Transcript
A (0:02)
Hi, I'm Jim o' Shaughnessy and welcome to Infinite Loops. Sometimes we get caught up in what feel like infinite loops when trying to figure things out. Markets go up and down, research is presented and then refuted, and we find ourselves right back where we started. The goal of this podcast is to learn how we can reset our thinking on issues that hopefully leaves us with a better understanding as to why we think the way we think and how we might be able to change that. To avoid going in infinite loops of thought, we hope to offer our listeners a fresh perspective on a variety of issues and look at them through a multifaceted lens, including history, philosophy, art, science, linguistics, and yes, also through quantitative analysis. And through these discussions, help you not only become a better investor, but also become a more nuanced thinker. With each episode, we hope to bring you along with us as we learn together. Thanks for joining us. Now, please enjoy this episode of Infinite Loops.
B (1:14)
Well, hello everyone, it's Jim o' Shaughnessy with yet another Infinite Loops. My guest today, Sajit Pai, is one of the most respected people in the Indian tech industry. He's a GP at Bloom VC and he's also a very prolific writer. I've read much of what he's written. He's a wonderful writer. And what I love about it is the transition, Sajit, from two decades in media entertainment and then staking your claim, I think it was, in 2018 by joining BloomBC. First off, welcome.
C (1:51)
Thank you. Thank you, Jim. It's a pleasure and it's an honor.
B (1:54)
And if you wouldn't mind, one of the things that I have been learning a lot about that I'm sure that many of our listeners and viewers don't know too much about, is India is sort of seen by many American VCs as this great untapped country with 1.5 billion people. But we see it a bit as a monolith and at least you've disabused me of those notions. And it would be great if you could help our listeners and viewers understand it's not that at all. You've said it's three, maybe four different countries and that you really need to understand. So if you wouldn't mind walking us through kind of a 101 on the Indian opportunity and many of the misconceptions Westerners have about it not be happy.
C (2:46)
To a lot of folks outside see India as this large, like you rightly said, 1.4, 1.5 billion population country with a rising middle class. And because a lot of I would say folks in the west interact with very smart Indians, especially if you're in Silicon Valley. You know, Indians are a substantial portion and even in Indian US corporates and as well as British corporates are full of very successful Indians. So typically the notion is that there are a lot of people like them in India, right? But when you actually unpack the data, you find that that kind of population, highly educated, affluent, well earning, is actually a very small portion of the Indian population. So I look at India as what, four countries, but really three of them are the ones. I think it's best understood as it's sort of a pyramid. India 1, India 2 and India 3. India 1 is like the smallest market and the fourth country is really a subset of India 1, which is an extremely kind of rarefied set, which I'll not talk about. So let's go back to the three countries. India 1, India 2 and India 3. India 1 is about 30 million households, about 120 million people, but 9 to 10% of the overall Indian population and it accounts for about $15,000 per capita income. And they are the ones, for example, buying Apple phones, having Starbucks coffee, offices of franchise in India or Dunkin Donuts, buying Samsonite suitcases and what have you. A lot of people think this is a majority of the Indian population, but it's actually just about 9, 10%. But the fact is because there are 120 million people, it's still significant. That's bigger than, you know, Germany for instance, right? That's bigger than the uk. So the fact that, that's an interesting paradox of India, that India one is just about 9% of India, but it's still larger than many countries. India too is a second nation and that is really aspiring India. There are about 70 million households, 300 million people. They can use the Internet, but they can't consume. They're users, not consumers. And they account for about $3,000 per capita income of like a Philippines, but Philippines population is about 100 million. It's like an Indonesia with the per capita income of a Philippines. India one is like a Mexico. Like you think of it as a Mexico sized country. And India throws really beyond pale. They're like, they're completely locked out of the markets, economic markets. They're not making too much money, thousand dollars per capita income, really struggling to buy, no disposable income and so on. Really these are the three nations. And I think what Western companies or any company outside India needs to keep in mind is there are not too many products that appeal to the entire Indian populace? Yes. There are companies like Unilever, Procter and Gamble, more Unilever, and there are a few companies which have products that cater to the entire, you know, 1.4 billion people. But really, most products really appeal to 30 million households, 120 million people. And if it can appeal to India too, then it's really a big, big, big, big product. So that is sort of the three nations and sort of the teasing a part of this. I want to take a pause here and let you come back into the conversation.
