Transcript
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Guaranteed Human. I'm Clayton Eckerd. In 2022, I was the lead of ABC's the Bachelor.
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But here's the thing. Bachelor fans hated him.
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That's when his life took a disturbing turn. A one night stand would end in a courtroom.
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The media is here. This case has gone viral. The dating contract.
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Agree to date me, but I'm also suing you.
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This is unlike anything I've ever seen before.
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I'm Stephanie Young. Listen to Love trapped on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Then she says, have you seen a
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Safeway and Albertsons have made saving easier than ever with great savings on family favorites this week at Safeway and Albertsons. USDA choice beef, boneless, tri tip, whole or flankin style ribs bone in are $6.99 per pound member price at and asparagus are 199 per pound member price plus 16 ounces strawberries. 6 ounces raspberries or blackberries are 197 each. Limit three member price with digital coupon. Hurry in. These deals won't last. Visit Safeway or albertsons.com for more deals and ways to save.
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Welcome to Ikarap and here a podcast about tariffs and how to justify them. I am your host Mia Wong and today we are talking about tariffs, the Supreme Court ruling, and how Trump is manufacturing a crisis to justify the next set of tariffs that he has imposed. Oh boy. So, all right, to recap our last tariff segment so people understand what I'm talking about when I talk about the Supreme Court ruling from a few weeks ago. So Trump had been claiming the ability to do tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers act, an act that famously never says the word tariff. And the Supreme Court was like, no, actually the International Economic Powers act does not give you the power to levy tariffs. A thing that it does not say that you can do. So Trump got extremely mad about this and he imposed a 10% tariff across the board, using a different law, as he said he was going to do. Now, this 10% across the board tariff was run through section 122 of the Trade act of 1974. We're going to get into that. Okay, so he imposes a 10% tariff using this, like, different authority from section 122. And the next day he goes, I'm going to raise the tariff rate to 15%. And this is the tariff rate on the entire world. But then he just forgot to do it because he got distracted by, I think, invading Iran. So he has never actually, you know, raised the tariff rate to 15%, which he said that he had done. So it's now just at 10% on the entire world instead of, you know, all of the sort of individual country tariffs that have been in place before. And that's sort of the focus of today's episode is about these tariffs, because these tariffs are already being challenged in court. And I think that that challenge has a very, very good chance of winning fairly easily. And the reason that those tariffs have a very good chance of being overturned by the courts is that unlike the IEPA tariffs that he was using, where he was claiming illegally the authority to just do whatever he wanted, this is why you would wake up in the morning and there's like 100% tariff on China, like 700% tariff on Vietnam, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Trump was claiming that that act let him do whatever he wanted. It did not. The court found that he did not. But that was how he was using tariffs, and it was the basis of how he was using tariffs for diplomacy. Right. You know, he would put a tariff on someone at random, claiming this power, and then he would, like, enter negotiations with them, and he can't do that anymore. Now what he's done in its place is again, impose these tariffs using section 122 of the Trade Act. Now, this authority is very, very different than the authority Trump was claiming before. I'm just going to read it because it mostly explains itself. Do not worry about the international payment problems or balanced payments deficit that it mentions at the beginning. We're going to go over that in a second. What's important for our purposes here is that in order to put tariffs into effect whenever fundamental international payment problems require special import measures to restrict imports. One, to deal with large and serious United States balance of payments deficits, two, to prevent an imminent and significant depreciation of the dollar in foreign exchange markets, or 3, to cooperate with other countries in correcting an international balance of payments disequilibrium, the President shall proclaim for a period not exceeding 150 days, unless such a period is extended by an act of Congress a temporary surcharge not to exceed 15% ad valorem in the form of duties in addition to those already opposed, if any, on articles imported into the U.S. okay, so let's look at the limits first. Right. Instead of any rate of tariff on any country, which is what Trump had been doing, section 122 only lets you set an up to 15% tariff on every country in the world and only lasts for 150 days unless Congress votes to approve it. This sets up a giant fight in Congress that Trump is not going to win. Now, we may never get to that point because the same right wing legal group who funded the lawsuit that overturned the IEPA stuff is going after section 122. And they're going to win. Now. They're going to win because section 122 has literally never been implemented before. The tariffs specifically never been implemented. And there is a reason for that. And the reason is that to even deploy Section 122 tariffs in the first place, you need fundamental international payment problems. One, to deal with large and serious United States balance of payments deficits, to print dollar depreciation, and cooperation with other countries to correct international balance of payments disequilibrium. So those are very specific conditions. What does that mean? What does it mean for there to be a problem with balance of payments? This requires us to understand what the fuck balance of payments is. And it is here where I am fulfilling my promise from that executive disorder episode where I said I would explain it in the full episode. All right, we're doing it and oh fucking boy, are you in for it because. Jesus Christ. Oh my God. Holy shit. This stuff is annoyingly convoluted, but it is also extremely important to how the global economy functions, how it's changed. And you know, it's not really relevant for the US at all for reasons we will get into, but it is extremely relevant for the economies of a bunch of developing countries. So, okay, let's start off with balance of payments. So what is the balance of payments? I'm just going to start off by quoting the St. Louis Federal Reserve. Balance of payments is a summary of all the transactions involving goods, services and investments between one country and all other countries over a given time. Any transaction that causes money to flow into a country is a credit to balance payment accounts, and any transaction that causes flows out is a debit. So this is a Record of literally every purchase and capital movement that goes in and out of a country, right? So it's goods, services, debt payments and things can either be credits or debits, as the Fed explains. You know, things that are debits, right? Things that like make your account go lower is, you know, debt payments, capital transfer payments, like buying imports. If you were importing stuff from China, that is a debit. And then there are things that are credits that make account go up. So that's other countries paying for exports, capital transfer receipts and you know, financial assets. That's other countries paying for your exports. So this is tracked in like two accounts. There's a capital and finances account. I'm just gonna call it the capital account because that's the most common name for it and it's shorter. So there's the capital account that is all movement of capital in and out of the country. And then there's a current account which is like a trade record of all goods and services. Technically. There's also stuff from like interest from investment goes there, but we don't really care about that for our purposes. The current account is the account that's like trade. And then there's a capital account which is the account that's all of the capital moving in and out. Now importantly, these two accounts, right? These two accounts compose balance of trade, right? This, this record has two accounts in it. Those are the two accounts. If you line up all the credits and debits and then they Cancel out =0, the value of all goods being imported or exported to services and stuff like that too is the same as the amount of capital moving in and out of the country that the two accounts will cancel out. And this is what's really confusing about balance of payments, because why the fuck is that true, right? Why are the capital flows and trade balance. Why can't you have an imbalance? And the answer is that's how the accounting system works. And the reason the accounting system works like that is because of what balance of payments is. Now weirdly, if you want a more detailed explanation, there are a billion detailed explanations that are extremely convoluted and annoying. The Reserve bank of Australia weirdly has like a readable one for people who aren't like engrossed in financial stuff, however, come up. I'm going to try to explain it. So balance of payments is the record of everything that moves in and out of a country, you know, so that's goods, that's services, that's money, it's stocks. When I say it tracks Everything, right? It's a record of everything. That means it's recording both sides of a transaction. So what does that mean? Okay, imagine a receipt, right? It's a receipt for a burger. You have bought one hamburger. On the receipt is the thing you bought the burger and how much it cost, which is the money you pay for it. Balance of payments tracks both the burger and the money you paid for it because it tracks international trade, right? It's tracking international movement of stuff. And because both the burger and the money changed hands across borders, right? It tracks both of them. And that is why when you put all the credits and debits from both accounts together, it adds up to zero, right? Because you know, think, think about like the, the net transfer of funds on that burger, right? On the one hand there is the burger and on the other hand there is, you know, how much money you paid for the burger and those two things are equivalent, right? The value of the burger is how much it's worth. So okay, that means that in the accounting of it, right, the account on the receipt which shows both of these things is balanced because it's tracking both them, right? And this is the same way it works for an investment. You buy shares of a company. So, okay, there's the money for the shares and the shares themselves and they're both being tracked and they both go into the record that balance of payments keeps. So there are some convoluted things about this. And this is the reason why you need to combine both accounts instead of each account being balanced by themselves. Because sometimes the record of the burger goes in one account and the record of the money for that burger goes in a different account. This is convoluted. It's because of like how income is classified. It's a mess. You can go read the Reserve bank of Australia. But that's why you need both accounts together to get the balance of payments, right? Because both the burger and the money for the burger are in the balance of payments somewhere, but they might go in different accounts. So you need to put them together and that's how you get the balance of payments. And see, that's why it's called the balance of payments, right? They balance out. See, now you're getting it. Now you're getting it. This is why it always balances out to zero, because it's the balance of both the money and the object, right? So sharp eared listeners may be going, wait, hold on. So section 122, which is where the tariffs are from, is about a deficit in the balance of payments. How can you have a deficit if it always balances out to zero? And the answer is, technically speaking, you can't. So okay, what the fuck is going on here? Why is Trump using and Trump specifically is claiming that there's a balance of payments deficit and there's a crisis in order to impose these tariffs. So what is going on here? Why does this law exist? You will find out after these ads. Woo Cliffhanger A.
