Executive Disorder: FEMA Teleportation, Pam Bondi Fired, Iran Ceasefire?

Summary

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It Could Happen Here

Episode: Executive Disorder: FEMA Teleportation, Pam Bondi Fired, Iran Ceasefire?
Date: April 10, 2026
Host(s): Garrison Davis, James Stout, Robert Evans, Mia Wong

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Episode Overview

This episode of "It Could Happen Here" covers the week of April 1–8, 2026—an intense seven days in U.S. and world politics. The roundtable tackles the ongoing DHS shutdown, Republican infighting on immigration, the rise of prediction markets in political media, the strange saga of a FEMA official’s alleged “teleportation” episode, seismic developments in U.S.–Iran conflict and diplomacy, and major shakeups in U.S. electoral politics. They also detail a crackdown on press freedom, analyze Trump’s tariff threats, and dissect notable administrative firings, closing on a rare note of (qualified) hope from the country’s electoral backlash to the GOP.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The DHS Shutdown and Prediction Markets in News

• DHS Shutdown: The Department of Homeland Security has been unfunded for over 50 days. A Senate deal to fund DHS (excluding ICE and CBP) awaits action after Congress’s recess.
• Political Gambling: Major news orgs, including Fox, CNN, CNBC, and AP, are now incorporating prediction market data (from Kalshi) into coverage—a move the hosts see as turning politics into "a corrupt casino."
  • Quote: "It's just gambling." — Robert Evans [03:47]
  • Concerns aired over accountability and the manipulation of “odds,” comparing political prediction bets to vibes-based sports gambling.

2. Grassroots Rebellion and Data Center Backlash

• Dallas poll: 76% of TX Democratic primary voters say Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, 80% support ending weapons funding.
• Indianapolis City Council shooting incident: After a controversial $500 million data center approval, gunshots are fired at a councilor's home with a "no data centers" note left—symptomatic of massive public local backlash.
  • Mia Wong: "These data centers are really staggeringly unpopular... this kind of stuff is just going to continue as these data centers continue to be built." [06:32]

3. Trump, NATO, and International Geopolitics

• Trump is set to discuss U.S. withdrawal from NATO, signaling an epochal shift in global power alignments—a moment the hosts describe as seismic and unprecedented.
  • "If this happens, it would be utterly epochal..." — Mia Wong [07:26]

4. Immigration: Dignity Act and Republican Splits

• Rep. Brandon Gill’s criticism of the Dignity Act: This bipartisan proposal would create a permanent “sub-citizen” class without a pathway to citizenship.
  • James: "It is not a progressive immigration reform... It creates like a sub citizen class. It’s bad." [08:18]
• ICE shootings: Further incidents in CA illustrate ongoing DHS abuses and misinformation/public relations battles about suspects’ criminal backgrounds.

5. FEMA Teleportation: A Viral Scandal

• Greg Phillips, a high-ranking FEMA official, claims to have teleported (while driving) to a Waffle House in Rome, Georgia—later clarified he was under heavy medication for cancer treatment.
  • [Audio segment plays with Phillips’ claims at 12:06]
  • The hosts satirically entertain the idea, noting how such incidents are “downright believable” for Waffle House regulars.
  • Media, especially NYT, lampooned for expert-disagree headlines: “FEMA Official Says He Teleported to Waffle House. Experts Are Dubious.” [16:43]
  • Robert Evans: “Anyone who’s gone drunk to enough Waffle Houses knows that’s true.” [12:02]

6. Iran–US Tensions: Crashes, “Civilization Ending” Threats, and Ceasefire Chaos

A blow-by-blow breakdown of the week’s near-war events:

• Friday, April 4:
  • USAF F15E shot down over Iran, crew rescued via dangerous ops; Iran offers $60k reward for the capture.
  • Drones and helicopters damaged in the rescue, with possible civilian deaths in subsequent drone strikes, labeled “military age males.”
    • Mia Wong: “Military age male is like anyone…” [26:18]
• Easter Sunday: Special ops rescue remaining crew member, intricate misinformation operations involved.
• Trump’s Social Media Announcements
  • Threatened catastrophic strikes: "Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day all wrapped up in one in Iran... Open the fucking Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah." [28:42]
  • Confusion about authorship and tone of Trump’s posts—are they actually written by him or his staff?
• Tuesday, April 8: “Power Plant Day”
  • Heavy US strikes on Iranian targets, including intelligence buildings, bridges, factories; IRGC intelligence head killed; attacks on Carg Island.
    • James Stout: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” — quoting Trump [30:42]
    • Genocidal subtext and war crime accusations extensively debated.
• Ceasefire Negotiations
  • Iran’s 10-point plan: control of Strait, end to wider regional wars, US troop withdrawal, reparations, unfrozen assets.
  • A two-week ceasefire is agreed in principle, but Israel continues attacks (on Lebanon especially) and Iran continues to fire on “occupied territories.”
    • “Schrodinger’s Ceasefire”: State of the negotiations is ambiguous, with military activity ongoing on all sides.

7. Kurds, Civilian Casualties, and Surreal Presidential Messaging

• Iranian strikes kill Kurdish civilians; Trump’s public remarks suggest US-supplied arms to Kurdish factions, but facts on the ground cast doubts on logistics and credibility.
  • Media spectacle of Trump’s threats during Easter events and accusations of supplying Kurdish groups—hosts describe the scenes as Lynchian/absurdist.
  • James Stout: “This is one of the most incredible 30 seconds of video...” [43:22]
• Broader context: Both US and Iranian actions continue to devastate Kurdish civilians; the show highlights moral outrage at the US and left-liberal indifference.

8. Press Freedom Under Threat

• Trump’s DOJ threatens prosecution of journalists for reporting on the missing F15 crew, a chilling attack on First Amendment protections and investigative reporting.
  • James Stout: “This does represent quite a serious attack on the First Amendment. People are killing and dying over Iran and our tax dollars are supporting that. We have a right to know.” [51:10]

9. Tariffs & International Trade Sabre-Rattling

• Trump proclaims a new 50% tariff on all goods from any country supplying military weapons to Iran, regardless of existing law.
  • Mia Wong runs down the lack of clear legal authority for this—possible references to defunct or rarely used trade acts like Smoot-Hawley (“famously good, Smootie”).
  • General sense that this is, as Mia calls it, “Calvinball bullshit” and unlikely to stick. [58:21]
  • Fascinating “nightmare” market clip: CNBC pundits debate the "investment upsides" to potential genocide.
    • Robert Evans: "Big upside risk or downside risk to genocide? How do we... how do we do that?" [54:19]

10. Electoral Shifts: The GOP's Grim Week

• Major Democratic overperformance:
  • Wisconsin Supreme Court race: Dems win by 20 points, crushing polling expectations.
  • Moms for Liberty school board slates defeated en masse in conservative Waukesha County; Democrats even win the mayoralty.
  • In Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former (deep red) district, GOP margin collapses by 28 points.
  • Main takeaway: The conventional polling “baseline” from 2024 is obsolete—the electorate has transformed, with previously apolitical or disengaged voters now highly mobilized.
    • Robert Evans: “My hope is that this turns out to be one of their worst strategic missteps.” [62:11]
• Trump's approval rating at all-time lows (39%) even before the week's “civilization will die tonight” debacle.
  • Quote: “It's giving war crime.” — Georgia voter, encapsulating grassroots revulsion with Trump’s rhetoric [66:48]

11. Administrative Upheaval: Pam Bondi Fired

• On April Fool’s Day, Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi while riding to Supreme Court arguments.
  • Bondi’s removal sparks a legal scramble regarding her scheduled testimony on Epstein files; House Oversight insists she must appear despite her dismissal.
  • Lee Zeldin, former NY gubernatorial candidate and hard-right EPA chief with military/policing background, floated as possible replacement.
  • A shift in Trump’s management style: after a stable start to his second term, the firing of Bondi (and earlier, Kristi Noem) signals a return to Trump’s "musical chairs" approach to high-level roles.
  • Names like Tulsi Gabbard, Kash Patel, and Pete Hegseth cited as possible next targets for dismissal.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the rise of prediction markets:

  • “It’s just mob sports betting.” — Mia Wong [04:25]
  • “It’s worse than sports betting because sports betting is actually based on, like, real odds.” — Garrison Davis [04:27]

• On data center backlash:

  • “It’s old school environmental NIMBYism, anti AI sentiment in general. They’re hideously unpopular.” — Mia Wong [06:51]

• On the F15 rescue and “military age male” terminology:

  • “It’s one of the most sickening terms US Warfare has invented.” — Mia Wong [26:18]

• Regarding Trump’s civilizational threats:

  • “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” — Trump, read by James Stout [30:42]
  • Mia Wong: “That is… a threat of genocide.” [31:55]
  • Robert Evans: “This is a guy who has the trigger for all the nukes saying he’s going to wipe out a civilization.” [33:28]

• On journalistic freedoms:

  • “This does represent quite a serious attack on the First Amendment… we have a right to know.” — James Stout [51:10]

• On CNBC analyzing genocide as market risk:

  • “Big upside risk or downside risk to genocide?” — Robert Evans [54:19]
  • “When inevitably in the course of humanity, they have to make a museum to explain to people what capitalism was, this is what they are going to show.” — Mia Wong [53:46]

• On electoral fluidity:

  • “The entire electorate has changed.” — Mia Wong [64:16]

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Important Segment Timestamps

• [02:47] Newscast begins: summary of week’s major stories
• [03:47-05:24] Prediction markets take over news coverage
• [06:28] Data center backlash and Indianapolis councilor shooting
• [07:08] Trump & NATO withdrawal speculation
• [08:18-10:53] Dignity Act, ICE shootings, Republican divisions
• [11:09-17:11] FEMA teleportation saga and media coverage
• [22:01-43:55] Chronology and analysis of US–Iran conflict, rescue fiasco, Trump’s threats, strike details, and ceasefire ambiguity
• [50:19-52:36] Threats to press freedom over leaked rescue info
• [53:32-58:21] Trump’s new tariff pronouncements—legality and impact, plus CNBC's “genocide as market risk” moment
• [58:53-66:28] Electoral developments: Dem strength, GOP wipeout, polling vs. reality
• [68:42-74:46] Bondi’s firing, legal wrangling re: Epstein files, speculation on further Trump administration shakeups

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Tone & Style

The episode maintains the show’s trademark blend of irreverent gallows humor, stark moral clarity, and exasperated media criticism. The hosts remain deeply skeptical of all parties in power, relying on wit and pop culture allusions (“Lynchian,” “Kafkaesque,” “It’s giving war crime”) to deflate the absurdity and horror of the news cycle, while grounding their analysis in history, statistics, and personal experience.

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Conclusion & Takeaways

• Trump’s maximalist threats and barely plausible tariff proclamations are reckless, but the hosts suspect much will be stymied in the courts or by institutional inertia—though enormous harm is still being wrought, especially to civilians in Iran and Kurdistan.
• GOP is facing a multi-front collapse in electoral politics—messaging, policy outcomes (especially on schools), and leadership crises.
• The media, prediction markets, and even cable finance news are increasingly part of the “collapse as spectacle.”
• Despite the bleakness, there’s evidence of dramatic popular mobilization and backlash against the GOP, signaling at least one avenue of resistance in the current American crisis.

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For listeners: This episode is an unflinching, darkly comic, and deeply informative snapshot of a week where the boundaries between reality, spectacle, and farce become ever more indistinct.

Transcript

[James Stout]

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[James Stout]

Cool Zone Media.

[Garrison Davis]

This is it could happen here. Executive Disorder, our weekly newscast covering what's happening in the White House, the crumbling world and what it means for you. I'm Garrison Davis. Today I'm joined by James Stout, Mia Wong and Robert Evans. This episode we are covering the week of April 1st to April 8th. The DHS shutdown has surpassed 50 days. Last week House Republicans tentatively agreed to the Senate deal to fund DHS without ICE and cbp. Though this agreement is stalled while Congress is out of session till April 14. Fox News has partnered with Kalshi to incorporate its political betting data into news coverage. Fox joins cnn, CNBC and the AP in entering into deal with the so called prediction market Kalshee. Kalshee announced quote, prediction markets add accountability by rewarding accuracy. That's why the three leading networks have chosen Kalshi. No spin, no partisan lens, just incentives to be right, unquote.

[Robert Evans]

It's just gambling.

[Mia Wong]

It's so cool that the whole world, all media is now just espn.

[Robert Evans]

Incentives to be right again, like people are. There's like one of the submarkets within Kalshi is people like bringing in lawyers to make threats over like tiny differences in grammar that invalidate them either losing money or mean that they should have won. The like, like none of this is about what actually happened. It's, it's becoming as much about what you can game or like threaten the news into not reporting. As we talked about the week before last with that case in Israel and insider trading. And insider trading.

[James Stout]

Yeah.

[Garrison Davis]

No, it's, it's just turning politics into like a corrupt casino.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah, yeah, it's just mob sports betting.

[Garrison Davis]

It's worse than sports betting because sports betting is actually based on like real odds. Right. These odds are completely created by users with their money. Like it's, it' completely manufactured. There's no actual basis for a lot of these bets. Right. Like, like the betting on like the Papal Conclave. There's no basis for an American Pope getting elected. Right. There's no actual odds that were like mathematically certain. It's just created through, through money.

[Mia Wong]

Well, to be fair, the sports odds are also just kind of made up by guys too. But like just a tiny bit.

[James Stout]

It's vibes based on like it's people looking at horses. Is a lot of what's happening in sports betting making, approving or disapproving? I think I saw that something close to a billion dollars was bet on oil prices as we approached Trump's deadline.

[Mia Wong]

We already had that. Just play the oil futures market. Too complicated for people, I guess. God damn it.

[Garrison Davis]

No, it's really bad. According to a March poll from the Institute for a Middle East Understanding Policy project, sampling almost 600 Texas Democratic primary voters, 76% say Israel is committing genocide in Gaza and 80% support ending weapons funding to Israel. 44% of Telarico voters said his criticism of Israel was important to them and swayed their vote over one in five voters. 22% said reducing support for Israel was one of their top three factors impacting their vote, while only 2% said the same about increasing or maintaining support for Israel. And 88% of voters said they agreed with a statement Talarico made during a primary debate about cutting off weapons to Israel. On Sunday night, 13 gunshots were fired into the front door of Indianapolis City County Councilor Ron Gibson, who just voted to approve a half a billion dollar data center. A note was left under the doormat that read no data centers, quote, unquote.

[Robert Evans]

Hmm.

[Garrison Davis]

Gibson and his son were home at the time of the shooting.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah, these data centers are really staggeringly unpopular. There's been a bunch of reporting on even the ones that are attempted to be built. Something like 50% of them are just not able to do it because of massive public local backlash, because it makes

[Robert Evans]

life worse around them. Power bills go up. They're loud.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah, it's like, it's like old school. It's like old school environmental NIMBYism. Sort of like, I don't want these assholes in my small town stuff. There's just like the anti AI sentiment in general. They're hideously unpopular. And this kind of stuff is just going to continue as these data centers continue to be built.

[James Stout]

Okay, time for me. So Donald Trump has said that he will discuss United States withdrawal from NATO. For those who work in the New York Times, that's a North Atlantic Treaty Organization with Mark Rutter, who is the NATO Secretary General, during their meeting, which will happen today, which is Wednesday, April

[Mia Wong]

8, if question mark this happens, it would be utterly epochal. Like, it would be one of the two things they're going to point out as like the dawning of the new era of.

[James Stout]

Yes. Seismic shift.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. Like what geopolitics is. This is like the fundamental bases of this in this week are like ceasing to exist.

[James Stout]

Yeah. Shelley Kittelson has been released by Katib Hezbollah after they made her read a Video confession in which she confessed. And to be very clear, this is very clearly extracted.

[Robert Evans]

Yeah, it's a co correct fashion. Yes.

[James Stout]

Nothing in this is true, but in the video they made her confess to passing information to U.S. consulate in Baghdad. In one point in the video, she said she had been collecting information on leaders but forgotten their names, which is very credible and true.

[Mia Wong]

Most real confession?

[James Stout]

Yeah, it's ludicrous. Her release came after Iraq released several Katib Hezbollah members. So seems like a straight swap, which is what this was about in the first place. Right. It's not about her or her work per se. It's about her being a trading chip that they can trade. Finally, Republican Brandon Gill has sharply criticized the Dignity Dignidad act recently. And this has become like something of an online discourse topic on the right. I'm not exactly sure why it's happening now. Rep. Salazar from Florida has tried to introduce this act several times in the last few years. We've actually covered it when it was introduced in 2025 on this show. It's a bipartisan act to reform the immigration system. That is bad. It creates what's called a dignity status, which is essentially like an underclass of people who. There is no pathway to citizenship. There is no pathway to voting, but it comes with the right to renew it and the right to residency. Right. So it creates like a sub citizen class. It's bad. It is not a progressive immigration reform.

[Garrison Davis]

But is Brandon Gill criticizing it from the right?

[James Stout]

Gill is coming from another perspective than I am. They think it gives incentives for illegal immigration and it's an amnesty.

[Garrison Davis]

Okay.

[James Stout]

Yeah.

[Garrison Davis]

So he's criticizing from the right.

[James Stout]

It's interesting to see the split among Republicans on this and that's why I wanted to bring it in. Right. We spoke last time about the Florida sheriff's breaking with with Trump on mass deportations. There are a number of things which indicate that there is clearly a faction of the Republican Party which has realized massive deportation of people who have not been accused or convicted of any crime is not a popular stance, especially when you keep killing people. On that note, actually ICE have shot somebody else. This broke relatively late on Tuesday night. They shot someone in Patterson, California. The person has been identified as Carlos Eva Mendoza Hernandez. He's wanted in El Salvador for questioning in connection to a murder. It is another of those incidents in which they accused a person of weaponizing their vehicle. And there is a dash cam video which has been released which shows a person attempting to leave in a vehicle. It's a little hard to tell if the person is attempting to weaponize their vehicle. But this doesn't look that way to me. It looks like that person is trying to. Trying to make an exit. We have seen a number of these. Right. Where federal immigration agents have shot people behind the wheel of their car.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah.

[James Stout]

I should add that his attorney claims that he is not wanted in connection with that murder and has provided a document from the government of El Salvador which seems to confirm that. So we have, once again, the DHS said versus what we seem to be seeing proved out by documents. Right.

[Garrison Davis]

Before we get to Iran, which there's a lot to discuss, there is another news story a little bit closer to us that we think deserves some fair coverage. Statements made on a podcast last year by a top FEMA official resurfaced this last week. Greg Phillips, who is in charge of disaster response, claims that he once teleported to a Waffle House in Rome, Georgia. Phillips also says he experienced a separate incident in which he teleported in front of a church. The fact that this was a Waffle House does lend the story a bit of credibility. I have suspected for years there's some sort of paranormal field around waffle Houses. Personally, I believe that when you walk into one, there is a small chance you could walk out of another in a separate location. The craft store Michaels has a similar energy to it.

[Robert Evans]

Look, anyone who's gone drunk to enough Waffle Houses knows that that's true.

[James Stout]

Right.

[Garrison Davis]

So there is an aspect of the story which is very believable, but there's some details that Phillips has included that makes me a bit more skeptical of his characterization of this Inc. Let's listen to his claim on this podcast right now. We had a teleport incident, two of

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them,

[Garrison Davis]

which, which transported me about 40 miles from.

[James Stout]

From where I was and, and near

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Albany, Georgia to the, to the ditch of a.

[Garrison Davis]

To the ditch of a. Of a church.

[James Stout]

I end up at a Waffle House like 50 miles away from where I was.

[Garrison Davis]

So to defend these statements, Phillips has taken to Truth Social to share biblical accounts of teleportation as supporting evidence of teleportation.

[Robert Evans]

Great.

[Garrison Davis]

Employees at the three Waffle Houses in Rome, Georgia were interviewed by the New York Times and they say they do not recall anyone being transported there by means of teleportation, nor did they recognize pictures of Greg Phillips. But in a follow up statement by Phillips on Truth Social, he said he was going through cancer treatment at the time of this alleged teleportation incident. Quote, I was healed of cancer and it was a miracle. The Podcast at the center of this controversy was part of chronicling that journey. And during that journey, things happened that I can't explain. I was in the opening days of intensive treatment, heavily medicated, not thinking about future headlines. That context was nowhere in the reporting, unquote. I think it is important here that he says he was heavily medicated during the time around.

[James Stout]

Yeah, I bet. I love how he uses cop voice like a teleportation incident.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. But however, I. I'm gonna point out that Garrison, the next thing you're about to read, he was not heavily medicated when he said this.

[Garrison Davis]

So, yeah, Phillips added to this truth, quote, the word teleportation was not mine. It was used by someone else in the conversation. Reaching for language describes something with no easy name, which is not true.

[Mia Wong]

He said teleport. He said teleport.

[Garrison Davis]

I think what he means is he didn't. Wasn't his like, initial term then started

[Mia Wong]

using it, I guess he keeps using it.

[Garrison Davis]

He. He continues, quote, the more accurate biblical terms are translated or transported, not new ideas for people of faith. If you believe that God moves in ways we cannot fully explain as I do, then having faith is not a sound bite. It is the whole point. I believe in miracles, all caps. God bless America. He is risen, unquote. Now, one detail from the podcast that has not been mentioned as much, I think offers to help some idea of what's. Of what's really going on here.

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It was an incredibly frightening moment to experience yourself in your car, flying through the air.

[James Stout]

It was possible. It was real. He was teleported in his car.

[Garrison Davis]

He was in his car. Which for me changes this entire thing because the way that these headlines were kind of imagined, as if his body like dematerialized somewhere, rematerialized in a Waffle House. Something that's, you know, certainly he just blacked out while driving, which is very different. Which is very different.

[James Stout]

Robert and I once saw a guy teleport in a car when we were driving around Texas.

[Robert Evans]

Yeah, I tell. I teleported on Xanax once about 30 hours into the future.

[Garrison Davis]

So the fact that he zoned out while driving and ended up at a Waffle House, much more, Much more explainable because many, many people in slightly. In slightly. All downright believable.

[Robert Evans]

Downright believable.

[Garrison Davis]

Outside of Waffle Houses in their car, this is a very common occurrence. This is probably about maybe 10 to 10 to 30% of the waffle House clientele shows up in this sort of environment where they are not operating on their full Faculties either through some sort of drugs, alcohol, medication, what have you.

[Robert Evans]

I've seen UFOs at a waffle House before.

[Garrison Davis]

No, Right. The Waffle Houses are, you know, have some kind of pull that I think attracts people like a magnet who are in us in an altered state towards them as like a beacon.

[James Stout]

Yeah, that.

[Robert Evans]

That pull is smothered in covered hash browns. Yes.

[James Stout]

Y. So and the fact that they're open

[Robert Evans]

at 4:00am oh, and bathrooms you can do heroin in.

[James Stout]

Don't forget that says it on the sign.

[Mia Wong]

I also want to make sure that we mentioned that in the same week in which the New York Times, the guy who was writing the headline, didn't know what NATO stood for. They also titled the initial title of the article they wrote about this was, and I quote, FEMA official says he teleported to Waffle House. Experts are dubious. This is. This might be the worst experts Disagree headline ever written.

[Garrison Davis]

I think this is good. I actually. Out of. Out of the two polls of New York New York Times headlines this week, the data one is iffy. This one fully. I fully agree with. I fully agree with their choice to say that experts are dubious about the teleportation.

[James Stout]

This does make me sad because the New York Times is also the outlet that ran what is in my opinion the best headline ever written. It was about the fact that moray.

[Mia Wong]

Oh, that one's good.

[James Stout]

Okay. It was on the subject of a scientific study which looked at moray eels and their ability to climb a ramp out of a pool to eat some food, which proved in theory that moray eels could hunt on land. And the headline was when an eel climbs a ramp to eat a squid from a clamp. That's a Moray title from a better time. Yeah, yeah. What a different era.

[Mia Wong]

Truly a masterpiece.

[James Stout]

Yeah, yeah. Whoever wrote that, I hope you're doing well.

[Garrison Davis]

We will now teleport to an ad break and rematerialize to discuss the back and forth. Ceasefire. Not Ceasefire with Iran.

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Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public. You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S P500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures [e-mail] disclosures let's talk about modern home shopping.

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[Robert Evans]

We're back. And depending on when you listen to this, we may either be back to war with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz could be closed or open. We're in like, just this, this beautiful.

[Garrison Davis]

Like Schrodinger's.

[Robert Evans]

Schrodinger's.

[Mia Wong]

Schrodinger's. Ceasefire.

[Robert Evans]

No one knows where it's gonna go after this.

[James Stout]

Yeah, if you don't open your phone, then you never know how many wars and ceasefires have started since the last time you opened your phone.

[Robert Evans]

That's right. They can't make you believe that a war is going on if you choose to not be informed other than by looking at gas prices.

[James Stout]

Yeah, yeah, that. That is a thing.

[Ad Voice (Public Investing)]

God.

[James Stout]

All right, let's try and do this in chronological order because this week has been bonkers. So let's start with last Friday when you last listened to Ed. If you listen on the day we release them. Good Friday. And that is kind of important because a United States Air Force F15E Strike Eagle belonging to the 48th Fighter Wing crashed in southwestern Iran last Friday after being hit by a manpad. The Manpads is a shoulder fired surface to air missile. The plane carries a pilot and a wizo. WSO is an acronym. It means Weapons Systems Officer or Weapon Systems Operator. I'm just going to call them Weapons Officer just to make it easier for everyone going forward. And both crew members safely self ejected from the plane. The United States very quickly launched a massive csar. That's combat search and rescue operation involving helicopters, low flying aircraft and close air support from both MQ9 Reaper drones and A10 aircraft. During this operation in which the aircraft flew within small arms range of the ground in Khuzestan province, several aircraft were damaged. One of The Jolly Green 2 Rescue Helicopters was hit with small arms fire. An A10 Thunderbolt crashed in the Strait of Hormuz and the pilot was recovered, Another was hit, and the pilot ejected over Kuwait. But this effort did result in the safe recovery of the F15's pilot, but not the weapons officer the following day. That happened during the day, in daylight hours, which is remarkable. It is extremely rare to see this happening like low flying helicopters over what is notionally enemy territory in the middle of the daytime. On Easter Sunday, the United States launched a huge operation which resulted in the recovery of the weapons officer. This was preceded by a disinformation campaign which hoped to make the Iranian state believe that they had extracted the weapons officer by land, which they hadn't. The operation involved a ton of Special Operations forces assets who flew to an agricultural airstrip outside Isfahan.

[Robert Evans]

Yep.

[James Stout]

This seems to have gone largely unremarked upon in the reporting. There is some, like, crackpot theory that this was all cover for an operation that extracted enriched uranium from Isfahan because there is a nuclear research related to Isfahan. I have not seen any evidence to support that. But I think it is likely that they knew of this agricultural airstrip because of plans which were made for a potential raid on the Isfahan nuclear research facility. During the operation, MQ9 Reaper drones bombed, quote, military age males who were close to the airmen. Iran had offered a reward of $60,000 for capturing this person before the United States got to them. And it is common for people in this area who, like, if you're like herding animals, right. To carry a gun, like to protect their animals or to protect themselves. There were some kind of propaganda videos of, like, local people looking for the airmen. Right. They were carrying like, Iranian flags and they're like antiquated bolt action rifles. But it's also very possible that some of these drone strikes may have occurred against people who were just going about their business in, in the region. Right. Like, if they didn't, they said military age male. That's. It's a broad remit. And anyone who would doubt that being a shepherd would be a military aged male. Right.

[Garrison Davis]

Would be military aged.

[James Stout]

Yeah, yeah.

[Mia Wong]

This is like one of the most sickening terms US Warfare is invented.

[James Stout]

Yeah. Military age male is like anyone. Anytime people are using that, like you got a dozen passes, sniff test.

[Garrison Davis]

No, it could be anyone from to like 14 years old to like 69.

[James Stout]

Exactly. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Robert Evans]

You'll be surprised who looks like an adult when you're a scared man with a gun.

[James Stout]

Yeah, yeah. Or looking from thousands of feet up on a drone camera. Right. Yeah.

[Mia Wong]

It's A term invented for we are just going to start shooting at random people. We have no idea who they are. We're just going to kill them. And it's hideous.

[James Stout]

I was recently rereading, I think it's called A Theory of the Drone. It's a philosophy book about drones and drone warfare. And there's a scene in the opening of that which I think is which you could probably get the free preview of the book if you have a Kindle and read that scene. But it's very illustrative of how vague this term can be. The rescue operation saw the planes land at an airstrip. Then a little bird helicopter took off, collected the airman who had been evading capture in a mountainous area. He was then carried back by the helicopter to the airstrip where the two larger aircraft that had bought the helicopter and all the personnel had become stuck.

[Garrison Davis]

Incredible.

[James Stout]

Yeah. I mean, I guess normally they would do some kind of soil sampling, but I think there probably just wasn't time. Yeah. So the United States elected to destroy those aircraft in place and send three more aircraft to recover their personnel. And we can see that Iran has published footage to that.

[Garrison Davis]

Right.

[James Stout]

It seems that they also destroyed the little bird helicopters. I've seen some reporting that the little bird helicopters were just like on a one way flight like that. They flew into Iran knowing that their range wasn't long enough for them to fly back and that they always planned to destroy them. I don't think that's the case. I think they got them out the back of the C130s and assembled them quickly. That, yeah, that is, that is a thing they have the capacity to do and that is what makes the most sense. So on that same day, Easter Sunday, kind of a big deal for the Christian folks. Donald Trump truth. The following quote, Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day all wrapped up in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it. Open the fucking street, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah.

[Robert Evans]

I love the President.

[James Stout]

Yeah, yeah. That is a. That is a leader of the free world. Yeah.

[Mia Wong]

My extremely low stakes conspiracy is that this was not Trump. This was written by Trump's staff. Because it's slightly off.

[Robert Evans]

It could have been. It doesn't sound like him really.

[James Stout]

Yeah, he's not normally a swearer. Like he gets angry.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah.

[James Stout]

The.

[Robert Evans]

A lot of stuff isn't really him.

[Mia Wong]

No.

[Robert Evans]

That's a weird thing for him to throw in.

[Garrison Davis]

I can very easily believe that this is. That this is him like going nuts. On something. Yeah. Like he could have done possible.

[Mia Wong]

I think there's a low chance that this was one. This was like a staff written thing.

[Robert Evans]

It's just, it's, it's, it's weird wording from him. Like, it's a strange message. Although the last couple from him have all seemed kind of strange.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. He is just out of it.

[Robert Evans]

The one he put up after the ceasefire announcement, where he's like. Where he puts in quotations that the Navy will be hanging round.

[James Stout]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's.

[Robert Evans]

That's not. Doesn't sound like him much either. But also, like, who else would he let write that? It's. He's, it's just. But it is weird. Right? That does not sound like any previous Trump.

[Garrison Davis]

Trump post.

[Robert Evans]

Hanging round.

[James Stout]

Just say fuck in a Trump in a presidential tweet. Like, I don't know why a staffer would do that.

[Robert Evans]

No. And I agree with you, James.

[Garrison Davis]

These things are usually transcribed. Like, usually he reads these out loud and someone writes them down and then he looks at them and, and then, and then, and then they hit post like that.

[James Stout]

That's.

[Garrison Davis]

That's how all of his truths were structured in that documentary. Yes.

[James Stout]

Does he dictate the capitalization when he looks them over?

[Garrison Davis]

Like, he, he may.

[James Stout]

Okay. Because he has a fascinating and quite unique approach to capitalization.

[Garrison Davis]

Yeah. Like, specifically, like, there will be nothing. Like. It is definitely like a Trump. A Trump verbal tic.

[James Stout]

Yeah, yeah.

[Robert Evans]

That's a super Trump line.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. But then, like, the next part is weird.

[James Stout]

Yeah.

[Robert Evans]

But hanging round, that's. That's not really a Trump sounding line.

[Mia Wong]

Okay, sorry.

[Robert Evans]

It's weird.

[Mia Wong]

We've all been distracted.

[James Stout]

So let's talk about what he said on Tuesday. Power plant day, bridge day.

[Garrison Davis]

Yeah.

[James Stout]

He said, quote, a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be bought back again.

[Robert Evans]

That's a Trump line.

[James Stout]

Yeah. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have complete and total regime change, where different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail. Maybe something. Did they maybe do it? Yeah.

[Garrison Davis]

I don't know.

[James Stout]

I'm not so sure. Maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen. Who knows? We will find out tonight. One of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world. 47 years of extortion, corruption and death will finally end. God bless the great people of Iran. Real journey that you go on.

[Robert Evans]

Yeah.

[James Stout]

From a civilization will die tonight to God bless the great people of Iran.

[Mia Wong]

Nightmarish.

[James Stout]

I don't know what to make of that. Like, it seems like he's just obviously striking civilian targets. It is a war crime. It is a war crime. Israel does all the time. We covered that last time we spoke. A whole civilization will die tonight. Seems borderline, like, genocidal as a threat. Yeah.

[Robert Evans]

And that's. That's not borderline.

[Mia Wong]

I think that is. I think that's a threat of genocide. Yeah. Like, this is. Which, by the way, is also, like, if you say this and then kill one person, like, you are guilty of the crime of genocide.

[James Stout]

Yeah, Like.

[Mia Wong]

Like attempted genocide.

[James Stout]

Like, it's not good. It is not good. Let's talk about what's actually happened right since then. Just before the deadline, a huge number of strikes hit Iran, including the Ministry of Intelligence building in Shiraz. There's some evidence that that may have had some tunnels underneath it. Aerospace Research Institute, Bridges and aluminum factory. Brigadier General Majid Hademi, who is the head of IRGC intelligence, was also killed in the targeted strike. And we hit Carg island again.

[Robert Evans]

Good. Finally.

[James Stout]

Yep. Yeah. Let a lot of people think that this might have been a precursor to some kind of US land operation, however, or nuclear weapons.

[Garrison Davis]

A lot. Right.

[James Stout]

Yeah. Right. We've seen this a lot. Right.

[Robert Evans]

Again, when the president's saying you're gonna wipe out, it doesn't make me feel calm. You should assume that the president might actually try to wipe out a culture. I mean, I like that. Is my strong stance on this. Is that based on what he's saying, it is not unreasonable for people to flip out over this statement?

[James Stout]

No, it's absolutely not.

[Robert Evans]

People should be outraged that a president

[James Stout]

said he really strong enough.

[Robert Evans]

It's really bad.

[James Stout]

Like, it's very bad.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. Like, he should be holed up in front of a tribunal like Milosevic.

[Robert Evans]

Like, I am not on team. We should just move past.

[James Stout]

Like, it's. It's easy. Because everything's so insane to be like, another insane thing.

[Robert Evans]

Everything's fucking nuts.

[James Stout]

This is a guy who has the trigger for all the nukes saying he's going to wipe out a civilization.

[Robert Evans]

Like, I would love to be the. Nothing ever happens. Nothing happened here. It's fine. Like, don't. Don't yield a Trump derangement syndrome guy because it's a lot easier. But, like, this is not something anyone should move past. He should go on trial for. Like, this alone. Like, outside of the other stuff.

[James Stout]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Each of these tweets would constitute a reason for a trial in any previous presidency. Since then, Pakistan offered to mediate a ceasefire and these negotiations were ongoing as Donald Trump was truthing. Iran reportedly made a list of its own demands. This is a translation from Persian. So like not, not a word for word quotation. Right. It lists these in its telegram channels as controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iran's armed forces. The necessity of ending the war against all components of the axis of resistance, the withdrawal of US combat forces from all bases and deployments in the region, establishing a secure transit protocol in the straightforward that guarantees Iranian control, full payment of damages to Iran, removal of all primary and secondary sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets and property abroad and the ratification of all these items in a binding UN Security Council resolution. The parties then agreed to a two week ceasefire. Trump again shared the news of this on True Social. Kind of done reading out his truth. So I'm going to skip that one. That was a hanging around one. Very shortly thereafter, Israel began a massive bombing campaign in Lebanon and Iran continued to launch missiles at the occupied territories. Caroline Levitt has said that Trump refused the Iranian plan.

[Ad Voice (Redfin)]

The Iranians originally put forward a 10 point plan that was fundamentally unserious, unacceptable and completely discarded. It was literally thrown in the garbage by President Trump and his negotiating team. Many outlets in this room have falsely reported on that plan as being acceptable to the United States and that is false.

[James Stout]

So she was pretty emphatic about that. Trump attacked CNN for publishing the plan this morning. Trump has said that the Israeli attacks on Lebanon were quote, a separate skirmish. Israel struck Lebanon a hundred times in just over 10 minutes today. They dropped whole tower blocks in Beirut. That, that is not a skirmish. Now he said they're not part of the deal because Hezbollah is not part of the deal. Of course in Iran, state media are pushing that. They've, they have somehow achieved all of their 10 points which I think were their sort of goals for negotiation or basis for negotiation. Trump has said to one reporter that the tolls on the straight could be a joint venture between the United States

[Garrison Davis]

and Iran, which, which suggests there's some parts of this, of this deal that, that are, that are true, that he has kind of agreed on that are

[James Stout]

at least on the table. Right. Like these are the bases at which was how they were initially reported by CNN and others, that these had been accepted as a basis for negotiation. They had not been accepted whole cloth. Some people, some whom I think are acting in bad faith have said since this morning the Wall Street Journal has reported that tolls will be paid in cryptocurrency or Chinese Yuan. Yeah. And that Iran is broadcasting VHF messages It's very high frequency. It's radio frequency warning non paying ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz that they will be targeted. Trump approved. He said the Strait of Hormuz is open. This doesn't seem like that.

[Garrison Davis]

The toll's about like 2 million, right?

[James Stout]

Well, there have been various proposals, sometimes said $2 million. I've seen different dollar sums per barrel of oil transiting the strait. I guess it would depend if it's, if it's, if it's a US Iranian partnership, you know, how are we going to account for the exchange rate? Everyone has to get their peace, right? Yes. The $2 million number was thrown around a lot.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. And it's worth noting that the strait is not open. No, it is simply not the number.

[Robert Evans]

Israel hasn't stopped launching strikes.

[James Stout]

Well, even if they wanted to open it right now, they would have to remove the mines that they've put in it.

[Robert Evans]

Right. We don't know how many mines there are, if there are.

[Mia Wong]

So there are still ships going through. There's not many of them. Like there's. I think it was the number I saw for today was four. Yeah, yeah. Like, so, like, like it, it is tech. Like it is possible to go through, but four is like one of the lowest numbers that has happened since the strait was first closed. So it has, it has simply not been reopened. Trump says this constantly.

[James Stout]

It's down to one channel would be my guess. Right. Like it's because. And then they're advising those ships, I'm guessing, or sending a pilot craft perhaps to go between the mines.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah, I haven't seen any reporting on. They're getting them through.

[James Stout]

Yeah, I haven't.

[Robert Evans]

The extent to which they've laid mines is really unclear.

[James Stout]

Yeah.

[Robert Evans]

Like all we know is that they have the capacity to do so and that the US has been striking craft that are set to lay mines. But like, I haven't heard of any evidence of a ship getting hit with a mine yet.

[James Stout]

Right. Yeah, neither have I. So perhaps they haven't made any.

[Robert Evans]

We don't know what they've done. They may have decided that that was more of than they needed to do at this point.

[James Stout]

Yeah, yeah.

[Mia Wong]

And so far all of the attacks on ships have been with other, more conventional weapons.

[James Stout]

Yeah. Either sea drones or just missiles of various kinds.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. Shooting them with guns in a couple of cases.

[James Stout]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Garrison, let's start with this clip of J.D. vance talking about the inclusion of Lebanon in this ceasefire.

[Mia Wong]

First of all, I actually think, and there's a lot of bad faith Negotiation and a lot of bad faith, you know, propaganda going on. I think this comes from a legitimate misunderstanding. I think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon and it just didn't. We never made that promise. We never indicated that was going to be the case. What we said is that the ceasefire would be focused on Iran and the ceasefire would be focused on America's allies, both Israel and the Gulf Arab states.

[James Stout]

So, yeah, let's talk about Israel. Right. A country which famously loves it to respect a ceasefire. Israel has continued to strike inside Iran. It has not stopped since the announcement of this ceasefire. Right. It has shown no indication of wanting to stop. It has also continued, as I said, its massive bombing campaign inside Lebanon. It seems to be the case that whatever was negotiated, the Israelis do not perceive the ceasefire as applying to them, or at least the IDF does not, I should say, rather than the Israelis. Right. And therefore Iran does not perceive it as, as being obliged to no longer strike Israel.

[Garrison Davis]

Yeah, I mean, the whole situation right now is very unclear. It is literally changing by the, by the hour.

[James Stout]

Yeah. Like by the time we're done recording this.

[Garrison Davis]

Right? Yeah. So we're recording this Wednesday afternoon. By the time this comes out Thursday night, slash Friday morning, there could be a whole different situation.

[James Stout]

Yeah, yeah. I'll try and record a pickup if we have to.

[Garrison Davis]

But yeah, as of as of Wednesday afternoon, this is what the sort of ambiguity around the deal looks like and the level of compliance regarding Israel and the United States.

[James Stout]

Yeah. There are two more things I want to talk about that have been reported on the list. Obviously this has been reported on widely because it is a threat to all of our lives if we're going to start a nuclear war. The Pak's Kurdistan Freedom Party says its leaders headquarters. This was initially reported as home. They did send me a text that used the word home. WhatsApp. But I think judging by what I have heard from other reports in the region, it's better described as headquarters was struck with several Iranian missiles. This came after, according to Fox News, the President claimed that the United States sent weapons to protesters in Iran in January that, quote, the Kurds kept them. Now, a video of Trump addressing the issue does not explicitly name the Kurds. It does imply that they don't have guns.

[Garrison Davis]

You know, we sent some guns, but

[Mia Wong]

the group that was supposed to give, which I said would happen to my people, I said it, I called it.

[Garrison Davis]

Exactly.

[James Stout]

We sent guns, a lot of guns.

[Garrison Davis]

They were supposed to go to the

[Mia Wong]

people so they could fight back against these thugs. You know what Happened.

[Garrison Davis]

The people that they sent him to

[Mia Wong]

kept them because they said, what a beautiful gun.

[Garrison Davis]

I think I'll keep it. So I'm very upset with a certain group of people and they're going to pay a big price for that. But the Iranian people will fight back as soon as they know they're not going to be shot and as soon

[Mia Wong]

as they can get weapons.

[Garrison Davis]

This is one of the most terrific things I've seen.

[James Stout]

It's up there with him threatening to nuke Iran while flanked by the Easter Bunny on his.

[Garrison Davis]

I hesitate to use the word Lynchian because that word gets misapplied a lot.

[James Stout]

And, and Kafka esque simile.

[Garrison Davis]

And this is not a, a perfect invocation of Lynchian either. But it's getting closer with the, with the sort of.

[James Stout]

One of the more Lynchian things to happen in real life.

[Garrison Davis]

It's incredible stuff with like the Easter jazz in the background.

[Robert Evans]

Crash of vibes. Yeah.

[Garrison Davis]

As there's like flowers over the archway.

[James Stout]

Yeah. The Capcom.

[Garrison Davis]

No, this, this sort of, the sort of juxtaposition. Right. Which I think is the, is the key part of L is like is. Is the surreal with the mundane. And you, you have parts of this here where you have this sort of intensity of the stuff Trump's talking about with the Easter jazz and his like purple tie and it's Easter like decorations in the background. This is, this is a stunning piece

[Robert Evans]

of media, stunning piece of history.

[James Stout]

God, yeah. I saw this yesterday and I thought I need to expose my colleagues to this, like one of the most incredible 30 seconds of video to come back to the topic at hand. Various Rojelati groups have denied this, and it would be an extreme logistical challenge to provide weapons to Kurdish armed groups, most of whom have most of their personnel in Iraq. And for them to transit those weapons to Tehran. I don't believe that that would have been something that any US administration would entertain.

[Robert Evans]

What guns would they give them that they don't? Because if these groups tend to be pretty well supplied with small arms, we're talking about like your battle rifles and you know, long range precision rifles and the like. What they lack is man portable anti aircraft and man portable anti armor. Those are kind of some of the most precious pieces of gear to them. And I doubt Trump was offering to send that into Iran. Among other things. We probably don't want to be sending a bunch of man portable anti aircraft into Iran right now.

[James Stout]

Like, that could backfire.

[Robert Evans]

But that's the only shit I could see. These different groups wanting to take for themselves.

[James Stout]

Yeah, it's especially strange because like I watched a lot of videos of armed attacks on like Iranian police in January of this year and they were using very basic weapons to include quite a few of the Pak using pump action shotguns. Yeah, I don't think the US sent them pump action shotguns.

[Robert Evans]

No, that would be a weird. We don't. The US military doesn't have a lot of pump action shoddies just laying around. Yeah, that's not like the first gun they'd have a bunch of to hand over to somebody. Yeah, they probably got more AKs than that.

[James Stout]

Yeah. And like there were AKs used as well. But like these are very basic reposit as you say. Like this doesn't seem like anything that would come from the us. Also in Kurdistan, an Iranian drone struck Zar Gazawi village killing Musa anwar Rasool, age 39 and his wife Musta Asad Hassan, their children both survived. This is really heartbreaking and like there are really horrible videos of their children like confronting the fact that they are now orphans. Right. And because of stories like this one, which I do not see any basis for in fact Kurdistan is being absolutely hammered by Iranian bombs. Right. Little children are losing their parents and like I'm really disturbed, as I say every week by the campus tendency to ignore this or to say that it has to happen because the Kurds don't have a state or even the, the sort of blue wave tendency to sort of hand wave this and say well Donald Trump started the war so Iran gets to murder Kurdish civilians. Like I just find it so heartbreaking. And Robert and I have both spent time in Kurdistan and like have a fondness for the people there, but makes me mad.

[Robert Evans]

It's all pretty bleak and disappointing.

[James Stout]

Well, you know what else disappointing? Every week we have to do this. It's an ad break.

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[Garrison Davis]

All right, we're back. We still have three or four, four important stories that we're gonna do here before we close. James, do you want to start with your section on the threat to press freedom?

[James Stout]

Yeah. So I think this is important. President Trump has said that his DOJ will seek to prosecute the person who, quote, leaked the information that the F15's weapon safety officer was missing and evading capture in Iran. Quote, we're going to go to the media company that released it and we're going to say, national security. Give it up or go to jail. Trump said, quote, the entire country of Iran knew that there was a pilot that was somewhere on their land that was fighting for his life. It wasn't the pilot, it was a weapons officer, but airmen. Right. I can't quite find who broke the story because it's not really a story that broke. It didn't require anyone to leak anything to know that someone was missing because the wreckage. And without seeing the wreckage, people weren't really willing to publish the story because they had no confirmation. And Iran says wild shit all the time.

[Garrison Davis]

Yeah.

[James Stout]

The wreckage was photographed and published by presumably Iranian sources, and it very clearly showed the livery of a US Air Force F15 based out of Lakenheath, which is near Cambridge in the United Kingdom. There were some very early reports before we saw photos that the plane shot down with an F35. And that would have been a single seater. Right. But as soon as the images came out, everyone knew that wasn't the case. It Nope. Was an F15 Strike Eagle. Yeah. And there are single seater F15 variants, but I don't believe any of them are active duty. U.S. air Force. Strike Eagles will always have two people. It's not a single seater. Right. So nobody had to leak that information for it to be obvious that if they had collected one person, then there was still one person. This does represent quite a serious attack on the First Amendment. People are killing and dying over Iran and our tax dollars are supporting that. Have a right to know. Journalism has played a role in the way Americans perceive conflict for a very long time. Right. We can think about the napalm girl photo. I understand that photo now has disputed authorship. We can think about Walter Cronkite. The Vietnam War. We can think about Abbott Graham. There is no federal press shield law, though. And journalists have been held in contempt for refusing to reveal sources on nat security issues before. This is a serious threat and it's one that I think everyone should take very seriously.

[Garrison Davis]

Yeah, well, and it's a very important part of the. Of the last little section of the newsroom TV show. There's a whole plot line about this and it shows.

[Robert Evans]

Yes, yes, yes, Gareth, there sure is.

[Garrison Davis]

So I just thought that's worth mentioning.

[James Stout]

You guys have told me not to watch sex. It'll make me angry. And I've respected that.

[Robert Evans]

You should not. James, you will lose your mind. It's not good for you.

[James Stout]

There's a lot of stuff's making me angry right now, so I'm gonna give that one.

[Robert Evans]

Too much Sorkin at the moment is very quickly becomes toxic.

[James Stout]

Too much Sorkin is really fucked up a lot of people in this country.

[Robert Evans]

Yeah. Speaking of things that'll really fuck you up are beautiful. Tariff music. Ah, so glad that we're back to talking about tariffs.

[Mia Wong]

So, okay, we have a couple of Iran related tariff things. Garrett, are we playing the nightmare clip?

[Garrison Davis]

We have to play the nightmare clip.

[Mia Wong]

We're playing the nightmare clip. Okay. This is okay.

[James Stout]

When.

[Mia Wong]

When inevitably in the course of humanity, they have to make a museum to explain to people what capitalism was. This is what they are going to show.

[Garrison Davis]

This is a clip from the quote unquote news agency CNBC deadline that President Trump has set 8pm has threatened to destroy a civilization.

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How does an investor or process that.

[Garrison Davis]

Is it. Is it a bigger upside risk or downside risk?

[Robert Evans]

Big upside risk or downside risk to genocide? How do we. How do we do that?

[James Stout]

She kind of looks up and then just goes right in. Like when.

[Mia Wong]

When they have to like explain to people, right, like how. How 8 billion people were like consumed into these like, roles that they were forced to inhabit by the machinations of capital. This is gonna be the one.

[Garrison Davis]

Oh, God. It turns out the markets responded very positively to Trump's threats to destroy a civilization.

[Mia Wong]

It's. I, you know, what if. What if we didn't have market. What if. What if there wasn't a line? I. Oh, God. Okay, so speaking of bad things, I Guess so. On Wednesday, Trump posted on Truth Social, quote, a country, capital C, country supplying capital M military weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed on any and all goods sold to the United states of America, 50% effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions.

[Garrison Davis]

So can he do this?

[Mia Wong]

Yes. Keen eyed listeners may remember that the legal authority he was claiming to have to do this, the Supreme Court made go away. So can you do this? Look, okay, the way he's describing this, right, sounds like he's using trade authority. It may be that buried somewhere deep in the annals of like sanction policy or some shit, maybe there's something. I went through all of the trade authority that I know of to try to find any legal authority for this. The short version is there isn't. The long version is. Okay, so I guess in theory maybe if you squint right, you could use session 301 of the 1974 Trade act, but that's supposed to be a national security risk from unfair trade practices, so it could technically work. But the thing is you also have to that specific one. We've talked about this on the show before. You have to like set up a commission and do a trade study and there's like all this stuff so it can't work immediately. No.

[Garrison Davis]

And Trump doesn't seem like a big set up a commission guy.

[Mia Wong]

I mean, well, thing is they actually have done this for China already. But I don't know, if you squint like really hard, like, like if you like really, really squint at like section 232. Like maybe in theory, like, but like, no, like if, if you're really willing to believe that like the President has the ability to be like this is what the law says, then maybe the only way I can see this working is if he invokes section 338, which is the, this is like the remaining part of the Smoot Hawley tariffs now.

[James Stout]

Famously good smoothie.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. So like, okay, there is a small chance that like you the listeners may have heard of the Smoot Hawley tariffs and that's because it's the one that like made the Great Depression worse.

[Robert Evans]

Yep.

[Mia Wong]

And no one's ever used them since. It's not even clear if they're on the books anymore. Because in like this is a legitimate thing of academic discussion. Just like whether these are even still in effect because they haven't been used, they're technically still there. But also no one has like ever used them. And also there's been like subsequent laws regulating trade. So I don't know. There's no, there's no way he can do this legally. That wouldn't immediately fall apart or it wouldn't fall apart eventually to a court challenge. Except maybe the like Smoot Hawley like nuclear bomb desperation thing. I don't know. It's very unclear to me whether any of this is ever even going to be attempted to be implemented. He shouldn't be able to do this. This is just Calvin Ball bullshit. But who knows?

[James Stout]

Yeah, it would be China, I presume, is what he's going for there. Right. Like China's so weapons to Iran.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. And like there's also a lot of speculation, like I think Reuters reported this, that this might be a thing because there's going to be a trade summit with Beijing. But if you're a trade person in Beijing, you also know that he can't do this. So it's not real leverage. I don't know. Nightmare. So let's talk about some relatively fun, I guess, news back at home.

[Garrison Davis]

Interesting, certainly.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. So one of the things that happened this week was there was a series of elections and the result of those elections was the Republicans got absolutely hammered, like all up and down the ballot in Wisconsin. They did, they performed terribly in Georgia. So the big Democratic win was in Wisconsin. So polls had Chris Taylor, who was the Democratic candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, up by about 7 or 8%. Chris Taylor won this election by 20.

[James Stout]

Oh, wow.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah, there was also a full sweep of the whole like Moms for Liberty school board slates in a bunch of elections in, in very conservative Waukesha County. The specific one where every single one of them lost and they've fully cleared out all of the monster Liberty people was a very specific one that was famous for doing a whole bunch of these right wing book bans and stuff like that. And they're, they're all gone. And this is, this is, you know, a continuation of a trend that we've seen over the past couple of years. Really were like year, year and a half where all of these weird monster Liberty weirdos just get clobbered. Now also in that same county, in the actual like mayoral election of Waukesha, like the city of Waukesha, the Democrats won that election, which they haven't done in ages.

[Garrison Davis]

Yeah, this is like one of the biggest Republicans and like stronghold victories and like they will always win this seat.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. You know, this is something that like everyone from Wisconsin has been talking about, which is if they can't win here, they can't win Wisconsin at All. Yeah, there's, there's no way. Right. And again, like, you know, I'm gonna get into this more in a second, but like the Democrats were projected to win this seat and this is obviously a by election and this, this is, this, this Supreme Court seat that they won is like them getting to 5, 2. So it wasn't like the majority seat in the way that the last one of these elections were, but they were projected to win by like seven and they won by 20.

[James Stout]

Yeah.

[Garrison Davis]

Yeah, that's, that's big.

[James Stout]

Wow.

[Mia Wong]

Which is astonishing.

[Robert Evans]

Part of again, you, you mentioned the, a bunch of these like school board elections in Wisconsin. It's not just Wisconsin. I mean in a lot of the most conservative territory, the most conservative counties in Texas over the last like year, basically every school district that was taken by the Moms for Liberty types has been completely like, they have been completely thrown out. And that has been happening around the country. There's a lot that people are focusing on when looking at like, why are numbers so fucking dog for Republicans right now? Why are they getting beaten by such wide margins? And it's certainly way more than one thing is responsible. But I think something that has not gotten enough attention that has been dooming the Republicans electorally is that they got what they wanted in the branch of the, the chunk of our government that is hardest to ignore for the average American, which is like what's happening to their kids in schools. And a bunch of regular people who were not all that political saw that like, my kid can't like check books out any the is happening here. And they, they, they went crazy. Like, not crazy. They got really pissed off. Yeah, rightfully so. And I think this is going, I, I, my hope is that this turns out to be one of their worst like strategic missteps in this period of time is their belief that we can just go fucking and ape shit on schools and no one will care.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah, well, and this brings me back to something I've been talking about for a while, which is that so like one of the other results that we're sort of looking at here is so there, there was an election in Georgia in this like as established special election for the seat that was Marjorie Taylor Greene's old district. This is like one of the most unhinged Republican districts in the entire country. Trump won it by 40. And the Republican Clay Fuller did win, but he only, he won by 12 points in a county that Trump carried by 40.

[Garrison Davis]

Yeah, yeah, that's like, it's like a 28 point shift.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. Right. It's, it's unbelievable. Now obviously they didn't win here, but there's been a lot of stuff about how. Okay, well, this is just because Democrats, Democrats do better among high information voters. Those are the people who vote in these off cycle elections that aren't during the normal election cycle, blah, blah, blah. There's a lot of this kind of stuff, stuff that's a, kind of stuff that puts you ahead as, as the polls were showing in Wisconsin, that puts you ahead by like seven. That does not, that does not explain a 13% over performance. Yeah, yeah, right. And I think what is happening here is something I've said consistently and this is something that I think Robert is sort of explaining. Why this is happening is that pollers are still using, there's, they're still using as as their basis for what, what they assume the electorate is going to be. They're using the data from the electorate from the 2024 election. Yeah, because that's, that's the standard practice. Right. You, you use as a sample, you know, and you, you make some like adjustments because it's a by election and stuff like that. But like they're using as, as a sample base of voters, the people from 2024. And that electorate does not exist anymore because it's been completely destroyed. Yeah, right. All of these people have suddenly been mobilized. Like the whole city of Minneapolis has been like turned into this like, weird. I don't know, I'm making that sound negative. It's like there's like Minneapolis has had a level of mobilization that is like, like possibly has never been seen before in US History. All of these like people who had been, you know, just like not political at all are. And this is the other thing with like the school board elections is that these are mostly people who were not political people at all who just swept in because they like their schools got with the, the entire electorate has changed.

[Garrison Davis]

It shows there's like a deep fluidity here. Right. There's a lot of people who supported Trump because of economic conditions which were blamed on the Democrats and they moved for Trump. And there was a lot of these same people are not like Trump or Republican loyalists. They're, they're reacting to the economic conditions and the messaging from each party. And this is reflected in, you know, the number of Trump Zoron voters, even the number of people who vote Trump and AOC in New York. Right?

[Mia Wong]

Yeah.

[Garrison Davis]

They're not like mega loyalists. Right. But, but it's showing how there is a big fluidity among, among the Types of people that do decide elections. Yeah.

[Mia Wong]

But then there's all. There's also. And this is. I think the. The. The other side of this, too. Right. Is that there's a bunch of people who haven't voted or just didn't give a shit at all. And those people are suddenly being mobilized, and this is turning into like. Like the Democrats are, like, winning a whole bunch of, like, rural counties in these elections. Right?

[Garrison Davis]

Yeah.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. And now I. The. The last thing I want to talk about in sort of this kind of section of Everybody Hates the Republicans is that the issues and insights TIPP survey for April shows Trump with a 39% approval rating. This poll, which is done a bunch of times every year, they give, like, a bunch of topics where they give A through F rankings, from like, immigration to the economy to, like, the wars in Iran and Ukraine. And, like, a plurality of the votes were an F on every single one.

[Garrison Davis]

Even immigration.

[Mia Wong]

Immigration was the one that was kind of close between that and A. Every single other one was down double digits. If you look at CDF versus AB or if you ignore C. Right. It's so much more in the category

[Garrison Davis]

of Ds and Fs on the negative side in general. Yeah.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. This is for every single issue.

[James Stout]

I'm guessing it was kind of a binary distribution. Right. Like a lot of as or a lot of Fs, and not much.

[Mia Wong]

There's actually a surprising number of Bs.

[James Stout]

That's interesting.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. And, like, a decent number of Ds. But, yeah, it was, like, mostly Fs. And then everything else is kind of spread out between the other ones. I mean, all of this is before the, like, I'm a civilization will die tonight stuff, which.

[Garrison Davis]

Which did cause negative reactions from people in the. In the conservative base.

[James Stout]

Yeah.

[Garrison Davis]

And the people voting in Georgia and. And Wisconsin. I want to play this clip here. This was a clip from.

[James Stout]

From.

[Garrison Davis]

From Georgia, of a Georgia voter who was interviewed on Election day.

[James Stout]

It's giving war crime.

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You can't do that. We don't just annihilate people because we

[James Stout]

can and, you know, make a grab for the money and the oil. And that's what we've done in Venezuela,

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and that's what we're doing in Iran.

[Robert Evans]

It's giving war crime.

[Garrison Davis]

It's giving war crime.

[Robert Evans]

I need to take a second. This is.

[Garrison Davis]

This is beautiful, though, right?

[Robert Evans]

Positive.

[James Stout]

Yeah. That's a better message than the Democrats have managed to come up with on.

[Garrison Davis]

This is great. This is.

[Radhi Deblookia]

This is.

[Garrison Davis]

This is like a woman in her 30s or 40s.

[James Stout]

Yeah.

[Garrison Davis]

Holding. Holding a kid at 9. This broadcast was at 9:33am in Rome, Georgia, on Election Day.

[Mia Wong]

Yep.

[Garrison Davis]

It is. It's giving war crime.

[Mia Wong]

Yeah. And, you know, if you look at that like the YouGov economist poll, which is from like, April 1, but, like, even at April 1, he had a. Just an atrocious 35% approval rating, which is. That's like. That's like end of the Bush administration shit. All of this. The. The important part of this is that, like, the Democrats are still really historically unpopular right now because everyone's pissed at them for not doing anything. But the actual mass of people in this country fucking hate all of this. They're pissed off at everything that is happening. Everything you ask about that Trump is doing, they are fucking angry about. And, you know, this is. This is. This is the kind of anger and the kind of just generalized rage that I think there's no really good way to measure outside of the tools that we've developed for elections or in terms of just like, you know, sometimes you get street mobilizations like this anger, like, is the defining thing of the United States right now is that everybody's pissed the off about this. And. Yeah. And every opportunity they get to express that this shit fucking sucks. They do. This is what American politics is. Even as everything is unbelievably, hideously bleak from all of the shit these people are doing.

[Garrison Davis]

Speaking of people who are pissed off, there's one final story that I'll go through pretty quick before we close this episode. Last Wednesday, to celebrate April Fool's Day, Trump fired Pam Bondi as Attorney General. Trump told Bondi about his plan to fire her while in the car together to watch the Supreme Court oral arguments on. On birthright citizenship. Jesus.

[Robert Evans]

There's video of it. There's video of it. It's amazing. Like, credit to Fox. But they got a shot of them in the limo and Trump is clearly telling her, and it's. When we know he was telling her. It's an amazing little artifact. All you can make out is their faces kind of, and their body language, but it rips. It's so funny.

[Garrison Davis]

Bondi tried to convince Trump to let her stay on until at least summer, but to no avail. Trump appointed Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanch to serve as acting Attorney General until the President nominates a full replacement. On Tuesday, Blanche said, quote, nobody has any idea, unquote, why Bondi was fired except for President Trump, though sources close to the White House have told multiple outlets that Trump had a growing Frustration with Bondi for a while, especially related to her failure to successfully prosecute certain political enemies and the fallout from her handling of the Epstein file. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin has been floated as a prospective replacement for Attorney General at the epa. Zeldin has led efforts to roll back environmental regulations and climate protections related to endangered species, wetlands, and emissions. Before working in the second Trump administration, Zeldin lost the race for New York governor to Kathy Hochul by 7 percentage points. A relatively close race for New York. New York.

[James Stout]

Yeah.

[Garrison Davis]

Zeldin is a Trump loyalist, fought against the President's two impeachments while in Congress and refused to certify the 2020 election results.

[James Stout]

Great.

[Garrison Davis]

Zeldin's a retired U.S. army lieutenant colonel who served four years in active duty as a military intelligence officer, federal prosecutor, and military magistrate, and in 2006, was deployed with the 82nd Airborne Division during Operation Iraqi Freedom.

[Mia Wong]

Wait, so he's a troop cop? Cop, Military magistrate, troop judge.

[Garrison Davis]

He served in that. He served in a few roles, yeah.

[Mia Wong]

That's troop cop.

[Garrison Davis]

He served as a prosecutor and a judge.

[Mia Wong]

The hated and reviled. Yeah, troop cop.

[James Stout]

It looks like maybe he at some point went to law school there. Right?

[Garrison Davis]

He went to law school in New York either during that time or beforehand. It all kind of takes place around because I. I think he got out of law School around 2004. At the time, he was the youngest person to finish law school in New York.

[Mia Wong]

Oh, wow.

[Garrison Davis]

He was in his early 20s. After he got out of the military or out of active duty, he briefly served as an attorney for the Port Authority of Newark and New Jersey, and also private practice for a little bit before he went into the State Senate and then eventually US Congress. Now, before Bondi's firing, Pambani was scheduled to testify in front of the House Oversight Committee about the Epstein files on April 14th. Now, Democrats on the committee still want her to testify as she holds relevant knowledge. But on Wednesday morning, the Justice Department released a statement saying Bondi would not appear at the Hearing on the 14th, quote, since she is no longer Attorney General and was subpoenaed in her capacity as Attorney General, Unquote. This is a little bit untrue. She was not subpoenaed by her title as Attorney General. She was subpoenaed by name as Pam Bondi. Now, Oversight Committee Democrats have responded by saying if Bonney does not comply with the bipartisan subpoena addressed to her by name name, they will, quote, begin contempt charges, unquote. Republican Nancy Mace has said Quote, Pam Bondi cannot escape accountability simply because she no longer holds the office of Attorney General. Our motion to subpoena Pam Bondi, which was passed by the Oversight Committee, was for a Bondi by name, not by title. She will still have to appear before the Oversight Committee for a sworn deposition. The American people deserve answers and we expect her to appear as soon as a new date is set, unquote. So it appears they will try to reschedule her for a new date. Bondi's firing is interesting in the context of Kristi Gnomes firing. As for the first year or so of Trump's second term, he really resisted making changes to his cabinet. Right. These, these sorts of frequent changes were a hallmark of his first of his first term.

[James Stout]

Yeah.

[Garrison Davis]

And for the start of his second, he seemed to not want to do that and instead got like his ranks of loyalists that he was going to work with, with. But since Christy Gnome's firing, that has clearly changed. And this has prompted speculation about who could be next from people like Tulsi Gabard to Cash Patel or Pete Heth. I think Gabard is, is certainly, certainly one of, one of the people. If I was one of these three, I would, I would be most nervous if I was Gabard. Patel's an odd, is an odd character. I, I'm really not sure what's in the future for him.

[Mia Wong]

A podcast.

[Garrison Davis]

And I think that what happens eventually in Iran will determine what goes on with Hegseth.

[James Stout]

There have been rumors that some of the reason that Hegseth has been sort of purging high command in the military is that he has concerns that those

[Garrison Davis]

people could be his replacements.

[James Stout]

Like alternates for him. SecDef. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Patel was under more heat I feel like during following the shooting of Charlie Kirk. Right. The assassination and that their failure to find the assassin for some time.

[Garrison Davis]

Yeah. And his plane tickets and his trips with his girlfriend.

[James Stout]

Yeah.

[Robert Evans]

The failure with Savannah Guthrie too.

[James Stout]

Yeah.

[Garrison Davis]

Trump. Trump did not like that clip of him in the hockey locker room.

[James Stout]

Yeah. There have been quite a few. Now you mentioned them.

[Garrison Davis]

Before we go, we should mention there is still about a week left of Webby voting. It could happen here is nominated for a Webby as is James series Migrating to America which aired on it could happen here and of course behind the Bastards links to vote for our shows in the Webby Awards will be in the episode description. Voting goes till April 16. Most important election of our lives. Stay in line, vote early and often, etc. Etc.

[James Stout]

If you'd like to email us with tips that are relevant to our news coverage, you can do so Cool zonetips Proton me. If you have a marketing message to send us, I will block you.

[Garrison Davis]

All right, that does it for us here at It Could Happen Here.

[Mia Wong]

Put a trans girl on your couch.

[Garrison Davis]

We reported the News.

[James Stout]

We reported the news.

[Mia Wong]

It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool's.

[Garrison Davis]

For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, Visit our website coolzonemedia.com or check us

[Mia Wong]

out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Garrison Davis]

You can now find sources for It

[Mia Wong]

Could Happen Here, listed directly in Episode Descriptions.

[Garrison Davis]

Thanks for listening.

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