Intelligence Squared Host (2:11)

Hello everyone. Good evening. Welcome to this Intelligence Squared event. Delighted to introduce our guest tonight, Christiane Amanpour. Christiane has been a witness and a guide for so many of us. Certainly to me, the number of evenings I spent staring up at the TV in the office as major events have unfolded. As CNN's chief international anchor, she's headed the network's award winning flagship global affairs program, which is called simply Amanpur. You know you're Important when you've just got a single moniker. She's one of the world's most respected journalists. She's reported from the front lines of the 1991. 1991 Gulf War, the American led invasion of Iraq, from the Baghdad courtroom at the trial of Saddam Hussein. And so many countries, the Balkans, Syria, Sudan, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Venezuela, you name it, she's been there as events have unfolded. So lots to talk about. Before we get stuck in, though, I need you to do something. We want to get a sense from you, the audience, of what you think really matters. So if you scan that QR code now, get your phones out. Everybody need you to take part. What do you think is the biggest issue facing the world in 2026? There are a number of choices. Four, in fact. One is the rise of autocracy and the decline of democracy. Two is artificial intelligence and the impact of new technologies. Number three is climate change. And the fourth is other. So point your cameras at the QR code and vote. And I'm hoping that we're all going to be able to take a look at the result in just a few moments. There's quite a lot of agreement going on, I think. Well, I think we're there. Has everyone voted?

Christiane Amanpour (4:05)

Yes.

Intelligence Squared Host (4:05)

Anyone still trying to point their phone? Point and shoot. I can see one or two phones. I'm going to give you a, a

Christiane Amanpour (4:11)

moment or two longer.

Intelligence Squared Host (4:14)

Oh, a little bit of a shift. A little bit of a shift. Okay. Well, number one, it seems, is way out in front. Are you surprised, Christian?

Christiane Amanpour (4:22)

I'm not surprised. I'm actually quite glad that it's a big concern and I think it's going to form quite a lot of our conversation. I really am pleased that everybody is worried about that. I'd like to see a little bit more on climate change, maybe not so much on other.

Intelligence Squared Host (4:39)

Well, with that in mind, then, 61% of you are worried about the rise of autocracy and the decline of democracy. That will definitely inform our conversation. We're going to talk a little bit about America, externally, internally, also about the Middle east and I hope a little bit about other parts of the world that perhaps don't get as much coverage. And also about AI journalism. Christian has so much experience to share there, so lots to cover. Let's begin though, with America. How would you describe Christiane, the country that is emerging under Donald Trump?

Christiane Amanpour (5:15)

Well, as Gillian Tet of the FT put it, or maybe it was the FT headline, essentially Normalizing Deviance. And I think that is something that we should really take under consideration and really understand what we're covering and what we're witnessing. I remember when I was covering the Balkan wars and many other humanitarian catastrophes, which sometimes the world like to just think were humanitarian catastrophes, but you needed to understand that they were not. They were either ethnic cleansing or genocide or criminal or whatever it was. It wasn't just that we were landed in some terrible situation, it was, oh goodness, that's just what happens. No, there's a deliberateness about this and there is a victim, there's an aggressor, there's a right and there's a wrong, etc. You can say the same thing about climate, you can say the same thing about many things. So I think we have to understand what we're living through, what we're witnessing, and not try to sein wash anything or normal wash anything and recognize that us, particularly as journalists, have a duty to call things out for what they are. And I'm not talking about being opinionated or all the other things we get criticized for. For me, objectivity is telling the truth. I don't particularly believe in impartiality or neutrality from Bosnia. When I was confronted with absolutely having to understand what the reality was and actually getting somewhat criticized for it, I came up with a mantra many years later, in fact, well, anyway, and it was be truthful, not neutral. Because if you're neutral and you are trying to make some kind of false moral or factual equivalence between two very different sides, then in the worst circumstances you become an accomplice. So what I'm saying is that when you have, let's say you've asked me about the United States of America, I don't think many people would argue with the fact that for pretty much the first time, certainly in the last hundred or so years, the United States administration, the President of the United States, has embraced policies and actions that actually do very much threaten the very foundation of the United states. It's the 250th birthday of independence Day this year and you know you've got attacks on basic constitutional principles, the freedom of the press, the rule of law, equality of everybody, and not only that, busting the international US led world order. And so all of that is real.

Intelligence Squared Host (7:58)

You were at the Munich security conference last weekend. Always makes me laugh. It's one of those quite nerdy events which a few years ago no one, except for sort of foreign policy geeks would really have discussed. It's now become a big part of our discourse after the JD Vance's attack last year. And it was an attack. It was seen as an attack in Europe. We were all waiting for what Marco Rubio had to say. So, bearing in mind how you've described this country of deviance, how do you.

Christiane Amanpour (8:26)

Normalizing.

Intelligence Squared Host (8:27)

Normalizing deviance. Sorry. Normalizing deviance.

Christiane Amanpour (8:31)

Be careful. Yes, I need to be careful and precise.

Intelligence Squared Host (8:34)

CE rather than TS how would you describe Marco Rubio's words in that context?

Christiane Amanpour (8:42)

So, you know, Munich Security Conference has become like a rock band. You know, it's so popular and everybody wants to go there. Maybe it's not just the geeks, it's everybody.

Intelligence Squared Host (8:51)

Damos with Vance.

Christiane Amanpour (8:52)

And I was there last year for the first iteration of the Trump administration on the international stage. And it was literally barely two weeks since the inauguration. And J.D. vance essentially came over there and. And I mean, thwack, whack. I mean, just threw the whole kitchen sink. At who? Not his adversaries, but at his allies. So he was basically almost cozying up to Russia, telling European allies, NATO allies and others, Asians and people who come from all over the world actually to the Security conference, who do believe that they're allies of the United States and are all part of this post 1945 US led world order. And he essentially told them, your problem is not Russia, your problem comes from within. And he essentially told Europe then that it was because they didn't tend enough to their extreme far right. And he claimed, you know, sort of didn't allow the far right to have so called freedom of expression, freedom of speech. I mean, in the room there was heckling. I have never seen that in any major diplomatic event. The actual defense minister of Germany, remember in Germany, we're in Munich, when he's talking about the extreme far right, stood up and said, this is unacceptable and disgraceful. And I remember, because we couldn't get in, it was so crowded that when people came out, world leaders, foreign affairs, intelligence, defense, some form, some current, they were shocked. I mean, they were shocked. And the intervening year has literally been building upon that template that J.D. vance, on behalf of the President of the United States, delivered to the world. And again, in short, it was alienating allies and blaming allies for whatever problems existed and actually embracing adversaries in the middle of a hot war in Europe, in the middle of Russia's war against Ukraine, which threatens us all. So cut to this year where I was also, and Rubio came. So Rubio, you know, by being Secretary of State, it means he's the country's highest, most prominent diplomat. So people were hoping that he would Be diplomatic. And so he was. So he gave them basically a Valentine's hug because it was on Saturday. And he told them that, you know, our history binds us together. We are, you know, really connected. But there was a lot of talk doubling down on what the administration actually believes, which is Europe is responsible for its own major problems. He talked about managing your own decline. He talked about Europe being a continent of over immigration. He talked about, you know, free trade as if it was an evil thing. He talked about all of that kind of stuff, but said it nicer than JD did. And then, by the way, he went, and by. I mean, Europe was so relieved that they got up and gave him a standing ovation. They did. And then. And then. But guess where he went next? He went to Slovakia and Hungary. All right. Those are two very, let's call them, illiberal democracies who. They're still helping and they're still.

Intelligence Squared Host (12:17)

There's an irony there, isn't there? On the one hand, you've got an American president who wants to see Europe spend more on defence, and yet, actually, one of the people who doesn't want to spend more on defence, and certainly not on defending Ukraine, is Viktor Orban.

Christiane Amanpour (12:30)

That's true. I mean, yes, exactly. And probably fit so in Slovakia as well.

Intelligence Squared Host (12:34)

But from all of this, how should Europe perceive America? Friend or ally? Friend or enemy. Rather, ally or enemy.

Christiane Amanpour (12:41)

So a very important and experienced person, he calls himself now a former Republican, the name is Robert Kagan, and he is a very respected and credible foreign policy analyst. So he was on my show just before I went to Munich, and he said, you know, let's face it, Europe. Well, first he said, the United States under this president, is certainly hostile to Europe and potentially predatory. So Europe is sitting between a definitely predatory Russia and a potentially predatory United States. So when I put this to Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the EU commission, she nearly fell off her seat saying, I would never compare Russia to the United States. I said, no, I actually didn't say that. I said, there's a predatory Russia and you're being dumped by a predatory, potentially predatory and hostile US in the, you know, in the hot water. And he actually has just laid claim to owning Greenland. So do you have a problem with my question? And so they were very, very keen on trying to, obviously, always try to hold the transatlantic alliance close, try to make sure it survives, but knowing that they absolutely have to do a huge amount more, which is going to mean that this government, governments all over Europe and elsewhere, are going to have to pay a lot more of their GDP into the. Which means that it comes from somewhere else. And I think that's absolutely clear. I think the trust has all but disappeared between Europe and the United States, even between parts of Asia, Asian allies in the United States or India. You know, the minute you use tariffs, not for trade, but as punitive measures, which is essentially what many leaders say is what Trump is doing, the tariffs don't make trade sense. They're punitive. They're to collect money for the US treasury, et cetera. And they have done. It means that it's very difficult to trust that ally. So there's a lack of trust. But I think something that almost never gets said. I remember covering all these wars in Europe and elsewhere, even at a time when, let's say, France or Germany, kind of the big powers, they were talking. You remember many times they talked about a European army. Okay, so who told them no? The United States of America. Because United States of America wanted to lead and it has the most military prowess. It wanted to lead. So all these times when Europe, for whatever reason, decided to try to get a little bit of ahead of its skis and on its own two feet, it was the United States of America that said no. Now, overnight, the United States of America is saying, absolutely now, and it should have been done yesterday.

Intelligence Squared Host (15:34)

So America's traditional allies are suspicious, perhaps feel like jilted lovers to some extent. That post Second World War order appears to have disappeared overnight. What about within America itself? How is Trump faring? When we think about ICE in Minneapolis, that was a moment, wasn't it? That was a moment when America kind of went, not sure if this is what we want.

Christiane Amanpour (15:56)

Look, you have to accept that in November 2024, the majority of Americans voted against the Trump. It wasn't a landslide like he claimed. He did win the House, the Senate, but the percentages weren't huge. Something like 51, 49, something like that. So it's not a massive landslide, but it's a genuine victory, especially when you have all the organs of power, the Congress, the judiciary, everything else. I remember talking to the outgoing Secretary of Homeland Security, Alejandro Mayorkas, Joe Biden's Secretary of Homeland Security, under which immigration and all the rest of it land. And he said to me, I think that basically Stephen Miller's draconian immigration deportation policy is going to be the tipping point. Because he said that I don't think ordinary Americans, you know, people who go to the shop together, people who go to school together, people who have X, Y and Z working in their homes or whatever, but who go to church with all these people who are now suddenly being rounded up, their kids are too scared to go to school, they can no longer go to these shops and, you know, department stores, because that's also become a target for ice. He said, I think when neighbors start watching neighbors being, or people who they know being rounded up and sent back, especially if they're not criminals and have no criminal record, it's going to have an effect. And it took a while. It took a year. It took a year. But Stephen Miller has a quota. It's something like, I mean, don't hold me to it, but it's something like a million a year or whatever that they want to deport until they've got rid of however many million they want to get rid of. And because it's difficult to do that and because not everybody who's an immigrant, even if they're not a citizen, not everybody is a criminal. And they said they would just get rid of the criminals, they having to go overboard. And so this is what's going on. And it's very dark and it's very, very draconian. And when essentially two American citizens, white American citizens, a woman and a man were killed in Minneapolis, that tipped a lot of this. So in the meantime, Trump has pulled ICE back from Minnesota, from Minneapolis, and, you know, they're trying to figure out, you know, what to do next. And it is hitting his popularity, but it's not critical. It's not, you know, totally.

Intelligence Squared Host (18:43)

But is it something we might see in the midterms? And do the Democrats have a strategy?

Christiane Amanpour (18:47)

So that's also everybody asks me and asks everybody else and asks every Democrat they come across. So what's going to happen? Who's got a strategy? What can happen? So I don't know. I don't cover the United States. I mean, I cover foreign policy. But you can see already that the off year elections that were held this past November went very much against Trump and very much for the Democrats. There was local elections that were governor elections. There were, you know, there was a referendum in California. All went heavily, heavily towards the Democrats and actually even more so than they dared hope. So that's one piece of data. And then I was in Munich, the famous security conference, and I was speaking to Democratic senators and Republican senators there. And the Republican, notably Lindsey Graham, who's a very, very proud Trump, very maga, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, he basically said on a panel that I was hosting that they expected not to do well, they expected to take a hit in November. And the Democrats also believe that they will win at least the House. The problem or an issue if you're a Democrat, is as one senator told me, it used to be the Democrats were divided between progressives and moderates. And this senator told me now the division is between people who really want to go and really mount a strong defense against Trump policies that go against basically the American way, or those who say, no, no, let's just hold our fire, let's wait, let's, you know, we've got a couple of years, let's wait and all, all the rest of it. So that's where the difference is apparently now. And it's unclear who the actual big names are. Obviously there's Governor Gavin Newsom, but people say, oh, California. Then there's Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky. There is the governor of Minnesota, there's the governor, I think West Virginia, I think Westmore is from Maryland, maybe, I'm not sure. Anyway, so there is a few governors whose names have come up as potential future leaders. And who knows, I mean, is Kamala Harris going to try again? It's unclear. Yeah, unclear.

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Intelligence Squared Host (22:18)

Well, fascinating to think about what may happen and actually how those actual elections run as well because if you that all elections are false and are rigged against you, this is something to worry about.

Christiane Amanpour (22:29)

Well, this is a serious thing to watch out for because this is out of the authoritarian playbook. When you start questioning the sanctity or the truth and the reality of elections, you start, even if you don't reverse them, you start engendering a huge amount of distrust in the people. If the president is saying that this can't be trusted and that can't be trusted, well, people start, you know, getting nervous about the system. And right now there is a very, very, you know, organized Republican attempt to, well, you know, there's gerrymandering. First it was the Republicans, then the Democrats started doing it. There is, you know, the FBI for the first time raided an election center in it's called Fulton county in the state of Georgia and took things that referred to the 2020 election. This is all, according to analysts and historians, all designed to engender doubt in the process. So when I put this to Lindsey Graham, again, a very, very pro Trumper, he went, I am offended that you asked me this question. I said, there are going to be elections in America in the mid times. I am offended. I went, well, you know, it's your president who actually, you know, did what I just said. I'm glad you're offended. Does that mean it's going to be okay? And he said, of course it's going to be. So anyway, that's from the mouth of Senator Lindsey Graham, friend and ally of President Trump.

Intelligence Squared Host (24:01)

Watch this space. Watch this space. It can see that you're all concerned. Clearly, given the 60% who are concerned about.

Christiane Amanpour (24:06)

It's very, very important this, because never has this amount of, of onslaught onto the democratic process happened, not just in America, but by the elected leader. So it's very, very, very intense. And the Supreme Court is so far, so far it is essentially on his side. Lots of federal courts have gone, you know, challenged his policies.

Intelligence Squared Host (24:33)

So bearing that in mind, before the election, I remember speaking to Republicans who kept saying, guardrails, guardrails, there are guardrails. You know, Trump will be contained within guardrails. And these were not necessarily MAGA Republicans, but Republicans who wanted their guy to win, let's put it that way. What happened to those guardrails you could

Christiane Amanpour (24:54)

see, and this is again, something that we should all be very cognizant of if in the strongest democracy in the world, and by that I mean the most powerful, the most economically, you know, powerful, etc. If things can be so, if the guardrails can fall so easily and so rapidly without much of a pushback from the institutions that should push back, then we should all be asking ourselves questions about what is the future of democracy there, here, there, or anywhere. You know, but here we've seen guardrails, a lot of them collapse at the first push. A lot of it is about money. You know, America is a capitalist society, and there's a lot of threat by the administration on people's economic bottom line, punitive, suing. All the press are being sued. This person, that person is being sued. You know, threats against law firms. This, you know, all of those institutions that have heretofore upheld the rule of law and the democratic process are being manipulated, well, bullied into being very careful. And that's a problem. Now, don't forget, he has at least half the country who supports him. So the American people elected him, and we'll see what happens next time they're able to, you know, deliver a verdict.

Intelligence Squared Host (26:32)

Let's turn to a story that's playing out today, which is Iran. There are talks going on between the United States and Iran, and yet we've got this buildup of US Naval forces in the region, in the Middle East. How much pressure do you think the Iranian government is under, both from its own people and indeed the Trump administration? Administration?

Christiane Amanpour (26:56)

I would say a huge amount of pressure and an unprecedented amount of pressure, first from its own people who have shown themselves willing over and over again, but most recently late December, early January, to come out and essentially face the lethal response of the regime, to tell the world what they want. And they want freedom, they want change. They want to be able to have, you know, to be able to. To buy themselves food three times a day, to have meat, basically, to be able to survive, to be able to travel, to be able to have dreams, to be able to have business, and essentially to be able to be free. And that was met with a violent, violent crackdown with very sophisticated weaponry, with the kind of killings that certainly I wasn't there, so I can't tell you what I saw. And no Western journalists were there when it was going on. But all the stories that are coming out tell us that this is the worst that it's ever been. And the people who we talk to, the people who we can talk to on the phones tell us what's going on. And it's the worst that it's ever happened against the people. So the people have not stopped. They're not in the street right now, but they're in their homes, they're in their communities, they're in their organizations still. Maybe on the roof, out the window, whatever, saying, down with the dictatorship. The regime is fighting back right now by arresting tens of thousands of people trying to use all sorts of sophisticated electronic surveillance to try to identify whoever was involved in these protests. They've also, and this is crucial because, I mean, it's an Islamic country, they call themselves an Islamic republic. And they have basically told the people that they mustn't have visible or public 40 day anniversary mourning commemorations. So in the Muslim religion, you know that after 40 days, after a death, after they've mourned for 40 days, it's sort of another gathering and then they sort of kind of move on. That's the closure and this, that. But the 40 days is very important. And these regime people have been going around to houses, putting it on state television, doing what they do to tell people not to do that. But I just read from before I came out here instead, the regime is trying to own it. They're now on state television telling people that they are going to have a nationwide 40 day celebration, or not the correct word commemoration, because they say that, I mean, they say a lot of their own people were killed. So there's a very, very intense crackdown on what's going on. And if you remember, and this is, I remember because I was there, it was often the 40 day commemorations that led to the mass movement against the Shah in 1970. And they know that. So they are stopping it right now, which means they're going against the religious beliefs of their people and they claim to be an Islamic republic. So that's from inside, from outside. You have in the wake of June where there was A so called 12 day war, I don't call it a 12 day war. It was just, you know, brief and not a war. It was a, you know, missiles, bombs and missiles and this and that between Israel and Iran and the United States entered as well. That was pretty much specifically designed to attack their nuclear, their missile and some of their military and police leadership, their security leadership. Now for sure, because we heard the Israeli government, even the US Government had it resulted in regime change, that would have been for them a very good byproduct. But it wasn't designed to be that. So now the question is, with all this military might, you know, six months later heading to the Gulf, some of it's there already, some of it's on its way. Planes, you know, what's the actual reason for it? What's the Trump administration or the Israeli government's goal? So what we know is that the Trump administration called Iranians out onto the street and said help is on the way. Lindsey Graham said to me that The President of the United States has to fulfill that pledge, otherwise it would be terrible for the United States. So this is a senior Republican senator. Others, obviously people, you know, Iranians abroad, Iranians there, they also want to see regime change. How does it happen? So what we were told about a week ago was that the Israeli government had said to President Trump, don't do it. And everyone was like, well, why? You know, that's the Israeli government usually wants, you know, the US and has historically been urging the US to bomb Iran and to bomb this regime. And then we heard some of the allies, you know, the Gulf allies were saying, don't do it and this and that. So I was asking people, Saudis, Israelis, Europeans and others at Munich, what gives? They said to me, well, we weren't prepared then because if the US Israel or whatever starts bombing again, Iran will retaliate. And we weren't prepared defensively. Now we're prepared. So all of this stuff that's going there, these aircraft carriers, the battle groups and all the rest of it are not just offensive, they are defensive as well. Because first of all, there are something like eight US Military bases in the Middle east and there's Israel and whoever else might be in the field of vision.

Intelligence Squared Host (33:01)

But Christian, you and I watched two Gulf Wars. We watched Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, you were there. I watched Egypt, the Arab Spring. I mean, these regime changes, you can take out the top, but you don't necessarily change what lies beneath.

Christiane Amanpour (33:19)

You don't necessarily. And that's why this will be, you know, a very, I can only say, interesting event because for 47 years the west has had a hate, hate relationship with Iran and many, many countries in the world. And yet their policies have, in my opinion, from having been there and reported for many, many years until I got banned after the so called Green Revolution, which I was covering there in 2009. It's hurt the people. They've hurt the people and the oligarchs at the top stay in power. And that happens in a lot of these places. But you remember after 9, 11, when the US and Britain went in, they did get rid of the Taliban and they did get rid of Al Qaeda and there was an attempt to rebuild in a democratic and freer way. I mean, I'm sure there were many things that went wrong and then Trump decided to pull out. But things were going in a better direction. They were going in a better direction. I was there. I covered it in the Arab Spring. You're right, it wasn't any outside intervention. But regime change happened from the ground. But the analysis of that is that what it brought in were, I mean, basically Islamist parties in Egypt and elsewhere. And the powers that be, once they regrouped, didn't want that and so they pushed back and now they're in charge again in Egypt. Anyway, Syria is different. It went through a 12 year civil war with hundreds of thousands of people killed and now it's attempting to come out of that. But the most difficult thing to build in many of these places that either from within they do regime change or from outside is to build unity and to have a unified nation and people going forward. Because if you're just going to change one with another and still be polarized and still be fragmented and there are outside actors who would like to see a weak and fragmented Iran and they're already doing it in Syria. You know, they don't want to see a strong, you know, powerful democratic, potentially hostile because I'm talking about Israel now it continues to act in Syria and there is reason to believe that they might to do so in Iran as well, because this current Israeli government prefers to ensure its security by attacking those around who are potentially dangerous to them. So these are all huge issues that are very difficult to figure out how they end.

Mia Sorrenti (36:15)

Thanks for listening to Intelligence. Intelligence Squared. This episode was produced by Connor Boyle and it was edited by Mark Roberts. For ad free episodes and full length recordings, you can become a member@intelligencesquared.com membership and to join us at future live events, just head over to intelligencesquared.com attend to see our full live events program. You've been listening to Intelligence Squared. Thanks for joining us.

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