← Josh Pate's College Football Show
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Josh Pate
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Josh Pate
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- [01:31]
Josh Pate
Alton, Texas. A legacy is a beautiful thing, but only if it survives I'm a real people Dim upon the left. I'm looking. I'm just flipping through and there's a lot of truth in tonight's show. There kind of always is. But specific truths tonight, maybe offensive truths, uncomfortable truths. But then again, why are we here if not to make people a little uncomfortable? Also, a surprising bit of news as to where I and a member of the Pate State staff will be tomorrow. Hint it will not be. Nashville, Tennessee. We're jam packed. We are high atop a sunny, pristine Chamber of Commerce esque downtown Nashville, Tennessee on this Sunday night, April 26th, the year of our Lord 2026. A lot of spring games. Well, some spring games happened yesterday, so I got a lot of thoughts on that. The draft happened over the weekend and I've got some college football related truths that I think the draft told us. Now the draft is really good at that. The NFL draft I think is a lot better than college football bowl season about telling the truth when it comes to the landscape of the sport. But you got to require or add the proper context and we do both here. So I'll do that tonight. But you know what else is tonight, Jesse? It's that time of year. Not Christmas, not Thanksgiving, although we love both seasons. But respectfully it's bold prediction season. And those of you who are new around here, strap in. Those of you who have been around here for a while, some of you are about to embarrass yourselves. Some others are about to make history and earn CHA live supremacy in the process. So we'll see whomst is whomst. All that plus job approval ratings on tonight's show. I told you we are jam packed. They're watching us in Grand Rapids, Michigan, Sheffield, Alabama, Eugene, Oregon, Sunset, Texas. Thank you so much. Wherever you are, take two seconds. Lock in on me. Take two seconds. Subscribe to the channel if you haven't already cause it's free and it just helps us out. Thank you so much. Let's dive in. I hold in my hand truths, at least in my opinion, about what the NFL draft just told us. The NFL Draft. Thursday, Friday, Saturday we did our own draft side cast here. It felt like a telethon. I felt like we were on air like 24 hours straight. But what did the draft teach us about the truth as it relates to college football? This is not an NFL show. It's college football show. Firstly, I thought the numbers with the SEC and the Big Ten reflected by the NFL draft holders were the total reality of the current landscape of college football. And I was very, very interested as to how this was going to go. My guess was that the Big Ten was going to dominate round one. The SEC was going to dominate the round one through seven totality of the draft. And that's exactly what happened. In fact, the SEC ended up. They actually ended up with the most picks ever from a conference. Right, Jesse? So 87 is a new record. And what does that tell you? Well, it tells you that if your opinion is that the Big Ten is the best at the top of any conference in college football right now, it's reflected by the NFL draft. If your opinion is still top to bottom, the SEC is probably the deepest conference in college football. That too is reflected by the NFL draft. Now that is my opinion. So it's very, very convenient that the NFL draft pointed that out. I just stated what I thought was a basic fact Saturday as that was sort of rounding out round seven or so. And I said that I got so much pushback on it. It's like it's just reality. It's reality when it comes to strength of schedule modeling. It's reality when it comes to the competitive landscape of each respective conference. It's nothing to be mad at. I would prefer to be in the Big Tens boat. I think I would prefer to have multiple teams that maybe at their best are better than what the SEC has to offer, because I'm trying to win national championships. But if we're arguing which league top to bottom is the deepest, well, I'm going to go with the one that continues to run away in NFL draft totals. Now, I think that was this David Hale. David Hale put this out if you're listening on podcast, David Hale did a really good job charting just the overall totals, but he did it linearly over several years. And if you're listening on podcast, I'm going to explain to you what those watching on YouTube are seeing. That red line, those are total draft picks out of the SEC over the last several years and corresponding with that, the blue total is Big Ten and so on and so forth. So you'll notice two conferences have pulled away from the pack in recent years. It's not surprising that it's the SEC and it's the Big Ten. You'll also notice, and I'm going to make this point a little bit later on, the ACC and the Big 12 have seen an uptick as well. Certainly not in line or certainly not on par with what the SEC and the Big Ten are doing. But all that is evidence of is the talent drain from the lower levels up to the top levels. It's a reality. It's an inconvenient truth, but it's a truth nonetheless, whether people want to acknowledge it or not. Secondly, the parody myth, I think in a lot of cases continues to be exposed. Parody is not a myth, though. So college football parody exists. I think it merely requires context. So the parody that everyone keeps pointing out in college football is that, oh, more teams have a shot at a title now. Well, that is true. And if that was all you were looking for, then put a period on the end of the sentence. Yes, you have your parity because it is true that the rosters don't look like Saban's rosters did, or Kirby's vintage Georgia rosters. I would argue Ohio State last two years notwithstanding. Very, very few rosters look like that anymore. So. So it is true that the talent has been dispersed a little bit more. I think there was sort of a rainbow lollipop like fairy tale idealistic view of what the portal in nil were going to do for parody in college football. And it's a total myth. It's been the exact opposite. What if I told you, Courtesy of Reddit cfb, what if I told you in this past NFL Draft, 74 Division 1 schools had players Taken. What would that number mean to you? Here's what it should mean. That is the lowest number since 1938. We have never had fewer schools with at least one player drafted since 1938. And we all remember that year's draft. Phenomenal class, as I recall. Unique teams with draft picks continues to decline. And the reason is because the talent continues to funnel. Now, it doesn't funnel to one or two teams, but it is funneling to one level. If that's fun for you, if that's what you love, then okay, I don't tend to love it. I prefer watching the draft where randomly a guy can come out of southeastern Louisiana and wow, what a story. That kid's just playing for LSU now. And that's great for LSU now. I don't necessarily know that it's. It's hurting the sport overall. There is something else, I think that is hurting the sport overall. But it's a reality now. Why am I hammering that home? Because, you know, it sounds like I'm making an argument to fight a point someone's not making. Well, not exactly. There are points being made out there that I'm sort of reverse engineering my response to. So I gave the response first, and it is to address my feeling on the stance of G5 and the structure overall of college football right now, because it's something I've stated on the show a few times. A lot of people fight me on it. I understand why they fight me on it, but I think I'm right on it. And so my feel for a while, and I think it's backed up by the draft. So my feeling on the G5 continues to be backed up by draft data. And my feeling is that I think in terms of pure competitive logic, it is insane that we have the current setup. We have pure competitive logic. What I didn't say is what makes you feel good, or whether you think everyone should have a shot at this or it feels good if everyone has a shot at that. I'm speaking in terms of pure competitive logic. Absent anything else, it makes no Sense to pretend 138 teams are playing the same caliber of football. It's never made sense, but it's never made less sense than it does now. And the only argument from a competitive logic standpoint that I ever get on this is, well, how could you ever have room for an 0708 Boise if you put the G5 at their own level? How could you ever have room for, like, a 2017 UCF? How will you ever know if they don't have their shot. Those don't exist anymore. They don't exist anymore. It's never happening. That's never coming back. I'd love for it to. I don't like the point I'm making. I much prefer the old world, not the new world. The old world was Chris Peterson could evaluate his tail off and they could turn over every rock in all four corners of the country. And then they could get some kids on campus that didn't have offers from USC and Texas and Oregon. And then you didn't hear from them for two years because they were developing up there. They took their red shirt and then they sat behind guys and they had thousands of reps by the time they're starting as juniors and then they elevate in that senior class. They could go do something special. Those guys aren't at Boise anymore. The moment they pop on the radar after being recruited and then developed on Boise's dime, they're just off to Washington or they're off to UCLA or they're off to Texas A and M. So the pieces that it took for those great stories to come together at the G5 level, it doesn't exist anymore. Actually, look at Max Olson's number here. Just mind boggling. If you think about this from 10 years ago to today. Another sign of the times and the impact of transfer portal plus nil. 14 total players were selected from the G6 level in this draft. Ohio State had 11 on their own, by the way. Now look at the second number. So keep in mind what I'm talking about. The drain of G5 talent. Once it pops on the radar, it just, it just goes to the higher level. So there were 14 total players drafted from the entire level of G6. There were 39 players drafted that were former G6 players that that transferred to power four. So the players still exist. It's just that they're spending their final year or years at the college level in the upper tier. I saw Chris Vanini say something. Hey, don't take this number to mean that There were only 16 NFL draft caliber players playing in the G sex level last year. It just so happens that some of them were younger. They will end up being NFL draft caliber. That's true. It's also true most of them won't be playing at the G6 level by the time they're drafted. So my point is backed up by that sort of thing. My point is it's never been, it's never made less sense to try and shoehorn the entirety of G5 into what we just call FBS and pretend like all 138 teams are competing for the same championship. Now, your pushback on that could be okay. Well, if you want to use that logic, what about the dregs of the Big 12? What about the dregs of the ACC? No, they're terrible, too. And it's even more inexcusable that they're terrible because they have way more resources than even the top levels of G5. So it's even more pathetic the teams that are perennial bottom dwellers in the ACC because they actually get money that you don't get access to. So. Point taken on that. My point is programs, groups of teams with roughly comparable resource pools ought to be competing each other against each other. They'll be a best and a worst in any cluster. They'll be a great and they'll be a terrible in any cluster. But when it comes to the G5, they're not even. It's not playing the same game right now. Also, my personal feel, this other, this other number. Max Olson put out twice, two mentions for our buddy Max Olson in the early going here. I hope this number is peaked. So he said a new record, as expected, was set in this draft. 123 of the NFL draft picks transferred during their college career. 48% of all draft picks in this past draft class transferred. That total has jumped from 82 to 123 in two years. I sure do hope that numbers peaked. I'm not even going down the rabbit hole of what is right and wrong and what rights players should have and what rights they shouldn't have and what the NCAA should be like. I'm going much more basic than that. I'm just talking about what I think is in the greater overall interest of college football. That number is not good for college football. It's not good for college football because it leads to fan disinterest. What it doesn't lead to is people immediately walking away from watching games. Because anytime you try and broach this subject, anytime you try and tell a simple truth, like 48% of players just drafted, transferred at some point in their college career, and you try and explain in simple terms, yeah, that's probably not great for the sport. Someone's going to come in from left field and say, well, why shouldn't they have the right to transfer? I never said they shouldn't. Well, what do you mean it's bad for the sport? TV ratings have never been higher. Well, that's probably not the first sign that interest has been Impacted, that'd be the last sign. You know, you don't get divorced on the day you and your wife start disagreeing. That's the last step in the marriage. Dissolving people walking away from watching college football, that'd be way down the road. That's the last thing. Ask yourself this though. Are there early signs that interest may have waned a little bit in the aggregate because of stuff like this? Do people pay as much attention to national signing day as they used to? Do you feel as much buzz around spring football as you used to? Are there more people checking out in January and checking back in in August than there used to be? I'm in the business of year round college football and I can definitively tell you the answer is yes. Now you could look at that one of two ways. Well, hey, as long as they're there in the fall, who really cares? You know, watching the games, that's all that matters. That's the ultimate end goal. We just got to have people watching the game. Yes, that is true. They will be watching the games. I am arguing about the connective tissue between the public and college football. And it is heavily tied to romanticism, pageantry and tradition. And it's heavily tied to feeling a different thing about a sophomore at the University of Wisconsin. Then you do a second year player for the Green Bay Packers. The Green Bay packers chose that guy, whereas the kid chose Wisconsin. Now this is a little bit of a bygone era way of speaking, but it's the beauty of college football. Now once upon a time you could afford to emotionally invest in that sophomore at Wisconsin. Cause he's going to be a junior at Wisconsin next year, then he'll be a senior at Wisconsin. Half the draftable players in the sport are moving. Which begs the question, why should I emotionally invest into following Wisconsin recruiting? Why should I emotionally invest into Wisconsin signing class? Why should I emotionally invest into hoping guys are developing when my ultimate fear is just that they're going to develop enough to where Ohio State puts a big offer on the table for them? You don't think that has a net negative impact on college football? I would disagree with you if you said you don't think so. Did you also notice, Jesse, the NFL maybe with the, the faintest sign of a bead of sweat down the forehead for the first time? Yeah, noticing. Boy, a lot of these kids are staying in school. Shame on them. A lot of these kids stay in school because, oh, I don't know, they're making more money staying in school than they are going out and getting drafted by the Baltimore Ravens in the sixth round. Boy, this is really cutting into our draftable talent pool. Hate to see it, man. Hey, it. It pains me to no end to see the NFL suffer like this. It pains me to no end to hear NFL scouts and general managers talk about the lack of overall development at the quarterback position because the guys keep moving around and they never really plant their developmental root system anywhere. I hate that. I hate that. You got a multi hundred billion dollar organization that's looking at its developmental pipeline and saying someone's not doing all the work for us anymore. That's terrible. Oh, that's awful. I hate that. You can tell it rips my heart out. I've always thought the setup, the relationship between the NFL and college football has been absurdly one sided. College football does everything for the NFL. College football develops players for the NFL where they don't need a minor league. College football also markets players. You know who Fernando Mendoza is long before he got drafted, despite the NFL not having to spend a dime in marketing and promotion for him. Do you know how frequently that exists anywhere else in major business? It really doesn't. And yet the NFL enjoys that. And what do they do? What do they do? Do they send thank you cards? Do they bend over backwards to help college football out? No, no. They actually encroach on everything they can encroach on. You want to know one of the biggest hurdles that college football has to clear when it comes to their precious playoff expansion and whatnot? It's figuring out broadcast dates. Because the NFL's trying to play games on every day they can, including every Saturday in December. So until the NFL tries to, oh, I don't know, lift more than a finger or two to help college football, I couldn't care less how underdeveloped the players are. Do your own development. It's not college football's problem. We've got our own problems. And also the truth told about the Clemson Tigers is that that had to be the most disappointing team out of all these teams that underachieved last year. Clemson comes into the season top 10. I had him top 10. Pretty much everyone had him top 10. Everyone expected coming off a playoff appearance. All this returning production, everything set. Cade Klubnick's a multi year starter under a multi year offensive coordinator. It's going to go bang this year and it just went splat. Sometimes it goes splat because you just didn't have the horses that the public thought you had. Yet Clemson had nine players drafted Clemson had five guys taken in the first three rounds. The players were there, the talent was there. And you want to know why? I look at them this year and I really, I struggle to garner the kind of hope that I want for them or maybe the kind of encouragement, maybe optimism. It's because last year wasn't the mirage, the preseason mirage that sometimes it ends up being if a team falls flat. The players were there. And you look at what was there last year and those were replaced by question marks this year and you're going to open at lsu. You got multiple losable games first month of the season. I don't know. I just know it brought back old memories. I thought I had put the Clemson 2025 failures in the rearview mirror. And then I watch all these guys getting drafted and I'm like, oh, that's right. They had all of them. Wow. They had all those guys. Okay, anyway, so those were some truths that I thought the draft told
- [22:33]
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- [23:30]
Josh Pate
Express it now. Just pop yourself.
- [23:32]
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- [24:35]
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- [25:21]
Josh Pate
as for this past weekend and welcome aboard by the way. Happy to have you guys. Got a nice, nice healthy audience here on this Sunday night. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel if you have not already subscribed. Had a bunch of spring games this past weekend. Oregon played Penn State. Sort of did something in the rain up there, Jesse. Notre Dame, Indiana. So I want to talk to you about Oregon for a second. Got some eyes on some of this. Talked to some people. Good, solid sourcing on the ground. Even Nacos contributed at Oregon. They played a game. Blue skies up in Austin Stadium. Big crowd up there. I'm going to read you a stat line, Jesse. I want you to tell me who this is. Four receptions, 110 yards, one touchdown. Evan Stewart. People thought he was a ghost, like he didn't exist anymore. No, Evan Stewart is still very real. And Evan Stewart is part of, along with decori and Moore and several others, a group that may end up being one of, if not the best overall pass catching groups in college football. Hey, check me on this. Did I say Dylan or Evan? I did say Evan, right? I said Evan. Okay, because I got Dylan Stewart later in the show. I've said his name a lot today and I cannot stand when I'm driving home and only then someone tells me I got a name wrong because it happens about once per show. So yeah, pass catching not going to be a problem up there. Also, defensive line not Going to be a problem up there to the point that if you ask around Oregon, the name they keep mentioning is Aiden Breland. And Aiden Breelin is a redshirt sophomore who I guess going into spring and maybe even coming out of spring, you would not pencil in in their starting four. It's just that Oregon's in this weird situation where just mathematically you would expect from the production they had last year to lose one or multiples of those guys to either the draft or the portal or something like that. But since it's Oregon, they didn't lose anybody. So they bring back their entire starting four on the defensive line. And so Elijah rushing, Matt Johnson, like Aiden Breland, those dudes aren't maybe even trotting out there with the ones in week one. And it is an extremely deep defensive line group. It's an extremely deep pass catching group. They may have the first overall pick in the upcoming draft with Dante Moore. So offensive line is going to be a question there and I'm going to do Joe Lorg a big favor. Special teams look terrible in the spring game, and so I can only assume that Oregon special teams will suck this year until someone proves otherwise. And a good, close personal friend of the program happens to be the special teams coach up there. So Joe Lord's just got to do better. Just got to do better. I'd hate to see special teams hold him back. Penn State, less of a spring game, more of a practice. Terrible weather, half the team was out. You did get a good look at the updated construction timeline. I guess if you went and you took your poncho and your umbrella and whatnot. So the Rocco Beck timeline we've been following that he's been one of the players who have been out with injury this spring. Looks good. Jesse, scale of 1 to 10 with your hand, how good do you feel that he'll be ready for fall camp? That's an eight. That's a voice. Sounded like a solid nine earlier. Only an eight. Okay, well, I feel good. I feel like he'll be okay. Kobe Howard is a sophomore wide receiver. Now, if you are around Penn State, you know what I'm about to tell you. If you weren't, Kobe Howard was one of those guys last year. You've all had them at various points in your fandom where you watched your team and you were high on a guy and you were wondering, man, how come he's not getting in more? Especially if you're struggling in his position, man, why is he not getting in more? Well, I think based on what we're hearing from out of there. And Pete nakos over at on3.com did a really good job of putting some feedback together that he had heard from Penn State today. I think he may be a standout for them this year. Now when I say standout, two of their top wide receiver options were out for spring. So he got, he got a lot of attention. And he profiles as like a solid wide receiver 3 option but with really, really good upside. So, you know, not just like pigeonholed there forever. Malachi Goodman, that was a top 40 overall player in the last recruiting cycle, feel really good. Feels like they feel really good about him at left tackle. Now the dynamic most of the time in spring is defense ahead of offense. There is a pretty unique dynamic at Penn State. Best I can gather in that A lot of the Iowa State guys transferred on both sides of the ball, but on the offensive side they came over with their coordinator, Taylor Mouser. So there's not a lot of acclimation that has to happen there. And so it's felt like when you compare that to Danton Lynn coming there as the defensive coordinator and trying to implement a much different system than that sort of like 3, 3, 5 sort of dynamic that these guys played in under Hickok over at Iowa State, it felt like offense was probably a little ahead of defense. Man, that'll rectify itself over time at Penn State. What about Notre Dame? Massive crowd. Massive crowd at Notre Dame. I am told that Notre Dame had the second most attended spring game in history for fairly good football program there over the years. By the way, and I am here with one message. I don't want you to look foolish this fall when Notre Dame's effectiveness at running back takes you by surprise because I watched the draft just like you did. I saw him lose two first round running backs. Crazy stat. You would think if a team had two first round caliber tailbacks on its roster last year and both of them are gone, then, boy, that's going to be a really deficient position the upcoming year. And you got good reason to think that most places it would be. Notre Dame is just not one of them. Anais Williams. Aeneas. Anais. Aeneas. I'm going. Aeneas. Yeah, I mean there's an actual E in the name there. Anias Williams, really, really good player. I'm not doing the whole compare him to Jeremiah Love thing. What I'm going to say is from a player profile perspective, trusting him being effective out of the backfield in the receiving game, being able to trust him being able to also trust that he doesn't have to shoulder the entire load. You know, being able to trust Kedron Young, who should be good, by the way, I would, I would assume, based on his own words, he should be good sometime over the summer. Coming back from injury, they're really, really good. Still in that room. They've still got really good depth in that room. So if Notre Dame doesn't get it done this fall, it won't be because they failed to run the ball. Now, C.J. carr, interesting quote here. So C.J. carr at quarterback, he's going to be a great player this year. So we're really nitpicking at this point. Mike Denbrock, possibly in an attempt to pull the hot air balloon back to earth a little bit, had this to say about C.J. carr.
- [32:23]
Jacob Goldstein
Quote.
- [32:23]
Josh Pate
C.J. carr is in a position now where he can steer the ship. Sometimes he steers it in a ditch and sometimes he steers it on the straight and narrow. We're still working through all that. Okay, this is key. Trash your best players in spring. You have got to keep the hype balloons in check. And sometimes they need to be deflated and sometimes they need to be popped. Then you don't have to throw them totally under the bus. Just put a little blood in the water. You remember what I said about Bryce Underwood the other day. It's not the worst thing in the world. If the last thing people see of you in spring and is you not looking great, that could sometimes be a perfect ingredient to the summer recipe. Defensive line's good, defensive lines deep. Their entire linebacker room is back. They got probably the best corner in the country and he's not alone in Leonard Moore. It's going to be a really, really tough out. I have no idea how Notre Dame would miss the playoff this year. And if they're in there, this team can absolutely win it all. Absolutely win it all. Indiana had their spring game. You may be thinking, that's weird. I looked all over Saturday, I didn't see Indiana. Well, that's cause they had it Thursday night at 8 o' clock Eastern. Notably, the NFL draft also started Thursday night at 8:00 Eastern. It's. You're just dealing with a different kind of human in Kurt Signetti. I got no problem with it. But you're dealing with a different kind of human. Was not much time for Josh Hoover, who is the quarterback transfer from tcu. Didn't have a lot of time. Kind of newness on the offensive line. Had a couple of guys out. Bryant Haynes just sending message after message both on the field and on Twitter. Did you? I mean, he put out voluntarily, by the way. Bryant Haynes takes to Twitter and says, these were the six toughest offenses we faced last year. Paul Feinbaum was one of them. Not even number six either. Oregon was on there twice and so and then he deleted it, which is probably the most disappointing thing Brian Haynes has done so far this year. Hadn't been much disappointment. Nick Marsh at wide receiver. We've been looking forward to talking about him there. 6, 3, 2 hundo trying to backfill Surratt and Cooper off to the next level. Nick Marshall, I have been high on as a player and hopefully I finally get some return on that emotional investment. Tyler Morris is there. Charlie Becker's still there. So look, that wide receiver room is going to be good, I think. Again, defense ahead of offense. Not the biggest shock. Also not a shock. Indiana looks like they're going to be the real deal again this fall. And you know, I really had nothing creative because we don't have Indiana specific merch in the store yet. Just put the clown nose on a shirt. That would be Indiana specific for me, not for them. Paid state material. It's wide open. It's available for business right now. We have got new items in there and so a lot of you need T shirts. Everybody needs a T shirt. Even people who don't wear them don't know this. But you need T shirts. We got them@patestatematerial.com A lot of meetings happening, by the way, throughout the spring for new new items that will eventually make their way to the store this upcoming fall. I have listened to your suggestions and about what we should have in the store that we don't have already. We're working on it.
- [35:46]
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- [36:17]
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- [36:41]
Josh Pate
Not anyone Else express it now just pop yourself.
- [36:45]
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- [37:48]
Jacob Goldstein
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- [38:23]
Josh Pate
Let's move on. It is job approval season now. In the political world, that means a lot of focus grouping and that means a lot of different news organizations putting out a lot of different confusing numbers leading to an eventual election or whatnot. No, no, no. Not in college football. In college football. Here is our scientific methodology. I lick my index finger, I put it in the wind and I can tell fan base to fan base, what the job approval rating is in the moment for a head coach. Take for example, Steve Sarkeesian. We're going around the SEC here. Steve Sarkeesian's job approval at Texas. Right now we've got right at an A minus. Outsiders would think, oh, Sark hasn't won a national title there, which translates to he hasn't won anything in some circles, Sark didn't even make the playoff last year. How could it be A minus? Well, all I can tell you, fresh off a trip to Texas last week, is I get the feeling Texas folks are uniquely in tune with where they were and where they are now. Where they were was not great and where they are now is their floor is way, way higher than it's been in a long time. Not to mention there is this sense of just a matter of time until he does win it. I agree with that though. I agree with that sentiment. So even if I were grading him, it'd be an A minus for me too. They have got a great structure out there. Really, really good culture, really good dynamic. Everybody's kind of pulling in the same direction. The one thing that I will say about this upcoming year, as much as I feel Sark is in really, really good standing right now because of the expectation level that's going to be on them this year if they don't follow through. If they were to somehow have like an eight and four year this year, it would turn on him quick. Now I want to tell you something. 8 and 4 would not be a disaster for Texas or any team with the schedule they're going to play. By our internal numbers, we think they have the toughest schedule in the country this upcoming year. They got a nine game league schedule, plus Ohio State in the non conference. 8 and 4 wouldn't be terrible. 8 and 4 would be viewed as a failure because there are national championship or bust type expectations around them. And I don't think it's unwarranted because I think they could have a heck of a team. But they are going to have a death march of a schedule to have to get to the postseason. And so all I'm saying is while it's A minus now, that kind of schedule affords the potential for like a 7 and 5 to pop up. And if there were a 7 and 5 then this is no longer an A minus. Next up, Shane Beamer. What is Shane Beamer's current job approval rating among South Carolina fans? I'd tab it at a C plus. This is my guess. If we were to poll South Carolina fans, I think it'd come in at a C plus. I think it should be higher than that only because as much as there may be recency bias baked into a C plus, if that is in fact what it is, I would go back one year further. So everyone who wants to say 4 and 8, 4 and 8, 4 and 8,. I'd say, well if we're going to go back in time, go back in time two years where they were knocking on the door of the College Football Playoff. And let's be honest about where we are. This is South Carolina. And the truth about South Carolina, especially in the current landscape, is if you're turning in one of those years, in any three or four year rolling stretch, you ought to be way higher than a C. So my guess is that people would disagree with me. My guess is people would look and say, absolutely not. All due respect to two years ago, they'd look Jesse, they'd say, yeah, that's why he's as high as a C. We factored all that in. You know what else we're factoring in? We can't have Lenora Sellers on this team and be four and eight. We can't have Dylan Stewart on this team and be four and eight. Well, here's what I think. Yes, you can. Because it's all part of a natural life cycle at a non Georgia, non Ohio State, non Texas, non Oregon type program in the modern age of college football. The other thing that I think sticks, the other thing working heavily against Shane Beamer, is I think there was a little dynamic shift that afternoon in College Station last year when they're up 30 to 3 and they lose that game. You remember going into halftime, I mean, they're, they're celebrating like he's as jubilant as if he just won a game. And it was terrible optics because he ended up losing the game. And I think he let a little bit too much normal human emotion work in there because people are doubting you and they're doubting you and then you go and you just completely catch A and M on the chin with an uppercut and they're building and you feel like the game's over. At 30 to 3. He felt like the game was over and it wasn't over and they let it slip away and the season slipped away. And I, I don't know that he's shaking that because I still have South Carolina folks mention that to me. So I don't know that he's shaking that C plus. That's what I'd put on him right now if I had to guess. Now, speaking of A and Mike Elko is a different story. I think Mike Elko's job approval rating amongst A and M fans has to be an A. How would it not be an A? Maybe not an A plus, you know, because that's reserved for beating Miami in the playoffs last year and moving on. So, yeah, technically it could be better, but what's there to not be happy about? You're at. You're in the College Football Playoff, hosting a home game in year two. Recruiting and portal are both well inside top 10 caliber. The direction is clear. There's no more questioning the identity or questioning the development internally. You know, for a long time, A and M was recruiting fine. They were bringing in talent. They weren't pumping out talent. And you notice how that NFL draft number starts to change here. And I'm not sure it's just a coincidence that regime change has coincided with that. At Texas A and M, the floor's just been reestablished, you know, so, like, what the worst case is for them, I think has been reestablished. I got to give them an A. That one's pretty easy. Here's one that's not so easy. Eli Drinkwitz at Missouri. Last one I'm going to do tonight. Eli Drinkwitz Job approval rating at Missouri. If I had to guess, I think it would only be a B plus amongst Missouri fans, which is too low in my non Missouri fan opinion. It'd be too low. He is 29. 9 over the past three years at Missouri. It's a phenomenal number. They just sent six guys to the NFL draft, four of them in the first three rounds. So they've been developing some underrated talent because they've lost some talent guys. They've lost some talented coaches, too. And he's backfilled there effectively enough to where they're still a contender. So I think it should be an A. Here's my suspicion on why it may drop to a B plus. Drink's name was in the conversation a lot last year, which is normally a reflection of the fact that you're doing a good job. He never really shot it down and there's no right way to handle it. I'm not blaming him at all. I'm saying if I'm a fan in Cape Girardo or Joplin or whatever, Jefferson City, just keep naming La Plata. Yeah. Marceline. I would look and I would say, well, I'm a Missouri fan, so I don't really care about any job outside of Missouri. And if you're the head coach at Missouri, you should think this is the best job in the world and you ought to shut down any speculation and plant roots for life. Is this a little bit of a warped way of viewing the world? Of course it is. But I don't blame any fan for feeling that way. I would. I feel that way about PEI State So you ought to feel that way about Missouri. And all I'm wondering is in the no win situation you're put in as a head coach, might his name have hung out there long enough to where some fringe portion of the fan base got a little turned off enough for it to drop down to a B plus? And also might that same fringe portion of the fan base look and say, wait a second, we had half a dozen guys drafted and only went 8 and 4. Why is that? I could see someone saying that is my point. So I'd give drink an A. I think the fan base would give him a B plus. Jesse, did you see the, see the Brad Arnold tweet? It's a big day tomorrow. You know, gonna be a very, very active weather day tomorrow. And close friend of the program there, Brad Arnold, known in the Chase community as the tornado sniffer, Brad Arnold said big chase day Monday requires a big guest hopping aboard and looking good for both. Well, that sounds like a big congratulations in order to Brad Arnold. It sounds like he's going to have a full Monday of storm chasing. And Jesse, based on this tweet, it sounds like he's got a big guest joining him. And you know what, if I know that guest like I think I do, that guest may be bringing a guest. It's not you, Jesse, but it could be someone sitting behind you. Again, I don't want to spill the beans on who the potential big guest will be. I'm just saying if, if my instincts are correct and I know chasing. If my instincts are correct, yeah, could be a big Monday for Brad Arnold. Look, I would just say humbly, if you're a college football fan and you don't care about storm chasing, fast forward over the next 20 seconds. If you're, you know, at least passively curious about this, you might want to stay tuned to the socials tomorrow. Oshpatecfb might have some fun extracurricular activity tomorrow. No immunity. No immunity needed. It's gonna be good wholesome extracurricular activity. Speaking of which, oh, I need, I needed the drum roll for this hard transition back to college football here. Ladies and gentlemen, it is bold prediction season as of, oh, about 11:30 this morning, the tweet went out. What is your boldest college football 2026 prediction you would bet your own money on? Here are the rules. We did this for three months last year. We're going to do it for three months again this year. I am taking four bold predictions per show basically until August. And anybody who submits predictions that we put on air that rate 9.5 or higher on my boldness scale and hit get chalice supremacy. I think three of them last year. Is that right, Jesse? I think we ended up giving away three chalice supremacy of all the bold predictions we took, of all the nonsense we put ourselves through, including one that I'm about to share with you in a few moments. Only three of you had 9.5 or higher boldness predictions that hit who will take home Chalai this year? Well, in honor of bold prediction season being back tonight, we are actually taking four bold predictions on chapter one of bold predictions that rate 9.5 or higher. Here's what they sound like. Jack from Daphne, Alabama. 10 of 12 College Football Playoff teams are repeats from last year. All right, that's a 9.75 for me. And I'm going to tell you why 10 of 12 are going to be repeats. Well, here's the problem with that. To me, remember, two G5 teams made it last year, Tulane made it, and JMU made it. Respectfully, I don't think either of them are making the playoff this year. And if I'm right about that, just off that information alone, Jack, you got to go 10 for 10 on the remaining teams that made it. And so that means Texas Tech's got to make it again and Indiana and Ohio State and Oregon have to make it again. Bama's got to make it again, Oklahoma's got to make it again, Miami's got to make it again. And more importantly, Notre Dame can't make it in. Like Texas can't make it in. You got to hit the exact order in the sec. And I think that's extremely unrealistic. Not to mention it's playoff or bust for Lincoln Riley this year. Maybe Jack thinks he busts, but what if he doesn't? Maybe Lincoln Riley makes it. So this is at least a 9.75. So it's. That's what bold prediction season is all about. Theoretically, we could see this, but it's a huge roll of the dice. Next up, we're headed to the Sooner State dean from Pensacola, Florida said John Mattier wins the Heisman, Oklahoma makes it to the Final Four. All right, we have some numbers available from FanDuel because this is a 9.5 on the boldness scale to me. And it's not that I think Mattier is going to be a bad player or Oklahoma is going to be a bad team, but that's not what he said. He said Matier is going to win the Heisman and oh you is going to make a semifinal at least in the College Football Playoff. So right now, what do we know here? We know that John Matier's Heisman odds are 16th. He's got the 16th best odds to win the Heisman. Oklahoma, just to make the playoff, has the 13th best odds. They're over under win total seven and a half. Their odds to make the playoff are plus 260. Those odds are 13th best. And you're saying not only do they have to make it, they have to make it at least to the semifinal, which means they have to make the playoff and win either one or two games, depending on whether they get the first round by or not. Obviously, there's heavy correlation here. If John Mattier wins the Heisman, Oklahoma probably had a great season. So, oh, you's probably in the playoff at the very least if Mattier wins the Heisman. But even that's not enough. It's not even enough just for him to win it and then to make the playoff. What if they were to lose first game or second game? They don't make the semifinal. So because of all those things just having to go right, I'm putting a 9.5 on it. Bradley, if you could just go ahead and put the next prediction up. I know if you're listening on podcast, you don't understand why you can hear people laughing through the glass in the studio. But I'll tell you. Deacon from Fort Myers, Florida has submitted the following bold prediction. Florida State wins the national championship. We assume he means in football. Drugs. Drugs. Stop it. Get some help. I had nothing. I wrote down drugs. That's all I wrote down. I just wrote down drugs. I have no notes. We. What am I supposed to say to that? I don't think he's serious, obviously. How many times would we need to simulate the season for this to happen? This would be all right. However surprising Indiana is right now from last year. Jesse, how much more surprising do you think Florida State led by Ashton Daniels winning the national championship would be? I think it would. Kinnell would admit this. Bryant McFadden would admit that we got any of a number of former FSU greats that we could put on speakerphone, as unprofessional as it would be and they would agree with me. Drugs. They would agree that FSU winning the national title this year would be more surprising than Indiana doing it last year. Over, under, win total six and a half. And that is with a relatively workable schedule because we hit up fanduel a couple of shows ago. If you Missed this and I said, give me Florida State's over under win total if they played Florida's schedule and it was four and a half. So that's how different, just difference of schedule made there. This is a 10 and it's insane. It's a cautionary tale on the fine line. You have to walk between insanity and boldness in bold prediction season. And lastly, this one's really bold. Shoff from College Station, Texas, he said, I've been waiting on this. The Big 12 will get two teams in the playoffs. Neither one will be Texas tech. That's a 9.5, possibly a 9.75. Either way, it qualifies for a chalice of supremacy if this hits. So I got, I got a tough time seeing this, but let's walk through it. So Texas Tech clearly has the best odds out of the Big 12 to make the playoffs. They have minus 400 odds to make the playoffs, plus 300 to miss if you want to bet that. More on that in a second. So Brigham Young is next best and they're way behind Texas Tech. And then Utah is comparable to Brigham Young. Then there's another teardrop and then there's Kansas State and Houston and like tcu. So two of these teams have to make the playoff while Texas Tech misses out. Now here's the good news. Keep these up. Bradley. Here's the good news. We went over to fanduel and said, theoretically, if someone wanted to parlay this, could they. They said, yeah, so let's just for fun put this together. You can bet Texas Tech to miss the playoffs and Brigham Young in Utah to make the playoff. You could parlay that. I don't advise it, but you could. That would come with a little over plus twelve thousand juice, which means a ten dollar bet on that would land you over $1200 in return. Again, it's your money, it's not my money. But it does get a 9.5 on the boldness scale. Bold prediction seasons like our version of the Dundees. It's very magical time. Very unique and magical time. They're watching us in Indianapolis, Indiana, St. Louis, Missouri. Rumors that we'll be there later tonight. Actually, just rumors. And Bakersfield, California. Thank you guys so much for that. We had a question about Arch, so Jason from Alamo, Tennessee hit us. He said, I'm seeing a lot of early Mott drafts. Putting Arch Manning number one overall. Do you think that's justified? It feels like everyone is sort of indicating he's college football's most important player in 2026. Good question, good questions. Firstly, Jason and everyone else, do we know that Arch is going to declare for the draft after this upcoming year? I mean, I know everyone assumes it, but do we know for sure? It's a little different cat. He marches to maybe the beat of a little bit different drum than normal folks. So firstly, let's just make sure he's going to declare for the draft. Number two, how do we define most important player? All right, so firstly, I wouldn't push back on the claim if you claimed that Arch Manning is the most important player in college football this upcoming year because he's the quarterback, a very high profile quarterback on one of the title favorites for this year. So I wouldn't push back on that. But I would also say even if you guarantee me Arch Manning is going to play at a high level this year, well, I kind of still got to know if the Texas run game is going to be there. I think it will. I got to know if the Texas offensive line situation worked itself out. I hope it will. I've got to ask myself, does Arch Manning have a great year in like a Ty Simpson sense or, or a Fernando Mendoza sense? Because Ty Simpson kind of shined individually and did it almost in spite of some of his surroundings last year, whereas Fernando Mendoza benefited from his surroundings and also heavily contributed. So like, what would an arch Manning Number 1 Overall Draft Type year look like? Because it could be one of the two. I'm sky high on Texas. So like, I think it'll be Arch excelling as part of a team that also does. But I don't know. I've been wrong a time or two so I got, I got to see that. And also if this year plays out as it should, I don't disagree that he'd go out for the draft if he has a great year, an injury free year. If Texas is strongly competitive in the sec, they make the College Football Playoff, maybe they win it all, but at the very least they make a run at the national title and everything lines up, then yeah, I would expect him to go out for the draft. But the other variable in the equation, which has been a variable in the equation for Mannings in the past, is what does the order of the draft look like? Because he does not have to come out financially, he does not need to come out. And if the New York jets or some woeful organization is sitting there with the overwhelming desire to draft him and he doesn't want to go there, he's the kind of guy who would just stay in school. There are worse places to be for another year than financially set in Austin, Texas, playing for the Longhorns. There are worse places to be. So one other thought here, if you're talking about him being the most important player, there's some places out there, there's some programs out there that they lost their quarterback right now, the season would go up in smoke. In fact, most places are like that. If Ole Miss lost Trinidad Chambliss, they're out of contention. If CJ Carr was gone at Notre Dame, wouldn't be good at all. Brennan Sorsby is the hope for Texas Tech. Darian Mensah at Miami. Like, what are they doing without those guys? I'm not saying Texas would feel good or be in prime position if Arch just said I quit today. But I think they could win with KJ Lacy. So also, a lot of that most important player conversation has to do with who's behind you and Texas. Look, candidly, I think Texas Twos could compete in some other conferences this year on the whole. So I especially think that if you kept the rest of their roster and it was K.J. lacy, I don't want to speak this into existence, mind you, but, yeah, I wouldn't push back on any of that. Number one overall draft pick, most important player in college football. I wouldn't push back on it. I would just say there's a lot of context that's needed and then it gets boring and monotonous. A lot of odds that I've mentioned tonight on the show and we're not done with the show, but a lot of the things I've mentioned Tonight, courtesy of FanDuel, exclusive odds provider of the show. I mean, we were locked in on San Antonio, Portland earlier. I was locked. Jesse didn't pay so much attention, but I was dialed in on Spurs, Blazers. Yeah, just big NBA guy. And so, you know, believe it or not, you can go bet that at FanDuel. It's much more likely if you're watching the show that you're interested in Texas over under nine and a half wins. It's much more likely that you're interested in Indiana making the playoff. Or maybe if you've become an Indiana hater, maybe you're a Bryant Haynes hater and you're just going to take it out on how you bet Indiana games. Don't do that. Take it from me, don't do that. But if you want to go ahead and do it anyway and ignore my advice, you could go do that at Fanduel right now. It's the exclusive odds provider of the show. No shortage of college football markets out there and on.
- [61:24]
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- [62:09]
Josh Pate
Okay, last thing tonight. This may not be fun. The Truth Teller series continues tonight. Going to talk about a guy here that we haven't touched a whole lot on recently and that's Luke Fickle at Wisconsin. The truth about Luke Fickle at Wisconsin is it feels like it's a do or die year for him. He went 7 and 6 his first year. He went 5 and 7 in year two. He went 4 and 8 in year three. I don't think anyone needs to be a math major to understand the trajectory there's and it's made all the more painful when you realize Wisconsin had the most rock steady identity in college football before that. In fact, paper popper from 2005 to 2019 pretty long time. Their lowest win total was 7. Fickles best win total has been 7 over the past 3 years. Wisconsin's worst year in that 14 year stretch was 7 wins. Also they had 10 double digit win seasons. I think there's a little bit more in play than just the Big Ten got rid of divisions. All due respect and what it goes to show you is one of the ultimate truths in college football and that is changing a program's identity is not that easy. Wisconsin had been a solid steady as you go program for a long time and we knew two things about him. They were going to run the ball and they weren't going to apologize for it. And they probably weren't going to win a national title. They were going to be very competitive. They may keep you from winning one, but they themselves weren't going to win one because the highest end potential that you need was not there. They weren't going to be offensively dynamic enough. They weren't going to be athletically dynamic enough, but man, they understood who they were and they made no bones about it. Okay, well, then Luke Fickle came along because they fired Paul Christ because they thought that good enough is not enough. And you can't fault people, you can't fault them for having been someplace long enough where they take for granted how good they got it. And they think good is the enemy of great. And so they go hire Luke Fickle, who was killing it at Cincinnati, and they try and be great. And he thought to be great, we're going to have to change the offensive identity of this program and we're going to have to therefore change the whole philosophy, this place. And it failed miserably. It failed. Now they find themselves in year four up there in the process of like a rebuild or an overhaul or a retooling. And all they're trying to do in the grand scheme of things is get back to what it always was, which is crazy. And it's the most unlikely of culprits because you would think Luke Fickle would be the last guy guilty of allowing that to happen on his watch. This is a guy that got Cincinnati to the playoffs when the playoff was only four teams deep and there's no asterisks next to it. There was no auto bid for the G5 because Cincy was G5 at that point. They straight up earned their way into a four team college football playoff to the point where even people like me looked at it and said, yeah, this is legit, Cincinnati belongs. If I was on the committee, I'd have Cincinnati in the playoff. That's how good they were. They were pumping out NFL draft picks there and it was a hard nosed, blue collar program. And you think about a guy who's the head coach and leader of that, the architect of that being plugged into Wisconsin. And it just makes sense. If anything you say, oh man, Wisconsin's about to be a problem. And instead it's become Wisconsin has a problem. It's just never saw that coming. Never saw it coming. Also, quarterback has been totally snake bitten for them. They had Tanner Mordecai the first year and it just wasn't anything special. But then Tyler Van Dyke came there and was hurt nearly immediately in year two, and then they had Billy Edwards there and he was hurt nearly immediately in year three. And so they really haven't even had a shot. And now it's Colton Joseph's turn, who is a transfer from Old Dominion, I believe. And if you look at recruiting for them. It's gone from 22 to 27 to 63. If you look at the portal rankings though, 12th 63, 15. So they've got a couple of top 15 portal classes. They had a ton of churn this past year and they just got to hope that they hit on a lot of these guys because I don't know what the magic number is that he needs there. I know they invested, I think I heard they invested a lot in trying to turn the roster over. Here's the thing. I think if Luke Fickle could apply all the knowledge he has now and go start over again at Wisconsin, he'd be fine. He'd be fine. He would not have made the offensive coordinator move he made. He wouldn't have tried to pivot nearly as hard as he did in terms of overall offensive and team philosophy, and they would be fine. But that's not the way it works. Lincoln Riley at USC is the same way. I don't know if Lincoln could take all the information at his disposal right now and take the USC job again. If he'd afford Alex Grinch the opportunity to come with him, maybe he would. My guess is that he'd think twice about it at least. But you can't go back in time. You can't go back in time. You got to make the right hires at the outset or you're going to be hitting the reset button in year three and asking fan bases in the nil era, when everyone thinks you can overturn something overnight to have patience with you and that's in very short supply. That's our show. We appreciate it so much. Big day tomorrow for a lot of us. Make sure you're following on the socials oshpate CFB More information as I can share it with you. I could share it now, but I'm gonna wait until tomorrow. Appreciate everyone for director Bradley producer Jesse I'm Josh Pate. Take have a great start to your week and God bless.
- [68:23]
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