front. I don't disqualify the possible result of struggling. I disqualify the reasoning that he. That he's been hurt. That's. If I don't have it, I can't say for sure. But I don't think he was really hurt at all. That's. That's my honest opinion. I think he wanted a break after Supercross. I don't think he's happy with the team. He's definitely going to Monster Energy Kawasaki. I don't think he wanted to be there, and I think he decided, I'm not going to be here for a little bit. So I'm using this crash as a way to take some time off and get my head right that that's what I think really happened. Do it. Do with that what you want. That's my honest opinion. But I do think he'll come back kind of on form. The question is, what does on form mean? Time will tell. There are two things, though, that I think have to happen for Chase Sexton to leave this weekend and be like, okay, we're good. Not really stressed here. One, he needs to beat AP in both motos. He needs to beat Aaron Plessinger in both motos. Rule number one is beat your teammate. And for Chase, if you want to be considered one of the best guys in the world, or if you want to be the best guy in the world, you got to beat your teammate that hasn't ever won a 450 moto. That's it. Like, I don't need to put it any more plainly than that. You can't get beat by your teammate who makes, I don't know, 20% of what you make, you can't get beat by him. Can't. Cannot do it. Number two, you need to be on the podium at the end of the day when they're handing out trophies and spraying champagne. You need to be up there with Jet and whoever else, because Jet, I think, will be up there. If he's not, fine, you need to be on the podium no matter what. That. For your own mental sanity, for your. Your confidence, for everybody else to shut up around you. You don't want to hear noise all week. You don't want to hear all the crap you. He doesn't like that stuff, right? He doesn't like the opinions and all that. Like, I get it. Probably wouldn't like it either. But he won't hear any of that as long as he's on the podium. Like, nobody expects him to come back and beat Jet. Nobody serious expects him to come back the first weekend and beat Jet. If you do, you're asking too much right now. It's not that it can't happen. It's expecting it is my problem with it. So a podium would be like, okay, it's a good first step. We're back in this thing now. Let's go to work. That's a good place to kick things off and then run the stretch into September. So that's really how I see it for Chase. Two things. Two asks for that that qualifies him for success on the weekend. Tomac, I just want you to answer the bell, man. Like, Southwick wasn't good. That was not good. I mean, yeah, it's fine. He's on the podium, whatever. But that wasn't what anybody expected. Like we thought. I think collectively, we all thought that Eli was going to be in the fight to win at Southwick. Like, history would tell you that the 2025 season would kind of lean into that. Like, he's going to be a factor at one of his best tracks, and he wasn't really even close. Like, he wasn't even second. So he needs to bounce back from that. He needs to kind of right that ship championships. I mean, barring injury, the championship's kind of. It's kind of gone. You know, it's not over. We know better than that. But it's. It's getting there. It's definitely, definitely going the wrong direction now, quickly at this point. So I just want to see Eli return to form a little bit, show us some fight, show us some, you know, sprint speed, ability to pass Battle Jet, not the complacent. I can't move forward. Eli. I don't want to see that guy this. This coming weekend. Hunter, you're just looking for more of the same. He's doing a great job. Just keep that going, ap, get on the podium. Try to beat your teammate. Try to really make a statement with this weekend. Like, there is no one that wants to be on the podium. I shouldn't say that. I don't really know, but I feel confidently that AP wants to be on the podium really bad. He wants to beat Chase. Not because he doesn't like him, just for his own success and his own confidence and his own trajectory and all Those things. He wants to go out, be on the podium and beat Chase Sexton because he knows what Chase makes. He knows how much money he just got from Cowie. And AP doesn't get like crazy money from ktm. I don't know what the number is. I know what it used to be. It wasn't anything all that insane. And he wants to get deals like that. He wants to get a million to 2 million to $3 million offers from an OEM. Of course he does. Who doesn't? The only way to do that is to go out and beat those guys, go out and beat Jet, go out and beat Chase, beat Tomac. That's how you get it. You know, there's no other really way. He has everything else. He has a personality. He has the fan base, he has the marketing. Everything else is there, just the winning. The winning is the last step. And you could argue it's the most important one. He needs to get there. The rest of these guys, they all kind of have the same thing. Just, just try to be near the front. You know, Justin Cooper, he is capable. You know, Cooper Webb is just fighting for these SMX points. That's definitely his, his whole goal here. Try to stay in the top five and try to beat those guys to Budds Creek with the SMX world championship points. That, that in and of itself would be a. Would be a huge win for him. So watch for that battle. The race within a race between AP Cooper Webb and Justin Cooper to have the top seeding going into Charlotte, like that's a real thing. That's a real battle. It's not like some contrived thing that we had to make up here. This is a. It's a real thing that, that really matters because of the way the points are seeded. Prado, the Waskay. I'll touch on. Before we do that, I want to thank again the sponsors Guts racing. Go to gutsracing.com thank you to them for, for everything that they do. Works connection go to on Instagram worksconnection.com get that pro on start device. They holeshot everything. As you already know, I will be using one at the holeshot challenge at Washougal between Steve Mathis and I. I will have a pro on start device on my motorcycle. TL Speed Shop. 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I take that, a lot of things. It's all natural, highest premium, great quality. The guy that is the co founder is Chris Gethin, if you know anything about him. He's the most, no nonsense, no corner cutting guy I've ever met in my entire life. And that's saying a lot when you know people like Alden Baker. He does not mess around, period. Like I cannot stress that enough. So when you think about the company he's involved with and owns, that's, that's all I really need to tell you. Like this is, this is the best stuff there is, period. Firepower, batteries and hard parts. Check out firepowerparts.com and last but not least, Fly Racing. Thank you to everybody at Fly Racing for everything that you do for me and allow me to do so. The last guy that we're going to talk about today is Jorge Prado and that was a big step forward if you think about Jorge's summer. It's been awful. It's been awful. Like, how else can you say it other than it's been a terrible experience for Jorge Prado. Last weekend was better in my opinion. Now I think the most interesting part of that is he doesn't think it was better. I think he expected himself to be really good in the sand. And so anything less than a podium at the end of the day or winning was a huge letdown. That's fine. I don't see it that way. But he does, he certainly does. So that's, that's a really tough mindset in my opinion because he's not really close to winning right now. He's really unhappy with his bike, he's really unhappy with his team. I'm sure he sees Them trying. It's not like you guys quit. You guys aren't trying like that. That's a different thing. But it's. It's a zero sum game. You know, either you're doing good or you're not, and you're winning or you're not. That's kind of where Jorge's mind is, and it's. It feels a little unfair or inappropriate for him to be so cut and dry with winning because he's not really even close to doing it. But it's all he's ever done. So that changes the calculus or the algebra of how you come to a is this going well or not? Answer. For most people like myself, I look at it objectively. I don't have any emotion involved. I don't have any skin in the game at all. I look at it and say, it's been awful. This was a gigantic step forward. You qualified well. Your starts were much better, your pace was much better, and until you crashed, the results were much better. Now, Ben Townley, who I talked with about this, says, well, the frustration is because he crashed twice. This is not. This guy's not a crasher. This is true. The guy never crashes. The crashing is because. Is because he is pushing so, so hard, like, way, way harder than he would like to or normally does to try to get some sort of result out of himself and the motorcycle. And that frustration of crashing is because I'm. He's. He's having to ride so far over his limit to get something productive done. It's a great point. I can't really argue it. I actually agree with it. But in the end, big picture, I think you just have to look at it and say, okay, all that's true. Understand? But at the end of the day, this is what you have. This is the deal you signed. I'm sure he rode the bike. This is what you signed up for. So you gotta make the most of it. You can't just spend every single day, every waking hour, every that. To anybody with ears complaining like, that's. That's not accomplishing anything. You're not doing yourself or anybody any good. If anything, you're doing a lot of. A lot of damage to your relationship with Cali, to, you know, the. The optimism and good standing with your bosses, who would be like Bruce Sternstrom, Dan Fahey, I don't know who else, you know, administratively at Kawasaki, but certainly there are people there that are like, dude, we pay this guy 2 or 3 million, let's say 3 million, and he's Just trashing, trashing our motorcycle. Like that's not good. That's not good on any front. Make no mistake. That's. That's not taken well by anybody over there. So this is what he's, he's feeling a lot of frustration is the point. Probably much more so than we even know. Because for him to be. Think about if somebody was paying you. I don't know the number. Let's say it's 3 million because I think it's somewhere close to that. Maybe it's a little less. Somebody was paying you 3 million. You go out and you're just blasting them about the bike and saying you need more power. Sand you, you know, you're far behind all the things he's been saying. Racer X interviews, interview whatever. Audio interviews, whatever. Where it's, it's everywhere. Vital interview. Imagine how that would go over at your place of employment. I can tell you it wouldn't go over well at mine. It would not like that would not be received with a smile. It probably received with a stern warning and I don't know. I've signed a lot of contracts in my life and usually you cannot portray the products in a bad light. Like that is. That's a pretty. As an ambassador, a contractor of any company that you are there to lift up and portray positively. That's make no mistake, that's why he's there is to make Kawasaki look good. So people want to go buy Kawasaki products. He's kind of doing the opposite of that. Not a good look for Jorge Prado. And I know the point of that comment is think how frustrated and how angry he has to be to get to a point where you're willing to say these things about someone that's paying you $3 million. That's the point. And I think he has a three year deal. So let's say it's at least 7.5 and upwards of nine plus million dollars. You pay me that kind of money, you will never hear a bad word. Like I may say like we have work to do. You know, we're. I'm trying to get used to a new bike, new chassis. You know, it's a lot of learning on both. Like fine, I don't know, maybe he's so rich he doesn't care. But I just, I'm thinking about how mad I would have to be to say things like that to be this kind of out front of being frustrated. I who I know firsthand that he's really angry with things and it's, it's Starting to spell out. So bringing it back to Red Bud. He needs to show us what he showed us at Southwick. If he's not happy with how Southwick went at all, which he wasn't, he at least needs to show us what he did. And I don't think he's going to. That's the problem. I don't think he's going to be the same guy he was in the sand. Like, qualify top three or whatever it was, you know, like fastest in the second session by quite a bit. Top three in the start is possible. Like it starts. He's such a great starter. That's possible. But run second for a long, like, I don't, I just don't. I don't think those things are going to happen. Like, I'm happy to be wrong. No problem. I'll be the first one to admit, yep, he was the same guy. Even better. Like, good for him. I would love to see that happen, but I don't think that's going to happen. And that is a big, big problem in the world of Jorge Prado, in my opinion, because. Because he's going backwards. Like, you take a big step forward, in my opinion, regardless of what he thinks, you immediately take another step backwards, your confidence is going to get destroyed. All the goodwill that he built up from Southwick because people like myself and the media are saying, yeah, that was a lot better. That was a lot better. Like signs of life, you show up at Redbud and you get your butt kicked again, you're an eighth all day. God forbid you're battling with Kairoli who's 40 years old. I don't think that'll happen, but it could, man. You just undo a lot of positivity and a lot of just optimism that maybe he, you know, optimism may not be the right word because I don't think he's optimistic at all. But outside of him, objective optimism, is that even a thing? I'm going to use it. The objective optimism was certainly prevalent leaving Southwick and that will all be undone. Like, it'll be gone in a flash if he struggles again. So that's, that's what he's up against. That's, that's what's staring him right in the face, is you better be good again or else all the comments, all the sideways looks, all the, all the question marks will immediately be there once again for horrible Jorge Prado. So big weekend amongst a lot of big weekends. I think this one's, this one's big, like, and I think it's a little sneaky as to why it's big, but I do think it's really important. So keep an eye on that. That's it for this week. This might be the longest one ever, an hour and 16 minutes, but I enjoyed it. You didn't get to see it. But I just walked the entire campus of Notre Dame and. Beautiful place. Thanks for listening and we'll talk to you soon. See you.