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Sign up@m.com today. For decades, people in northern Nigeria have been suffering the violence of jihadist groups in the region. More recently, following the lobbying of some questionable interest groups and figures in the United States, President Donald Trump has dropped American bombs on Nigerian soil. What exactly is happening in Nigeria? Hello and welcome to It Could Happen here. I'm Andrew sage andrewism on YouTube and I'm joined again by James I'm glad we're doing this one, yes, to talk about what's been happening in Nigeria since it has captured Trump's attention and thus Western media interest as of late. So first of all, what or where is Nigeria? According to Encyclopedia Britannica, Nigeria is a West African country with a diverse geography and an even more diverse population. Hundreds of languages, hundreds of ethnic groups, several religions. In the most populous country in Africa and one of the most populous countries in the world, over 239 million people call Nigeria home, and the Nigerian Diaspora is well over 10 million strong. Like much of Africa, Nigeria is rich in natural resources, particularly petroleum and natural gas, but heavily exploited by international and local capital. Thus, much of its population, by some estimates over half of its population, is considered multidimensionally poor. Modern Nigeria was stitched together from the British protectorates of northern and southern Nigeria and had gained its political independence only recently, in 1960, and became a republic in 1963. That north south divide is particularly relevant because it continues to define Nigerian politics today. Nigeria splits almost evenly between its Christian population, which dominates the south, and its Muslim population, which dominates the North. Alongside ethnic, linguistic and other political divisions, corruption and all the other baggage of a typical neo colony has made Nigerian politics quite the powder keg of some time. There have been tragic and deadly episodes of political and religious violence throughout Nigeria's history. Going in both directions, including the 1987 crisis in Kaduna State, and the early 2000s had several notorious riots and massacres as well, including the Yelwa massacre and the Joss riots. Link in the show notes for the details on those. Since 2009, however, militant Islamist group Boko Haram has engaged in a protracted insurgency against the Nigerian government and terrorised the Christian and Muslim population through bombings, assassinations and abductions with the overall intent of establishing an Islamic breakaway state in North Nigeria. But for the past few months, there has been a concerted effort to paint a narrative of Christian genocide in Nigeria, a narrative that has long been co signed by the likes of Donald Trump. See, back in 2018, Trump had actually called out the killing of Christians in Nigeria, yet stopped short of calling it a genocide. But according to an article by Ayoola Babola on the myth of Christian genocide, it was not long after Nigerian Vice President Kashim Shatima's September 2025 remarks at the 80th session of the UN General assembly, where he reasserted Nigeria's long standing solidarity with Palestine, that the Western, largely pro Israel far right began their campaign of claiming Christian genocide in Nigeria. In his address, Shatima did mention the problems Nigeria was having with extremism. But these commentators are running with a much more specific narrative. The same people who deny the Palestinian genocide and prop up the mythical white genocide in South Africa have gone on to push this Christian genocide story. Bill Maier, the guy who still can't prove the claims he made about October 7, has gone on to tell people that what's happening in Nigeria is, to paraphrase, so much more of a genocide than what's happening in Gaza. End quote. In late October and early November 2025, Trump tweeted that Christianity is facing an existential threat in Nigeria, named Nigeria as a country of particular concern, and announced the United States was ready, willing and able to save our great Christian population around the world. And for some reason, Nicki Minaj is out there backing Trump's Christian persecution narrative as well.

James (7:20)

Perfect.

Andrew Sage (7:21)

Why are you in it?

James (7:24)

Yeah, just to be clear, for anyone who's not aware, Nicki Minaj, not a person from Nigeria or with any particular insight into the situation there, she's also not Trinidadian.

Andrew Sage (7:33)

I just want to clear that up. Yes, her birth certificate is from the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, but we do not claim her since her statements about how Covid and the vaccine and her cousin's balls, like from that moment onward, people have been like distancing themselves from hell in Trinidad anyway.

James (7:52)

I can see why.

Andrew Sage (7:54)

So in November 2025, according to a BBC report, Trump also said that he would send troops into Nigeria, guns a blazing, if its government continues to allow the killing of Christians. Then in December 2025, according to another BBC report, the US has launched strikes on 25 December as a Christmas present against militants in the Islamic State group in northwestern Nigeria. What should be noted though is they did not strike Boko Haram, which is based in northeast Nigeria.

James (8:25)

Yeah, it was really interesting to look at the build. I wrote about this a bit for my newsletter, but the US was flying intelligence gathering flights essentially for some time over Nigeria. Right. Clearly, like there must have been some kind of agreement with the Nigerian government to allow this. Right. But they were clearly trying to identify like where Iswap and Boko Haram were and like you could see them winding up to this strike and then. Yeah, I guess they waited till Christmas day to go for it.

Andrew Sage (8:54)

Yeah, yeah. So there was the Christmas present of the US bomb in there.

James (9:00)

Yeah.

Andrew Sage (9:00)

And this happened less than a week, by the way, after the alliance of Sahel States, that being Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali commissioned a joint military force of 5,000 counterterrorists. And that move was following the Economic Community of West African states, or ECOWAS, plan to launch a 260,000 member counterterrorism force. So there's a lot of military action happening in West Africa right now, coming from the inside and the outside. In a January 2026 report, Trump claimed, I'd love to make it a one time strike, but if they continue to kill Christians, it will be a many time strike, end quote. Trump has also accused the Nigerian government, as I said, of repeatedly failing to protect Christians. So Trump is a known liar. Take everything he says with a grain of salt, as is the rest of his administration in general, you really can't trust politicians and pundits.

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Andrew Sage (13:39)

So let me break down what is actually happening in Nigeria. The Nigerian government has said that Muslims, Christians and those of no faith alike are targeted. According to Ayoula Wawalula, the government of Nigeria is indeed failing to adequately address the devastation being wrought against communities in Nigeria. But critically, it is not religious in nature. Or rather, religion is only a part of the picture. It can be used to explain the whole story on the ground. So there are several groups wreaking havoc in North Nigeria. You have a few different Islamic State affiliated groups. You have Boko Haram, which is the main one. And you also have the conflict between the Fulani herdsmen, who are mostly Muslim, and various farming groups who may be Christian or Muslim. So where the herdsmen are concerned, that kind of conflict has actually been taking place between the herders and the settled people for literal centuries. The only difference is that now you have them carrying AK47s instead of just sticks and machetes. Yeah, how they got those AK47s is really thanks to the history of the West's intervention in Africa. But we'll get to that in a moment. Critically though, if you step outside of the religious Freeman, you would see a criminal economic and political motivation behind these actions. They may be going after land or want to extract ransom or pursue a particular political goal. The Muslims in North Nigeria are not safe just because they're Muslim. Boko Haram's victims are mostly Muslim because Boko Haram's target is anyone who stands between them and their political aims. Everyone who isn't Boko Haram or aligned with Islamic State West African Province is considered an enemy. One article on Trump's beef with Nigeria by Youssef Bangura talks about six types of violence in the country. We have the Boko Haram Islamist inspired violence in the northeast whose main victims are Muslims who reject the group's Islamist ideology. We have the banditry in the northwest which affects Muslims and Christians in equal measure. We have the herder farmer conflict in the Middle Belt which affects Christians and Muslims, although reports indicate that Christians are the main victims of that violence. You have the Hooda farmer violence in the northwest which is distinct from the Huda farmer violence in the Middle belt. So the one in the northwest has Fulani Hudas, reportedly pitched against Hausa farmers. And both groups are Muslim. You have the violence inflicted by the indigenous people of Biafra and bandits in the east against their own people, Igbos, who are Christian. And you also have general banditry in large parts of the country, which has rendered travelling by roads between cities very risky. So there's been a lot of Western attention drawn to just some of the victims, the churches, the church leaders and the Christian communities, even though mosques and imams and Muslim communities and animists have also been devastated. And it's turned a multifaceted violence into a narrative of targeted anti Christian violence, seemingly at least from the Trump and Zionist camp, for the purpose of demonising Muslims and I guess in some convoluted way weakening global support for Palestinians, because Palestinians are also Muslim. So they're all the same. I dunno, that's just speculation on my part. Even Christian leaders in Nigeria have been calling out this framing, though. Archbishop Matthew Manoso Nagoso was quoted extensively in an article for Aid to the Church in Need, which is an international Catholic organisation. Rather than pinning the blame on Islam, he said, in the Northwest, the farmers are mostly Muslims and they also have conflicts with the Fulani as moving the Middle Belt. It is inhabited mostly by Christians, so there it will most likely be a Christian farm. Religion and ethnicity are very sensitive problems in Nigeria. They are always used for convenience. But primarily this conflict is not religious. I am absolutely sure if you apply for a job and you don't get it, you might say you were rejected because you were a Christian and the same for Muslims. Opportunists such as politicians, use these factors to their own advantage. But if you go to the root, you discover it is little or nothing to his religion. End quote.

James (17:44)

That's an excellent analysis from the Church. I'm surprised it came from that source, but I'm glad it did, you know?

Andrew Sage (17:50)

Yeah. Catholic Church of all places.

James (17:52)

Yeah.

Andrew Sage (17:54)

So he even claims that the kidnappings of priests have little to do with religion. And I'll quote him again. In the last three years, seven of my priests have been kidnapped, two have been killed and one has been in captivity for three years and two months. Four were released. In 50 of my parishes, priests cannot stay in their rectories because they are targets. They are seen as an easy source of money for ransom. So he's emphasizing there that it's really about the money that the Church is perceived to be able to provide to these kidnappers, more so than any religious targeting in particular. Of course, that is only one archbishop's perspective on the situation. I think Babalola makes an important point in his article on the myth that I would like to quote as well. Crucially, Christians at times become the chosen targets in particular assaults. Churches have been attacked during worship pre seducted and entire Christian villages raised in Plateau, Benue and southern Kaduna. These episodes are not separate from the general crisis, but are rather moments when Christian identity is weaponized to mark a community for terror. In this sense, Christians bear both the general weight of insecurity shared by all Nigerians and the sharper trauma of faith based targeting in certain attacks. But Mabalula doesn't forget that these groups terror has a severe impact on the Muslims as well. In fact, he makes an important comparison I wanted to highlight which is that in areas ravaged by armed groups, the first victims tend to be those who have religious or ethnic groups in common with the militants killed because they are seen as infidels or not noble enough or not committed enough to the ideals of that movement. If you look at the history of Zionism in the Middle east, for example, before the founding of the state of Israel, there were bombings of several Jewish heritage sites across the Middle East. And records have later showed that they were carried out by terroristic Jewish gangs who sought to instill a fear in Jewish communities across the region to sow discord between the Jewish communities and their neighbors for the purpose of forcing them to abandon these Middle Eastern states and relocate to Israel to further Israel's economic and geopolitical goals. Yeah, so it's not unheard of for a group to target its own core religionists for its geopolitical economic ambitions.

James (20:19)

If we talk about specifically the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Right. ISIS as opposed to the Islamic State in West Africa, like it killed more Muslims than anyone else, Right?

Andrew Sage (20:28)

Exactly.

James (20:29)

Those were the bulk of the people it murdered.

Andrew Sage (20:31)

We could even look at a very old historical example, the Latin Crusade. You had all these Christians from Europe going on a crusade and because they didn't get paid, they decided to ransack their core religionists in Greece and you know, in the wider Byzantine Empire and eventually, you know, deconstruct the Byzantine Empire entirely and establish their own Latin Empire. Yeah, so I didn't want to gloss over the real challenges that Christians specifically are facing in North Nigeria. Though since 1999, Sharia law has been introduced and enforced in 12 northern states. And according to the same archbishop that I quoted earlier, this has ensured that religious persecution in the north is systemic. He said, and I quote, I cannot build a church. Even if you buy land, you cannot get a permission of occupancy and therefore you cannot build in many of these states do not allow the teaching of Christianity. Yet the government employs and pays imams to teach in schools every year. They have money to build mosques in the budget, but they will not let you build churches. In my state there is a university and across the street there are five mosques and no church. Who wanted to build one. They didn't allow it. If you build a church without permission, the government can tear it down. And this is what we are going through. It is serious. We want our government to be held accountable for people to be treated equally. End quote. So again, religious conflict is still part of the picture, but not in the way that Western governments are painting. What's happening is these issues are being amplified by opportunists and far right lobbyists and as I established earlier, we should be addressing where these terror groups have even come from because the West's hands are not clean in that picture either. Groups like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State have known connections in their history to Western Midland and American policy in Africa has at least indirectly armed these groups. Thanks to the fall of Gaddafi in Libya and the American led destabilization of other Muslim countries in Southwest Asia and North Africa, the death squads armed with AKs that are dispersed across the Sahel region, victimising Africans of all faiths, owe at least some of their firepower to that Western intervention to the flow of arms coming out of Libya. The west has repeatedly shown that it is not caring for people's lives.

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Andrew Sage (26:30)

So what is the real beef that Trump and co have with Nigeria? Well, according to Bangor's article, Trump is not feeling the fact that the US Is dependent on China for rare earths. And Nigeria is very resource rich when it comes to rare earths like lithium, cobalt nickel and all that other stuff. Chinese companies have invested more than US$1.3 billion in Nigeria's lithium processing industry, and Russia has grown leverage in the region thanks to their involvement with Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali. So in an effort to wean America off of China, Trump's been trying to after the deal the situation. So he signed agreements in Southeast Asia to increase the production and processing of rare earths and exports to the US he stepped in to broker peace deals between the DRC and Rwanda so the US can invest more in the DRC's minerals. And what Trump really would like in Nigeria's case is that Nigeria's President Tinubu is not playing ball with him, at least in this case. In Trump's eyes, Tinubu did not do enough to reverse Niger's military coup, and Tinubu did not let the US Relocate their Nigerien military base to Nigeria. Tinubu also didn't let Trump relocate deportees to Nigeria, even when Ghana, Rwanda, Eswatini, South Sudan and Uganda all accepted that. Furthermore, as I styled before, Nigeria continues to condemn Israel's genocide in Gaza now when it wants to. The US can't intervene in other countries without the talk about humanitarianism. You could look at Guatemala in 1954 when they tried to implement some land reforms, and that went against the United Food Company's interests. So the US invaded. And you also had the US willing to simply support whatever opposition exists in the country. Like in the Congo in 1961 against Patrice Lumumba, in Chile in 1973 against Salvador Allende, and in Iran in 1953 against Mohamed Mossadegh. So they will use humanitarian talk. Whether they use that talk or not, the results tend to be disastrous for the people in those countries. US Intervention sucks pretty much everywhere. Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, and more besides. So we can count on whatever Trump attempts in Nigeria being an abject failure. More recently, the United States announced it'll be sending a military team to Nigeria after a string of recent attacks, that being 200 troops. So we'll see what happens next. But it's clear that US intervention is not the solution, its intentions are definitely malicious. So what can the future be for the people of Nigeria? How can its people be free? Obviously the battle against these reactionary forces rages on, but military solutions and militarisation will not be enough. In fact, it carries some serious risk in the region as a whole in terms of escalation. An article by Ayodele Owolabi in Al Jazeera recognised that with Nigeria's entanglement with the US and the 260,000 strong ECOWAS force, the AES is going to feel threatened as it's trying to keep western influence out of the region. So there's a danger of future ecosystem deployments overlapping with AES operations and potentially leading to clashes. And if there isn't a de escalation of tensions between ecoas and AES, we could end up seeing interstate wars that would devastate communities in the region and give the insurgents opportunities to expand. It could very well set up another proxy battleground for global powers in some kind of new Cold war. So they have to find some way of avoiding this clash and see if they can build a cooperative security framework despite their vastly different interests.

James (30:20)

Yeah, to a degree we already see global powers. Right. Like Russia has been honing its most horrific war crimes in parts of West Africa for a long time. Right. With its private military contractors.

Andrew Sage (30:34)

Exactly.

James (30:35)

Ukraine has sent special forces to assist the people fighting against the Russian private military contractors. Like we've seen Nigeria's own government kill its own civilians in its counterterrorism operation. Like all of this just makes life less livable for people who are already like on the thick end of climate change for one thing, and have suffered under centuries of colonialism for another.

Andrew Sage (31:02)

So that's the geopolitic analysis I suppose. But in the long term I think there's much to be done to rebuild the revolutionary front within Nigeria, led by Nigerians themselves to chart another path for the future of the country away from a status of vassalage. Yeah, you know, left and left adjacent movements were very diminished in relevance and credibility after the end of military rule in Nigeria in 1999 due to several reasons that we could get into at another time. But by the time we got to the Narsars movement in 2020, left forces were present but didn't have the level of organisation and strategy necessary to rise to the occasion. But according to an article in Progressive International by Ayoola Babalola, there's potential for a resurgence. The End Bad governance movement had demonstrations in August, October 2024 which saw leftist groups like Take It Back and the Socialist Workers League play a central role in organising and mobilising protests. Unlike earlier moments, these groups articulated clearer demands, coordinated protest strategies and attempted to provide ideological direction. This is in spite of facing crackdowns and arrests of key figures in the left and progressive spaces. Of course, not everyone mobilising against Nigeria's struggling economic and political conditions are committed to left or left adjacent ideas. Still, the question remains unresolved. Can this renewed street level influence be transformed into lasting organisational power or will it repeat the cycle of mobilisation followed by fragmentation that has littered movements before it? This violence taking place in Nigeria is bound up with the violence taking place across the world. It is bound up in imperialist interests, in Kaplan's interest, in status interests and in petty tyrants interests. From Nigeria to Congo to Sudan to Palestine, violence and suppression tactics wielded in one place are often brought to another. Babalona says in his article that a genuine pursuit of justice must confront proximate perpetrators as well as the transnational systems of power that sustain them. What we must not allow is for the global perpetrators of criminality and terror to tell the world where to focus its attention. In other words, don't let the perpetrators of these violences tell you where to focus. We must look everywhere, look holistically at what's happening and put the power and solidarity in the hands of the people affected to resist that violence. That's all I have for today. As usual, all power to all people. Peace.

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Andrew Sage (33:51)

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