Josh Pate’s College Football Show
Episode: CFB Program Rankings + CFP Expansion & Schedule Debate
Date: February 16, 2026 | Host: Josh Pate (iHeartPodcasts)
Overview
In this episode, Josh Pate delivers his much-anticipated annual College Football Program Rankings for 2026, providing insight into how programs (not just teams) measure up using a unique three-year rolling blend of criteria that includes talent acquisition, on-field results, resources, organizational stability, and a hint of predictive foresight. He also tackles the heated debates around College Football Playoff expansion — especially the rumors of a proposed 24-team format — and dives into spring QB battles, schedule strength analysis, and trends impacting the regular season’s future. The episode is packed with Pate’s signature sharp analysis and interactive responses to listener questions.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Defining the Program Rankings
[05:35–12:30]
- Josh’s Methodology:
- Focuses on programs, not teams—meaning results, stability and structures over three years, not just recent wins.
- Criteria include:
- Talent acquisition (recruiting + transfer portal)
- On-field results (recent bias but three-year blend)
- Resource pool and organizational stability
- Staffing (coordinator changes, hiring quality)
- Predictive look at a program’s trajectory
- Example: Oregon and Ohio State both faced coordinator churns but handled them expertly, showing organizational resilience.
“We want to zoom in on, for example, how good are you at talent acquisition over the past several years? … I want to know how good your resource pool is. You broke — in other words, we don’t—there’s no room for ‘poor’ in the top 10, top 12 of the program rankings.”
—Josh Pate [07:49]
2. 2026 College Football Program Top 10 Rankings
[12:30–22:50]
Full Top 10 Breakdown:
- Ohio State
- 37-6 over the past 3 years, national title mixed in
- Top-5 recruiting and portal effectiveness, coordinators replaced at high level
- Supreme organizational structure
- Georgia
- 36-6, back-to-back SEC titles, top national recruiter
- “If we did a head coaching draft and I had first pick, I’d probably go Kirby Smart.” [10:49]
- Indiana
- The outlier — not top 10 last year; back-to-back playoff appearances, Big Ten and national titles, elite coordinator trio
- Surged in talent acquisition and resources; “not a one-hit wonder”
- Oregon
- 38-4, back-to-back playoffs, Big Ten title two years ago, elite recruiting
- Navigated offensive staff churn with “blind trust” in the process
- Texas
- 35-8, CFP appearances, top recruiter
- Potential upside; “you could argue their best is still ahead of them”
- Notre Dame
- 34-7, national title berth, leveled up recruiting and elite culture
- Alabama
- 32-10, playoff berths, #2 recruiting, weathered Saban-DeBoer transition
- Miami
- Rolling 3-year record improvement, near-national-title win, #1 recruiter in conference, staff upgrades
- Texas A&M
- Mirrors Miami’s trend, 7 to 8 to 11 wins, elite portal activity, Mike Elko evaluated as a program edge
- Michigan
- National title, 2-1 vs. Ohio State, top-15 recruiter, significant coaching upgrade
Memorable Quotes:
“They got beat pretty soundly in the playoffs… now what did they do as the follow up act? They went and won the Big Ten. They went to the playoff again. They won the national championship. They steamrolled folks…”
—Josh on Indiana [13:54]
“Being fourth in the country means being third in the Big Ten right now in the program rankings. So I mean, for a show that reeks of SEC bias—I don’t see it in the program rankings at least.”
—Josh on Oregon & conference strength [15:35]
“If you just hate Oregon and say Oregon’s overrated... What should they be rated? Who should be above them?”
—Josh on Top 10 critiques [21:38]
3. College Football Playoff Expansion Debate
[25:57–34:20]
- Topic: Recent internal Big Ten proposal for a 24-team playoff (per Pete Thamel at ESPN)
- Josh’s Take:
- Firmly against; sees it as essentially a bad-faith negotiation tactic.
- Warns about "moving the goalposts"—proposals intentionally float even more extreme versions (e.g., even suggested a 28-team playoff last year) so fans/viewers will accept the merely "bad" 16 or 24-team version.
- Points out the core motivator isn’t fans, but administrative resume-padding and revenue growth.
- Predicts schools/coaches/ADs support expansion because it “makes their own job easier and makes their Wikipedia page look better,” but degrades regular season urgency and competition.
“How do you get a bad idea across the finish line to people who hate the bad idea? And the answer is: give them an infinitely worse idea.”
—Josh, on expansion proposals [28:10]
“Only an idiot falls for that. But then again, most people who float these kind of proposals out there think you are an idiot.”
—Josh, on administrators’ motivations [34:01]
- Alternative Solution:
- Centralized media rights (single, NFL-style package) would do more to address college football’s financial woes than constant playoff expansion.
4. Regular Season Scheduling & Strength of Schedule Debate
[39:07–48:53]
- Bama-Ohio State Series Cancellations:
- Not surprising given the move to nine conference games; scheduling heavyweight OOC matchups is increasingly impractical.
- Playoff Committee Critique:
- Josh argues the playoff selection process should better account for “strength of schedule” and use more predictive/analytical tools (like Vegas metrics), not just win-loss records.
- Using Texas as a 2025 example: played Ohio State Week 1 and lost, ultimately costing them a playoff berth even though their schedule was far harder than others.
- Quote:
“In college football, you are NOT what your record says you are. You are merely in college football. But that’s kind of the way people think.”
—Josh Pate [42:47]
-
Division Among Fans & Admins:
- SEC went to nine league games without guarantees from the committee on proper schedule weighting, causing internal frustration.
- “If Texas had replaced Ohio State with, say, Arkansas State, kept their other two losses—they’d have made the playoff.”
-
On Athletic Directors’ Motivations:
“I personally, selfishly want [marquee OOC matchups]. The question is, is that how I’d operate if I were an athletic director? I don’t know that I would.” [45:42]
5. Spring Football: Quarterback Battles to Watch
[52:52–59:34]
-
Alabama:
- Keelon Russell vs. Austin Mack: “It is still my belief Keelon Russell will win that job, but Austin Mack’s a really, really good player too.”
-
Clemson:
- Chris Vezina is “the guy to beat” after Klubnik moves on; new OC Chad Morris
-
Tennessee:
- Joey Aguilar’s eligibility situation could tip battle toward George McIntyre or Faison Brandon
-
Nebraska:
- “The graphics went out and the announcement went out and then all of a sudden the breaking news went out: no, he’s not…Mistaken transfer announcements, now Anthony Calandria is the likely starter.”
-
Duke:
- Portal losses leave them thin; transfer Walker Eget (San Jose State) likely needs waiver
-
Transfer Portal Insights:
- Coaches and players are planning post-spring moves, working around NCAA transfer regulations via judge shopping and temporary restraining orders.
"[On the transfer portal] There are many people out there, namely players and coaches, who do not think that the NCAA's transfer portal window rule is worth the paper that it’s written on."
—Josh Pate [58:05]
6. Schedule Softness/Ease by Conference
[59:34–1:05:24]
- Notre Dame:
- Softest schedule in a long time; “one team in the top 20 of playoff odds — Miami, and that's at home in November.”
- “If they lose two games, they're out. … But I have Notre Dame #1 in my preseason poll and I don’t think they're going to lose two.”
- Other “Easiest Schedules” (one per conference):
- Big Ten: Penn State
- SEC: Vanderbilt (“Big out of conference game is NC State at home.”)
- ACC: NC State
- Big 12: Texas Tech (because they "can't play themselves" and don’t play BYU; “cutting edge analysis right there.”)
7. Listener Q&A Highlights & Cultural Touches
[1:05:24–1:18:00]
- On South Carolina & Coaching Ups/Downs:
- Responds with nuance to a fan lamenting Shane Beamer’s struggles.
- “Everyone now says, ‘if Indiana can do it, why can’t we?’ What Indiana did should be instructive. They found program edges. That’s what you have to do.”
- Broyles Award Weekend:
- Recap of attending the assistant-coach honor in Hot Springs, AR.
- Anecdote: Indiana’s Brian Haynes mentions "the clown nose" to Josh, referencing Josh having to wear a clown nose after being spectacularly wrong about Indiana’s 2025 season.
“I was fantastically wrong on Indiana this past year, too often. So, I had to put on the clown nose after they won the national championship, which I picked against them to do.”
—Josh Pate [1:14:52]
- On Mike Bobo (Georgia OC):
- “Mike Bobo had a good weekend, man. … Racehorse aficionado Mike Bobo, dude was on fire.”
8. Oregon Mood Tracker
[1:16:40–1:19:38]
- Theme: “Just do it… now.”
- Oregon has the third-best win % nationally (“10, 10, 12, 13, and 13 wins the last five years”) but keeps hitting a wall in the playoffs (blowout losses to Ohio State, Indiana).
- Mood is not ungrateful, but fans are ready to finally break through: “Whatever it takes, just do it.”
“It may not be right, but it’s reality that you start to take it for granted. You can afford to do that as a fan. Dan Lanning can’t afford to do that… You just want to get all the way there.”
—Josh Pate [1:18:50]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On administrators padding resumes:
“It’s a pile of crap that got dropped in everyone’s lap… Only an idiot falls for that. But then again, most people who float these kind of proposals out there think you are an idiot.”
—[34:01] -
On Indiana’s resurgence:
“Everything about what they have done is extreme… so yeah, we have to have rules around here, but we have to make room for an outlier that kind of comes in and just challenges everything about your college football worldview.”
—[13:16] -
On why programs succeed:
“They found program edges… That’s the lesson people should be learning from Indiana right now — it’s not, ‘let’s go get a bunch of 23-year-olds’, it’s ‘let’s define our edges.’”
—[1:09:42]
Episode Structure with Timestamps
- [05:35–22:50] Annual College Football Program Rankings (Top 10, criteria, methodology)
- [25:57–34:20] College Football Playoff Expansion Debate
- [39:07–48:53] Schedule Strength, Committee Flaws, Marquee Game Cancellations
- [52:52–59:34] Spring Practice QB Battles (Alabama, Clemson, Tennessee, Nebraska, Duke), Transfer Portal Trends
- [59:34–1:05:24] Easiest Schedules by Conference
- [1:05:24–1:14:52] Listener Q&A: South Carolina’s “edges”, Broyles Award & Clown Nose Story
- [1:16:40–1:19:38] Oregon Mood Tracker
Tone and Takeaway
Josh strikes a balance between tongue-in-cheek, candid, and constructive throughout the discussion. He’s direct about the flaws in playoff expansion logic, fiercely analytical about his program rankings, and empathetic to fans’ frustrations and hopes. The episode is heavy on insight, with several “teachable moments” for both die-hard fans and casuals, and leaves listeners with a powerful sense of what truly separates great programs from merely good teams.