Podcast Summary

Podcast: It's a Good Life
Host: Brian Buffini
Episode: S2E354 — Brian Buffini's Bold Predictions: Hope and a Plan for 2026
Date: December 9, 2025
Theme:
In this high-energy, optimistic episode, Brian Buffini delivers his live “State of the Market” keynote to over 35,000 real estate professionals, outlining his bold predictions for the 2026 real estate landscape. Drawing on 40 years of experience, extensive data, and his signature wit, Buffini debunks mainstream negativity, stresses the return to cyclical norms, and unveils new systems and tools for agents and brokers. The central message is clear: “Hope and a plan”—offering listeners not only confidence for the coming year but concrete, actionable steps to achieve growth, resilience, and balance.

Table of Contents

• Key Themes
• The State of the Market
• Shifts in Buyer & Seller Demographics
• State of the Industry: Challenges and Opportunities
• Return of the Selling Seasons: The 2019 Rhythm
• Hope and a Plan for 2026: The Blitz & Duplicare Systems
• Final Inspiration and Member Highlights

Key Themes

• The 2026 real estate market will mirror the cyclical, sustainable pattern of 2019—not the artificial chaos of 2021-2022.
• The industry must shed false expectations set during “lottery” years, pivot back to the fundamentals, and focus on providing value and building relationships.
• Hope is not wishful thinking, but a “confident expectation” paired with a practical plan.
• Massive reduction in competition as 240,000 agents leave the business, while sales rise 14%—a golden opportunity for committed professionals.
• Systems and coaching such as the new Blitz and Duplicare programs are essential for thriving in the coming market.

The State of the Market [00:22–11:30]

• Message: The U.S. market is normalizing; media rhetoric about a “crash” is overblown.
• Insight:
  • 2021 was “an artificial market”—never to be repeated.
  • 2025/26 returns to “the rhythm of 2019.”
  • Agents and brokers must stop expecting to “win the lotto again”:

    “Imagine winning the lottery, and then the next three years you expect to win the lottery every year? That’s the real estate business in 2025.” —Brian [03:41]

• Market Fundamentals:
  • Listing inventory normalized: 1.36 million (close to 2019), not the extreme lows of 2021.
  • Artificial conditions—pandemic, stimulus, and sub-3% mortgage rates—are gone and not coming back.
  • “Don’t build your budget, lifestyle, or expectations on an artificial market.” [04:46]
• Mental Health Focus:
  • Major concern is agent apathy and burnout due to misaligned expectations.

    “The number one concern I have for the real estate industry is its mental health.” [06:36]

  • Industry must move away from apathy and back to hope—“a confident expectation.”
• Data Points:
  • Days on market has stabilized: 34 days in 2025, just like 2019 (was hyper-low in artificial years).
  • Median prices rose and flattened; market feels different, but data shows stability.

Shifts in Buyer & Seller Demographics [13:10–22:50]

• Sellers:

  • Median age: 64
  • Average tenure in a home: 11 years (previously 5–7)
  • Many sellers are downsizing or moving closer to family—22% cite proximity to family as motivation.

    “Older people are liquidating their homes to be closer to their kids and especially their grandkids.” [15:37]

• First-Time Buyers:

  • Median age now 40 (was 28 when Brian started).
  • First-time buyers make up just 21% (used to be 31–33%).
  • Affordability and delayed household formation are societal headwinds, but not agents’ responsibility to solve.

    “Your job is to feed your family, serve your clients and do an awesome job.” [18:41]

  • Married couples (50%), single women (25%), single men (10%) make up the buyer cohort.
  • Young men face motivation and financial challenges, sometimes resorting to online gambling and crypto to fund down payments.

• Marketing Implications:

  • “90% of the training of realtors right now is about being an influencer... These people think TikTok is a disease you get from walking in the woods.” [13:27]
  • Focus needs to shift to channels and messages that actually reach the active buyer/seller demographic.

• Repeat Buyers:

  • Median age: 62
  • 79% of home buyers fall into this repeat category.
  • 30% of deals are cash, much of it from downsizing equity.

State of the Industry: Challenges and Opportunities [22:50–30:50]

• Mergers & Acquisitions:
  • “Wild Kingdom”—large-scale consolidation and turmoil, especially post-lawsuit and as companies run short of cash.
• Membership Attrition:
  • NAR preparing to lose 240,000 members in ’26—a 20% drop.

    “The Uncle Jimmy’s are out the door. Aunt Mary’s out the door. 240,000 less people.” [27:15]

• Silver Lining:
  • Fewer agents with 14% more sales = much more opportunity for the professionals remaining.

    “20% less competition, 14% more sales. That’s the reward for the pros that stick it out.” [29:22]

  • “Do I have any capitalists in the room? ...This is more beer for us.” [29:13]
• Canada Trends:
  • Home prices expected to drop 3.7% while transactions go up 3.4%; 10% of all Canadians intend to purchase in 12 months.

Return of the Selling Seasons: The 2019 Rhythm [35:15–42:00]

• Historical Context:
  • Predicts a return to the traditional, seasonal pattern of real estate established since 1952:
    • Spring listing burst (40%), smaller summer pop, end-year bump.

    “We’re going to get back to a spring selling season. What we have not had since 2021.” [25:47]

  • Agents must plan and act according to this pattern: concentrated lead generation during selling seasons.

    “It’s like hunting season—this is when the fish are biting.” [38:26]

• Action Step:
  • Plan marketing, lead generation, and outreach aligned with when households are actually making moves.
• Industry Focus:
  • Criticizes focus on “influencers,” downlines, and attacking NAR rather than transaction fundamentals.

    “The industry is completely focused on the wrong things. … I’m interested in helping people have more transactions, a good quality of life, and have a better story.” [46:04]

Hope and a Plan for 2026: The Blitz & Duplicare Systems [38:20–46:50]

• Hope Redefined:

  “Hope is not a wish. Hope is a confident expectation.” [06:13, 30:54]

• The Solution:

  • Work by referral, get back to the fundamentals: relationship-building, systemized follow-up, consistent service.
  • Launching an all-new, upgraded Buffini & Company Blitz system for 2026.
    • Three-phase annual structure:
      1. Organization & Planning
      2. Blitz Lead Generation (spring, summer, end-year)
      3. Transaction/Referrals (Duplicare System: extract referrals during and post-transaction)
    • Goal: Every buyer produces two referrals (pre-close), every seller produces one (post-close).

      “Every buyer, two referrals prior to close. Every seller, one referral post-closing… Would that help your business, yes or no?” [43:41]

• Blitz System Results:

  • Historic average: +1 transaction/month (now targeting 70% more).
  • Emphasizes systematic care and relationship-building rather than peaks and valleys of lead gen and transaction cycles.

• Membership and Access:

  • Brand-new membership tier “Core” for $99/month (includes blitzes, CRM, digital assets).
  • All current coaching members get the 2026 Blitz for free.

    “We want you to prosper, do more business, and as you do well this year, send us a referral. Is that fair?” [52:51]

Final Inspiration and Member Highlights [55:53–End]

• Bold Predictions Recap:
  1. The market will mirror 2019.
  2. 240,000 agents will leave; sales will rise 14%.
  3. Blitz users will average an extra transaction a month.
• Memorable Story: Kimberly Stevenson (Cary, NC)
  • Set a goal for $8.4 million by accident, input $11.4M, and following the activity plan precisely is about to hit $12M.

    “She didn’t know what she was capable of. Just like you don’t.” [56:57]

• Call to Action:

  “You’re capable of a hell of a lot more. The apathy—it’s over. Covid is done. 2019 is back into 2026. No more artificial markets. Now it’s a market that rewards people who are actual pros, who do what pros do every single day… focus on your customers. Blow them away. Exceed expectations. Provide them value. And then: Oh, by the way, do you know anybody who’d like this?” [57:02–END]

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “The real estate market will return to the rhythm of 2019. I’m putting my money where my mouth is.” —Brian Buffini [00:44]

• “If you think it’s coming back, you think your 20s are coming back. You have a false expectation. And by the way, it’ll ruin your health, your financial health, your mental health.” [06:24]

• “Hope is not a wish. Hope is a confident expectation.” [06:36, 30:54]

• “90% of the training of realtors right now is about being an influencer. These people think TikTok is a disease you get from walking in the woods.” [13:27]

• “20% less competition, 14% more sales. That’s the reward for the pros that stick it out.” [29:22]

• “We’re going to get back to a spring selling season. What we have not had since 2021.” [25:47]

• “The industry is completely focused on the wrong things. … I’m interested in helping people have more transactions, a good quality of life, and have a better story.” [46:04]

• “Every buyer, two referrals prior to close. Every seller, one referral post closing. … Would that help your business, yes or no?” [43:41]

• “She didn’t know what she was capable of. Just like you don’t.” [56:57]

Summary Takeaways

• Prepare for a return to sustainable market rhythms; set expectations accordingly.
• Stop chasing old, artificial highs; focus on systems, relationships, and disciplines that work in any market.
• Leverage the next wave: agents who stick with it will face less competition, more opportunity.
• Invest in training, coaching, and programs that generate referrals and value.
• “Hope and a plan” isn’t just motivational—it's a proven, practical approach for the coming year.

This summary captures all vital discussion points, actionable insights, and Buffini’s signature voice and humor, offering clear value for listeners seeking to thrive in the 2026 real estate market—even if they missed the episode.