Here to Hold Your Hands

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Here to Hold Your Hands" on Jill on Money with Jill Schlesinger

Episode Details:

• Title: Here to Hold Your Hands
• Host: Jill Schlesinger, CFP®
• Release Date: April 7, 2025
• Platform: Audacy
• Description: In this episode, Jill Schlesinger and her co-host Mark delve into the recent market turmoil, offering insights, personal anecdotes, and actionable financial advice to help listeners navigate these turbulent times.

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1. Introduction and Personal Updates

Timestamp: 01:21

The episode kicks off with Jill welcoming listeners and acknowledging the rough patch in the markets. She shares a personal note about her recent illness, adding a relatable and human touch to the discussion.

Jill Schlesinger: "My voice has improved a little bit. The markets are just getting hammered and you need some hand holding." (01:21)

Timestamp: 01:47

Jill humorously recounts her struggle with sickness, touching on missed recordings and the challenges of maintaining professionalism during tough times.

Jill Schlesinger: "I was so sick that I couldn't even freak out because I was like flying on the couch..." (02:13)

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2. Market Overview

Timestamp: 02:11

Jill and Mark compare the current market downturn to past financial crises, notably the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting differences and similarities.

Jill Schlesinger: "This is major. These tariffs are the highest tariff levels in more than a century." (02:20)

Timestamp: 03:00

They discuss the uncertainty surrounding the duration and impact of the tariffs, emphasizing the precariousness of the current economic situation.

Jill Schlesinger: "The unknown is really scary. But the financial system is sound." (03:45)

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3. Listener Concerns: Focus on Retirement

Timestamp: 04:17

Mark introduces the influx of listener emails, particularly from retirees or those nearing retirement, expressing anxiety over market fluctuations.

Jill Schlesinger: "If you're already retired, it's harder to take losses." (05:10)

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4. Financial Advice and Strategies

A. Managing Retirement Investments

Timestamp: 05:00

Jill emphasizes the importance of having sufficient non-retirement funds to weather market downturns, advocating for diversification and caution in investment strategies.

Jill Schlesinger: "Have two years worth of cash on the sidelines." (09:18)

B. Opportunistic Moves: Refinancing Example

Timestamp: 07:00

Mark shares a personal anecdote about refinancing their mortgage amidst the market turbulence, illustrating how volatility can present opportunities.

Mark: "We bought at 6.25 and now have a 5.5 rate." (07:00)

Timestamp: 08:17

They discuss the considerations and cost-benefit analysis of refinancing, highlighting the strategic decisions investors can make during unstable periods.

Mark: "Our break even is so small. We're going to break even in a matter of months." (07:40)

C. Roth Conversions and Tax Strategies

Timestamp: 06:47

Jill introduces Roth conversions as a viable strategy during market dips, explaining how converting at lower levels can benefit long-term financial planning.

Jill Schlesinger: "Roth conversions can be pretty good right about now." (06:47)

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5. Federal Reserve and Economic Policy

Timestamp: 10:00

Jill consults with Mark Spindel, a Federal Reserve expert, regarding recent political pressures on the Fed to lower interest rates amidst the market downturn.

Mark Spindel: "They are going to sit back and monitor this for a little while." (10:55)

Timestamp: 11:04

Jill contrasts political statements with the Fed's actual stance, emphasizing that the Fed is unlikely to intervene unless there are significant economic changes like deflation.

Jill Schlesinger: "I wouldn't be counting on the Fed coming to the rescue." (11:04)

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6. Emotional and Practical Support for Listeners

Timestamp: 12:35

Jill underscores the emotional toll of market volatility, encouraging listeners to seek support and reminding them that feeling anxious is natural.

Jill Schlesinger: "It's an emotional buffer and it's the actual buffer." (09:18)

Timestamp: 13:38

She shares a listener's experience of moving to cash entirely, reinforcing the message that everyone's financial situation is unique and requires personalized strategies.

Jill Schlesinger: "We're down 17.5% from the recent high." (13:38)

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7. Conclusion and Call to Action

Timestamp: 14:24

Jill wraps up the episode by reassuring listeners of their support and encouraging them to reach out for personalized advice.

Jill Schlesinger: "We're here for you, so change your work, change your wealth, change your life." (14:24)

She invites listeners to visit jillonmoney.com for assistance and to engage with the community for further support.

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Key Takeaways:

• Stay Informed and Calm: Understanding the broader economic context can help mitigate panic during market downturns.
• Diversify and Protect: Ensure you have non-retirement funds to provide a safety net and consider strategies like Roth conversions.
• Look for Opportunities: Market volatility can present refinancing opportunities or tax-saving strategies.
• Emotional Resilience: Acknowledge the emotional impact of financial stress and seek support when needed.
• Trust in the System: While current tariffs are uncertain, the underlying financial system remains robust compared to past crises.

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Notable Quotes:

• Jill Schlesinger: "The unknown is really scary. But the financial system is sound." (03:45)
• Mark: "Our break even is so small. We're going to break even in a matter of months." (07:40)
• Jill Schlesinger: "We get that it's very scary." (05:00)
• Mark Spindel: "They are going to sit back and monitor this for a little while." (10:55)

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For More Information: Visit jillonmoney.com and click the "Contact Us" button to reach out with your financial questions or concerns. Let Jill and Mark guide you through these uncertain times with personalized advice and support.

Transcript

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[Jill Schlesinger]

Welcome to the Jill on Money show. It's Monday, April 7th. My voice has improved a little bit. The markets are just getting hammered and you need some hand holding. So Mark and I are going back in the time machine. The wayback machine, Mark, where it is five years ago. And we're doing daily podcasts. Basically that's how we started this, right?

[Mark]

That's right. Except today I can't throw Theo into a little pen, you know, now he's running around.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Oh boy. Now we have to do it. So we are recording on Sunday. Markets are not yet open, but Mark and I decided that we had to do a special broadcast to do just what we said to kind of soothe you a little bit first by saying this was a brutal two days. And also I've been so sick. I have not been this sick in a long time.

[Mark]

You must be really freaking out because I know how nutty you get.

[Jill Schlesinger]

I know. But you know, I was so sick that I couldn't even freak out because I was like flying on the couch and every time I got up my head was like pounding and I was so sick that I was not allowed on the air. And you're going to laugh about this, Mark, but I think I did some recording for radio for the network like on Thursday and Friday and some I saw that they posted, please do not use this audio because that sounded so bad.

[Mark]

That's when you know it's bad because their bar is pretty low.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Oh, yeah, exactly right. So I was so sick. You'll still be here. A little gravelly in my voice, gang. You'll hear it throughout. But hopefully I'm on the other side of this. And boy, what a two day, 10% sell off. Haven't seen that in five years. You know, look, I've been saying this for so long. People keep trying to guess what this tariff will be. Now once you get the news, that is when markets and investors are adjusting, it's ugly. I don't know what happens next, but I was trying to think back and to say to myself, let me go back to like the financial crisis. Does it feel like that? It doesn't feel like that to me. I don't know about you, Mark. It doesn't feel as out of control. Everything is like so precariously hanging by a thread. It doesn't feel like that. It does feel like. This is major. These tariffs are the highest tariff levels in more than a century. We do not really know how this is going to ripple through the economy. We have no idea whether these tariffs stay in place for two days, two months, two years. We have no idea. In that respect, the unknown is really scary. But the financial system is sound. Businesses and consumers, they are in better shape than they were back 16 years ago or 17 years ago when we had the big financial crisis. And so I think that it is important to have a little bit of context, but I get that it's very scary. So how were the inbound emails, Mark? After a couple of days?

[Mark]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, you could sense it just from reading the emails that we received. People are. People are freaking. Especially people who either just retired or are thinking about retirement.

[Jill Schlesinger]

What if that has. Let's just play this out a little bit. Let's go through a few scenarios. Let's say you're about to retire. Can you take it back? Have you already given your notice? I mean, that's a question. And if you haven't done it yet, then maybe you chill out a little bit and you see how things go. If you're already retired, one of the things that you'll hear me and Mark talk about so often is it's harder to take losses when you are no longer working. It really is. I'm sorry. The older you get, the harder it is. I mean, you've got to have a ton of money to be steely against these kinds of movements of the last couple of days. You really do. I mean, right? I mean, you have to be like, oh, I really don't care. I mean, everybody feels it. It's really awful. You know, we saw indexes, you know, down 10% in two days. They're down 15, 20% from the recent highs. But if you are already retired, one of the reasons that Mark and I continue to say, do you have enough money in your non retirement accounts to float you for a year, two years, just have it safe. And often we'll hear from people like, oh, you know, it's not earning enough money or oh, you know, the market's doing so well. This is why we caution against being fully invested and also we caution against making sure that you don't have too much money invested so that you are freaking out when the market tumbles. I mean, my 85 year old mother, who is really mostly in bonds, this called me up, freaked out. I'm like, mom, what are you worried about? You don't own them any stocks. She goes, I don't. I said, no, you don't.

[Mark]

Just go back to what you were doing.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Go play mahjong, go play bridge, relax. And now I can't say that because she gets really mad when I do that and I try not to. Look, I know the news flow is really, really scary, but again, if you are retired, let's say you're 65 years old and you're retired, you said, I gave my notice, you got your money has to last you for 30 years. So hopefully you don't have to actually pull money out. Now are there some opportunities for you? One of the things that I was thinking about, Mark, is that for some people, doing Roth conversions right about now can be pretty good. Right? Basically converting at lower levels.

[Mark]

Yeah, I mean, it's not all bad news. When this stuff happens, there are a lot of opportunities for people to take advantage of, especially if you have, you know, cash sitting on the sidelines or you're thinking about doing a Roth conversion.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Okay, so can we talk about the opportunistic move you made?

[Mark]

Yeah. Anybody listening to this show knows full well that we bought, we bought our, our latest home a couple years ago and we got a pretty high mortgage rate, which, although right now it doesn't seem that high compared to where things have been recently. But we bought at 6.25. And then with, with all these crazy swings last week, I said, you know what, let me just reach out to our guy who we've Worked with now for a number of years. And he quickly responded. He goes, you know, funny, you emailed me, I was going to send you an email today. So we, in a matter of hours we did a refi. It's done.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Okay, but you have to like, it's, there's a cost to refi.

[Mark]

There is, yeah, it was, there's a cost, sure.

[Jill Schlesinger]

What's your break even?

[Mark]

I mean our loan is so big that our break even is so small. Like it's, we're going to break even in a matter of months. But we basically went from 6.25 and we now have a 5.5 rate for the same, for the same terms. We had a 10 year arm and we refied with another 10 year arm. He offered us something lower. It was only slightly lower for a seven year arm and it was only a difference of like 150 bucks a month. I'm like, you know what, just give me those extra three years. Even though, even though I'm sure probably here within the next, you know, year or so we're going to refi again.

[Jill Schlesinger]

But yeah, you think that you. What, at what point would you refi to lock in a 30 year note?

[Mark]

Yeah, that's a good question because he did offer us that as well. But what was that price? Let me see, I have it right here. He offered us a 30 year fixed at 6.125.

[Jill Schlesinger]

I think if it has a five handle, if it were five point something, maybe you would do it because I don't know if we're going much below that. Okay, so you can be opportunistic. Okay, again, we get it, it's scary, but you can be opportunistic. There are things to do, whether it's a refi from a higher level, whether it is tax loss, selling in a brokerage account. I love all the people who are like, well, you know, what should I do with all these big gains?

[Mark]

Not so big anymore.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Maybe it's time to rebalance. Maybe it doesn't cost you that much to do that. And again, the Roth conversion, if you are nearing retirement or need your money to pay for something like college or a down payment, and you need this money for one year, then within the next year get it out of the market, I'm sorry, but get it out.

[Mark]

People always say, why do you guys say have two years of expenses in retirement? This is why. Because here we are five years later from when we just went through this. You know, if it happens on a, I don't want to say regular basis, but it happens often enough that if you're retired or you're thinking about retiring, just have two years worth of cash on the sidelines.

[Jill Schlesinger]

And it's not like you don't have to be optimizing every part of your life. I think that that's really the, that's the misnomer in so much of this, which is it is okay to literally say I will give upside a break and protect against my downside. And I promise you, when you are no longer earning income, when you're not putting money into your retirement account and all of those things are not happening and you are just living off your portfolio a 10%, a 15% move, your million dollar portfolio is now 850, or it's 800 and you are sucking wind having that cash on the sidelines, that is a huge buffer to you. It's an emotional buffer and it's the actual buffer. All right, Mark, let's talk a little bit about. I went to my, my Federal Reserve expert, Mark Spindel, the author of the Myth of Fed Independence, co author. And I said, what do you think? What do you say? Did you see what the President tweeted at 11:00 in the morning on Friday about basically saying lower the rates, lower the rates. Right?

[Mark]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Okay, so what do you think the Federal Reserve is going to do?

[Mark]

I think for the time being they're just going to sit back and monitor this for a little while and see what, you know, he's been consistent. The data dictates what they do and I don't think that's going to change.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Yeah, no kidding. And I just want to be clear. Literally 15 minutes after that tweet, Powell was speaking in a public forum. Here's the quote. Are you ready? It will be very difficult to assess the likely economic effects of higher tariffs until there is greater certainty about the details, such as what will be tariffed at what level and for what duration and the extent. So basically he is saying that we are chilling out, we are doing nothing. And I think people are kidding themselves if they think the Fed is going to come to the rescue. I don't think that that is. Remember what, what did Diane Swonk say? She said, wait one second. This is a Federal Reserve that absolutely is haunted by what happened in the last five years and they do not want to make another mistake. That's it. They don't want to. They don't want to. So I wouldn't be counting on that. I wouldn't be counting on the Fed coming To the rescue. But I would absolutely, positively say to people, you know, if the economy falls apart and the. There. There is no inflation, it's like we're in def. We're in deflation or disinflation. Yeah, that's when the Fed's going to move. But that's not happening yet, gang.

[Mark]

It's only two days.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Oh, my God, it feels like two.

[Mark]

Years, two days of complete chaos.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Unbelievable. It's really unbelievable. How do we want to leave people? So, I mean, it's scary. It really is. I get it. If you got a question. Of course. We want to make sure that you feel like we're there for you and we are here for you. One of the benefits of going through these horrible situations like we're going through is to say you should remember how bad you feel. Because only with that sort of seared into your memory bank will you learn lessons. You know, my father used to say, you know how you season a piece of meat? You pound it with a mallet. You know how you become a seasoned investor, you go through a few different market cycles and you get pounded and you learn a lot of lessons. You know, right now we are with the s and P500. We're down 17.5% from the recent high. Mark. I looked it up, you know when the recent high was? February 19th.

[Mark]

Yeah, yeah. I remember because that's when we got an email from a guy saying he went to cash completely.

[Jill Schlesinger]

Yeah, that was our guy.

[Betterment Representative]

Right.

[Jill Schlesinger]

And we were like, figure out maybe he'll get back in. So maybe if you were so smart, get back in. I don't know what's going to happen next. I know we're here for you. I know that. If you need anything, we really want to help you out. If you're feeling nervous, run your situation by us. Maybe you'll feel less nervous if you have that in hand. So go to the website jillonmoney.com, click the contact us button. Let us know if you need us in any way, shape or form. We're here for you. Or you're a federal worker. I. Are you someone who's looking at a job loss? You work in media and you're freaking out. Oh, by the way, Mark, friend of the show, Terry, she bought on Friday. No. Good for her.

[Mark]

She's learning.

[Jill Schlesinger]

There's our girl. I'm so happy for her. So I felt great about that. So if you need anything, just go to the website jill on money.com and click the contact us button. All right. Mark is a special episode A Monday special report from Jill and Mark. So don't forget, you can subscribe to us on the Odyssey app or wherever you find your favorite podcasts. Leave us a rating and review wherever you listen and try to do something nice for someone else. Today, people are really getting wound up. Make sure you don't get wound up. Remember what what David Booth said, tune out the noise. Don't get wound up by looking at your accounts. If you're wound up, get in touch with us. Let us bring you back, okay? We're here for you, so change your work, change your wealth, change your life. Thanks for listening. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Foreign.

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