Podcast Summary: It Could Happen Here – "What's Next for Iran?"

Date: March 4, 2026
Host: Cool Zone Media & iHeartPodcasts
Featured Guest: Gordayin, journalist from (Iranian) Kurdistan, based in Germany

Episode Overview

This episode offers a firsthand account and critical analysis of the recent, massive escalation of armed conflict in Iran, following Israeli and US bombing campaigns in Tehran and beyond. Host and guest delve into on-the-ground experiences, examine the rapidly shifting political and military landscape, and highlight the complex realities facing civilians, especially in Kurdistan and among Iran’s minorities. They also discuss the future—both in terms of potential new leadership and implications for ethnic groups and regional stability.

1. Summary of Recent Events (00:31–09:53)

Key Developments:

• Israeli military launched a surprise attack on central Tehran, targeting Bayt Erahbari (Supreme Leader Khamenei’s residence) during a key meeting of Iranian officials (00:52).
• Soon after, Israeli PM Netanyahu announced Khamenei's death on TV, sparking both panic and anticipation, later confirmed by Iranian state media (01:21).
• US joined Israel in a coordinated bombing campaign focusing on IRGC and government-associated targets across Iran, particularly Tehran and other major cities (02:10).
• Iran retaliated by attacking US bases and facilities in neighboring countries (UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan), initially focusing on military, then also hitting civilian areas like hotels and random buildings (02:38).
• Missiles/drones were also launched against Israel, most intercepted, and British military facilities in Cyprus were hit via projectiles from Lebanon (03:44).
• Civilian fallout: airports and borders closed, civilians trapped, power outages, significant infrastructure and property damage, and at least one civilian death reported in Doha (05:39).

"What's going on right now is a full scare war. And I think when you look at it, it's nothing like what we've seen before. If you want to compare it to what happened in Iraq, the US invasion, this is completely different... because Iran is a very big country and there are hundreds or maybe thousands of points across the country that have been targeted with heavy bombings."
—Gordayin (04:03)

2. Life on the Ground: Civilian Impact (06:01–09:53)

Insights:

• Iran has cut off internet and most phone lines, making accurate information from within heavily restricted (06:22).
• Bombing is widespread, especially against IRGC and intelligence facilities, many embedded in civilian areas leading to likely high civilian casualties—hard to confirm due to communications blackout (06:59).
• Widespread panic: people stockpiling food, experiencing shortages in essential goods (oil, meat, rice) and gasoline; many are sheltering at home or fleeing cities for rural areas (08:55).

"The regime has put all these bases inside the cities, near parks, near hospitals... So a lot of people are possibly killed, but we don't know how many. Who are they?"
—Gordayin (07:33)

3. Forced Military Service: The Plight of Ordinary Soldiers (09:54–12:39)

Highlights:

• Military service is mandatory for young men in Iran; many are conscripted and stationed at bases now under heavy attack (10:08).
• Casualties are expected among these conscripts, who are not regime loyalists but ordinary civilians forced into uniform.
• Personal story: Gordayin’s cousin, forced to serve, narrowly survived a bombing and then went home, refusing to return to the base, illustrating the moral dilemma and personal risk for these conscripts (11:02).

"All those young men who are forced to be in the military bases... They are absolutely not a part of the regime. They are just civilians who are forced into this."
—Gordayin (12:18)

4. The Structure of the Iranian State & Ethnic Minorities (12:39–19:35)

Analysis:

• Iran's power structure resembles a monarchy with religious hierarchy: the Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority, with real power concentrated among clerics, the IRGC, and affiliated councils—parliamentary structures are "for show" (14:28–15:32).
• The IRGC is not just a militia but controls large parts of the economy and every institution from post offices to hospitals, embedding itself deeply in society (16:12–18:15).
• Iran is an ethnically diverse country, with Persians, Kurds, Baluchis, Arabs, and others; many are excluded from power and opposed to the regime (13:37–14:28).
• Civilian suffering is exacerbated by regime's strategic placement of military assets in civilian areas (15:40–16:12).

5. What’s Next: Leadership, International Interference, and Uncertainty (19:35–23:07)

Discussion Points:

• Many top Iranian leaders (including Khamenei) confirmed dead. Israel/US could try to install a new leader, similar to past interventions (e.g., Venezuela), but it's unclear who that might be in Iran (19:35–21:04).
• No obvious "puppet" candidate: exile Reza Pahlavi lacks broad support, especially among ethnic minorities (21:06–22:53).
• US appears to be in early talks with Kurdish parties and ethnic leaders, but regional alliances and US plans remain opaque; risk of further conflict if unpopular leaders are imposed (22:27–23:07).

"If they want to install Reza Pahlavi, the ethnic groups will not accept it, and there's going to be more resistance and therefore more wars."
—Gordayin (22:53)

6. Kurdish Movements and Prospects of Autonomy (23:07–29:52)

Key Points:

• Kurdish political parties in Iranian Kurdistan (including a new alliance of five) preparing for further conflict, cooperating more closely than in the past despite some disagreements (24:53–25:40).
• Their goals involve autonomy and self-determination, but they voice deep concern about the US or other powers sacrificing their interests for broader geopolitical aims.
• Kurds stand ready to resist both the old regime and any potentially imposed new leader with little legitimacy (27:59).

"Our people have had enough... if we want to get rid of this regime, we have to sacrifice more. For me, it's very painful to say this, but I think our people have to sacrifice a little bit more."
—Gordayin (28:11)

• There is skepticism and mistrust toward American support given the abandonment of Kurds in Syria and shifts in US priorities in prior conflicts (29:18).

7. Cynicism about International Intervention and the Future (29:52–36:52)

Reflections:

• Patterns of betrayal by Western powers—the Kurds have repeatedly been encouraged to fight, only to be abandoned after they've served broader interests (e.g., in Syria and Iraq) (31:21–34:11).
• Broader oppression of Kurds not just by Iran, but by Turkey and Arab countries, compounded by Western and Russian interventions (34:12–35:28).
• The future, in Gordayin’s view, will be shaped primarily by the interests of outside powers—America, Europe, and regional actors—regardless of the Iranian or Kurdish people's aspirations (36:09–36:52).

"What's going to be next? I think the next is going to be what America and Europe want... So the people are trapped between these decisions."
—Gordayin (36:09)

8. Recommendations for Reliable Information (36:52–39:19)

Where to Follow Developments:

• Hangao Organization for Human Rights (for Kurdish and regional updates)
• Rudaw (Kurdish TV based in Iraqi Kurdistan)
• Official social media channels of KDPI, Komala, and other Kurdish parties
• Independent journalist Vahid Online
• Journalist Ali Jawan (Voice of America)
• Caution advised regarding monarchist-leaning outlets (Iran International, Manoto TV, BBC Persian) due to misinformation and propaganda (37:09–39:19)

"These media have turned into a platform to do the propaganda for the monarchists and they have been posting a lot of fake news, a lot of AI generated content and it's been really damaging..."
—Gordayin (38:40)

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• "What's going on right now is a full scare war. And I think when you look at it, it's nothing like what we've seen before..." — Gordayin (04:03)
• "The regime has put all these bases inside the cities, near parks, near hospitals... So a lot of people are possibly killed, but we don't know how many. Who are they?" — Gordayin (07:33)
• "All those young men who are forced to be in the military bases... They are absolutely not a part of the regime. They are just civilians who are forced into this." — Gordayin (12:18)
• "If they want to install Reza Pahlavi, the ethnic groups will not accept it, and there's going to be more resistance and therefore more wars." — Gordayin (22:53)
• "Our people have had enough... if we want to get rid of this regime, we have to sacrifice more. For me, it's very painful to say this, but I think our people have to sacrifice a little bit more." — Gordayin (28:11)
• "What's going to be next?... the next is going to be what America and Europe want... So the people are trapped between these decisions." — Gordayin (36:09)

Conclusion

This episode provides an invaluable insider perspective on the chaos and devastation resulting from new military intervention in Iran. It highlights the specific challenges facing ordinary Iranians, especially Kurdish communities, and provides a sobering reminder of the geopolitical forces—from the US to neighboring rivals—shaping the region’s future. The guests’ analysis and warnings about relying on state or exile media for accurate news underscore just how fraught, fluid, and complex the situation remains.