Jill on Money with Jill Schlesinger

Episode: Is the Fed Ready to Cut Rates?

Date: September 16, 2025
Host: Jill Schlesinger, CFP®
Special Segment: Jill’s CBS Face the Nation Interview with Major Garrett

Episode Overview

On this timely episode, Jill Schlesinger explores the impending Federal Reserve rate decision, dissecting what’s at stake as the Fed prepares for its first rate move of 2025. Setting the context with recent policy shifts, inflation challenges, a cooling labor market, and the impact of tariffs, Jill shares her recent appearance on CBS’s Face the Nation with Major Garrett. The discussion translates complex macroeconomic forces into practical implications for job seekers, workers, and everyday consumers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Cuts

[00:52–02:32]

• Jill recaps the Fed’s recent rate history: last year’s three cuts amounted to a full percentage point, followed by a period of pause amid economic and political disturbances.
• Anticipation is high for a new rate cut, either 0.25% or 0.50%, at the current two-day meeting.

"It's the first day of a two day Federal Reserve policy meeting and for the first time since last December, we are going to likely see rate cuts." – Jill Schlesinger [00:52]

2. Balancing Growth and Inflation in a Murky Economy

[02:32–03:41]

• The Fed faces dual mandates: stable prices and maximum employment.
• Recent data shows a weakening labor market alongside re-accelerating inflation, though not to post-pandemic extremes.

"The job market is weakening at the same time that inflation is re accelerating ... but it's the job market that is getting slower, faster. We've got to concentrate on that." – Jill Schlesinger [02:46]

• The quarter-point cut seems more likely to “get things restarted” without overreacting.

3. The Challenge of Data Dependency

[03:41–05:25]

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s mantra of “data dependency” is tough in this environment due to noisy, sometimes conflicting reports.
• The pandemic’s disruptive effect on both the economy and statistical tracking leads to extraordinary uncertainty.

"There are so many different aspects to what's going on in the economy right now. The cross currents are really difficult ... the most difficult time to judge the next steps of the economy in the last 40 years." – Jill Schlesinger [04:39]

4. Labor Market Realities: “No Fire, No Hire”

[05:25–06:47]

• Current job climate is stable but not robust—firings are low, but so is new hiring in many sectors.
• Jill’s advice: stay put if you’re employed, be adaptable if you’re job searching. Sectors like healthcare are still growing.

"Anyone who has a job right now ... Tell people to stay where they are. Don't fly off the handle ... The adaptable candidate is going to be the one that wins in this economy." – Jill Schlesinger [05:39]

5. The Unfinished Story of Tariffs

[06:47–08:58]

• The U.S. and global economies are still bracing for the full impact of recent tariffs.
• Tariff uncertainty has stifled hiring in affected industries and contributed to recent price increases, but economists expect this to be a short-term bump rather than a sustained surge.

"Prices are set to rise over the next, say, six months ... Once those prices go up, we'll switch and make different choices." – Jill Schlesinger [07:17]

• Concern especially for middle and lower-income consumers as higher prices become the new normal.

6. Energy Prices and The Cost of AI

[08:58–10:45]

• Gasoline prices have eased, but electricity bills are climbing—driven in part by surging demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure.
• Despite market highs in stocks, consumers feel squeezed—a paradox that may define the coming year.

"That electricity story is a story of artificial intelligence ... That's why you are seeing those prices go up." – Jill Schlesinger [09:20]
"We are seeing the S&P 500, NASDAQ, the Dow, all at all time highs ... but consumers feel burdened." [09:47]

7. The Big Takeaway

[10:45–10:58]

• Economy remains in a “murky transitional period.”
• Jobs, prices, and global conditions are in flux, making this an unusually challenging time for forecasting or decision-making.

"We are in this murky transitional period." – Jill Schlesinger [10:55]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This is the most difficult time to judge the next steps of the economy in the last 40 years."
  — Jill Schlesinger [04:39]

• "We're not going back to scary post pandemic inflationary surge, but inflation is starting to move in the wrong direction."
  — Jill Schlesinger [02:55]

• "The adaptable candidate is going to be the one that wins in this economy."
  — Jill Schlesinger [06:31]

• "Prices are set to rise over the next, say, six months or so. Not great for holiday shopping, I know."
  — Jill Schlesinger [07:37]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:52 – Jill introduces the episode’s focus and Fed history recap
• 02:32–03:41 – Balancing Fed mandates: growth vs. inflation
• 04:00 – “Data dependency” in uncertain economic times
• 05:25 – Labor market overview; “No Fire, No Hire” explained
• 06:47 – Tariffs' ongoing effects on jobs and inflation
• 08:58 – Energy price duality: gas down, electricity up (AI’s role)
• 10:45 – Wrapping up: the present “murky transitional period”

Episode Flow & Takeaways

The episode breaks down the complexities of the current U.S. economy, demystifying the Fed’s impending interest rate decision and providing clear, actionable insight for everyday listeners. Jill’s signature, practical tone pervades the conversation, emphasizing job market realities, the evolving story on tariffs and inflation, and the surprising impact of AI on utility bills.

Bottom Line:
The U.S. economy in September 2025 is marked by uncertainty and contradictions: labor markets cool but don’t collapse, prices edge up but aren’t spiraling, and the Fed must stay nimble amid crosswinds. Jill advises caution, adaptability, and an eye on the job market as the best defense for individuals in uncertain times.

Connect and Participate:
Listeners with questions about their own financial situations are encouraged to reach out at jillonmoney.com, and to sign up for newsletters and live events.

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