Industry Seating Podcast – Ep 218: Off Season Talk

Host: Jason Thomas
Date: October 26, 2025

Overview

In this off-season episode, Jason Thomas offers an in-depth look behind the scenes of professional Supercross and Motocross as the sport enters its quietest phase. With limited race results and more open-ended topics to cover, the episode meanders through several major off-season storylines: team compositions, high-profile rider transfers, contract dynamics, and the calculated decisions behind career moves. Jason breaks down the logic, risk/rewards, and nuances driving these news-making changes, offering insider analysis and personal perspective aimed at both dedicated and casual moto fans.

Key Topics and Insights

1. The Off-Season: Testing, Rest, and ‘Cash Grab’ Races

• Quiet Periods & Their Importance
  • October-November is the quietest time in racing as top riders take necessary time off to recharge.
    • "It's arguably these next couple of weeks, late October, early November are the quietest periods because the superstars are using this time off..." (05:25)
• Off-Season Racing for Supplemental Income
  • Star riders participate in international races (e.g., Australia, Argentina, Cape Town) for lucrative appearance money, even if these series are at odds with SMX/Monster Supercross.
    • "But I mean, who can blame them? My entire off season back in the day was chock full of cash grab type races." (04:37)
• The Importance of Testing
  • Teams test ahead of Anaheim not to finalize setups but to identify usable parts across all conditions before vendors/teams order and build them.
    • "This testing period is not necessarily, hey, this is going to be our race setup... It's more of are any of these pieces usable?" (11:15)
  • Having a consistent bike year-to-year is a massive help for development (reference to Honda’s 2024 A1 struggles).
    • "You want continuity in your motorcycle because you avoid potential situations like Anaheim one." (17:10)

2. Kawasaki’s 2nd 450 Rider: Marchbanks, McAdoo, and the Business of Contracts

Garrett Marchbanks to Kawasaki 450 (Unofficially)

• Jason confirms Marchbanks is set to take the spot, although it's not yet officially announced.

Why Not Cameron McAdoo?

• Analysis of McAdoo’s Decision

  • McAdoo is one of the highest-paid 250 riders (~$350k plus bonuses), and staying in the 250 class has bigger earning potential thanks to win and championship bonuses, especially with many heavy hitters graduating to 450s.

    • "For McAdoo, the reason he didn't want to take the 450 spot... is betting on the potential upside of himself." (23:18)

  • The 450 deal (late in the contract cycle) would mean less earning certainty, no guarantee of podiums (thus, lower bonuses), and likely only a one-year deal, risking job security for 2027.

    • "I don't know that Kali would lock him in... you don't want to put yourself in a do or die year in your first year in the 450 with no contract security on the backside." (32:33)

• Financial Comparisons

  • 250: McAdoo could make up to $1 million with race/championship bonuses if he has a great season.
  • 450: Potentially less bonus upside and no championship contention prospects.
    • "I would say McAdoo will likely be on an opposite coast of Deegs... the door is open." (25:13)

• Broader Point on Rider Strategy

  • Riders like Vial (and McAdoo) are wise to avoid “do or die” years in 450s without guaranteed security—the same logic prompted Vial to return to Europe for a lucrative, secure deal, rather than a risky 450 debut.

3. Chase Sexton’s Move to Kawasaki: Searching for the Elusive Perfect Fit

• Background and Comparison to Team Swaps of the Past

  • Sexton moves from Honda (2023) → KTM (2024/25) → Kawasaki (2026/27), each time prompted by some level of dissatisfaction.
    • "All three of those were unhappiness where it was the driver. That's the point. It was not about opportunity or... money..." (44:24)
  • Jason contrasts Sexton's moves with those of Chad Reed, emphasizing that Reed was forced into most changes (due to budget, team decisions), versus Sexton proactively seeking a better situation.

• Concerns about the Fit

  • Kawasaki's recent record with their 450s hasn't been stellar; e.g., Anderson, Prado, and Cianciarulo struggled or were injured.
  • Jason questions whether Sexton’s continual search for a perfect setup or team is productive.
    • "He seems to be constantly searching for something. Like he's always looking for what's better... I just think that's a, that's a fool's errand." (55:10)

• Notable Quote:

  • "When you sign up for a bike, sorry, that's what you agreed to. You signed the contract. You tested the bike. That's for you to be like, have enough foresight to say, yeah, this isn't going to work." (58:25)

4. Tomac to KTM and the Challenge of Change

• Major Adjustments for Tomac

  • Transition from aluminum to steel frame (Austrian bike), with unknowns about power, clutch preference, and moving from KYB/Showa to WP suspension.

    • "The only things I worry about, you know, he's been on these kind of aluminum chromoly chassis to more of a steel frame. So I don't know how that's going to go... It's going to be the first time he's ever been on an Austrian bike." (01:02:10)

  • KTMs may lack the out-and-out power Tomac prefers:

    • "I don't think the KTM is as fast as the Yamaha. That's another thing. Tomac wants the fastest bike you can build him for starts..." (01:03:03)

  • Summary:

    • While Tomac can likely adapt, these are significant changes that introduce real uncertainty—Jason doesn’t see a major upgrade over the Yamaha, possibly just a “sideways” move.

5. Deegan’s 450 Test: Risks and Rewards of the Spotlight

• Deegan Plans to Race 450 in Select WSX Rounds

  • Unlike other up-and-comers, because of his massive profile, fan attention, and detractors, the risk for Deegan is much higher if he struggles.
    • "He is going to get lambasted... by people on the Internet. Everybody that wants to take a shot at him, that's been waiting for their moment like they got at Vegas is going to lean into it with everything they have." (01:07:22)

• Decision Factors

  • If he excels internationally (Argentina/Australia WSX), pressure will mount for him to contest 450 at Anaheim.
  • If he struggles, might retreat to the planned 250 East campaign to protect confidence and marketability.

• Social Media and Brand Considerations

  • The Deegans may decide the spectacle and engagement (even if negative) is worth it, as “just making noise” is valuable for their brand.
    • "I don't really care what you say about me as long as you say something about me..." (01:09:43)

• Jason’s Prediction

  • The decision will hinge on WSX results; if Deegan is competitive, it’s hard to imagine them skipping Anaheim.

6. Jorge Prado to Red Bull KTM (Forthcoming Announcement)

• Insider Confirmation

  • Jason reveals that Prado is set to ride for KTM, taking the spot vacated by Tom Vial, with an official press release imminent.

    • "He’s going to be at Red Bull KTM. Just be patient. Wait for the press release. It’s coming, though." (01:14:22)

  • Reflects on the complexity of his release from Kawasaki/Monster, but the deal is done.

  • Promises a full, dedicated episode on Prado and his bike setup in the future.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "It's absolutely necessary for them to have a positive and productive following season is to have a good offseason. Like that's just, that's just how it works." (02:40)
• "Marchbank's news is already broken as far as unofficially... what I like to do is take the news and then analyze it and give my take on what that actually means." (19:35)
• On McAdoo's Decision: "You can see where the potential dollars add up and why, why Macadoo... wouldn't immediately jump at the 450 opportunity. That's it. That, that is in a nutshell, that is why." (28:28)
• On Sexton bouncing teams: "He seems to be constantly searching for something. Like he's always looking for what's better... I just think that's a, that's a fool's errand. I do." (55:10)
• On Deegan’s spotlight risk: "If he goes to Anaheim and he doesn't do well, he is going to get lambasted. Lambasted. Lambasted by people on the Internet." (01:07:22)
• "Change in and of itself is a risk. It is. It can be. It can be upside." (01:05:29)
• On Prado: "Whether Prado does well or not, we'll see. We got a lot of time to talk about Prado and a KTM and I, and I kind of want to devote an entire podcast to Prado and the motorcycle at some point." (01:16:07)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00 – 03:20: Jason’s off-season state of the sport and sponsor thank-yous
• 03:30 – 12:00: Testing in the off-season: why, how, who’s involved, and why stability matters
• 18:10 – 38:36: Kawasaki’s 450 decision, McAdoo’s contract, and Marchbanks' opportunity
• 38:36 – 41:16: The Vial comparison: why job security trumps risk for some riders
• 41:20 – 58:12: Chase Sexton’s team change history, comparison to Chad Reed, team/rider motivations
• 58:12 – 01:05:40: Tomac-to-KTM breakdown, technical and mental hurdles
• 01:05:40 – 01:14:14: Deegan’s 450 test, marketing risks, social media dynamic, and race plans
• 01:14:15 – 01:16:07: Jorge Prado to KTM confirmed, future deep-dive promised

Summary

In this engaging, insider-driven episode, Jason Thomas pulls back the curtain on the business and psychology of professional motocross during its slowest time. Through signature candor, he connects the dots on headline-making contract moves, the rationale behind these decisions, and the career trajectories for stars like McAdoo, Sexton, Tomac, Deegan, and Prado. The discussion is rich with both numbers and narrative, giving context to the major off-season rumor mill, and offering a nuanced appreciation for the high-stakes, sometimes volatile, chess game that is the world of top-tier moto racing.