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Podcast Host - Josh Pate (0:00)
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Josh Pate - Main Show Host (1:39)
Rare well Done offers help and hope to people across the country who live with the rare disease CIDP. Watch the latest episode now exclusively on rarewelldone.com. Yeah, I know it's been a while guys. I mean we can't have a show on Easter. We're not savages. So yeah, we took a week off but we really didn't because we loaded up the channel with speaker, series content and beyond. But we're back. We're jam packed. We're high atop a sun drenched downtown Nashville, Tennessee. It is Thursday. It is April 9th, the year of our Lord 2026. And you know what happened today? We had odds drop right in our lap. Not just to make the playoff. That would be fun, but to miss the playoff. So yes, if you are a particular hater of a particular team out there and you get really, really tired of only seeing odds to make the playoff, odds to win this and that and you think I'm kind of a more sadistic minded person. I want to bet on terrible things to happen. We have that. As of tonight, we have that. Ryan Day's got an idea. At least Ryan Day's saying some stuff to friend of the program even though he is in and of himself saying some weird things. Kevin Clark. And I'm going to address both of them on the show tonight. We have got someone asking me not about the loudest stadium we've ever been in, not about the most intimidating stadium we've ever been in. Just flat out, what's my favorite that we've ever been in. I've gone public with this before, but I'll go public with it at least once more. I'm not going to shy away from it either. And you will be happy to know it is the stadium of a team that we allegedly despise. We hate them. So we're going to swerve them, bro, tonight. All that plus some behind the scenes intel and whispers and scoop from our trip to Alabama last week. They're watching us in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Columbus, Ohio, Tempe, Arizona, Southerly, England. Jesse, are you familiar? No, no, not in the geography books. In rural Pennsylvania. Okay, well, they're watching us in England. We appreciate it. Subscribe to the channel. Whatever continent you're watching us on, just keep watching. And to keep it free, even though we all know it always will be, but especially to keep it free and to keep the lights on around here. Subscribe to the channel. We appreciate it. Okay, so everyone's sitting around right now and they're thinking it's April. Masters got the NFL draft around the corner. Frozen 4. Yeah, if you're into that sort of thing. So we weren't focused on any of that today, although we did have the Masters on in the background. Bradley, here's a good endpoint for you. FanDuel has provided us with odds to make the playoff and to miss the playoff. These are live right now. You can go look at them, you can bet them. You can do whatever your heart desires with them. But they are on the screen right now. And if you're listening on podcast, let me spoil the ending for you. Notre Dame has a really good shot to make the playoff this year. Texas Tech has a really good shot to make the playoff this year. Indiana Shocker, really good shot. Look at the number four team there because this is the first thing that jumped out to me. Miami's got really good odds to make the playoff. I'm going to tell you I'm not doing bold predictions yet. But on this April 9th. I think Miami will be better this year than they were last year. I don't know if that means they go as far as they do, but I feel really good about Miami. So it stands to reason that FanDuel agrees and Miami's odds to make the playoff are the fourth best in the country. They're minus 280 right now if you want to bet them to make the playoff. That's not what stood out to me. What stood out to me is look at the rest of the list. Where's the acc? It's non existent. I don't want to go as far as to say it's a one bid league certainty this year because it's not certain. Nothing certain. But there is a massive drop off between Miami and whoever our fine traders at FanDuel think is the next best team. And in the ACC that would be by the way, SMU at plus 4:30. So minus 280 to plus 430. Louisville behind them, Clemson behind them. You notice Jesse, I do that thing a lot of times where Bradley has the slider up that I can clearly see and yet I'm still looking at chicken scratch handwriting that I wrote hours ago and sometimes cannot read. But yeah. And then if you want to really, really get morbid, you go way, way, way, way, way down the list. And there's Florida State. Now it may sound like I'm singling out Florida State. I am. Because out of all the Cals and NC States and Dukes of the world, you have Florida State's mixed right in with them. Florida State was a national championship caliber team a couple of years ago. The rest of them weren't. And so the fall off has been historic. And Florida State earlier today was minus 20,000. They are to make the playoff. They're plus 1900 right now. We ran the numbers Jesse, earlier today when we were plugging it into the little machine. You wanted to just go bet 10 of your own hard earned American dollars in this economy on Florida State to make the playoff you'd make a fair amount of money. But today when we looked at the fact that they were minus 20,000 to miss the playoff. Yes, you can bet on that. You would need to bet $2,000 to win $10. So that's where we're starting things off. That's the starting line in Tallahassee this year. What about the sec? No teams in the top six. The overall odds? Bradley's showing you conference odds right here, which I'll get to in a second. But the overall odds to make the playoff. The SEC has none of the top six teams. Haters will say that means they've fallen off homers will say that just means that, well, maybe they'll say there's a bias against the sec. I think the realist mind will look at it and say, oh, probably just means the league's pretty compressed again this year. Now, again, we haven't played a game, so there's no way for us to really know, but we do have odds to go on. And the odds suggest that, yeah, there's no top six, there's no SEC representation in the top six. And then there's a little dot, dot, dot which I learned in my later years were called ellipsis. Yeah, I did not know that in middle school and high school. And then 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13 are all SEC teams. So we have a very, very compacted SEC this year, at least in the starting gate. On the odds board. What jumps out to me is not a team in the 7 to 13 range, though. I see Florida down there. Odds to make the playoff, Florida plus 380. Better odds than Missouri, shorter, a little bit longer odds than Tennessee. But Florida is like they are not distantly behind what you would call the lead pack. Now, the thing about this pack is you can't really see any separation. Georgia, Texas, LSU, A&M Bama, Ole Miss. There's not a tier, there's not a cliff like there is in the Big Ten, which I'll show you in a second. So you kind of keep going. Oklahoma, Tennessee, Florida. Then there's, I guess a fairly substantial gap. And then there's Missouri. Then there's another gap. Then there's Auburn, then there's another gap and there's South Carolina, but Florida stood out. And then I also, if you want to talk about how compressed the SEC is, at least in the fanduel odds, Florida has the 9th best odds out of the SEC teams, but their odds are better than SMU and Brigham Young. Those are the number two teams in the ACC in the Big 12, respectively. Just to give you a little bit of an idea there. Mississippi State's +3300 to make the playoff. There are six Big Ten teams with worse odds than that. So there are. There are multiple Big Ten teams with better odds than the highest SEC team. There are several more Big Ten teams with worse odds than the lowest SEC team compacted. Very, very compacted in the Big Ten. I think there is money to be made. Realistically, there's money to be made everywhere here. But in the Big Ten especially, there are very, very clear tiers. Again, this is at the outset of the season and then the season will play itself out. Indiana, best odds in the Big Ten, minus 330 to make the playoff. Oregon right behind a minus 270 to make the playoff. Ohio State third in line, very, very comparable. Minus 240 to make the playoff. All right, then that's the end of tier one. Then you have tier two. This is where there's money to be made. Michigan, USC and Penn State have very similar odds to make the playoff. Plus 270, plus 290, plus 310. And I think there's money to be made there in Tier 2 because I ask you a simple question. Do you think that the Big Ten is only a three bid league? And that's even assuming that the three bids would go to Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State. But I think the Big Ten is going to be more than a three bid league this year. That's just my feel on it. And so the question becomes, all right, well, where's the fourth team? At the very least, where's the fourth team? And then if we really wanted to have fun, and that is what God invented spring for, after all, I could put together a really solid argument for either of those three teams making the playoff. I could easily sell you if you gave me three or four minutes, I could sell you on Michigan. I could sell you on Kyle Whittingham coming in there in a massive uptick in production from Bryce Underwood and just a collective getting together of the program. And really Michigan's performance in 2026 going to show how discombobulated they were at head coach and downstream in 2025. I could sell you on that. I could sell you that USC has a playoff caliber roster. I could sell you on Miave and a third year quarterback under Lincoln Riley. And if wide receivers really going to be one of our biggest concerns there, I just refuse to think that's going to be a big concern. Wire to wire for them. They get a really, really good entry point to the season. They get Oregon in the Coliseum, they get Ohio State in the Coliseum. And I could tell you on Penn State, really, I don't have to say anything other than schedule. But I could also tell you this is Rocco Becht in his ninth or 10th year starting at the quarterback, fourth wow metric system, ninth or 10th year, he doesn't have to learn a new system. Very familiar. A lot of that team's familiar. Matt Campbell's coming into State College. And they are, I think, sort of not a turnkey national title contender, but that is a turnkey playoff contender because of this schedule. I could sell you on any of them. And they all have plus odds. The Big 12. We need to talk about the Big 12. This is not your Meemaw's Big 12. Your Meemaw's Big 12 was a Big 12 where you could finish last one year and first the next year. And like many things, they have changed massively in the Big 12. The SEC, from a structural standpoint, looks way more like the Big 12 used to look than the Big 12 does. And it's because of Joey McGuire. Joey Maguire has ruined the Big 12. I hope he's happy. I don't know how he sleeps at night. Probably with a pillow and a comforter and chapter or two of a book, but look at that. Minus 370 to make the playoff. And then it's Brigham Young in Utah, miles and miles and miles behind him. Just to give you an idea of how this stacks up with all the teams in the country, Texas Tech has the second best odds to make the playoff. Brigham Young is 19th best. Utah is 21st best. So kind of like with the Big Ten, I'll ask a question about the Big 12. Do you think this is a one bid league or do you think it's a two bid league? If you think it's a two bid League, there's a ton of money to be made here because Texas Tech is, I assume, in. And then you got to figure out is Houston going to make the leap with Willie Fritz or is one of the teams from Utah out there, Brigham Young, Utah, are they going to be the one that grabs the spot? I personally think that's one of the most fun Easter egg hunts in this entire equation right now is finding out where the value is. Is there a second playoff team in the Big 12? I think it's Brigham Young. Hear me out. I'm just telling you where I put my money today. I bet Brigham Young to make the playoff today that that is not equal to a prediction that they're going to make the playoff. I just think there's really good value on them to make the playoff. When I have head coach returning in demand, head coach returning, quarterback returning, I think they get a little bit of a subconscious sympathy vibe from the committee in 2026 because right or wrong, some people think they got boxed out last year. There is a Notre Dame home game. Some people will say they have to play Notre Dame. I say they get to play Notre Dame because they get them at home, it should be a knife fight at worst. At best, maybe they pull an upset. But even if they don't, it'll be competitive. I think it will. And they don't play Texas Tech in the regular season, their top 20 in returning production, that right there profiles as a lot better playoff potential resume than 19th overall. So they alleged a lot of things about this show as it relates to BYU last year, and we are fighting the allegations in a big way this spring. On a related note, producer Jesse came to me earlier today. He came into my office, he was already in there, and he said, I have what we are calling the Franklin trifecta. And that is where you take Brigham Young and Penn State and Virginia Tech and you parlay the three to make the playoffs. I'm not advocating for this sort of behavior. I'm just saying he traffics in this sort of behavior. And if you take Brigham Young and Penn State and Virginia Tech, all of the teams basically that were involved in the hurricane of the James Franklin firing and then the Penn State hiring debacle that somehow ended with a massive cherry on top of it, by the way, Brigham Young, Penn State, Virginia Tech, all three to make the playoffs, it returns plus 25,000. That means betting 10 of your dollars returns $2,500. Unless those odds moved in the last hour. But that wasn't the sickest thing Jesse did today. The true sicko move, One of the sickest I've seen in the modern era was he comes in and he says, hey, got a 17 team parlay to bounce off of you. I said, go on. He thought I meant continue. I really meant walk out of the room, don't come back in the room. And then he had Bradley make this ungodly graphic. And this is a 17 team parlay to this is to miss the playoff. Right, Jesse? Yes. So there is not a top 20 team here. Okay? So for this to work out, and really, I would argue even if he wins, he's a loser ultimately in this equation. But if this hits, all we need to have happen is Clemson to miss the playoff and South Carolina to miss the playoff. And Virginia and Arizona and Arizona State and Kansas and Vanderbilt and Kentucky. We're halfway there. UCLA needs to miss the playoff, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Colorado, Iowa State, Minnesota, Mississippi State and Stanford. Where could it go wrong? I don't, I can't even believe fanduel is offering this. Where does it go wrong? So that very, very simple, straightforward, in your face, 17 team parlay for teams to miss the College Football Playoff that returns right at one to one. You go bet $30 on it, probably win about $30 on it. Did you add Syracuse at the bottom? So Syracuse is also going to be added into this. Oh, I get it. Because we couldn't fit them on the graphic so we had to leave one school out. You you Fran Brown anti Fran Brown stance that we've taken here. This is anti logic and common sense is what this is. But you know what? Somehow it made its way onto the show. But I just wanted to illustrate for you, this is not just a world where you bet teams to make the playoff anymore. You can bet them to miss, you can parlay or you can parlay them to miss. My meemaw raised me better than that. But you can do that sort of thing.
