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Gadi thinks it is. The US has demonstrated that it will not really fight – unless it’s easy, can be done from the air, and includes very few casualties. That is a bad signal for every rogue regime the world over. Mike thinks the MOU is just a tactical retreat, and that hostilities will resume, eventually. Both, however, agree that it’s a blow for Israel in general and for Netanyahu’s election bid in particular. Then there is also the joke about the skeleton who orders beer.

TRUMP AND NETANYAHU: A LOVERS' SPAT Contrary to the media’s rendering, no great rift has opened between Trump and Netanyahu. Rest assured that the Israeli attack on Iran was fully coordinated with the Americans. Trump, though, would do well to insist that Lebanon should have no relation to the negotiations with the Islamic Republic. Also on this episode: how rouge former head of Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, conspired with Attorney General Gali Baharav Miara to undermine an elected government.

ent Trump tweeted out Mike’s piece on how this war will end, which means Mike just may have been on to something. And on that view, things are not as grim as many – on the left and as well as the right – seem to think. Mike explains. Meanwhile, the Iranians are playing the Lebanon card to sow discord between the US and Israel. The episode opens, though, with one more hair-raising story in the never-ending saga of Israel’s deep state trying to take down Israel’s elected government. Mike's piece: https://www.thefp.com/p/iran-war-end-trump-peace-deal-israel

Calibrate your expectations to reality not to the media frenzy. This is the Middle East. Things are never as bad as the alarmists say and they are never as good as we would like. Mike, Gadi and guest analyst, Channel 14’s Tamir Morag, look at the pros and cons of the emerging deal, and ask how Israel should conduct itself vis-à-vis the American interests. Also in this episode: the skit about “Bibists” that created a cultural storm in Israel, and how the deep state operatives tried (and probably failed) to block Netanyahu’s candidate for Head of the Mossad.

Iran is bleeding out under the naval blockade, suffering more pain than most reporters allow. Mike and guest host Tamir Morag, diplomatic correspondent for Israel’s Channel 14, discuss the real options on the table. Also in this episode: what a deal should cover, why the war is reshuffling alliances, and, naturally, the case for Azerbaijan.

Don’t let the press fool you: the massive economic pressure is having a huge effect, and it will continue. Mike and Gadi discuss – and rank by likelihood – the different possible outcomes. Meanwhile high-ranking Israeli officials have been taunting Mike over and over again, about his opinions on Turkey – which are (finally!) shifting. Slightly.

It’s that time of the cycle when everything is judged by its possible influence on the coming October 2026 elections. Mike and Gadi discuss Netanyahu’s health, the Oct. 7 not-yet-appointed Commission of Inquiry, and the new political party formed by the merging of Bennett 2026 with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid. Also in this episode: how the war is going.

There are several possible developments moving forward on Iran: an improved version of a JCPOA; a resumption of hostilities; or a continuation of the current situation with economic pressure grinding down the Islamic Republic. The US can afford to wait longer than Iran can. Trump is likely to choose between those options based on how he views the impact on China. Also in this episode: Israel’s imperial Supreme Court thinks it has the authority to remove an elected minister. Read Mike's piece in Tablet here.

It is clear at this point who has the leverage: we—the U.S. and Israel—are winning this war. Rather than opening the Strait of Hormuz, Trump is closing it to Iranian shipping. It is unlikely that the Islamic Republic’s military dictatorship can survive this for long. Also in this episode: the China angle of the war, with our guest, the Hudson Institute’s Zineb Riboua. And finally, why Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary matters.

Mike thinks the achievements of this war are important enough to declare it a victory, though by no means a knock out. Mike and Gadi discuss the pros and cons of the ceasefire, the feasibility of an agreement, and the not unlikely return to military operations two weeks from now. Also in this episode: What are the reactions in Israel, what effects will the ceasefire have on the ongoing war in Lebanon, and what is “gleeful defeatism?” – All this and more on the new episode of Israel Update.