Podcast Summary: Horn of Africa – Conflict, Power, and New Alliances

Into Africa — CSIS Africa Program | January 29, 2026
Host: Oge Onobogu
Guests: Samira Gaid (Director, Balkis Insights) & Amb. Donald Booth (former US Special Envoy to Sudan & South Sudan)

Overview

This episode explores the volatile geopolitical dynamics of the Horn of Africa, examining internal power struggles, the influence of external actors, and the shifting alliances shaping the region's future. Host Oge Onobogu is joined by security analyst Samira Gaid and Ambassador Donald Booth to unpack the layers behind ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, and the broader region, highlighting how states are adapting, the limitations of international engagement, and the region’s perilous yet pivotal place in today's multipolar world.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Horn of Africa’s Volatility and Agency

• Host Introduction: The Horn is highly significant geopolitically but remains underreported and misunderstood (00:05–02:15).
• Samira Gaid:
  • Regional states are active strategists, not passive victims, recalibrating in response to shifting international interest, economic pressures, and climate change (02:47–06:40).
  • Internal elite survival strategies mix with external competition (Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, Somalia’s centralization, Sudan’s war, Djibouti/Eritrea’s leveraging of geography).
  • “Somalia’s fragmentation is structurally produced.” (05:13)
  • Risk from unmanaged external competition (Gulf, West, China, Russia): “Tensions...between Ethiopia and Eritrea are clear warning that this geopolitical maneuvering could quickly escalate into another interstate conflict.” (06:22)

2. US Foreign Policy Evolution and Present Interests

• Amb. Booth:
  • US policy moved from Cold War logic to post-Soviet support for “new democratic leaders” (Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda), emphasizing stability (07:20–10:37).
  • Support for Sudan’s SPLM arose after the Sudanese regime aligned with terrorists.
  • Current US and external approaches have failed to produce stability. External actors now amplify internal conflicts.
  • “Opportunity seems to be edging out stability as the guiding principle of U.S. engagement in the Horn.” (10:37)

3. Sudan’s Intractable Crisis – Structural and External Drivers

• Amb. Booth:
  • The Sudan conflict is not new: “What is going on today is really a continuation of the civil war that has raged with only minor breaks since Sudan's independence in 1956.” (11:40)
  • Fundamental divisions (Islamist vs. secular, who gets resources/power) defy easy resolution.
  • Outsiders (Gulf, Egypt, Russia) make war more deadly with modern arms; “mediation efforts focused on the armed actors...have failed to secure a ceasefire...because [they] continue to receive external backing.” (14:06)
  • Peace requires both external actors cutting off military support and genuine inclusive Sudanese dialogue.

4. The Stalemate and Rethinking Donor Policy in Somalia

• Samira Gaid:

  • Somalia is “at a defining moment” because “we have now reached the limits of the current donor approach.” (15:41)
  • Two decades of “short-term security assistance” have not built durable stability.
  • “The core problem...is that we have over-invested...in military capacity instead of investing in political legitimacy and political reconciliation.” (17:16)
  • Recommends shift to politically conditioned aid, benchmarking security support on political dialogue and governance reforms (17:40–18:55).
  • Need to move from focusing on central government and army to embracing wider political and security actors—federal units, clan militias—with local legitimacy.
  • “Somalia's security architecture is wider than the federal army.” (18:20)

• Amb. Booth:

  • Somalia needs a decentralized/confederal state, not enforced centralization.
  • “Maybe what's really needed is for Somalis to figure out how they can actually live together in peace...moving away from this notion of the centralized state, I think is going to be key...” (19:48)

• Samira:

  • “There’s been talk that now we need to again sit down and decide what the next step is...clearly a centralized state or a federal state is not working in the current environment.” (21:43)

5. Somaliland’s Push for Recognition and Regional Fallout

• Samira Gaid:
  • Somaliland’s international recognition “is more about the hard realities of power in the Horn.” (23:54)
  • Recognition by Israel gives Hargeysa leverage—“formally validated what Somaliland has been saying for decades, that it's a functional political entity.” (24:20)
  • Mogadishu lacks capacity for external engagement/management; cut with UAE underscores Somalia’s vulnerability and risk of deeper entanglement in regional rivalries.
  • “Just this one recognition does not equal legitimacy. There's been spirited support from the African Union and from the Gulf states...who opposed this unilateral secession and international recognition.” (26:00)
• Amb. Booth:
  • US consideration of recognition impacted by historical, African Union (AU) principles on borders.
  • “Israel’s unilateral recognition has been pretty universally condemned...it really encourages unilateral changes to the colonial borders that Africa inherited.” (27:16)
  • Recognition could aggravate regional competition and complicate US multilateral diplomacy, including Sudan conflict mediation.
  • Connecting regional crises could potentially facilitate broader bargaining.

6. Institutions and the Difficult Role of Multilateralism

• Host/Guests:
  • Efficacy of AU, IGAD questioned as people see them “serving the regimes...in place” rather than the people (31:48).
  • Need for “serious reform” of regional organizations; organizations’ legitimacy is at stake.
• Amb. Booth:
  • Past interventions worked when a regional power wasn’t party to conflict; today, no neutral regional leader exists.
  • Now, ad hoc coalitions like the “Sudan Quad” (US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE) might drive multilateral conflict resolution, though this is more complex.
  • “I think the end result might well look multilateral...but it will not depend on the current existing multilateral institutions.” (34:50)

7. Outlook for the Horn in 2026: Risks and Hope

• Samira Gaid:
  • Pessimistic: Looming elections, intensifying Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions, extremist threats, climate shocks.
  • “For me, I do think that the next year is going to be quite difficult...That to me, signifies a risk in at least the near future.” (35:45)
• Amb. Booth:
  • Qualified optimism: Instability may motivate regional powers toward compromise to safeguard their own economic interests.
  • “I think the Horn of Africa will remain a tinderbox in 2026, but...effective US diplomacy with the Quad and other regional states can...reduce the availability of fuel for the potential fire.” (38:34)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Agency of Regional States

  • “The countries in the Greater Horn are not passive actors...they are actively calibrating their strategies in response to intensified external interest.”
    — Samira Gaid (02:50)

• On US Policy Shift

  • “Opportunity seems to be edging out stability as the guiding principle of U.S. engagement in the Horn.”
    — Amb. Booth (10:37)

• Sudan’s Enduring Dilemma

  • “What is going on today is really a continuation of the civil war that has raged with only minor breaks since Sudan's independence in 1956.”
    — Amb. Booth (11:41)
  • “You have Islamists...and then you have a group like the Sudan People's Liberation Movement north, who believe...Sudan must be a secular state...”
    — Amb. Booth (13:04)

• Limits of Security-First Aid in Somalia

  • “The core problem...is that we have over-invested...in military capacity instead of investing in political legitimacy and political reconciliation.”
    — Samira Gaid (17:16)
  • “Maybe what's really needed is for Somalis to figure out how they can actually live together in peace.”
    — Amb. Booth (19:48)

• On Border Recognition and Precedent

  • “Israel’s unilateral recognition...encourages unilateral changes to the colonial borders that Africa inherited...”
    — Amb. Booth (27:16)

• Outlook and Hope

  • “I do think that the youth offer a great hope...they are more interconnected...changing how they think about conflict, how they think about clan...”
    — Samira Gaid (40:05)
  • “I find what glimmers of hope there are, frankly, in the desires of the people of the Horn of Africa, but especially the women and youth...for peace, freedom and justice.”
    — Amb. Booth (41:15)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• Introduction and Guest Intros: 00:05–02:18
• Regional Adaptation Dynamics (Samira): 02:47–06:47
• US Policy Evolution (Booth): 07:20–10:42
• Sudan Crisis Analysis (Booth): 11:34–14:58
• Somalia: Donor Policy and State Structure: 15:41–22:39
• Somaliland Recognition Crisis: 22:39–30:03
• Institutions & Multilateralism: 30:03–34:46
• 2026 Outlook (Pessimist vs. Qualified Optimist): 35:29–39:11
• Endnote: Regional Hope & Music Recommendations: 39:58–42:14

Tone and Takeaways

The episode provides a grounded, occasionally somber but not fatalistic tone—recognizing both structural limits and emerging dangers, while holding out cautious hope. Both guests emphasize complexity, reject simplistic narratives, and underscore the region’s need for self-determined solutions, inclusive dialogue, and smarter international support. Generational change—embodied by the region’s youth—emerges as a bright spot amid stark political realities.

Music Recommendations from the Guests

• Samira Gaid: Aya Nakamura (French-Malian pop artist)
• Amb. Booth: Mulatu Astatke (father of Ethio-jazz), Girma Yifrashewa (Ethiopian pianist)

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