It Could Happen Here – “Oops All Gambling, Political Betting Joins the News”

Host: Garrison Davis (Cool Zone Media & iHeartPodcasts)
Date: December 9, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode examines the growing integration of prediction markets—platforms for political gambling—into mainstream news media. Host Garrison Davis traces the regulatory, political, and cultural developments that have led to the legitimization of political betting as both an information source and a mainstream consumer activity. The conversation covers the mechanics of these markets, insider trading risks, media complicity, and the social implications of turning real-world events into betting opportunities.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Prediction Markets Enter the Mainstream Newsroom

• Major outlets like CNN and CNBC have partnered with Kalshi, an online prediction (betting) market, integrating real-time gambling data into election coverage.
• This data is now displayed alongside, and sometimes in place of, traditional polling—without clarifying its gambling origin or explaining how the “odds” are calculated.
• Example: CNN data analyst Harry Enten routinely cites prediction market odds as concrete probabilities, rarely clarifying that these reflect gambler speculation rather than empirical data.

  [03:47] Harry Enten: “According to the Kalshi prediction market odds, we saw them at an 83% chance [for Democrats to take the House]... those odds have gone plummeting down... now we're talking about just a 63% chance...”

• Other networks, financial publications, and even Time and Sports Illustrated are leveraging similar platforms (Galactic, Polymarket).

2. How The Markets Actually Work

• Users bet YES/NO on the outcome of specific world events. Odds shift based on betting volume, not on objective analysis or polling.
• Trades are conducted using crypto, and are easy to circumvent bans via VPN—official bans in multiple countries have had little impact.

  [06:17] Shane Coplan (Polymarket CEO): “You make money if you're right, you lose money if you're wrong. And as a result it creates this information that's really useful for people.”

• Kalshi operates under a federal derivatives trading license; Polymarket (not registered with regulators) has been repeatedly fined and still continues to grow via offshore operations.

3. Regulatory and Political Entanglements

• After the Trump administration changes, regulatory scrutiny dropped:

  [14:51] Davis: “In summer 2025, Cash Patel's FBI and the CFTC under Trump dropped investigations into whether Polymarket was illegally allowing US users to place bets using VPNs. Shortly thereafter, Donald Trump Jr's venture capital firm invested in the platform and Trump Jr himself joined Polymarket's advisory board.”

• Both platforms are directly connected to the Trump family and investment arms; regulatory agencies have been either stymied or captured.

4. The Problem of Insider Trading

• These markets thrive on asymmetric information—sometimes outright encouraging insider trading:

  [16:15] Shane Coplan: “People going and having an edge to the market is a good thing... it’s an inevitability... there’s a lot of benefits from it and, you know, people will adapt.”

• Polymarket cannot reverse trades (they’re blockchain-based) and has no meaningful enforcement or disclosure.
• Memorable Moment: A user made $1M+ by betting on the order of Google’s 2025 “Year in Search,” likely with inside info.

5. Confounding Probabilities, Polls, and Gambling

• Political gambling odds are presented as if they’re robust probabilities—easily mistaken by the public for polling data.
• Host Garrison critiques media coverage, especially Anderson Cooper's and Harry Enten's, for muddling these crucial distinctions.

  [28:32] Nate Silver (blog excerpt): “I strongly disagree with the notion that prediction markets can serve as a good substitute for polls… both reporters and readers often confuse probabilities for poll results.” [33:03] Davis (on polling vs. betting odds): “He’s just authoritatively rattling off complete speculation on a Democrat victory as big screens display percentages... with ‘source: Kalshi’ in tiny text…”

• Historical cases (e.g., Cuomo’s heavily favored betting odds) demonstrate prediction market bias and error.

6. Media Complicity & Disinformation Dangers

• Media outlets use prediction market data to “fact-check,” blending speculation and reputable polling, increasing confusion.
• Platforms like Polymarket actively spread and circulate unverified predictions as “news,” with terms like “projected” which, in news, imply mathematical certainty, but here just mean “predicted by gamblers”.

  [43:09] Davis: "This becomes a Trojan horse of disinformation. When news companies use the term ‘projected’… it usually indicates with pretty clear mathematical certainty. When Polymarket uses 'projected'… it only indicates that Internet gamblers are swinging around money in an effort to create truth..."

7. Endgame: Financializing Everything

• Kalshi’s CEO makes the aims explicit:

  [41:03] Tarek Mansur (Kalshi Co-founder & CEO): “The long term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion.”

• The episode warns this logic would turn all speculation—political, social, or even humanitarian crises—into gambling fodder.

  [41:35] Davis: “This is the demon child of crypto and sports betting, this financialization of everything to form a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion…”

8. Host’s Critique and Warnings

• Garrison Davis calls for urgent federal regulation and a return to location- and time-limited gambling (e.g., Vegas, not the news cycle).
• The spread of unregulated, easily-abusable political gambling erodes public trust, incentivizes insider malfeasance and corruption, and normalizes gambling on human suffering as infotainment.
• Notable closing argument:

  [41:35] Davis: “Congress needs to be far more involved in regulating online betting and in the case of political events, it should just be completely banned. It is detrimental to a healthy society...”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote or Moment | |-----------|----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | [03:47] | Harry Enten | “According to the Kalshi prediction market odds, we saw them at an 83% chance... now we're talking about just a 63% chance...” | | [06:17] | Shane Coplan | “You make money if you're right, you lose money if you're wrong. And as a result it creates this information that's really useful for people.” | | [16:15] | Shane Coplan | “People going and having an edge to the market is a good thing... there’s a lot of benefits from it and, you know, people will adapt.” | | [18:58] | Nate Silver | “There are ones where... you can literally be the person who decides [an outcome]... and be betting on the side... People are going to find a way to do it.” | | [28:32] | Nate Silver | “I strongly disagree with the notion that prediction markets can serve as a good substitute for polls… reporters and readers often confuse probabilities...” | | [41:03] | Tarek Mansur | "The long term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion." | | [41:35] | Garrison Davis | “This is the demon child of crypto and sports betting... creating new addictive consumer habits.” | | [43:09] | Garrison Davis | "[Polymarket] is just spreading gambling information as if it is news content... this becomes a Trojan horse of disinformation." |

Critical Timestamps & Segments

• [02:15] – Davis lays out the partnerships between news networks and prediction markets.
• [09:47] – Regulatory struggles, global bans, and Polymarket’s workaround tactics.
• [14:51] – Political connections and removal of regulatory barriers under the Trump admin.
• [16:10-18:58] – Explainers and rationalizations for insider trading; Nate Silver weighs in.
• [21:37] – Anderson Cooper’s “60 Minutes” segment on prediction market “addictiveness.”
• [28:32] – Nate Silver’s blog clarifying why prediction markets should not be confused with polls.
• [31:54] – CNN’s display of Kalshi odds in real-time coverage, conflating betting and polling.
• [41:03] – Kalshi CEO on the “financialization of everything.”

Tone & Style

The episode maintains a critical, urgent, and slightly sardonic tone. Host Garrison Davis weaves in pointed critique, pop culture asides, and a consistent warning about the dangers of unregulated gambling embedded in both news and everyday digital life.

Summary

“Oops All Gambling” is a clarion call about the normalization of political prediction markets in both media and governance, warning of their corrosive effects on public discourse, democracy, and the news landscape. The steady legitimization and gamification of world events, compounded by insider trading and regulatory capture, threatens to turn civic participation into a casino—one easily manipulated by those with the most information, influence, or money. The episode argues forcefully for robust regulation and a re-examination of what it means to report and know the news in this new era.