This Week in Google (Audio) - Episode 788: Sausages in the Mist - CA AI Bill, OpenAI's Future

Released on October 3, 2024

Hosts and Guests:

• Leo Laporte (Host)
• Jeff Jarvis (Professor Emeritus, City University of New York)
• Ed Zittrin (BetterOffline.com)
• Emily Drybalbus (PC Magazine)

1. OpenAI’s Financial Struggles and Business Model Critique

The episode opens with a heated discussion about OpenAI’s recent financial disclosures. Ed Zittrin criticizes OpenAI's exorbitant valuations and unsustainable business practices.

• Ed Zittrin [00:05:27]: "They’re going to lose $5 billion and their business fundamentals are pretty bad."

Leo Laporte challenges Ed’s perspective, suggesting that OpenAI’s investment is a bet on future Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

• Leo Laporte [00:06:37]: "The upside is AGI. The upside is a world-changing technology that's bigger than the iPhone, the PC, and the Internet all rolled into one."

However, Ed remains skeptical about the feasibility and current viability of OpenAI's business model.

• Ed Zittrin [00:07:39]: "If that's how big it is, this market is small and there may not be a major product-market fit."

2. Sam Altman: Leadership Under Scrutiny

The conversation shifts to Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, with strong negative sentiments expressed by the panel.

• Ed Zittrin [00:12:07]: "I think he’s a con man. I think he’s a deceptive man. I think he’s a terrible businessman."

Jeff Jarvis concurs, adding to the critique of Altman’s leadership and business ethics.

• Jeff Jarvis [00:12:25]: "I actually have a Google Doc with all the reasons why Sam Altman is terrible."

3. Investment and Market Sentiment in AI

The panel discusses the massive influx of investment into AI, questioning its sustainability and the motives behind such funding.

• Ed Zittrin [00:08:00]: "They’re going to lose money here. So what I care about is the tech industry and I don’t like seeing it win."

Jeff Jarvis points out the parallels with previous tech investments like Uber, highlighting the risks involved.

• Jeff Jarvis [00:08:18]: "It's a big bet. And you know what? There was a similar big bet with Uber, which turns out to be not such a good business."

4. Environmental Impact of AI Development

Jeff brings up the environmental concerns associated with AI training, emphasizing the high energy consumption and carbon footprint.

• Jeff Jarvis [00:12:53]: "All that training is incredibly environmentally intensive. So all that money you’re seeing in this is going to just burning fossil fuels because data centers basically don't run on renewable energy for the majority."

Emily Drybalbus adds to the discussion by questioning the transparency and governance of AI investments.

• Emily Drybalbus [00:14:36]: "Is Altman going to try to have a two-tier or three-tier stock structure where he’s going to get more voting power than the 7% of actual equity that he’s being rumored to be given."

5. The Future of AI and Potential Market Crash

The hosts debate the future prospects of AI, with Ed predicting an imminent market crash due to unsustainable practices.

• Ed Zittrin [00:18:51]: "It's going to hit the market. And as I said, this could be a massive crash in a year or two."

Leo counters by asserting the continuous demand for software as the world becomes increasingly software-defined.

• Leo Laporte [00:26:24]: "I honestly think there’s going to be more demand, more need for code than ever before."

6. The Role of Legacy Media vs. Independent Media

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the shortcomings of legacy media in adapting to the rapidly evolving digital landscape, contrasting it with the agility of independent media outlets.

• Emily Drybalbus [00:55:03]: "I think the Times, in a time of dying media... the legacy media has messed up is they drain the personality from writers with house style."

Jeff Jarvis emphasizes the importance of having both fact-based reporting and opinion analysis to provide comprehensive coverage.

• Jeff Jarvis [00:72:00]: "You need both, but you need analysis."

7. Community, Loneliness, and the Impact of Technology

The panel delves into societal issues such as loneliness and the decline of community bonds, attributing some of these problems to the isolating nature of modern technology.

• Leo Laporte [00:61:00]: "We're all stipulating you're correct, that it's a bad business. Nobody's saying it's not a bad business."

Ed shares his personal struggles with loneliness and how online communities have been both a solace and a source of further challenges.

• Ed Zittrin [00:61:47]: "I've had the opposite experience moments of like the depression. I've found most of my support system through being online."

8. California AI Bill and Regulatory Challenges

Governor Gavin Newsom’s veto of the California AI Safety Bill sparks debate on the necessity and effectiveness of regulation in the AI sector.

• Leo Laporte [00:131:10]: "He said we cannot afford to wait for a major catastrophe to occur before taking action to protect the public."

Emily criticizes the performative nature of AI regulation, arguing that it fails to address the root causes of societal issues exacerbated by technology.

• Emily Drybalbus [00:136:43]: "It's about belonging. It's about a deep lack of community issues."

Jeff Jarvis draws parallels with the EU’s approach to AI regulation, noting similarities and differences in legislative attitudes.

• Jeff Jarvis [00:133:53]: "The EU bill does require companies to expose how their model works."

Notable Quotes:

• Ed Zittrin [00:05:27]: "They’re going to lose $5 billion and their business fundamentals are pretty bad."
• Leo Laporte [00:06:37]: "The upside is AGI. The upside is a world-changing technology that's bigger than the iPhone, the PC, and the Internet all rolled into one."
• Ed Zittrin [00:12:07]: "I think he’s a con man. I think he’s a deceptive man. I think he’s a terrible businessman."
• Jeff Jarvis [00:12:25]: "I actually have a Google Doc with all the reasons why Sam Altman is terrible."
• Jeff Jarvis [00:12:53]: "All that training is incredibly environmentally intensive."
• Ed Zittrin [00:18:51]: "It's going to hit the market. And as I said, this could be a massive crash in a year or two."
• Jeff Jarvis [00:26:24]: "I honestly think there’s going to be more demand, more need for code than ever before."
• Emily Drybalbus [00:55:03]: "I think the Times... drain the personality from writers with house style."
• Jeff Jarvis [00:72:00]: "You need both, but you need analysis."
• Leo Laporte [00:131:10]: "We cannot afford to wait for a major catastrophe to occur before taking action to protect the public."

Conclusion and Takeaways:

The episode presents a critical view of OpenAI’s current financial health and leadership under Sam Altman, questioning the sustainability of massive investments in AI without clear business models or societal benefits. The panel expresses concerns over the environmental impact of AI training and the potential for a market crash if current trends continue unabated.

Furthermore, the discussion highlights the failings of legacy media in adapting to digital transformations, emphasizing the need for more personalized and analytical journalism. The societal impacts of technology, particularly concerning community bonds and loneliness, are also examined, with a call for stronger offline interactions to counterbalance the isolating effects of digital platforms.

Finally, the regulatory landscape for AI, exemplified by California’s AI Safety Bill and its veto, underscores the ongoing struggle to balance innovation with safety and ethical considerations. The panel advocates for more thoughtful and empirical approaches to AI regulation, moving beyond performative measures to address the core issues at play.

For those interested in the detailed discussions and expert opinions on AI, technology, and media, Episode 788 of "This Week in Google (Audio)" offers an engaging and critical exploration of these pressing topics.