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- [00:00]
Josh Pate
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Public Investing Sponsor
Guaranteed Human support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com Disclosures
- [01:07]
Josh Pate (continued commentary and analysis)
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Josh Pate
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Josh Pate (continued commentary and analysis)
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Really disappoints me, Jesse, that we we said on Sunday night show we were going to have a Tuesday night show and then people saw that we were in Austin this morning and they they just fig. You can't do a Tuesday night show if you're in Austin Tuesday morning. The blank you can. As Meemaw would say, here we are, we're jam packed. We're live and high atop a Lovely Downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Nice to land in sunny 80 degree weather. Cause buddy, that's not what Austin looked like this morning. Since that time of decade it rained out there. Tuesday, April 21st, the year of our Lord 2026. Abnormally jam packed show here. Why? Well, they're talking about expanding the College Football Playoff. You know who hashtag they are and we will discuss that. We've got a brand new Post Spring Top 25 from our friends over at ESPN. Some say we're bought and paid for by ESPN. That's a lie. But we will, we will react to a top 25 if they put it out. But what are we going to put out? Immunity. We're going to put out our own strength of schedule rankings tonight. We have waited and waited and waited and then Bill Connolly beat us by like six hours. But we're going to put our own strength of schedule rankings out tonight. It's going to upset a lot of you as the truth often does this time of year. But this is it's truth season and we will try and dish a fair amount of it tonight. Not only that, but I'll readvocate for why I think that kind of logic belongs in the College Football Playoff selection process. All that plus I'll give you some behind the scenes News, Nuggets, Scoop, etc. From our trip to Texas earlier today. But they're watching us in Elk Grove, California and Columbus, Ohio, and Abilene, Texas, and Annapolis, Maryland. Thank you. Wherever you are, make sure you are subscribed to the channel. And if you are, thank you. And if you think you are, make sure that you are because it costs you nothing. But it really, really helps us. Thank you so much. All right, let's dive in. We've been waiting to do this every year. We do our own strength of schedule internally, preseason and then we adjust it on the fly. It's very fluid as the season goes on. And Pate State officials did take notice today that Bill Connolly released the S and P strength of schedule in his own way. And we took it personal. It became personal at that point. For us. So we're releasing our own tonight. I am a big believer this logic should be used in the playoff selection process. I have always said there is a place for Vegas Odds making style rankings to be incorporated into the playoff selection process and into the playoff rankings. Now, what I did not just say is that college football rankings should be decided by your record against the spread. In no way am I saying that. Throw that in the garbage. That's trash logic. What I am saying is that your strength of schedule in college football is a whole lot more than your opponent's cumulative win and loss record. Because in college football, unlike the NFL, there is massive disparity in strength of schedule and in strength of conference schedule and so on and so forth. And so I've always believed that in order to determine how difficult the schedule I've played is, I would much rather have at my Disposal by Week 12 an odds maker's perspective on it than just pulling up your win and loss records. Because I think there's a lot more logic behind that and therefore we like to keep track of it internally. Now, I'll tell you a lot of how I think about this in a second, but let me show you. Fresh off the presses. I think the paper, Jesse yeah, the paper's still hot, so it's fresh off the presses. Here's a look, according to our internal models, at Our preseason top 10 toughest strength of schedules in the country. Texas, we think, plays the toughest schedule in the country this year, unless something changes over the summer. And we all know how wildly things fluctuate in the summer. It's a joke. Texas is probably playing the toughest schedule in the country this year. Kentucky and Arkansas right behind them. A and M's there, Ole Miss is there. We think the top five toughest schedules in the country are all from the SEC. We think Ohio State has number six, Oklahoma seven, Mississippi State eight, Michigan nine, South Carolina, 10. So eight of the toughest 10 schedules in the country are from the SEC, Oklahoma or Ohio State and Michigan, rather, are two big 10 inclusions there. This is no mystery if you pay any attention to college football. And I want to quickly get to the bottom 10 before I come back and address all this, because I know what a lot of people are going to say about this, the bottom 10 or in the power four, the easiest schedules in the country this year in order Brigham Young, Duke, SMU, Houston, Notre Dame, Utah, NC State, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Virginia. So I'll just let that simmer. I'll let that BAKE for a second, let's yell at each other. I know you guys and girls, I know a lot of you are upset at the mere suggestion that the entirety of the top 10 is mostly one conference, but totally two conferences. And Jesse, I can't remember off the top of my head, I think if we expanded it to the top 15, it would still be all two conferences. Maybe you could even go 20 deep. Like that's kind of the way it looks because disproportionately the balance of power in college football has been tilted toward two conferences. I, for the record, hate it, but yet I can't look at the computer and get mad when it tells us the truth on such things. So travel matters in this, schedule dynamics matter in this. And let me just kind of stop for a second and tell you what I'm trying to explain. If you, Bradley, do me a favor, throw the top 10 up again. So if you look at these top 10 toughest schedules in the country this year, in our opinion, These are the 10 toughest schedules in the country this year. And that's based on criteria that we select as best. We find a way to define how tough your path is going to be any given year. So what do we care about? Well, we care about travel. Yes, that's involved here. How tough is your travel? Certain schedule dynamics? Do you got a bunch of back to back road games? Do a bunch of your opponents have bye weeks before you do? We bake that in. That's not the crux of it, but we bake that in. But really, when we're trying to determine your overall strength of schedule, it comes down to the teams you play and how good they are. Now, any given Saturday, what that involves for me is what are the talent rosters like. Texas, we think, has the toughest schedule in the country this year. So they go to Florida. They lose last year. Florida as a team was not that good last year. Florida on any given Saturday had a lot of really, really good players on the field that you don't get credit for beating if you beat them because their team's record ends up being bad at the end of the year. So I'm not even here to debate that because you get a ton of bad faith logic involved there. What we try and do, the best way I think you can define strength of schedule is to look at the talent rosters of the teams you're going to play. What that does not mean is that the talent rosters, top to bottom, are completely indicative of how good those teams are going to Be nobody possesses that kind of formula. But in the absence of that kind of formula, which would be fortune telling, basically in the absence of God handing us perfect rankings and perfect predictions, we have to kind of try and figure it out ourselves. So the reason that the top 10 strength of schedules are largely stacked with the SEC and a couple of Big Ten and the top 15 looks the same way is there was no SEC team that we had from a talent roster perspective coming out of spring that was below tier four and that's just accumulating talent. Basically. The Big Ten has half a dozen teams below tier four. So a couple of things being true there. Oregon may be better than any SEC team. Ditto for Ohio State, maybe ditto for Indiana for all we know. But eventually you're going to get to the bottom of the Big Ten. And the bottom of the Big Ten from an overall quality perspective, from an overall difficulty of challenge perspective, when you play them on a given Saturday is well below even that of Kentucky or Mississippi State. Now you can argue how good you think those teams records are going to be. I'm talking about how tough it is to play them on a given Saturday. All we can go on is talent acquisition. That's all we can go on. To give you an idea, we went and looked at rivals earlier today. Kentucky over the last four years has been the 14th best recruiting program in the SEC. They're right down there near the bottom of the SEC. They would be number eight in the Big Ten, Mississippi State. Jesse, didn't we look at them being like fifth or sixth? They'd be fifth over the past four years enrolling average recruiting ranking in the Big Ten. Certainly Mississippi State wouldn't be the fifth best team in the Big Ten in all likelihood. All I'm trying to give you is a comparative look at the talent acquisition mechanisms between respective programs. That's why at the end of the year you're going to get a little more credit in our model. If you went and you played Mississippi State, that any given year could have a future NFL quarterback on their hands. You know, maybe like this year or you go play Kentucky, ditto, then maybe go in and play in Rutgers or a Northwestern. So with that in mind, what does this say? Well, what it does and doesn't say is very important. So our strength of schedule and you're going to hear me mention this a whole lot as the summer progresses and as we get closer to the start of the season. It's not a ranking of teams at all. It is not an indicator of which league the eventual national champ will come from the ACC is dog water in terms of top to bottom strength of schedules compared to the Big Ten of the sec. Well, that doesn't matter. If Miami wins the national title, they win the national title. But that's not what we're talking about here. It isn't meant to be static either. Like one of the. Anytime we talk about strength of schedule, I've noticed when I look in the comments, a lot of people say, well, there's the SEC getting the benefit of the doubt before games have even been played. No, it's the SEC getting the respect we think the top to bottom strength of the league deserves before the games are played. But then once the games start playing, we start changing this strength of schedule mechanism. And you know, unlike an AP voter or something like that, we start from scratch every week. Like, you don't just randomly start number two and perform terribly, but it takes half a dozen weeks of terrible performance for us to drop you out of the top 25 or anything like that. That's not the way we work in house. But we have to go on what we have to go on in the spring. This also is the intersection of my yearly internal battle, because in my head and in my heart and in my soul, I want college football to be made up territorially. Word. Yeah, I think so. And I want the entire country to matter. And in my perfect world, the Southwest Conference still exists, and especially the PAC 10, not 12, the PAC 10 still exists, and there is representation of legitimate power. College football Conference conference says across the entire sport, across the entire country, that is not the way it looks right now, but I want it to look that way. At the same time, there's another voice over on the other shoulder that says, well, you got to call balls and strikes as you see him. You got to. You got to call it the way it is. And then we get to the end of the year, and realistically, if we just. If we just judged the playoff field strictly on the best teams, if we really just wanted to put the best teams in the field, we'd just load it up with Big Ten and SEC teams. That's all it would be. Now you may say, well, that's what it is right now. No, it could be a lot worse than it is right now. Right now we kind of have to turn somewhat of a blind eye towards the truth. The truth in this sport right now is that it's probably tougher to go 93 playing the schedule Texas plays than it is to go 12 and oh, playing the slate that Virginia is going to play this year, that's the truth of it. It is certainly harder to go 10 and two against a and M schedule than it is to go 12 and oh against Kansas State schedule. That's the reality of it and I know that deep down. But I get to the end of the year and I still want to have decent representation from the entire country in the playoffs. So that's the great internal battle that I fight. People actually think the opposite about me. No, no, no. If I, if I told the truth at the end of the year, it would be even more infuriating than it actually does sound at the end of the year. So there you go. Strength of schedule rankings are out. Do with that what you will. That was not the breaking news today though. No, no, no, no, no. I hold in my hand not Ross Dellinger, but rather a report from Ross Dellinger and you are not going to believe it. Quote from Ross Dellinger. A White House committee is suddenly, suddenly taking an interest in the College Football Playoff and believes the postseason should expand to 24 teams. Gasp. My word, not Ross's. He continues this week here in Dallas. Expansion discussions are expected to reignite. Quote Anonymous quote Here there is a coalescing around 24. Well, I know, I'm shocked. And I assume everyone else is. You know, what do you do when you screw something up? You just run to the atm, what do you do when you completely toss your financial situation in the gutter? You take your parents credit card and you head to the atm. In college football we have an atm, it's called the playoff. And when they screw up, they don't get fired. The same people who screwed up the sport, not over the past two or three years, but over the past two or three decades, they just get to run to the atm, that is the CFP and expand it and that'll bail us out. Mind you, there was nothing in any of this, nor is there ever anything in any of this about rectifying the problem. No, the problem is the problem. We'll just generate a way to make more cash. We'll revenue our way out of. It always works. History shows us that that is a very, very sound approach to poor decision making. So it's getting pretty clear. Something's getting pretty clear. If it's not already to you, it should be getting pretty clear. And if you go and read Ross Dellinger's report, you'll see what I mean. Greg Sankey and the SEC are often painted as the devil. And I've got my Fair share of issues with the way they've approached a lot of this too. But it seems more and more like Greg Sankey and the SEC may be the only remaining entity standing between us and certain playoff expansion to 24 teams. And I will point you to this from Ross Dellinger's article. Quote. During last week's meeting, at least three of the four power conference commissioners and Notre Dame expressed outright support for, or at the very least an openness to deeply explore a 2014 proposal. Noticeably absent from the call was SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey. Sankey thus far has resisted expansion to 24 teams. There is a reason that I did not just say the SEC has resisted expansion to 24 teams because I hate to break it to you, but even in our own backyard down here in the South, a lot of these folks want to expand to 24 teams. Not the fans. Most fans see it for what it is, which is insane. A lot of the ads and a lot of the coaches want to expand to 24 teams. And the reason why is because they feel like they were lied to. And there are a lot of power brokers outside the SEC that know that. And this is the chess game right now. The chess game is people outside the SEC that want to expand this thing to 24. They think all they have to do is wait the SEC out. Well, you may think, well, what are you waiting out? Hasn't Greg Sankey made his stance clear? Yeah. Problem is, not everyone in his league is on board with that thinking. And I will direct you again to part two of our screenshots. We screenshot multiple things from this article and this is part two of it. Listen closely now. Imagine you're in the Big Ten and you want to expand to 24. And you're reading this. Frustrations continue to brew over the SEC's decision last year to move to a nine game conference schedule, a move that many within the conference assumed would result in playoff expansion. Now what they're talking about here is the SEC went to nine league games. The coaches and ADs were led to believe that, well, yeah, we're expanding to nine because the playoff's going to expand. So you guys don't have to be as worried about maybe a third loss every now and then, maybe even a fourth loss. If you play a tough schedule because the playoff's going to expand, you guys will be okay. Well, that hasn't happened yet. The article continues. Quote, the expectation of every AD in the SEC was that at some level the nine game schedule was going to be combined with at least a 16 team playoff field. That's Auburn AD John Cohen on the record, Ole Miss chancellor Glenn Boyce. He said, quote, I, I would have said no unquote if someone had told him expansion wasn't coming. They're not marching arm in arm in the SEC quite like they normally do with Greg Sankey because a lot of them are upset that the playoff hasn't expanded. Now, they may not have wanted expansion to 24, but they absolutely wanted expansion to 16. Or a lot of them are saying, we never would have agreed to expanding to a nine game league schedule had we known the playoff safety net wasn't going to get bigger. Now, if you know me well enough, you know I hate all this. But I'm not an SEC ad. I'm not an SEC head coach. I have argued face to face with multiple SEC head coaches about this, but I get their stance. It's all Kirby smart. Like, I hate the. I hate the points Kirby's making right now. Kirby's advocating for 24 teams. What's his reasoning? Fans want access to the playoff. It's playoff or bust. Well, this gives more fan bases more access. I hate all that. But I get why a head coach would say that. Frankly, that's why I could not care less about a head coach's opinion on playoff expansion. I barely care what the ads think about it because their best interest and, or the interest rather, that they're trying to serve is different than the one I'm trying to serve. I just care about the overall greater good of college football. But I'm not Kirby smart. So it's not my job to look out for my team. I kind of care about the sport as a whole. But do you see it now? Do you see, let's hit rewind. 10 years, six years, seven years, whatever. A lot of you have watched the show for a long time. A lot of you have argued with me back and forth until we're both blue in the face about this. But does it start to make a little more sense with each and every subsequent article like this that comes out why some of us pushed against initial playoff expansion so hard? Does it at least make a little more sense? I know a lot of you out there thought four wasn't enough and you wanted to go to six or eight. Well, we didn't go to six or eight. We went to 12. And many of you who wanted expansion, you looked at 12 and you said, man, that's, that's bigger than I thought it would be.
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- [23:00]
Josh Pate (continued commentary and analysis)
12 is better than 4. Many, many, many of you said that and I disagreed. But it wasn't the end of the world to me, logic wise. My problem was, very simply put, I knew why they expanded it. They didn't expand it for the same reasons you wanted it expanded. A lot of you wanted expansion because you really just thought this is what's best for college football. I of course disagreed with that. But if you really, really care about college football and we simply differ in opinion on how to accomplish that, that's okay. That's not the worst thing in the world. But these people are. And to you, the playoff is a tournament to crown a national champ. It's not that to these people, to these people, the playoff has never been a tournament to crown a national champ. It's been an ATM built to erase decades of screw ups and that's all it's ever been. Now you notice back when it was four and a lot of fans complained that that wasn't big enough. These people had no problem because it was convenient to their end goal, citing fan displeasure with their want to expand it. You used to hear that all the time, ads and commissioners and even network executives. Well, the fans are telling us in overwhelming numbers they want a bigger playoff. Do you notice? You notice when is the last time any of these articles cited anybody on record or anonymously as saying, oh, we're going to expand to 24 because that's what fans want? Of course they're not doing that because hardly any fans want it. Even playoff expansion supporters don't want 24 teams. Very, very few, a super minority of college football fans want 24 teams. But it was never about creating the best tournament to crown a national champion. That was all just a cover. It's always been a cover. It's a playoff sticker on the side of an ATM machine. My answer has always been and continues to be, I really wish that some people in this world would swallow their pride. I wish that they'd find a way to merge the SCORE act and the overhaul of the Sports Broadcasting Act. I would love to get the governance piece in place with collective bargaining. I would love to get the money reworked via a new media rights deal that has money, plenty enough revenue for us to circumvent the need to expand to 24 teams. And I mostly wish that we'd stop letting people who made the mess be responsible for the cleanup. I know that this is fairytale land and I'm wishing against hope, but that's where I wish we'd had. We'll see meetings continue we'll see. We expanded the Paint State store and that's okay. That's not hypocritical at all. There are way more items and as you know, the more items that we put in the store@patestatematerial.com the more valuable each of those items becomes. Because that's how it works. That's how I've been told it works. See, the more that you expand the playoff, the more valuable the regular season is because more people have access. So the more we expand this store, the more our viewers mean to us because more of them have access to this. Oh, you're shaking your head, Jesse. That makes no sense. Of course it doesn't, because it never makes sense. I would just humbly suggest if you want a T shirt, go check out paid statematerial.com
- [26:32]
Public Investing Sponsor
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- [27:34]
Josh Pate
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Josh Pate (continued commentary and analysis)
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Josh Pate (continued commentary and analysis)
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- [29:25]
Josh Pate (continued commentary and analysis)
There you go. Rankings. You say we have new rankings in our lap? Yes, we do. Bradley. Here's a good endpoint for you. I was flying back from Austin today. Got the alert. Hey, just in time for tonight's show. ESPN has dropped post spring updated, hot off the presses top 25 preseason rankings and I am prepared to speculate wildly. I am prepared to overreact here. What I'm not ready to do is release my own top 25 yet. I still want to marinate on some things. I still want to visit some programs, talk to some coaches and that's really just cover for we're not ready yet. But ESPN was and I'm going to react. Here they are up on your screen. If you're listening on podcast. I'm not going to take time to read all 25, but I will tell you Notre Dame's at number four. I think Notre Dame is low at number four. Multiple strengths of that team. I don't really know what the big weakness would be. Granted, none of the top five really have weaknesses. But I love Notre Dame at quarterback. I think I'll end up loving him at receiver. I know that this week's NFL draft is going to see two really good running backs head to the NFL. I don't think proper respect is being paid to how good the backfills at running back are going to be for Notre Dame. I don't expect a ton of drop off there. I expect that position group to still be a net strength, which just shows you how good they are. And they're hungry. Cause you know, according to a guy whose question we'll read later in the show, they haven't won a big game in his lifetime. I don't know if you've heard that Notre Dame hasn't won a big game in forever. I disagree, but whatever. So that stood out to me. Brigham Young at 12 this is going to sound really weird, but I think Brigham Young's a little too high at 12. Yet I have them circled as my biggest playoff sleeper because number one, I do like the team. I just don't think like quality for quality, shot for shot. They belong above an Oklahoma or like an Alabama per se or Michigan even. But when you look at them having a bottom 10 strength of schedule, when you look at them having a very, very high returning production rating, and when you look at just overall the identity of the program and the fact that Kalani Sataki could have left and yet he's still there, I really think they're going to gear up for a run this year. I don't know. Again, in just a static comparative world, Brigham Young quite stacks up to be a number 12. But you know, 18, 19, that's probably where I'd start him. Bama's at 16, Penn State's at 15. To me, having Penn State above Alabama at this point is just indicative that you're trying to project a little bit with your rankings, which is okay, I don't choose to do it that way. I just choose to do my rankings as here's where I think these teams are starting the season and I'll adjust as the season goes on. But if you're trying to sort of kind of predict how the season's going to go, Penn State plays a garbage schedule. Alabama, look, we think they play a soft schedule by SEC standards, but it's still one of the 15 toughest in the country this year. And so it makes all the sense in the world. You may think Penn State finishes better than Alabama, but if you're telling me if they played in week one, you choose Penn State to beat Alabama on a neutral field. That's a bridge a little too far for me. So I would say the same thing for Example about the fact that TCU's 23rd and a team like Florida is not ranked. And I'm not saying Florida just blocks top 10. I'm saying that if I were to put him on a neutral field to start the season, I'm not sure I'm picking TCU to, to beat Florida. Jaden Craig, though, whoever put these rankings together obviously has a lot of confidence because you guys probably know, man, didn't, didn't, didn't TCU lose their quarterback to Indiana? They did. Josh Hoover's gone. Jaden Craig stepped in. He transfers in from. Wait for it, wait for it. Harvard. And you know, the way college football is going now, it makes all the sense in the world that a Harvard quarterback would end up vaulting a random Big 12 team in the playoff contention. So maybe TCU's too low. For all I know, Lincoln Riley better hope this is wrong because these post spring rankings have usc at number 20 and that makes them good for number eight. I want to say, in the big ten. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Yeah, if USC is no better than Iowa or Washington, all due respect, this year Lincoln Riley's cooked. So I disagree with this. I would probably guess I'd have USC way closer to 10th than 20th to start the season. We're going to talk about USC more in the show later on. LSU is at 11. Is that LSU's entry point? How close to accurate is this, do you think? How close to accurate is it to predict LSU will be the 11th best team in the country when the season starts? If it's accurate, there are going to be LSU folks who think that's low. I disagree. I actually think it's a really, really good sign if you're already a borderline top 10 product by the time the season starts because of how new everything is, including the fact that you haven't really even gotten to see your quarterback a whole lot in spring. And so you got the whole rehab situation, not to mention everything's new down there. That one, I think will evolve. I think LSU as a team could, could evolve for the better as much from week one to week eight as any team in the country. I'm looking at Texas at five. I'm looking at Georgia number three. And it comes down to instinct versus logic here to me, because I think Texas is going to be a better team than Georgia this year. I think Texas will start the season as a better team than Georgia. However, my mind quickly instructs my heart to go back and look at the last three times they played And I was there two of the three times I believe I was there. I'm not, I'm not a fool. I haven't forgotten that. And so I even think if I were doing rankings, I'd probably put Georgia ahead of Texas just because benefit of the doubt, especially in rankings, means a lot there, means a whole lot. Now, luckily for Texas and most of these teams here, they'll play a strength of schedule to where any doubt that may or may not be cast upon them has a lot of chance to be erased. The other thing is Michigan's just floating here at 14. And if Michigan is that quality of team, if they're a top 10 to top 15 caliber team to start the year, okay, well, that's an entry point that I wonder how that one evolves as the season goes on. How much better can a Bryce Underwood get as the season goes on? Oklahoma at 13, same thing with John Mattier as the season goes on. But I look, I'm looking at the Big 12 there, and you've got like Utah in there and you got TCU and you got Houston. None of them are top 10 except for Texas Tech. Brigham Young's 12, though. Really? One, two, three. Jesse, do you count four Big 12 teams or five? Where am I? Where am I not looking? Who's five? Yeah. Yeah. If you got five Big 12 teams as top 25 caliber teams this year comparatively, that would mildly surprise me. Mildly surprised me. But I hope it's true. So I hope I'm wrong there and I hope this is accurate. You're watching us in Butler, Pennsylvania. Jackson, Mississippi, Portland, Oregon. Thank you guys so much. We now have a very, very ridiculous question comment to read live in front of God and everyone. A good, close friend of the program, CFB Memes legal name from Santa Cruz, California. He hit us up. He said, is Notre Dame a blue blood program? People were telling me yesterday they are, but I've never seen him win a big game. Let us all be reminded of Meemaw's one of several of Meemaw's golden rules. Smart people sometimes say casual things. Casual people rarely say smart things. We can only hope that close friend of the program, CFB Memes here is a smart person saying a casual thing, but it incited a panic around the office earlier today. And the panic was, I read that question. Notre Dame hasn't won a big game in his lifetime. I don't even remember the last time. And I'm thinking to myself, dude, this is not good. My memory must be failing me because I was certain it was Notre Dame that I saw beat Indiana and Georgia and Penn State in back to, back to back weeks just two years ago en route to playing for a national title. Jesse, by my count, Indiana, Georgia, Penn State, those are three of the last five national champs. Notre Dame beat them all in a row. None of those were big games. So I was freaked out because that can't be the case. So I must misremember. It must have not have been Notre Dame that played that stretch. And then we looked on the Internet and the world wide web said, yes indeed, it was Notre Dame that played that stretch. So what is happening with our close dear friend CFB memes? Cable wars come for him? Was there a blackout? Was there a carrier dispute? Did he miss the 2024 playoffs? Perhaps? Is Notre Dame a blue blood? Yes, of course they're a blue blood. That's an insane question. Yes, of course they're a blue blood. Now, everyone can have different theories or ways that they qualify. This here's a simple one. Can you tell the story of college football without Notre Dame? That's a big fat no. But that's not it. That's not it because army was a powerhouse in college football once upon a time. They're not a factor in the modern landscape, at least when it comes to deciding championships on the field. We love the troops, but the landscape of football has changed a little bit. So the next question could be, okay, well, have they been an A tier program in multiple generations? And Notre Dame certainly has. And so when we circle back around to this big game thing. Oh, they haven't won a big game. First off. Yes, they have. Yes, they have. In 2024 alone, just in the playoffs in a three or four week stretch, they beat Indiana and Georgia and Penn State, three of the last five national champs. So we just, we wad that up here. I'll do it right here. We'll wad that up. We'll, I don't know where the trash is. We'll throw that figuratively in the trash. Follow up, we've got to stop bastardizing the phrase or term, whatever it is, big game. Just say national championship. Just say they haven't won a national championship recently because that's got to be the only thing. You mean. There are several big games. Notre Dame's one. And if your argument is they're not a blue blood because they hadn't won a national title lately, well, I'm going to hit you back with yeah, but they've won 11 in their history and they played for one two years ago and they're going to be right in the mix again this year. And they've been in the mix. They played for one in 2012, didn't win it, but they've been in the mix. It's not like they've been off in the wilderness. And for a while, if you wanted to make this argument in a twisted sort of way, you could have said, well, yeah, yeah, yeah, Notre Dame was this, they were that. However, from this point going forward, they're a non factor. And you know what? For a little while, when it came to national championship contention, maybe you would have gotten me to buy into that. Maybe. But you can't even say that anymore. They've got the second best odds to win the whole thing this year. They just played for a national title two years ago, so they're in the mix right now. If anything, the sport of college football that looked like it was going away from them for so long, it's kind of come back to them a little bit. Not to mention they got one of the best coaches in the country up there. So yes, they're a blue blood. You can hate them if you want to, but don't just spout off nonsense. We got to be better. We got to be way better.
- [42:17]
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Josh Pate
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- [46:08]
Josh Pate (continued commentary and analysis)
Let's Talk about another blue blood here. Michael from Seattle, Washington, thoughts on the On3 article and Lincoln Riley saying USC has entered a championship window. Well, he's right. That's my thoughts on the on three article quoting Lincoln Riley as saying USC has entered a championship window. He's right. By that I mean I look at USC and I agree that this is the first year since Lincoln Riley's been there that I feel comfortable at least whispering their name in national championship conversations. I haven't done it before. I haven't even thought they're in the conversation. I have thought that it was next to impossible for them to win a national championship in his first several seasons there. This year it's merely not so likely that they would win it. But it's well within the range of outcomes if everything clicks for them. And I've never said that before, so I guess by the technical letter of the law, I agree with Lincoln Riley that they're entering a playoff window. Now let's address most people watching this right now. It's a scientific fact. Most people outside of USC dislike Lincoln Riley. He's just become a very polarizing guy. Whatever. Secondly, many, many, many to most of you have decided in your own heart Lincoln Riley will never win a national championship. Some of you decided that even when he was at Oklahoma. I'm not here to try and change your mind, but the question was to me. And so I do agree that they have just now entered into a window. I don't know how long the window's going to be. In fact, I think if he doesn't get the job done this year, he could be out after this year. So like I'm sitting here totally agreeing with Lincoln Riley but also saying you better, you better be intentional with your words and I'll remind you why in a second. But you could, you could issue a whole list of follow up questions to this. I'll do it right now. I'm telling you. Yeah, I do think it's accurate that Lincoln says they're entering a championship window this year, but I'd follow it up with it should never have taken this long. There's no excuse for it to have taken this long. I know they had a rebuild on their hands in the modern era of college football at USC or a list of about 10 other programs. You're never going to sell me that it takes over half a decade for a rebuild to happen. So he made poor decisions at the outset, staffing wise. He paid for them to his credit. He rectified them to USC'S credit. I would say enough to their credit, to the fan base's credit, they've kind of afforded him the length of rope to do that. Not every fan base would. So now's the time. And you may be listening and you may be down on USC and you're like, wait a second. So now they're entering a window to win a championship. What changed? Well, two things changed. Number one, the program identity changed, and that's really two years old now. Number two, the talent roster changed. They've never had a talent roster under Lincoln that is remotely comparable to this. This may be one of the 10 best rosters in the country, by the way. Like, there are some player personnel people I've talked to, not at usc, who really do think the roster USC puts on the field this year, top 10, top 12. Like, there's some folks who are really high now. Now, granted, these same folks are not necessarily a sold that USC will follow through on it, but that that remains to be seen for everybody any year. Point is, they hadn't even been in the ballpark until this year under him. But as sure as I agree with Lincoln Riley that, yes, they're entering a window where they theoretically compete for national championship, I would advise Lincoln Riley to remember Hugh Freeze because Hugh Freese last year was very outspoken at SEC media days about the fact that he believed it was totally fair for everyone to expect Auburn to compete for the SEC championship last year. Now, I appreciate that. I love when guys are honest. We call it the Bryant Haynes philosophy around here. Whether I agree with you or not, please just be honest, share your thoughts. We won't hold it against you, but the public will and your fan base will. Hugh Freeze came out and said you ought to expect us to play for the SEC title. Well, then you quickly dropped out of SEC title contention and they fired you midway through the season. Likewise, Lincoln Riley can talk about being in a window to win a national title this year. He should feel that way. I agree with him that those are the state of affairs out there. But all that means is if you pull at the finish line, pull up to the finish line rather with another 8 and 4. It's not good enough. And they're going to take action out there and it will be deserved. So hey, I'm sitting here as someone who hasn't sold my Lincoln Riley stock yet. I haven't sold my USC Lincoln Riley stock, so if anything, I'm pulling for him. But I do agree with him. So that answers the question. FanDuel has odds on that, you know, FanDuel has odds on a lot of things. In fact, if you go and peruse FanDuel right now, you'll find a whole lot of NFL draft props. Day after tomorrow, that thing goes down live in Pittsburgh. We'll be over on Buzzer, by the way, doing full draft casts on that Bzzr. For those unfamiliar, and you probably are because it's brand new. So Jesse's been lighting this stuff up. Producer Jesse's very big on NFL draft props. We've been sort of internalizing our own and waiting for fanduel to release them. Well, now, more and more by the hour, it seems FanDuel's putting out a lot of NFL draft props. Can you imagine telling people when they used to have the draft in like hotel ballrooms back in the day that there's going to come a day that not only do they shut down an entire major American city every year to host the draft, which is a three night event, but also they're going to be these things called online sports books that are going to be legal that you could live bet the draft on crazy, then tell them about the portal in Nil and really blow their minds. FanDuel is not involved with either of the latter two things I just mentioned, but they are involved with the NFL draft and you can go see what I'm talking about about over there or just about the NBA playoffs. I know I do. I don't. But I will take a look at a lot of this NFL draft stuff.
- [52:36]
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- [53:21]
Josh Pate (continued commentary and analysis)
Lastly, we were in Austin, Texas this morning talking to Steve Sarkeesian. But last night I made it a point, as I often do, to get to Texas a day early because anytime we're out there, that means you're Surrounded by some of the best restaurants in the country. And I've got to give immense credit to our new friends over at J. Carver's Chop House. Unbelievable. Two very, very close, dear friends of the program treated us to dinner last night. I would drop their names, but I don't know if they want their names dropped on air. You know whomst you are. And man, J. Carver's Chop House. I would just, I would give it a five star recommendation. We rarely give those out. It's a five chow I recommendation from us. And then you know what I did this morning, Jesse? We had to be over at Texas by 9. We had Sark at 11:30. But you always got time to catch up with Pate. State hall of Famer speaker series legend Mack Brown. We've done the speaker series for four years now. We have not had a higher rated and more complimented episode of the speaker series than the one we did with Mack Brown when he was at North Carolina. Took Savannah State over there and had breakfast, had a little coffee with Mack Brown this morning. Now, people have looked at this picture, Gabe Eichard chief among them, and called it out as Savannah State wearing very, very fancy headwear. That is not a hat. That just happens to be something in the lobby of the hotel that she lined up in perfect proportion with. So she's not wearing a hat. No one's wearing a hat there. Always love catching up with Mack Brown. In the words of Herman Boone, your Hall of Famer in my book. Also, Mack Brown's an actual hall of Famer. Right. So I don't really have to, I don't really have to just make him feel good or pump his tires there. So then we head over to the facility and hung out with Sark and hung out with a lot of the folks at Texas for the day. Well, the morning, the first part of the day, Steve Sarkeesian is always one of, if not the best sit downs we do any spring I look at retention numbers. So what I do is I look at how much of these sit downs you guys watch. On average, Steve Sarkeesian always finishes number one. By that, I just mean the average viewer watches a higher percentage of the Steve Sarkeesian sit down than anybody else we sit down with. And my theory on that is because he shares a whole lot. There's a lot of info, there's a lot of access that he gives through his answers, and he's really good at speaking outside of just Texas. So, like a Texas fan would be fascinated listening to the Texas head coach Sark Talks in a way that I think fascinates an Oregon State fan. As bitter as they may be about the current state of college football. He just, he really, really captivates. And so we're going to release the entire thing tomorrow morning. I rarely do this, but I did want to just give you guys a glimpse. If you never listen to the speaker series, I would encourage you to because this is not just a head coach we sit down with and we talk to about his team. We talk to him about, you know, things that are much bigger picture and I think they're of interest to a lot of college football fans. I'll just give you a small taste of what you'll get 30 plus minutes of when we release this tomorrow with Sark. And I don't want to just gloss over that about getting young players experience, even if it may in the very, very short term put you at a slight disadvantage in a moment. Now that's not something I know you're deciding on the fly. Like that's something where we're going into a game. We want to do this right. When the moment arrives though, it's a one possession game maybe how much do you have to fight your instinct as a competitor to say, well, I don't want to disadvantage us right now, no question.
- [57:05]
Steve Sarkeesian
You know, because we, you know, we have that meeting the day of the game, right? How we're going to play the players and talking about rep counts, we're talking about, you know, whether it's, you know, every third series, so and so is going to get in the game. And it always sounds good Saturday morning in the, in the hotel and everybody's, you know, clear minded and focused and to your point, inevitably you get into that drive and maybe the position coach is hesitant to put that player in. And as a head coach, I gotta remind them to play them or as the head coach, they've got him in the game. And I'm thinking to myself, we need to get so and so back in the game because they're in the red area now, we need to get this stop. And I think that's part of being fluid and that's part of making decisions in the moment that are in the best interest of the team, of what the team needs and not losing sight of that. But again, I think we all have those moments where you have a plan to play players and how you want to play the players and you got this young player and you want to get them 10 to 15 snaps in the game. And we show up Sunday morning and we're reviewing the ball game and you look up and that kid we were supposed to play 10 to 15 snaps didn't play well. That's when I start to feel bad like we didn't follow the plan. You're going to have games where that kid plays seven or eight plays. I get it. You're going to have games where maybe he plays 20 to 25. I get that too. But we should never neglect the plan because planning is done for a purpose. And then the ability to, you know, dive into the contingency plans along the way, I think is important, too.
- [58:38]
Josh Pate (continued commentary and analysis)
I don't know, man. I always love hearing him talk about the, I don't know, the psychological approach to the game, calling a game, mentally where you have to be, how you run a program. I just love listening to Steve Sarkeesian talk. Also made our way around the building today. Just talking to some people at Texas and it's so clear this is a circle season for them. They get it. This is Ohio State of two years ago. This is an all in sort of season. But that doesn't mean what it means for other places. Like there's some places where an all in season means, man, if we don't get it done this year, it's right back to 6 and 6 next year. It's not that kind of all in season. Okay. Texas is a place that's going to give themselves a shot to win every year. Ohio State is too. Georgia is too. So there are very few programs that you can describe that way. Texas is one of them. And I think the skill really is do you put yourself in position? Do you put yourself within reach of the title every year? You may never grab it. But if you put yourself within reach 10 times, you ran a really good program. However, within those 10 years, everybody understands there are going to be a few of them where we are within closer reach than the other years. This is the year, this is the year where Texas is the most within reach maybe of any year that they're going to be there. But at the very least out of the years they've been there so far. And at the same time, again, because you're walking around a place that it's not Georgia. They don't have two national champs in their championships in their recent rearview mirror. They didn't win it two years ago like Ohio State. They didn't do it. Indiana did last year. There are a lot of people out there who say, well, what have we really gotten for all this so far? We hadn't won the conference we hadn't won a national championship, what have we really won? That's not the most unfair logic in the world, which is why everything is tense shoulders. Everything is razor sharp attention to detail. Everything is, you know, like the flame on the end of your stick is about to die out in desperation mode. And it's really crazy when you're around a place that has that energy and that kind of talent roster because I am telling you, I think their twos could go 11 and one against several Power 4 schedules this year. Now, the one they're going to play is among the toughest in the country, so I don't think their Twos could do that against their schedule. But Texas always takes great care of us. We appreciate them so much. I guess next time we'll see them will be at media days. Maybe next time we see you will be Thursday night. Man, we're doing live draft cast for the NFL draft. Who knows how it's going to go. Jesse could be the greatest thing we've ever done. Someone could even downvote it. We don't encourage that behavior, but we're going to have fun with it. You can go over to buzzer right now. Bzzr.com Our profiles up there, all the NFL draft content that we've produced is over there. And so if you want to consume such things, that's where you want to go. I would like to go home and get a couple of hours of sleep. Goes no. Okay, well, I'm gonna try. For director Bradley for producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate. Take care. We'll see you Thursday night for the draft. Until then, God bless.
- [62:00]
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- [62:45]
Josh Pate
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Josh Pate (continued commentary and analysis)
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Josh Pate
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