2026 Predictions

Summary

Podcast Summary: It Could Happen Here – 2026 Predictions

Date: January 6, 2026
Hosts: Robert Evans, Garrison Davis, Mia Wong, James Stout (plus mentions of Sophie and others)
Podcast: Cool Zone Media / iHeartPodcasts

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Episode Overview

This episode of "It Could Happen Here" focuses on political, economic, and social predictions for 2026. The hosts open by reflecting on their 2025 predictions and move into detailed forecasts about technology, the economy, activism trends, the U.S. midterms, cabinet shake-ups under a second Trump term, and the likelihood of new foreign military interventions. The tone is irreverent, skeptical, and at times darkly humorous, maintaining the show's established style.

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Reflections on 2025 Predictions

[00:40 – 12:46]

• Elon Musk’s Trump Breakup:

  • The team’s main editor Adam correctly predicted the Musk-Trump split would occur on May 30th.
  • "All of us stumble through our episodes and have to edit them all." – [01:10, A]
  • "Maybe to really give credit back to us maybe influenced your wisdom." – [02:02, A]

• Geopolitical Predictions:

  • Myanmar junta and Netanyahu: Still in power, predictions of their ousting didn't materialize.
  • Assad hosting RT: “That could still happen.” – [03:19, C]

• Notable ‘Death’ Prediction:

  • Garrison predicted an assassination attempt against Nick Fuentes during a livestream—a person did show up with a weapon, making it an eerie near-hit.

• Activism Trends:

  • Shift from mass mobilizations to “lone wolf” attacks and decentralized rapid response.
  • Major attacks of 2025 were often carried out by “sloppy Luigi copycats,” escalating since the Shinzo Abe assassination in 2022.
  • "This was like a super, super dominant part of 2025." – [10:29, A]

• Economic Collapse Prediction:

  • Mia predicted a major U.S. collapse, but notes, “It is kind of baffling to have my prediction completely derailed, literally just solely by a data center spending.” – [05:56, E]
  • Differentiation between “crumbling” and “collapse”—economic fundamentals keep degrading for most people, but a formal collapse hasn't hit yet.

Notable Quote

"People are already suffering under recession conditions. If you're like a working class person, like you are already dealing with the fallout effects of this."
— [17:36, A]

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Key Trends and Insights for 2026

Economic & Tech Outlook

[13:03 – 20:15]

• Tech Bubble Warning:

  • Mia predicts the AI/datacenter bubble will pop in 2026.
    • "Someone is going to invent a cryptocurrency that can only be mined by large language models... They're gonna try it. It's gonna suck." – [14:14, E]
  • Consolidation is likely, not just collapse; some large companies (Microsoft, Google, Apple) can withstand turbulence.
  • Deranged financial products: Collateralized loan obligations backed by “compute time”—as reckless as (or worse than) pre-2008 financial engineering.
    • “This is more deranged than 2008... since the Tulip crisis.” – [17:05, E]
  • Any collapse is likely less devastating to individuals than 2008’s housing crash.
  • Anticipate recession nostalgia as downturn and retro-cycles converge.
    • "If it pops, it's going to line up almost perfectly with 2008 nostalgia. So we'll have recession nostalgia…” – [19:35, A]

• Influencer Economy:

  • Anticipated growth of “AI-integrated” influencer marketing, especially on visual platforms like TikTok and Instagram.
    • "We're only going to see more of that and it's just gonna, you know, gonna be peak capitalism." – [19:35, B]

• Cultural Backlash to AI:

  • Anecdotal evidence of young students rejecting AI tools as “cringe” and preferring improved literacy.
    • "I'm seeing teachers talk about...there being a backlash among very young people against the use of AI and the way it makes people talk. God, I hope." – [20:26, C]
  • Backlash is partially fueled by forced enthusiasm from adults and elites.

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Activism: Mass Action & Lone Wolves

[11:15 – 12:46, throughout]

• Move away from massive, coordinated protests toward decentralization and sporadic, high-profile lone-wolf attacks.
  • "Once you start to expect it, it's a very predictable thing, which is someone carries out a shooting that actually manages to break through our levels of apathy." – [10:30, C]
• Not all collective action is dead; rapid-response networks opposing ICE led to improved organizing models.
  • "It is a positive trend in terms of the way that ICE has been forced to adjust their tactics..." – [11:15, E]
• Largest recent mobilizations were in response to specific ICE raids (e.g., Ventura, LA).

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U.S. Election & Midterm Predictions

[22:43 – 29:55]

• Outlook:

  • General consensus that Democrats likely to gain seats, possibly both chambers, but not a landslide.
    • "It's possible they take both chambers. I don't think it's going to be a landslide. It's not going to be a blue tsunami." – [24:46, A]
  • Some hosts (Mia) foresee a major “blue wave,” D+14 levels not seen in recent cycles.
    • "This is going to be a fucking massacre." – [25:40, E]
  • "I've watched very, very dysfunctional state Democratic parties win elections in districts that were R+22. Anything could happen at this point." – [28:44, E]

• Trump Administration Woes:

  • The group discusses how Trump's policies (esp. trade/China/commodity prices) are alienating core rural constituencies.
  • All agree that Democrats’ ongoing success depends on sustained activism and messaging.

• Structural Obstacles:

  • “Redistricting stuff” and other built-in Republican advantages may limit potential Democratic gains even in strong years.
    • Senate easier to flip; House remains a toss-up.

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Predictions: Trump Cabinet, Wars, and More

[30:26 – 34:48]

• Cabinet Turnover:

  • Trump’s second-term cabinet has exhibited unexpected stability compared to 2016, with no major shakeups yet.
    • "It is just pure loyalty." – [32:04, A]
  • Cash Patel identified as the most likely to be out, but most expect Trump’s “team player” loyalists (e.g., Hegseth) to remain.

• U.S. Military Action:

  • High confidence in expanded UAV/droning campaigns in the Sahel (Africa), Nigeria.
    • "I do think in the next 12 months the US will begin a UAV campaign in the Sahel, quite possibly Nigeria. Like, I think that's possible in the next 12 weeks." – [32:55, D]
  • Special operations in Mexico cited as probable, and possible (but not desired) escalation/deployments after aerial “fuck-ups” in Venezuela.
    • "They actually think you can do this [topple regimes with airstrikes] despite all evidence to the contrary." – [34:48, E]

• Potential for a President Vance:

  • Small but real chance should Trump die in office due to his age.
    • "He's at the age where he could just drop dead. Right. Outside of that. No, I don't think he's likely to become president." – [32:40, C]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This is the most deranged thing I have seen since the Tulip crisis. Like, I cannot explain. Good God, that's so insane." – [17:09, E] (on compute-backed loans)

• "This was like a super, super dominant part of 2025." – [10:29, A] (on lone wolf attacks and assassination attempts)

• "If it pops, it's going to line up almost perfectly with 2008 nostalgia. So we'll have recession nostalgia, which is already starting to happen in the same time as a whole economic recession." – [19:35, A]

• "Once you start to expect it, it's a very predictable thing, which is someone carries out a shooting that actually manages to break through our levels of apathy about violence in this society..." – [10:30, C]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Reflections on 2025 Predictions: 00:40 – 12:46
• Economic and Tech Predictions (AI bubble, influencer economy, AI backlash): 13:03 – 21:57
• Election and Midterm Analysis: 22:43 – 29:55
• Trump Cabinet & Military Predictions: 30:26 – 34:48

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Tone & Style

The conversation is irreverent, rapid-fire, and loaded with political and pop-culture references, in keeping with "It Could Happen Here"'s blend of gallows humor and earnest critique.

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Summary Table of Major 2026 Predictions

| Domain | Prediction | Confidence | |-------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------| | Tech/Economy | AI/datacenter bubble bursts, possible compute-mining crypto arises | High | | U.S. Politics | Democrats gain in midterms, at least one chamber; possible blue wave | Moderate-High | | Activism | Further decentralized action, less mass mobilization, lone wolf incidents | High | | Trump Cabinet | Little turnover; loyalty above all | High | | Military | Expansion of U.S. UAV/airstrikes (esp. Sahel, Venezuela), spec ops in MX | High | | Pop Culture | AI backlash among Zoomers; influencer economy grows | Moderate-High | | "Wild Card" | Vance could ascend to presidency if Trump dies, but <30% chance | Low |

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Wrap-Up

For listeners seeking a comprehensive and critical overview of trends likely to shape 2026, this episode delivers a sharp, informed, and unsparingly honest snapshot—grounded in both current events and historical patterns, but always with an eye for the absurdities and innovations of the unfolding American collapse.

Transcript

[A]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[B]

Guaranteed.

[A]

Human.

[C]

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[B]

Call Zone Media.

[A]

So I have pulled up Polymarket and Kalshi. We're going to go through each of the trending predictions right now and then decide where we're going to be putting our last year's profit from Cool Zone Coin, we're going to be transferring that on the blockchain to. To Polymarket. And I think we can come out of this year with a big profit.

[C]

This is how we're relying on funding our operations.

[D]

Yeah, this is just going forward. Can you check Polymarket real quick, see if Maurice is still alive?

[B]

Jesus.

[D]

It's been three years in a row.

[A]

So this is our 2026 predictions episode, like usual. I think we should start by reflecting on some of our predictions from last year to see how right and wrong we were. The big one, big prediction that we, we discussed the most as a team is when is Elon Musk going to distance himself from Trump or when are they going to break up? Where do they have their, you know, separation? And each and every one of the extended Cool Zone Media team members who works on it could happen here put in a date. And the most accurate guess was from it could happen here as main editor Adam, who. Who said May 30, which was really spot on. So congrats to Adam, Adam. All of us stumble through our episodes and have to edit them all.

[C]

Cutting all the burps out. Yeah, actually.

[A]

Actually, you know, maybe to really give credit back to us maybe influenced your. Your wisdom.

[D]

Let me reflect on this glory on myself.

[C]

We really made him wiser. And thus we're all wrong ourselves.

[D]

And this Adam, she's probably taken more psychological damage.

[A]

It's a good. You know, it means that we're smarter as a group entity, as a hive mind. We're all smarter than our own individual intelligence, which Adam has the most access to.

[C]

Yes, just like ants.

[A]

Yeah, exactly. But yeah, no, Adam. Adam did pretty good on that May 30th guess. So there you go, Sophie. Also close at May 6th and then Molly. Molly conger. June 10th. So kind of in that zone, but Adam definitely hit it spot on. We had a few other predictions. Some of them were predictions. Some of them, I guess, were kind of more hopes and dreams, which sadly did not come to pass. The Myanmar junta was predicted by me and James to. Junta.

[D]

Oh, God.

[A]

Was predicted by me and James to not make it out. 2025. They've kind of stuck on to power.

[C]

Yeah, yeah, they've.

[D]

They've rallied pretty substantially, actually.

[C]

It's. It's unfortunate Netanyahu still is prime minister.

[A]

I did predict that Assad would become a Russia Today host, which I think is a good prediction, but did not happen.

[C]

That could still happen.

[A]

That still might happen in the future.

[D]

Yeah. I'm waiting for them to hire him for a fucking podcast.

[C]

I don't think I predicted this, but I'm not surprised. He's just playing video games.

[A]

No, he's just holed up in a hotel playing video games now.

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

During our death segment, I laid out a new theory of death based on Spotify wrapped, which the previous two years had some important deaths associated with Spotify wrapped day. No big Spotify wrapped deaths this year. Unfortunately, though, I. I did make a death prediction last episode, which did not fully become true, but slightly became true right after we recorded that episode. Last year, before the episode even aired, I predicted that someone would try to assassinate Nick Fuentes while Nick was live streaming, perhaps a deranged fanboy. Days later, just days later, someone showed up outside of Nick's house as he was live streaming with a weapon, allegedly trying to kill him. This person died later that night in an, like, exchange with police. It became this whole thing. But that. That happened just a few days after I made that prediction. So technically didn't even happen in 2025. Happened still in 2024 before we aired that last episode, but was close. Was close to some kind of zeitgeist on that. It's unclear if that guy was a fanboy. We really don't know much about him. What's a few other predictions that have, like, kind of. Kind of come true, but, like, it's more in terms of, like, which degree, I guess.

[C]

I think my weird terrorism prediction has been pretty. Yeah, money. Yeah, That's. That's continued to be a driver of the discourse.

[A]

We'll return to that in a sec. Sophie talked about, you know, Trump moving some, like, White House operations to Mar a Lago, which has partially happened. There's been a lot of, like, a. Like a holiday events done at Mar a lago sometimes he's working out of.

[B]

There some very odd things. Yeah.

[A]

But on the other hand, he's also just mar a lago of finding the White House itself, which with like the ballroom. So it's kind of going in both directions. Mia did, did put a very firm prediction on like an economic collapse in 2025, like in the United States. Again, it's. It's like a slow. In terms of like, one of the key ideas for our show is like, crumbles versus collapse. It certainly continued to crumble and I. But I think the actual full collapse point is still upcoming.

[E]

Yeah. We'll get into this more later. I will say it is kind of baffling to have my prediction completely derailed, literally just solely by a data center spending.

[A]

Yes.

[E]

Which I did not predict that the entire American growth rate would be an idea set of growth. Yeah, I, I didn't get that.

[A]

No. The actual like, like job market and economy has become so separate from like corporate spending and stock market stuff. And like, Robert did actually, I think, hit this a little bit on the head. He talked about how the economy will basically remain identical to Biden's economy in terms of inflation, but the stock market will continue to go up and housing will keep getting more expensive and the left will start to be able to hit conservatives on inflation. And yeah, I think that is pretty much what. What happened. The economy's in a relatively similar place as it was last year, but, you know, inflation is, is still ticking. There's some like, artificial attempts to like, bring it down by Trump, but it's not, not really working in terms of prices.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

No, the only thing cropping it up in a numbers term is fucking Nvidia. Well, Nvidia less so now, but just irrational exuberance over AI in general.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

But people are complaining about all the same things they were under Biden, just more so.

[A]

Yeah, Yeah. I guess I have three other points here. I talked about a blue governor deploying National Guard troops against Trump federal troops. Instead you got Trump deploying National Guard troops against individual cities with like, police kind of caught in between. I. We still have yet to see the, the, the cool and based moment where like a blue governor deploys National Guard against dhs.

[D]

Gavin Newsom deployed his Twitter account instead.

[A]

Yeah, no, still. Sophie talked about there'd be still no clear left wing Joe Rogan.

[B]

But so many have tried.

[A]

A lot of people tried.

[C]

I still feel like I could be it.

[A]

Well, you're gonna have to be a lot more on camera, I think I think we'll have to have a lot, a lot more on camera stuff for that.

[D]

More camera, less hair, larger gut, can't be explained.

[E]

More steroids.

[C]

I can do different drugs. Yeah.

[A]

I mean Adam Freeland is certainly positioning in that direction.

[B]

Yeah, I agree, Garrett. I agree Garrett. Also, I predicted that something would happen to the Paul brothers and unfortunately the only thing that happened is that their HBO show did not get renewed.

[D]

When was that boxing match?

[A]

That was the year prior.

[C]

And it wasn't good?

[A]

No.

[B]

They had a TV show called Paul American.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Are you serious? I didn't even hear about this.

[B]

It was on hbo but it got canceled.

[A]

I guess I've just had other stuff going on.

[D]

I, yeah, I'm kind of glad that I've lived a life where I didn't know that. I have no shame about that.

[A]

Finally, both myself and like a few of us kind of talked about this, is that there would be this movement away from big mobilizations. Some big mobilizations happened in short periods of time. Right. Like especially you could point to like la. I think it's probably the most significant. But in terms of like, like actual, like countrywide mass mobilizations, right. There's a movement away from this and movement towards lone wolf attacks which did happen. And specifically I, I, I predicted there would be like a very, a very sloppy Luigi copycat in the next four months. And oh boy, did we get him. Did this, did this happen multiple in reoccurring times. And this kind of played into this larger model I was creating which kind of starts around the assassination of Shinzo Abe, creating this escalating series of assassinations happening faster and faster because like after Shinzo Abe there was, you know, two years later, Thomas Crooks trying to assassinate Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. Six months later, the United Healthcare CEO. Three months after that, someone tried to burn down the home of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro in the middle of the night. One and a half months after that, there was the assassination of two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington D.C. 2 weeks after that, a Christian missionary named Vance Belter killed the Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband and shot Senator John Hoffman. Next month was the Prairieland assault on a nice facility in July, the exact details of which are still getting figured out in court. But after this things kind of tapered down for a bit until September with the Charlie Kirk assassination and the attack on the ICE facility in Texas which kills two immigrant detainees. So yeah, in terms of like, you know, lone wolf style, pre planned assassination style attacks, sloppy copycats, right. People Writing messages on bullet casings emulating the United Healthcare CEO assassination. This was like a super, super dominant part of 2025.

[C]

It's the same pattern. I talked about this at the end of my episode on Mangione after, like, that came out, right? That, like, there's copycats after every shooting. This is basically following the same kind of thing we saw in 2019 with the. The eight chance shootings, right where you like this. This is. This has been going on for much longer than that. But it's a very predictable. Once you start to expect it, it's a very predictable thing, which is someone carries out a shooting that actually manages to break through our levels of apathy about violence in this society and keeps everyone's attention. And then throughout the year, a bunch of different people try iterations based on that because it's the only way to get attention. And that's what all these people are craving, right? That's the only real currency that still has value.

[E]

I will say, I think to say something positive about the turn away from mass mobilizations was that the lone wolf stuff wasn't the only stuff that happened. There was also the turn towards the thing we talked about in our Q and A episode about the ICE rapid response stuff, which is, you know, there were a few big mobilizations, but then ICE was forced to change their tactics by the fact that giant mobilizations by ICE were going badly for them. And this did create a whole bunch of sort of decentralized rapid response networks and a whole bunch of actions that were sort of based on this. Very, very decentralized, very. We show up and we do this thing at this place, when it's happening, it has stopped some of the things that is happening. It has not stopped all of the horrors that have been happening. But I think it is a positive trend in terms of the way that ICE has been forced to adjust their tactics to do things that are harder and can get less people at a time. So I think that's worth, as a positive thing, worth sharing of how the tactical innovations that activists have been deploying have been forcing ICE to do less devastating raids.

[D]

We saw various attempts at mass mobilization, most successful with the no Kings marches, which were vast. But we also saw those 50, 51 things which kind of were not as successful in turning out large numbers of people. But like Mia said in Ventura, right? Like, we saw huge numbers of people show up when ICE tried to raid a couple of agricultural facilities up there. And yeah, I was up in la, We've spoken about that extensively. But like Garrison said that was probably the biggest mobilization against ICE at one time in one place that we saw.

[A]

Probably do ad break and then move into predictions for this upcoming year. 2026.

[C]

Yep.

[A]

The stock market is still trying to keep going, although in some parts is like if not going down, flatlining like bitcoin did not increase this past year. There's been a few popular like rising stocks like Netflix which are pretty much at the same spot they were at the start of 2025. Still going up and down.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

Games workshop is up 48%, baby.

[D]

Well there you can't stop the Warhammer train, baby.

[E]

Read Assassinorum kingmaker.

[C]

It's great. 67th most valuable company in the entire UK. Larger than their whole fishing industry, baby.

[A]

Jesus Christ.

[D]

Really?

[E]

Yeah.

[D]

That's wild, man.

[C]

Warhammer is load bearing to the British economy. It's the only thing Nottingham really has left.

[D]

Yeah. After they got rid of the Sheriff, it already went downhill for them. Hey, that and Robin Hood tourism is. Yeah, it's the only thing you can do in Nottingham now.

[E]

Okay, I have, I have a big one about this and it's not. The tech bubble is going to collapse. I do think a temple is going.

[C]

To pop this year at about this year, but within the next 12 months, I think you're saying because we've got like three weeks left in this year.

[A]

Well, you know, in 2026. Yeah. These are, these, these are predictions for 2026.

[E]

Yeah. In, in 2026 the tech bubble is going to pop. Yeah. That's not the prediction. The prediction is that in an attempt to recoup the value from all of the completely useless data centers that they will have built that can only run LLMs and can do nothing else, someone is going to invent a cryptocurrency that can only be mined by large language models. And this is going to be one of the big attempts to rec. The hideous, hideous amounts of capital that have been dumped into all these data centers is that they're going to have. Someone's going to find a way to make a kind of token that can only be generated by large language models. And they're gonna, they're gonna try it. Is it gonna work? I don't think so, but they are going to try it. It's going to be a big thing. They're gonna push it. It's gonna suck.

[C]

There's gonna be a bunch of desperate attempts to like once the money starts falling out. Which is not to say that I think that AI is going to. Even the AI that annoys But a lot of the irrational exuberance is going to end and a lot of the startups that are just burning money are going to fail or get acquired and you're going to see tremendous desperation for people to be like, this is the next thing. This is the next thing. Throw a bunch of money into this. Like, yeah, that's, that's gonna be annoying.

[A]

No, I mean, I feel like people have been talking about the. A bubble popping for a while. I have been hearing things from people who think and track this more than I do, that if it is going to happen, there's, there's indicators that it's more likely to happen in 26 than it was in 25. I'm not going to put money on that on the, on the Kalshi betting markets, but it does seem to be more of a possibility. And you can see this the way people are handling Nvidia stock right now and being advised not to buy more stock but still hold what you have.

[C]

Yeah. And just where Nvidia stock has moved over the last month or so.

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

So if you look at what's happening with Nvidia, we might have reached the peak and it might be sojover for some of these guys.

[B]

Wow.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

I think the big open question is how bad it's going to be. There's going to be at least one of these big AI companies. OpenAI or anthropic or somebody that either goes bust entirely or has to get acquired. But again, if you're looking at this rationally and not wishcasting, both Apple, Apple, Google and Microsoft are all perfectly capable of sustaining their rates of burn.

[A]

Microsoft is still going up. Yeah.

[C]

Facebook is as well. And I think what you're likelier to see is contraction and consolidation, which is not to say that it's not going to be disastrous for some group. I think there's a good chance that we do see some banks fail because there's some bad investments out there. Yeah.

[E]

They have been doing collateralized loan obligations where the underlying asset is compute time.

[D]

Yeah.

[E]

This is more deranged than 2008.

[C]

Yeah.

[E]

I cannot emphasize this enough. This is the most deranged thing I have seen since the Tulip crisis. Like, I cannot explain. Good God, that's so insane.

[C]

I mean, the upside that we have over 2008 is that the thing that all of these bad bets are on isn't people's houses. Right?

[A]

Yes.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

And so that does. There is a potential that some good comes out of it in terms of like universities getting access to A lot more compute that they can actually use for valuable things.

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

And people are already suffering under recession conditions. If you're like a working class person, like you are already dealing with the fallout effects of this. Just the stock market itself has been insulated from the rest of the economy, which is in a state of recession.

[E]

And also it can get worse, which.

[A]

So a lot of people who aren't like super wealthy are like pro this bubble popping and pro this. Because then if other people, people in power finally realize how bad it is, they're hopeful that then something might be done to like fix some of the material conditions. Which I can understand people's like, like, you know, point of view there.

[C]

Yeah. I am not as worried about this being as bad for the average person as 2008 was. I don't think it's going to be as satisfying as people are hoping it was. It's not going to wipe out or put an end to the annoyance of AI in our lives. Although it should make it easier to rationalize some of the shit people have been saying. Like it should make the craziest of the AI boosters being like, this is going to replace everything. The whole economy will be AI in two years. No one will have a job. That's going to be a lot harder for anybody who's not to not seem like a crazy person while advocating. But the Internet's going to stay annoying.

[D]

Like unfortunately it gets fucked for a little while there. Yeah.

[B]

I think my girly pop economy prediction is that we're going to continue to see influencer shopping. What I mean by that is like influencers have been pushing products like no other and marketing budgets have been going to influencer marketing at a rapid pace. And I think we're going to see the implementation of AI into that more. And I think that that is primarily going to be one of the ways. Like we might see less or we'll still see as much, but targeted ads and we're gonna see an addition to that. We'll also see like targeted influencer marketing for products. And like it's already pretty gnarly on like TikTok Instagram, but I think we're only gonna see more of that and it's just gonna, you know, gonna be peak capitalism. Care.

[A]

Something that could be really fun is that if it pops, it's going to line up almost perfectly with 2008 nostalgia. So we'll have recession nostalgia, which is already starting to happen in the same time as a whole economic recession. So we'll, we'll have the recessions line up in time with their nostalgia cycle. And then, you know, it's only a matter of months before you have, you know, like 2010s, like, hipster stuff coming, coming back in.

[C]

Great.

[A]

So, you know, it's, it's right there. We're so close. We're already at that like, like, you know, 2008 level of 2000s nostalgia. But if, if it lines up with the recession, then that could, that could be really exciting.

[C]

Now I'm also kind of curious as to whether or not we're going to start seeing, you know, a lot of the earliest adopters of AI on a regular basis were, were very young people using it to cheat at school.

[D]

Yes.

[C]

And just kind of trawling different teacher subreddits and online communities. I'm seeing teachers talk about, like, younger kids now there being a backlash among very young people against the use of AI and the way it makes people talk. God, I hope this is kind of coming alongside as you're starting to see a recovery in levels of literacy as schools depart from the bad way of teaching kids to read that fucked everyone up. I don't have any kind of longitudinal statistical data on this. This is all very much anecdotal. So I'm still waiting to see is this a broader trend, or did I just come across some people saying this is a thing that they're seeing in their area? But I'm kind of interested and there's a degree to which I think some sort of backlash against AI is inevitable just because of how everyone running society is trying to push people to replace everything with it. Like that just inevitably is going to irritate the kids because the adults are all doing it. Right. We'll see.

[D]

I think people are increasingly better at spotting AI, like, intuitively and very quickly. It's something I've seen not in high school, but, like, teaching at, like, a university level. People just being like, this is an AI response, and it's fucking cringe, like, because the AI always writes in a particularly cringe way. Right. That is very obvious and I've seen that. But I genuinely hope more people stop using AI because it is making education a pretty fucking miserable place to be right now. Which is a bummer because I like teaching.

[A]

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[A]

Hey, isn't everyone excited? It's another election year.

[D]

Already people are saying the most important one of our lives. Garrison?

[C]

I think so.

[A]

Just. What? I was starting to miss it.

[C]

Yeah, I'm voting Kamala for every single.

[A]

Candidate writing in charge of every single state level position.

[D]

Yeah, sure.

[A]

She will be the comptroller.

[B]

All right. You're killing me. Who, who do we think is going to run Gavin Newsom.

[D]

Midterms? Yeah, unfortunately, Sophie, we have another important election.

[C]

Talking about 2028 yet we don't have to do that until next year.

[B]

I skipped, I've skipped the midterms and I was already going to the next level of hell.

[A]

No, no, no.

[B]

Who's going to be governor of California? James?

[D]

God knows the Dems have not really been putting their strongest foot forward, have they? Katie Porter had these like really pretty nasty videos come out of the way. She was talking to people who work for her. I don't think that that is a good leadership trait and I don't think that that is a person we should choose. I don't know. I'm so resigned to being it, being someone shit, you know, that like, I honestly try not to put too much of my time and effort into it, but yeah, I know. Maybe I'll be fucking Katy Perry. Maybe Trudeau will pass on his electoral magic. She's got some good songs. She could use them with actually with the intellectual property licensing, which Trump doesn't do. She could get that shark. Maybe the shark could be vice governor. You know, there's potential there be as worried about the shark.

[A]

So obviously the Democrats are projected to do well in this, in this midterm election based on anti Trump sentiment and like the regular swing away from the, like whoever is in the executive branch in midterms. And yeah, I think the Democrats will do well, especially if you look at the last like a month or so of election results. I think it's possible they take both chambers. I think they will absolutely take one.

[B]

I'm going split.

[A]

It's possible they take both chambers. I don't think it's going to be a landslide. It's not going to be a blue tsunami.

[D]

Blue nami.

[A]

I think it may be a blue wave. I think, I think a wave or a small wave is likely. I do not think it's going to be a complete blowout, but there's been like, especially in the Tennessee special election, a 13 point shift.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Towards Democrats.

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

We've seen other double digit shifts across the country in the, in the past, in the past month. I don't know how much they'll be able to continue that sort of sentiment in, you know, nine months time, 10 months, 11 months time leading into November. So I think some of that enthusiasm will maybe taper off a little bit as Trump becomes kind of like a lame duck presidency. But I still think they'll do like. Okay. In terms of the Democrats, I very much disagree.

[E]

I think this is going to be like a generic D plus 14. This is going to be a fucking massacre.

[A]

What signs are pointing you towards that?

[E]

I mean, they just won the mayorship of Miami.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Well, so you're saying it's going to be good for the Democrats plus 14.

[E]

Yeah, like Democrats plus 14.

[A]

Okay.

[E]

Like I'm talking like a tsunami.

[A]

Okay.

[E]

Like my, my prediction is that all of the polling people are fudgeing cowards. What's happening right now with the polling is that they are using the 2024 electorate.

[C]

Yeah.

[E]

This is not the 2024 electorate. They have not figured this out yet.

[C]

No.

[E]

They are still underestimating the exact scale of which everyone fudgeing hates them.

[C]

Like, I'll be surprised if both houses flip.

[E]

But yeah, here's the thing. The Cuban parts of Miami.

[A]

Yeah.

[E]

Went left by like 15 points.

[D]

Yeah.

[E]

Something we talked about on the show. They are going through and systematically pissing off every single part of their base.

[D]

Right.

[E]

Like, one of the things I, one of the stories I've been tracking is about the ways in which they've been systematically pissing off a whole bunch of farmers who are a very, very consistent right wing voting base. And they're pissing them off with trade war bullshit because China's not buying soybeans. Right. This is how they're losing elections in western Iowa. I think the other part of this too is, and this is how I think the momentum is going to be sustained is that things haven't even gotten as bad as they're going to get yet. The actual standard of living in this country right now, it is going to get so much worse as, as all of the inflation stuff sort of racks up, et cetera, et cetera. Like the country is going to be worse. Everyone's going to be more pissed off. Trump is going to have bombed, like, four more countries. We're going to have, like, sent troops into Mexico or some shit. He's going to be so unpopular. It's going to be. It's going to be the fucking flood out there.

[A]

That's possible.

[C]

Yeah.

[D]

I think the incumbency advantage becomes less and less relevant the worse the economy gets. And, like, that was something Biden got hit with. Right. But Trump is. Is going to have to wear, especially to get further and further into his term. Right. It's a Trump economy.

[A]

I guess this just requires that the current momentum, Democrats have to be maintained for a while, which is something that historically Democrats haven't been great at.

[D]

Yes. They're shit at it.

[A]

So this will require effort for, you know, people like, organizing with the Democrats and social media messaging, like, actual in person, like, like electoral organizing to really, like, keep this momentum and pressure going for the next 11 months. Which, which is, you know, they've. They've done a good job at this the past, like, six months, but can they, like, maintain this to the midterms? That's the only point where I start to hesitate in terms of, like, the scale of, like, a blue wave. But I think it's. It's certainly possible that, that they end up doing quite well, but it's going to be reliant on, like, maintaining this, this pressure.

[C]

No, there's still some structural difficulties that make flipping Congress entirely very difficult, especially.

[A]

With the redistricting stuff happening.

[D]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[A]

So, like, could they take the Senate quite easily?

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

The House still up in the air for me, I think lean Democrat at this point, certainly leaning Democrat, but still not confident.

[C]

That'd be great. I just, I don't want to get irrationally, you know, ahead of our skis here.

[E]

I have watched very, very dysfunctional state Democratic parties win elections in districts that were R +22.

[D]

Fucking.

[C]

Fucking.

[E]

Anything could happen at this point.

[D]

Like.

[A]

No. Yeah.

[D]

It's not coming from a national strategy. It's coming from, like, local candidates doing well on local issues and people fucking hating Trump.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

Like, it is not the DNC who is putting Higgins or Mamdani in office. Well, yeah, that is, I guess, a good thing because the DNC fucking sucks. It has always fucking sucked. And it has really reinforced how much it sucks in the last eight years.

[A]

Yeah. And being able to hit Trump and Republicans on the economy with tariffs. This, like, oligarchy stuff has proven to be pretty successful so far. And I think Being able to continue that messaging as the economy trends in its current direction. Be able to continue that messaging I think will help the Democrats. Interestingly, Platinum in Maine still seems to be the front runner for that race. So I think there's a decent chance we get our first Tokov in the Senate.

[C]

Well, he doesn't have a Tonkov cover.

[D]

He has an absolutely dog shit cover up. I'm sorry if you are listening and you did that tattoo, but it's probably not your best work. He's got a blob now.

[A]

That stuff just did not prove to be super impactful to the actual voters in Maine it seems. And the actual focus on his talking points have maintained his lead. So I think that's something that Democrats can also look, look to in terms of like how much of these like, you know, like tertiary, like personal attacks or like, you know, genuine. Yeah, genuinely valid. Valid complaints or issues are not very dominant based on how much emphasis is actually getting put on this sort of like affordability messaging.

[B]

To wrap up this predictions episode, should we do a quick death pick?

[A]

No one's gonna die.

[C]

Oh, I thought you're gonna ask, do you think we're going to invade Venezuela?

[A]

No. See, this is what I'm interested in. I'm more interested in are we gonna start any wars? Yes. And is his cabinet gonna stay the same?

[C]

Kindest already have started one.

[B]

To answer your first question, yes. Is the cabinet gonna say the same? I'm surprised.

[A]

It's weird, right? Trump first term, there was a lot of cabinet turnover in the first year.

[D]

Sure. Scaramucci.

[A]

This is, this is not happening this year. This year they stayed pretty tight knit despite a lot of turmoil or like, you know, issues around like Cash Patel, Pam Bondi, RFK Jr, Pete Hegseth with the double tap war crime strikes, Nome as well. They are pretty tight knit, it seems. So I don't know if there's going to be cabinet turnover.

[B]

I think Cash Patel will be out next year.

[C]

Yeah, I think Cash might have. Yeah. Might be on the edge of it.

[D]

He's lost the podcast, Bryce.

[A]

He just found the J6 pipe bomber. I don't think it's going to happen. I think the cabinet's going to stay the same, which I predicted against last year. But I think based on how they've weathered certain controversies, I do not know if, if Trump cares enough to do cabinet turnover.

[D]

Yeah. Or whoever's talking to him about these things.

[C]

Yeah, we'll see. I don't. There's no one that I think is an obvious Choice. I think the likeliest turnover is Patel, then maybe Hegseth. I don't think he's going to go. I think Hegseth is too loyal. He's. He's a, he's a team player.

[B]

Sure.

[C]

And he has absolutely no chance of going into business for himself. Right.

[A]

This is the big thing is that it's not a skill or competency that got these people their jobs. Loyalty, which, you know, it's kind of, kind of was a factor in Trump 1.0, in Trump 2.0, it is just pure loyalty.

[D]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[A]

And if they're able to prove that, especially around like, you know, the Epstein stuff, really, really tested those, those loyalties.

[D]

Yes.

[A]

And if they're able to get out of the Epstein controversy, like, kind of intact, then I think all these guys will be set for like the next, next little bit, I guess. Do we think Vance is ever going to become a president during the next like year or two?

[C]

Trump is like 80, so I'm not going to say there's not a 20 or 30% chance that just like, if Donald Trump dies, Vance becomes the president. Right. And like he's at the age where he could just drop dead. Right. Outside of that. No, I don't think he's likely to become president.

[D]

Yeah. I do think in the next 12 months the US will begin a UAV campaign in the Sahel, quite possibly Nigeria. Like, I think that's possible in the next 12 weeks. Just looking at flights that they've had.

[C]

Very recently, there's a decent chance too that they start expanding the use of special forces and Maybe even keep FOBs open without the willingness of the Nigerian government. But that's a longer shot.

[D]

Yeah. And the Nigerian government's pretty, pretty into it right now.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Do you think they're going to put troops on the ground in either Mexico or Venezuela?

[C]

I think there's a good chance that we, we utilize special forces on the ground in parts of Mexico for brief periods of time.

[D]

There's a good chance that we already have.

[C]

Yeah. That we almost certainly already have. I think there's a chance that we wind up having people on the ground in Venezuela after a fuck up. Right. Like, but I think that at present their plan is airstrikes and drone strikes. I think if we were to wind up having anything on the ground in Venezuela, it would be as a result of like a strike with a manned craft going badly and someone going down over Venezuela. That's not a zero percent chance if they keep fucking around. But I really don't think they want to have troops on the ground in Venezuela. I think they want to be striking targets in Venezuela.

[D]

Yeah. It's not a place where they want. You want large numbers of troops to be, to be engaging. Like that wouldn't go well. Trump does not want to wear that. Right. Like, if we saw in Syria, like, he wasn't willing to deploy large numbers of troops, he was willing to use a lot of drone and airstrikes, even when the civilian cost was very high. And I think that is the model, like that strike cell model that we saw like, like the, the strike in Baghuz at the end of the Islamic State is probably a good example of the sort of.

[C]

Yeah.

[D]

Quote, unquote, collateral damage. Right. Killing civilians that we can expect them to see as acceptable.

[E]

I think the final point on this is that the Trump administration genuinely believes that they can topple regimes with airstrikes. They thought, they thought this with the Houthis and they think this is about Venezuela. They actually think you can do this despite all evidence to the contrary. So I think it's going to inform a lot of their decisions.

[D]

Yeah. And I think Syria, like, kind of not, not Syria with Assad, but Syria with the Islamic State reinforced that for them. But, like, they're obviously overlooking that they have an incredible partner force, so they don't have in these places.

[A]

Yeah. Well, I think that's our predictions. First time we're not doing a death segment. And you know what? I feel fine about that.

[C]

Yep.

[A]

No one's going to die in 2026.

[C]

Morrissey.

[D]

Still, I'm not going to say it this time because I've been inadvertently blessing him with long life.

[C]

It Could Happen.

[B]

Here is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, Visit our website, coolzone media.com or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, you can now find sources for It Could Happen here listed directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.

[A]

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