It Could Happen Here — “Shipping Security in the Strait of Hormuz”

Podcast: It Could Happen Here
Date: March 16, 2026
Hosts: James Stout & Garrison Davis
Theme: The podcast delves into the rising threats and complexities surrounding maritime shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz amid renewed Iranian attacks, the surge of private military contractors at sea, and the broader implications for global trade and accountability.

Episode Overview

This episode unpacks the escalating security threats to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, focusing on Iran’s recent attacks on vessels, the historical evolution and current realities of private maritime security, and the broader geopolitical, legal, and ethical ramifications. James and Garrison offer both granular historical context and sharp commentary on how states and private actors shape the safety and insurability of global trade routes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current Events: Rising Danger in the Strait of Hormuz

• Iranian Attacks on Shipping:

  • Iran is actively attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and other sensitive areas; as of recording, at least six ships were targeted (02:44).
  • Attacks now include advanced tactics such as uncrewed surface vessels (drones) and classic sea mines (35:52, 37:47).

• US Response Limitations:

  • The US has both offered and rescinded military escorts for shipping, unable to provide consistent coverage for all vessels (03:42).
  • The situation mirrors historical precedents like the 1987 “Tanker War” and raises concerns about escalation and mistakes in a crowded, high-stakes environment (26:56).

2. The Rise and Role of Private Maritime Security

• Historical Background:

  • The use of private security on ships has deep roots but became more prominent in the 21st century due to legal loopholes at sea and the rise in modern piracy (03:50).

• Why Private Security Exists:

  • Flag of convenience loopholes (registering ships in countries such as Liberia, Panama, or Marshall Islands to avoid taxes, labor, and safety regulations) enable lax oversight, including allowing privately armed guards or contractors aboard (16:10–20:23).
  • “The reason that we can have private security contractors, often with machine guns, et cetera, on boats is the same reason that horrific labor abuses are perpetrated on boats on a daily basis.” — James (04:34)

• Piracy’s Evolution:

  • Modern piracy notably shifted from smash-and-grab heists in Southeast Asia to more organized Somali piracy — seizing vessels and crew for ransom.
  • The Maersk Alabama case exemplified the new era of piracy, with US Navy SEALS ultimately intervening (09:27–11:51).

• The Contractors and Their World:

  • Contractors are often ex-military from global north or countries like Colombia.
  • Offered services now extend beyond armed guards to intelligence and crisis response.
  • “Most of the security provided to boats in the world in general is not provided by states. It is provided by private military contractors.” — James (05:13)

• Legal and Accountability Void:

  • Due to ambiguous or absent state oversight, private military companies (PMSCs) operate with near impunity on the high seas.
  • “The state has more or less completely removed itself from this sphere and removed itself from doing anything approaching accountability.” — James (24:05)
  • Reporting and justice mechanisms for both violence and labor abuses at sea are weak or nonexistent.

• Tactics:

  • Early anti-piracy defenses included barbed wire, sonic weapons (lrad), and later on onboard armed teams (20:23–22:52).
  • “Floating armories” provide weapons and serve as mustering points for contractors in transit zones with legal restrictions (22:52–23:15).

3. Jurisdiction, Flags of Convenience, & Weak Oversight

• Flags of Convenience System:

  • Enables shipowners to bypass strict national regulations by registering ships in countries with few constraints (16:10–18:02).
  • In incidents (e.g., piracy or attack), flag states like Liberia are unable/unwilling to provide rescue or legal action.

• Industry Self-Policing:

  • Most standards are set within the industry, akin to police investigating themselves: “Standards for cops that the cops themselves set... generally not been the best means of accountability.” — James (24:05)
  • Lax reporting for shootings or deadly incidents.

4. Threats: From Pirates to Missiles—Contemporary Dangers

• Mine and Drone Tactics:
  • Iranian forces deploy WWII-style sea mines and remotely piloted suicide boats, making area denial simple and defense challenging (35:52–37:47).
• Swarming by Fast Attack Craft:
  • IRGC naval forces use numerous small, fast boats with machine guns or RPGs for swarming tankers (37:32–37:47).
  • "Even if that vessel has private security on board, the straightforward moves is 21 miles across. Like you could harass people if you had a jet ski." — James (37:32)
• Uninsurability as a Strategy:
  • Iran doesn’t need to sink every ship; making the strait “uninsurable” for commercial traffic could halt global trade:
    • “The Iranians only have to make transiting the Strait of Hormuz uninsurable to succeed.” — James (30:58)

5. Limits of State Power & Global Trade’s Cost

• US (and Other States) Capacity Gaps:

  • The US Navy lacks capacity to escort or protect all vessels, especially in such a geographically complex and crowded area (35:52).

• Changing Logic — State to Corporate Security:

  • Nations are choosing to cede monopoly on violence at sea, leaving lethal force, protection, and sometimes crisis-making to contractors focused on property, not public good (41:13).

• Human and Environmental Costs:

  • The risk of violence and environmental catastrophe (e.g., oil spills) is collateral to the imperative to “keep the treats moving,” i.e., maintain the flow of goods for consumer demand:
    • “It is wild that right now the solution of the global shipping industry seems to be some of these people will die, but that we will keep the oil moving and the treats moving.” — James (46:45)

• Historical Parallels:

  • References to the 1987 Tanker War, where US escorts and misjudgments led to disasters, such as the accidental shooting down of an Iranian civilian airliner (26:56–28:00).

6. Broader Reflections

• Anarcho-Capitalist Realities:
  • The open ocean increasingly resembles an “ancap future”—powerful actors, little oversight, and commodified violence (23:30, 23:32).
• Insider Commentary:
  • The hosts frequently step back to consider the moral ambiguity and multilayered interests (pirates, states, corporations, activists) present in this space.
• Calls for Accountability and Awareness:
  • Recommendations include listening to the "Outlaw Ocean" podcast for more on labor and maritime abuses (24:50, 29:30).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Private Security & Lawlessness at Sea:
  • "It is a vision of the ancap future that I don't love. That is very interesting." — James (23:32)
• On Flag of Convenience Reality:
  • "I'm guessing Liberia is not going to be of much assistance." — Garrison (17:59)
  • "Yeah, they're not coming. Yeah, yeah. The Liberian Navy is not available to help you..." — James (18:02)
• On Insurability as Vulnerability:
  • "The Iranians only have to make transiting the Strait of Hormuz uninsurable to succeed." — James (30:58)
• On State Power and Outsourcing Violence:
  • "The state has more or less completely removed itself from this sphere and removed itself from doing anything approaching accountability." — James (24:05)
  • "Some people will die, but we will keep the treats moving has been pretty much the status of the shipping industry for most of the 21st century." — James (47:26)
• Sarcastic Critique:
  • "Our flag means a complete lack of accountability. It could happen." — James (47:56)
  • “Shout out to Greenpeace for also patronizing these companies.” — James (43:29)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:44–03:39: Iran attacks vessels: background and urgency.
• 03:50–06:37: Why private maritime security is the norm, not the exception.
• 09:27–12:00: The Maersk Alabama: modern piracy’s turning point.
• 16:10–20:23: Flags of convenience, legal loopholes, and their consequences.
• 22:52–23:30: Floating armories and the world of maritime contractors.
• 24:05–25:00: Industry’s lack of accountability and weak legal standards.
• 26:56–29:30: Historical parallel: the 1987 Tanker War and state failures.
• 30:58–32:41: Shipping as an insurable/uninsurable proposition; state vs. private roles.
• 35:52–37:47: Iran's current means of attacking ships: mines, fast boats, and suicide drone vessels.
• 41:13–44:10: Systemic risk, human costs, and the limits of global trade logic.
• 46:45–47:53: Modern shipping’s human cost and the inevitability of violence for profit.

Tone & Style Notes

The conversation is unsparing, world-weary, and grimly tongue-in-cheek. While knowledgeable and sharp, the hosts insert dry humor alongside critiques of neoliberal globalism, state failure, and the cold calculations underpinning global trade and maritime security.

Further Resources & Recommendations

• Podcast: The Outlaw Ocean (for deeper dives on labor and security abuses at sea)
• Reading: JSTOR articles on private maritime security, flagged vessel regulations, and historical piracy case studies (per James’ mention; links in episode notes)

Closing Reflection

This episode is essential listening for anyone seeking to understand the intersection of military privatization, legal gray zones, and the hard boundaries of state power in the globalized world. As the Strait of Hormuz crisis unfolds, it exposes the high human and environmental costs embedded in the systems that keep trade flowing—costs likely to remain hidden until, perhaps, too late.