Podcast Summary

Podcast: Intelligence Squared
Episode: Is the Russia–Ukraine War a Failure of Strategy? With Lawrence Freedman
Date: March 15, 2026
Host: Adam McCauley
Guest: Sir Lawrence Freedman (Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London)
Producer (Introduction/Outro): Mia Sorrenti

Episode Overview

This episode explores the layers of "strategy" as a discipline and lived experience through the distinguished lens of Sir Lawrence Freedman. Diving into his latest book—a collection of essays on the nature and meaning of strategy—Freedman and host Adam McCauley analyze the relationship between strategy, policy, and tactics, with a special focus on the Russia–Ukraine War, lessons from modern conflict, and the challenges of rationality in leadership. The conversation also grapples with nuclear deterrence, shifting geopolitical realities, and the evolving demands for strategic thinking today.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Formative Influences and the Meaning of Strategy

[02:24–09:49]

• Origin of Interest in Strategy:

  • Freedman became interested in strategy during the 1960s’ student radical movements, noting the gap between idealistic aspirations and the practicalities of achieving real change.
  • He was frustrated by strategic plans that lacked clear implementation pathways.

• Evolving Understanding of Strategy:

  • Early views saw strategy as a linear relationship between ends and means; over time, Freedman recognized strategy as messier and more incremental:

    "The strategy never ends because when you’ve reached one stage, there’s another stage to follow and the stage after that. So it is in that sense more like a soap opera than a three act play." — Lawrence Freedman [07:28]

  • Stresses importance of implementation and the often-overlooked centrality of tactics.

    "If you get the tactics wrong, however great your strategy, you’re going to flounder... That’s how you move forward. And if you don’t get your tactics right, then you’re in trouble." — Lawrence Freedman [08:34]

2. Policy, Bureaucracy & the Strategy–Tactics Divide

[09:49–15:19]

• Strategy vs. Policy:

  • The interplay isn’t just about facing adversaries; internal alignment within bureaucracies is equally critical.

    "Strategy’s always got an inner sense that you’ve got to look inwards at how you get people on side, anticipating problems... as well as your outward look." — Lawrence Freedman [11:12]

• Institutional Obstacles:

  • Policies often default to what is politically possible rather than ideal.
  • Using the Iraq War: Blair’s ability to push policy without widespread support led to later failures in occupation and rebuilding phases.

• Autocratic Leadership Hazards:

  • Putin is used as an example—a leader whose conviction in his own judgment blocks dissenting views and challenges effective strategy.

    "He comes utterly convinced of the rightness of the cause and that his own judgment is correct. And all those voices that might have said, are you sure this is a good idea... just weren’t put to him." — Lawrence Freedman [13:52]

3. The Russia–Ukraine War: Strategic Lessons

[15:19–23:28]

• Strategic Miscalculations:

  • Freedman admits misjudging Russia’s risk tolerance prior to the 2022 invasion.
  • Warns against assuming that “stupid” decisions will not occur simply because they seem irrational from the outside.

• Learning from Ongoing Conflict:

  • Importance of caution and humility—events unfold unpredictably.
  • Military history offers frameworks and questions rather than direct analogies.

    "The dangers of extrapolation... just because one thing’s happened in one way doesn’t mean the next thing will happen the same way." — Lawrence Freedman [17:34]

• Innovation Outpacing Outcomes:

  • The rapid evolution of tactics (e.g., drone warfare, smaller unit infiltration) hasn’t necessarily changed battlefield outcomes, but has deeply transformed the character of war.

• Resource Imbalances:

  • Clausewitz's notion of “culmination” is referenced as potentially outdated in asymmetric scenarios—Russia's vast resources modify traditional strategic concepts.

4. Leadership, Rationality, and Strategic Failure

[23:28–31:27]

• Rationality in Decision-Making:

  • Rationality does not mean “correctness” but rather internal consistency given one’s (possibly flawed) premises:

    "If your starting assumptions are completely wrong, you can be perfectly rational, but end up with a pretty poor answer." — Lawrence Freedman [25:33]

• Trump vs. Putin—Two Models:

  • Putin acts on a consistent (if revisionist) worldview, but his lack of curiosity and insular advice system lead to errors.
  • Trump’s approach is less predictable and less informed, valuing loyalty over expertise and reacting erratically to new information.

5. American Strategic Volatility

[29:20–35:53]

• Managing Unpredictable Leadership:
  • Allies found conventional techniques (flattery, selective agreement) insufficient for managing Trump’s administration.
  • The administration’s lack of experienced staff furthers uncertainty and danger in global affairs.

    "It’s an extraordinarily inept operation as well. And it’s scary... because you never know where it’s going to lead.” — Lawrence Freedman [34:48]

6. Nuclear Strategy & Deterrence in Today’s World

[35:53–44:42]

• The Enduring Paradox of Nuclear Deterrence:

  • Despite increased risks, the fundamental logic from the 1950s/60s still shapes our strategic thinking.
  • The Ukraine conflict validated classic deterrence theory:
    • Russia hasn’t attacked NATO due to fear of retaliation.
    • The West avoids direct involvement in Ukraine to avoid nuclear escalation.

    "In that sense, the theory has worked and deterrence has worked as you would expect.” — Lawrence Freedman [39:18]

• Nuclear “Taboo”:

  • The longer nuclear weapons go unused, the harder it is (psychologically, politically) to break that norm.

• Limits of Deterrence:

  • Deterrence is less effective at sub-threshold, “gray zone” threats (cyber, sabotage, proxy actions).
  • Strategic thinking must evolve beyond passivity, considering both deterrence and active resilience to novel threats.

    "It hasn’t quite reached the threshold of war, but can be violent and certainly can be disruptive. And the danger of a sort of deterrence mindset is you’re not thinking about that in sort of a rather dynamic sense..." — Lawrence Freedman [45:20]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Nature of Strategy:
  “It is in that sense more like a soap opera than a three act play.” — Lawrence Freedman [07:28]

• On Tactics:
  “If you don’t know how to work the box itself, then being outside of it’s not going to be much help.” — Lawrence Freedman [09:07]

• On Irrationality and Putin:
  “He comes utterly convinced of the rightness of the cause...and all those voices that might have said, are you sure this is a good idea?...just weren’t put to him.” — Lawrence Freedman [13:52]

• On Learning from History:
  “It’s quite useful to have a background in military history...it just gives you questions to ask. These are the sort of things that can go wrong.” — Lawrence Freedman [18:44]

• On Nuclear Deterrence Today:
  “We’ve gone for so long... that I think it’s a real thing. It would be genuinely hard to break it, which doesn’t mean to say again it won’t be, but it’s just going to be that much harder." — Lawrence Freedman [42:02]

• On Deterrence’s Limits:
  “We need to think a little harder about this level of activity below war...And the danger of a sort of deterrence mindset is you’re not thinking about that in a rather dynamic sense.” — Lawrence Freedman [45:07]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:24–09:49] Freedman’s personal journey in strategy and the evolving meaning of strategy/tactics.
• [09:49–15:19] Strategy vs. policy; bureaucracy; autocratic decision-making.
• [15:19–23:28] Russia–Ukraine War: strategic lessons, military innovation, Clausewitz, and the unpredictability of conflict.
• [23:28–31:27] Rationality, irrationality, and leadership from Putin to Trump.
• [31:27–35:53] Managing American strategic unpredictability; the risks and hazards of thin leadership teams.
• [35:53–44:42] Nuclear deterrence, escalation, strategic theory from the Cold War to today, the persistence and evolution of the nuclear taboo.
• [44:42–47:35] The limits of classic deterrence and the challenge of novel, sub-threshold threats.

Final Thoughts

This episode provides a sweeping, nuanced tour through the lived and conceptual dimensions of strategy, informed by both scholarship and practice. Lawrence Freedman’s perspective bridges historical insight, contemporary conflict analysis, and the messy realities of implementing strategy in bureaucratic, democratic, and autocratic systems. The discussion is essential listening for anyone seeking to understand not just the Russia-Ukraine war, but the very nature and challenges of strategy in the modern world.