It Could Happen Here: “Israel’s Attack on Lebanon”

Cool Zone Media | iHeartPodcasts
Date: March 25, 2026
Host: Dana El Kurd
Guest: Ilya Ayub (Lebanese-Palestinian journalist and historian)
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Overview: The Collapse Expands to Lebanon

This episode delves into Israel’s escalating military assault on Lebanon amid a wider regional conflict involving Iran. Through firsthand analysis, journalist and historian Ilya Ayub foregrounds the massive and underreported humanitarian, political, and historical context shaping Lebanese realities during the war. Host Dana El Kurd and Ayub focus on the destruction unfolding in Lebanon, the intentions behind Israeli strategies, and the lack of meaningful responses from both the Lebanese government and the international community.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Timeline and Context of the Conflict

[03:29–05:55]

• The current war’s roots trace back just over three weeks, after the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader and the start of US/Israeli attacks on Iran.
• Hezbollah responded to the assassination by firing rockets at Israel, prompting Israeli officials to unleash "hell" on Lebanon.
• A so-called “ceasefire” between Israel and Hezbollah had already been violated more than 15,000 times by Israel (according to UNIFIL figures)—Hezbollah had not violated it prior to the recent escalation.
• 20% of Lebanon’s population is now displaced—a figure that includes many suffering repeated displacement since 2024 or earlier wars.

“As of time of recording, at least 20% of the entirety of Lebanon has already been displaced... and pretty unclear where this is headed because just hours before we even started recording, they escalated their bombing of bridges connecting south Lebanon to the rest of Lebanon...”
— Ilya Ayub [05:21]

2. The “Gaza Model” and the Doctrine of Domination

[06:18–11:07]

• Israeli leaders overtly call for imposing the “Gaza model” on Lebanon—flattening entire villages, creating ‘no man’s lands,’ and making broad swathes uninhabitable.
• Use of genocidal language by key Israeli officials:
  • “Send Lebanon back to the Stone Age.” —Yoav Gallant, Nov 2024
  • “Lebanon does not meet the definition of a state.” —Amichai Chikli, Sept 2024
  • “Very soon Dahiyeh will resemble Khan Yunis.” —Bezalel Smotrich, Feb/Mar 2026
• Israel revived the “Dahiyeh Doctrine” (post-2006 war) — systematic bombing of civilian infrastructure as state policy.

“There has been this train of open utterances of genocidal craving on behalf of Israeli politicians and military leaders... It wouldn’t explain detonating entire villages... spraying herbicide... not allowing farmers to harvest their crops... If you take into account what they say their intentions are in Lebanon...”
— Ilya Ayub [09:09]

3. Historic Obsession with Lebanon and Internal Dynamics

[11:07–14:18]

• Describes a longstanding Israeli policy fixation with Lebanon, not just as an extension of the Iran conflict.
• Historical alliances: Israel’s support for Christian far-right militias during Lebanon’s Civil War, ideological attempts to align with non-Muslims.
• Explains the Lebanese political quagmire:
  • The country suffers economic collapse, government dysfunction, a refugee crisis, and now war devastates infrastructure and displaces millions.

“I really want to emphasize this because I have had the experience when I read a lot of the coverage... there tends to be a tendency to link what happens in Lebanon directly to what's happening in Iran... But there's all of this wider context that can help... explain why the Israelis are doing that in Lebanon...”
— Ilya Ayub [11:52]

4. The View from Within Lebanon: Helplessness and Disempowerment

[14:18–19:04]

• Lebanese people feel despair and helplessness—many do not support Hezbollah, but see no alternative since the army lacks resources and is US-dependent.
• International expectations essentially demand Lebanese resignation to being “collateral damage.”
• UNIFIL forces cannot retaliate against Israeli attacks—even when UN troops are bombed by Israel.
• The “alternative force” (Lebanese army) is under-equipped, underfunded, and dependent on US aid, which is dwarfed by US support to Israel.

“Even among people who don't support the state of Israel... there tends to [be] a tendency to link what happens in Lebanon directly to what's happening in Iran. And this has been true in the past three weeks. And as I said, this is, of course, partly the case. It's not completely irrelevant. Hezbollah did even state that... But there's all of this wider context...”
— Ilya Ayub [12:25]

“There is a sense that no matter what we decide as a nation, it's completely out of our hands... Even when Hezbollah does not launch rockets or whatnot, the Israelis continue to violate ceasefires anyway. They encroach land anyway, they dynamite entire villages anyway...”
— Ilya Ayub [15:18]

5. Domination, Not Deterrence: The New Israeli Strategy

[22:18–29:36]

• Nathan Brown’s analysis: Israeli policy has shifted from deterrence or negotiation to a program of “domination, degradation, and the prevention of the adversary's recovery.”
• Lebanon’s government is increasingly desperate—hoping for a revival of "land for peace," though historical precedent (i.e., Golan Heights) makes this unlikely.
• The logic of perpetual war: Israel needs an adversary; “domination almost for its own sake.”
• Policy is not about establishing stable outcomes, but about endless war and control.

“It's domination almost for its own sake. There is no end goal necessarily. ... They can't stop. It's becoming an end in itself. There has to be an enemy, there has to be a constant creation almost of like an external enemy in Israeli political discourse today...”
— Ilya Ayub [26:46]

“Genocide as a tool of conflict management.”
— Dana El Kurd [29:08]

6. Aftermath for Lebanon & Hezbollah

[34:27–41:44]

• Lebanese economy in ruins; South and East Lebanon (breadbasket regions) under constant bombing.
• The destruction of Hezbollah would not solve the problem: another force would eventually arise because the underlying injustices—and local attachment—endure.
• The ongoing war places further strain on Lebanon as the EU and other powers rely on it to absorb refugees—a pressure-cooker dynamic that is already unsustainable.

“If Hezbollah is destroyed and completely disarmed and what have you, that this problem is going to go away, because if anything, a new beast of some kind is going to be created in the fires in the same way that Hezbollah was created in the initial ones.”
— Ilya Ayub [39:40]

• Israeli political discourse is internally-focused; debate centers solely on what to do after Lebanon and its south are destroyed.
• Without real international intervention (especially US or EU pressure), the destruction and destabilization will only spread.

“If the Israelis themselves are not stopped in one way or another by their allies..., whatever the means are... this problem is just going to expand.”
— Ilya Ayub [37:54]

7. Global and Technological Consequences

[43:05–46:51]

• The region’s crisis is amplified by US support for Israel—"None of this would be physically possible, diplomatically possible, economically possible, were it not for this unconditional support..."
• Technologies and militarized practices developed by Israel (such as those in Gaza or Lebanon) are exported globally, including to the US military (e.g., Palantir AI).
• The issue is impunity: no international consequences for Israel’s actions for decades.

“The problem really goes back to impunity. The problem really goes back to the fact that nothing the Israelis have ever done, at least in the past several decades, has had any consequences to them, to what they do to the region and so on. And this is absolutely a bipartisan problem in America.”
— Ilya Ayub [45:00]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Despair is... one word to describe it. There's definitely a sense of helplessness.”
  — Ilya Ayub [14:18], on the Lebanese public mood.

• “There is no objective reason to believe that if Hezbollah is destroyed... that this problem is going to go away. If anything, a new beast... will be created in the fires...”
  — Ilya Ayub [39:40]

• “Genocide as a tool of conflict management.”
  — Dana El Kurd [29:08]

• “They can't stop. It's becoming an end in itself. There has to be an enemy, there has to be a constant creation almost of like an external enemy in Israeli political discourse today, because nothing else works in Israeli politics.”
  — Ilya Ayub [26:50]

• “If Biden had done anything about Israel’s genocide in Gaza, really almost anything, I don’t think we would be where we are today. And so, no, this is not a Trump problem... the problem goes back to American imperialist hubris.”
  — Ilya Ayub [45:28]

Important Timestamps

• 03:29 — Guest’s overview of current conflict in Lebanon and displacement numbers
• 07:09 — Discussion of the “Gaza model,” Dahiyeh Doctrine, and direct quotes from Israeli leaders
• 11:07 — Historical roots of Israeli policy toward Lebanon, pre-2024 context
• 14:18 — The sense of helplessness among Lebanese, lack of alternatives, weakness of Lebanese Army
• 22:18 — Nathan Brown’s “Forever Wars” concept; shift from deterrence/negotiation to domination
• 34:27 — Aftermath for Lebanon, future of Hezbollah (or new militant groups)
• 41:44 — Global ramifications: refugee crisis, US/EU role, environmental fallout
• 43:05 — US complicity, arms transfers, export of military technology, problem of impunity

Tone and Language

The conversation is analytical, urgent, and at times deeply emotional, with an emphasis on lived experience, historical context, and the recurring theme of international indifference toward Lebanese (and broader Middle Eastern) suffering. Both speakers call out both Israeli and American policies for enabling what they describe as acts of domination and impunity that affect the entire region and set dangerous precedents worldwide.

Conclusion

This episode provides a sobering, deeply informed analysis of Israel’s military onslaught in Lebanon, situating it within decades of Israeli policy, US complicity, and systemic disregard for Lebanese agency and survival. It warns of far-reaching regional and global repercussions absent meaningful international accountability and intervention.