Podcast Summary: Into Africa – "Connecting the Dots: Africa’s Year Ahead"

Host: Oge Onubogu, Senior Fellow, Director of the Africa Program, CSIS
Guests: Fonte Akom (Executive Director, ISS, Pretoria), Raymond Gilpin (Chief Economist & Head of Strategy, Regional Bureau for Africa, UNDP)
Date: January 15, 2026

Overview

This opening episode of Into Africa's 2026 season sets the tone for the year, reflecting on 2025's pivotal moments and projecting the key political, economic, and social dynamics that will shape Africa in the coming months. The conversation focuses on Africa’s emerging agency in global geopolitics, lessons from the G20 summit hosted in South Africa, the reality behind GDP growth narratives, youth movements and governance, and the significance of new financial mechanisms such as the African Credit Rating Agency.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. 2025 in Retrospect: Defining Moments & Emerging Themes

• Geopolitical Milestones:

  • New leadership at the African Union; ECOWAS turns 50.
  • Major conflicts persist: M23 advances in DRC, ongoing Sudanese war, threats of civil war in South Sudan.
  • Significant coups and attempted coups underscore West African fragility.

• African Agency & International Engagement:

  • Growing anticipation around U.S. policy post-2024 Trump victory and the impact of Project 2025 on Africa.
  • Increased Gulf state involvement in the Horn of Africa, acting both as mediators and spoilers.
  • Turkey's rising diplomatic profile and expanded connectivity on the continent.
  • EU-AU partnership milestone and unmet expectations for tangible, pro-development, and pro-democracy impacts.

"So in terms of the engagement of new players, that was something we needed to mark...not necessarily materialized into some of the kind of pro development, pro democracy and pro peace actions that one would have anticipated." — Fonte Akom (07:13)

2. G20 Summit in South Africa: Symbolism and Substance

• Historic First:
  • South Africa hosted the G20 for the first time on African soil, marking the end of the initial rotation among member countries.
• Elevating Africa's Voice:
  • Push to recognize that "we don’t just belong around the table, we have agency around the table."
• Key Issues Debated:
  • Financing, debt, climate change, trade, and the move away from a fractured world order.
  • South Africa’s effective leadership spotlighted, though U.S. summit presence was notably lacking.
  • U.S. participation occurred mainly in technical conversations.

"Africa’s development prospects have to be viewed from within the context of a global economic construct...has to be trade and productivity and high value job creation." — Raymond Gilpin (14:22)

3. Geopolitics, Security, and Competition

• African Agency & Rules-Based System:
  • The global order’s rules-based system is crucial for weaker nations to counterbalance major powers.
  • Greater inclusion and reform in global institutions remain imperative.
• Complex Competition:
  • Expect continued geopolitical contestation in zones like the Sahel with U.S., Russian, and European interests intersecting.
  • Increasing African capacity to negotiate partnerships, leveraging competition for national benefit.
• Economic Focus:
  • Industrialization and moving beyond extractives, with projects like the Lobito Corridor gaining importance.

"African countries have to move up the beneficiation ladder and move beyond the narrative of extractives." — Fonte Akom (20:48)

4. Beyond GDP: The Truth about Economic Growth

• Cautions Against Over-Optimism:
  • Sharp GDP growth ("7 out of the 10 fastest growing economies") often masks distributional and fiscal realities.
  • The need for metrics beyond GDP: focus on tax regimes, job quality, and value chains.
  • Many investments still do not deliver high-skill, high-wage jobs or fiscal benefits to African economies.

"Analysts really have to shed the cloak of what I would call intellectual laziness...not just looking at the headline aggregate GDP, but...how we can connect that headline aggregate to fiscal, to jobs, to socioeconomic issues." — Raymond Gilpin (26:44)

5. Youth Movements, Governance, and Real Change

• Youth as Change Agents:
  • Youth-led protests reflect deep frustration, yet rarely translate to sustainable accountability or transformation.
  • Movements have been resilient and have spurred social conscientization, but structural state-capture and entrenched elites blunt outcomes.
  • Exception: Notable youth-driven political change recently in Senegal.
• Challenges:
  • Low international funding for democracy strengthens these programs.
  • Need for long-term, strategic organization and intergenerational policy engagement.
  • Institutionalizing youth participation and communication to bridge policy-practice gaps.

"Mobilization during presidential elections most often than not, has failed to deliver the kinds of change that most youth movements seek...the only place where the youth have actually reasoned against the status quo and gotten the kind of change was Senegal." — Fonte Akom (31:25)

"...we, as a collective...have failed to build on this, so we institutionalize a reconnection between those who are governed and those who are in governing positions. And I think that is what is missing." — Raymond Gilpin (33:05)

6. Africa's Financial Agency: The African Credit Rating Agency

• Background:
  • Credit ratings shape the cost of sovereign borrowing; currently, most African countries are penalized by methodologies that don't account for their realities.
  • About 50% of African countries now middle-income; need for private capital is urgent.
  • Estimated $74 billion in extra cost due to suboptimal ratings for 16 African nations.
• New Developments:
  • African Union launching its own Credit Rating Agency in 2026.
  • Aims: Provide an alternative to Moody’s, Fitch, S&P; methodology tweaks to suit African contexts; strengthen negotiation/data capacity.

"If we could get the credit ratings right, and get African countries working on this, the cost of borrowing will be lowered significantly and countries will be able to invest...without incurring crippling debt." — Raymond Gilpin (43:06)

7. 2026 Outlook: What to Watch

• Fonte Akom:

  • Mediation efforts in conflict resolution, the role of regional/middle actors, and how African states exercise agency in tight global conditions.

• Raymond Gilpin:

  • Creative development financing: leveraging domestic resources and financial institutions.
  • Regional trade as a path to transformative growth.
  • Connecting development financing, security, and governance — breaking down silos for cohesive progress.

"We all agree or there's a growing consensus, in fact, that we'd need to think beyond security interventions to more diplomatic and dialogue interventions." — Fonte Akom (44:48)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On African Agency at Global Tables:
  "We don't just belong around the table, we have agency around the table. And we should exercise this within the G20 or outside the G20." — Raymond Gilpin (13:51)

• On Youth Protests and Systemic Change:
  "When you look at the average age of the police force...sent to repress some of these youth movements, a lot of them are equally part of that youth cohort. Right. So it's worth actually taking a step back and looking at sort of the forced field of actors trying to drive transformation as opposed to those who actually seek to maintain the status quo..." — Fonte Akom (37:11)

Key Timestamps

• [04:15] Fonte Akom on 2025 not being surprising, but marked by anticipation.
• [11:54] Raymond Gilpin’s reflections on the significance of the G20 in South Africa.
• [14:22] Africa’s need for agency and integrated development strategies.
• [18:16] Fonte Akom on navigating Africa's complex geopolitical and security landscape.
• [26:44] Raymond Gilpin: Why GDP isn't enough—digging into distribution, jobs, and fiscal impact.
• [30:07] Fonte Akom on youth movements, challenges in translating protest to political transformation.
• [43:06] Raymond Gilpin: The significance of the African Credit Rating Agency.
• [44:40] Closing perspectives: Top issues to watch in 2026 for mediation, agency, trade, and development finance.

Personal Reflections & Cultural Notes

What are guests hopeful for?

• Raymond: Hopes the digital revolution will bring real solutions for farm management, logistics, and e-governance.
  • Song Recommendation: “Lonely at the Top” by Asake (48:20)
• Fonte: Sees 2026 as a year to seize transformative opportunities in tech, energy, and industry.
  • Song Recommendation: “Easy with Me” by Wizkid (49:20)

Conclusion

This episode offers a nuanced, sober look at the tapestry of challenges and opportunities facing Africa in 2026. The speakers call for deeper analysis beyond surface metrics, more inclusive global engagement, and real investment in agency, youth, and financial innovation. The Into Africa podcast signals its commitment to youth voices, dialogue, and connecting the dots between security, governance, and development.

For a deeper dive, listen to the Youth Roundtable segments in upcoming episodes.