Caribbean Roundtable

Summary

It Could Happen Here — Caribbean Roundtable (October 27, 2025) Cool Zone Media & iHeartPodcasts
Host: Robert Evans
Panelists: Michael Palberg (VCU, Center for National Policy), Andrew (Trinidad and Tobago)

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Episode Overview

This roundtable episode addresses the escalating crisis in the Caribbean, catalyzed by the United States’ campaign of drone strikes against small vessels. The discussion focuses on the regional political fallout, the ramifications for affected Caribbean countries (especially Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela), the nature of U.S. interventions in the region, and the roles of various state and non-state actors. The panelists—experts in organized crime, regional politics, and activism—unpack the complexities underlying U.S. narratives about “narco-terrorism” and provide insight into the lived realities and responses within Caribbean societies.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Drone Strikes in the Caribbean: Context & Claims

[03:29–05:16]

• The United States administration (Trump, second term) has conducted at least seven drone strikes on small boats, with over 32 killed—including nationals from multiple countries.
• Official justification: strikes target vessels allegedly carrying Venezuelan criminals tied to "narco-terrorism."
• Among the dead: Venezuelan, Colombian, and two Trinidad and Tobago nationals.
• Political fallout: Colombia withdraws diplomats, tariffs and sanctions emerge, and regional political turmoil escalates.

Key Quote:
"The US is bringing its war on terrorism logic to the Western Hemisphere... And this has sparked…significant political turmoil in the Western Hemisphere."
— Host [03:29]

2. Who Are the Real ‘Narco-Terrorist’ Groups?

[05:16–07:05]

• Michael Palberg clarifies: The Reinde Aragua (Tren de Aragua) is a Venezuelan criminal group, but primarily involved in human trafficking and extortion, not international drug smuggling.
• Their activity closely follows the Venezuelan diaspora, preying on migrants—not functioning as a “cartel” akin to historically infamous ones (Sinaloa, etc.).
• US claims of fentanyl/cocaine trafficking from Venezuela are highly dubious; Venezuela isn’t a coca producer, and fentanyl is largely produced elsewhere.
• It’s more likely the strikes hit migrant smuggling boats or innocent civilians.

Key Quote:
"It is highly unlikely...if the Trump administration is striking boats that they claim to be vessels transporting cocaine or fentanyl…those are not made in Venezuela."
— Michael Palberg [06:18]

3. Colombian Political Response & US-Colombia Relations

[07:05–11:25]

• Significant pushback from Colombian President Gustavo Petro, himself now absurdly accused by the US of being a “drug trafficker.”
• Palberg summarizes Petro’s history as a left-wing politician, former guerrilla (M19—not deeply involved with drugs), critical of the war on drugs, but inherits deep US-Colombia security ties.
• Recent breakdown of Colombia’s internal peace process has seen renewed violence but nowhere near historic civil war levels.
• US accusations are seen as both baseless and inflammatory.

Key Quotes:
"To accuse the President of [Colombia] of being a drug crafter is fairly ludicrous."
— Host [09:38]
"Petro has been very critical of the war on drugs approach generally, but…he is not exactly a full-on peacenik when it comes to his own internal security."
— Michael Palberg [09:54]

4. Trinidad and Tobago: Internal Turmoil and Alignment with the US

[11:32–18:17]

• Andrew describes the fallout for Trinidad & Tobago, where the government is silent after two nationals are killed by US strikes.
• Recent elections brought the pro-US United National Congress (UNC) to power, led by Kamala Persad-Bissessar, who has furthered Trinidad’s alignment with the US, to the region’s consternation.
• Criticism over lack of support for victims’ families and shift away from CARICOM’s “zone of peace” ideals.
• The new government is called a “satellite state” to US policy and accused of abandoning regional solidarity.

Key Quote:
"She has called for the US to kill them all violently, extrajudicially, and stated that she is perfectly aligned with what the US is doing in the region, despite its flagrant violations of international law."
— Andrew [15:30]

Notable Context:
“Trinidad & Tobago… is about 11 kilometers away from Venezuela itself.”
— Andrew [12:44]

5. US Military Posturing & Prospects for Regime Change

[24:39–30:03]

• Discussion pivots to long-term US goals: regime change in Venezuela or disruption of organized crime?
• Michael Palberg casts doubt on the military feasibility (Venezuela is large, US deployments small relative to serious invasion).
• Historical analogies (Noriega, Panama) are ill-fitting: vastly different scale and context.
• The US record of failed regime change attempts (Iraq, elsewhere) is highlighted.

Key Quotes:
"The idea that this is a counternarcotics operation doesn't hold up. Clearly it is meant to be more of a regime change operation."
— Michael Palberg [27:41]
"Even if somehow they were to drone strike [Maduro]…the regime as a whole would [not] fall because it is an extremely militarized regime."
— Michael Palberg [29:15]

6. Venezuelan Politics & The Opposition

[22:58–36:51]

• Overview of Venezuela’s 2024 election, allegedly brokered under US sanctions for fair participation, producing an official Maduro win many consider stolen.
• Maria Corina Machado (opposition leader) wins Nobel Prize, possibly to encourage US moderation. Seen as courageous but hardline, holds appeal especially as disillusionment with Maduro deepens.
• The opposition remains fractured, and sanctions/regime change strategies have largely failed to produce meaningful reform—or relief for ordinary Venezuelans.

Key Quotes:
"Everyone basically admits at this point that he [Maduro] stole the election. But what are you going to do about it?"
— Michael Palberg [32:44]
"[Machado] is on the right politically… She is also a very good organizer…has achieved this kind of mythic figure."
— Michael Palberg [34:58]

7. Voice of the Caribbean: Regional Solidarity & Action

[41:28–44:18]

• Andrew reflects on grassroots and societal response: regional demonstrations, declarations from progressive organizations, but concedes solidarity action is limited and resistance to US power feels daunting.
• The need for Caribbean unity against external interference and adherence to international law is stressed.

Key Quote:
"The US’s superpower status is almost akin to an Eldritch horror. It feels like it's unfathomable how you could even go about approaching that at times."
— Andrew [42:01]

8. Solidarity and Perspectives on US/Leftist Alliances

[44:18–49:50]

• Michael Palberg calls for international solidarity with people, not authoritarian states—pointing out that parts of the global left reflexively support rogue regimes to oppose US policy, often to the detriment of progressive causes.
• A generational split is noted within the Latin American left; newer leaders are more openly critical of Maduro.
• The collapse of the “campist” worldview, which reduces complex societies to proxies in a US vs. Russia/China contest.

Key Quotes:
"It is not helpful to view the world in this campist lens. I think…solidarity should be with the Venezuelan people."
— Michael Palberg [46:44]
"If there ever were to be democratic elections in Venezuela, it's pretty clear the country would turn to the right…and we shouldn't be surprised by that."
— Michael Palberg [48:21]

9. Media Coverage & Further Reading

[51:26–53:45]

• US media is critiqued for parochial, one-sided coverage.
• Andrew suggests following local Caribbean news outlets or grassroots pages on social media (Instagram: Vintage Caribbean, Trinbago for Palestine).
• Michael Palberg recommends: international outlets in Spanish/Portuguese (e.g., El País), Insight Crime for organized crime analysis, and cautions about being mindful of US political distraction tactics.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "It's not opposition candidates who get blown up when they go fishing. It's regular working class Venezuelan people."
  — Host [41:29]

• "I try to remind myself that people have fought and won… You know, currently there isn’t that much going on. There are murmurs—of fear, of disdain, of disagreement, of distrust."
  — Andrew [42:18]

• "There's something to be said about strong men recognizing strong men. And a lot of these authoritarian lessons are not limited to one side of the ideological spectrum."
  — Michael Palberg [49:29]

• “Our solidarity should be with [Venezuelan people], not with some strongman state. …This campist grayzone tendency on the American left specifically is incredibly toxic.”
  — Host [49:50]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• US strikes & deaths overview: [03:29–05:16]
• Narcoterrorism narrative challenged: [05:16–07:05]
• Petro’s Colombia & US relations: [07:45–11:25]
• Trinidad & Tobago’s political crisis: [12:07–18:17]
• US regime change discourse: [24:39–30:03]
• Venezuela's opposition & politics: [22:58–36:51]
• Solidarity & resistance: [41:28–44:18]
• Critique of Western left’s ‘campism’: [44:18–49:50]
• Media & information sources: [51:26–53:45]

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Recommendations & Resources

• For Caribbean & grassroots perspectives:

  • Instagram: @VintageCaribbean, @TrinbagoForPalestine
  • Local news outlets for Trinidad & Tobago

• For investigative/analytical reporting:

  • Insight Crime (organized crime analysis)
  • El País (Spain)
  • Spanish/Portuguese news sources in Latin America

• Panelists’ further work:

  • Andrew: andrewsage.org, YouTube
  • Michael Palberg: Twitter/X/BlueSky: @MPAARLBERG

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Tone

The conversation is candid, urgent, and informed—mixing political analysis with on-the-ground context. There is a palpable sense of frustration at both US policy and the limitations of global solidarity, tempered by the panelists’ commitment to amplifying local voices and prioritizing people over governments.

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Takeaway

This episode dismantles official US narratives, underscores the deadly impact of foreign intervention in the Caribbean, and calls for critical, people-centered solidarity—eschewing simplistic binaries and recognizing the agency and suffering of ordinary Caribbean and Venezuelan people.

Transcript

[Host]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Michael Palberg]

I turned off news altogether.

[Host]

I hate to say it, but I.

[Michael Palberg]

Don'T trust much of anything. It's the rage bait. It feels like it's trying to divide people.

[Host]

We got clear facts. Maybe we can calm down a little.

[Andrew]

NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News, reporting for America.

[Sophia]

I live below a cult leader and I fear I've angered her.

[Dakota]

Wait a minute, Sophia, how do you know she's a cult leader?

[Sophia]

Well, Dakota, luckily it's I'm not afraid of a scary story week on the OK Storytime podcast, so we'll find out soon. This person writes, my neighbor has been blasting music every day and doing dirt rituals and now my ceiling is collapsing. I tried to report them, but things keep getting weirder. I think they might be part of a cult.

[Dakota]

Hold up a real life cult. And what is a dirt ritual?

[Sophia]

No clue, Dakota. Find out how it ends. Listen to the OK Storytime podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Johnny Knoxville]

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[Michael Palberg]

Kind of like Robin Hood, except for the part where he steals from the rich and gives to the poor.

[Host]

I'm not that generous.

[Johnny Knoxville]

It's a damn near inspiring true story for anyone out there who's ever shot for the moon, then just totally muffed up the landing.

[Michael Palberg]

They stole $17 million and had not bought a ticket to help him escape.

[Host]

So we're sitting like, oh God, what do we do?

[Michael Palberg]

What do we do?

[Host]

That was dumb.

[Michael Palberg]

People do not follow my example.

[Johnny Knoxville]

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[Michael Palberg]

This is Jim.

[Host]

Hello.

[Michael Palberg]

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[Host]

Hi.

[Michael Palberg]

She started putting a portion of her marketing dollars in podcasting back in June.

[Maggie Freeling]

Businesses booming.

[Sophia]

That's why I'm working on a Saturday.

[Michael Palberg]

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[Maggie Freeling]

Call Zone Media.

[Host]

Hi, everyone, and welcome to It Could Happen Here. It's a very special roundtable podcast today where we're going to discuss the United States ongoing campaign of bombing small boats in the Caribbean. I'm joined by Michael Palberg, an associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University and a fellow at the center for National Policy. Hi, Michael. Thanks for joining us.

[Michael Palberg]

Hi. Thanks for having me.

[Host]

And Andrew is also here. Listeners of the show will be familiar with Andrew's work. He joins us very often, but in this instance, Andrew is talking as someone who is from Trinidad and Tobago, which of course is very much being impacted by this. Hey, Andrew.

[Michael Palberg]

Hey.

[Andrew]

What's going on?

[Host]

Not much. Well, let's talk about what's going on because something quite substantial is going on. What's going on is that the United States is carrying out a campaign of drone strikes against small vessels in the Caribbean. As far as we know, There have been seven strikes. At least 32 people have been killed. Two people have been detained and then repatriated, and a number of vessels have been struck. The US it's bringing its war on terrorism logic to the Western Hemisphere. It's claiming that it's fighting narco terrorism, and it's claiming that these boats are, for the most part, carrying Venezuelan nationals coming out of Venezuela. We've heard from Colombia that one Colombian national has been killed. The two people who were detained were Ecuadorian and Colombian. Two Trinidadian or Trinidad and Tobago nationals have been killed as well. And this has sparked something of a. Well, it was a war of words. Now it seems to be a war of more than that, like tariffs and sanctions. And I believe Colombia has withdrawn their diplomats from D.C. as of today or yesterday. So it sparked significant political turmoil in the Western Hemisphere. I think we have a really good panel to talk about that. So to begin with, I guess we should start. Michael, can you explain the accusation here? Right. Is that these people are members of Trend or potentially some other cartels that the Trump administration likes to talk about. We've talked about the prevalence of those groups, but can you explain very briefly what they are and I suppose the function that they have in Venezuela or what they're doing there versus what's being claimed that they're doing?

[Michael Palberg]

Sure. I do research on organized crime in Latin America, and Reinde Aragua is a real organized criminal group in Venezuela and now all over Latin America. It is a street gang that started out as a prison gang. It does not primarily engage in international drug trafficking, moving large quantities of drugs across national borders or across oceans. It is primarily engaged in human trafficking and extortion rackets. And it primarily follows the Venezuelan diaspora, people who have left Venezuela. And at this point, it's an incredible 20% of the population over the last 10 years of Maduro's presidency. So nearly 8 million people wherever they go. And they, they take advantage of them. They extort them for money. They will also take money to move them across borders. But they're not a cartel in the way that we traditionally think about cartels like the Sinalo cartel or some of the Colombian cartels that are engaged in international cocaine trafficking. And so it's highly unlikely that if the Trump administration is striking boats that they claim to be vessels transporting cocaine or fentanyl, which is not made in Venezuela, it's primarily made in Mexico using precursor chemicals from China, and increasingly is actually made in the United States. Given that it's a tireless synthetic drug, that's possible. And Venezuela, of course, is not one of the countries where coca is grown and therefore cocaine comes from. If they are indeed striking drug boats, then they probably wouldn't be Trinidad. And if they're striking boats with Trinidad agua, they would be most likely striking migrant smuggling vessels, in which case the death count would likely be much higher.

[Host]

Yeah, yeah. So we should talk about the other Caribbean nations now, I guess want to talk about Trinidad and Tobago, but we should probably cover Colombia first. Right. Because we've seen significant pushback from Petro, President of Colombia, and then we've recently seen the President of the United States accuse Petro, who is again President of Colombia, of being a drug trafficker himself, which is fairly ludicrous claim on the face of it. But let's talk about Petro because he has some, some background in opposition to organized crime and drug smuggling, actually. Right. Like, he's, he's been in this for a while. Can you explain a little bit of his career and then his recent stances?

[Michael Palberg]

Yeah. So Petro is a mercurial figure in Colombian politics, has been for a long time. He is known for starting his career as a guerrilla with a minor anti government guerrilla movement called the M19 movement. Now, this is the movement which I don't know, maybe Western audiences are familiar with from the Netflix series Narcos, for having participated, carried out the palace of justice siege at the Colombian Supreme Court, which was a major disaster in which the Colombian military went in guns blazing to rescue hostages, Supreme Court justices and other people just employed in the palace of Justice. And most everyone died in a fire as a result. Petra was not involved in that operation. As far as anyone knows, he was not involved in innate violent confrontations. And this organization, unlike the FARC and the eln, never really got on the cocaine money train and therefore didn't last as long as those other organizations did. They did demobilize. They did turned to peaceful politics. And Petro began his political career at the local level, Mayor of Bogota, and then eventually reached the presidency. So he is someone with a long political career and does have a constituency, does have a base. And he is the first truly left wing leader of Colombia, a country that has been famously both ruled by the right and also very closely allied to the US. It's really the US's top ally in Latin America. Well, in South America, at least specifically on security given Plan Colombia and a long history of the US giving as much as $10 billion over time to beef up Colombia's counterinsurgency and counter narcotics fights on our behalf.

[Host]

Yet to accuse the President of being a drug crafter is fairly ludicrous. Like he's been like even in his time as a senator. Right. He was like, I think he was chairing some investigations or committees that looked at drug smuggling, if I remember correctly. Yeah.

[Michael Palberg]

And so I would say Petro has been very critical of the war on drugs approach generally, but he does still inherit this long standing deep relationship with the United States. And he's not exactly a full on peacenik when it comes to his own internal security. He did come it off as promising what he called total peace, a platform that was meant to put an end to all armed insurgencies in the country by making a deal with the remaining combatant groups, namely the eln, the dissident BAR guerrillas, those who did not agree to the peace deal signed by Santos in 2016 and what's in different terms called the Clan Del Golfo or the agc, the Guy Thomas Self Defense Forces, but one of the largest national narco paramilitary group that descends from the old auc. And he has failed in that. And talks have broken off with those other armed groups. Colombia has kind of gone back to war against them. The ELN has engaged in some pretty horrific violence, including a suicide car bombing or police barracks and the distant FARC as well, taking down a, a helicopter and a drone attack. So there has been a return to fairly high level, you know, armed insurgency in, in Colombia, even if it's nowhere near the level it was from the late 90s and early 2000s.

[Host]

Right? Yeah. And all of this is happening in the Caribbean, which is not a, not a Vast ocean.

[Michael Palberg]

Right.

[Host]

Like, it's not a massive area of space. And as Andrew and I were talking about before we recorded, this has impacted other Caribbean nations, nations which, like, are not the target of the Trump administration's aggression, but nonetheless are being subjected to it. Do you want to talk, Andrew? Trinidad and Tobago is in a particularly. I don't know if interesting is the right word. It's not a great situation. Right. Because Trinidadian people are being killed, at least two. And the government is apparently completely unconcerned with this.

[Andrew]

Yes, I suppose I should provide some context. So there have been seven strikes to date, and the fifth strike resulted in the deaths of two fishermen from the village of Las Cuevas in Turran, Tobago, being claimed among the victims. The government of Trinidad has not made a statement about it, and the families have not really been contacted or provided any sort of support. Now, for those who are listening, who may not know where Trinidad and Tobago is, it is an independent twin island republic in the Caribbean, and it's actually geographically an extension of South America. There's a gulf that separates it, but it's about 11 kilometers away from Venezuela itself. And our elections that took place this year led to the removal of the incumbent party and the return of the United National Congress, the political party led by Kamala Passad, possessor, claiming the government in a sweep, a landslide, really. But despite that landslide, it wasn't really the result of popular support for the United National Congress. It was more so the lack of support for the previous party, the People's National Movement, which lost, I believe 200,000 or so of their usual voters, just didn't show up to vote for them this election. So the opposition party came into power when the opposition party was in the opposition. They in many ways appeared to just oppose for opposing sake. They were in power previously from 2010 to 2015, but they were voted out due to, among other things, corruption. And since then, the party has further evolved into a sort of personality cult centered around Kamalpasad Recessa. And her politics have also evolved in that time to align further and further toward the United States position. She's become something of a Trump, Stan. You know, she was kind of toeing his line on a lot of issues. She supported Guaido, Juan Guaido, as the president of Venezuela and actually went so far, while she was an opposition leader, to call on the United States to sanction Trinidad and Tobago after the vice president of Venezuela had made a visit to the country to meet with the then Prime Minister, Keith Rowley. So she has made her pro Washington stance clear for a very long time. And as she's come into power, she has diverted our alignment with our regional bloc, the Caribbean community, caricom, and their call for the Caribbean to remain a zone of peace. And emphasized her continued endorsement for the US military's deployment outside of Venezuela's territorial waters. But still very much belligerent in her approach to this issue. You know, we have gone from a state that was respected as a non aligned entity, that was able to approach various diplomatic partners from the US to China to the EU to India to Venezuela as well. And we've gone from that sort of diplomatic approach to a very clear pro west stance that has really alienated us from the rest of the region and really placed us almost in the position of being a satellite state for US policy. You know, she's been inviting the US military, if they want to base their operations out of Trinidad. She has opened our doors to that. She has called for the US to kill them all violently, extrajudicially, and stated that she is perfectly aligned with what the US is doing in the region, despite its flagrant violations of international law.

[Host]

Yeah, as you said earlier, the them in this instance includes at least two of her own citizens.

[Michael Palberg]

Yeah.

[Andrew]

And I will say that this sort of zone of peace designation for the Caribbean, it is something that I would, this is my personal opinion, consider more of a hopeful ideal rather than a reality. You know, the trafficking that takes place in the region does visit a lot of violence upon people, is by no means in reality a zone of peace. Even before the US's actions in the region. However, though we may not fit that postcard perfect perception of tropical paradise, it is still necessary, I think, for us to stand in solidarity as a region, to speak with one voice when it comes to these issues. Especially as our continued existence depends on the observation of international law, the respect for the UN Charter. As small islands, our safety is really in numbers. And for the Prime Minister to deviate from that solidarity in such a blatant way, it's really quite sad. But it shouldn't come as a surprise because there have been efforts by the US to divide Caricom in the past. During his first term, Trump had pulled some Caricom countries into the Lima Group, which was a US promoted coalition of right wing governments that was pushing for regime change in Venezuela. And he's now doing the same thing with trying to get some CARICOM governments to facilitate his actions toward Venezuela. They approached Grenada recently to try and get Grenada's assistance in basing a satellite there on the island. And it's really ironic that they would approach Grenada, which is also quite close to Venezuela, because Grenada was famously one of the countries that the United States invaded in October of 1983.

[Host]

Yeah, I think I know I say this a lot, but if you've listened to the song Washington Bullets by the Clash and then you go to the border, you can kind join up all the people from all the countries mentioned there and the outcome of US policy and what that does to migration over time.

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[Sophia]

I live below a cult leader and I fear I've angered her.

[Dakota]

Well, wait a minute, Sophia. How do you know she's a cult leader?

[Sophia]

Well, Dakota, luckily it's I'm Not Afraid of a Scary Story week on the OK Storytime podcast, so you'll find out soon. This person writes, my neighbor's been blasting music every day and doing dirt rituals and now my ceiling is collapsing. I tried to report them, but things keep getting weirder. I think they may be part of a cult.

[Dakota]

Hold up, Sophia. A real life cult? And what is a dirt ritual?

[Michael Palberg]

No clue.

[Sophia]

But according to this person, contractors are tearing down the patio to find out what's going on with her ceiling and her neighbors are not happy.

[Dakota]

Well, she needs to report them asap.

[Sophia]

She did. And now they've been confronting her in really creepy ways all the time.

[Dakota]

So do we find out if this person survives their neighborhood cult or not?

[Sophia]

To hear the explosive finale, listen to the OK Storytime podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Michael Palberg]

All I know is what I've been told.

[Andrew]

And that's a half truth is a whole lie.

[Maggie Freeling]

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[Michael Palberg]

I'm telling you, we know Quincy killed her.

[Maggie Freeling]

We know a story that law enforcement used to convict six people and that got the citizen investigator on national tv.

[Host]

Through sheer persistence and nerve, this Kentucky housewife helped give justice to Jessica Curran.

[Maggie Freeling]

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[Michael Palberg]

I did not know her and I did not kill her or rape or burn or any of that other stuff that y' all said.

[Maggie Freeling]

They literally made me say that I took a match and struck and threw it on her. They made me say that I poured.

[Michael Palberg]

Gas on her.

[Maggie Freeling]

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[Host]

We should talk about the Venezuelan opposition, I guess. Michael, would you give. I've done a pretty in depth discussion of Venezuela, a place where I have spent a decent amount of time. Like I wanted to see that revolution myself when I was like 19 and I was, you know, studying political science. I wanted to see what this, this like Pink Tide was about. And I have reported a lot on Venezuelan migrants, people who are new to the show. I guess the series I did from the Darien Gap would be where I would point you for my discussion of Venezuelan, Venezuelan people. I still speak to people of Venezuel almost every day, but I think people could do Michael, with like a, like a, a high level overview of the Venezuelan opposition. I guess we can talk about the Nobel Prize as well. Which despite what Donald Trump is saying, was not awarded to him this year.

[Michael Palberg]

Yeah. So the big news is that Maria Corinne Machado, who is the leader of the Venezuelan opposition as we, as we know it today, was awarded the Nobel Prize, which was a bit of a surprise. And from a very US centric analysis, one idea that has been floated is that the Nobel Committee didn't want to award Trump the prize, but thought that maybe awarding it to an ally of Trump would be a way to mollify Trump also, possibly to encourage him to take a more peaceful approach at a time that the US Is threatening armed intervention in some way in Venezuela, whether that is a counter narcotics operation or more likely a regime change operation of some kind, even though it's very unclear how they would get to regime change from blowing up boats or even blowing up people.

[Host]

Maybe we should pause and talk about regime change, actually, because I like. It's such a problematic idea.

[Andrew]

Right.

[Host]

We have attempted regime changes. My career for the last several years has been reporting on the United States failed attempts to, to facilitate regime change all over the world.

[Michael Palberg]

Right.

[Host]

Like, it's not something we're very good at. I don't think that the United States is going to invade. Maybe you think differently, but I think we probably agree that the United States is unlikely to do like an Iraq style invasion of Venezuela. Could you explain, like, why? I suppose just, just for people who, who, you know, think that the. That's what's happening in the Caribbean at the moment with this concentration of forces?

[Michael Palberg]

Well, it's unlikely to happen because Venezuela is a very large country and it would take a lot more troops than what are currently deployed, which is approaching 10,000 now. But that's actually, that includes all sorts of logistical support. The actual fighting force, the Marine Expeditionary Unit is actually much smaller. I lived in Panama as a kid and I was not old enough to be there for the invasion, but I lived there some years after that. That's probably the closest analog to this, at least the way that the Trump administration is promoting this, which is to say a regime change operation that is disguised as a counternarcotics operation. Famously, Noriega was. It was not a war. It was an arrest of a foreign leader who was indeed involved in drug trafficking. And we knew that because he was literally a CIA asset whose drug trafficking was being protected as long as he was allied with the US Against Cuban backed rebel groups in Central America. But at some point later, he became too much of embarrassment for the US was genuinely a brutal guy, pulled off the torture, murder of Hugo Sparapura. All sorts of nasty things. But the big difference is at that time and when I lived there, the US had multiple military bases in Panama. Panama was the headquarters of the U.S. southern Command, Western Hemisphere headquarters of the pentagon. We had 13,000 troops already there, ready to go. I think they doubled that for the invasion, which was officially termed Operation Just Cause, originally called Operation Blue Spoon, but they had to come up with a sexier name. And of course, Panama is a tiny country and Venezuela is 20 times larger than Panama.

[Host]

Yeah, it's fast, so it's very odd.

[Michael Palberg]

It's obviously they have deployed many more troops in a much larger fleet than is necessary for a counternarcotics operation. Incidentally, it's the US Coast Guard that carries out counternarcotics interdictions and does it very effectively. And incidentally does it with the cooperation of other countries which coordinate intelligence or just simply surveillance of suspicious ships or boats or planes and tip off the US Coast Guard. Even the Cuban government does that. In fact, it's the Coast Guard that is the US Agency that has the, the best relationships with Cuba. It's oftentimes diplomacy kind of starts with, with the Coast Guard's ties with Cuba. But anyway, that aside, it doesn't make sense from a counternarcotics standpoint because look, if you actually wanted to break up a cartel, what do you do? I mean, if you are a prosecutor investigator, right, you capture the smugglers, you seize the cargo, the contraband, which is evidence, then you try to flip them up for immunity for whoever your real targets are. Maybe your target is Maduro or someone else in the regime, but you can't do that when you kill everyone on the boat, right? And I think the fact that in, I think the latest boat strike, they didn't manage to kill everyone and a couple of them got away, and then the US Rather than charge them with a crime, they just turned them back around. And you would think that if the US Is so certain that the people on those boats are drug trafficking terrorists that they want to kill them, then you'd think they would have enough evidence to charge them to prosecute them, but apparently not. So this is all to say the idea that this is a counternarcotics operation doesn't hold up. Clearly it is meant to be more of a regime change operation. But again, I don't see how the one leads to the other. I believe that Trump thinks that if he just saber rattles a little bit and possibly tries some decapitation strikes the way that the US did on Soleimani in Iran that somehow the regime is going to collapse. And that does not make any sense. Maduro has surrounded himself with security, a lot of it, including Recubin advisors. He keeps his whereabouts very secret. Even if somehow they were to drone strike him, it's not as if the regime as a whole would fall because it is an extremely militarized regime that is upheld by the armed forces who are not going to break with him because they have a hand in every lucrative business, both legal and illegal in Venezuela. They're not going to be paid off or not be swayed by a bounty that is currently, what, something like $50 million? I mean, there are people around Maduro that have made upwards of a billion dollars in oil rents. So it's not like you can pay off people to betray him either.

[Host]

Yeah, and it's not, nor is it like a cult of personality situation, like certainly not now. Chavez had something of a sort of charismatic leadership role, but Maduro is not that. So let's talk about the opposition in Venezuela in so much as, like, I guess if we go back to the election last year, right, that start with the election and explain to people what happened there and the subsequent sort of avenues that are now open or the avenues that that opposition is now exploring, if that's okay.

[Michael Palberg]

There was an election, quote, unquote, that took place last year. It was brokered largely by the us. The US under the Biden administration was pushing for some kind of negotiations between the opposition, the Venezuelan government. They convinced enough people in the opposition to stand for elections under what was called the Barbados Agreement in 2023. And this was meant to be an exchange of partial lifting of the sectoral sanctions that have been in place on, on Venezuela for a long time, in which the Trump administration, the first Trump administration, really tightened in exchange for the Maduro government agreeing to stand for elections. And those elections happened last year. It was pretty clear from pre electoral surveys and from exit polls and from the vote returns that were coming in at the time that the opposition Canada was going to win by an enormous March, about a 35 point margin. The candidate was officially Edmundo Gonzalez, but he was candidates mostly because Maria Cornell Machado, the now Nobel Prize laureate, was barred from running. So she gave her blessing to Gonzalez to be basically her proxy and people were more or less voting for both of them, so to speak, but both he and her are much more popular. Maduro, who by all accounts is an extremely unpopular leader, especially in contrast to, as you said, Hugo Chavez, who for all his faults was a Genuinely charismatic leader. And, you know, he did stand for elections and win them, you know, pretty convincingly. Incidentally, the price of oil was about $100 a barrel when he was president and he was able to spend a lot on social programs. But that aside, yeah, that helps. Maduro is pretty, pretty unpopular at this point. He is pretty widely seen as both a tyrant and also quite incompetent at managing basic state services. So he was going to lose unless he stole the election, which he did. The cne, the Venezuelan Election Board, announced that he had won with just 51% of the vote, which is, I have to say, I give him credit for being subtle. I expected them announced that he had won with like 99% of the vote.

[Host]

Yeah. At a sad margin.

[Michael Palberg]

Yeah, yeah. No one believed it. And I have to say one of my critiques of the Biden administration is that I think the whole thing was rather naive. I think they calculated that somehow Maduro would let himself be voted out of office. Maduro is. He talked about under a bounty, has a bounty on his head. Many people in the us, politics in the us, Republicans particular, have promised that they're going to send him to jail. So why would someone in that position give up power? I think he saw what happened to Gaddafi and he doesn't want to be jailed or killed. And at the same time, the stick part of the carrot and stick mechanism was that they would simply go back to the sanctions that existed before, which was called a snapback. And these are sanctions that the Venezuelan government has weathered for many, many years. So it's not really that much of a disincentive. So anyway, everyone basically admits at this point that he stole the election, but what are you going to do about it? The opposition, for its part, has taken different approaches to how to confront him and is famously very divided. The Venezuelan opposition has never really been on the same page. They've never really had an uncontested leader. Maria Cornelia Machado is about the closest they have had, but she herself really represents more one wing of the opposition. The more, you might say, hardline wing. For a long time, there was a hardline wing personified by Lopez, and there was a more, I don't know if you call it soft line or liberal or just more willing to talk to the regime wing led by Cabriles, who ran against Maduro in the first election. And it's even within those factions there are competing personalities. A lot of it really is more personal than ideological. But Marie Corne Machado, she is on the right Politically, she styles herself after Margaret Thatcher. She is also, I will give her credit for this, a very good organizer. She has famously kind of gone into communities that have historically voted with the Chavista left and convinced many people to leave that coalition. And also to her credit, I would say she is a very brave person. She has remained in the country at a time that many most opposition leaders, including Amado Gonzalez, have fled the country.

[Host]

Yeah.

[Michael Palberg]

And she's been in hiding. She knows that the regime would arrest, if not kill her at its soonest opportunity, yet she still shows up unannounced at events, at rallies, and. And makes speeches. So she has achieved this kind of mythic figure. And this is something that obviously is only going to. To grow with the Nobel Prize. So then the question is, what will this Nobel do? I think that one calculation is that it'll simply keep her alive. You know, it'll be much harder for the Maduro government to kill her if, you know, if they would be killing a Nobel laureate. So that may buy her a little bit more time.

[Host]

Hunter. And Myanmar is trying to try to best them on the first one to kill a Nobel laureate, I guess.

[Michael Palberg]

Right, Right. Yeah. But, you know, will it bring peace? I'm not so sure, because Mary Cordo Machado has also been very closely allied and supportive of the Trump administration. And her side of the opposition has been encouraging the military strikes, backing sanctions, even though the sanctions both have done nothing to dislodge Maduro and also contribute to a great deal of suffering for the Venezuelan people. And I have to say, look, I'm not Venezuelan. I have no right to give the Venezuelan opposition advice. I would say that if they have tried multiple elections, you know, at least two of which have been stolen, if they have tried, you know, you might say, more democratic means, and nothing has happened, I can understand why many people would think that a more radical approach is the only option left on the table. However, that approach hasn't done anything either. You know, sanctions have not dislodged Maduro. Blowing up boats of possible drug traffickers, maybe just fishermen, has not done anything. I think that nothing appears likely to lead to regime change. But I can understand the desperation of people living under what is broadly acknowledged to be an extremely repressive regime.

[Host]

Yeah. And just the grinding poverty of everyday life in Venezuela is so, like, I've heard so many stories from so many people of such a difficult existence there. I can. I can understand people's desperation.

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[Sophia]

I live below a cult leader and I fear I've angered her.

[Dakota]

Well, wait a minute, Sophia. How do you know she's a cult leader?

[Sophia]

Well, Dakota, luckily it's I'm Not Afraid of a Scary Story week on the okay Storytime Podcast, so you'll find out soon. This person writes, my neighbor has been blasting music every day and doing dirt rituals and now my ceiling is collapsing. I try to report them, but things keep getting weirder. I think they may be part of a cult.

[Dakota]

Hold up, Sophia. A real life cult? And what is a dirt ritual?

[Michael Palberg]

No clue.

[Sophia]

But according to this person, contractors are tearing down the patio to find out what's going on with her ceiling and her neighbors are not happy.

[Dakota]

Well, she needs to report them asap.

[Sophia]

She did, and now they've been confronting her in really creepy ways all the time.

[Dakota]

So do we find out if this person survives their neighborhood cult or not?

[Sophia]

To hear the explosive finale, listen to the OK Storytime podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Michael Palberg]

All I know is what I've been.

[Andrew]

Told, and that's a half truth is a whole lie.

[Maggie Freeling]

For almost a decade, the murder of an 18 year old girl from a small town in Graves County, Kentucky, went unsolved until a local homemaker, a journalist, and a handful of girls came forward with a story.

[Michael Palberg]

I'm telling you, we know Quincy killed her.

[Maggie Freeling]

We know a story that law enforcement used to convict six people and that got the citizen investigator on national tv.

[Host]

Through sheer persistence and nerve, this Kentucky housewife helped give justice to Jessica Curran.

[Maggie Freeling]

My name is Maggie Freeling. I'm a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist producer, and I wouldn't be here if the truth were that easy to find.

[Michael Palberg]

I did not know her and I did not kill her or rape or burn or any of that other stuff that y' all said.

[Maggie Freeling]

They literally made me say that I took a match and struck and threw it on her. They made me say that I poured.

[Michael Palberg]

Gas on her.

[Maggie Freeling]

From Lava for good. This is Graves County, a show about just how far our legal system will go in order to find someone to blame.

[Host]

America, y' all better wake the hell up. Bad things happens to good people and small towns.

[Maggie Freeling]

Listen to Graves county in the Bone Valley feed on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And to binge the entire season ad free. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcasts.

[Host]

Andrew, you know, it's spoken about like the. The gulf between the government of Trinidad and Tobago and the people of Trinidad and Tobago right now. And obviously the same is true in Venezuela, right? Like, it's not. It's not the opposition figures living in Spain who suffer when we have these sanctions, right? It's not opposition candidates who get blown up when they go fishing. It's regular working class Venezuelan people. So do you want to talk about, like, I'm not even sure what we can do in. By way of solidarity with either of these nations, but maybe you have some thoughts on that?

[Andrew]

I'm honestly at something of a loss myself. Speaking from a small island, I think the US's superpower status is almost akin to an Eldritch horror. It feels like it's unfathomable how you could even go about approaching that at times. You know, I try to remind myself that people have fought and won. You know, people have resisted and won. You know, currently there isn't that much going on. There are murmurs. There are murmurs of fear, of disdain, of disagreement, of distrust in terms of grassroots effort. There's a lot still to be done. The leader of the Movement for Social justice, which is a small, progressive political party in Toronto and Tobago, it's a guy named David Abdullah, and he has been part of this assembly of Caribbean people who have been signing and issuing a declaration reasserting our desire for peace. And that has been signed by various progressive organizations, social movements and figures across the Caribbean. And there was also an effort last week, Thursday, that's October 16th, to organize a region wide day of action in defense of the Caribbean. And so different actions were taking place all over in 15 countries. We had press conferences, we had statements, and we had pickets at certain US embassies and public demonstrations. It was kind of in the middle of the day on a Thursday, so there wasn't that big of a turnout from what I saw when I had gone. But it shows that there is. And from the at least anecdotal experience, there is a desire to keep the US out of the situation. You know, despite the issues with the Venezuelan government, despite the issues with our own government, we don't want intervention, you know, and right now all we can really levy, is our voices, you know, our words. And all we can really do, I think besides protest, what is going on is prepare for the worst to ensure that we have, you know, certain support systems in place in case, you know, push comes to shove.

[Host]

Yeah, that's pretty bleak. Michael, do you have anything to add on, like how people can be in solidarity with the people of Venezuela currently?

[Michael Palberg]

Well, I been calling for people broadly throughout the world to have solidarity more with people than with states and certainly with the Venezuelan people as opposed to the Venezuelan state. I wrote something for the center for International Policy about this. And listen, you know, it's not my place to police the left, so to speak, but you know, as someone speaking personally who comes from the labor movement, you know, comes from the Bernie Allied left, so to speak, you know, I do think it's been a little bit uncomfortable to observe how certain elements of the global left have, have stood up for the Maduro regime, or at the very least been. The criticism of it has been taboo. And I think a lot of that is a legacy of Chavez, Chavez having this strong personal charisma, but also that he was willing to confront the United States, the Bush administration, at a time of the Iraq War especially low point in the US's global reputation. Also Venezuela's oil rents at the time, which were financing a lot of, not just social programs in Venezuela, but a lot of financial largesse to allied states and movements around, around the region. So a lot of left parties kind of reflexively defended Maduro even as his repression and mismanagement just ramped up. I will say that's fading. You Know, we were seeing this within Latin America. First of all, there's kind of a generational divide. And some of the older generation Latin American left, like Lula or like Petro, have not been overwhelmingly anti Maduro, but have expressed skepticism about the electoral results. But then there's a younger generation, such as Boric, Chile. Chile, and are in Guatemala, who have been openly very critical of Maduro and want to just not let him or his camp, so to speak, define what it means to be on the left. And really, the only countries that have unquestionably backed him at this point are Bolivia and Cuba, but also outside of the region, Russia, Iran, China. So I think that we should ask ourselves, like, who do we think is a more credible arbiter of progressive values? Is it origin Chile or is it Putin? You know, even without even the Communist Party of Venezuela no longer.

[Host]

Yeah, yeah, that's one of my favorite facts.

[Michael Palberg]

You know, like, he has. He has had their, their militants killed, you know, allegedly as well. So it's just, it's not helpful to view the world in this campus lens. You know, I think that if people, whether they identify as on the left or, or whatever, want to show solidarity, I think it should be with the Venezuelan people, which means listening to voices within civil society. In Venezuela, there are a lot of NGOs, there are a lot of labor unions, there are a lot of human rights advocates that are not opposition parties that are not running for office. They're not necessarily calling for regime change. Many of them very critical of sanctions, but they have tried to push for better changes, quality of life reforms that might lead to less repression, open up more space for civil society. And those things are necessary when people are really living day by day. And I think that if people on the left want to play the long game and understand, care about the prospects of the future, they need to understand that the Maduro regime is the worst model for them to be associated with. And this has already been taking place with campaigns, electoral campaigns around Latin America, where candidates on the right run against the boogeyman of chavismo, of a Maduro model. And it makes sense. And a lot of people on the left are very skeptical of Maria Corneli Machado. I have skepticism about some of her policy platforms of privatization and other neoliberal ideas. They also shouldn't be surprised. If there's been a decade of people being told that this model of corruption, authoritarianism, state terror, criminal insecurity, that's what socialism is, then people are going to believe that, and then they're Going to, then they're vote against whatever that is. And this model has provoked the greatest refugee crisis certainly in the region. 8 million people. They're all carrying with them stories about why they left. Right. And so if there ever were to be democratic elections in Venezuela, it's pretty clear the country would turn to the right. And I don't think we should be surprised by that. You know, and I think we should also recognize that many of the things that Maduro embodies, these strong man politics are things that are embodied by other strong men, not just on the left too. You know, I would just point out that at least according to some, Trump has privately expressed a lot of admiration for Maduro. I read John Bolton's book and you know, the former national security advisor, you know, maybe he has a lot of reasons to lie, but, you know, he did say that Trump privately expressed a lot of admiration for Maduro being, in his words, too smart and too tough to be overthrown. You know, was, was really happy to see him by what he called all these good looking generals. He disparaged Juan Guaido. Calling him the Beto o' Rourke of Venezuela means, you know, so think that there is, there's something to be said about strong men recognizing strong men. And a lot of these authoritarian lessons are not limited to one side of the ideological spectrum.

[Host]

Yeah, definitely. I find that tendency on the American left, on the sort of Internet left, to be massively frustrating. Like as someone who, who went there to see the revolution, who like went there to understand it, and who spent masses of time with Venezuelan people in the Darien Gap, in, at the border in Venezuela. Like, I'm very fond of Venezuelan people and I think, yeah, our solidarity should be with them, not with some strong man state. We saw this in, in Syria as well. Right. Like, it is heartbreaking, genuinely heartbreaking to explain to people how someone who identifies as a leftist is also denying that their children were gassed by chemical weapons in Syria. Right. This campus gray zone tendency on the American left specifically is incredibly toxic. And anybody who seriously considers themselves to be a leftist is massively undermining any credibility they have when they associate themselves with regimes which willingly murder their own people. I would like to see people stop doing that. Perhaps both of you could finish up by suggesting U.S. coverage of this has not been great. Right. It tends to focus on the United States very much and Venezuela kind of appears as a monolithic entity. Trinidad and Tobago rarely gets any coverage in the US Media. I did see, I think Reuters or AP had done a piece about how fishermen are reluctant to go out. I would like to see more of that kind of reporting. Perhaps both of you could suggest a couple of sources where people could read about this.

[Andrew]

Sure. At least on my end, I suggest looking into our local news. Now, it's not the best source in terms of actual interrogation of the issues and the ways in which the. Some of the narratives just kind of get repeated uncritically. But you do get at least the occasional interview, the occasional quote from a non US State Department source. I would also suggest on Instagram there are a couple pages that bring a more radical, progressive voice from the Caribbean. There's a page called Vintage Caribbean and there's another page called Trinbago for Palestine. And both of those have been doing a lot of coverage on this particular incident lately. So you can look to those as well if you want to get a sort of a grassroots take on the situation.

[Michael Palberg]

Yeah, I don't really have any. Go to sources on this. I would say that it's enough of an international incident that all the major news sources are covering it. So you can read really any news source in Latin America if you speak Spanish, Portuguese, and see how that recording is different. Also, incidentally, El Pais in Spain, you know, colonosomic side, they do pretty good reporting. Yeah. And they've been doing pretty good reporting. And there's lots of blogs as well and, you know, newsletters that you can check out. I will say just made this unboxed because I focus a lot on crime. The site Insight Crime is pretty good in terms of looking into specific criminal groups like Renderagua and calling to question if, you know, if this really is something that is controlled by the puppet master from Miraflores like Maduro and some of these narratives that are justifying this. I'd also, just as a recommendation, I would say maybe we should be a little bit skeptical too, about the timing and the purposes of these things. I did point out in the piece that I wrote for the center for International Policy that the first boat strike happened on the same day the House Judiciary Committee was releasing a redacted number of files related to the Jeffrey Epstein case. And I think that there are many reasons why this administration would like to use this confrontation as a convenient distraction from. From other things that they would rather not be talking about.

[Host]

Yeah, leak. I think it's probably a reasonable conclusion given where we're at. Where can people find both of you on if they want to follow you online on. On social media or find more of your writing? We'll start with you Andrew.

[Andrew]

Sure. Well, you can find me on my YouTube channel, YouTube.com andrezone or you can just go to my website for all my other links, andrewsage.org how about you, Michael?

[Michael Palberg]

I do have a website. You can look up my name and that should come up. I haven't updated it recently. I probably should. I'm also on Twitter X bluesky as my name, M P A A R L B E R G. So you can look me up there.

[Host]

Great. Thank you very much. Bethu.

[Maggie Freeling]

It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, Visit our website coolzonemedia.com or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can now find sources for It Could Happen here listed directly in Episode Descriptions. Thanks for listening.

[Host]

This is an iHeart podcast.