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- [00:00]
Sponsor/Advertiser Voice
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- [01:53]
Mia Sorrenti
Ensuring every light is working, the H.
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Jeremy Hunt
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- [02:15]
Mia Sorrenti
Welcome to Intelligence Squared, where great binds meet. I'm producer Mia Sorrenti. Today's episode is part two of our recent live event with Jeremy Hunt, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Foreign Secretary and Health Secretary. Hunt joined us at Smith Square hall in Westminster for the Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook produced in partnership with Guinness Global Investors. For those who don't know, Guinness Global Investors is an independent British fund manager that helps both individuals and institutions harness the trust drivers of future growth to achieve their investment goals. If you missed the first part of this discussion, we recommend jumping back an episode to get up to speed. But now let's rejoin the conversation live from Smith Square hall in Westminster.
- [03:03]
Moderator/Interviewer
You mentioned welfare reform and a regret that you didn't tackle it. Maybe you didn't have time. Maybe there wasn't the political energy. How do you judge so far the attempts of this government to reform the welfare system?
- [03:19]
Jeremy Hunt
Well, obviously they haven't been successful, but I think this is very mission critical for the government. And I genuinely speaking as someone who's obviously not a Labour supporter, but I genuinely want them to succeed because I'm worried that they don't realize that the alternative is going to be continually having to come back and raise taxes and that will kill off growth. And that's already gone wrong for one year and heaven forbid, if we had that for another four years. The way to do it, though, is not to make this an argument about saving money, although we should be clear we do need to save that money. We simply cannot afford to carry on on the basis that we are. But it's actually about transforming opportunities for the individuals involved. So if we got the Working age welfare bill. Bit of Chancellor speak here, because I'm going to give you some numbers. But if we got the working Age welfare bill down to the level it was before the pandemic, by the end of the fiscal period, we'd be saving 47 billion pounds a year. That's not going back very far, that's just going back to 2019. So Rachel Reeves wouldn't have to put up a single penny of tax if you did that. That's easier said than done. It's a very difficult decision. But I happen to know if you. The NHS is world class, very renowned for its talking therapies, which is the treatments you give to people with anxiety and depression at the moderate stage. And, you know, it's one of the areas actually, where, you know, people from Sweden come and look at NHS talking therapies. It's done really, really well. That costs a billion a year. So you could literally double the number of people getting talking therapies for their anxiety and depression. And it only takes six weeks to train up the therapists that conduct it and you would be spending a fraction of the saving, the 47 billion. So if you ask me, the way that you would sell this to Labour MPs and to the public is to say we're going to massively increase. We're going to make sure the people who have back problems get treated really quickly. The people who have mental health problems get treated much more quickly than they do, but they're not going on welfare because we've got to change the social contract. And by the way, there's something else that's completely ridiculous, which I'm very Ashamed to say I didn't know when I was Chancellor because if I had, I would have done something about it immediately. But there was a court ruling in 2021 or 2022 that said that having to apply for benefits in person had contributed tragically to a suicide. And as a result, and partly because of that, and partly because it was in the middle of the pandemic, the DWP said that everyone applying for benefits has the right to apply by phone. Now, I think that is just ridiculous. I mean, when you're making a decision about someone who is potentially being signed off, not even having to look for work. And by the way, there's a tiny number of people who ever get out of that category once they're in it. In DWP jargon, they're called LCW are a limited capability for work related assessments. I mean, it's, you know, bureaucratic jargon. But the point is this should be a face to face discussion with someone who is working out how on earth do we deal with your issues so we can get you back into the labour market.
- [07:01]
Moderator/Interviewer
Can we talk about the sort of international economic scene and in particular Britain's ability to trade freely internationally? You've written about this in the book, you've talked about the kind of benefits that we got from investment from companies like Nissan and that was partly due to our membership of what was then the EEC would become the ec, would become the eu. Do you think that Britain should be thinking, should be considering rejoining the eu or do you think that there is a place for a sort of nimble actor outside the big block?
- [07:39]
Jeremy Hunt
I don't think we should be having that debate. And I would go, you don't like the debate or certainly, God, it was a nightmare, wasn't it, to have that debate? You know, it would just completely polarize British politics for years. And it was, it was bad. But I would actually go further. I voted to remain. I'm not sure I would vote to remain if the referendum were to be had today because the world has become so dangerous and so unstable. I think there is a premium on nimbleness, which I didn't think about in 2016 because the world was a lot safer. But I think for the uk. But let's get to the heart of your question, which is, can we survive outside the EU economically? And my view is very straightforward. We're perfectly capable of surviving inside or outside the eu, but it's a totally different economic model and we have to be very clear in our minds inside the eu. We had a very straightforward model. We were going to be the most pro business, low tax, light regulation economy inside the single market. So all those international companies from China and Japan and America who want to invest inside the EU would choose us also the English language and respect the legal system and other advantages. So that was a very straightforward model. Outside the eu, we have to think much more like a Korea, a Taiwan, an Israeli. Say, what are the products, which are the sectors where we're going to produce products that we're going to sell in every corner of the globe and we have to make sure that we are properly getting behind those sectors. And, you know, we've talked about tech, we've talked about life sciences, which has been having a few challenges recently, but that's, you know, Cambridge is the medicine innovation center of Europe. There's about 600 companies there. Extraordinary what is happening there. Creative industries is another one where we are, you know, the European hub, clean energy. You know, we have the world's largest wind farms and advanced manufacturing. We are also, you know, we do surprisingly well in things like aerospace, where, you know, half the world's large airplane wings are manufactured in North Wales at the Airbus factory there. So that's the approach I think we have to take.
- [10:18]
Moderator/Interviewer
Can I just ask you about government itself and whether you think there is the capacity for reform within government? You've talked about the sort of long lines of accountability into the nhs, the bedpan dropping wherever it is and resounding around Whitehall. You've talked about the Treasury's grip on, on departments. There's also the question of government being able to come up with the big ideas and implement them. What do you think the obstacles are?
- [10:52]
Jeremy Hunt
So I think that for very well meaning reasons, we have put in place in Whitehall a lot of accountability and process, which is completely justifiable on an individual level. So, you know, for example, the ability for an individual or a group of individuals to judicially review a government decision to build a nuclear power station or HS2 or a new dual carriageway is completely justifiable from the point of view of property rights and human rights law and all these different things. But what it has meant is that we are just too slow at getting things done and it's created in voters a niggle that frankly has turned into more than a niggle, that the people they send to Westminster just aren't able to grip the big problems that we face. And I thought it was rather sobering when Donald Trump came here and hopefully we can have a bit of a discussion about Donald Trump in a minute. But I thought it was rather sobering when he came here for his second state visit and he had only been in office at the time for eight months, and our Prime Minister had been in for 15 months. And illegal migration, in America's case, border crossings down by more than 90%. Of course, Donald Trump says 100%. I've stopped every single one. That's not true. But they are actually down 90%. And in our case, small boat crossings, just as politically toxic, up by a third. And, you know, you ask yourself, well, you know, we have a Prime Minister who absolutely says he's going to do everything by the book, follow the rules. You have a president who's doing actually quite brutal things when it comes to ice and all the ways that people are being disappeared off the streets, and I would never want that to happen here and advocate for it, but he is at least persuading the people who sent him to the White House that he's getting things done. And I think if we don't want to have methods like the methods that Donald Trump is employing, then we have got to find ways to get things done more quickly here.
- [13:27]
Moderator/Interviewer
We are going to come to audience questions in a moment, but I want to throw Donald Trump at you again. You met him, didn't you? You met him. What did you make of him?
- [13:36]
Jeremy Hunt
He's absolutely formidable. I mean, I had to greet him as Foreign Secretary when he came for his first state visit, and my job was to go to Stansted and welcome him to the uk. And Air Force One landed. It was a rather blustery morning, and we waited for the doors to open and they didn't open. And I thought, well, perhaps he's freshening up after an overnight flight or something like that. But anyway, eventually they did open. And the reason for the delay is that he had been having a Twitter war with Sadiq Khan. And literally, you know, I said to him, welcome to the United Kingdom, Mr. President. And the first thing he said was something completely unrepeatable about the Mayor of London. His very first words. And now, how unrepeatable? I mean, completely unrepeatable. No, they were pretty unrepeatable. And. But I would say. But it's interesting because I thought about this, and initially, when you tell that story, it kind of confirms a prejudice that you have about Donald Trump. You think, leader of the free world. How on earth has he got time to do something as ridiculous as have a Twitter war like that? But then, think about it another way. This man spends two to three hours a day on social media or TV or watching tv. I mean, you talk to the people around him. He doesn't get into his office until midday quite often because he's watching TV in the private quarters in the White House. Now, I think about this, I think about myself as Chancellor and I would do a media round maybe once a fortnight. I'd be coached by civil servants, they'd go through this difficult question, that difficult question. If I got through it without making a mess of it, I'd heave a sigh of relief for another two weeks. Now, with great respect, and I think it's the same for Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak and all of us in Westminster. But I think the President of the United States is marginally more busy than the British Chancellor of the Exchequer. And yet he's finding three hours a day to talk to people. And he's the one that's winning elections, not people like us. So my big point about Donald Trump is that if we want to start winning elections, we have got to start communicating like he does. And let's be honest, a 79 year old American man is a whole lot better at social media than any of us are.
- [16:14]
Moderator/Interviewer
Is he a help or a hindrance to Britain being great again?
- [16:20]
Jeremy Hunt
You know, he, I'm pausing there because I haven't got a sort of a quick answer. On the one hand, he has got a big soft spot for Britain and by the way, I think Keir Starmer has played it very well in terms of international diplomacy. I think it's a big achievement to be liked by the President of the United States and by Ursula von der Leyen and quite how he's managed that, I don't know. But he's got a kind of low ego style which I think has, you know, gone down well in both quarters. But so he, in that sense, I mean, Trump loves Britain. He gave that very extraordinary comment, I'm sure you heard it, Johnny, to Gary o', Donoghue, when he did an interview just before his state visit when he was Gary asked him, what do you think about Britain? And he said, you know, if America was under threat, if America was being attacked, I'm not sure that anyone would come to our rescue and fight for us, but I think Britain would. And so he feels a lot for Britain, so that's our advantage. On the other hand, he's not doing a great deal for the reputation of democracy on the global stage. And this is something that Britain is very closely identified with. And so in A way he's making our work a bit harder. So, you know, he creates a lot of work for us too.
- [17:53]
Moderator/Interviewer
Right, enough from me. Let's hear from the audience. I see, as a gentleman here, first.
- [17:58]
Jeremy Hunt
Of all, I liked your comments about nimbleness outside of the eu. How does China fit into this nimbleness? And what's the future with China vis a vis the earth? Our relationship with the us? Well, you know, this is actually quite topical at the moment, isn't it, how we deal with China? And I, I actually think we've been very naive in our approach to, to China. My wife is Chinese. Have very famously and embarrassingly got that wrong. But by the way, details are all in the book. So hard to remember, isn't it? Details are in the book, if you want to know that particular one.
- [18:35]
Sponsor/Advertiser Voice
But I.
- [18:35]
Jeremy Hunt
It's in some ways, but this is what, you know, if Johnny was interviewing Xi Jinping and he was sitting where I am now, he would say in total sincerity that autocracies are a better way of running a country than democracies because we can't get things done. So I think we have to be streetwise about the threat posed by China, but we also have to be prepared to look in the mirror and, and say, how can we show that we actually can get things done? I think, by the way, that he is wrong about that for another reason, which is that he doesn't have anyone around him who speaks truth to power. I mean, if you are president of China and you've run it in the way Xi Jinping does, are people going to speak out if they think you're making a mistake? It's like Putin's generals before Ukraine. They all told him it'd be over in 48 hours. And that's the risk you take with an autocracy. For all our faults, at least in a democracy, we can have an open discussion like this.
- [19:44]
Moderator/Interviewer
The lady at the front here, if.
- [19:45]
Jeremy Hunt
We can get a microphone to her. Thank you very much. Thank you.
- [19:49]
Mia Sorrenti
Thank you. Great talk so far. The devolution of the planning System and the 33, three or so London boroughs creates a complete bottleneck and a catastrophe for unlocking the housing crisis of London, albeit NHS workers and private sector workers. If you had your time again with a new era, what would you do to help solve that? Because help to buy has been a huge catastrophe for first time buyers causing negative equity and just fueled the balance sheet of house builders. What do you think could be the next thing? Could it be compulsory purchase orders with government and building in government departments or what's the big secret to that?
- [20:39]
Jeremy Hunt
Thank you. This is going to be really painful answer for me to give you, but I'm going to give it anyway. The answer is we should copy France. Because, you know, here's an interesting thing about France. And by the way, the next book I'm writing is also a positive book. It's about how to unlock economic growth. And I just want to tell you something fascinating about France. Over the last 30 years, you could not have had two countries, Britain and France, with more opposite strategies when it comes to their economy. I mean, this is like the most anti business country you could ever imagine. You know, massively high tax, very difficult labor laws, high unemployment, high regulation, lots of strikes. In Britain, we've gone totally the opposite direction. And yet our GDP and our GDP per head has virtually tracked that of France almost year by year. There's been no divergence. And if you look at why that is, the biggest single reason I believe, is that the French have been good at building things and we haven't. And in the 1970s we had about the same number of houses or dwellings as France with similar populations. Now France has got 24% more than us and the single. What's gone wrong? And this is what I, I genuinely would in the very unlikely situation that my government had been re elected and I carried on as chancellor. The big reform we need is with local government. We need directly elected mayors with full fiscal autonomy and they need to keep all the business rates that they generate in their area, all the local taxes instead of handing back to the treasury as happens here in France. All the local authorities have a direct financial incentive to improve as many planning applications as they can. They have to balance it against the wishes of local people to protect the culture of the area, which they fiercely do. But you've got parts of France with nuclear power stations where ever since they agreed to have a nuclear power station, they've had free broadband. There's a place in Loire called Kuwait sur Loire where they've given themselves free broadband as a result of the takings from a nuclear power station. And that's the big way we need to unlock it.
- [23:08]
Moderator/Interviewer
If you hold on, if you allow local authorities to hold on to their money and you don't have it redistributed by the treasury, you are also accused of entrenching inequality as well, aren't you? And you have to. That is the flip side of what you say there.
- [23:23]
Jeremy Hunt
Well, yeah, but there are lots and lots of different ways that you can redistribute opportunity. But the way we do it is actually worse because what happens is by defenestrating local authorities in Manchester and Newcastle and, you know, Cornwall, we actually make it impossible for them to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and turn their own local economies around. If Andy Ben, if Vernon wants to build a ring road around Manchester, he has to bang down the door of the treasury. And that would never happen with a city the size of Manchester in the United States or in Switzerland or in Germany.
- [24:09]
Mia Sorrenti
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Jeremy Hunt
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Mia Sorrenti
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Jeremy Hunt
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- [25:20]
Moderator/Interviewer
We have a gentleman here if we could. And then gentleman here and then the lady there. Thank you very much.
- [25:26]
Jeremy Hunt
Well, thank you for your very positive messages and all of that and I'm certainly an optimist. Now I'd like to raise on the migration issue. There is a critical need to keep the UK open and welcoming for investors, students and tourists. But all the noise about illegal activity, neither Conservative nor Labour made any progress on that subject. We've got to deal with that, but we must do it in a way strongly. But keep it separate from ensuring that the UK is open and welcoming. What more do you think can be done on that? Thank you. Well, it's such an important question and I actually know the gentleman who asked this question, who, like me, is married to an immigrant. And I think one of the best things about this country is that over centuries we have welcomed the brightest and best from all over the world. A third of our Nobel Prize winners. We often boast that we have the second Largest number of Nobel Prize winners after the United States. But a third of them were born abroad and came to the UK to do their studies. And you go right the way back to the Huguenots, the Jews, people who came from the Caribbean, people who've come from Eastern Europe. We have always flourished by being open. And the reason that I have become a total hawk on immigration is because I'm worried that that social contract is fraying and that people are beginning to say they want zero migration, which I think would be absolutely catastrophic for this country. So it is essential, I would go as far as to say, I hope we might be able to reform the echr, but if we couldn't, I would leave it, because we have to give people confidence that the people that they send to Westminster as their elected representatives are able to decide who comes into the country and who goes out. And that is not an unreasonable thing for people to think about their elected governments.
- [27:41]
Moderator/Interviewer
Thank you, gentleman. Here, sir.
- [27:43]
Jeremy Hunt
Thank you very much. There's so much of what you've said, it's difficult to know where to focus a question, but I'd like to link, if I may, your comments about the NHS with broader issues about growth. And perhaps this anticipates your forthcoming book rather than this one. It sounded as if your frustration with the NHS was that essentially we, to repeat the aphorism, we value what we can measure rather than measure what we should value. But aren't we doing the same thing with gdp, which is possibly a useful instrument, but not a particularly instructive or accurate one in terms of the strength of the UK economy? It excludes a lot of things that probably ought to incorporate, and it values a lot of things that we probably don't, as a society, value. Is it time for us to actually look at different ways of measuring the strength of our economy, regardless of whether we're sixth or seventh or fifth? It's a very good question. That's not quite what I would say about the nhs. I would get rid of all the national targets, but the one thing I would say is there should be complete transparency in every corner of the NHS about operational performance. So we should know how well this hospital is doing compared to that hospital, because that's what happens in schools. And I think that's, you know, we have a right to know. You're right. What gets measured gets done. But I think targets, I mean, I set up and ran my own business for 14 years and I think nearly everyone in the. We had about 250 people in my company by the Time I sold it. And I think nearly everyone had a target in the business, whatever side they were on, but it was one target. The problem is when you have like 18 or GPS have 44 QAF targets, then you are in the realm of micromanaging. I think that's the bit that's gone wrong. Bigger question about gdp. It's not perfect how we measure it and I'm sure we can improve it. But I'm not one of these people who says that, you know, we should put it to one side because it's not the same as happiness. It certainly isn't. But Angela Merkel had a wonderful saying. She said, growth isn't everything, it's true, but without growth everything is nothing. And I think that there is an element of truth in that.
- [30:20]
Moderator/Interviewer
I've got a linked question, I think it's linked from our online audience and it's, can growth ever be sustainable? If it can continues to depend on rising consumption and population.
- [30:33]
Jeremy Hunt
Well, I think the population is beginning to even out and I think the evidence is that as we become more prosperous, people tend to procreate less. And I think we do need to move to clean energy. I'm not one of these people who. I think we do need to take our climate change responsibilities seriously. So, you know, that means that we need during the course of this century to make sure we get to a net zero global economy. I do think the climate change agenda though, has got things slightly wrong. And I think that we have been really good on the altruism side. You know, the UK is decarbonized by more than any other major economy and we've not been thinking enough about the economic growth impact of higher energy prices. If you cut our energy prices by a quarter, then you would probably add between a quarter to a half a percent to economic growth every year. I'm still going through the numbers for my next book, but it's really quite a staggering increase in growth that we have foregone by having the highest energy prices of any major economy. I mean, this is a question I answer to you, I'm afraid. The French, again, they've got all their nuclear power stations. Their energy price is about half of ours. That's another thing that's helped them. And I think we do need to understand that clean energy matters, but so does cheap energy.
- [32:09]
Moderator/Interviewer
You believe that clean energy and the drive towards, towards clean energy has driven up our energy costs. I mean, clearly the French have a very different energy mix, but there's a fair amount of argument about whether or not the drive towards clean energy is a substantial cause for our higher energy costs.
- [32:29]
Jeremy Hunt
Well, it is a cause for our higher energy costs in a very literal way, that it adds about 200 quid to our bills every year, the levy, through the levy. So it does that, but it also does it in a kind of hidden way, which is that one of the. Because dear old treasury doesn't want to give direct subsidies to people building nuclear power stations, it guarantees them a high electricity price at the end of the process for the electricity that's generated. So you are effectively paying for it through higher energy prices that we will pay in the future. I think the transition is a good thing, but I just think that we need to think a little bit about the impact on economic growth. Otherwise the risk, frankly, is that the country at large just loses all faith in the whole climate change agenda and says, look, actually, we don't want to do any of this and the whole thing gets junked, which I think, which is kind of what's happening in America. And I think that, you know, that would be the wrong place to go.
- [33:30]
Moderator/Interviewer
Question from the lady here, if we can bring the microphone to her. Thank you very much.
- [33:35]
Jeremy Hunt
That's right.
- [33:36]
Moderator/Interviewer
Lovely. Thank you.
- [33:37]
Mia Sorrenti
Thank you very much. Thank you. Very insightful so far. Thank you. I think I'm just quite struck by your definition that you posited at the beginning of the great countries, and they're those that shape the world. And then, of course, the discussion becomes introspective because you have to say how and why. And I think for a consumer of the news cycle, someone on my side, it's hard to buy into that idea when you see the Crown Prosecution Service unable to pursue their aims in a prosecution because of what looks like an unease to affect a relationship, which obviously, from a pragmatic perspective, is very important, but we're not able to do that. It feels like a country that answers more than it states. So my question is really, and I suppose it's why your book is titled as a question is, are we wrong to feel, as the public, that we're not really shaping anything at the moment? We're only ever reactive.
- [34:38]
Jeremy Hunt
We are being far too reactive at the moment. I completely agree, but we don't have to be. And we've got a lot more power to influence things around us if we so choose. And, you know, I would. To people who say that we are utterly bereft of ability to shape things in the world, I would just say, well, you know, who else is in a better place to do it? I mean, obviously there are the two superpowers, China and the United States, by the way, both got really profound problems of their own. I mean, I would say, you know, for people who think China's going to overtake the world, I would recommend a brilliant book by the Swedish American academic called Johan Norbert called Peak Human, which came out this summer, in which he looks at all the great empires over human history. And he says the ones that succeed are the ones that are open to ideas and talent from around the world. And that is not China. China is closing up very, very fast. So they've got problems. America's got profound polarization, I hope. By the way, I think your employer, the BBC, the biggest job they have is to prevent the polarization that is happening in America and starts with the polarization of the broadcasting system. So outside those two, my question then is, who else? And I think that we are extremely well placed and we've got fantastic connections with Japan, Australia, Canada. We're actually getting much closer in terms of geostrategic issues with the eu, mainly because Ukraine has made everyone kind of grow up and forget all the Brexit wars. So I think we should be rolling our sleeves up.
- [36:32]
Mia Sorrenti
Thanks for listening to Intelligence Squared. This episode was created in partnership with Guinness Global Investors. It was produced by Hannah Kaye and it was edited by Mark Roberts. For more information on Guinness Global Investors, just head to guinnessgi.com or see the link in the episode description. You've been listening to Intelligence Squared. Thanks for joining.
- [36:58]
Sponsor/Advertiser Voice
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