Industry Seating with Jason Thomas

Episode 221: 2026 450SX Preview
December 28, 2025

Episode Overview

Jason Thomas delivers a comprehensive and cerebral preview of the 2026 Monster Energy Supercross (450SX) season. Using his insider perspective and years of experience, he analyzes the major contenders, discusses key storylines (especially Jet Lawrence’s injury and recovery), and delves into the prospects and unique challenges for top riders. Thomas aims to uncover angles and insights that escape typical preview shows, focusing on how shifting circumstances—particularly Lawrence’s absence—reshape the season’s landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Jet Lawrence Injury: The Domino Effect

• Situation: Jet Lawrence is sidelined after breaking his talus bone, missing the start of Supercross.
  • “The biggest news... Jet went down to injury, broke that talus... it is a problematic bone in your foot-slash-ankle that is going to keep him out... two to three months.” (17:28)
• Recovery Timeline & Dilemmas:
  • Lawrence is expected to recover quickly, but key decisions must be made: does he return early for racing or focus on being 100% for Pro Motocross?
  • Thomas breaks down the typical rehab approach: “You’re just making it where you’re working on fundamentals and getting kind of working through the rust without making big mistakes or putting yourself in harm’s way.” (24:24)
  • Importance of rebuilding “motorcycle muscles” after time off.
• Big Question: When he returns, does he focus on Supercross or shift energy directly to outdoor Motocross & SMX playoffs? (28:50)

2. Championship Contenders in Jet’s Absence

Cooper Webb – The Defending Champ

• “You have to start with Cooper Webb. I'm not saying that Cooper Webb is the favorite... but he has the number one on his bike.” (33:16)
• Jet’s absence is “a game changer” for Webb, fundamentally improving his championship odds.
  • “...the door’s open. That’s what I believe went through the mind of Cooper Webb.” (36:42)

Chase Sexton – The Physical Favorite

• “Sexton is the most talented guy of this group... Physical, he is the guy to beat.” (37:13)
• But: “This whole 2026 Monster Energy Supercross Championship is going to be Chase Sexton versus Chase Sexton.” (40:41)
  • Mental fortitude and stability remain Sexton’s biggest hurdle.
• If confident, he’s near-unbeatable, but “the mental aspect is really what I'm counting on to beat him,” Webb would say. (38:40)

Eli Tomac – The Twilight Challenger

• “If Eli were five years younger... he would be the guy to beat... But Eli Tomac is in the twilight of his career.” (42:36)
• Cites Tomac’s historical inability to “put the nail in the coffin” even when fastest, losing titles he was positioned to win.
  • “Father Time is undefeated... but we haven’t really seen a severe drop-off... we do see an inability to bring his best stuff every time.” (43:24)
• Still a contender; depends on stringing together consistent dominance.

3. Second Tier Title Threats and Key Riders

Ken Roczen

• Exceptional early rounds are typical: “He’s going to start strong... probably going to have the red plate at some point... It’s going to be the same questions though in March, April, and May. Does the performance start to drop off?” (50:16)
• Health and consistency the perennial question marks.

Hunter Lawrence

• On the rise, still improving: “His career arc is still on the upslope... For those people who are talking about a championship, I don’t know that he’s there now... He hasn’t won a race yet.” (53:57)
• Key for 2026: “Get that first win... stay in it, establish yourself.” (55:03)

Aaron Plessinger (AP)

• Uncertainty over offseason illness that left him unable to finish races.
• “If you don’t know what a problem is, you can’t fix it... for AP, it’s the only story going into Anaheim.” (57:44)

Justin Cooper

• Needs to “break out” to reach the salary and recognition of the top echelon.
• Critical improvement area: whoops. “It’s the number one thing holding Justin Cooper back, it’s the number one liability in his racing.” (1:01:51)
• Notable (lighthearted) moment: “When you don’t win a race all season... it’s funny that you’re the rider of the year.” (59:03)

Malcolm Stewart

• Unforgettable 2025 first win; shows flashes of brilliance but “has to be more consistent... can’t have the weekends where he just looks uninspired.” (1:05:26)
• To win more: leverage sprint speed, blitz the whoops, and innovate with lines.

4. Other Notables & Storylines

• Jason Anderson: “I want to see that 2022, 2018 racer... fire from him... what I’ve seen is kind of uninspired riding for the paycheck.” (1:08:28)
• RJ Hampshire: “For RJ, it’s really important to stay within yourself, ride within your means, and let these races unfold much like you did in Pro Motocross.” (1:11:01)
• Justin Barcia & Dylan Ferrandis (on Ducati): Development focused seasons, particularly for Barcia who’s coming in hurt; Ferrandis “over the moon about this chassis... wanna see that on the racetrack.” (1:13:11)
  • Notable: Mathis and others have fun with Ferrandis’s effusive praise for Ducati’s chassis.
• Jorge Prado:
  • Thomas’s advice: “Just stay healthy.”
  • “If he goes into these Supercross races thinking, this is my time, I gotta be in there, I gotta prove... he’s missing the plot.” (1:16:06)
  • Suggests a radical approach (racing only first five SX rounds, then prepping solely for outdoors), calls out that all of Prado’s 2026 reputation will be measured by Pro Motocross.

Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On Cooper Webb’s mindset after Jet’s injury:

  “I know him...I can almost guarantee you with 99% certainty that when he saw news, his first reaction was, man, that’s a bummer... and then the second thought was, the door’s open.” — Jason Thomas (36:42)

• On the stakes for Chase Sexton:

  “This whole 2026 Monster Energy Supercross Championship is going to be Chase Sexton versus Chase Sexton. I can’t put it any more simply than that.” — (40:41)

• Honesty about Eli Tomac’s career arc:

  “Father Time is undefeated... when Eli was his best self, you’d see weird rides, weekends where he’d open the door to the competition.” — (43:12)

• The necessity of patience in injury recovery:

  “It’s really hard to be patient and allow yourself to take the time to slowly work yourself back to 100%. I was never really given that leeway... I needed to go racing to make money.” — (26:51)

• On Justin Cooper and breaking through:

  “If you want to get the big paychecks, you have to win races... the number one skill set or your number one deficiency is always going to attract headlines.” — (1:01:19)

• Joking about Rider of the Year:

  “When you don’t win a race all season, it’s funny that you’re the rider of the year.” — (59:03)

• No-nonsense assessment of Jorge Prado’s goals:

  “What is going to define a successful 2026, in my mind, is not Monster Energy Supercross. It is just not what matters.” — (1:16:48)

Topic Timestamps for Navigation

• Jet Lawrence Injury & Recovery: 17:28 – 29:50
• Cooper Webb Analysis: 33:16 – 37:13
• Chase Sexton Analysis: 37:13 – 41:11
• Eli Tomac Analysis: 42:36 – 49:41
• Ken Roczen: 50:16 – 53:57
• Hunter Lawrence: 53:57 – 57:44
• Aaron Plessinger: 57:44 – 59:03
• Justin Cooper: 59:03 – 1:01:51
• Malcolm Stewart: 1:05:26 – 1:08:28
• Jason Anderson, RJ Hampshire, Barcia, Ferrandis, Prado: 1:08:28 – 1:19:30

Tone & Style

Thomas strikes a tone that is deeply knowledgeable, direct, and a touch self-deprecating, blending expert analysis (“I did it for 16 years. I know this to be true.” (1:12:05)) with candid, sometimes blunt advice: “If you don’t know what a problem is, you can’t fix it.” (57:44). He playfully calls out media narratives and injects humor, especially discussing contracts and salary speculation, or when recounting the “Rider of the Year” gag.

Summary Takeaways

• Jet Lawrence’s injury has fundamentally shifted the championship calculus, opening the door for Webb, Sexton, and Tomac.
• Sexton is positioned as the ultimate physical talent but must overcome his own mental uncertainties.
• Roczen will likely surge early but faces the same stamina and health questions as previous seasons.
• Hunter Lawrence and Justin Cooper are tapped as riders who could step up but need that major breakthrough.
• For would-be contenders (AP, Barcia, Ferrandis, Hampshire, Prado), specific, unique challenges define their 2026 storylines.
• Prado’s effort should emphatically focus on Pro Motocross, with SX held in clear secondary priority.

Thomas’s preview provides a uniquely realistic, sometimes hard-edged, but always insightful forecast of the 2026 Monster Energy Supercross season.