Podcast Summary: It Could Happen Here – 2026 Predictions

Date: January 6, 2026
Hosts: Robert Evans, Garrison Davis, Mia Wong, James Stout (plus mentions of Sophie and others)
Podcast: Cool Zone Media / iHeartPodcasts

Episode Overview

This episode of "It Could Happen Here" focuses on political, economic, and social predictions for 2026. The hosts open by reflecting on their 2025 predictions and move into detailed forecasts about technology, the economy, activism trends, the U.S. midterms, cabinet shake-ups under a second Trump term, and the likelihood of new foreign military interventions. The tone is irreverent, skeptical, and at times darkly humorous, maintaining the show's established style.

Reflections on 2025 Predictions

[00:40 – 12:46]

• Elon Musk’s Trump Breakup:

  • The team’s main editor Adam correctly predicted the Musk-Trump split would occur on May 30th.
  • "All of us stumble through our episodes and have to edit them all." – [01:10, A]
  • "Maybe to really give credit back to us maybe influenced your wisdom." – [02:02, A]

• Geopolitical Predictions:

  • Myanmar junta and Netanyahu: Still in power, predictions of their ousting didn't materialize.
  • Assad hosting RT: “That could still happen.” – [03:19, C]

• Notable ‘Death’ Prediction:

  • Garrison predicted an assassination attempt against Nick Fuentes during a livestream—a person did show up with a weapon, making it an eerie near-hit.

• Activism Trends:

  • Shift from mass mobilizations to “lone wolf” attacks and decentralized rapid response.
  • Major attacks of 2025 were often carried out by “sloppy Luigi copycats,” escalating since the Shinzo Abe assassination in 2022.
  • "This was like a super, super dominant part of 2025." – [10:29, A]

• Economic Collapse Prediction:

  • Mia predicted a major U.S. collapse, but notes, “It is kind of baffling to have my prediction completely derailed, literally just solely by a data center spending.” – [05:56, E]
  • Differentiation between “crumbling” and “collapse”—economic fundamentals keep degrading for most people, but a formal collapse hasn't hit yet.

Notable Quote

"People are already suffering under recession conditions. If you're like a working class person, like you are already dealing with the fallout effects of this."
— [17:36, A]

Key Trends and Insights for 2026

Economic & Tech Outlook

[13:03 – 20:15]

• Tech Bubble Warning:

  • Mia predicts the AI/datacenter bubble will pop in 2026.
    • "Someone is going to invent a cryptocurrency that can only be mined by large language models... They're gonna try it. It's gonna suck." – [14:14, E]
  • Consolidation is likely, not just collapse; some large companies (Microsoft, Google, Apple) can withstand turbulence.
  • Deranged financial products: Collateralized loan obligations backed by “compute time”—as reckless as (or worse than) pre-2008 financial engineering.
    • “This is more deranged than 2008... since the Tulip crisis.” – [17:05, E]
  • Any collapse is likely less devastating to individuals than 2008’s housing crash.
  • Anticipate recession nostalgia as downturn and retro-cycles converge.
    • "If it pops, it's going to line up almost perfectly with 2008 nostalgia. So we'll have recession nostalgia…” – [19:35, A]

• Influencer Economy:

  • Anticipated growth of “AI-integrated” influencer marketing, especially on visual platforms like TikTok and Instagram.
    • "We're only going to see more of that and it's just gonna, you know, gonna be peak capitalism." – [19:35, B]

• Cultural Backlash to AI:

  • Anecdotal evidence of young students rejecting AI tools as “cringe” and preferring improved literacy.
    • "I'm seeing teachers talk about...there being a backlash among very young people against the use of AI and the way it makes people talk. God, I hope." – [20:26, C]
  • Backlash is partially fueled by forced enthusiasm from adults and elites.

Activism: Mass Action & Lone Wolves

[11:15 – 12:46, throughout]

• Move away from massive, coordinated protests toward decentralization and sporadic, high-profile lone-wolf attacks.
  • "Once you start to expect it, it's a very predictable thing, which is someone carries out a shooting that actually manages to break through our levels of apathy." – [10:30, C]
• Not all collective action is dead; rapid-response networks opposing ICE led to improved organizing models.
  • "It is a positive trend in terms of the way that ICE has been forced to adjust their tactics..." – [11:15, E]
• Largest recent mobilizations were in response to specific ICE raids (e.g., Ventura, LA).

U.S. Election & Midterm Predictions

[22:43 – 29:55]

• Outlook:

  • General consensus that Democrats likely to gain seats, possibly both chambers, but not a landslide.
    • "It's possible they take both chambers. I don't think it's going to be a landslide. It's not going to be a blue tsunami." – [24:46, A]
  • Some hosts (Mia) foresee a major “blue wave,” D+14 levels not seen in recent cycles.
    • "This is going to be a fucking massacre." – [25:40, E]
  • "I've watched very, very dysfunctional state Democratic parties win elections in districts that were R+22. Anything could happen at this point." – [28:44, E]

• Trump Administration Woes:

  • The group discusses how Trump's policies (esp. trade/China/commodity prices) are alienating core rural constituencies.
  • All agree that Democrats’ ongoing success depends on sustained activism and messaging.

• Structural Obstacles:

  • “Redistricting stuff” and other built-in Republican advantages may limit potential Democratic gains even in strong years.
    • Senate easier to flip; House remains a toss-up.

Predictions: Trump Cabinet, Wars, and More

[30:26 – 34:48]

• Cabinet Turnover:

  • Trump’s second-term cabinet has exhibited unexpected stability compared to 2016, with no major shakeups yet.
    • "It is just pure loyalty." – [32:04, A]
  • Cash Patel identified as the most likely to be out, but most expect Trump’s “team player” loyalists (e.g., Hegseth) to remain.

• U.S. Military Action:

  • High confidence in expanded UAV/droning campaigns in the Sahel (Africa), Nigeria.
    • "I do think in the next 12 months the US will begin a UAV campaign in the Sahel, quite possibly Nigeria. Like, I think that's possible in the next 12 weeks." – [32:55, D]
  • Special operations in Mexico cited as probable, and possible (but not desired) escalation/deployments after aerial “fuck-ups” in Venezuela.
    • "They actually think you can do this [topple regimes with airstrikes] despite all evidence to the contrary." – [34:48, E]

• Potential for a President Vance:

  • Small but real chance should Trump die in office due to his age.
    • "He's at the age where he could just drop dead. Right. Outside of that. No, I don't think he's likely to become president." – [32:40, C]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This is the most deranged thing I have seen since the Tulip crisis. Like, I cannot explain. Good God, that's so insane." – [17:09, E] (on compute-backed loans)

• "This was like a super, super dominant part of 2025." – [10:29, A] (on lone wolf attacks and assassination attempts)

• "If it pops, it's going to line up almost perfectly with 2008 nostalgia. So we'll have recession nostalgia, which is already starting to happen in the same time as a whole economic recession." – [19:35, A]

• "Once you start to expect it, it's a very predictable thing, which is someone carries out a shooting that actually manages to break through our levels of apathy about violence in this society..." – [10:30, C]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Reflections on 2025 Predictions: 00:40 – 12:46
• Economic and Tech Predictions (AI bubble, influencer economy, AI backlash): 13:03 – 21:57
• Election and Midterm Analysis: 22:43 – 29:55
• Trump Cabinet & Military Predictions: 30:26 – 34:48

Tone & Style

The conversation is irreverent, rapid-fire, and loaded with political and pop-culture references, in keeping with "It Could Happen Here"'s blend of gallows humor and earnest critique.

Summary Table of Major 2026 Predictions

| Domain | Prediction | Confidence | |-------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------| | Tech/Economy | AI/datacenter bubble bursts, possible compute-mining crypto arises | High | | U.S. Politics | Democrats gain in midterms, at least one chamber; possible blue wave | Moderate-High | | Activism | Further decentralized action, less mass mobilization, lone wolf incidents | High | | Trump Cabinet | Little turnover; loyalty above all | High | | Military | Expansion of U.S. UAV/airstrikes (esp. Sahel, Venezuela), spec ops in MX | High | | Pop Culture | AI backlash among Zoomers; influencer economy grows | Moderate-High | | "Wild Card" | Vance could ascend to presidency if Trump dies, but <30% chance | Low |

Wrap-Up

For listeners seeking a comprehensive and critical overview of trends likely to shape 2026, this episode delivers a sharp, informed, and unsparingly honest snapshot—grounded in both current events and historical patterns, but always with an eye for the absurdities and innovations of the unfolding American collapse.