Podcast Summary: Intelligence Squared
Episode: The Age of the Strongman: Understanding Trump, with Anne Applebaum (Part Two)
Date: October 27, 2025
Host: Gideon Rachman
Guest: Anne Applebaum (Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and political commentator)
Location: Royal Geographical Society, London
Overview
This episode is the concluding part of a live discussion with Anne Applebaum, exploring the era of "strongman" politics—specifically, Donald Trump’s America. The conversation traces Trump’s legacy on American law, institutions, and alliances, his personal motivations and relationships with international autocrats, and the deeper dynamics within his movement and administration. Audience questions provoke further exploration of the future of democracy in the United States, the resilience of American institutions, and what may finally trigger significant public backlash against Trumpian politics.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Rule of Law in Trump’s America
- (01:19) Rachman sets the stage by contrasting America’s image as a “country of laws” with recent illegal acts by the Trump administration, noting public shock at institutions failing to check abuse.
- (01:41 - 02:33)
- Applebaum: Acknowledges it's "not nothing"—some legal pushback does work (e.g., lawsuits have protected entities like Radio Free Europe).
- The administration uses a destabilizing method: “break the law first, then wait for everyone to catch up,” which severely undermines trust in justice and the rule of law.
- Quote: “That will have big repercussions down the road.” (02:31)
- Supreme Court’s Role
- (02:43 - 04:04) Discussion turns to the Supreme Court as Trump’s "ace in the hole" after years of Republican court-packing.
- Applebaum: Suggests conservative judges’ commitment to “originalism” may have limits if constitutional violations become egregious, but the test is ongoing.
2. Trump, Putin, and Autocracy Inc.
- (04:16 - 07:23)
- Rachman references Applebaum’s “Autocracy Inc.” and curiosity about Trump’s relationship with Putin.
- Applebaum: Emphasizes two explanations:
- Admiration: “Trump admires him and wants to be like him.” (05:08) Trump has expressed similar admiration for Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un—strongmen unconstrained by courts or checks.
- Financial Ties: Trump’s long record of business in Russia, anonymous property deals, and pro-Russian rhetoric dating to the 1980s.
- Quote: “He instinctively dislikes the rule of law. He dislikes checks and balances. He wants people to just do what he says.” (05:36)
- No need for a “secret videotape”: The public record suffices to explain Trump’s affinity for Putin and his style (07:05).
3. Limits and Frictions in the Trump-Putin Relationship
- (07:23 - 09:46)
- Rachman asks why, despite all this, Putin hasn’t “scored open goal” with Trump.
- Applebaum: Trump aims to end the war in Ukraine, but “Putin doesn’t want to end the war.” Trump has made efforts to placate Putin, minimizing U.S. support for Ukraine, but Putin's goals—to destroy Ukraine’s independence and undermine Europe—remain unwavering.
- Trump’s administration is willing to give ground, but Putin’s aims are far more maximalist and inflexible.
4. Learning from International Experience
- (09:46 - 12:15)
- American diplomatic cycles: Each new administration “has to learn Russia policy from scratch.” (10:20)
- Discussion of whether adversarial relationships with leaders like Putin and Xi are becoming unavoidable lessons for American leaders.
- Anecdote involving Alexander Dugin at a conference in China: Dugin asserts there is no “conspiracy” against the U.S.—it is open, shared interests.
- Applebaum: Underscores that autocrats are not plotting in secret—“it’s not a conspiracy... They have common interests... they imitate [each other].” (11:24)
5. The Fraying of Alliances and the “Free World”
- (12:15 - 15:09)
- Rachman asks about Trump’s effect on America’s alliances and reputation as “leader of the free world.”
- Applebaum: Trump has done “a lot of damage.” Trust is eroding, and many in Europe are distressingly uncertain about U.S. commitment.
- “...just the degree of distrust now is high and will be very hard to overcome in the future.” (13:34)
- Suggests NATO and other allies are likely developing “Plan B” contingency plans behind the scenes.
6. The Enduring Impact of Trumpism and Its Constituency
- (15:09 - 16:00)
- Even if Trump leaves, the anti-alliance, isolationist constituency he galvanized will remain a “factor in politics for a long time.”
- “[Trump] brought them from the fringes of politics into the center, and now they're in the White House. They have big platforms. They're building that brand.” (15:23 - 15:52)
- Trump personally has few fixed ideas but strong instincts (e.g., "alliances are a waste of money, tariffs are good"), and cares most about being seen as a “winner.” (16:12)
7. Power Struggles and “Project 2025” within Trump’s Orbit
- (17:12 - 20:38)
- Beneath Trump's personal brand, multiple factions vie to define Trumpism (e.g., the Bannon vs. Musk divide over immigration).
- Major policy battles: Immigration (big business wants educated immigrants; hardliners want restrictive policies); Tariffs; U.S. world role (Rubio faction for alliances, Vance circle for "Fortress America").
- The leaked Signal chat about bombing the Houthis (Yemen) revealed internal debates—some push to withdraw U.S. global commitments, leaving Europeans to handle security issues.
8. Audience Q&A Highlights
Who is Really Driving the Agenda? (Project 2025)
- (21:36)
- Audience member asks about who’s architecting policy (Vought, Miller, Thiel, etc.).
- Applebaum: Trump isn’t interested in governing or long-term change—the architects of "Project 2025" are the ones seeking to fundamentally alter the U.S. political system (e.g., Vought on government reformation, Miller militarizing ICE and pushing anti-immigration reforms).
- It might lean towards a form of “competitive authoritarianism” (e.g., Turkey), or a more explicitly Christian or white-majoritarian system.
White Nationalism and Christian Nationalism
- (24:32 - 25:18)
- Motivations in the movement include making the U.S. “more white” and “more Christian.”
- Examples: Moves to give refugee status to white South Africans, and proposals for Europeans who reject migration in their countries to get U.S. visas.
- The administration comes close to asserting power regardless of democratic norms, e.g., posting AI images of “Trump wearing a crown... dropping excrement on the protestors.” (26:21)
The Future: Internal MAGA Divisions and Possible Dynasties
- (26:52 - 28:08)
- On potential infighting within MAGA movement: Applebaum thinks it's likely, with Rubio, Vance, and Trump’s own children all nursing ambitions.
- “Assuming that Trump doesn't dream up some reason to run himself... there will be probably quite a bitter contest in three years.” (27:08)
- Trump’s children, especially Don Jr., clearly have political ambitions.
Can American Democracy Survive?
- (28:18 - 30:40)
- Question: Will U.S. democracy survive the next 39 months, and what could trigger public resistance or reversal?
- Applebaum: The fragmented media environment means many Americans remain unaware of corruption or authoritarian practices. The biggest driver of discontent will likely be the economy or healthcare—rising premiums and hardship may be what finally prompts substantial public pushback.
- Quote: “The best bet would be when people feel economic crisis or hardship... mostly I think... it’s the economy in general and maybe more specifically health care.” (29:30)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On breaking norms:
- “The method of break the law first and then wait for everybody to catch up to you, you know, is very undermining of the rule of law and of people’s sense of fairness and justice.” (01:54)
- On Trump & autocrats:
- "He instinctively dislikes the rule of law. He dislikes checks and balances. He wants people to just do what he says." (05:36)
- On foreign autocracy:
- “It’s not a conspiracy. It’s not secret. There’s no secret room like in a James Bond movie... They have common interests... and they imitate it.” (11:23)
- On White House AI propaganda:
- “One of the administration’s responses... was to create AI pictures of Trump wearing a crown... and dropping excrement on the protesters.” (26:22)
- On future of U.S. democracy:
- “Because of the way that people now get the news... A lot of what we’re talking about tonight, many Americans either don’t know or have never thought about.” (28:54)
- “The best bet would be when people feel economic crisis or hardship... that will drive home the message to a lot of people that something very different.” (29:30)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 01:19: The challenge to U.S. legal norms by the Trump administration
- 04:16: Trump’s international relationships and “Autocracy Inc.”
- 07:23: The limits of Trump's relationship with Putin
- 12:15: The erosion of U.S. alliances and global leadership
- 17:12: The internal battles to define Trumpism and the significance of Project 2025
- 21:36: Audience question on who truly drives Trump era policy and their endgame
- 24:32: Discussion of white/Christian nationalism and use of immigration policy for demographics
- 26:52: Will MAGA infight and self-destruct? Dynasty ambitions in Trump family
- 28:18: Can American democracy survive the next 39 months?
Conclusion
The episode provides a grounded yet sobering portrait of power politics and institutional decay under Trump, featuring Applebaum’s sharp insights on the complex, and often contradictory, forces shaping American and global politics. With Trump positioned as figurehead more than strategist, the true direction of American governance is shown to be contested among hardline ideologues and opportunists, all while traditional alliances and democratic norms are visibly strained. Ultimately, Applebaum suggests that only tangible economic harm is likely to break the spell for many Americans, with institutional and media fragmentation insulating much of the public from the realities of democratic backsliding.