Podcast Summary: Josh Pate’s College Football Show

Episode: CFB Win Totals Released + Spring Intel & Dan Lanning Truth
Date: March 16, 2026
Host: Josh Pate, iHeartPodcasts

Episode Overview

This packed episode of Late Kick with Josh Pate digs into the just-released college football win totals for 2026, offering Josh’s early reactions and betting leans for SEC and Big Ten teams. He provides “spring intel” from major programs across the country, breaks down fanbase expectations, and offers a frank assessment of which coaches and programs are “on the clock” this season. The “Truth Teller” segment focuses on Dan Lanning’s status among elite coaches. The tone is passionate, direct, and heavily informed by insider whispers and deep statistical analysis.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Spring Intel Across College Football Program Campuses

(00:02 – 18:25)

Ohio State:

• Despite losing key defensive players (Caden McDonald and others), Josh is bullish because of deep talent and promising Alabama transfers (James Smith, Quay Russo).
• Mention of freshman Edric Houston expected to play a major role.
• Quote: “Legend Bay continues to be a name that we hear...comparing him to Curtis Samuel…37 different roles offensively.” (07:10)

Florida State:

• 2025’s record (5-7) belies solid stats: 6th in total offense, 28th in defense—but 105th in turnover margin, which doomed them.
• Legitimate QB competition: Ashton Daniels (favored) v. Kevin Sperry.
• WR core concern: Deuce Robinson put up 1,000+ yards, but WR 2-4 combined for less than him. Portal-reliant for OL replacement.
• Quote: “While Deuce Robinson did put up just over a thousand yards receiving last year, wide receiver 2, 3 and 4 combined for less yards than Deuce Robinson had.” (10:05)

USC:

• Huge praise for physical transformation after a S&C overhaul.
• #1 recruiting class, several freshmen projected as instant contributors (Luke Waffle, Terrell Anderson, Trent Mosley).
• Cautious optimism: WR depth is a concern; trust in Lincoln Riley’s offensive prowess to reload.
• Quote: “We have been told this team will look better physically than any team they've had since Pete Carroll was there.” (12:05)

Clemson:

• Chad Morris returns as OC after Garrett Riley’s tenure fizzled.
• Dabo Swinney embracing transfer portal more; focus on upgrading defensive secondary speed.
• Insta-tempo offense, but early growing pains, especially with new QB Chris Fazina and fresh WRs.
• Key injury: Transfer DT Courtney Kelly out for a while.
• Quote (Dabo Swinney): “It was fun to learn something different and all that, but it's like being back in America after living in Spain for three years. I'm back to living in Pelham, Alabama.” (14:17)

Nebraska:

• Last season’s QB instability with Dylan Raiola and Kenny Minchi gone; Anthony Calandria (UNLV transfer) gets the nod.
• Josh likes the odds: “whomst’d have seen this coming” vibe; expects significant offensive improvement.
• UCLA WR transfer Quasi Gilmer and SD State LB Owen Chambliss highlighted.
• Quote: “I am very convinced that they will improve their offensive numbers this year specifically cause of what that kid can do off script.” (16:55)

2. Early 2026 Win Totals Analysis & Betting Leans

(18:30 – 43:00)

SEC:

• 13 teams with win totals between 6.5 and 9.5—a compressed “Big 12-like” middle class.
• No team over 9.5 wins, reflecting SEC’s “parity” era.
• Josh’s Leans:
  • LSU under 9.5 (“10-2 feels too rich”);
  • South Carolina under 6.5 (schedule too daunting for 7 wins);
  • Oklahoma over 6.5 (moved to 7.5 during the show; defense floor and returning QB);
  • Georgia over 9.5 (talent & schedule favor big year);
  • Ole Miss over 7.5, but if number moves could see under at 8.5;
  • Alabama slight lean over 8.5—can lose toughest three and still hit it;
  • Texas at 9.5 is a true “are they elite or not” scenario.

Quote: “Georgia’s at nine and a half. This number’s too low…The roster continuity, the staff continuity, it’s Georgia. Just that should be its own bullet point.” (32:44)

Big Ten:

• Top-heavy: Indiana & Oregon (10.5), Ohio State (9.5 but harder schedule).
• Seven teams with totals at 5.5 or lower—Big Ten’s bottom group is “grotesque” compared to SEC.
• Josh’s Leans:
  • Penn State over 9.5 (new staff, reloaded roster, favorable early schedule);
  • Illinois slight under 7.5 (defensive losses, tough draws with OSU and Oregon);
  • Nebraska over 6.5 (“I am now fearlessly and boldly and proactively taking Nebraska over…”);
  • Wisconsin over 6.5 (no OSU, Oregon, Indiana, or Michigan; schedule offers a runway for Luke Fickell to deliver).

Quote: “Luke Fickle is no different...You’re telling me that I can’t get seven wins this year? It’s Wisconsin, seven wins. Yeah, I can get it.” (42:40)

3. “On the Clock” Teams & Coaches: Must-Win Years

(49:48 – 62:00)

• Texas: All the talent, few excuses. Sarkisian “has to be in the national title picture when the national championship happens” (50:35).
• Oregon: Dan Lanning, despite job security, now gets judged on playoff wins: “We know you can win a ton of games. Can you show us that you can win in the playoffs?” (51:39)
• Florida State: Mike Norvell out of equity after 2-10 and 5-7; “final stand” moment.
• USC: Lincoln Riley expected to convert elite recruiting and portal activity into a playoff bid.
• Baylor: Dave Aranda surprisingly retained after AD firing; must keep up with a rapidly improving Big 12.
• Wisconsin: Luke Fickell now judged on results, program expectations elevated by heavy portal use but no results so far.
• Quote: “If they wanted a guy to get over and let Bama and Georgia and Texas by, they would have just kept Brian Kelly there. They’re telling you they’re better than that and you better be better than that.” — On LSU’s expectations for Lane Kiffin (71:47)

4. The Truth About Dan Lanning

(62:00 – 68:14)

• Josh fires back at “can’t win the big one” critics, arguing Lanning is “unequivocally one of the top head coaches in college football” (62:16) despite not yet winning a national title.
• Oregon’s record: double-digit wins every year; wins over PSU, UM, OSU; top-10 CFP finishes; dealt with OC turnover without missing a beat; recruiting and portal rankings elite.
• Cites Saban/Kirby/Day as coaches once doubted for “can’t win the big one”; Lanning’s youth (only 39!) and track record mean it’s only a matter of time.
• Quote: “There is a big difference in cannot versus have not.” (65:50)

5. Fanbases That “Deserve Better”

(43:00 – 49:48)

• Arkansas: Passionate fans, grueling SEC run (14-52 conf. last 8 years), last 10-win season was 2011.
• Virginia Tech: Once a feared Thursday night team, not relevant in over a decade.
• West Virginia: Was a BCS staple, not ranked at any point in top 25 for the last seven years.
• Nebraska: Last dominant run in the 1990s; no CFP ranking since 2016, fan hunger for resurgence palpable.

Quote: “If you’re 45, you’ve lived through a dominant era...and your 19-year-old son laughs when you talk about it. It’s a slap in the face.” (48:18)

6. Mood Tracker: LSU’s Fast Lane Mentality

(68:59 – 74:45)

• LSU and Lane Kiffin: The “fast lane” expectation.
  • Fans’ patience for “getting out of the way” is zero.
  • “Not only do we have all that going for us, Nick Saban’s gone…Nothing's holding LSU back but LSU. That’s how you feel, rightfully so.” (70:25)
• If Kiffin isn't willing and able to continually lead, he won't survive; “you better be leading the pack, not watching the pack go by you.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Josh on Spring Ball: “Is why God invented spring football.” (11:12)
• Dabo Swinney: “It was fun to learn something different...I'm back to living in Pelham, Alabama.” (14:17)
• On Nebraska’s annual hope: “Starting to get that itch, Jesse. The Nebraska itch. We’ve gotten it the last two years…keep betting it and eventually it will hit.” (17:48)
• On Arkansas fans: “They just haven't been good enough. Their last double digit win season, does anyone want to GUESS it was 2011…Arkansas in conference play the last eight years, 14 and 52.” (44:21)
• On Dan Lanning: “His great crime at Oregon so far is basically losing to the team that’s either going to be in the national title game or win the national title.” (63:19)
• On coaching perception: “There is a big difference in cannot versus have not.” (65:50)
• On LSU mood: “When LSU is right, it is without equal in college football. And history suggests that there's a lot of validity to that.” (72:06)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Spring Intel — Ohio State, Florida State, USC, Clemson, Nebraska: 00:02 – 18:25
• SEC Win Totals & Analysis: 18:30 – 43:00
• Big Ten Win Totals & Analysis: 43:00 – 49:48
• Fanbases That Deserve Better: 43:00 – 49:48
• Coaches/Teams on “The Clock”: 49:48 – 62:00
• Truth Teller on Dan Lanning: 62:00 – 68:14
• LSU Mood Tracker: 68:59 – 74:45

Overall Tone & Utility

Josh Pate’s approach is authoritative but conversational, with a grin behind the microphone, always combining fan-centric humor with data-driven sharpness. This episode is ideal for college football fans itching for early season edges, context on major programs’ trajectories, and a reality check on “championship or bust” talking points.

Bottom Line:
Early win totals, deep program insights, and straight talk about coaching pressure—plus signature rants on fanbases, coaches, and the emotional reality of college football.