Peter Walker is Head of Insights at Carta, where he tracks some of the most important data shaping venture right now. In this conversation, we talked about hot seed deals, quitting, liquidity, and what the latest market data really says about valuations, exits, and the changing structure of venture.

Peter explains why the most expensive seed deals may be more rational than they look, especially if your goal is to back the tiny handful of companies that could become massive outcomes. But he also makes clear that the real challenge is not just getting into great companies. It is figuring out how those companies actually generate liquidity in a world where IPOs are rarer, secondaries are concentrated in a few names, and many private companies are staying private longer than investors once expected.

We also discuss how the venture market is splitting in two. At the very top, consensus companies in the “golden circle” are attracting extraordinary prices and attention. Outside that inner ring, founders are still facing a much tougher environment, where expectations are high and capital is harder to win. Peter shares why common fundraising heuristics like a single ARR benchmark for raising a Series A are often misleading, why growth and momentum matter more than any fixed revenue number, and how AI is making revenue quality harder to judge than it used to be.

A big theme in the episode is what venture gets wrong. Peter talks about why some founders probably should quit sooner, why solo founders may deserve more credit than they often get, and why concentration is not the only way to build a great fund. It is a conversation about market structure, incentives, and how investors and founders can think more clearly in a venture environment that is getting more extreme at both ends.

Investing in Startups is produced by Seaplane Ventures and hosted by Joe Magyer.