PODCAST SUMMARY

Into Africa (CSIS)

Episode: "The development sector has changed irrevocably. What comes next?"

Host: Katherine N. Suzuki (substituting for Mvemba Phezo Dizolele)
Guests:

• Blair Glencorse (Co-CEO, Accountability Lab)
• Sherry-Lee Erasmus (Co-CEO & Chief Learning and Agility Officer, Accountability Lab)
  Date: June 12, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode critically examines the seismic changes in the international aid and development sector, particularly in the wake of widespread US foreign aid freezes. Host Katherine Suzuki, with guests Blair Glencorse and Sherry-Lee Erasmus of Accountability Lab, delves into the findings from the Global Aid Freeze Tracker's May 2025 survey. The discussion tracks not just the numbers, but the profound human impact—the shrinking space for civil society, lost jobs and trust, organizational closures, and key questions about what a "post-aid" future will require, especially for African countries.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Survey Background & Context

(00:01–04:09)

• The Global Aid Freeze Tracker, created by Accountability Lab and Humentum, is monitoring the effects of the halted US foreign assistance (since January) on civil society and development organizations.
• May 2025 survey: 260 organizations (split between for-profit and nonprofit), primarily implemented in the US, Kenya, Nigeria, DRC, and Uganda, but many operate in multiple countries.
• Key thematic sectors: health, gender, governance, climate, human rights, economic development, education, youth.

2. The Bleak Data on Organizational Viability

(04:09–06:15)

• Many organizations are facing imminent financial precarity due to the aid freeze:
  • 21% have just one month of financial resources left.
  • ~50% have three months or less of operating runway.
  • ~35% are considering restructuring or merging; 19% are open to discussions.
  • 55% have already laid off staff; additional 15% considering layoffs.
  • 30% of organizations have cut 80% or more of their workforce.
  • 33% are considering closing offices; 33% say their entire organizations are at risk of total closure.
• Quote (Blair, 05:28): "We have to look at this as a very clear signal that the field is shrinking, that there are going to be extreme difficulties for many civil society and social sector organizations."

3. Human Impact Beyond the Numbers

(06:15–09:46)

• The data cannot capture the full scale of suffering:
  • Essential services like TB and HIV medication inaccessible—risking deadly, irreversible consequences.
  • Food rationing in refugee camps leading to malnutrition and, ultimately, death.
  • "This is a life and death situation... We look at it in terms of numbers, but there are humans behind these numbers. And it's a generational crisis, really, in many countries." (Sherry, 08:25)
  • Effects ripple to employment in the aid sector—both in affected countries and places like Washington, DC, with a growing "diaspora" of development professionals.
  • Vilification and stigma now attached to development work, damaging professional identity and morale.

4. Which Sectors & Countries Are Hit the Hardest?

(09:46–11:30)

• Sectors most impacted: health, gender, education, youth, plus climate, human rights, governance, and anti-corruption.
• Media sector particularly vulnerable, often under-discussed but heavily reliant on aid.
• African countries most affected: Kenya, Nigeria, DRC, Uganda, Ghana—and more broadly, data indicates most impacted nations are in Africa.
  • "ID Insight... looked at all this... The top 10 countries were also all African countries, starting with CAR, all the way down to Sierra Leone and Uganda." (Blair, 10:57)

5. The Vilification of the Development Sector

(11:30–15:54)

• Growing narrative that development organizations are corrupt or mismanaging funds.
  • "There is this narrative around certain development agencies harboring corruption... which then creates a narrative that vilifies that particular body of work." (Sherry, 12:00)
  • "Even in applying for jobs, [people] are being told to take their development work off of their resume because it's actually counting against them." (Sherry, 12:34)
• This narrative reduces professional dignity and increases direct risks for practitioners globally.
• The "brittle trust" once placed in partners—especially US agencies—has been shattered, possibly irreparably: "Trust has now been broken in ways that’s going to be hard to rebuild.” (Sherry, 15:26)

6. The State of the Aid Sector: An Era of Irreversible Change

(15:54–20:09)

• The sector is experiencing a fundamental, perhaps permanent transformation.
  • Official Development Assistance (ODA) to Africa has been declining for over a decade; recent cuts have accelerated a pre-existing trend. ODA to Africa fell 11% in the last ten years.
  • Donor governments (e.g., UK, France, Netherlands) are slashing budgets; very few increases (e.g., Ireland, Spain, Denmark—but small scale).
  • Philanthropy, while helpful, cannot fill the aid gap: ODA to Africa last year was $42B; philanthropic flows reached only $4B.
• "ODA, official ODA from donor governments to Africa last year was about $42 billion. And philanthropic flows last year were about 10% of that—4 billion. So we're talking 90% here of funding that somehow needs to be covered as things are cut." (Blair, 17:50)
• Some foundations (e.g., Gates Foundation) are increasing their interventions, but scale is insufficient.

Four Areas to Address Going Forward (per Blair, 17:58–19:53):

1. Debt Relief: Africa’s external debt has nearly doubled in a decade; need for restructuring and relief.
2. Taxation: Africa’s tax-to-GDP ratio is lowest worldwide (~16%); potential for progressive taxation to fund services.
   • “If there was a tax … that started taxing assets at over 5 million, it could yield about $12 billion annually. That’s a lot of schools, a lot of hospitals, a lot of roads that could be funded." (Blair, 18:48)
3. Illicit Financial Flows: $90B exits Africa illicitly each year—more than double the current aid; recapture would transform financing.
4. Mobilizing Local Resources: African sovereign wealth funds ($130B), pension funds ($220B) mostly invested outside Africa, plus $90B in remittances—need public policy shift for in-continent development investments.

• "Money isn’t really the issue. It’s about how we mobilize it, how we capture it, and deploy it in ways that support development... Aid is needed to put in place the mechanisms and the rules and the policies to allow for all of this—but it’s going to be a different kind of aid." (Blair, 19:43)

7. Rethinking, Reforming, and Localizing the Sector

(20:09–27:27)

• Sherry emphasizes a watershed moment, both difficult and full of opportunity: "We’re at such a watershed moment that is both incredibly difficult and daunting, but that also holds opportunities." (20:22)
• Three priorities: Reimagine, Resource, Rebuild.
• Warns against siloed responses; calls for collective strategies between Global North and South actors.
• Movement mindset: Integrate/sharing functions (e.g., communications, monitoring, evaluation) across organizations to maximize shrinking resources.
  • "What about sharing communications functionality, business development and even monitoring and evaluation?... There’s no reason why we couldn’t integrate more all in a movement way to share these resources across." (Sherry, 22:28)
• Alternative revenue models: Need for philanthropic "catalytic funding" to buy time and expertise for organizations to remodel and find new paths.
  • Aid agencies rarely have the spare capacity to bring in transformation experts, unlike private sector actors.
• Government Accountability: As direct aid evaporates, domestic budgets must shift towards service provision—and citizens/civil society must demand transparency and accountability.
  • "For a very long time, many services... have been, for a variety of reasons, delivered through foreign assistance... We ought to hold our governments accountable for amending budgets and finding ways where they can to make those services available." (Sherry, 25:46)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Blair (05:28): "We have to look at this as a very clear signal that the field is shrinking, that there are going to be extreme difficulties for many civil society and social sector organizations."
• Sherry (08:25): "This is a life and death situation... We look at it in terms of numbers, but there are humans behind these numbers. And it’s a generational crisis really in many countries."
• Blair (10:57): "The top 10 countries were also all African countries, starting with CAR, all the way down to Sierra Leone and Uganda."
• Sherry (12:34): "Even in applying for jobs, [people] are being told to take their development work off of their resume because it’s actually counting against them."
• Sherry (15:26): "Trust has now been broken in ways that’s going to be hard to rebuild."
• Blair (17:50): "ODA, official ODA from donor governments to Africa last year was about $42 billion. And philanthropic flows last year were about 10% of that—4 billion. So we're talking 90% here of funding that somehow needs to be covered as things are cut."
• Blair (18:48): "If there was a tax … that started taxing assets at over 5 million, it could yield about $12 billion annually. That’s a lot of schools, a lot of hospitals, a lot of roads that could be funded."
• Sherry (20:22): "We’re at such a watershed moment that is both incredibly difficult and daunting, but that also holds opportunities."
• Sherry (22:28): "What about sharing communications functionality, business development and even monitoring and evaluation?... There’s no reason why we couldn’t integrate more all in a movement way to share these resources across."

Important Timestamps

• 00:01 — Introduction; overview of survey and episode topic
• 02:15 — Survey methodology and respondent demographics (Sherry)
• 04:18 — Main financial and operational findings (Blair)
• 06:19 — Human impact and the generational consequences (Sherry)
• 09:57 — Sectors and countries most affected (Blair)
• 11:51 — Vilification of aid and development sector (Sherry)
• 15:54 — The state of the sector, possibilities for the future (Blair)
• 20:22 — Opportunities for reimagining the sector (Sherry)
• 27:27 — Looking ahead: accountability, transparency, and closing remarks

Tone and Takeaways

The episode is frank, sobering, and thoughtful. Both guests acknowledge daunting statistics and stories, but also advocate for innovation, resilience, and collective action as the only way forward.

The future of development aid and civil society work is uncertain. However, Blair and Sherry stress that this "aid reckoning" could be the inflection point for genuine sectoral reform—giving primacy to sustainable domestic funding, regional solidarity, and the opportunity to rebuild trust through local accountability and cooperation.