Loading summary
Transcript51 lines
- [00:05]
A
Welcome to Into Africa, a podcast where we explore Africa's geopolitical landscape, its evolving global role, and the challenges and opportunities shaping the continent's future. I'm your host, Oge Onborgu, Senior Fellow.
- [00:20]
B
And Director of the Africa Program at.
- [00:22]
A
The center for Strategic and International Studies.
- [00:26]
B
Foreign.
- [00:33]
A
Welcome to into Africa. 2025 was a defining year for the African continent and US Africa relations. While we saw new leadership emerge in the African Union and the Regional Economic Community, ECOWAS marked a significant milestone by turning 50. We also saw a number of conflicts worsen. The M23 invasion of eastern DRC, the devastating war in Sudan, and the threat of civil war in South Sudan. In the multilateral space, South Africa hosted the G20 summit, which was the first time it took place on African soil. Major elections in Tanzania, Cote d' Ivoire and Cameroon took place with varying degrees of oppression and youth disposition. Discontent in Madagascar, youth protests overthrew their president but were promptly co opted by the military. We also saw a coup in Guinea Bissau and an attempted coup in Benin, both highlighting the continued fragility in West Africa and the Sahel. And as we closed out the year, we saw U.S. airstrikes against ISIS terrorists in Northwest Nigeria in in coordination with the Nigerian government. US Africa relations in 2026 will be shaped by intense geopolitical competition for critical minerals and tech influence, shifting US policy towards trade, challenges to multilateralism, and a push by African countries for economic sovereignty. Throughout the upcoming episodes, we will explore the nexus of people, power and politics. From the evolving security and governance landscape to the rapid pace of demographic shifts, digitization and urbanization, Africa is undergoing a profound emergence as an integral part of the new global order. But moving this transition into true transformation depends on navigating these competing interwoven forces to foster more inclusive, equitable and democratic societies. In this opening episode, we look back at the defining moments of 2025 and look ahead to what 2026 may hold.
- [02:57]
B
So today I sit down with Fonte Akom, the Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies, ISS based in Pretoria, South Africa. I'm also delighted today to be joined by Raymond Gilpin, the Chief Economist and Head of Strategy at the Regional Bureau for Africa at undp. Thank you both for joining us today.
- [03:20]
C
It's a pleasure. Thanks for having us.
- [03:21]
D
Thank you so much.
- [03:23]
B
Thanks. Thanks. It's wonderful. Both of you are our first guest for 2026 and you know, it's already shaping up to be a very exciting year. So let me just dive right into the conversation now and pose the first question to the both of you. As we look back at the exciting year that 2025 was, what developments on the African continent surprised you the most? Were there trends or dynamics last year that became more visible even though they were in the background for a while? And as we look at these developments or as you reflect on the developments on the continent, what surprised you the most about how the US and other major players engaged with different African countries? Fonte, why don't I start with you in this question?
- [04:15]
C
Thank you very much, Oge. Happy New Year to you. Happy New Year to Raymond as well. It's a pleasure to be here and to be the first guest for 2026, 2025, in fact, for an organization like the ISS that monitors governance, peace, security and development issues on the continent, there was not much of a surprise, but there was a lot of anticipation. November 2024 had basically delivered Trump to the presidency in the United States. So there was a lot of expectation as to whether the Trump agenda would basically align with what had been inscribed in Project 2025. So there was a lot of anticipation there. The second is, if you look at the peace and security bucket, the year as well started with some transitional government basically going into permanent mode in Gabon, Chad, there was sort of insecurity after its own transition had already been completed in the year prior as well. We saw the, at the regional level, the consolidation of the fracture within ecowas that was not surprising since it had already been signaled, even if the organization was turning 50 in 2025. And then we were also looking forward in anticipation to the African Union Commission who would be elected and all of that. So I think there was a sense of anticipation ahead, in fact, of the South African presidency of the G20. So at national, regional and continental levels, there was a lot going on, except I think we need to put a marker on the advances that were made by the AFC and M23 in the Eastern DRC in the months of November and December, which basically presaged the takeover of Goma and Bukavu early in the year as well. So I think broadly, not many surprises, but quite a bit of anticipation.
- [06:10]
B
If I can just push you a little bit on that too, as well, thinking about sort of anticipation. So in terms of how the US engaged, I get that point from you, but was there anything surprising on how other major players, especially middle powers, how they engaged with African nations?
- [06:28]
C
Yeah, there was. I would say, first of all, you've got to look at in the peace and security space, the role of actors from the Gulf in the Horn of Africa, which was kind of amplified not just in Sudan, but across the entire region. That was a little surprising, particularly playing a dual role in certain spaces as both mediators and potential spoilers in conflict situations. So I think that one was a little surprising when you scan out more broadly, there was a lot of positioning of other actors like Turkey as well across the continent, rising to the country with the fifth highest number of diplomatic representations in the continent, with a renewed investment in its air travel connections to Africa as well. So in terms of the engagement of new players, that was something that we needed to mark. But again, in a year when the EU and the African Union were marking 25 years since the partnership agreement in Cairo, there was a lot to expect there as well, which was culminated again in the EU AU summit, which took place in Luanda later in the year. So lots of external actors which has not necessarily materialized into some of the kind of pro development, pro democracy and pro peace actions that one would have anticipated on the continent.
- [07:52]
A
Okay, well, we might pick up on.
- [07:53]
B
Some of those themes again as we go through the conversation.
- [07:56]
A
But Raymond, let me turn to you.
- [07:58]
B
Would love to hear your reflections from 2025.
- [08:02]
D
Thank you so much, Oge, and I'm honored to be part of this first podcast for 2026. Looking back on 2025, I think I agree with Fonte, there were not many surprises. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but there's a lot of anticipation. From the development perspective. We saw a lot of countries finally starting to recover from the long term negative effects of COVID which some people call economic scarring. We saw countries growing and a lot of shifts from public sector focus when it comes to economic activity to the private sector. And Africa's private sector at all levels becoming a little bit more robust. We saw on the youth side, like at undp, we have an initiative called Timbuktu, which is rallying Africa's entrepreneurs across the continent and is connected to tertiary educational institutions through UNIPOs. We've seen these grow, we've seen the dynamism, we've seen the private sector acumen increasing. What we haven't seen is a commensurate increase in resource flows to the continent and resource flows not just at the public sector level, but for private sector actors. We've also seen in this context a lot of what you call larger investors, African investors, Dangote and oil refinery in Nigeria. Yes, it's facing quite a few challenges, but yes, also it's moving forward and shining a light on opportunities across the continent. We see the Lobito corridor also looking, going beyond just the usual infrastructure investments and start looking at value chains, regional value chains, and how those could be transformative. And so all of those bode well for the coming years. But a lot of the challenges remain. I think an area where, looking back, you would say we probably could have seen some more movement was the engagement of development partners, who I think should start seeing Africa more as an opportunity, an opportunity for investment, an opportunity for strategic partnerships. Because the numbers tell the story, not just in terms of population, but the growing economy and the uptake of digital infrastructure across the continent. It speaks not just about the continent's potential to contribute to the global economy, but also the continent's potential as a market for manufacturers, goods and services globally. And so one would have liked to see a little bit more from the development partners, identifying these opportunities and not just seeing the continent as somewhere to apply band aids where you have either security or sociopolitical challenges.
- [11:05]
B
So, you know, keeping still on that theme on the economy and the opportunities for Africa, last year, South Africa made history as the first African country to hold the G20 presidency and also to host the G20 summit for the first time on African soil. So I know you also attended the summit. You were there in South Africa. And so, you know, I'd just love to hear your reflections from your participation at the summit. Were there substantive gains that came from that summit or your thoughts on the lack of U.S. participation in the conversations? Do you think it hampered some of the outcomes from the summit? And most importantly, what lessons should African policymakers and other global finance leaders carry forward from the summit discussions?
- [11:54]
D
Thanks. Yes, it was a very significant moment for the African continent, not just for South Africa hosting the MG20. And it also was the end of the first cycle of countries hosting the MG20. A bit of history here. The G20 has its roots in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis in the late 90s. And it was a time when the world's leaders recognized the fact that the G7 alone could not address the financial challenges, that international economic cooperation was necessary. And this is why they expanded the finance ministers from G7 to what has now become the G20. Why this is important for Africa is because Africa's hosting of the G20 came after there had been three previous countries from the Global south hosting Indonesia in 2022, India in 2023, and Brazil in 2024. And this is another significant juncture where globally, it's really, really important to again recognize the importance of international economic cooperation, that the G20 alone could not address a lot of the emerging post Covid, post Ukraine financial crisis issues, and that the entire continent of Africa cannot just be a footnote. It has to be part of the conversation. And I think South Africa did a really good job in elevating the importance of global cooperation, but also the importance of ensuring that we don't have a two or three track world. We really have to have cooperation that lifts all boats so that the developing world, and Africa in particular, is not left behind. There are a number of issues that were tabled very difficult conversations. Around financing, around debt, around the cost of capital, around the management of global natural resources, including issues relating to climate change, the issues relating to trade. All of these are issues that are not going to go away. They're only going to become more complex. And so those who choose to ignore them are not only doing a disservice to international economic cooperation, but they're also limiting the potential of the G20 to be as transformative as it can. I know there's been some talk about going back to the foundation of the G20 and narrowing the focus, but the world has changed significantly evolved since 1999. And so there has to be a recognition of that for Africa. What some of the lessons are is that one is that we don't just belong around the table, we have agency around the table. And we should exercise this within the G20 or outside the G20. Second is that Africa development prospects have to be viewed from within the context of a global economic construct. Africa is not going to address poverty and all the challenges through aid or assistance. It has to be trade and productivity and high value job creation. And that has to be done within a global context and also within an integrated regional economy context. And then the third issue is that solidarity matters. African countries can exercise leadership, but with solidarity, that leadership becomes more robust.
- [15:44]
B
Thank you so much, Raymond. You've laid out really a broad picture here, but I want to push you a little further. You know, you've outlined those three points now, as the next G20 meeting will be held in the US leadership rotates back to the United States. I think one of the things that stood out for many was sort of the lack of U.S. participation or effective U.S. participation in the G20 discussions in South Africa. Do you think that in any way hampered or has hampered the outcomes from the conversations?
- [16:18]
D
I participated mainly in the finance track, not the Sherpa track, not the political side, more on the finance and economic side. And There was US participation in the technical conversations. Yes, the US did not attend the summit, but they were present and they did participate in the technical conversations. But I think that we have to look at the larger picture. One of the great things that South Africa did was a review of the G20 over the last 20 years. And that work did emphasize the importance of solidarity, that this cannot be a fractured endeavor, that we need the entire G20 working together to address the problems. It also emphasized the importance of ensuring that we agree to international norms relating to trade and finance and financing, and also put the climate issues front and center because those are having not just environmental impacts, but also economic ramifications across the world.
- [17:27]
A
Thank you so much.
- [17:27]
B
And I think just to pull on that point, on solidarity. Fonte, when we examine the geopolitical landscape in Africa, a very concerning and complex picture emerges from the wars in Sudan and the drc, some which you've already highlighted to youth movements across the continents that are trying to upset the status quo. We're also seeing Africa's political and security landscape shift rapidly and sometimes it's unpredictable too. As well, there's an intersection of geopolitics, security and economic interest. So moving forward, as we look at 2026, how do we see this big picture? How do we navigate this complexity of geopolitics and security in Africa?
- [18:17]
C
No, thank you very much, Oge. I think I'm going to basically piggyback and build up on some of the messages that came out of the G20 and that Raymond just articulated. The first perspective geopolitically is we've got to emphasize the utility of the rules based system as essential for countries which are sitting on the lower side of the power spectrum globally. Because the rules based system is in fact is meant to constrain the stronger nations and protect relatively weaker nations. And a lot of African countries to exercise their partnership, diversification, exercise autonomy, need for that rules based system not only to be reified but to be actualized in real terms. The second is there is the necessity for the reform of the global system to be thought through very seriously to ensure greater inclusion, better participation, but also shared and differentiated responsibilities. In addressing some of the big issues that Raymond spoke to, from climate to the potential threats caused by digitization and all of those, but also to reap the benefits from the current system. Coming back to the geopolitical question, which zeros in on the role of state and the way they position themselves, what we need to do here is basically disaggregate the African continent, not just by region, but also by country. And what we are seeing emerge as African agency is basically the capacity for states to actually choose their partnerships based on what their interests and their needs are in a global context, where their actions are increasingly constrained by greater powers as well. The second trend that we are likely to see is slightly greater interference, not necessarily to try to either advance or undermine the interest of particular countries, but to serve as spoilers for the major global players. And here I would look to specifically the Sahel, where we're going to see the changing configuration of actors over the next year. Most likely, we have seen sort of a return of U.S. u.S. Interest in the Sahel in a context where the Russian interest is not waning either, and the European interest in the Sahel is not necessarily waning. But you cannot weigh those interests in terms of an imposition of specific patterns, norms and behaviors on those countries, but more as a negotiated positioning of these actors. And that's a clear articulation and presentation of African agency. I think the third issue to take into consideration in this geopolitical set of reconfigurations is to take seriously the question of trade as well industrialization and productivity. All of those are fundamental. African countries have to move up the beneficiation ladder and move beyond the narrative of extractives. And I think we're going to see a lot more reflections about how to make that happen. And those reflections would also likely push into sort of this raising of capital for major infrastructure projects that connect to projects like the Lobito Corridor, but which also look at ways in which you can connect landlocked countries to ocean spaces, which is a key issue in the Horn of Africa, but also connect different spaces of raw materials to emerging spaces of industry on the continent as well. So overall, while there would be greater competition, there is likely an opportunity for some African countries to leverage these competition to basically actualize opportunities.
- [22:06]
B
Let me pull on that a little bit. And I think, Raymond, I'm going to pull you into the conversation because, Fonte, you had made the point about taking seriously the question of trade. And each year, every year, at the beginning of every year, there's always a lot of optimism about Africa's economic trajectory. Yet the outcome often falls short. You know, this year, looking at some of the information that has come out, African economies are expected to grow by 4.4% this year, up from 4.1% last year. So how can analysts, those of us who work in this field, how can we be more grounded and honest when we talk about Africa's economic prospects? You know, what do these numbers, these, you know, the high expectations, the optimism at the beginning of the year, what does it mean for the ordinary everyday person just for the cost of food, for the cost of bread, for a regular person on the street? You know, how should and why should ordinary citizens really take or care about these economic growth projections when for many of them sometimes they do not see the direct impact of these projections on their everyday lives?
- [23:22]
D
You're absolutely right, Oge. There's always this fascination with GDP growth projections and quite often we hear the talking points. 7 out of the 10 fastest growing economies are African. And there's this natural optimism. But last year the UN Secretary General started a working group on beyond GDP to see which other indicators would give us a better sense of what the opportunities and challenges that countries face really are. Yes, African countries are growing and I said earlier there seems to be some recovery from the COVID economic scarring. But when you look at gdp, GDP is just like giving you a sense of the total number of goods and services that were produced in the country and by the country's citizens. It does not tell you how the proceeds of this growth are distributed. It does not tell you how much of this growth actually hits the government's coffers. And let me explain. If you take your average, say cocoa producing and exporting country and you say you have a GDP growth of 3%, but the contracting for the export of those cocoa beans has given the exporter five year tax holiday, the domestic rules and regulations as either weak or porous. And there's a lot of transfer pricing opportunities for the investors. And so in terms of fiscal revenue, the country does not really get that much. That's one dimension. The second dimension is when you look at, let's go to the mining sector now and you say rather than exporting the raw minerals, we do refinery that could increase the revenue four times. Or you say let's do some first stage precursor manufacturing that could increase it about 20 times. So we have to look beyond GDP when we are trying to see what these metrics mean for the ordinary citizens and how they translate into the sort of economic development outcomes that we are looking for. I think that analysts that really have to shed the cloak of what I would call intellectual laziness because to be honest, you can google these things and find them out and not just jump on the bandwagon of higher growth this year. So it's going to be a wonderful year. But ask some of these questions. What does a tax regime look like? How do we make the tax regime, more people friendly, more accountable. How do we ensure that contracting is delivering not just on the financial and returns side of things, but also on the jobs side. That's one thing that we don't take into a lot of consideration. Most of the investment in the continent. When we say, okay, how do we engage local labor market in this value chain? It's more often than not the low productivity, low pay, low skill spectrum that ends up on the continent where, and this is not just mining. If you look at creatives, a lot of the talk about Afrobeats, most of the money is outside the continent. So once again, I think that's something that analysts should be holding our collective feet to the fire and making sure we are not just looking at the headline aggregate gdp, but we are seeing how we can connect that headline aggregate to fiscal, to jobs, to socioeconomic issues. And I think this is how these projections then begin to make sense for the ordinary person who is concerned, as you rightly pointed out, about the cost of bread.
- [27:38]
B
Thank you so much, Raymond. I'm really glad that UNDP is sort of, as you mentioned, hosting this working group looking beyond gdp. I hope we'll hear more about sort of the outcomes from, from that working group this year as we look at these issues. So let me move from that and pull on the question of governance because very often these economic projections, it reflects on how people, citizens view their government. And in 2025, we saw elections take place in countries like Tanzania, Cameroon and Cote d'. Ivoire. And this year we're also going to see a significant number of elections as well happen on the continent in countries like Uganda, where by the time this episode might actually air, the Ugandan elections are on January 15th. So this episode might actually be airing on the same day as those elections. And at this point, for many citizens and those who are looking at the elections in Uganda, we might see election results that will be predictable. Results are predictable at this point. So all these elections we see are happening within a context of rapid urbanization on the continent. When election results, election related protest, when they, they occur, it's often young people, young people that we see taking to the streets who are airing their frustrations about the status quo. In the case of Madagascar, we saw that a lot of the protests that were led by young people were hijacked by the military. So there's always that case where when you see these protests, you see citizens take to the streets. Unfortunately, those protests or their demands or their concerns are usually not translated into accountability. No one is held Accountable, the status quo continues. It's often just business as usual. So how do these youth movements translate into real change? Especially at a time now where we see that funding for democracy strengthening and governance programs are at a historic low. So looking across the continent and looking at the levels of citizen frustration with the status quo that we're seeing, how do we translate or how do we work with citizen groups or organizations, and youth groups in particular, to ensure that their concerns are translated to real accountability within the current global context that we found ourselves in today? Fonte.
- [30:07]
C
Thanks again, Oge. That's a pretty charged question, right? In the current context, I would take a step back and say youth movements are actually transforming the continent on a day to day basis. And that's demonstrated through their resilience in tough spaces and their capacity to actually create and project African voices across the board. When it comes to elections, elections are sort of this brief snapshot. And often the focus is on presidential elections. In fact, while forgetting the municipal, local, legislative elections, which basically build up to those presidential elections and funding for democracy strengthening, if that was supposed to be the measure through which democracy gets delivered on the continent, then we would have had countries with very established democratic systems. However, the question about democracy would have to be one, tailored to specific realities in different contexts across the continent. And second, it would have to be driven locally as well. How does that happen, though, in a context where some systems have actually established themselves over decades? Because that is the key root of the contestation that most youth have. It's about organization, it's about strategy, it's about tactics as well. But it's about playing the long game. And I'm not very optimistic about playing that long game at the moment when the issues of democracy are actually being challenged not just in Africa, but across the world. The second is looking at most countries across the continent. There is almost an imprecation of the political and the security and the economic elites as well, in ways that create gulfs between those who govern and those who are governed. So it translates into this speech about state capture which manifests differently across different spaces as well. So the youth movements that we have seen on specific social issues, nsars fees must fall and others have basically created the kind of conscientization that we could benefit from informing our political systems. Mobilization during presidential elections most often than not, has failed to deliver the kinds of change that most youth movements seek. And in recent memory, I think the only place where the youth have actually reasoned against the status quo and gotten the kind of change that they sought Was Senegal. Right. So it's not a very strong track record for a continent with 54, 55 countries, however you look at it.
- [32:57]
D
If I may. Okay, just very quickly coming on this, I do agree that we really need to analyze, unpack what's happening with the youth movement. But just two quick points. First, youth movements are not new in Africa. I am young enough to remember in the olden days, youth taking to the street and demonstrating. I think what's different now is the speed and the connectivity with which they do it. And this leads to my second point. My second point is that we, as a collective, either international institutions, African governments, development partners, stakeholders, have failed to build on this. So we institutionalize a reconnection between those who are governed and those who are in governing positions. And I think that is what is missing. Because unless and until we do that, we will always have these. Sporadic is not the best word, but I use it anyway. Sporadic youth uprisings, youth led movements to protest and not have a transformative approach to Africa's governance space. Because this is, I think, a crucial, yet usually overlooked aspect.
- [34:22]
B
So if I could push the both of you on that, and I think I see a separate episode coming on here on, on just youth movements and from moving from transition to transformation. Because we find ourselves now on the continent where as I mentioned, with rapid urbanization, with the growing frustration, especially with young people, where sort of policies are not translating into real jobs for, for young people, that this intersection, these things will continue. And so how I almost feel as if people know that there is, there's a problem here, but there's always that push, that disconnect. How do you move to this real transformation? Because with the number of protests that we saw in 2025, and as you rightfully pointed out, Raymond, this isn't new, but just the speed at which things are happening, there is a gap. So how do we move from this? How do we really transform what needs to be done? African governments on the continent and those on the outside too as well, the global community watching and looking at this play out in front of us, I.
- [35:32]
D
Think one immediate thing would be to finance, to support, to promote the integration of these youth movements into political processes. So they are not faceless, leaderless entities, but they are leadership, building leadership, creating opportunities for the continent so that they become more engaged and they become the bridge between policy and practice for the average person. The second thing that needs to be done is that we need to find a way, whether it is using social media or traditional media, to use the youth to Be able to communicate on both sides, communicate policy to those who need to understand it, and communicate where the shoe hurts to those who make the decisions.
- [36:26]
B
Thank you. I think one of the interesting things that we're actually going to be doing with the Into Africa podcast is that we will have an entire segment that will be a Youth Roundtable because we want to, as we have these conversations, we also want to be able to hear directly from young people who are impacted by the current situation, to hear their views and add that, ensure that their voices are included in the conversation. So I'm really excited about the Youth Roundtable aspect that we will incorporate as part of this podcast.
- [37:01]
C
If I may come in. Right. With a degree of realism to the conversation around youth as well. When you look at the average age of the police force or the armed forces sent to repress some of these youth movements, a lot of them are equally part of that youth cohort. Right. So it's worth actually taking a step back and looking at sort of the forced field of actors trying to drive transformation as opposed to those who actually seek to maintain the status quo as well. The second is there is almost a split screen if you look at the capacity to mobilize with technology as well as the capacity for a state to actually shut down, the capacity of youth to mobilize using technology and to using rules as well. So that social and political agenda for transformation is one that necessitates buy in beyond the youth and basically to have an intergenerational conversation and construct that actually drives those processes. And I think it's that degree of realism which basically leads us to the situations that we have seen, whether in guinea, in Cameroon, or in Tanzania, with the elections, where the youth might have come out to express themselves both through protest and through the ballot boxes, but then their position has not been respected. And so just incorporating them into the process has also become part of co optation. So we need to navigate those nuances and I'm sure that your Youth Roundtable would be able to address those issues absolutely and effectively.
- [38:46]
B
Well, thank you so much, Fonte Raymond, I'm going to come back to you on the finance question too. Finance and the economic question, knowing that 2025 was sort of a defining year, was a defining year for credit ratings in Africa as the development finance landscape shifted dramatically. And also there were shifts in discussions on the methodology that was used to assign credit ratings to African countries. So after several years, organizations like yours, like undp, and I know you've been really involved in these conversations, have worked closely on the establishment of an African credit rating agency. That agency is coming online this year. So what is the significance of the African credit rating agency? And perhaps just a little bit of history too as well, for some of our listeners that might not know what the credit rating agency is, why it's important, what are potential challenges or opportunities that you foresee with the agency this year? And how can the US and other potential investors engage with the African credit rating agency?
- [39:59]
D
Thank you so much, Oge. A couple of years ago, UNDP did a defining report that looked at this issue of sovereign credit ratings. Basically, what it means is how do investors view investment opportunities in a particular country? And for many African countries, the main and in some cases only indicator is the country's credit rating. We found that there are lots of reasons why countries do not have ratings that really reflect their potential capacity to repay in the future. For a number of reasons, which I wouldn't go into here, but we decided that we should do some work to better prepare African countries for this exercise, the credit ratings exercise, and also take some time working with the credit ratings agencies so that they're able to reflect Africa's credit ratings a lot better. This matters because increasingly Right now about 50% of African countries are middle income, which means that they don't benefit from the concessional financing that had been, you know, part of their financing equation in the past. They have to borrow from markets for things like infrastructure, technology, et cetera. And when they go to borrow in the capital market or they go to issue bonds to support their financing needs, they end up paying a lot more because their credit ratings are not exactly where they should be. We had an estimate for about 16 countries of $74 billion in losses to those countries. And this is why we view this very, very, very carefully. We looked at a number of options and we've, working with a number of stakeholders and partners, we initiated the Africa Credit Ratings Initiative and which is helping African countries prepare. The African Union has decided to launch an African credit ratings agency which would also be issuing credit ratings and we hope would also be part of the efforts to improve the access to timely and reliable data and also incorporate some of the finer points about the nature of African economies into these conversations so that we have credit ratings that really reflect Africa's potential. And this is why we think the Africa Credit Ratings Agency that the African Union will be helping to stand up is important. Three reasons. One, it gives investors an alternative so they're not just looking at what Moody's, Fitch and S and P are saying, but they have an alternative rating. The second point is that it also provides an opportunity for us to have tweaks to the methodology that more closely reflect African realities. And then the third part is that we hope that this agency would also be part of the effort to better prepare both on the data side and for the negotiation side of credit ratings missions. The hope is that if we could get the credit ratings right and get African countries working on this, the cost of borrowing will be lowered significantly and countries will be able to invest in these important capital expenditures without incurring crippling debt.
- [43:51]
B
We will be watching very closely as the Africa Credit Rating Agency moves forward this year. And congratulations to UNDP and others that worked really hard to stand up this agency. So as we come to a close, we've had a lot that we've had to discuss today. So as we look ahead to 2026, look ahead this year, obviously, as I mentioned, this year has already started off with a lot, so it's going to be quite a busy year. And given your respective areas of expertise, in your opinion, what should our listeners be paying close attention to this year? If you could highlight one point or two points or a few things that you think our listeners should be paying close attention to this year? Fonte, why don't I start with you?
- [44:40]
C
We could talk about some of the conflict on the continent, but I think your listeners should be paying attention to some of the different mediation efforts that are being put in place to address both the conflicts between countries on the continent as well as address some of the needling, violent extremist issues within countries as well, because we all agree or there's a growing consensus, in fact, that we'd need to think beyond security interventions to more diplomatic and dialogue interventions across these spaces. So I think we should look out for those. The second, I think would be to also look at the role of middle actors across the continent and ways in which African American countries increasingly exercise their own agency, particularly in a context where we have just seen what happened in Venezuela, right, The room for maneuvers actually getting a lot more constricted. But through regional economic communities, through the African Union and through bilateral engagement, there is still quite a degree of wiggle room for African states and non state actors.
- [45:52]
B
Thank you, Fonte.
- [45:53]
D
Raymond, thank you. I have three quick things. The first is development financing. These are lean times for global development financing. But I think that we have to look more creatively at Africa's own financial resources, domestic resource mobilization, going beyond just the tax imperative to how do we empower Africa's financial institutions to intermediate on behalf of the continent more effectively. The second thing that we need to look at is trade. Currently, trade does not favor many African countries because it's an asymmetric bargaining ecosystem. But regional trade could really be transformative in Africa this year. As African countries turn to each other, as trading partners, as manufacturing becomes more regional, as services also become regional, I see those as underpinning a lot of growth across the continent and also a lot of development because that's what creates jobs that matter. Then the last thing has to be the human security dynamic, how we connect the dots between development financing and security and governance. These are things that we generally look at in isolation, but we really, really want to see how we could have a more consistent and cohesive approach to these so that we are delivering results, not just unmet expectations.
- [47:29]
B
Thank you both so much. You know, this has been a very, very enlightening conversation for me and just energizing as we start off this year. And so we always like to end the podcast or this episode on a personal note. And Raymond, I know you had referenced Afrobeats, so I'm like, I think Raymond listens to some music, some Afrobeats music here. So we have two questions for the both of you. So what African artist or African song have you been listening to, one that you would sort of recommend for our listeners and artists that they could check out, or song that they could check out by this artist? And what are you hopeful for this year in terms of sort of as you look at the African landscape? So, Raymond, why don't I start with you?
- [48:20]
D
I'm hopeful for the digital revolution to be transformative in the sense that it solves a lot of persistent questions, not just in terms of having new apps, but solving issues like farm management, solving issues like complex logistics, solving issues like E governance. I'm really hopeful that we'll make some progress there. In terms of African songs, there's quite a few, but the one that I've been listening to quite a lot lately is Lonely at the Top by Asake, a Nigerian Afrobeat guy. The lyrics are just, they crack me up. And it's a really good song. Check it out.
- [49:07]
B
Thanks.
- [49:08]
C
Raymond Fonse what I'm hopeful for in 2026 is that we actually have the possibility to seize Africa's transformative potential across different sectors. I think we're going through a transitional moment on the continent. Whether you speak of tech, energy, industry, youth and all of those. And if we can harness the potential in this transformative opportunities, it could be a catalytic space or year on which to build going forward. In terms of music, since the start of the year, I've actually been listening to Easy with Me because it's a collaboration by Wizkid and a few others as well. So Wizkid is my guy for 2026.
- [49:56]
B
I see that both of you are jamming. You have your Afrobeats playlist on point over there. But thank you so much, Raymond and Fante, for joining us for this very first episode for 2026. I think one message that I take away as we move into this new year is a theme that has cut across as you all have spoken, about just the importance of consistency and connecting those dots between development, finance, security and governance to be able to give us that opportunity to seize this moment, to move from where we see Africa's transition, to actually move to real transformation. So I thank you both so much for joining us for this episode. Thank you so much.
- [50:40]
D
Thanks for having us.
- [50:44]
A
Thanks for listening to Into Africa. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe.
- [50:49]
B
Wherever you listen to your podcast, you.
- [50:52]
A
Can find more analysis from the Africa.
- [50:54]
B
Program on our website CSIS.org or find.
- [50:58]
A
Us on social media.
- [50:59]
B
Search for SISAfrica on X, LinkedIn and Instagram.