It Could Happen Here

Episode: What’s Real in the Politics of Population with Andrew
Date: October 29, 2025
Hosts: Andrew Sage & Mia Wong

Overview

This episode delves into the complex, emotionally charged politics of global population: past panics about overpopulation, the myths, policy responses, and conspiracy theories that have flourished, as well as the current shift to fears of “underpopulation.” Andrew and Mia break down how both overpopulation and depopulation anxieties have shaped societies—sometimes in compassionate, often in coercive or cruel ways. They connect demographic fears to wider themes of capitalism, environmental collapse, far-right conspiracy, and migration, while previewing a deeper dive into pro-natalist vs. anti-natalist ideologies in the next episode.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Historical Perspective on Population Growth

• Ancient Humanity: Population growth was sluggish for millennia due to high infant mortality, famine, and disease.
  • “You had famines, you had plagues, you had the occasional war, and especially a lot of infant mortality. That’s what really kept populations in check.” (Andrew, 05:19)
• Dramatic Growth Since Industrialization: Advances in sanitation, vaccines, and agriculture led to the exponential “J curve”—from 1 billion in 1804 to 8 billion in 2022.
  • “We eventually hit 1 billion in the year 1804... Things really began to accelerate from there.” (Andrew, 06:41)
• UN Projections: Population is expected to peak at about 10.3 billion by 2084 before declining slightly.

Memorable Quote

“From 1804 to 2022, we went from 1 billion people to 8 billion people.”
(Andrew, 12:31)

2. The Persistent Panic About 'Overpopulation'

• Early Theories:
  • Thomas Malthus (late 1700s) predicted population would outstrip food supply—famously wrong, but influential in cruel Victorian policies such as workhouses.
  • Famines are often due to distribution, not scarcity (Amartya Sen’s work).
    • “Famines usually happen despite food surpluses. The issue is usually distribution and not scarcity.” (Andrew, 11:43)
• 1960s-70s Peak Panic:
  • Paul Ehrlich’s “The Population Bomb” (1968) sparked widespread fears. Policies ranged from family planning to forced sterilizations and China's one-child policy.
    • “You had sterilization campaigns, forced sterilization campaigns... It's a scary prospect, especially if you were a minority in this time.” (Andrew, 13:44)

Important Segment

• Timeline of population milestones through world events (06:41–13:44)

3. Debunking Overpopulation Myths & Conspiracies

• Pop Conspiracies:
  • Overpopulation fears fuel both mainstream and fringe beliefs—population control conspiracies, "chemtrails", “Bill Gates microchips,” and vaccine hysteria.
    • “Any combination of conspiracies can somehow be smushed together to fit that kind of narrative... that's the sad thing about conspiracy theories: some kernels of truth mixed in with a bunch of garbage.” (Andrew, 19:23)
• Consequences:
  • Some spill into violence (e.g., Nashville 5G bombing), policy (anti-vaxxers in government), and right-wing "Great Replacement" racism.
  • “If you have people rejecting vaccines, you know, it's almost like we're in the world that I alluded to earlier, where we have a resurgence in measles.” (Andrew, 21:14)
  • “Then there's the typical far right Nazi conspiracies about great replacement… You have the ecofash with their worries about the environmental impact of population, which usually ends up targeting marginalized groups.” (Andrew, 23:39)

Notable Moment

“Blaming population is a very cheap, simplistic and cowardly get out of jail free card for the rich minority that drive this systemic crisis.”
(Andrew, 25:11)

4. The New Panic: 'Underpopulation'

• Current Reality:
  • Birth rates have plummeted globally, especially in East Asia and Europe. E.g., South Korea’s rate is 0.7 children per woman, the lowest in the world.
  • “The global average had dropped to just 2.3 children per woman, which is less than half of what it was 60 years ago... by 2100, expected to dip below the replacement level.” (Andrew, 29:30)
• Economic, Cultural Causes:
  • In developed countries: greater education, economic instability, urbanization, changing social attitudes, and child-raising costs.
  • “Very few people I know actually want children, or if they do want children, they don’t think they’d be able to afford to have children.” (Andrew, 32:29)
  • “There's the existential angst of it all... climate change which makes it honestly feel irresponsible to even think about bringing a child into this mess.” (Andrew, 33:28)
• Governments' Reactions:
  • From bonuses to parental leave (often ineffective), to raising retirement age (sparks protests), or punitive controls like limiting abortions.
    • “Instead of making life better for potential parents, some governments are criminalizing... restricting abortion, limiting reproductive rights, demonizing childfree lifestyles.” (Andrew, 37:27)

Memorable Quote

“For centuries we feared having too many people, and now we're starting to fear having too few.”
(Andrew, 39:52)

Timestamps of Key Segment

• Fertility decline and government responses: 29:30–37:42

5. Migration & Global Inequity

• Filling the Gap with Immigration:
  • Wealthy countries rely on immigration to compensate for declining native populations but create political flashpoints and scapegoating.
    • “I’m in support of people moving and living wherever they want to... but I’m not a fan of the way that some progressives talk about immigration, as if the Global South is like a population bank that wealthy countries could tap into.” (Andrew, 37:42)
• Root Causes:
  • Need to address destabilizing impact of rich countries’ policies on migration, not merely treat migrants as “replacement” labor.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Vaccines & Conspiracies:
  • “If I was conspiracy brained, I would say that actually the popularization of vaccine conspiracies on social media sites contribute to exactly that kind of population control that those same conspiracy theorists fear monger about.” (Andrew, 22:31)
• On Ecofascism:
  • “If you actually wanted to reduce consumption, reduce the impact of population on the planet… are you going to start with fewer people or are you going to start with fewer billionaires flying private jets?” (Andrew, 24:15)
• Pronatalism’s Darker Side:
  • “Some governments... are criminalizing, they're turning to anti-choice policies. They're restricting abortion, they're limiting reproductive rights, they're demonizing child free lifestyles...” (Andrew, 37:27)

Episode Conclusion & What’s Next

• The episode ends by underscoring that policy, culture, and fear around population—whether about over- or under-population—have huge impact on individual lives and society. The hosts foreshadow a follow-up episode exploring the ideologies and politics of pronatalism and antinatalism.
  • “Whether the future holds overcrowded cities or ghost towns really depends on the direction our politics, economy, culture and urban design takes.” (Andrew, 39:47)

Further Listening

• Next episode: Deep dive into pro-natalist and antinatalist movements and ideas.

Hosts:

• Andrew Sage (Andrewism), guest host, educator, and YouTuber
• Mia Wong, regular host

Production: Cool Zone Media & iHeartPodcasts