Podcast
Investors' Insights and Market Updates
Hosted by Fi Plan Partners · EN
Investing insights on the markets and economy providing strategies designed to grow your wealth
54episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
The Sequence of Returns Risk
4d ago00:02:34Tap to summarizeMost investors focus on average market returns, but in retirement, the sequence of those returns can make a significant difference. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Trey Booth explains sequence of returns risk and demonstrates how two retirees with the same average returns can end up with dramatically different outcomes based solely on when market gains and losses occur. Learn how diversification, maintaining short-term cash needs, and a thoughtful withdrawal strategy can help reduce this often-overlooked retirement risk. Watch to learn more. Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post The Sequence of Returns Risk first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Transcribe →Feeling Richer?
1w ago00:04:58Tap to summarizeBonds Continue to Demonstrate Their Value While much of the attention has centered on stocks, the bond market has quietly delivered strong performance over the past two years. Bonds remain an important component of diversified portfolios because they help reduce risk, generate income, and provide stability during periods of market uncertainty. Since October 19, 2023, the total returns across the 11 major bond indices have been notably strong. That date marked the recent peak in the 10-year Treasury yield, which closed at 4.99%. Since then, Treasury yields have fluctuated significantly, falling to 3.62% in September 2024 before climbing back to approximately 4.5% in July 2026. Even with those fluctuations, today’s yield remains below the 2023 peak. Because bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of yields, declining benchmark yields have supported positive returns across much of the fixed income market. Several bond sectors have produced returns exceeding 20% during this period. Looking ahead, inflation and Federal Reserve policy will continue to play an important role in bond performance. Monitoring these factors will help determine how bonds continue to support clients’ long-term investment strategies. Inflation Shows Encouraging Signs of Normalization The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report provided an encouraging surprise. Monthly CPI declined by 0.4%, meaning prices actually fell during the month. This is significant because inflation discussions often focus on prices increasing at a slower rate rather than prices declining outright. Typically, inflation “coming down” simply means prices are still rising, but at a slower pace. This latest report was different. Consumers experienced actual price declines, something not seen on a monthly basis since the COVID era and a relatively rare occurrence over the past decade. Much of the decline was driven by lower gasoline prices following easing energy markets after geopolitical tensions earlier in the summer. Although oil prices have recently moved higher again, they remain well below previous peaks, suggesting that the recent decline may represent what a more normalized energy environment could look like. Perhaps even more encouraging was the strength of consumer spending. Retail sales increased by 0.22% during the same month that prices declined. When adjusted for lower inflation, consumers effectively purchased approximately 0.62% more goods and services than the previous month. This is an important distinction. During periods of rising energy prices, households often spend more filling their gas tanks while reducing purchases elsewhere, a phenomenon economists call demand destruction. Instead, the latest data indicates consumers continued spending across the broader economy while benefiting from lower prices. Although one report does not establish a long-term trend, the combination of falling prices and healthy consumer demand offers a positive glimpse into how the economy could perform as inflation continues to moderate. The outlook remains favorable for consumers, financial markets, and interest rates if this broader normalization continues. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Feeling Richer? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Transcribe →Analyzing Individual Stocks
2w ago00:04:43Tap to summarizeWith thousands of publicly traded companies to choose from, identifying quality investment opportunities requires more than simply following headlines or popular trends. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Bobby Norman shares the structured approach our Portfolio Strategies Team uses to evaluate individual stocks, from understanding a company’s business model and financial health to assessing valuation, leadership, industry trends, and potential risks. Whether you’re an experienced investor or simply curious about how investment decisions are made, this behind-the-scenes look offers valuable insight into our disciplined investment process. Watch to learn more. Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Analyzing Individual Stocks first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Transcribe →A Week Worth Watching
2w ago00:04:58Tap to summarizeInterest Rates Remain the Market’s Focus Interest rates continue to be one of the most important indicators for investors because of their broad impact on the economy. The 10-year Treasury yield influences mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and overall financial conditions, making it a key measure to watch. After easing briefly, the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back above 4.5%, reflecting renewed concerns following escalating conflict in the Middle East. Rising interest rates can signal worries about government debt issuance while also increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This week’s inflation reports will play an important role in determining where interest rates may head next. Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will provide insight into inflation trends and price pressures. With oil prices having declined recently, expectations are building that the CPI could show not only slower inflation but potentially a negative monthly reading. If that occurs, it would represent a meaningful shift in the inflation outlook. Markets will also be closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh as he delivers his required testimony before Congress. Since taking office, Warsh has largely avoided signaling future monetary policy, preferring to let the Federal Reserve’s actions speak for themselves. His remarks before lawmakers may offer investors valuable insight into the Fed’s current thinking and could have a significant impact on interest rate expectations. Because interest rates influence borrowing, spending, business investment, and equity valuations, developments this week have the potential to affect markets well beyond the bond market alone. Earnings Season Takes the Spotlight While geopolitical events continue to create uncertainty, corporate earnings remain one of the strongest drivers of long-term stock market performance. As earnings season begins, investors will gain a clearer picture of how American businesses are performing in today’s economic environment. Current estimates for the S&P 500 remain encouraging. Analysts project earnings growth of approximately 25% in 2026 and 17.4% in 2027. Even more notably, seven of the index’s eleven sectors are expected to generate earnings growth exceeding 10% in 2026. Revenue growth projections also remain positive, with estimates of 10.4% for 2026 and 7.6% for 2027. These forecasts suggest that companies continue to improve profitability through a combination of stronger sales and increased operational efficiency. Although estimates will ultimately be tested against actual results, improving corporate earnings have historically supported higher equity prices. In an environment where investors remain focused on inflation, interest rates, and Federal Reserve policy, strong earnings growth could provide an important catalyst for continued market strength. As the week unfolds, investors will be watching inflation reports, Federal Reserve commentary, and early earnings announcements closely. Together, these developments will help shape expectations for the economy, interest rates, and the direction of financial markets in the months ahead. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post A Week Worth Watching first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Transcribe →Reports Are In
3w ago00:04:58Tap to summarizeEmployment Remains on Solid Ground Employment continues to be one of the most important indicators for both the economy and the stock market. A healthy labor market means more people are earning income, saving, investing, and contributing to overall economic growth. Those factors typically create greater demand for investment assets and provide support for stock prices. Conversely, rising unemployment often leads consumers to spend savings rather than invest, placing pressure on financial markets. The Federal Reserve closely monitors employment data when making interest rate decisions, making each monthly jobs report an important release for investors. However, it’s important to understand that the headline jobs report is based largely on surveys, making it what economists refer to as “soft data.” Because it relies on estimates from survey respondents rather than complete reporting, the data is often revised in subsequent months. The latest report was encouraging overall. More jobs were created than lost, the unemployment rate declined, and wage growth remained healthy at 3.5% year over year. While average hours worked declined slightly, rising wages combined with fewer hours worked still represents a positive development for workers. One surprising detail within the report was a decline in leisure and hospitality employment. Given the increased tourism and temporary hiring associated with the World Cup, many economists believe this portion of the report may ultimately be revised higher. To gain a clearer picture of labor market conditions, it helps to compare the survey-based data with “hard data,” such as initial unemployment claims. Unlike survey estimates, unemployment claims are based on actual filings submitted through state unemployment offices and are generally considered more reliable. Initial jobless claims have remained relatively stable throughout the year, while continuing unemployment claims have gradually declined. Together, these indicators reinforce the view that the labor market remains stable, not overheating, but not weakening either. A stable employment environment supports continued wage growth, consumer spending, savings, and investment activity. Those trends create a constructive backdrop for financial markets heading into the second half of the year. Corporate Earnings Will Drive the Next Phase of the Market Strong corporate earnings have been one of the primary drivers behind the stock market’s performance this year, and they are expected to remain a major theme throughout the remainder of the year. Corporate America has consistently exceeded expectations, helping fuel market gains. As a result, analysts have steadily raised earnings forecasts throughout the year. Earnings per share (EPS), a measure of how much profit a company generates for each outstanding share of stock, has seen meaningful upward revisions after remaining relatively flat throughout much of 2025. While this reflects confidence in the strength of American businesses, it also raises the bar. Investors will be watching closely to see whether companies can continue delivering results that justify today’s elevated expectations. Another important metric to monitor is operating margins. Markets are currently pricing in record profit margins over the coming year. If companies continue operating efficiently while maintaining strong profitability, stocks could continue benefiting from solid earnings growth. However, if expectations prove too optimistic, investors should be prepared for periods of increased market volatility. With midterm election uncertainty also entering the picture, earnings season will likely play an even larger role in determining market direction during the second half of the year. Why Gas Prices Haven’t Fallen as Fast as Oil Prices Although oil prices have retreated following the recent conflict in the Middle East, many drivers have noticed that gasoline prices have not fallen nearly as quickly. The explanation lies in how gasoline is produced, distributed, and taxed. The United States consumes more than 130 billion gallons of gasoline each year—more than any other country in the world. While crude oil prices rose sharply during the conflict and have since moved lower, retail gasoline prices typically respond more slowly. Gasoline is a refined petroleum product, meaning the cost of crude oil represents only one portion of the final price consumers pay at the pump. Refining costs, transportation expenses, distribution, and taxes all contribute to the total cost per gallon. As crude oil prices climbed, gasoline prices gradually followed. Now that crude prices have declined to levels closer to where they were earlier this year, gasoline prices are expected to follow, but historically, they tend to lag. Assuming geopolitical tensions do not escalate again, motorists could begin seeing more relief as the summer progresses and into the fall. Regional price differences also illustrate how much additional costs affect gasoline prices. States throughout the South and Midwest generally enjoy some of the nation’s lowest gasoline prices due to their proximity to Gulf Coast refineries. Meanwhile, states such as California, Washington, Hawaii, Nevada, and Oregon typically experience significantly higher prices. While crude oil costs are essentially the same nationwide, higher state taxes, increased transportation expenses, and greater distribution costs contribute to substantially higher prices at the pump. In Hawaii, for example, distribution costs alone exceed the cost of refining the gasoline. Understanding these components helps explain why gasoline prices often remain elevated even after oil prices begin to fall. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Reports Are In first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Transcribe →Market Fireworks
4w ago00:04:58Tap to summarizeEmployment Remains a Key Market Driver Although the week is shortened by the holiday, one of the most important economic reports of the month arrives before the weekend. The latest payroll report provides an updated snapshot of the labor market, one of the Federal Reserve’s primary measures of economic health. Because the Fed’s dual mandate is to promote maximum employment while maintaining stable inflation, employment data plays a significant role in shaping monetary policy decisions. Recent jobs reports have been stronger than many expected, making this week’s release especially important as investors look for signs that labor market strength is either continuing or beginning to fade. Employment trends also have a direct impact on the stock market. A healthy labor market supports wage growth, consumer spending, retirement contributions, and overall investment activity, all of which help create a favorable environment for stocks. Conversely, rising unemployment can reduce savings and investment while slowing economic growth. Investors will also be paying close attention to wage growth, as continued increases could indicate that the economy remains resilient even as inflation shows signs of easing. Dividend Growth Has Historically Outpaced Inflation Inflation remains one of the biggest concerns for investors, creating uncertainty around interest rates and future market performance. While inflation reduces purchasing power over time, dividend-paying stocks have historically provided one of the most effective ways to combat its long-term effects. In fact, dividends have accounted for approximately 37.2% of the S&P 500’s total return since 1928, highlighting their significant contribution to long-term investment performance. The relationship between dividends and inflation becomes even more compelling over longer periods. From the end of 1979 through the end of last year, dividends paid per share by companies in the S&P 500 increased at a compound annual growth rate of 5.88%, while inflation averaged 3.19% annually. This sustained growth has allowed dividend income to outpace inflation over time, helping investors preserve purchasing power while generating meaningful long-term returns. History Points to a Seasonal Summer Slowdown Seasonality also provides valuable context as markets move into the second half of the year. Historically, the period from late June through August tends to be one of the quieter stretches for stocks. Trading volumes often decline as investors take vacations and corporate news slows, creating what is commonly known as the “dog days of summer.” During this period, markets have historically shown relatively little separation between stronger and weaker years. That pattern typically begins to change after Labor Day. Historical data shows that markets with positive first-half performance have often continued that momentum through year-end, while markets that struggled during the first six months have frequently remained under pressure. With the market currently in the stronger historical category, the seasonal outlook remains encouraging. While history never guarantees future results, these long-term trends provide useful perspective as investors prepare for the months ahead. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Market Fireworks first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Transcribe →The Global Impact of U.S. LNG Exports
Jun 2500:03:42Tap to summarizeFor decades, the United States relied on imported natural gas, but a surge in domestic production has transformed the country into the world’s leading exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Ashley Page explores how LNG exports are strengthening global energy security, reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, and helping limit the economic impact of geopolitical conflicts. Understanding this shift may provide valuable insight into one of the most important forces influencing global markets and economic stability today. Watch to learn more. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.The post The Global Impact of U.S. LNG Exports first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Transcribe →Honeymoon with the Fed
Jun 2200:04:58Tap to summarizeEarnings Continue to Lead the Way June is traditionally known as wedding season, and in many ways the market’s relationship with the Federal Reserve feels a bit like a honeymoon period. A new Federal Reserve Chairman has taken the helm, corporate earnings remain strong, and investors continue to push markets higher despite several reasons for caution. As the second half of 2026 approaches, the question becomes whether this favorable environment can continue or whether the market will soon face its first meaningful test under new leadership at the Federal Reserve. One of the more surprising developments this year has been the resilience of the stock market during a midterm election cycle. Historically, volatility tends to increase as midterm elections draw closer, often creating periods of uncertainty for investors. Yet 2026 has largely defied that pattern. The S&P 500 has continued to outperform historical midterm-year averages, supported by strong corporate earnings and ongoing investment in artificial intelligence. Corporate America has delivered results that have largely justified higher equity valuations. Earnings growth has remained healthy, investor confidence has held firm, and market momentum has continued despite concerns surrounding inflation, interest rates, and the political landscape. For now, earnings remain the dominant story. While markets have focused on earnings, political developments are beginning to move into view. Historically, markets have often performed best when political power is divided in Washington. As attention gradually shifts toward the November midterm elections, investors will be watching closely to see whether election outcomes alter expectations for fiscal policy, regulation, or economic growth. Election years often introduce additional uncertainty into the market, but they can also create opportunities for investors who remain focused on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term headlines. A New Direction at the Federal Reserve The first meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh offered an early glimpse into what may become a significantly different approach to monetary policy communication. Rather than lengthy statements designed to guide market expectations, the new chairman signaled a preference for brevity and restraint. The philosophy appears straightforward: markets should inform Federal Reserve policy decisions, not the other way around. That approach stands in contrast to the communication strategies that became common following the financial crisis, when Federal Reserve officials frequently used detailed guidance to calm markets and shape expectations. Today’s environment is far different. Economic growth remains intact, unemployment remains relatively healthy, and while inflation remains above ideal levels, it has shown signs of moderation. Warsh has also taken a measured approach to institutional change. Rather than immediately implementing major reforms, the Federal Reserve has begun reviewing several areas of operation through dedicated committees. Those reviews range from communication practices to broader questions surrounding balance sheet management. The process reflects an understanding that meaningful change within a century-old institution requires deliberation rather than disruption. While investors are eager to understand how the new chairman will shape policy, the early signs suggest a thoughtful and methodical approach rather than sweeping change. History reminds investors that honeymoon periods rarely last forever. Few Federal Reserve Chairmen understood that reality better than Alan Greenspan, whose passing this week marks the end of a remarkable chapter in financial history. Greenspan assumed leadership of the Federal Reserve in 1987 and within months faced one of the most significant market crashes in modern history. The lesson is not that turmoil is imminent, but rather that markets often determine when periods of calm come to an end. The challenges facing today’s Federal Reserve are different, but the principle remains the same: economic conditions, market sentiment, and unexpected events often shape the environment more than any single policymaker can control. Today, favorable earnings, improving inflation trends, and steady economic conditions have provided the new Federal Reserve Chairman with an advantageous starting point. Yet challenges remain. Inflation has not fully disappeared, election uncertainty is approaching, and markets continue to navigate an environment shaped by rapidly evolving technology, global economic shifts, and changing monetary policy. For now, the honeymoon continues. Whether it lasts through year-end may depend less on the Federal Reserve itself and more on how investors respond to the economic and political developments that lie ahead. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Honeymoon with the Fed first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Transcribe →Deal or No Deal?
Jun 1500:04:58Tap to summarizeA Critical Week for Global Markets and the Federal Reserve Markets entered the week focused on two major developments: ongoing diplomatic discussions involving the United States and Iran, and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. Reports of progress toward a potential agreement between the United States and Iran have been welcomed by investors. News of a possible deal helped push oil prices lower and contributed to a positive response in equity markets. However, uncertainty remains, and investors should exercise caution until details are finalized and the broader implications become clearer. The decline in oil prices has also influenced interest rates, which moved lower as markets assessed the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions. While investors have responded favorably, recent history serves as a reminder that negotiations can shift quickly, and outcomes are never guaranteed until agreements are officially completed. Domestically, attention is centered on the Federal Reserve’s meeting under the leadership of Chairman Kevin Warsh. This marks his first meeting and press conference as Fed Chair, creating significant interest around how he intends to communicate monetary policy moving forward. Warsh has previously expressed concerns about excessive forward guidance, arguing that central banks should avoid becoming overly committed to future projections. Instead, he has advocated for a greater emphasis on current economic data when making policy decisions. Investors will be watching closely to see whether he introduces a more restrained communication style or gradually transitions the Fed toward a quieter approach. Another area of focus will be the relationship between the chairman and other members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). While the chair plays an influential role, policy decisions are made collectively. Any signs of disagreement among committee members could offer valuable insight into future policy direction. With employment remaining strong and inflation continuing to present challenges, the Federal Reserve’s comments on inflation trends, geopolitical developments, and economic growth will be particularly important for markets. Inflation Remains a Key Concern Inflation remains one of the most closely watched economic indicators, and recent data suggests price pressures continue to persist. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in at 4.2%, higher than many economists had anticipated. While energy prices, particularly oil, have likely contributed to the increase, inflation remains elevated relative to the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. Beyond the traditional CPI measure, another useful perspective comes from what Strategas Research Partners refers to as the “Common Man CPI.” This proprietary measure focuses specifically on essential household expenses, including food, energy, shelter, insurance, and children’s clothing. By emphasizing necessities rather than the broader basket of goods used in traditional inflation calculations, it attempts to better reflect the inflation experienced by everyday consumers. According to this measure, inflation currently stands at 4.6%, noticeably higher than the headline CPI reading. Since mid-2020, prices within the Common Man CPI have increased approximately 32%, compared to roughly 30% for headline CPI. The challenge for consumers is that wage growth has not fully kept pace. While wages have risen approximately 27.5% over the same period, inflation has exceeded those gains, creating ongoing pressure on household budgets. As policymakers evaluate future interest rate decisions, an important question remains: Are current inflation pressures temporary, particularly those tied to energy prices, or do they represent a more persistent trend? The answer will play a significant role in shaping future Federal Reserve actions. CEO Confidence and Consumer Strength Support the Outlook While inflation and global uncertainty remain concerns, several indicators continue to point toward resilience within the broader economy. One closely monitored measure is CEO confidence, which has improved in recent weeks. This indicator reflects how corporate leaders view economic conditions over the next 12 months and can provide valuable insight into future business investment and hiring decisions. Higher CEO confidence often translates into increased capital spending, stronger workforce expansion, and improved earnings expectations. Since corporate earnings remain one of the primary drivers of stock market performance, rising confidence among business leaders is generally viewed as a positive signal for future growth. Consumer spending has also remained remarkably strong despite elevated inflation. Consumers continue to play a critical role in supporting economic growth, and spending trends have remained resilient even as households navigate higher prices. Taken together, improving CEO confidence and continued consumer strength provides a constructive backdrop for both the economy and financial markets as the year progresses. Investors should continue monitoring developments in the Middle East, Federal Reserve policy decisions, inflation trends, business confidence, and consumer spending. Each of these factors has the potential to influence markets in the months ahead, making it important to stay informed and maintain a long-term perspective amid ongoing uncertainty. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Deal or No Deal? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Transcribe →The Fed’s Influence on the Markets
Jun 800:04:58Tap to summarizeMarket Strength Remains Concentrated One of the most important developments in the market this year has been the concentration of returns within a relatively small portion of the S&P 500. An analysis of sector performance reveals that technology stocks have once again emerged as the primary driver of market gains over the past several weeks, reestablishing themselves as the market’s leadership group. Technology now represents approximately 39% of the S&P 500, making its performance increasingly important to the overall direction of the index. As a result, investors should pay close attention to valuations and earnings growth within the sector, as weakness in technology could have an outsized impact on broader market returns. Last fall provided an encouraging example of market resilience, as other sectors stepped in to offset periods of weakness among technology companies. Whether that dynamic can repeat itself remains an important question for the remainder of the year. The growing influence of technology is largely tied to a handful of exceptionally profitable companies. The so-called “Magnificent Seven” now account for more than one-third of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization and continue to generate earnings growth far above the rest of the market. In the first quarter, these companies delivered earnings growth of 63.2%, roughly four times the growth rate achieved by the other 493 companies within the index. Corporate profitability more broadly has also remained remarkably strong. During the first quarter, S&P 500 companies retained nearly 15 cents of profit for every dollar of revenue generated. According to available data, that represents the highest profit margin recorded since tracking began in 2009 and is more than double the long-term average dating back to 1946. These trends suggest that while market leadership remains narrow, the underlying earnings environment continues to provide meaningful support for equities. Going forward, monitoring sector performance and return dispersion across the market will be critical in identifying opportunities and determining whether portfolio adjustments become necessary. A New Federal Reserve Chair Takes the Stage While market fundamentals remain strong, investors are also preparing for a major leadership transition at the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh is set to assume the role of Federal Reserve Chair, and his first meeting leading the Federal Open Market Committee will take place next week. Historically, markets have paid close attention to the early actions of a new Fed Chair, often reacting with heightened volatility as investors assess potential changes in policy direction. Historical data shows that market performance following a new Chair’s first meeting has frequently been challenged. On average, the market has experienced modest declines during the first several weeks after the transition, reflecting investor uncertainty and the market’s tendency to test new leadership. While historical averages provide useful context, individual outcomes have varied significantly depending on economic conditions and market circumstances at the time. The Federal Reserve’s decisions are ultimately driven by incoming economic data, making recent employment figures particularly important. The May employment report came in substantially stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 172,000 jobs compared to expectations of roughly 88,000. In addition, prior months’ payroll figures were revised higher, reversing a trend of downward revisions seen earlier in the year. Job growth remained broad-based across several sectors, including leisure and hospitality, healthcare, construction, and government employment. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains healthy. This strength in employment is significant because it directly relates to one half of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate: maximum employment and price stability. As Warsh begins his tenure, he will inherit an economy that continues to exhibit labor market resilience. The inflation outlook, however, remains less certain. Rising oil prices driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East have increased concerns about potential inflationary pressures. Future inflation data will likely play a major role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and influencing investor expectations for interest rates. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post The Fed’s Influence on the Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Transcribe →