Jason Thomas (0:00)

A pulp MX Network production. A cerebral and experienced look into the racing action from the week that was. This is Industry Seating with Jason Thomas. Presented by Guts Racing Pro, Glow Wash Works Connection, Bass Foundry, TL Speed Shop, Grandstone Boots and Fly Racing. Welcome to the Industry Seating podcast. My name is Jason Thomas and it is July 30, 2025. And I say July 30, but. But it might be July 29 for you because I'm recording this from Europe in the morning and much of the United States is still a day behind me. But that's okay. By the time you hear this, we'll be headed towards the weekend, the second off weekend of this pro motocross break. And for much of the American motocross world, their eyes are on Beretta winds and watching all the things unfold in western Tennessee. It's a huge part of the calendar and there have been additions to it. You know, I think Loretta's is still the biggest race of the year, but for a lot of these soon to be professional riders that are, they're still amateurs, they have this SMX next thing which is, I don't want to say stolen spotlight, but it is very, very important. Where Loretta's loomed the largest and it was really, it was the decision maker for riders careers, were they going to get a ride, moving into the pro class? Like there are a lot of things hinging on this one week at Loretta's. Well, now I think you have these nine SMX next races that change that. You know, the supercross races, the. What were the combine like pro motocross portions like, they just give more insight as to how racers will perform at the next level when they go to the professional ranks. Just kind of what that will look like versus having to decipher and make really big decisions based off of a few motos at Loretta's. On a kind of a weird track, Loretta's is not all that indicative of what national racetracks are like in my opinion. It's pretty small, there's no elevation, it's really ruddy. You know, a lot of the riders don't really like the dirt. So you don't get like. I think the California riders maybe are at a little bit of a disadvantage just because they don't ride this type of dirt all that often. So for the amateurs, you know, 65, 85, you know, in the B riders, yes, it is wildly important and I think that is where, and I heard someone share this point. So it's not 100 mine entirely, but I do Agree to it or agree with it that the emphasis of Loretta Wins has simply shifted younger. That's it. Like everything else is the same, but at the very top. SMX Next has absorbed the levels of importance and everything else has shifted lower. For the riders to be so critically valuable for this race and their development and their ability to get onto Team Green or you know, Monster Energy, Yamaha, Star Racing's program, like those are kind of the places to be right now. And you know, of course KTM and other things too. But I think if you get picked by Star right now that is the most enviable spot and I think you're going to see Landy Gordon go there. Carson Wood already made the jump. That is the landing spot of choice. But it comes with a lot of pressure and a lot of expectation for those guys too. So anyway, that is what's happening in the US right now. It's all eyes on Loretta Wins for the pro guys. They're getting some much needed time off. They, you know, probably didn't ride a whole lot last week. They probably got back into it this week. I heard guys like Sexton and some other guys were starting to put in a few SMX or excuse me, Super Motocross playoffs laps like on a different type of racetrack. And I don't know how prevalent that is, but I did hear Sexton say it and it would just kind of be a little bit of a. So kind of a warm up for it. You know, they would go through the paces, maybe get a few ideas for bike settings that they could start working out with the team and give them a baseline setting for where they want to be when they get to full on riding for smx. So it feels early. But if you're a guy like Sexton who's out of the championship, you have nothing to lose and you have your all eyes on those playoff rounds. Then it's not too early. It's really not like why, why would it be too early if that's what you're eyeing at this point? You know, for Jet, yes, if you rode one day, okay. But you can't shift your focus yet. You have three rounds to go in a championship that you are dominating you in my opinion, you don't want to take your eye off the ball too much. It's okay to maybe a little bit dabble, you know, remember he's the two time defending, you know, SMX world champion like that. He's done it both years so he knows what that is. And you know he did race last year on the 25 bike for the first time. So he'll have an idea of what that should be like. Also, you just don't want to lean into it too much. Where a guy like Sexton, he could. And I would even say Tomac, too. Like, they could lean into it much more and try to get ahead of the game when we show up to Charlotte. So different strokes for different folks. The one constant is guys are getting some rest. Like, you have to take some time off during this period. And the best time. I would say there's two different ways to look at it. You could either stay in the grind the first week after Washougal, which would be very difficult to do because your body's just screaming at you for time off. I don't think that's the best way to do it. But you could take that first week and just say, nope, I'm just going to do my normal thing, normal days. And then when I get to Friday, then I will take the next, like, seven or eight days off into the bike. And you could still train. You want to keep your body active, do recovery, bicycle rides, stretching, all that stuff. But you could take several days off the motorcycle. And even if you wanted to stay in it the first week, take the weekend off, maybe ride a little bit like Monday or Tuesday. And when I mean ride, I mean like, play, ride, Go have some fun. Like, it doesn't have to, like, do not be doing hard laps. But, you know, may okay if you. If you're like, you know what I need? I just need to stay sharper than that. Cool. Do a few sprint laps, but keep the. Keep the exertion level low. Even if you have to find some intensity a little bit. Practice starts, whatever, but just to just keep your senses dialed in. If you want to do that, like, your reflexes and all that, that's fine. But then I would say take more time off after that. You know, like, ride maybe Tuesday, and then take the rest of those five days off. So you get like five days in a row of not riding. And then when you come back to Monday of this coming Monday, which would be leading up to Iron man, and after Loretta's is over, then you just want to be back on your normal program. You would. You would pretend that you raced on Saturday, you flew home on Sunday, and then you were back in your Monday program. The other way to do it is take the full first week off. Like, you leave Washougal and you don't ride again until this past Monday, which would give you eight days off. The Motorcycle or I guess seven, you know, the eighth day you'd be riding again. Then you would pick up like a normal ish week. Maybe not quite as brutal, but just a normal week. Put in some motos, put in a few sprints, you know, like maybe don't just crush yourself off the bike that week, but something that resembles a normal week and that's going to kind of get you back in the flow. You then take this coming weekend off again, you would be, you would be off like, okay, can you do a recovery ride in the morning? Like spin out on your bicycle and stretching? Sure, that's, that's productive. I think in all cases, all the time. You never really want to just completely let your body do nothing. Like that's not a net positive. You always want to keep it like somewhat active, keep lactic acid, you know, burned off and it's just good for your body to stay in that routine. And then this coming Monday again you would be full program. Like you would just be your normal race week program. You know, ride maybe Monday, Wednesday, you know, typically fly Thursday or Friday, maybe ride press, maybe you don't. But just a couple of different ways to, to approach this. But as you have noticed, the recurring theme in those options was to take time off. Like you, you have to rest now because you're about to go for a stretch of six out of seven weekends in a row and that has the playoffs into it. And for Sexton Tomac, Jet Hunter Deegan and a bunch of other guys, you're going to race motocross the nations after the playoffs. And anyway, you'll have a weekend off again, but you'll have the see, but you won't be able to rest because you're going to be wanting to be ready for motocross the Nations. Like maybe you take a few days off that first week, but this motocross nations is too important to just kind of like, oh, season's over, I'm going to check out now and then I'll just show up and race. You can't do that. Like, that's just not. If you're going to do that, then don't agree to race. The race is simply what it comes down to. You just need to bow out if that's how you're going to go about it. Because I promise you, I promise you this to be true. If you, if anyone does that, they will regret it when they get to the race. Make no mistake about that. They will be at the race, feel the pressure of it, feel how much it means understand what this race is, that race is about. And they will wish that they had stayed locked in in the time between Las Vegas finale and Motocross nations. And that doesn't mean they can't have fun. That doesn't mean they can't go out after the race in Vegas or go have fun the off weekend in between. That's fine, that's almost expected. But staying in your practice routine, staying in your training routine so you're still sharp when you get to Ironman in October. That, that, that is the most important thing. So anyway, kind of got all over the place there. But before we get into the two topics that I'm going to cover specifically, which are Hayden Deegan's 450 aspirations and what the hell is going on with Jorge Prado. Those are the two topics for today. Before we do that, I want to thank the sponsors of this podcast. Guts Racing Works Connection, TL Speed Shop, Grantstone Boots race-rentals.com Sorry, I should have thrown that in with TL Speed Shop. That is their new website. I was searching for that. Firepower parts. We have a ton of things there from Firepower and that is a WPS owned company, but batteries. A lot of the teams use Firepower batteries, but we have so many other things there. Chains, sprockets, handlebars, clutch assemblies, ramps, stands. Like there's. And there's a bunch more in the hopper for Firepower. So you're going to see Firepower get pushed pretty hard. And they were already a title sponsor of a race team. So that, I guess that goes without saying. But you're going to see a lot more of that in the future because Firepower is about to. Yeah, we're about to, as we like to say, pour gas on the fire with Firepower. Fire Racing, of course. Check out the 2026 line at flyracing.com that is out now. So let's get into this thing. I have notes. I am prepared. It is about 7am here in Eindhoven, Netherlands and it's a really nice city. Like, trust me, I don't want to live in Europe at all. It's fine. I love visiting. I'm always, always ready to go home when it's time to go home. It doesn't matter if it's four or five days, which is typically my stay. I would usually get here Thursday and go home Monday. That's a very normal European trip for me. This one is like 12 days and I will be very ready to go home on Monday and then I'm Going to come back in November and do eicma, which is a trade show in Milan, Italy. And then I will stay back for the Paris Supercross in November. So that's going to be another, I don't know, 10 to 12, 14 day trip. I don't know what that's going to look like, but I'll no sooner than later. So it's a lot of Europe for me in 2025, but I'm enjoying it so far. Would. Wouldn't mind being home sometimes, but I'm also trying to take in the culture and appreciate how fortunate I am to, to be here representing WPS and Fly Racing in this capacity. Getting to be on television alongside Paul Malin at 2Gps. Like there's, there's a lot to be very thankful for. So I try to stay out of my own way with the man. I wish I was home. I'm not home enough type. Type stuff. I just have to kind of push that out of my mind and understand this opportunity doesn't come along all that often and it's very rare for people to get an opportunity like this. So a little bit of perspective for me, which I'm sure most people don't care, but just wanted to share kind of where, what I'm doing and where I'm at on this. But let's talk Deegan. That's why you're here. So this idea got floated and it was first broken by, you know, and I had heard it floated a few times, like, hey, would he? Or could he? And then Jason Wygant breaks this story. And for those who are wondering, I love Weege. Like, Weege is one of my favorite, if not my favorite person at the races. He is truly, truly a great dude. Like, he, he is awesome. He's great at his job. He's even. He's even better person than that. And so when I saw it, I was like, ooh, that's a big headline to break. Because you know you're just going to trigger a lot of people. Like, Deegan is a. Is a flashpoint subject on all fronts, good and bad. So when you, when you break something like that, you just have to know that it comes with, with a lot. And he talked to Bobby Reagan, who's the team owner, and Bobby basically said, hey, we gave him the green light that he can do this if he wants to. Now Bobby is. Bobby loves to stir the pot. He loves to be controversial. He kind of doesn't care what other people think. He marches to the beat of his own drum. He's self made. If you disagree with him, he simply doesn't care. And he'll tell you straight to your face he doesn't care. So he's not scared to go against the grain in this way and just put it out there. So when he does this and Weege basically gets the okay to run this story, who knows if Brian even knew, Brian and Hayden had even known that Bobby told Weegee this. Like, it's very likely or very possible, I should say is probably a better way to put it, that there wasn't communication. And Brian and Hayden were like, whoa, where did this come from? Right. And Brian and Hayden certainly knew that they were considering this. Like, that is not the point. But Bobby says, hey, this can and will happen if he has the title wrapped up. I don't know that Brian and Hayden were there where they're like, yeah, we're doing this. I think they were looking at it and saying maybe. So it puts them in a little bit of a precarious spot because now they're kind of going forward with this thing. And I don't know that they were there yet. Maybe they were, maybe. And why I'm saying that is, is weed ran the story, then Brian comments fake news on it, basically negating those facts, you know, which is just brutal for weed. Like, that is really, really tough. And I don't know if we cares or not, but that's a tough thing. When you run a story and then literally the person involved or the dad goes on and says that's not true. That's a really tough spot to be in for weed. And you know, Racer X typically doesn't run controversial type things early because of this very thing. They don't want the blowback of being incorrect or misinformed or anything. They want to be a reputable source. And you, and you typically, in the rule of journalism, you need multiple sources. That's it. Like, I don't, I don't. It's not like I'm some media guru, but that's what I hear a lot is, you know, trust but verify is. Is a saying for a reason. You listen to somebody you talk to, like Bobby Reagan, but then you need to go verify elsewhere. And I have no idea what we just pathway was here. Maybe he's like, hey, if the team owner is telling me this is a thing, that's good enough for me, which is true, that's probably true. I don't have any reason to say that's not true. But this is. This is the downside of A potential he said, she said type. Thing is you get someone involved firsthand or damn near it saying, why did you say that? That's not true. So it's, It's, I don't know, kind of put Ouija in a tough spot, in my opinion. There's a lot of backlash, which of course there always is with, with Hayden Deegan. And so I want to walk through the pros and cons of why he should or shouldn't do this if the opportunity arises. So let's start. Let's do it. Let's go with the cons first. Now, it's not even a given that this is going to be possible because It's, I think, 44 points, something like that, and I should know that, but I'm pretty sure it's 44. And that means that Hayden needs to be seven points better, I guess six, maybe better than Joe Weaving Unadilla. That's not a given. Joe's one two out of the last three overalls and you could argue that had his rear break not gone out at Spring Creek, he would have won three out of the last three overalls. So there's. There's definitely no guarantee that this is even going to be possible. Second, Joe is very good at Unadilla. And so if Hayden is ahead, let's say he beats Joe at Ironman, which is certainly possible. And it's a few points like, there's no guarantee he's going to beat him at Unadilla because Joe's great there. Like, yes, Joe got hurt there last year, but Joe has a really strong track record at Unadilla. So I don't know. All this may be for. Not even if they want to do it. It may be a moot point because the points don't allow it. Like there. He just doesn't. He doesn't wrap it up at Unadilla. So there, There is that aspect of it. Now, let's say that he does. Let's say he goes out and he's healthy at Ironman Smashes. Everybody gets the job done at unadilla and it's 52 points or whatever. It doesn't matter. But let's assume that it's possible he can step away from the 250 and go race the 450 buds and the title is complete. There are reasons I don't like this and I'm going to lay those out first. I don't think that he's ridden the 450 enough. Now, supposedly he was going to spend time on the 450 on the break and get a feel for it in preparation for that decision making. Now, I don't know what to believe on Hayden's social media because he's really tricky on purpose. He's been posting stuff in California, in Havasu. I don't know where he is. He might be home hammering motos on a 450 for all I know. But he's very good at kind of making you look at his left hand when the real story's in his right hand. He's a pro at that for all the things you want to say about him and you don't like the things he says and the way he acts. And I get all that. I agree. Sometimes he's good at misdirection. He's good at not ever letting you kind of know what's going on behind the scenes or where his head is at or where they're. What they're trying to. The message they want to show you is not always what the real message is. And I don't know that I've ever seen anyone as quite as good as he is with misdirection because you wouldn't know if he was on a. On a tube getting towed behind a boat or in Havasu at their. You know, they. They have these. These properties there or in California, in LA with his buddies, like, downtown la. Like, I'm sure he has a huge Rolodex of photos that he just pulls from, just to keep everybody guessing, which is. It's kind of fun, honestly. But let's say he is riding the 450. I don't think this is enough time on the bike to be ready to go against those guys. It's just not. You can't ride the bike for a week and be like, yeah, man, I'm dialed. I am so ready. Like, I don't believe that that's. That's a thing. Doesn't mean he can't go really fast. Like, that's not the point. The point is the expectation from the outside world is for him to. To be in the fight right away. And I don't even think that's fair, but it kind of doesn't matter. Doesn't matter if. If I think it's fair or not, that that is what the average person, the average fan, the YouTube viewer, everybody's going to think is like, oh, it's on when he. When he does this. And I don't think he has enough time for that to be a fair expectation. In the end, it's not even. It's not his fault. I just don't think when you look at the situation, you'd be like, yeah, like, no worries. A week on the bike against guys that are the best in the world, no problem. Like, that doesn't seem, that doesn't seem rational at all. Second, you have the SMX World Championship looming and this would be 3smx2 video smx world championships in a row. We know how much these things pay. It's 500k from, you know, Feld Entertainment and MX Sports. Like that, that's no joke. Like, that is probably more than his salary, I would say right now, if it's definitely more than his salary total. So how can you not factor that in as being incredibly important and you want to stay locked in on the 250, your best self to go win that thing. I mean, Shimoda and these guys are not going to be slow at smx. And you could say, well, Deegan crushed everybody and that's fair. He was really good last year in smx. But I just think it's an added risk that you don't need to take when it feels like he's on his way to winning. He would win Supercross, Supercross title, Pro Motocross title, SMX World Championship. Again, like, that's a lot of money he would be racking up in 2025. And I just don't see a reason to distract yourself from those goals. Like, those are great goals, like check the boxes that are there to be checked instead of taking your eye off the ball. Like, I just don't think there's a lot of wisdom in that. I guess the last of these is I simply just don't think he's ready. And I was, I was making sure that I didn't have any other things I wanted to throw in there. But this is probably the most important one. I don't think he's ready for Jet and Sexton and you could say Tomac and Hunter and those guys too. I don't really know where he'll slot in, but he's, he's going to get there eventually. I do believe that. I do think his trajectory will get him in the fight at the front, but I don't think he's ready for that right now. And the last thing you want to do is come in a little bit behind the eight ball. Like you don't want to come in to guys when they're firing on all cylinders. They're in mid season form, everything, like it's just another gate Drop on the same bike and the same doing the same things that they've been doing. And now you have this guy show up and think he's going to just insert himself into their fight. That's a really, really difficult thing to do. I've watched it a lot and when. And I think it's very underestimated how much momentum riders have late in the season. When, and you know, there's a, there's a secondary kind of wrinkle to that is they may think Hayden and Brian or whoever may think that, hey, it's going to be the last race. These guys are going to kind of be mailing it in. That gives us a real chance. If we come in hot with all this intensity, they're going to kind of roll over. Well, I think in theory that might be true, except if Deegan shows up, I think it's going to offset whatever lackluster feelings they may have. He is going to split, spark some fire for a lot of these guys. So I think if they're feeling like they can come in and take advantage of it being the last race, I think he is too big of a story to allow that to happen. So it almost works against them in that way. And I just don't think he's ready yet. Not, not for where he needs to be. I just don't think he's, he's there yet. Can he go out and be top five? I think so. But can he go beat Jed or Sexton? I think strongly no. Like, strongly no. Like he, he doesn't always beat the 250 guys. You know, like, it's, it's not like he goes out and just dominates everyone all the time. There have been times where he did this season, but not lately, not since he crashed at Redbud. It really hasn't been that. And those guys are just, there are different, different cats. They're on a different level than Hammaker and Joe Shimoda and whoever you want to throw in there. They're different than those guys. They just are. That, that's just reality. That's why they're making millions of dollars in the 450 class is because they are simply better than the guys that Hayden is racing right now full stop. Like, I don't really have to qualify it any more than that. Those guys are simply better than the guys he's racing with. Like, case in point, look at like, like RJ was really good. 250 this year. Last year. Look at how far back he is from Jet and Sexton. Or you know, like not all the time but just on an, on an average kind of look where, look where RJ is compared to those guys. And that doesn't mean that Hayden won't be better than rj. I don't know if he will or not. I'm just saying look at the gap there and that will give you kind of an idea of how good Jet and Hunter when he's on Washougal was a bad race for him. But Sexton's level when he's on, like it's a, it's a really, really high bar is, is really all. My point is and I think if Hayden doesn't get a good start, which there's no guarantee he's going to get a good start. If you look at his overall performances, starts are really hit and miss. If he gets a bad start in the 450 class, I think he's going to regret this decision. I really do. I think if it starts our average and say he starts 12th, I think he's going to look up somewhere and see Jet half track around because he's going to be stuck in traffic and Jet's going to be gone and he's going to be, he's going to be angry that he did this. Maybe not publicly. They're really good at kind of saying the right things and handling, you know, the PR side really well. But I think deep down if it went that way and he started badly and just wasn't able to get anywhere near the front, they would regret kind of making this move when it, when it wasn't necessary. They didn't have to do this. So in the end I wouldn't do this. But I do want to lay out the pros for why this could be a good decision. And I think to make a, to make a big decision you need to look at every possible angle of it, good and bad and then weigh them all out and try to make the wisest decision possible. So the pros of this, listen, if he decides to do this, it's going to be a media frenzy. His YouTube page, he's going to get every headline. He's going to be everywhere. I could see him getting on the COVID of Racer x on the 450, like just anywhere and everywhere. You're going to see Hayden Deegan. He will be the number one story in Moto for five to six days and then if, depending on how it goes, maybe longer, that's some upside. Like I think it's, that's worth considering. Like that's they are great at the media side and to completely disregard that aspect of it would be foolhardy in my opinion. Like, that wouldn't make any sense at all to me. So it has to be in there somewhere. Also, I think this is likely the lowest pressure way for Hayden to ever make his 450 debut. I just gave you all these reasons why I don't think it's a good idea. But he's going to move up to the 450 eventually. When he does, there's going to be a ton of pressure. Limelight, it's going to be a spectacle no matter what. So this might be the best way to do it when, when there's really nothing to lose there. That is, that's, that's a positive. Like, I, I don't. In the end, I still think this is not the right idea for all the reasons I laid out earlier. But that is a real thing where they're looking at this saying, well, we're gonna do it and if, if I'd rather do it with nothing on the line than I would starting a championship where it's everything to lose, you know, so there, that is another aspect of it as well. I mentioned earlier that, you know, late in the championship, many riders are just trying to bring it home. They're trying to stay healthy. They're thinking about the playoffs. It's a long summer. They're just going through the motions. Like, that is a, that is a real thing. That's very common in any championship. I don't care which class, but I would say even more so in the 450 class and I used it to my benefit a lot. I would really try to harness my best self at the last races and you can get a great result if you fully engage and push yourself to be your best self. When everybody else is kind of looking around going, hey, man, can't wait to get home and be off for a minute because I'm over it like that. That's a very real scenario in this sport. So if you're Hayden, Brian, you know, Bobby, whoever, whoever you want to throw into that category over there, Rich Simmons, everybody, all the decision makers on that team, you could be thinking, well, let's take advantage of that. Like if guys like AP or whoever, you know, like, I don't, we'll get into Prado, don't worry. But whoever he thinks he would be battling against, Hunter, if they're going to just kind of like shoulder shrug their way through Bud's Creek, then you go for you like that's. A, that's a real chance to like kind of like upset the apple card and say, no way man, I am all the way in. And if Hayden rides a 450, you know, he will be like, this is a huge deal. So he is going to be fully engaged where everybody else is kind of like waking up on Saturday morning at Buds and they can't wait until Saturday night and everything's done at Buds that that's, that's possible. Like there is that. Like let's take advantage of their indifference and make the most of it. Like, I think that's the most succinct way I can put it is their indifference can be your gain on a day like that. I would push back though, and I already mentioned this, I would push back and say that if Hayden shows up, the perceived indifference of other riders will be lessened because it's Hayden and Hunter will not want to relent to Hayden even if he doesn't care. Like, he's kind of like, ah, my position of points is locked up. It doesn't really matter. The fact that Hayden's there will change that dynamic for him mentally. It truly would. So it might be kind of a like fool's gold thinking that these riders won't be motivated, you know, simply because you're, you're Hayden Deegan. Like that, that changes the equation a bit in that way. And the last point, I think this is a good point and this was, I give Ben Townley credit for making this point but he doesn't, he doesn't believe that Hayden's ready yet. Not for Jet and Sexton. Like he's, he's very outspoken in that, in that aspect. Just technique wise, all the things. He's just not quite there yet. And I don't even think it's like quite there. He's just, he's not there yet, period. If you're Brian and Brian's wiser than I think a lot of people gives him credit for. Like, I think he understands racing really well. It's all he's ever done is racing. And I think he knows his kid really well. He knows his kid's capabilities. He understands a lot of the ins and outs of it. He also understands that he's dealing with a kid that is larger than life. He's making a gazillion dollars. He's trying to keep his kids feet on the ground and you know, like just humble a little bit and understand like it's not going to be easy when you move up to the 450s. So I think there could be a chance that Brian is like, we're gonna do this because I need Hayden to understand what this is like, I need him to understand how good these guys are. And right now he kind of like, no big deal. I can, I can beat those guys. I think that's possible. I think it's possible that Brian is looking at it like, yep, this is going to be a really hard day for Hayden but he needs this, he, he needs this wake up call so that when it's for real next summer that he takes it seriously and he knows exactly how hard it's going to be and that will affect his training, it'll affect his preparation, it'll affect every aspect of Hayden's racing life. This hard lesson that he might learn and Brian doesn't know for sure if Hayden's going to struggle or not. But I think Brian's looking at it as, okay, best case we go out and we're right in the fight. Like that would be awesome. Worst case, we have a bad day and Hayden learns a really, really valuable lesson here. And that sets him up so much better for 2026. Like, I think that's a real thing. I, I think that's absolutely possible in this, you know, this calculus that's being worked out about should he or shouldn't he? I think that has to be, has to be talked about. Like where Brian in the back of his mind's going, yep, we might get smoked but it also might be the best thing for him. So I just think that's a really interesting aspect of this whole, this whole play is the worst possible scenario might be the best outcome possible. I don't know. I just think that that's a fascinating way to kind of look at it. Okay, we're going to switch to, and I wanted to weave. Deegan was saying, I don't think you should do this. I think you should wait, be over prepared next summer and that's that. But we'll see. We will see. Maybe it's, it's, it may all be for not if he doesn't go out and win the next two weekends, then it's not going to happen anyway. So it might all be for, for just a waste of time to go through the mo, you know, this whole conversation. But it is, it is fun to talk about. Okay, let's talk about Jorge Prado. And you know, there's been a lot of jokes like the Prado pod, but really I think it deserves this level of analysis. Like it deserves this conversation it deserves to be the preeminent convo because I'm in Europe right now and everyone is in disbelief over here about what they're watching with Jorge Prado in America, full stop. Like, they are in disbelief. They simply don't know what's happening. It's like gravity stopped working for Jorge Prado to look the way he does on this motorcycle. And I've had, I've talked to people that are like, yeah, man, it's just, you know, like a guy called in the Pulp show and really nice guy basically said, I just don't think the guys are that good. Like, if, you know. And what, Like, I fell out of my, almost fell out of my chair. And I actually, like, relate. I told Ben Townley this, I told some people over here this are like, yeah, this guy. And I don't know how serious he was being, but I, I, I think he believes this. He's like, yeah, if Geister came over here, he would be battling with RJ. And that's not a knock against RJ. I'm not trying. RJ's riding incredibly well. RJ's doing better than I thought he would be doing. But there is another level. Allah, Jett Sexton Tomac, when he's on Geyser, is there? Like, look at Matterly last year. And I've said that. And the guy said, well, that's on a GP track. Okay, fine. Look at motocross nations for the last decade. What more do you need to show that those guys can ride? When they're in their element and doing their thing and comfortable, they're as good as our guys are. That's just a fact. Or better, that's just a fact. And I'm as patriotic and pro America as you'll ever find, period. But I, I'm also realistic. Like, I, I'm not going to just completely disregard logic in the face of that. And so this isn't like Prado just doing his normal thing and it's, he's, yeah, just guys are just slower, you know, the Euro guys are just slower. The American guys. No, get out of here with that. That's not true. It's absolutely lunacy. It's insane to think that. But that doesn't explain really what's going on with Prada. So let's, let's walk through this. I'm going to take a sip of coffee, apologize, apologies for doing that in your ear, but let's walk through this. So the first thing that happened, Prado came over in 2024 and rode five supercrosses, which was fine. It didn't go very well. He was like 10th a lot, which is fine. You know, like he rode what, four or five races. But he did the important thing, which was stay healthy, and then got his contract signed for 25. And I think he signed it at Argentina, which was February or March. But I think verbally they were kind of close. In January, Day one, I saw, you know, I've talked about on this podcast, I saw Bruce Sternstrom and Oscar Oanza deep talks at A1. So I kind of knew it was going that way. Like, you just don't spend that much. It was like a two hour conversation. You don't sit there and talk to someone. Those two power players, you know, like his agent is Oscar Oenza. Bruce Durmstrom is, is incredibly influential at Master Energy Kawasaki. You don't sit and talk to someone for that long at A one without trying to get something done, simply because it's the networking race of the year. You can't waste that much time, nor would you waste that much time unless you are really trying to get something accomplished like that. That is factual and really not arguable. So when I saw that happening at the press day at A1, I was like, they're working out a deal. Like, they're working through every element. How do they execute this? Time frames, money, bonuses, how does Monster Europe factor into all? Like, there's a lot to process in that conversation that they had a lot of time moving forward to do. But those early talks, you know, like, okay, we want to be here, we want you here. Both sides are in agreement on that. Then you start working on, okay, what is it like? What's the numbers? What are the numbers look like? How do we make this transition smooth? What's the timing? Can we get an opportunity to ride the motorcycle while we're in California? You know, like, without anybody knowing, can we rent a track somewhere? There's a lot to kind of sort through. But that was when all that went down. Then he signed the contract at the first GP in Argentina and then off we go. So he comes back to California in 2025. Practices. October, November, December, Supercross. Here goes racing and gets a really good start and he's. I don't know, he's getting shuffled back pretty quick. Like he, he. It was very similar to 2024 where he's just like, he's not good enough to run with the front guys. He's just not. And that's to be expected. He's not as good at Supercross as they are, you know, again, I'm not. That's not a derogatory statement, that's just fact. So he's kind of getting pushed back. It's fine. He goes to San Diego, more of the same. Then we come back to Anaheim and in practice he has a, he has a pretty big get off, jumps into the net, dislocates his shoulder. And now we have a big problem because the goal from Kawasaki was, you're here to learn in Supercross, do not hurt yourself at all costs. We don't care what the result is. We do not care. You won't be held accountable. There is no pressure. We don't care what place you get. Learn, don't get hurt. I was told this is, this was relayed to him many times. So when you're told that you're really just fighting against your own ego, the one thing you can't do is let ego get in the way and say f that I'm a two time MXGP world champ and two more in MX2. Like, I'm not going backwards like this, not doing it. No way. And you start pushing more, you start taking more chances, you start taking more risk and before you know it, you're on your head like that. That can't happen. You cannot allow that to happen. And you know you get hurt in practice, so part of that is you can't take big risk trying to get a good lap time in. And if you're going for this, it was like this big quad into a corner. If things aren't perfect, back out of it, you know, like he went a little bit long, which it wasn't a gigantic mistake, but he went a little bit long and he went then like geat out into the next bump and then that shot him into the berm, over the berm and off we go. It's a very easy mistake to make. And I know it's racing and things can happen, that's fair. But man, you've got to, you've got to just understand what the, what the ask is here. You have to understand what, what you can do and can't do and really, really take that to heart. And crashing on a quad in practice is not something you can do. Dislocating your shoulder and having surgery and sitting out for multiple months, not something you can do. And I know I'm preaching to the choir now. Like he had to live through this and surgery and rehab and I get it, like there's nothing to be gained from rehashing all that, but that's the first mistake. That's the first problem in the story of what we see now. That's where it all started. Past that, everything he is doing is brand new. New bike, new team, new personnel, new tracks, new life in California, new food, new travel, new everything. Like everything is new. Like there's not one thing that has remained the same outside of like his parents and his talent. And that's kind of it. Like new gear, new people. Like in every aspect is, it's new. I think he even broke up with his girlfriend in this, in the span. And I don't know if that matters or not. I don't know if that's affecting him or not. But I'm, I don't, I don't see her around anymore and I used to see her all the time. So I'm guessing that they broke up. I shouldn't be rumor mongering because I have no confirmation of that. But I have not seen her. So maybe that's something in there too, I don't know. But it just adds to the newness of the situation. If that is true, if they went separate ways, like relationships end, it's fine. But I would just say if that is true, that's just another variable here that he's working through because they had been together a very long time and they might still be together. I don't know. So I don't, I don't want to be like breaking news because I have no, no idea if that's true. I just don't see her around and I used to see her everywhere he went all the time. Like they were inseparable and it just seems like something has shifted there. Anyway, I'm being really careful with that because I don't, that's personal and I don't have any facts. It's just something I've noticed. And these things can all have a cumulative effect on your performance. You know, coming off an injury is the most, one of the most difficult things you can do too. You lose all this momentum that you've built up over years. Like you kind of go to this, this big reset. And he hasn't done that in a long time. He hasn't had a big injury in a long time. So he, he's having to kind of start over, fitness and momentum and all these things in, in unfamiliar surroundings. And it's not like he's just like kind of sliding back into his favorite pair of shoes. He's got a do all of this new and coming off an injury. So he's not his best self. It just adds to how difficult it is. Another aspect of this. Jorge, as a person has this. It's not me, it's something else. If things aren't going wrong, he's not a guy that really goes, yep, I'm not riding well. Like, they're. They're kind of. It's either on or off with that. Like, some guys, Carmichael. Other guys would be like, yeah, man, I. I need to be better. Like, I'm not riding good right now. Where other guys would be like, no, it's not. I'm doing what I'm supposed to be doing. The bike isn't right. We made the wrong tire choice. The suspension was wrong. The tracks sucked. Like, that is a different type of person. Like, they're. And it's very, very distinct difference there. Like, I think it's either A or B. And Prado is in the camp of, like, no, I'm. I'm not the problem. Like, and you've heard it in Louis Phillips interviews. Like, he's not saying, I suck. I need to be better. Like, that is not what he's saying. And if you're looking for context, go back and look at, like, Carmichael interviews. When he got beat, he would always say, I just didn't ride very good. I just did not ride good enough to win today. And whether he truly felt like that or not, it's what he said. He may. He may have deep down saying, man, my bike was pile of crap. But he wouldn't put that out there on the front end. And I think he took responsibility for it, which goes a long way. It goes a long way with your fans. It goes a long way with your team, with your mechanic, with your sponsors. Personal accountability is a great attribute to have. And now behind closed doors, if you say, guys, that wasn't it. I'm taking the blame for it. But we got to be better. We got to make better decisions. We. We have to go test because the bike is not good enough. That's fine. They would respect that and listen to it. When you go publicly and put it on blast that the bike is not where you need to be or the people around you are not doing what they need to do. That's a bad thing like that. Doesn't it just. There's no upside in that. There's simply no upside other than you think you're saving face. Personally, I don't think you are at all. I think it makes you look petty and like, you can't absorb blame. Like, you are blameless and you're perfect and everybody else sucks around you. I think that's what it makes you look like. And some of it comes down to culturally. Riders are much more direct in Europe, MotoGP, they just say what they think and it. And people, you know, that's just not how it works really in America. So there is some of that where if that's what he truly thinks, he's just going to tell you instead of protecting other people and taking the hit. You don't find a lot of that in Europe sports, like MotoGP, if the bike sucks, you'll hear them say the bike sucks. Like they just don't hold back. So there is some sort of cultural difference there too. So I don't think that Prado should take all the blame for that approach, but maybe someone should step in and say, hey, that's just, that's not going to accomplish a lot here. I understand that's how it's done where you have raced before. But you're going to alienate a lot of important people here if you go about it that way, because that's not how things are done here. It's just not. It's not how things are done. And the people you are reliant upon, your team, technicians, mechanic, crew chief, they're going to be pissed and you're going to lose. You're going to lose their optimism and their work ethic. It's not like they're going to quit, like physically, but mentally they're going to kind of check out on you. If you hammer them like this publicly, like, that is not going to be received well. And you don't want that. You don't want that on you. I firmly believe you don't want that on you. So anyway, that's kind of part of it is. It's just Jorge's personality is. It's like, it's not me, man. Like I'm doing what I'm supposed to be doing. Other people around me are not. I think there is a real aspect to, to that. Watching this week, I was watching Lucas Koonin ride a couple different days. He rides very similar to how Jorge does. Low rpm, super smooth. They're not a high revving, high intensity type guy. They rely on torque to kind of do what they want the bike to do. It, you know, they want the bike to handle really well in low rpm and I, I don't know, I'm just kind of hypothesizing or theorizing that maybe the Cowie is not as adept at that. Maybe the cowie wants to be ridden at a high rpm. That's where the power is. And it just doesn't respond as well to the way Jorge wants to ride it. I simply don't know that to be true. I'm just looking for ways or the why this isn't working so well. Because when I watched Kunin ride, it reminded me of Prado and the bike was just like Burr Burr. But he's hauling ass. He. He is going so fast, but the bike is barely at any rpm. He's just carrying momentum everywhere. When I watch Jorge right now, he looks like he is riding the wheels off that thing, but it's not working. And I don't think that's his normal style. I don't think that's the way he typically wants to ride. I think he's just kind of forced into this style and it's making him more tired. I think it's wearing him out and it's frustrating him to no end that he has to override the bike to go fast when he doesn't want to. He wants to ride it in his way. And I don't think, I think there's a chance that the bike is not allowing him to ride it the way he wants to. That's a, That's a possibility. I don't know. Just throwing that out there as an idea. Another aspect and sorry, I'm just. I have all these written down. So I'm just going one by one, mentally, for 20, 25 outdoors, he's checked out. I would argue that with anyone. I don't think his heart is in this pro motocross championship anymore. It's been too bad. He's had too much difficulty, too many disappointments, and I just think he's going through the motions for now. I think he, he believes that the bike is not good enough for now and it's not going to get better. They've gone through every option. They don't have any answers. It's not going to get better. So he's just kind of going. He's just riding this thing out for now. And, and he's like, I actually heard from someone who would know that he's been practicing supercross already, trying to think about 20, 26. And I don't know if that, some of that is smx, you know, playoffs practice or what that means, but when I heard that, I was like, what? But seriously, he was already putting in supercross laps right now. So that tells me like he's done with motocross as Far as, like, really trying to get better in a big way. Like, I'll do whatever it takes, no matter what, to be better for Ironman. Like, if you're thinking that way, you're not riding Supercross laps in any way, shape or form, period, period, period. You're not thinking about Ironman. If you're riding Supercross laps in July, I don't know how much more clearly I can make that point. So I think he's just kind of over it and he's just going to let it be what it is. He's going to go out and try his best. And if it's good, cool. If it's bad, okay, that's. It's been bad anyway, and it's just going to be more bad. So where do we go from here? I think there are a few options. One, he just stays. He continues to work to figure things out. Things get better or they don't. And he just keeps trying to fight through it as much as humanly possible. He just like, hey, we don't really have a choice here. I signed this contract. The bike's not what I want it to be, but I'm a man of my word and I'm going to keep. Just keep plugging away, do the best job I can for Monster and Kawasaki, and I'm going to do my best because that's what I agreed to do. That's. That's one. That's one outcome here. Second outcome, he could leave at the end of the season and they put out a press release and say, hey, we've mutually agreed to part ways. It just wasn't working. And he goes back to Europe in 26. I think this is the most unlikely outcome of all of them because the budgets are now spoken for in Europe. Hurlings is signed for Honda. I think VL is going to sign for Honda. KTM's full. I just. I don't see a place for that to work. Not for what he needs to get paid, although I did hear he would ride for free or close to it. I think him coming back to Europe in 2026 is the least likely scenario. And watch that happen. Watch the watch the least likely thing happen. But I think that's the least likely thing to happen. It's really late, kind of in the cycle for that. And I just can't imagine Cowie and Monster would let him out. I just can't imagine that being a thing. But he does wear fox and if he went to Honda, that's an easy tie in. He would already be in Fox and go to Honda, which is a Fox team. But I just. I don't see that necessarily happening unless it gets a lot worse from here. Like, it would really have to come off the rails. Like, he would have to have a big blowout with management or the team or something for that to happen. At this point, you know, we're going to be in August. I don't know. I just don't think that's going to happen. Another thing, he could go in 27, and I do think this is possible, and maybe even 28 is more likely because he would finish two years of his deal. And I think Cowie and after two years, if it's not working, they'd be like, yeah, man, why are we just going to beat our head against the wall here? This isn't working. Let's just mutually agree to go our separate ways. We've given it our best shot. Two full seasons. It's just not happening. You're not happy with the bike. We're not happy with your performance. No one's winning in this dynamic. It's a really expensive enterprise, so let's just move on. Like, that is. That is very much possible. And also teams would be able to plan for it, you know, if he went into this offseason saying, hey, I'm going to stick it out another year, but I need you guys to make room for me in 27, because I'm coming back, that's. That's very, very, very possible that it goes that way. I would say it's even more possible in 28. And I think, you know, the contracts would end so Prada would have fulfilled his contract. There's no breach. There's no hard conversations about exiting early. You don't have to deal with the public backlash. Like everybody fulfilled every aspect of what they were supposed to do and then you just move on. The other wrinkle of that is I believe that Lucas Koonin is going to stay in Europe for 26 and 27 on KTM and MXGP. That's what I believe is going to happen. I don't. I don't know for sure, but that's what I believe will happen. Then Jorge could come back to the team that he left in 28. Kunin could make the jump to America in that time frame. Like everything winds up budget wise. Prado gets to come back where he wants to be. He didn't have to breach contract decarley Red Bull. KTM to Carly gets a rider back that they already know really well. They don't lose their MXGP contender, like, because they're just basically trading one world class rider for another. Like, I think that's a, that's a very possible outcome. And you know, we're thinking two years ahead here, so who knows? You know, I'm kind of just connecting dots on a whiteboard, but I think that could be a scenario that plays out if it, if it made it that far. Like, it would have to get, you know, it have to. Cowie would have to kind of keep seeing this through and Prada would have to maintain or manage his frustrations to ever get that far along. But I could see it happening. I could absolutely see that happening. But one of those is, I think, going to happen. I think the likelihood of Jorge Prado staying in America for the long term is pretty low. I hate to say that I don't want to be kind of a negative Nancy, but from what I've seen so far, listen, his supercross skills are not going to, they're not going to just magically appear. Like, I don't think he's ever going to be a top three supercross guy. That's just not going to happen, in my opinion. I do not believe that is reality full stop. Like, you won't see that happen. Second, I don't think he's going to get out of this Cowie deal and into another American factory deal in time to salvage this mission, if that makes sense. Like, I can't imagine that Cowie's going to let him out this year or next year. And then KTM is going to say, yeah, we love everything we've seen from this disaster that's gone on. We'll take you in. I kind of, I don't know that that's going to happen. But you, if you really like, we're like, nope, that's going to happen. Trust me. Okay, how does, how does that happen? Well, Tomac would be there and then he's going to retire eventually. And then KTM would be like, well, Prado could win us a motocross championship. We got to bring him in. Like, I don't know what they're doing at Cali, but he can win. We've seen it before. We know he's comfortable with the ktm. Let's bring him in. That would be the only way. Like, Honda's not doing it. Honda has Jet and Hunter and they're, they're trying to figure out what to do with Shimoda. They're, they're not even in the running for this in My opinion, I don't know that Star would sign up for this. Maybe. So Star does wild things. Like, they take wild swings at this stuff, so maybe. But they're going to have Deegan, so do they really need Prado if they have Deegan there? I would say probably not. You know, like, does anything that Prado is doing right now make you think that they would want to take that on? I don't think so. I don't think that's a good fit. Like, Prado is incredibly outspoken. I don't see that going really well at Star. And maybe I'm wrong. Maybe that's where he lands and I look very foolish, but I don't see that happening. So I don't want to put this out there, but I do think he ends up back in Europe in the next three years. I do. It doesn't bring me any joy to say that, but I think when you just look at all the possibilities, it seems like the most likely outcome either before or after his contract with Cali ends. And that would be a big disappointment. I think it would be a big setback for riders in Europe wanting to make the jump because it would leave a bad taste in people's mouths. You know, guys like Kaido, Wolf and Kunins and whoever else that wants to make the jump over here, like Vanderin's trying to, Coldenhoff's trying to, Prado's not doing them a lot of good right now. Prado is not helping their case or their leverage or negotiating ability with these lackluster performances. So if you're mxgp, you love it because you might get your superstar back. And it's also taking some of the leverage away from your key guys that want to want to move to America. So anyway, that's it for this week. I wanted to talk about these things that I wouldn't normally get to talk about on a race week. I hope you enjoyed it. If you didn't, I apologize. Thanks for hanging in there. Anyway, thank you again to all of the sponsors. Guts racing go to gutsracing.com seat covers, power for Power Sports E bikes. Complete seats for all the OEMs. Works connection. I used a pro on start device from Works Connection at Washougal and was able to Holeshot Steve Mathis 3 out of 3 times. 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