It Could Happen Here – "The Economics of the Tariff Regime"
Aired: October 22, 2025
Host: Mia Wong (Cool Zone Media and iHeartPodcasts)
Episode Overview
This episode, hosted by Mia Wong, takes a deep dive into the economic and structural factors driving the current global turn toward high steel tariffs, especially in the context of the "second Trump regime." Rather than focusing on the week-to-week news of fluctuating tariffs or the blow-by-blow of negotiations, Wong explores the macroeconomic roots and ideological justifications behind tariff regimes, especially the enduring focus on steel overcapacity. The aim is to trace how overcapacity, particularly in steel, serves as a window into the broader crises and contradictions of global capitalism, and to challenge the narrative that pins economic woes solely on the policies of other nations—chiefly China.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Why Focus on Steel? (04:30–07:00)
- Steel as the Emblem of Tariff Policy: Steel is the most 'material' of all tariffed industries, with significant direct lobbying in the US. Tariffs on steel are both historically and symbolically important in US policy.
- Stability of Steel Tariffs: While tariffs on other goods have fluctuated ("Liberation Day tariffs" coming and going), steel tariffs remain steady at 50% in the US and are now mirrored by similar measures in the EU (06:30).
"Steel is in some ways emblematic of American tariff policy... the most material of the tariffs... the one where there's the most actual direct sort of material forces and direct lobbying groups..." — Mia Wong [04:30]
The Trouble with Measuring Overcapacity (07:00–12:30)
- Defining Overcapacity: The "correct" amount of steel is nebulous and highly politicized. Utilization rates are misleading due to seasonality, labor availability, demand, and weather.
- Bias in Numbers: Western estimates of Chinese steel overcapacity are often inflated for ideological reasons; Chinese official numbers may be too conservative, as both reflect the interests of their respective governments.
- Chinese Awareness: Despite public-facing denials, the Chinese Communist Party internally acknowledges and seeks solutions to steel overcapacity for ecological and economic reasons.
"I think the numbers you normally see in the west are inflated... what's interesting is that the Chinese government was... making attempts to reduce it during this period of trade war." — Mia Wong [10:30]
Political Roots of Overcapacity (12:30–18:00)
- Cadre Incentives in China: Local Chinese leaders (cadres) are ranked on performance, with heavy weight given to GDP growth. This fosters perverse incentives to boost GDP through excess steel production, regardless of demand.
"You can boost GDP numbers by making a shit ton of steel that nobody actually really wants or uses." — Mia Wong [15:30]
- Falling Out of Favor: Explaining these nuanced mechanics doesn't fit the simple 'unfair competition' narrative preferred in US policy debates.
Structural Underconsumption & Inequality (21:30–25:00)
- Wealth Distribution: Another (now less popular) argument is that China's top-heavy wealth distribution suppresses internal consumption. Had wages been raised, more steel would be consumed domestically (e.g., in homebuilding), reducing surplus.
- Global Parallels: This is not unique to China; the US faces similar problems of stagnating wages and insufficient demand relative to production potential.
"The Chinese economy is extremely highly unequal... If there was better distribution of wealth, people would buy more houses and this would actually reduce overcapacity because suddenly a bunch of the slack capacity would be to, like, build houses—except people can't afford the houses." — Mia Wong [22:45]
The Dominant (But Flawed) Narrative: State Subsidies and 'Cheating' (25:00–28:56)
- State Subsidization Frame: The US and allied countries fixate on the idea that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China are propped up by unfair subsidies, leading to gluts of cheap steel on global markets.
- Market Myth: This obscures the fact that all advanced economies subsidize their industries (e.g., US corn policy), and overlooks larger global trends.
"The argument here basically is that the state is propping up a bunch of unprofitable enterprises... This is the political imperative that's behind a lot of the rhetoric coming out of steel producers and out of the American right about why there should be tariffs on steel." — Mia Wong [26:30]
- Global Nature of Overcapacity: The crisis of overcapacity isn't unique to China but is a feature of global capitalism since at least the 1970s, tied to shifts in capital, labor, and international policy maneuvers (e.g., the Plaza and reverse Plaza Accords).
Zero-Sum Production & Capitalist Crisis (29:00–38:00)
- Zero-Sum Dynamics: Modern production increases in one region often lead to declines elsewhere due to stagnant or falling global demand—so "gains" are redistributed rather than genuinely expanded.
"Production has become zero sum. Right? It's very difficult to increase production in one country without having it... affect production in other countries. There isn't enough demand in the market to sort of like fuel all of these things." — Mia Wong [29:05]
Marxian Analysis: The Double Crisis of Overproduction and Underconsumption (33:45–45:00)
- Wage as Allocator: Drawing on Marxist theory, Wong explains how wages simultaneously determine what is produced and who can consume—so chronic underconsumption and overproduction become the same crisis.
- Falling Profit, Structural Unemployment: As automation displaces workers and capital accumulates, formal employment shrinks, consumption plummets, and overcapacity becomes chronic—this "immiseration" is no longer an academic hypothesis, but our lived reality.
- Failed Escapes: The US strategy of tech/AI bubble growth is a temporary band-aid destined to implode ("If you want to listen to why that's all going to go to shit, turn on literally any episode of Cool Zone Media's own Ed Zitron's podcast Better Offline" — [41:00]).
- Nationalist Deflection: Blaming China for global economic contradictions is a political maneuver to maintain nationalist and capitalist power structures.
"It's a way of deflecting the blame from capitalism onto another country and using nationalism to paper over the actual economic contradictions of capital." — Mia Wong [44:35]
Vision for Change (44:00–45:20)
- Fundamental Problem—Wage Relation: Fixing trade policy isn't enough. The root issue is the wage-based structure that enables owners to extract value from labor.
- Call to Action: Justice means dismantling the system empowering capitalists and oligarchs, not tinkering with tariffs or regime change alone.
"You have to actually structurally change the thing at the center of all this, which is the wage relation... are we going to sit here and let them continue to produce AI videos of them shitting all over us while they take all of our money and commit an ethnic cleansing and continue to fund genocides abroad? It could happen." — Mia Wong [44:30]
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
-
On Steel as Policy Symbol:
"Steel is in some ways emblematic of American tariff policy... the most material of the tariffs..."
— Mia Wong [04:30] -
On GDP-Boosting Incentives:
"You can boost GDP numbers by making a shit ton of steel that nobody actually really wants or uses."
— Mia Wong [15:30] -
On Global Structural Issues:
"Production has become zero sum... There isn't enough demand in the market to sort of like fuel all of these things."
— Mia Wong [29:05] -
On Deflection via Nationalism:
"It's a way of deflecting the blame from capitalism onto another country and using nationalism to paper over the actual economic contradictions of capital."
— Mia Wong [44:35] -
On the True Target for Reform:
"You have to actually structurally change the thing at the center of all of this, which is the wage relation..."
— Mia Wong [44:15]
Major Segment Timestamps
- [04:30–07:00] — Origins and symbolism of steel tariffs
- [07:00–12:30] — Complexities and politicization of steel overcapacity statistics
- [12:30–18:00] — Political incentives for overcapacity: local cadre evaluations
- [21:30–25:00] — How inequality and low wages drive underconsumption
- [25:00–28:56] — Dominant narrative: Chinese SOE subsidies and fair play myth
- [29:00–38:00] — Historical roots of global steel overcapacity and zero-sum dynamics
- [33:45–45:00] — Marxist analysis and the double crisis of overproduction and underconsumption
- [44:00–45:20] — The necessity of structural change over nationalist or technocratic fixes
Memorable Moments
-
Wong’s Dig at Tech Exceptionalism:
Referencing the US AI/tech bubble as the "last fake vestiges of economic growth," Wong predicts its impending implosion, sending listeners to fellow Cool Zone Media podcast "Better Offline" for further critique [41:00]. -
Closing Rhetorical Spike:
The episode ends with a robust call to confront the capitalist class, naming Trump, Elon Musk, Thiel, the Koch networks, and dismissing piecemeal reforms in favor of radical transformation [44:00–45:21].
Tone and Style
Mia Wong delivers a heady, critical, and slightly acerbic Marxist analysis, blending economic history, academic theory, and sharp political critique. The tone is urgent, polemical, and frequently darkly humorous, with references tailored to both leftist-activist and broadly progressive listeners.
Bottom Line
This episode argues that the current obsession with tariffs—especially on steel—disguises much deeper global crises of capitalism, overcapacity, and inequality. Rather than scapegoating China or retreating into nationalist policies, Wong insists the only lasting solution is to dismantle the wage-based class system that underlies these recurring crises.