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Inside Texas Football
Texas Ranks No 2 in FPI, But Faces a Nightmare Schedule
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Texas is going to be great, but is that enough?
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- [00:02]
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- [02:10]
Host (Inside Texas)
All right, guys, welcome to the reheat here inside Texas, joined by Joe Cook, who's out there on a little summer vacation. Got a jacket on in July, Joe, how's the vacation going for you, Bubba?
- [02:21]
Joe Cook
Hey, that's all it needs to be said right there. Jacking on in July, and I got a nice little view out this window that's got me pretty washed out, but it's. It's great. Still get to talk about some Football.
- [02:32]
Host (Inside Texas)
I love it, man. Hope you and the family have a real good time. And again, thanks for being here, guys. Make sure you throw a like on the video. And don't forget, take advantage of that Inside Texas promo going on right now. Still just $1 for you new members to join and then half off on your first year after that. And again, you got all the fun content. Between the football recruiting, football news, baseball recruiting, basketball recruiting, never a better time to come over to Inside Texas. But today Joe and I are here to talk a little bit about the FBI and where Texas sits in the FPI rankings, where the rest of the sec, what Texas schedule is going to be affected by the difficulty, you know, and how the FP5FPI comes into place there, you know, but Joe, like, Texas sit at number two, you know, do you think that's, you know, fairly accurate considering the difficulty of the schedule that Texas is gonna have?
- [03:17]
Joe Cook
Yeah, absolutely. I think one of the good things about fpi, at least in the preseason, is that it tries to rank the team maybe without looking at the schedule part. And. Okay, you know, I think you can justifiably look at Texas as being able to go anywhere between 8 and 4 to 12,0. But how good is the team? And FPI is one of, you know, the hundreds of different analytics that tries to take recruiting rankings and production and, you know, just a lot of different things that ESPN values into making a rating. And I think the Perfect rating is 30. That way you get like 10 on special teams, 10 on defense and 10 on offense. And Texas has 26.9. They're full point ahead of Notre Dame, who's at 25.9. They're almost two or. Excuse me. Yeah, they're almost two points behind Ohio State at number one at 28.7. But all the same, that's still really, really high marks from a. You know, I think fpi, even though it's got a lot of power just because it's associated with espn, it's one that a lot of people use and don't have very many problems with, but I think makes sense. You know, you got a lot of returning production and experience. You have, you know, several top five, top three recruiting classes, including a number one recruiting class, talented transfers and just a lot of good things going into the year. But again, that that schedule is going to be challenging. That's why some of the other numbers that FBI posted is. Aren't as encouraging for Texas as the number two by their name.
- [04:51]
Host (Inside Texas)
Hey, I like to hear, you know, Joe tell us Is there some validity to that number two ranking in the FBI? Because again, yes, the schedule is very difficult. You got a lot of teams on this schedule. You know, you're going to see up there pretty high on this FBI index and we'll get into that as we go on. Um, but yeah, I mean, this is a topic because Joe and Nash have both done a great job covering or had articles covering the topic over on Inside Texas.com so make sure you check those out. Nash, I think, came out last week and Joe kind of touched on Nash's article as well with his own thoughts. And you know, it's, I mean, a really good piece, but it's just, it's crazy to see, you know, how many teams in this conference. It's, it's like you couldn't even almost come up with a borderline top 10 that people would want to watch if you excluded all of the SEC teams. Joe, how, you know, I mean, do you genuinely think there's that many teams that are in the SEC that belong in the FBI? Top 25? Is a conference actually that difficult, Joe? And if that's true, how are we not factoring in strength of schedule as we get into this? I know we're starting this whole dance early, man, but I gotta ask, bro.
- [05:52]
Joe Cook
Well, I think when it comes to, again, I mentioned recruiting rankings and in production and when you're in the sec, it's against teams that recruit really, really well. Mississippi State is the last team in FPI and the SEC and they're number 49. Arkansas is number 47. And I think Arkansas could win like two games this year. So I'm trying to figure out how you balance those two ideas. I think Mississippi State is going to be, you know, a little bit better than they were last year. Probably going to be in contention for more SEC games, but still like the, the fact that all these teams are extremely talented, they still got to lose games and somebody's going to lose an extra game this year or half the teams are going to lose an extra game this year just because of the nine game schedule. But the sec, because of the talent, because of the fervor, because of just recruiting, it's always going to get a leg up in these, in these rankings and the, the season will help, you know, bear even things out. But all the same, like, we always see SEC teams in the top end of FPI as the year finishes and just within the top 25 alone. I think if I've got the count right, there's 12 of the top 25 is SEC. And I don't think Auburn or South Carolina or maybe even Florida are going to be like the type of team contending for double digit wins this year. But they're all still extremely talented. Their record is going to probably. And I think, I wonder how much record matters in this. It shouldn't if it's a good analytic system. But they're going to lose games because they're going to play bad against teams that are better. And it'll all kind of even out. The teams that win will move up. But I mean just Texas, schedule alone, you got the number one team in Ohio State. You keep going, you finally avoid Georgia. But oh, there's LSU at number nine. There's Texas A&M at number 11. Oh, you at 12, Ole Miss at 14, Tennessee at 16, Florida at 18, Missouri at 21. And then they, they get a little bit of a reprieve with facing the last two teams. But in their, their G5, G6 opponents, like, at least they're in the 60s. Like it's not like. But you're not playing like a team that may win three games this year. Like you're playing two. Pretty well thought of group of six teams in UTSA and Texas State, man. Yeah, it all makes it tough. And that's why when you start looking at some of the projections, FPI even thinks that Texas is, I don't know how this works, but 9.8 in wins and 2.7 losses is their projected, you know, record the win out percentage, which right. Right now means, you know, win 12 games, win a 13th game and then win three on the way to the national. Basically their percentage of going 160 is 6.8%. I think that that includes postseason stuff. But even if it's just a regular season, if it's just 12 0, it's like their probability according to FPI of going 120 is 6.8%. So and it's one of the other things that's really, really striking is for so many of these past couple years with Texas, I think, and I would probably need to look back on this like the probability to win six games just to make a bowl, it usually is in like it's usually above 99. And I'm looking right now, Miami, Indiana, Oregon, Notre Dame and Ohio State, they're all above 99, just from within the top 10. Texas Tech is too. Texas is 98. And I think just that small idea that of something we feel very, very confident is not going to happen. Well, there's still a 2% chance, according to FBI, it could happen just because of how difficult the schedule is. Like, that's. I think that small number is very indicative of the schedule. The more Fun1 is 13.2% chance to win the national championship. That's the third best behind Ohio State and Notre Dame. One of three. Third best behind, excuse me, second best only behind Ohio State. Notre Dame and the Buckeyes are the only other teams above 10%. That just speaks, I think also to modern college football to where 10 and two, okay, you can still make a run to the national championship game and be within a possession or 10 points. Just ask Miami. You don't even have to win your conference. So FPI is, I think, giving Texas fans a lot of empirical data that kind of backs up their emotions from this season with, oh yeah, you got Arch Manning and Cam Coleman and Will Muschamps back. Well, all that talent and all the production that you're bringing to a team that was kind of going through a roster. I don't want to say reset, but the first year of a roster cycle after all those teams from the 2023 or players from the 2023 and 24 seasons were drafted, now it seems like it's starting to hit a peak again. And analytics think very, very highly of the Longhorns as a result.
- [11:00]
Host (Inside Texas)
Yeah, I mean, clearly, man, but they also have respect for that schedule. Like you said, a 6.8 win or went out percentage. But like the number that I find it's super curious. I mean, nine, a 2.7 projected win loss, you know, record you could go down to. Like you talked about, the win out person. Notre Dame's at 32.7, Texas Tech at 25.2. There is an era, sorry, there isn't, you know, an avenue for, you know, where things could go bad this year, you know, Joe, because the schedule is so difficult. And yeah, Texas is probably going to be a really dang good football team. The numbers like Texas, we like Texas. Nationally, people like Texas. But hey, man, that schedule's tough. And even, I mean even your, your Texas states and your UTSAs, these are not your standard Texas State or UTSA programs. You know what I mean? These are probably as well run as they've ever been run. And so it's fun across the board. You throw in the fact that you had an edit and an added sec game, you have one less buy and yeah, a little bit scary. A little bit scary. It's gonna be tough. But I mean, again, like you said, Texas is loaded of talent. They've provided depth and quality spots. But it is pretty funny man, to look at those one out percentage numbers for Notre Dame and for Texas Tech. And then, you know, come in the season there's going to be another what SEC Big Ten team with three losses, Joe. And all of a sudden we're bringing in all these numbers, we're bringing in the FPI or bringing in a strength of schedule. Just different playing fields for some of these schools out here. Bubba.
- [12:23]
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- [13:25]
Joe Cook
Yeah and just to tie loose in the win out percentage that Texas has at 6.8 it's win out the rest of regular season games and a conference championship game. So basically to start 13 and oh and you know I think when there's so many people who criticize fans of SEC programs and the SEC itself, we're like oh why are you're just using numbers and using this or you when you should just use record and the CFP people use record as we've come to learn that's that's works for the NFL because you got a salary cap and a salary floor and 32 teams right? You've got 138 FBS teams, you've got 60 something power conference teams. Wake four. You know I can make a comment about the Bucks place in the NFC south and then look at you know maybe the make sure I get this right, the chief's place in the AFC west. But there's really not going to be too much difference between the NFC south and the AFC west when you think about the league. Whereas Texas schedule compared to Virginia's schedule which we can get to in A minute. It's a world apart. And so that 9 and 3 versus that, you know, 11 and 1 even. And I'm even somebody who's very, very skeptical about using analytics and data to even cover so much as one loss. And I usually draw the line at two. But I think you have to look at just the way the SEC and the current schedule those teams have to face and the current schedule Tech current schedule Texas has to face as just making it so those have to enter the conversation. Because Texas FPI, the median opponent FPI this year is 17. So you have UTSA at 88, Texas State at 84, Ohio State's 1, LSU's 9. You do process of elimination there. The median is 17. And that is just crazy to me. I may have actually messed that one up because I don't see a 17 unless. Oh yeah, it'd be between Tennessee and Florida, who's 16 and 18. So the median opponent on Texas schedule is a top 20 team and then the average is number 31. And that includes two pretty good group of six teams. It doesn't include a FCS team like I looked at with some of these schedules. And you know, that is what it is. Texas just doesn't play FCS games. But that type of data speaks to what Texas, at least here in the preseason is looking at. That's a lot different. Whereas if you go to Texas Tech, their average opponent FPI is 58. You look at their and, and I, when I went through this, if they played an FCS team, I just plugged in there for the median at 138 just to be last. I didn't plug them into the average. Their median is 45 and a half because they play three teams ranked 44, 45 and 46 in Arizona State, Colorado and Cincinnati. You go to Notre Dame, their average opponent ranking in FPI is 58. They do play Miami, but the median is 67. You stay in the ACC. You look at Virginia, they just came off literally their best season ever, didn't win a conference. They play an FCS team, it's against in state, Norfolk State, coached by Michael Vick. The average FPI for them is 52 and the mean is 52 and a half. You look at Indiana, they are. That's a team that understands that, okay, maybe you play some not challenging at all games so your transfers can coalesce before you start facing some really difficult teams. They've got a pretty tough schedule this year. The average FPI for them is 47, which I think is pretty respectable. The median is 61 and a half. They do get Ohio State, Michigan and USC, but then they get Northwestern, Rutgers in Purdue, so it kind of balances out. And then I even went to a couple more examples. Usc, who, yes, they also like Texas, do not play FCS teams, but they also have Lincoln Riley as their head coach and they have ducked out of the, the, the series with Notre Dame. I'm a little bit more willing to show some leniency to Lincoln Riley this year because their average FPI that they face is 49. Number four, Oregon. Number 26, Washington. Number 17, Penn State, number one, Ohio State, number six, Indiana. Yeah, that's going to be rough. And so if you added number three, Notre Dame, it would have been even tougher and you would have to remove. I don't know, I, I guess BYU stood in for them. And then if you want to go to the sec, I'll skip Florida, but I'll go with Texas A M. They play an FCS game. They play the Citadel, who runs the option, but they run it at the FCS level, they should be able to handle it unless that. Unless Mike Elko forgot everything he knows or at least half of what he knows. So you have their 11 FC FBS games. Their average opponent ranking is number 30 and their median is 22. So that is also a really, really tough schedule. They're taking on Arizona State, I think, in College Station. Like, good Big 12 team, respectable schedule. Like, I, I don't. The A and M. A and M's problem has never been like, scheduling intentionally bad teams. Like, sometimes the schedule is what it is, but they don't duck away from challenges either.
- [18:51]
Host (Inside Texas)
Right.
- [18:52]
Joe Cook
That's a really good schedule. It's, you know, it's got its challenges, Alabama, ou, and then they have OU in Texas toward the end of the year, I think, to end the year. And they're still not even close to where Texas is. And we'll see what happens after week two. You know, when all these teams go through each other, we get the labor, we get week zero, we get Labor Day, we get Texas, Ohio State, we get all that stuff. But like, you really aren't finding, unless you're Arkansas, who's not playing really the same game of football right now that Texas is. The Longhorns have pretty much the most challenging schedule of all the title contenders here in the country.
- [19:30]
Host (Inside Texas)
Absolutely, man. I mean, this is a team that if, if they go 10 and 2 in my book, Joe, they played, Played really damn good football, you know, throughout the course of the Season they handled really good coaching staff, really good teams. And I mean adding a conference game, taking away a bye week, having Ohio State in the non con, having in my opinion, a rising Oklahoma team. I do think Oklahoma will be better. I think my coco obviously has got a M figured out a little bit like, oh, those all add ele challenges to the schedule. A first trip to Death Valley, new, new coach there. I wish it was earlier in the season, Joe, rather than later in the year. There's plenty of challenges throughout that schedule. But like you said, man, we'll get through Labor Day, we'll get in week two, week three, week four, and a quarter of these teams in the top 25, probably more will be like, yeah, well, we thought we knew, we know nothing. And all of a sudden a couple of these schools who maybe, you know, like last year, for example, a schedule on paper going into the season appeared to be very difficult, right, Joe? As we were getting into November, we were like, okay, I, you know, that was a bit of a paper tiger as far as the schedule goes. So I mean we do have to account for that. But yeah. Any final words on. On FPI and where, you know, I mean, Texas's thoughts? It's where Texas is there. I mean, again, we think that's a pretty accurate spot for Texas. And I do like going behind the numbers and thanks for doing that, Joe. Where you get to see the expected one out percentage. And you get this, the FBI knows the schedule is difficult. People, they, they know and they respect our schedule.
- [20:48]
Joe Cook
So I, I checked last year's and it includes all the data from, you know, Indiana going 16 dudes all the postseason just to see where the SEC finished last year. And I'm surprised by this. Florida. Oh, you lost to Florida. Oh, you lost a team that finished 4 and 8. They were number 37 in FPI. Guess who they were right behind that Virginia team that had the best year in Cavalier School history.
- [21:14]
Host (Inside Texas)
Right?
- [21:15]
Joe Cook
So like, yeah, okay, they're four and eight. Yeah, you can't depend on analytics. You have to go by the results on the field. But sometimes these analytics are fed by results on the field and they can tell a different tale compared that, that wins and losses don't. And you have to find a right balance for it. All the same though, this schedule that Texas is going to face is really going to be one of the toughest, maybe the toughest it has ever faced.
- [21:43]
Host (Inside Texas)
That's well said, man. And again, just one last point. You know, you talked about people loving to kind of get on the sec. And, you know, it feels like the SEC kind of protects their own as far as, like, from the schedule perspective and the difficulty of the conference. I'll admit that I've kind of crossed that bridge as Texas has gotten into the sec because again, it is. It is this weekend and week out, you know, but is. Is there any point, Joe, in which you feel that as Texas goes throughout the season that, like, you know, is there a chance that, hey, maybe the schedule is really not. Is there a chance that, like, maybe LSU implodes early, they lose to Ole Miss, they drop a game, I think. Do they have Florida after that, or does Ole Miss have Florida? So weird two weeks, no. LSU has Ole Miss on the road. Then Elko and A M the next week dominate here. Maybe he, you know, doesn't stay healthy. He's banged up. And the improvements at quarterback, you know, they don't get to come to fruition for the young guy. I don't know. I'm just saying, man, there is a chance. Ohio State's gonna be tough. There's no, there's no doubt. But there's still other teams in the SEC like Tennessee, brand new defensive coordinator. Texas gets them early in the year. Yes, it's Jim Knowles and he's fantastic. But I mean, there's. There's a chance that maybe, Joe, this schedule's a little bit easier than, you know, that we're thinking it might be.
- [22:52]
Joe Cook
Yeah. And I mean, but I think it all being challenging bodes pretty well. Like, I. I think I wrote something a couple weeks ago where I said, Missouri's a trap game. And I was listening. I think I was listening to Josh Page, like, watch out for Arkansas. I'm like, Arkansas is on 2 and 10. Watch. Arkansas is on 1 in 11. Watch again this year. Like that real trap game is Missouri. I think they're schedule merchants and they have been as long as Elias Drinkwitz has been their head coach. They're about to get the. The nine game schedule is going to come for them in a. In a rude fashion. Like, yeah, I think we'll see some teams move up and down, especially some of the ones breaking in brand new quarterbacks, whether they are transfers or whether they are returners. So Mississippi State, Florida, Missouri counts in there. I think those types of teams have. I mean, even lsu, I think those types of teams have a little bit more volatility than maybe the teams like Oklahoma. Excuse me, and Texas A and M and who Come on. One more rule of threes. Ole Miss all returning quarterbacks. So we'll see. I. I don't think it's gonna go from like, wow, this is the toughest schedule ever to oh, man, that was a bunch of cupcakes. Like, it may go from, like, it may go from top two to top 15 at worst. And that's still. Now, that may change the conversation when it comes to the 9 and 3 part. But if you. If you go 10 and 2 against the top 15 schedule, if you go 10 and 2 against the Top 2 schedule, as long as there aren't just a overabundance of 10 and two teams, which also is a problem in this expanded conference era.
- [24:33]
Host (Inside Texas)
Yep.
- [24:33]
Joe Cook
Let's cross that bridge when we get there. They'll be fine.
- [24:36]
Host (Inside Texas)
It's just gonna be one year where there's like 15, 10, and two teams top. You know, 15 is top 16 teams in the country. But by then we'll probably have a 40, 18 playoff and it won't be that big of an issue. Joe.
- [24:47]
Kalshi Advertiser
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- [24:48]
Host (Inside Texas)
Well, Joe, thanks for spending time with me here today, brother. Always fun to work with you, my man. But you guys, don't forget $1 right now and get you a subscription with Inside Texas for you new guys. And then you'll get half off on a yearly sub after that first week runs out. Come spend some time with us over on Inside Texas. Joe. Go have a beautiful rest of your day, my man. And again, guys, throw a like on the video. And thanks for watching Inside Texas. We'll see you all next time.
- [25:14]
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- [25:41]
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- [26:07]
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- [26:37]
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