Into Africa – "Cameron Hudson on the Internationalization of the Sudan War"

Released: May 29, 2025
Host: Katherine Mzuki (filling in for Mvemba Phezo Dizolele)
Guest: Cameron Hudson, Senior Fellow, CSIS Africa Program

Episode Overview

In this installment of Into Africa, Katherine Mzuki speaks with Cameron Hudson to unravel the ongoing Sudanese civil war, which has now lasted three years with catastrophic impacts on Sudan’s people and regional security. Hudson brings his expertise as a leading analyst and former chief of staff to multiple U.S. Special Envoys for Sudan, offering a candid analysis of the war’s origins, its devastating toll, the intensifying involvement of foreign actors, and the diminishing ability of both African and Western states to broker peace.

The conversation delves into Sudan’s explosive geopolitics, the complicated web of international interests, and the potential global consequences if the war continues unchecked.

Causes and Evolution of the Sudan War

[01:21–03:25]

• Roots of the Conflict:

  • The immediate origins lie in the aftermath of Sudan's 2019 popular revolution, which led to the ousting of long-serving dictator Omar al-Bashir.
  • Sudan’s military removed Bashir, trying to maintain control while appeasing protestors.
  • An internationally-backed transitional civilian government began dismantling the former regime, targeting ill-gotten gains and instituting reforms threatening military interests.
  • In 2021, two security powerhouses – Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF, descended from the Janjawid militia) – overthrew the civilian prime minister and entered into a dangerous power-sharing standoff.
  • With no strong civilian or military figure to hold factions together:

    "The competition and the rivalry and the tension between them spilled over into open warfare. And now we have entered the third year...between these two armies in the country." (Hudson, [02:55])

• Unique Nature of This War:

  • Unlike Sudan’s previous conflicts (which happened in outlying regions), this war began in the capital, Khartoum.
  • The urban setting has resulted in unprecedented violence, directly affecting political elites and the core state infrastructure.

Humanitarian Catastrophe

[03:25–04:50]

• Staggering Civilian Impact:

  • Out of roughly 50 million Sudanese, over 26 million desperately need humanitarian aid.
  • Five million live in famine-like conditions; up to two million refugees have fled, and 9–10 million are internally displaced.
  • Destruction is worst in and around Khartoum, reflecting the war’s political stakes.

  "Civilians have borne the brunt of this conflict. ... One of the unique features of this war is that, unlike most of Sudan's wars, this one started in the capital." (Hudson, [03:28])

The Internationalization of the Conflict

[04:50–08:57]

• Sudan as an “International Arms Bazaar” (notable quote):

  "Sudan is today an international arms bazaar. ... The war itself has fully transformed into a battle for influence among a host of local and regional actors who seek economic, geopolitical, and strategic gain." (Hudson, [04:50], quoting host paraphrasing testimony)

• Layers of Involvement:

  • Neighboring States: Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea—each hosts refugees and, often, aids one faction (usually RSF via recruitments and weapons transfers).
  • Near Region: Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, UAE), Egypt, Turkey—drawn by economic interests in Sudanese resources and food, as well as strategic interest in Red Sea access.
  • Wider International Players:
    • China and Russia: Selling arms; Russia seeks Red Sea access.
    • Iran: Cultivating influence on the Red Sea’s western shore after setbacks in Yemen.
    • United States and Europe: Traditionally mediators, but now sidelined and less influential as new powers engage directly.
  • The regional proxy contest for influence and resources is feeding and escalating the conflict.

  "If you think about it in terms of concentric circles ... every single neighboring state to Sudan is involved in one way or another." (Hudson, [05:28])

The Changing Nature of Warfare: Drones and Unpredictability

[08:57–10:57]

• Foreign Actors’ Decisive Impact:

  • The continuation and escalation of warfare depend entirely on the influx of foreign-supplied arms and money.
  • The introduction of drones and advanced weaponry (e.g., Turkish drones used by SAF, Emirati ties to the RSF) has eliminated traditional seasonal lulls and made every location in Sudan vulnerable.
  • Example: Recent drone attacks, with tit-for-tat strikes over 1,200 miles apart in Nyala and Port Sudan.

  "In the context of a drone war, there is no rainy season anymore. ... No part of the country is safe." (Hudson, [09:35]) "The conflict would not be entering its third year were it not for the role of foreign actors." (Hudson, [08:57])

Why Peace Talks Have Failed

[10:57–12:21]

• No Peace Talks to Derail!
  • Regional actors' support for the warring parties prolongs the conflict, but they are not “derailing” peace—because genuine talks haven’t occurred.
  • U.S. diplomatic leverage is greatly diminished:

    "There was no threat, there was no sanction, there was no leverage that the United States could use to get the army to show up to those talks. ... We no longer have that level of influence right now." (Hudson, [11:40])

  • The U.S. lacks the power it once held to force parties to the table.

Could Renewed U.S. Leadership Bring Peace?

[12:21–15:08]

• Trump Administration’s Unique Position:

  • President Trump’s direct relations with regional players (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt) could be a diplomatic asset.
  • U.S. ambitions to expand Abraham Accords are relevant, as Sudan is a signatory; U.S. needs to navigate the fact that its Gulf partners back opposite sides in Sudan:

    "At some point the road to Middle east peace is going to have to lead through Khartoum." (Hudson, [14:20])

• Value of a High-Level Special Envoy:

  • Effective peace efforts demand an envoy with genuine access to the President, not a mere “box-checking exercise.”
  • Hudson is skeptical of a Sudan-specific envoy at this moment; prioritizes focusing on regional state leverage first, and using existing Middle East diplomatic infrastructure:

    "If they [Sudanese actors] believe that it's not [a U.S. priority], then they're not going to listen, they're not going to engage. ... We have to put real skin in the game by having someone who has access to the Oval Office." (Hudson, [15:19]) "What we really need at this moment in time to stop the killing...is to focus on these regional states we've been talking about." (Hudson, [17:13])

The Role (and Failure) of African Institutions

[18:06–19:47]

• Why Not the African Union or Regional Bodies?

  • African Union and regional groups have failed to lead.
  • "Neighboring states have all taken a stake... profiting” or suffering from the conflict – making consensus elusive for African-led mediation.

  "The African Union hasn't shown more leadership, more unity. ... For the Peace and Security Council to chart a path forward takes more unity and consensus than we have seen from the neighboring states." (Hudson, [19:25])

What If the U.S. Stays Out? The Looming “Failed State” Scenario

[19:47–22:42]

• Consequences of Inaction:
  • Sudan risks complete state failure, paralleling Libya, Somalia, Syria, with conflict fragmenting into dozens of local warlord fiefdoms.
  • Such collapse would draw in even more foreign fighters, destabilize the region, and provide space for jihadist groups (ISIS, Al Qaeda, Shabaab) much as occurred in the Sahel.

    "We could go from a situation where you have two generals fighting a war to 50 colonels fighting a war." (Hudson, [20:37])

  • Sudan’s collapse would have ripple effects for Africa, the Middle East, and globally, ending hopes of economic progress on the continent.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Sudan as an “International Arms Bazaar”:

  "Sudan is today an international arms bazaar. ... The war itself has fully transformed into a battle for influence among a host of local and regional actors who seek economic, geopolitical, and strategic gain." (Hudson, as referenced by host, [04:50])

• On Civilian Suffering:

  "Civilians have borne the brunt of this conflict. ... This war has really been a war about the political control and the political future of the country." (Hudson, [03:28])

• On Foreign Arms Prolonging the War:

  "The conflict would not be entering its third year were it not for the role of foreign actors." (Hudson, [08:57])

• On U.S. Diplomatic Leverage:

  “We no longer have that level of influence right now, or at least we’re not seen to.” (Hudson, [11:49])

• On Potential for Catastrophic Spillover:

  “We could go from a situation where you have two generals fighting a war, to 50 colonels fighting a war.” (Hudson, [20:37])

Key Takeaways

• Sudan’s war is fueled and escalated by direct foreign involvement; absent this, the conflict would likely have stalled already.
• The humanitarian crisis is immense—at least half the population displaced or desperate for aid.
• Regional and international actors view Sudan as a pawn in wider struggles for economic and geopolitical advantage, making peace elusive.
• U.S. and African-led diplomatic efforts are paralyzed or marginalized. Only high-level, unified external pressure could shift incentives for the warring parties.
• A failure to act risks Sudan’s fragmentation—opening the region to terrorist safe havens and wider instability, much as occurred after Libya’s collapse.

Episode flows with urgency, frankness, and deep expertise, illuminating a crisis that rarely makes global headlines—but demands international attention.

For those interested in African geopolitics, humanitarian crises, and U.S. foreign policy, this episode offers an in-depth, indispensable perspective.