← Into Africa
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- [00:01]
A
Africa's role in the global system is changing, but so is the system itself. Power is diffusing, partnerships are becoming more transactional, and countries are navigating multiple alignments. At the same time, US relations with African countries are shifting from an aid paradigm towards trade, investment and more bilateral partnerships. The question, however, is how do these shifts intersect and what do they mean for Africa's future? Welcome to Into Africa, a podcast where we explore Africa's geopolitical landscape, its evolving global role, and the challenges and opportunities shaping the continent's future. I'm your host, Oge Onbogo, Senior Fellow and Director of the Africa Program at the center for Strategic and International Studies. Welcome to Into Africa. I'm your host Oge Onobogu, and I'm the Director and Senior Fellow of the CSIS Africa Program. To help us think about where all of this is headed, not just the next crisis cycle, but but the next 10 to 20 years, I'm joined by Yaqui Celias, Chairman of the Board and Head of the African Futures Program at the Institute for Security Studies based in Pretoria, South Africa. Jaqui, thanks for joining me in the studio today.
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B
Thank you very much for inviting me.
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A
Well, let's dive right into the conversation. And Yaaki, before we get into the substance of our discussion today, tell us a little bit more about the Institute for Security Studies and the Africa Futures Program.
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B
So let me start with the ISS. We were established in 1991 and we were very much a product of the South African settlement process. So I had engaged with the leaders of Unkontozwe, the armed wing of the anc, and Chris Harney in particular. And eventually that process led to the establishment of the ISS. In 1991. We changed. We our name was then the Institute for Defense Policy. We changed our name in 1996 and expanded. We originally focused on South Africa, but became increasingly regional working particularly I did years of work with the Organization of African Unity in Addis Ababa. And then I was the founder and the Executive Director of the institute until 2015 when I stepped down and established the African Futures and Innovation Program, which I still had. So I perform two roles at the Institute. I work as a full time program head on African Futures and Innovation and we basically feed a large website which I'm going to talk a little bit about. And then I'm the Chairman of the ISS Board of Trustees. But I don't have founder syndrome, so I don't try and manage the Institute from a distance. So let me tell you a little bit about the work that The African Futures and Innovation Program does and maybe we can get the slide up. We, we feed this monster which is a website and you will see top left that we have a partnership with Order NEPAD because all our work is in support of Agenda 2063. Generally we do long term forecasting on African futures out till normally 2043, which is the end of the third 10 year implementation plan of Agenda 2063.
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A
And can you say a little bit about Agenda 2063 because some, some folks may not be aware.
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B
So in 2013, the Mrs. Lamini Zuma, South African who was the head, the chair of the Africa Union launched Agenda 2063 which is a 100 year vision for Africa. It looks backwards to 1963, the establishment of the OAU and it looks forward 50 years to 2063. And Agenda 2063 is the vision of a peaceful, prosperous Africa at peace with itself and a global actor. And all our work is then done and Agenda 2063 is enabled in 10 year implementation plans. So 2013, 2023, 33, 43, 53, 63. As I said, our forecast horizon is normally to 2043. So thanks for, for asking me to explain that. So if you look at, you'll see that the two important issues on this website is geographies and themes. And if I'm first going to speak a little bit on what we do under themes. So what we do is we use a modeling platform from the University of Denver. So we're data people where we look at Africa's current path or as business as usual. So that's on the left hand side where we think Africa is headed on its current trajectory. And then on eight sectors we model a single positive scenario on financial flows, infrastructure, demographics, governance, agriculture, the continental free trade area, health and wash, manufacturing, leapfrogging and education. These eight sectors, we model them in quite detail. It's about 71 interventions we do in total or I think it's 96 to be quite accurate. That gives us. So we do positive scenarios in each of those eight sectors and that gives us what we consider to be Africa's development potential. We refer to that as the combined scenario in the middle agenda 2063, remember with a time horizon till 2043 in our case. So we basically say what would happen if Nigeria were to intervene positively in these sectors? And we model them and we benchmark the progress with what other countries at similar levels of development and characteristics have been able to do. We put that together and then we say what would Nigeria, what is Nigeria's Development potential. So that's the geographical side of the website and there's more than 4,000 charts and more than a million words of text on the site. So it's very, it's big on the right hand side. Then once we have done that, we look at what is the impact of climate change on Africa and on those scenarios, how does Africa work? How do global developments impact on Africa? What is the impact of those scenarios on employment, work and jobs? What does gender contribute to the achievement of Agenda 2063? And then we also model Africa's energy future. And to give you an idea, so this is, so we model this for every African country that's in the middle. The colors are, define low versus Low middle versus upper middle income countries and you won't see it. But Seychelles, which is our only high income country is not clearly visible. So if you click on any of those countries in the middle, you'll get taken to the forecast for that country. On those eight scenarios I spoke about, we aggregate the forecasts for each of the active regional economic communities. Ecowas, sarec, Kumesa, ecas, IGAD and the East African community. And then we also look at North Africa versus Sub Saharan Africa versus Africa. So that gives you an idea of both the geographies and the themes to give you an idea of what that looks like eventually. This is a forecast for GDP per capita of Nigeria until 2043. The bottom black part is our current path, that is GDP. Our forecast of GDP per capita for Nigeria out till 2043. And then the colored slices on top of that stacked area graph shows what the manufacturing contribution, continental free trade demographics will contribute to Nigeria's GDP per capita. So manufacturing has the largest impact. The manufacturing transition by 2043 will increase Nigeria's GDP per capita by US$534. In this case it's 2021 constant dollars. Yeah. So those, so that, that is a. So we do that for, for every African country and we measure the outcomes. And another outcome which typically we often use is what does those scenarios contribute to poverty reduction. So on the left hand side you have millions of people. On the right hand side you percent of Nigeria's population. And this, this gives you a size, this is ranked from the current path. Remember that's our current path. And then what is the contribution of a financial flow scenario, more better infrastructure, agriculture and so on to poverty reduction in Nigeria? And on the right hand side is what is the impact of that on the percent of the, of the population? So I'm not trying to explain what we do geographically and how we measure the various sectors. And I know later we'll get to some of the themes of particular demographics and Africa and the world. So that's a brief summary of this hungry beast that we feed. And each of these country and geographical analysis is several months of work.
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A
So this is all very interesting. So what does all this long term modeling that you do, what does it allow? You see that traditional policy analysis doesn't sort of miss it.
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B
So we are, as we all know, experiencing a rapid change, a rupture in global relations with good and bad effects. It brings a degree of uncertainty to where the world is headed. When you deal with structural issues, it takes a little bit of the noise out of the discussions and it makes you focus on the structural drivers. Yeah, some of them, like population, education and so on are slow moving but very powerful. Others of course, we can't measure, for example agency, you know, the decisions of particular leadership, which changes the world and changes Africa. So what it does, it helps to reduce uncertainty and to focus really on what are core things that will determine and affect and what can be done, what is realistic. Because often we like to do blue skies forecast where we think we can make Africa like Switzerland or whatever the case may be. Data forces you to constrain your ambition.
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A
So you talk about reducing uncertainty. So let's go big picture now and how should we understand, with all the modeling that you've done, how should we understand Africa's place globally today? Is it still marginal or increasingly central to the conversations that we're having today? And are we underestimating the future influence of the continent or overestimating the speed of change that we're seeing?
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B
So of course we are both guilty of gross generalization because we both deeply understand Africa's complexities, 54 countries and, and so on. We also know that the Africa Union is an intergovernmental secretariat, it doesn't have supranational powers and that a lot depends on the speed of Africa's trade integration through the continental free trade area. That is the single scenario that has the most powerful effect on GDP per capita, which is why, and it just makes sense, if you have a larger market, you attract more foreign direct investment, your own companies can trade across the continent. So yeah, so if we, if we look at, so we, we model individual African countries, then we, I've already made the point that regional trade integration is very important. But regional trade integration in my view will largely happen from sub regional to continental. It won't go top down through the continental free trade area. So let's, let's first caveat my response with a few sort of basic data points. Africa at the moment. And well, the US economy is 23% at the moment of the world's economy. By 2015. Sorry. By 2050, the US will be about 20% of the world economy. Slightly reduction. 5%. 5 percentage point reduction. The US has got 4% of the world's population. Africa is 3 or 4% of the world GDP, 3 or 4% of the world's economy. Economy. Yet we have 19% of the world's population. So by 2050 we get to about 5% of the world's economic size. Not much. It can get to 8% if all those eight sectors that we have modeled come together and our population goes from 19 to about 26%. So just think of that. A quarter of humanity lives in Africa by 2050. Quarter of humanity. That is huge implications. China, for example, goes from about 20% of the world's economy till 25%. Its population reduces from about 17% of the world's population to about 13%. So a different as China ages, different. So on the one hand, I'm saying to you that change in Africa we have deep structural challenges and change takes a long time, going from 3 to 5 or 8% by 2050 of the African. Africa's contribution to the global economy is very underwhelming for many Africans who think that Africa can be a superpower. Remember that the African continent is 54 different countries.
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A
So
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B
I think on the one hand, we underestimate the changes that are coming. If you look at population, Africa as the future potential consumer market and source of commodities and all kinds, it is the next big thing. But it's going to take longer than most of us think. And therefore policymakers in the US and elsewhere need to think how to position themselves for that future. Although it may still seem a long way, a long time away.
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A
So if we go back to some of the information that you have on, on your website, one of the themes that you, you all have modeled is you lay out different global futures. You look at the potential of a divided world, a growth world, a sustainable world, and a world at war. Which of those trajectories do you think we're actually moving towards right now?
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B
So because I don't have a crystal ball and because I cannot predict the future, we can frame the future and then look at where we are headed. We have tried to do that and this is the framing we used. We said, let's use very traditional sort of two by two framing. On a vertical axis we ask what is. We put interconnected globalized world versus nationalist populism. On the horizontal axis we put decreased mitigation and adaptation versus increased decreased versus increased mitigation and adaptation. That gives you four worlds. Sustainable world, a divided world, a world at war and a growth world. Because we can't predict, we need a framework to be able to frame our understanding. I'm not going to go. There's lots of detail on this. A sustainable world is in our modeling, in our framing out till 2050. It's sort of initiated by middle powers with progress towards rule based world including reform global governance institutions. Summary A divided world which is the closest to where we are headed at the moment. Remember that these are four archetypes. They are not predictions. They are four difference for alternatives that help us to shape where we are. But this is a fragmented tense world of clubs, a retreat from the global rules based system, no global consensus on climate change and blah blah blah. The world at war is a world of success of wars that escalate either from the Middle East. China is eventually in this world. It takes Taiwan, but is eventually confronted by India. And that is another source of conflict. That's a growth world. Sorry, a world at war. A growth world is where power and money dominates. This is where the US and China reach a grand bargain and technology and money drive the world. So these four worlds give you four completely different outcomes on how you can think about the future of the world. And they have different implications for Africa. In a sustainable world, trade integration progresses. The continental free trade area is fully implemented. Better governance. Africa grows at about average for 54 countries 6.3% annually. Divided world, there's no clear African voice. Countries, there's a typing error are instrumentalized. Average growth rates is a little bit lower. World at war, of course is the smallest African economy. Succession movements multiply. War in Africa. Growth world is a world of winners and losers. African allegiances fragment. But Africa grows about as fast as it does under the sustainable world. But this is a highly unequal and unsustainable world. So we use those framings to try and provide a handle on how to understand the long term. But it is very evident that the current trajectory is towards a divided world. And unfortunately the future towards the sustainable world is most likely through a crisis. If I were to go go back to to the global futures, it is probably only eventually a crisis. A global crisis that could be brought by war or by the effects of climate change. That could affect the move towards a sustainable world. Because the sustainable world is the most difficult to achieve. It is also probably the most unlikely of our, of our futures. But once we do that, we can then once we, we model these, we use a modeling platform from the University of Denver. Then we look at what is the implication of that. For example, on extreme poverty where we. This is a chart that shows from 2025 until 2050% of Africa's population that live in extreme poverty. And the sustainable world, which is the bottom line is of course the world the in which Africa's extreme poverty rates comes down the most rapidly. So that helps you to frame Africa and what is. And I think our main conclusion is really that Africa's foreign policy and development efforts should unequivocally advance a rules based future. Because what is a rules based world? A rules based world is a protection of the weak. That's what rules are about. Rules are not there for the protection of the strong. So that also means where does Africa, if it has to make a choice, where does it align with who is in pursuit of a rules based world? So Africa needs to pursue sustainable growth actively, actively support the evolution to a next generation global peace, security and trading system that is more amenable to Africa's interests. So this kind of structural analysis surfaces, key drivers if I so wish, or interests of Africa.
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A
Mm. So Yaaki, just to push a little bit on that, you're here in Washington D.C. with US and as we look through these different scenarios and we're looking at the change in nature of US relations with different African countries and as partnerships become more transactional, what happens to the way the US engages with the African continent?
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B
So I've spoken about structural stuff. Structural stuff on the one hand is easy. What we can't model is agency, what leadership does. President Trump is a good example of how leaders change the world and can change the world for Africa. I've already indicated the most important driver of Africa's growth and prosperity is rapid trade integration for obvious reasons, larger markets and so on and so forth. Once you discount that, then you say, once you accept that, then you recognize that Africa's development pathway is probably the same pathway that other countries have followed. Going through an agricultural revolution, going up the manufacturing curve, eventually through agro processing and eventually probably becoming services dependent. But at the moment services dependency is very characteristic of high income countries. But Africa, all African economies are services dependent, but it is dominant. But these are low end services in informal, often slum areas which do not really add the productive structures to the African economy. For Africa to change, it probably needs a manufacturing transition, but there is also other sectors like tourism and so on that can help change the productive structures of the African economy. So I think that what our argument. So if those were the fundamentals of development and what Africa needs, then, you know, from there you can move on to what should African leadership and Africa's partners and those with an interest prioritize on the continent.
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A
So looking beyond the US now, but also in some of your scenarios, you also look at the role of middle powers and other actors that are engaging on the continent, from China to the Gulf states to India and so many other actors. So how would you, you sort of interpret US engagement relative to that of China or the Gulf states? Do you have any scenarios or have you mapped out anything on that through the project?
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B
So the world has changed and the us, I think in Africa is probably playing a bit of catch up at the moment because of the damage that was done through the generous support that the US has provided on health, humanitarian issues, on power, and the way in which that was done, that has caused a significant amount of damage. But it is strange to see that many Africans in actual fact have an admiration for the fact that the US is perhaps more clear about its interests and that most Africans want trade, they do not want to be dependent on anybody. So there's a bit of a dichotomy between how Africa, what how Africa views the US and US engagement. But I think at the moment, in one of the, we look at how influence and trade is evolving. And clearly in that sense, Africa is turning largely towards China, which is Africa's major trading partner, and that invests not only in building infrastructure, but also in manufacturing in Africa for Africa. And I think there are also huge barriers and challenges to that. But there is a danger, I think, that the US does not place enough priority on Africa as its future potential and does not prioritize Africa for its, for the US's own interests, but also of course, for Africa's interests. Because this is, as I said, this is the next big thing that's going to happen economically. It is the most unexplored region, that's the largest genetic variety, variety, mineral potential, agricultural potential, and that all is going to provide countries that invest on the continent, that partner with the continent with a huge advantage. So my view would be, and at the moment I think the US is losing ground to its, to its partners, both to Europe, which is stepping in to try and fill the gap from, from the us, but in particular to China, because the, the Chinese are moving ahead. Their economies are growing, their demand for resources and their investment in partnership with Africa is growing. And I don't think that's what Africans want. If you, if you ask me, Africans, they, they democracy and strength and belief in human rights and good governance are deeply embedded because of our history on the continent.
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A
Yeah.
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B
So the question is, how do we advance that, our own interests in this debate. So, long story short, I think the US needs to be careful that it does not have to play catch up in the long term for the next big thing.
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A
Thanks for laying that out. And just to come back to a point that you had made about demographics, because I know that you all have done some really interesting work on this. So Africa's youth bulge is something that is often framed as eating either a dividend or a crisis. So based on the modeling that you've done, which is it really? Is this a dividend or is it a crisis?
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B
It could be either.
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A
It could be either.
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B
You know, so we've done a lot of work. I, I've gone to the demographics page or theme on our, on our website, and this is one of the themes of the, I think 14 themes on the website. So I always make, I generally make the argument that one must understand that economic growth, I'm not an economist, comes from labor, capital and technology. And when you speak of labor for developing countries, the contribution of labor is the most important source of economic growth. And I've already made the point, nothing is more important for Africa than rapid economic growth. It needs to be inclusive and all of those things. So when you speak of a demographic dividend, you are speaking of the relationship of working age people to dependents. So classically, that is the group of your portion of your population or ratio of your population 15 to 64 versus children and elderly. Children and the elderly are the dependents. And if you get to a ratio of 1.7 and above, you enter a potential demographic window of opportunity if other conditions hold. Now, the problem is that, or this is the main reason why Africa has grown slowly. People like to comment on poor governance, corruption, you name it, but it's actually demographics. From until about 1985, the ratio of working age people to dependents in Africa actually decreased. It got to about one working age people supporting one dependent. You cannot grow under those circumstances. You can't grow GDP per capita. Sorry. And I remember that I said the contribution that labor makes to economic growth was declining. Therefore, and with little capital and low technology levels, African economies grew slowly until the global Commodities boom lifted that and then that started to change from 1985. So this is a chart that shows from 1963, the establishment of the OAU until the end of the century. There's two lines, three lines. There is firstly, the world, except Africa. It shows there's a dashed line. And that dashed line is at which point you enter your potential demographic window of opportunity. The rest of the world peaked at about 2010 around there. And then we have Africa's current path and the scenario that we have created. And the scenario that we have created, modeled, tries to advance Africa's demographic dividend and to increase the size of the demographic dividend on the current path. Africa only enters a demographic dividend on about 2052. So we are still several years away from entering a potential demographic window of opportunity. So unless you change the contribution that labor makes to growth for low and low middle income countries, Africa can't grow. Once you achieve that, you need to compensate. You need to accelerate that through technology and investment. So what we've done here is just simply to show how we could advance Africa's demographic dividend by about 10 years. We can increase the ratio of working age people to dependents. And that ratio of demographics of dependents to working age people to dependents is in actual fact one of the main reasons for China and the Asian tigers growth. Labor. People underestimate the importance of labor because they get carried away with technology and this kind of stuff. So I think that this issue is hugely important. So, you know, lots of stuff, demographics, total fertility rates, hugely sensitive issue in Africa, very careful how to approach it. But if you approach it from an economic development perspective, it is clear that unless particularly high fertility countries get on top of their demographics, they can't advance their demographic window of opportunity. And there, you know, various measures that could be done. But from a structural point of view, demographics is really hugely important for Africa's future. So a long answer to a short question. It's very important.
- [30:35]
A
No. So what do you think? You know, and you may have referenced this already in some of the points that you've made, but what must happen for this? Africa's for the Ute bulge to actually become a real economic dividend for the continent.
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B
So we need to invest in education now, technical education that prepares Africans for the future. We need to invest in health because a youth labor force needs to be well educated and healthy. And then we need to give them the tools. On the one side, many would argue that, yes, the labor on its, and of course labor on its own is not going to make the contribution, but people find a way. If the labor force grows, eventually they will create opportunities and the infrastructure and the other things will follow. So I think that advancing education for the future, appropriate education for Africa is going to be absolutely critical.
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A
So let's come back to the trade conversation, because you've mentioned, you've referenced it already and obviously there is, as I mentioned, sort of the shift in the US approach to engagement with countries on the African continent. So there's a conversation on trade over aid. From the modeling that you've done and from the work that you've done, is the African continent really positioned to benefit from this moment when it comes to trade? Or is this rhetoric, is this discussion ahead of the reality that we see on the front?
- [32:13]
B
Africa needs both trade and aid. That's just the reality. And as you know, it's not really a binary choice between the two. Poor countries don't have large markets and sectors that American companies and others can invest in. And unless we get trade integration going, it's not gonna. So. And we don't. Yeah, we don't have large enough markets. That's why trade integration is so important. So poor countries need support, they still need aid, but it is what we do with aid that makes a difference. And Africa has not done well with aid because what has happened is we have gotten, we've got a drip feed of aid that has steadily increased to huge levels over, over decades. But we didn't do like the South Koreans, whatever did, who got a lot of aid but then used it to transform their, their productive structures. We've not done that. So low, low middle income countries still need support. And then we need to move forward on trade integration in particular, because that will unlock manufacturing growth, it will unlock foreign direct investment, and of course, remittances covers all of that. So eventually Africa, Africa doesn't want to be dependent on aid. It wants to trade as an equal partner in the world. We need to create the structures and the incentives to allow that. And that requires huge amounts of domestic reform, particularly in our financial markets and in variety of areas. That means that Africa can start to invest in Africa and domestic investment is unlocked and that will eventually be compensated by international investment. Huge opportunities on the continent and modern technology can help a lot. You probably heard me made the point that the most important thing for Africa is to unlock household electricity and broadband Internet, because those are the two prerequisites for leapfrogging.
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A
So let's move in slightly from sort of the data conversation now to getting really into how this evidence sort of helps inform a lot of the policy conversations and decision making. We now have new leadership as Senate confirmed Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Frank Garcia. So in your opinion, from the evidence that you've collected on the ground, based on your research and your years of doing this, what really do you think should be the top priority of our State Department now when it comes to its engagement with the continent?
- [34:46]
B
I think in, in my reading of the situation, and I'm not a student of, of the United States and I don't understand much of what happens aside, it's as if so US interest in Africa investment in Africa has been declining for several decades. When you look at at that as a portion of GDP and so on and of course what has happened, the way in which change happened with U.S. aid and others caused a lot of damage and the actions and the rhetoric that has accompanied some of this and we simply have to look at the US national strategy, defense strategy, to see the extent to which Africa doesn't really feature. I think what, what the US lacks is a vision for its engagement with Africa. It sees Africa as a little bit of a chessboard where it plays against China. Africans don't want that. We cannot, we don't want to make a choice between the and we will not make a choice between the U.S. the Europe, China, India. We need all your help and support and we want to trade with all of you and we want to engage, we want stability. So I think that creating a positive vision I think is hugely important. And in that positive vision, the messaging of what's in this for the US I think sometimes come is perceived quite negatively on the continent. The US is the largest economy, the most powerful country in the world. Yet it seems to say we're only, we only deal with others on a transactional basis to our benefit. We're looking at mutual benefit. We are the next big global market and you have huge amounts of capital technology that can invest in Africa. It's a win win situation. And we have to create that win win, I think, dialogue.
- [36:29]
A
So I've often heard you say, and you've said this on several occasions, that Africans will have to lead the way on this change. And so if Africa is going to move is the African continent. And then I say that not to generalize, if the African continent is going to shift from being a participant in these global conversations to a real shaper of the discussions at the table. What is the one structural shift that matters most?
- [37:01]
B
From a structural point of view in Africa, it is the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area. It is trade integration. It unlocks so many other things going up the value chain and so on. That is the most important transition. Having said that, Africa needs an agricultural revolution. It's never had an agricultural revolution. We are, we're becoming more food import dependent by the year. Africa needs to go up the manufacturing curve because manufacturing changes your productive structures of your economy. And of course, above all else, we need leadership that is committed to the growth of the continent. It's the one thing that can change everything and that we struggle with. But it is always important to remember that Africa is poor in general senses in many countries it's also rich, but it's about as poorly or badly or well managed as you would probably expect given the levels of development of some of those countries. And sometimes one gets the impression US companies aren't really interested to engage in the, in the, the fight doing to really trade and to take the punishment that goes with and the hard work to unlock the future market.
- [38:19]
A
And so, you know, I think just going from that point that you've made, do you think that the African continent could play a significant role in shaping or will play a significant role in shaping the global system or will it still continue to figure out its place within all these global geopolitical discussions that are happening? And the part of the US and seeing the shifts and the pivots that are happening now in the relationship that the US has with different African countries. Will the US eventually be a partner, a strong partner, the preferred partner, or just one of many competitors?
- [39:06]
B
I hope that the US will be a strong and a preferred partner. The values that the US has traditionally stood for are hugely important for Africa. And practically we need your deep capital markets, we need your technology, we need your innovation. We need only a US technology can for example unlock probably our energy. If you speak of nuclear requirements, because Africa needs energy hugely. SpaceX and companies like that have the ability to provide broadband Internet access and so on. So technology is a huge enabler and it is to the benefit of, of Africa and to the US So, but most important of all, Africa does not want an authoritarian developmental model. Africans look a little bit suspiciously at the sort of dog eats dog politics of the US but they look with much greater fear about the authoritarian developmental models that perhaps China presents. Africans want democracy, they want to respect for human rights, they want decency. And the question is, who's going to lead a new global rules based order? Is it going to be the U.S. it's going to be The Europe, is it going to be a coalition of middle powers like Carney has said? But it certainly probably is not, not going to be China.
- [40:32]
A
So, you know, one of the things we do here on into Africa is that we always like to, after a very heavy conversation, we always try to end with some optimism. And so Yaaki, when we sit down 10 to 15 years from now, hopefully 10 to 15 years from now, what will have surprised you most about Africa's role in the world and what are you most hopeful, hopeful for when you do this work? And you know, kind of put an interesting spin on this, on this question and is there a song or a book by an African musician or an African author that exemplifies this hope for you?
- [41:15]
B
I read a lot and I engage a lot. But the book that I have enjoyed the most recently is not by an African. It's Joe Studwell who wrote our Africa work, How Africa Works, because I like Joe's analysis and we agree in actual fact on the drivers of development and our analysis of, of Africa's issues informed amongst others by, by demographics. So that, that certainly is, is, is a book that I would recommend. I think the issue that gives one most hope in Africa is the sense of dynamism and optimism in Africa. It is so interesting when you travel to the us, to Europe and elsewhere, how the, how people are pessimistic or optimistic. Africans are incredibly optimistic, energized, full of life, new technology, they tap and pay. In the US you still use dollars, money, and it's just a different world. And that, that optimism, that energy, that drive is absolutely amazing. And that human capital drives development. And that I think is what gives the greatest hope. So Africa's youthful population, which we discussed, which is a potential source of instability, but also it's a great source of hope that I think will eventually make sure that Africa grows and develops and becomes this big market that we're talking about.
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A
Thank you so much, Jaqui, for joining us today. This has been a very informative conversation. We'll definitely encourage our listeners to check out the Africa Futures website. A lot of information, a lot of data on there. Thank you for all the work that you've been doing. And so I think we've all heard it here. Africa's future will be shaped not only by internal transformation, but by how it navigates a more competitive, transactional, global system. Africa's future is not just a question of growth, but of power, agency and voice. And the choices made today by African leaders and global partners alike will determine whether the continent remains embedded in global systems or begins to reshape them. And for partners like the United States, the challenge is really clear. Adapt or become less relevant. Thank you so much for joining us on Into Africa. Thanks for listening to Into Africa. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe. Wherever you listen to your podcast, you can find more analysis from the Africa program on our website CSIS.org or find us on social media. Search for SISAfrica on X, LinkedIn and Instagram.