Could Operation in Venezuela Impact Gas Prices?

Summary

Podcast Summary:

Jill on Money with Jill Schlesinger
Episode: Could Operation in Venezuela Impact Gas Prices?
Date: January 6, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Jill Schlesinger and executive producer Mark Tularcio discuss the recent surprising US military operation resulting in the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and what potential impacts this could have on gas prices, the oil market, and the broader US and global economy in 2026. The episode blends real-time reactions, a CBS Mornings segment featuring Jill, and a broad, insightful discussion of recent financial trends and practical investment advice for listeners as the new year begins.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Personal Catch-Up and Setting the Stage

• Jill and Mark recount post-holiday illness and New Year wishes, creating a relatable, conversational tone.
• The mood shifts quickly as they underscore the serious and unexpected news: the US has captured Venezuelan President Maduro, which has triggered wide discussions on oil, markets, and potential economic ramifications.
  • Jill: “I certainly did not expect that the United States military would capture Venezuelan President Maduro. Did you?” (03:45)
  • Mark describes hearing helicopters transporting Maduro near his Brooklyn neighborhood. (03:56)

2. CBS Mornings Segment: Venezuelan Oil and Gas Price Impacts

• Key Data: Venezuela holds 303 billion barrels of oil, but three-quarters are difficult/expensive to extract. (05:33)
  • Jill: “About three-quarters of that is very hard to extract from the ground and actually refine. So when we say it is big, it is big.”
• Production Decline: Venezuela used to produce 3 million barrels/day (25 years ago); now it’s down to 1 million barrels/day. (05:47)
• US Involvement: Only Chevron is currently in Venezuela, requiring profit-sharing with the Venezuelan government.
  • Other companies would need to invest billions in infrastructure for any serious production increase. (06:26)
• Short-term impact on gas prices:
  • Jill (07:01): “In the short term, there will be absolutely no impact at the gas pumps. Absolutely none.”
  • Positive news: Oil was down 20% in 2025, and gas prices are already (as of this episode) 25 cents lower per gallon compared to a year ago. (07:10)
• Long-term potential: Effects on supply (and thereby price) depend on many uncertainties, requiring years of investment and stable geopolitics.
  • Jill (07:44): “There are so many factors at play. It’s not as easy as we extract this person and all of a sudden our prices at the pumps go down.”

3. Market Recap: The 2025 Surge Across Asset Classes

• Price Trends: Many listeners unaware that oil/gas prices have dropped—everyone talks about rising costs but not falling ones. (08:36)
• Stock Market:
  • S&P 500:
    • Down 19% in spring 2025 due to tariffs, but finished the year up 16.5%; third consecutive year of double-digit gains.
    • 2023: +24%, 2024: +23%, 2025: +16.5% (09:15–10:10)
    • Jill: “That is incredible, isn’t it?”
    • Mark (joking): “It’s never going down. Never again.” (10:10)
  • International Stocks:
    • Fund tracking non-US stocks returned ~33% to US investors in 2025. (10:15)
• Bonds & Precious Metals: Both saw positive returns.
• Bitcoin: Down 7%.
• Crude Oil: Off 22% for 2025. (10:44)
• Mortgage Rates: 30-year fixed ended 2025 at 6.15%, lowest for the year but still psychologically high for many buyers. (11:25)
  • Mark: “I think once it gets into the fives, you’ll start seeing a lot of movement.” (11:48)

4. Investment and Economic Philosophy for 2026

• Unpredictability: Neither Jill nor Mark claim to know what will happen in 2026.
  • Jill: “Nobody knows. That to me is the most important thing to remember. Very few people can guess. And you know what the good news is? You, you don’t have to.” (12:19)
• Actionable Advice:
  • Know your financial goals and current situation.
  • Develop, follow, and periodically rebalance a diversified plan.
  • Tune out the financial news “noise.”
  • Passive investing and planning beats attempting to time the market.
    • Jill: “You know what people who know advocate? They advocate passive investing, they advocate conducting financial plans and they do what the great David Booth of Dimensional always advocates. They tune out the noise.” (13:55)
• Listeners encouraged to reach out and share their financial questions.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Venezuela & Oil Supply:
  • “When we say it is big, it is big. Over the long term, if there is an investment. What we’ve seen in Venezuela is over the last 50 years, this is a country that has seen its oil production slide.” (Jill on CBS, 05:33)
• No Short-term Impact:
  • “In the short term, there will be absolutely no impact at the gas pumps. Absolutely none.” (Jill on CBS, 07:01)
• Surprising Stock Market Comeback:
  • “We finished the year...about a 16.5% increase in the S&P 500. Now what makes that even more remarkable is that is the third year in a row of double digit gains.” (Jill, 09:15)
• Advice for Listeners:
  • “All you have to be is somebody who conducts a financial plan, you know where you stand, you know what goal you’re trying to achieve...and you just let it go.” (Jill, 12:19)
  • “Tune out the noise.” (Jill, 13:55)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:45] — Jill and Mark discuss the surprise news of Maduro’s capture and New York’s atmosphere.
• [05:11 - 07:49] — CBS Mornings segment: detailed analysis on Venezuelan oil’s potential impact on U.S. gas prices, short- vs. long-term effects, and required investments.
• [09:15 - 10:44] — Year-end review of stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, oil, and international investments.
• [11:25 - 11:54] — Mortgage rate updates and implications for homebuyers.
• [12:19 - 13:55] — Advice on market unpredictability, passive planning, and ignoring daily market noise.

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Tone & Style

• The tone is affable, dryly humorous, and reassuring—Jill and Mark share personal anecdotes and “real talk” advice.
• Financial jargon is minimal, with concepts explained simply and matter-of-factly.
• The episode is punctuated by playful exchanges and memorable, no-nonsense financial wisdom.

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Key Takeaways for Listeners

• Venezuela’s oil extraction challenges mean no quick relief at the pump is coming from recent events—even dramatic geopolitical ones.
• Despite wild swings, 2025 ended up as a banner year for most asset classes.
• The best investment approach is to plan, diversify, and stay the course rather than reacting to news headlines.
• The show invites listener engagement—questions and interaction are encouraged without intimidation.

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This summary covers all major content segments and central messages, skipping over commercials and administrative content.

Transcript

[Commercial Narrator]

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[Jill Schlesinger]

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[Jill Schlesinger]

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[Mark Tularcio]

Happy New Year, Jill. As we roll into year number 16.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Unbelievable. Okay, just let me catch you up on what's been going on. When we last spoke to you, Mark and I were very excited to see one another because we were gonna have a little holiday breakfast, which we had on Friday, December 19. Now, what happened right after that is both Marc and I are like, oh, I don't feel well. We spoke, I think we got together, Mark, on that Monday the 22nd, and I said to you, man, I feel like crap. And you said, what?

[Mark Tularcio]

I'm not feeling so hot either.

[Jill Schlesinger]

What did I say? Yes. You're like, I don't really feel well either. And so you attributed this to us schlepping around New York City in the pouring rain that day. Right.

[Mark Tularcio]

It was a monsoon. My feet were soaking wet, my pants were soaking wet. Yeah.

[Jill Schlesinger]

And you went back and forth to between Brooklyn and Manhattan a couple times. And you went to the doctor. Did what happened when you went to the doctor appointment?

[Mark Tularcio]

That was all good. All good. All clear.

[Jill Schlesinger]

All right, so there's that? Okay. Then both of us persistent, had like illness throughout the holidays. We exchanged little like, hi, how are you? I entertain 10 people on Christmas Day. Not feeling great. I didn't feel good. And now as I record this today, we're talking on Monday, January 5th. So we are recording this. And Mark, how do you feel?

[Mark Tularcio]

Definitely better. But also definitely not 100%.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Exactly. Me, too, which is insanity. So I said to Mark, I think we both had the flu or we both had a really bad cold, but there's a lot going on in New York City. We evidently are ground zero of like everyone being sick. So all that being said, I'd like to just say, everyone, I hope you're healthy and well. Happy New Year. And the other little extra cherry on top is that when Mark and I were, you know, we were talking about, like, getting back into the swing of things. I certainly did not expect that the United States military would capture Venezuelan President Maduro. Did you?

[Mark Tularcio]

No, that was quite the surprise. But I did hear all the birds overhead this morning in Brooklyn. Cause that's where he was being held. And they flew him this morning from Brooklyn into Manhattan. So the helicopter flew basically right over our neighborhood. And I heard all the media helicopters in hot pursuit.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Okay, so listen, gang, there's a lot of news. There's a lot of talk about, you know, oil reserves and what's going to happen to the market. So here's what happened. I got I was chopping onions, Mark, as I was preparing to make turkey chili on Sunday. And I got a call, you got to be on the show tomorrow. So this morning, as we again, we're recording today, Monday, January 5th, I went on CBS MORNINGS to discuss what is likely to happen with all of this discussion around Venezuelan oil. So, Mark, let's do this. Let's just play that segment. And then on the other side of it, I want to talk a little bit about what is expected now in 2026, not just in the oil market, but the economy as well as what's going on in the markets. So let us air the segment. Your anchors are Nate Burleson, Gayle King and Adrianna Diaz.

[CBS Anchor]

How will this US Military strike affect our wallets here at home? That is the question many Americans are asking. CBS News business analyst Jill Schlesinger is with us. Jill, really good to have you here at the table. And a lot of people feel this is all about the oil. You can say whatever you want to say and parse it, whatever you want to do. But at the bottom line, for many they believe this is all about the oil.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Then what does that mean, Gail, what does that mean?

[CBS Business Analyst]

I think it's interesting you just said that. 303 billion barrels of oil, a big producer, a big reserve in Venezuela, but about three quarters of that is very hard to extract from the ground and actually refine. So when we say it is big, it is big. Over the long term, if there is an investment. What we've seen in Venezuela is over the last 50 years, this is a country that has seen its oil production slide. Let's look at 25 years ago, they used to produce 3 million barrels a day. 25 years ago, now it's a million barrels a day. So this is a country that has reserves, they're expensive to get out of the ground and it's a long haul to make that into a money making venture for U.S. companies.

[Draymond Green]

Okay, so if you're saying expensive, who pays?

[CBS Business Analyst]

Well, this would be the US Companies that are hopefully going to go into.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Hopefully, hopefully.

[CBS Business Analyst]

Now there's only one US Company right now that is in Venezuela, that is Chevron. And Chevron splits its profits with the Venezuelan government. Let's say we want to get other companies involved. That would require billions of dollars of infrastructure investment. And here's the big question, will these companies want to do that? If this is a much longer term play, it's not going to be an immediate turnaround. And that's what we don't know.

[CBS Anchor]

So how long do you think it could take for US companies to have an impact on bringing Venezuela and oil to their service? And then what impact could that have on American gas prices? Filling up their gas?

[CBS Business Analyst]

Yeah, I mean, this is what I want to start with, that part of it. In the short term, there will be absolutely no impact at the gas pumps. Absolutely none. Now the good news is last year oil prices were down by more than 20% in one year. And gas prices are now 25 cents a gallon cheaper than they were a year ago. So already gas prices have come down. All these other companies are going to have to make multi year investments and that may not pay off. And remember, the global oil and gas market is determined by supply and demand and what's happening in the economy. So what we really need to understand is the short term, probably no difference in our pocketbooks. Longer term, maybe, maybe there will be more gas on the market. But there are so many factors at play. It's not as easy as we extract this person and all of a sudden our prices at the pumps go down.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Okay, so Mark, I think that there's just like a lot of chit chat about oil and everything that's gonna happen. As I said in this segment, this is a long term project. In the short run, I really don't expect there to be big, huge changes. But what was kind of fascinating is that, you know, I said at the end of the segment, like, hey, crude oil prices were down 22% last year and gas prices are down by 25 cents a gallon. And a lot of people got in touch with me after and they're like, I didn't even realize that. We've been talking so much about the economy and about affordability and usually when oil prices come down, there's no like real chatter about it. It's only when they go up. Have you noticed a difference when you fill up your car?

[Mark Tularcio]

No. And here's the reason. I fill up my car about once every six months. Honest to God.

[Jill Schlesinger]

So, you know, listen, I just, I think that it's actually worth starting this year off on the reminder to most people that we complain a lot about prices, we complain about a lot of things. I'm going to talk about good things that have happened. Okay. And I want to talk about 2025. Not only did we see the price of oil come down and the price of gas come down, but Mark, it was an incredible year for US Stocks and international stocks. So can I give you some numbers?

[Mark Tularcio]

Please do.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Okay. The s and P500, which, remember we started 2025 and the S and P was going up. Then we had this massive tariff announcement. Remember that Rose Garden announcement? The beginning of April, and stocks cratered. The s and P500 was down about 19% over the course of a few weeks. We bottomed out on April 8th. Okay. We finished the year for the entire year of 2025, 16%. About a 16.5% increase in the S&P 500. Now what makes that even more remarkable is that that is the third year in a row of double digit gains. So Mark, you probably didn't remember this, but in 2023, the S&P was up over 24%. In 24 it was up over 23%. And now we have a 16.5% move. That is incredible, isn't it?

[Mark Tularcio]

It's never going down. Never again.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Well, just remember 2022 stunk. So, okay, so the S and P, the NASDAQ had big years. You know what else had a big year? You know how we always talk with people and we're like, maybe you should have some international stocks and you, you know, Some people are just like, I don't really want to. International stocks were incredible. There's a fund that tracks all the stocks outside of the United states. Returned about 33% to the US investor. So stocks up in the US stocks up internationally. Part of this is about AI spending, but part of it is about people are spending more money, especially people who are in the top 20% of earners and companies are making money. That is why stocks are going up. You know what else was up, Mark? Bond prices, precious metals. Incredible. So as far as I can see, the two areas where there was like a real like, wow, that was a little bit unpleasant. Bitcoin was down 7% on the year. I could be kind of happy about that. I think it's good to just kind of chill out. And crude oil, as I said, off 22%. Unbelievable. Mark, did you happen to notice what happened to the 30 year fixed rate mortgage at the end of the year?

[Mark Tularcio]

I mean, I know it's down, it's getting closer and closer to, I want to say around 6.

[Jill Schlesinger]

You are so right. The 30 year fixed rate mortgage, lowest level for 2025, occurred right before the end of the year. 6.15%.

[Mark Tularcio]

Still high for a lot of people. What do you have to see psychologically?

[Jill Schlesinger]

Okay, but what do you think we have to see? 5. We have to see a 5.

[Mark Tularcio]

Yeah, I think once it gets into the fives, you'll start seeing a lot of movement. But six people are still reluctant.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Yeah, I guess. Okay, so how are you feeling about 26? Do you think that the economy is going to grow? Are you feeling upbeat about it, Mark?

[Mark Tularcio]

I mean, I have no reason not to, but who the heck knows what's going to happen? I mean, like you, like you just touched on last year. It was nuts. We were down 19%. We got all the way back to just getting even and end of the year, up 16%. So, I mean, it was a great year. Who knows what's going to happen this year?

[Jill Schlesinger]

I would be very clear that nobody knows. I mean, that to me is the most important thing to remember. Very few people can guess. And you know what the good news is? You, you don't have to. From my perspective, that gives me so much solace because if you don't have to really worry about this, then you're in the catbird seat. All you have to be is somebody who conducts a financial plan, you know where you stand, you know what goal you're trying to achieve. And then of course you work backwards and you say, oh, what I also know is that all I need to do is diversify my portfolio, make sure that my risk assessment and my risk tolerance is up to date, that I have rebalanced my money. And you just let it go. You just let it do what it's going to do. I think at the end of 2022, when both the stock market and the bond market was down, it was a terrible year. I know you've sort of like wiped it away. There were few people who would actually be able to predict that the next three years would see double digit gain gains. So I would be very clear as I watch whatever financial news you might turn on. You know, sometimes my aunt's like, oh, I watch CNBC all the time. I'm like, why? Why do you watch that? Nobody knows anything that is on these networks. They are going out there and they're just sort of guessing. They don't know. You know what people who know advocate, they advocate passive investing, they advocate conducting financial plans and they do what the great David Booth of Dimensional always advocates. They tune out the noise. I would very much encourage you all as you begin the year to tune out the noise. This is a show that is based on our conversations with you. And one of the reasons that is what we do is, is that we don't know where the markets are going. You don't know where the markets are going. But what we do know is that each of you has a unique financial situation and we'd love to hear from you this year. We really would. So even if you've been like in the back of your mind, oh, I'd love to, maybe, I don't know, just go to jillonmoney.com, click the contact us button, write us a note if you want to come on the air, check the box. And while you're on the website, I've got this great idea for you. You can sign up for the free weekly newsletter, but you've heard us talk about our service Jill on Money Live. Well, guess what? You can now just choose one webinar at a time and pay us 15 bucks and you ready for this gang Ed slot is confirmed for Thursday, February 26th. So if you just want to pay 15 bucks for that webinar only and not be on the hook for 45 bucks for the whole year, go ahead. Mark says you can do it. Mark, explain to the folks how they're going to do that.

[Mark Tularcio]

It is. It is now available for purchase. If you go to the website jill on money.com and you hover over the Purchase tab at the top. You will see a couple of options. One says Jill on Money Webinars. That's for the annual subscription. And another says Jill on Money individual webinars. You click the individual webinar. If you just want Ed Slot, click that. It'll take you to Ed Slot. You can pre order now and once we conduct the interview, it'll be posted there shortly thereafter and you can log back in and watch it, listen to it, do whatever you want.

[Jill Schlesinger]

But you can't join it live. Is that the deal?

[Mark Tularcio]

That's correct. They cannot join it live. It'll be available once the webinar concludes. It'll be available probably, you know, within an hour or so.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Okay, so you just, you don't want to make a big commitment. You're like, jill, I don't want to do a whole thing. I don't want to do a whole year. Big deal. No sweat. You just want to do Ed Slot. You want to get your tax planning done. You want to hear about converting retirement accounts. You want to hear about the father of the raw.

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[Draymond Green]

What's up? It's Draymond Green. I'm back for my 14th NBA season and my podcast, the Draymond Green show is back too. This season I'm breaking down games, reacting to the biggest NBA stories and sitting down with 10 teammates, rivals and culture shapers. And trust me, I'm not holding back on the court or on the mic. Two new episodes every week. New segments, big conversations, real basketball talk for the real hoop heads. Listen to and follow the Draymond Green show wherever you get your podcast. We're back. We're better. Let's get it.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Conversion. The one who made me and Mark true believers. Ed Slott. You want in on that? 15 bucks. That's all it's going to cost you. Go to Jill on money.com and look at the Jill on Money Live part of the website and you will be able to check it out. Isn't that fun? Mark, you're so brilliant. Okay, you can subscribe to us on the Odyssey app or wherever you find your favorite podcast. Don't forget to do something nice for someone else today. Change your work, Change your wealth. Change your life. Thank you for listening, and we will talk to you tomorrow.