Infinite Loops EP.248: Ben Reinhardt — Speculative Technologies
Date: December 26, 2024
Host: Jim O’Shaughnessy
Guest: Ben Reinhardt (Speculative Technologies)
Overview
In this episode, Jim O’Shaughnessy sits down with Ben Reinhardt, founder of Speculative Technologies, a nonprofit lab designed to unlock and advance technologies that don't fit within the typical startup model. The conversation delves deep into why certain important inventions stall, the challenges of funding and institution-building in research, and the creation of new pathways for ambitious technological development outside of traditional academic or commercial channels. Together, they explore how to shift incentives, reimagine funding, and reframe the culture of innovation to benefit humanity in the long term.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. The Mission of Speculative Technologies
[02:43] Ben (B):
- Purpose: “The goal at the end of the day is to get more awesome technology into the world... abundance and flourishing and going to space and all that good stuff.”
- Model: Inspired in part by DARPA, Speculative Technologies identifies ambitious program leads and equips them to bring underdeveloped tech to fruition.
- “Getting technology out in the world” can mean starting companies, licensing, open-sourcing—going beyond the startup lens.
Phases of Projects
- Roadmapping: Rigorous upfront planning
- De-risking: Quick experiments to test fatal flaws
- Build Phase: Coordinating entities or building in-house teams
- Deployment: Proactively pushing technology into real-world adoption
2. Incentives, Roadmapping, and the Pitfalls in Startups
[05:33] Ben:
- Startups often overlook structured roadmapping and risk assessment due to short-term pressures from investors.
- Quote: "The incentives are not... to do that. Because... there are stages at which, if you’re being honest, you would say, 'Actually this is not a good idea. We should not be pursuing this.' But you take a bunch of money and your investors are not going to say, 'Oh, okay, shut it down.'" [05:46]
[08:21] Ben:
- Draws attention to biotech as a model: clear milestones, structured tranching, outcome certainty (via FDA), which allows risktaking to flourish.
- Most venture capital works on compressed timescales due to fundraising cycles, not just fund durations.
[12:11] Jim (A):
- Points out “hyperbolic discounting”—the dangerous tendency to focus only on short timeframes, leading even bad strategies to look temporarily effective.
3. Getting Tech “Out Into the Wild”
[16:02] Ben:
- Success scenarios are context dependent and must be planned for—startups, licenses, open datasets, nonprofit spinouts, or creative agreements (e.g., lining up a company to integrate a product if it works).
- Planning for adoption must start early, not at the end.
- Criticizes academia’s isolation: "It usually happens in a vacuum and they're like, oh, it works great, but... there's some very specific requirement... that means... it doesn't get out into the world successfully." [18:34]
4. Market Failure, The Role of Institutions & Cross-Sector Collaboration
[20:26] Jim:
- Discusses the OpenAI transition from nonprofit to for-profit and worries about perverse incentives and narrowing of focus.
[22:25] Ben:
- Advocates for honesty about what institutions (government, academia, startups) do well and for creating new hybrid institutions to bridge gaps.
- Laments institutional consolidation—"everything being either... academia, big companies, startups, or government... there are many other potential things...” [24:58]
5. Politics, Culture, and Government Research
[27:48] Ben:
- Tension: government wants to be “responsible” with taxpayer money, but transformative research often looks irresponsible ex ante: “Really good research is not auditable... Number one prerogative of government bureaucracies is make sure everything is justified.”
- Multipurpose constraints: grants are also for workforce training, tightening how money can be used and stifling innovation.
[31:20] Jim:
- Argues that politics is downstream of culture; urges for a societal mindset oriented toward building a better future.
6. Research Leadership and Training the Next Generation
[32:51] Ben:
- Introduces the “Research Leaders Playbook”: a practical guide for running “coordinated research programs” (ambitious, not-for-profit, not-academic).
- Outlines skills needed: program design, managing misaligned incentives, technical management, and "selling the vision" (to funders, partners, and team members).
Memorable quote:
"I wish I learned much earlier in my life is that you need all of this... You need the science planning, you need the sales, you need being able to talk to people, but then go really deep on a technical subject. And sort of our current ways of training people don't sort of cover all of those." [35:38]
7. Philanthropy, Status Games, and Reframing Funding
[36:31] Ben:
- Many in tech harbor a belief: if something is valuable, it should become a profitable company; if it’s not, it’s a “skill issue.”
- Observes how few tech philanthropists truly understand or support basic research; calls for a “pay it forward” ethic, recognizing that many fortunes were built on foundations laid by earlier, unprofitable research.
Status as Incentive:
- Discussed transforming philanthropy into a prestige/status play, akin to “Forbes lists” or awards in entertainment, to motivate high-impact giving.
[43:50] Ben:
“But yeah, people fund these hundred million dollar buildings at universities, then put their name on it. It’s like... why not just fund a warehouse, spend the rest of that money on actual work and then just put their name on the actual work?”
8. The Strategic Focus on Materials and Manufacturing
[47:35] Ben:
- Asserts that “materials and manufacturing underpin civilization.”
- Advances there (e.g., stainless steel) have been pivotal for progress in medicine, agriculture, and almost every sector—yet are underappreciated and often fall outside both startup and academic scopes.
[49:57] Jim:
- Proposes a cultural campaign—books, shows—on “the thing behind the thing” to celebrate foundational discoveries.
9. Framing, Culture Change, and Institutional Reform
[52:03, 54:15]
- Invokes David Deutsch: “We always think we know everything there is to know.”
- Many foundational innovations (the Internet, quantum physics) weren’t even dreamt of 100 years ago.
[72:48] Ben:
- “Academia is actually very well suited for... discovering secrets of the universe,” but not for invention or team engineering.
- Suggests unbundling the functions of academia—pre-commercial research, undergraduate education, and basic science—into specialized new institutions.
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On incentives and roadmapping:
“There are stages at which, if you’re being honest, you would say, ‘Actually this is not a good idea. We should not be pursuing this.’ But you take a bunch of money... your investors are not going to say, ‘Oh, okay, shut it down.’” — Ben, [05:46] -
On the limits of government funding:
“Really good research is not auditable... Number one prerogative of government bureaucracies is make sure everything is justified.” — Ben, [28:07] -
On cross-institutional gaps:
“We’ve gone from a world where you have this thriving ecosystem... to everything being either... academia, big companies, startups, or government... there are many other potential things and there have been many other potential things.” — Ben, [24:58] -
On reframing philanthropy:
“People fund these hundred million dollar buildings at universities, then put their name on it. Why not just fund a warehouse, spend the rest of that money on actual work and then just put their name on the actual work?” — Ben, [43:50] -
On culture and technological progress:
“We didn’t leave the Stone Age because we ran out of stones.” — Jim, [51:18]
“We always think we know everything there is to know.” — Jim invoking Deutsch, [54:15]
Timestamps for Important Segments
- Speculative Technologies’ Model and Approach – [02:43]
- Problems with Startup Incentives – [05:33]
- Importance of Timescale, Hyperbolic Discounting – [12:11]
- Tech Transfer: How Technology Actually Gets Out – [16:02]
- Institutional Gaps and New Models Beyond Startups or Academia – [22:25]
- Rigidities in Government Funding & Politics – [27:48]
- Training and Playbook for Ambitious Research Leaders – [32:51]
- Philanthropy, Status, and Motivating High-Impact Donors – [36:31], [43:50]
- Why Focus on Materials and Manufacturing – [47:35]
- Framing, Book/Media Ideas to Inspire Culture – [49:57], [51:18]
- Challenges and Institutional Reform, Role of Academia – [72:48]
Final Question — Emperor for a Day
[77:40] Ben:
- Hacks the prompt: “...incepting everybody to wake up and read everything that I have written on the Internet and take all of it very seriously.”
- “Frontiers are absolutely critical for humanity... We really do need new technology and new technology paradigms to create new frontiers that benefit both the people on the frontiers and the people who stay at home.”
Where to Find Ben
- Twitter: @benreinhardt
- Web: Spec Tech – spectech.us
This episode offers a lively, visionary roadmap for anyone interested in the “thing behind the thing” of innovation. Ben Reinhardt and Jim O’Shaughnessy challenge listeners to rethink how we fund, coordinate, and celebrate the research that enables future abundance, urging a cultural and institutional shift toward longer time horizons, cross-sector collaboration, and a more robust infrastructure for technological moonshots.