← Josh Pate's College Football Show
Josh Pate's College Football Show
CFP Predictions + Michigan Coaching Search & Heisman Reaction
01:02:51
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Josh Pate
This is an iHeart podcast.
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Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Guaranteed Human.
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Josh Pate
Did you know Tide has been upgraded to provide an even better clean in cold water. Tide is specifically designed to fight any stain you throw at it. Even in cold butter. Yep. Chocolate ice cream.
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Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Sure thing.
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Josh Pate
Barbecue sauce.
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Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Tide's got you covered.
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Josh Pate
You don't need to use warm water. Additionally, Tide pods let you confidently fight tough stains with new coldzyme technology. Just remember, if it's gotta be clean.
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Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
It'S gotta be tied. So you're telling me that the AI that's meant to make everyone's job easier to manage just adds more to manage? On top of the thousands of apps the IT department already manages? Funny how that works. Any business can add AI. IBM helps you scale and manage AI.
- [00:54]
IBM Executive (Arvind Krishna)
To change how you do business. Let's create smarter business IBM.
- [01:04]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
What a matchup we got, y'.
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Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
All.
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Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echo drum beating, everybody showing that school pride game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and an ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going foreign.
- [02:05]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Yeah, we don't talk a lot about Heisman on the show because I'm not a Heisman voter but I not angry about it at all, trust me. But I've got some theories on what happened with the Heisman issue. We're not going to leave the show with it, but just been workshopping a theory today. I'll see if you agree with me. We're jam packed high atop a frozen solid downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Sunday, December 14th, the year of our Lord. Yeah, it is the 14th, 2025 high of 22 in Nashville today. It's been miserable here it is that time. It is Sunday night. It is college football playoff prediction time. At least the first round games. Now on Tuesday night I'll do the full bracket but I'm going to do the games tonight because it will be very anticlimactic for the first round predictions if we did the bracket where you could already see where I'm, who I'm picking. So yeah, this is a very convoluted way of saying make sure you're also here Tuesday night. Now that'll be the last show we do of the week, by the way. Cause the playoffs start on Friday. The Michigan coaching search continues. There have been some statements put out today. There have been some rumors and we're just here to separate fact from possibly fact. Heisman. As I said, I've got some thoughts. We, of course are going to continue the age old December tradition of worst predictions in the history of the show. That's the name of the segment and we will do that at your expense, not mine. I'm the butt of the joke 11 months out of the year around here, but one month, the season of mercy as they call it in December. You people have to tote the load, not me. In reality, we do it together. Spokane, Washington is tuned in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Freeport, Florida, Elizabethtown, Pa. The drive to 1 million continues. Now, some may say, oh, you're a long way from a million subs. Yeah, but they were saying this time last year we were a long way away from 500,000 subs. And the haters are nowhere to be found now. So it's okay. It's a process. We're going to get it there and we're going to get it there with your help. So you and 10 of your friends make sure you are subscribed to the channel. Hey, we got a live appearance later in the week. You know, we did a live show a couple of weeks ago in Atlanta. We're going to be part of another live show. I'm just going to be the friends part. So it was like Pate stayed in Friends in Atlanta. Well, I'm going to be the and friends on this live show. I'll tell you about it in a little while. In the meantime, let's dive in. Let's dive into the College Football Playoff. It is six, five days away. Yeah, five days with kickoff. Miami at Texas A and M is the game that I want to break down first. Saturday noon Eastern Time, 11am local time, kickoff Eastern in College Station, Texas. We will be on hand for this game. We will have been in Norman the night before and I will be on hand with several friends of the program. Actually, whomst's identities will be made public as the week goes on. They're on the sidelines for this one. Let's just set the table for this because it's obviously the first playoff appearance for A and M. It's the first playoff appearance for Miami. Kyle Field. I don't care if they kick it off at 7:00am 7:00pm Going to be a factor here. A&M, seven and oh, at home this season, you may not have much appreciation for that and you may not respect their schedule this year. I don't really care. I've been at that place like last time. I think we were there. Jesse was at the Missouri game. Yeah, we were there. And they blew out Missouri. So Miami. Here's the funny thing about this. Miami went up to pit last game of the regular season. Remember, the kickoff temperature was in the low 30s and I was terrified for him and it turns out I shouldn't have been. Because they made easy work of Pitt and because Miami went and won a game in 30 degree weather, their reward is now playing a game in 70 degree weather. That's right. I've been checking the long range forecast here and many things will come into play, but weather will not. We're looking at low 70s and sunny at kickoff. So thank you, God. Look at God smiling down on us as only he can. Who is, who is the strength here? Well, both of them. So whose strength tops the other's strength? Let's dive into this. Miami profiles as the best run defense that A and M has seen this year. I believe that. All right, so we have the paper here. That's what the paper says. I do believe that to be the case. A and M top 25 run offense. It is a critical part obviously of their offensive game plan. As it is most teams outside of Alabama in this playoff, ironically, Alabama and Oklahoma are the two teams in the playoff that don't run the ball very well. They face each other in round one. Everybody else gives it the good old college try to run the ball. A and M especially. So. So Miami can get after you. Now Miami can get after the passer as well. But really, when you look at this, okay, from a standard run profile perspective, Miami figures to really limit you. But then you think to yourself, hmm, but first off, have they seen a rushing attack like A and M's at its best? Remains to be seen. Maybe not. And then part B is. Doesn't A and M also possess the ability to run the ball at the quarterback position? Yes, they do. Marcel Reed, now he doesn't do it every game, but he'll just randomly pop a 40 yard run on you. I'll just add this note. I think the quarterback run being an integral part of A and M success here is pretty unlikely. It's a huge hinge point. But I'll tell you why I think it's unlikely. We were diving into this earlier today. Miami has faced their fair share of mobile quarterbacks this year. This is a post it popper because I had to write it on a post it. Byron Brown, Kevin Jennings, DJ Lagway, Tommy Castellanos and Kyron Drones. Miami faced all of them this year. Out of those five mobile quarterbacks, would you like to guess how many combined rushing yards those quarterbacks had against Miami? That would be 74. Not average, 74 combined rushing yards. So unless Marcel Reed and Texas A and M completely invert that stat category, I don't expect him to do a ton of damage with his legs. What they could do is a ton of damage on the ground, but that would also have to invert the stat profile and that I expect Miami to carry into this game. It's a huge hinge point because if A and M can run the ball effectively, it opens up the entire offense. And I'm not saying if they don't run the ball effectively, they can't. I just think you get where I'm going there. If they can't, it just falls on Marcel Reed's arm. So if they crack the code, that's great and it helps Marcel Reed and it gets him in second, manageable, third and short. The entire playbook is at their disposal. But if it's a lot of obvious passing downs. We all watched Marcel Reed struggle at times with interceptions. In fact, three of his final five games of the regular season, he had multiple interceptions. So that's one side of the equation. But I think it profiles the same way on the other side of the equation. A and M's probably way more likely to shut down Miami's ground game than Miami is to totally shut down A and M's. Because A and M specializes in running the ball. Miami's 77th in the country in rushing offense. So that's where Carson Beck walks into the room. And I think Carson Beck started the season and they won the Notre Dame game. Then they had some games where why aren't they pushing the ball down the field more? Is he hurt? Wow. He just doesn't look special. And then people kind of gave up on him. But if you watched him in his final three games, 81% completion percentage guy, he was averaging nearly 300 yards per game, passing 10 to one touchdown to INT ratio. So Carson Beckman played his best ball down the stretch and he's going to face a top 10 pressure rate defense here. Their number one are the Texas A and M Aggies in sacks per game. So I leave it up to a veteran quarterback to be able to manage, move around in the pocket a little bit, buy himself a little bit of extra time. A lot of it's just on that Miami offensive line. And this is where going on the road's real tough because you do not play in in environments like this in the acc. You don't play in many of them like this anywhere. So again, 11am kickoff, 11pm kickoff, whatever. It's going to be tough for him. They're going to make it really tough for him there, especially if Miami is not able to start fast and grab an early lead. So what I'll watch especially is not Ken Carson Beck make the place. He'll make some plays here. They'll move the chains here. How much does Miami have to focus their passing attack on Malachi Toney? Really good player, really good wide receiver there. So much so that he's had more production than the next two behind him have at Miami. And that is notable because Texas A and M, another paper popper to watch here. They have held wide receiver ones under 40 yards receiving half a dozen times this year. Now you hadn't faced half a dozen Malachi Tonys would be my retort if I were the Miami sports and information department of the program and they would be right about that. That's why it's a prediction. That's why it remains to be seen. But I think it does come down to quarterbacks under pressure. In all seriousness, as I said, Marcel Reed, if he is part of a balanced attack and if they're running the ball and he's just kind of working off that in a complimentary fashion, great game on. But if not, like I said, three of his final five games, multiple ints. The thing I love about Texas A and M, one of the sort of big personnel edges here is I think they've got a deeper and more versatile group of weaponry offensively. Like, they don't have to focus in on one guy as much as Miami does Malachi Toney. But also like even within that, A and M was banged up at the skill positions, as was pretty much every other team towards the end of the year. So these two to three weeks off, what does it do in terms of freshness? Like, does Mario Craver come out in this game looking like he shot out of a cannon? Because that's going to happen case by case with some of these teams. So as you look at the way the different ways rather this game could go, I think if, if you have a game where they kind of start off feeling each other out and you know you got a ball that goes off a DB's fingertips and you're breathing this sigh of relief, like, oh, man, and we're not running the ball all that great. And we just put it in the air. That could have been disastrous. If that kind of stuff happens early, I think the game could grind to a halt. I think scoring in the game could grind to a halt. And I think no matter what with Miami, the big question as it goes on, like, once you feel it out, once your guys settle in, and there will be a period of that for Miami offensively, how bold is Shannon Dawson willing to get here? Because Miami trusts their defense to win this game. Texas did and Miami will. Is that the way the game starts to play out? Because Miami's defense, they're really good at preventing cat buster plays. Those are plays of 40 plus and A&M is 79th in explosive plays, 88th in cat busters defensively. So you can pop them. That's one of the big statistical edges Miami has. You've typically had to drive the field and several plays and extend the drive and whatnot to score on Miami. A and M will give up explosive plays here, but that's given that Carson Beck can stretch the field. That's given that guys other than Malachi Tony step up, and that's given Shannon Dawson feels like his guy has enough time to where they can dial it up. So let's take a look at what the model thinks on this game. FanDuel's got Texas A and M minus three and a half. Right now. The model is a little bit higher on Texas A and M. We got Texas a and M -5 and a half. Neither of these big opening round matchups I have a great feel on. So I was very close to picking Miami outright earlier today, but then I talked myself over to. I think if there's a more consistent ground game here, it's likely to be A and M. So, you know, if I've got these other variables, I'll lean on the more dependable ground game. But then I taught myself off that and I said, man, I don't know if anyone's going to dependably run the ball on Miami. So then I thought about home field and what it can mean. So I don't really have a strong feel on the game. Therefore, I'll just ride the model. I'll have fun watching it there, as we all will. I'll take Texas A and M to winning cover and we're not betting a dime on it. No strong feel whatsoever. I will say it's crazy that Ohio State sitting there and they're awaiting the winner of this game. And if it's A and M, they could have to play, they get to slash, have to play them in Arlington. I think that's what happened last year though, isn't it Jesse? Ohio State had to play Texas in Texas. So no matter what, you're, you're playing a really, really good team here and you're going to play them in Dallas. We will be on hand for this one, courtesy of Quick Trip. Quick Trip fuels us everywhere we go. The Fall Don't Lie tour has been fueled all season long by kwiktrip. Myself personally, from just a pure high unleaded caffeine intake standpoint, I've been fueled by KWIK Trip all year. The KwikTrip cold brew on tap. I'm ready to call it one of the top five most important inventions in American history and one of the top two or three most important inventions in my lifetime. So I hope I haven't been unclear there. And Quick Trip will fuel us out to Norman, Oklahoma and then down to College Station this weekend. Is anyone else out there making that trek? I know that's not the easiest thing to pull off, but you know, I 35 if you drive it late enough at night can be kind of fun. During the day, nightmare. But at night can be kind of fun. The Fall Don't Lie T shirts by the way, for both of these games available@pacestatematerial.com all right, that piece of paper out of the way. I think I had like four whale breeches there. Jesse by the way, if you really, really pay close attention to the show, you'll notice that there are some wrinkles in the white T shirt tonight. It's very uncharacteristic. I am a very, very high level dresser and my palette from a food standpoint may be unrefined, but my fashion palette is second to none. So you know that something's wrong if the white T shirt is wrinkled. Well, it's because it is my second string T shirt. Because foolishly, my T shirt provider, soon to be my former T shirt provider, shipped me some new T shirts today and I did not take them out of the pack. I just threw the pack in the car, drove to the office and 15 minutes before showtime started to change and realized they had shipped me what equated to white garbage bags. That is a 6 XL white tee. If you're listening on podcast. Thank you. I would prefer no one see this, but I figured I had to address the wrinkles in the backup T shirt. That's because this is a backup T shirt because I was not walking on air looking like that. Imagine the accumulation of shirt in the chair here. I would have looked like I was sitting in a snow drift. It's terrible. So, on a slightly related note, I am now in the market for a new white T shirt provider because that I can't. I've got to take it as disrespectful if I don't know any better. And I don't. So I hope you're listening out there. Whom Stiver, whomstever could answer my call as I throw it out into the market. We don't even have an official shirt provider of the show anyway, so probably about time we do that.
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Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
What a matchup we got, y'.
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Jenna Kim Jones
All.
- [17:36]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. Band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echo drum beat everybody showing that school pride. Game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there.
- [17:56]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Mmm.
- [17:56]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and in ice cold Coca Cola, that's a winning combo. No matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
- [18:21]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Hello. Hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast smart talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman.
- [18:28]
IBM Executive (Arvind Krishna)
And CEO Arvind Krishna, and I asked.
- [18:31]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?
- [18:37]
IBM Executive (Arvind Krishna)
My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software, 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.
- [19:28]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smarttalks. And Doug, there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual, even if it means playing in a football game. Boom.
- [19:49]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
42. You're going down, Doug.
- [19:51]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Oh, yeah. Your price on car insurance when you customize and save is going down. Hey, limu, what are you doing on their team? Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty.
- [20:09]
Josh Pate
Breaking news, everybody. Not everything is terrible. I repeat, not everything is terrible. The ripple effect with Jenna Kim Jones is proof that the Internet, it hasn't ruined humanity entirely.
- [20:21]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Let me start by saying it's a great day to be a gray shirt team. Rubicon. You know, it truly is a team. Those folks, myself included, all had one desire, which is helping folks in disaster. Trying to be a little bit of hope in a really, really bad situation.
- [20:34]
Josh Pate
It's like magic, you guys. So put down your doom scroller and pick up your faith in humanity and join me, Jenna, for the ripple effect. It's a reminder that you can start a ripple that changes everything. You really can.
- [20:47]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
We give just that nugget of hope helping other people. For some of our gray shirts, it's during a time when they need help and by helping others, it helps them.
- [20:59]
Josh Pate
Listen to the ripple effect with Jenna Kim Jones on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [21:10]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Next up, let's continue. I got some Michigan coaching stuff coming up. That one's about to get really, really interesting. But in the meantime, Alabama at Oklahoma, Friday night, 8 Eastern, 7 Central Kickoff on ABC. This game happened a month ago in Tuscaloosa. That was a very memorable weekend. If you'll recall. That was a game I was ultra confident on. Bama, I think was about a five and a half point favorite or so. Again, that game was in Tuscaloosa. This one's in Norman. Bama still favored by 1 1/2 on the road here. But remember, that was the game where I felt ultra confident. The model felt ultra confident. I think we had Alabama projected as like a nine and a half or a ten and a half point winner. So we made it one of our best bets of the week. And you'll be happy to know that Alabama outgained OU 406 to 212. It's great news. They had a 23 to 12 first down edge. That's fantastic. And yet. Oh, wait, I'm hearing they still lost the game 23 to 21. How could that be? Oh, I remember there were minus three turnovers or. Oh, you was plus three turnovers. I say it that way because sometimes turnovers are freak occurrences. And while it is a randomized stat game to game, there was nothing random or accidental about How Oklahoma forced turnovers in that game. And I also remember a lot of other interceptible balls that Ty Simpson was made to throw and I remember other balls just on the ground that, that, oh, you happened to not recover. So it could have been even worse. I mean they put on a clinic, just teach tape stuff from Oklahoma's defense on how to punch the ball out. I think they forced one on a punt return too, if I'm not mistaken with Ryan Williams. So yeah, Oklahoma went into Tuscaloosa knowing we're really limited offensively and we're going to have to play a complimentary game and we're going to have to win this game defensively. And they did it. And they did it. So the biggest theme was from that game as we roll it over into this game is the reason why we were confident in Alabama because any high level passing attack that Oklahoma had faced to that point, that is Ole Miss in Tennessee had been able to throw for 320 plus, I think it was. And we expected Alabama to do the same. And Alabama did do the same. They had 326 through the air. What did it come at the expense of turnovers? So that's where I think we should start here. Should we expect that kind of production? Because I know this piece of paper, playoff games not played on these. But this piece of paper says Alabama's got the number 23 passing offense in the country. I don't believe that. I don't know that. I would call the current passing attack that Alabama's been putting on the field as one of the 25 best in the country. I think a lot of that is front loaded statistically to where yes, over the span of 12 games they were that. But you got a long way to go to sort of, sort of pull the stick back up, pull the nose back up before you're operating at the kind of efficiency level that you were against Oklahoma the first time. Now if they are back to those ways, then Alabama's got a good shot to win this game. Ty Simpson early. Bears close watching here because if, if Ty Simpson's had off games, it hasn't been in the second half, third quarter, fourth quarter, it's been early, you can tell pretty early. And Oklahoma will get after him more than Georgia did and Georgia got after him. So that really goes back to the whole health thing with Alabama. Firstly, how much, how much of Ty Simpson do we get? Secondly, Parker Brailsford at the center position, how much have these couple of weeks down between the SEC title game and this game helped him. But the running back position is key here. Not just their health in terms of being able to scratch out 70 or so yards on the ground, but receiving the ball, catching the ball out of the backfield. None of that was existent against Georgia. It's got to be here. So that's the first thing. The second thing is what should I expect from Oklahoma? Offensively both of these offenses had been very challenged. Alabama down the stretch, Oklahoma pretty much all year. After the material injury, the run game probably not going to be there for either one of them. I mean Oklahoma's got the 63rd rated pass offense in the country right now and Bama's top 10 in pass D. Oklahoma hadn't run the ball nearly enough effectively. So you know they don't profile as a playoff team. Offensively, Mattier has been under 225 passing five of his final, final six games. So yeah, I could rub the Magic 8 ball and I could just wish for them to magically appear out of these two or three weeks down as a different looking offense. I don't expect that they did. Now here's the good news, they did. Mattier did have over 300 through the air against LSU. He threw three picks. So I don't know that that's the approach. I don't know that a trigger happy approach is what either of them will take here. Oklahoma's offensive approach will be complementary to the team approach just like it was last time and that is approximately this. If it ends in a kick then that means it was a successful drive for us and we're going to get a few opportunities to strike and when we get them, we got a strike because that's exactly what happened last time. Okay, they, they, they didn't drive length of the field but they also knew Bama wasn't going to be able to against them or at least they didn't think they would. And if they do, they're going to have to take enough risk to where we'll force turnovers and I'll get back to that in a second cause field position has tilted both of the games. Bama has lost down the stretch and Oklahoma put on a clinic in that department last game as well. So looking at some practice stuff from Alabama and talking to some people over there, Josh Cuevas is I think likely to play in this game. Jam Miller, I think they expect him back for this game. LT Overton maybe back for this game. We'll see. I know that's been more of a medical thing than an injury thing. Parker Brailsford he played against Georgia way less than 100%. At center, Jeremy Bernard, you know, kind of hobbling around. So how healthy are they relatively speaking? John Mattier with his legs on third down. Bears close watching. In a game like this where every, every third down is precious. Kind of like an old school game when you used to watch like high level defensive teams play every third down, you celebrate it like it's a touchdown. Every third down conversion to a first down at least. So the field position thing I think is the most important part of this. This game that Bama played against them, Oklahoma and this game Bama played against Georgia in Atlanta did not go their way against Oklahoma a month ago. Bama never started a drive past their 30 yard line against Georgia last week they never started to drive past their own 25 yard line. Oklahoma in this game had four drives that started in Bama territory. Georgia last week had three drives that started in Bama territory and they scored 21 points on them. They also blocked punt. Alabama had a punt blocked last week. So that sort of thing. I guess if you have a high level coaching staff and you're getting guys back healthy, you know, you would think, especially with all the red sharpie circles around what went wrong for you last time that maybe that stuff gets quote unquote cleaned up. The phrase I just love. So let's take a look at what the model thinks. FanDuel's got Bama minus one and a half. Models got Bama minus two and a half. How many points do you think it takes to win this game? Our guess is 21. 21 or less maybe, but I would say 21 probably. If you, if you tell either one of them you're going to get that many. I think they feel good about holding the other to less. The over under is 40 and a half here. Look, my instinct is to take Alabama in this game. I've got Alabama winning the national title. Now of course that prediction was made months ago and I don't feel great about that right now, but I actually am going to pick Oklahoma to win the game because I've watched Alabama play this team twice in the past two years and I've watched the things that you would call freak occurrences, randomized outcomes, that is Turnovers. I've watched Brent Venables and his team able to do that two times and I'm starting to think that maybe it's not so randomized. And I don't know if we're looking at the beginnings of a trend or if those were just sort of a couple of one offs and Alabama will restore order here. I don't know that, but I've heard rumors of Sooner Magic. I've heard rumblings of Sooner Magic and I'm not go. I don't want to go as far as to say I totally believe in Sooner Magic, but I will go as far as to say I don't want to bet against it. So I will take Oklahoma to win this game and I will be in attendance for it no matter what. That one's the Friday night game. Remember kids, on your calendar, that's the Friday night game. Also, it should be noted the night before Thursday night, that's December 18th at Riverwind Theater there in Norman. I believe it's in Norman. Is it OKC or Norman? I think it's Norman. 7pm Yours truly Kubelik Stanford Steve Dusty Dvorchek appearing alongside Gabe Eichard and Teddy Lehman there. Oklahoma Breakdown live a live show. Whomst amongst us whomstadt a thunk it a live show. People like us able to put on live shows. I have nothing to do with this. As far as I know. I'm not making a dime off this show, although they are shipping me some food and we may get some chips to play with in the casino. But no, we are just there to lend our unwavering support to longtime friends of the program and maybe if we get a free dinner out of it, maybe that's a bonus. But we're just there to have fun. So we'll see a lot of you guys Thursday night before the game on Friday night. All right, let's continue to roll merrily along here. Got a lot of post. Its an inordinate amount of post its on the desk right now. The Michigan coaching search continues. It's been a very, very whirlwind, memorable type week for Michigan football. I think they're going to end up so much better for this. They're not in a great place right now, but I mean once the fog clears like Michigan will have clearly upgraded at their head coaching position. And it's not the means with which you wanted to do it. This is not necessarily the playbook that you wanted to execute, but it is what it is. And and so it is my belief at the outset of this coaching search, Michigan is going to come out a big winner on the other end. Translation, when the dust settles and you've hired your new coach and he gets his staff in there and you've got your roster for 2026, you're going to look at it and say, yep I much rather take this than whatever the alternative was. So there is not a favorite. Well, let me rephrase. I don't think there's a favorite for this job yet. What that doesn't mean is there may not be factions or pockets of people that have their preferred candidate. Of course, everyone has their preferred candidate. Hey, I got a guy or two that I think would be best cut out for this job. I'm sure that members of the Board of regents, maybe the athletic director there, members of the search firm and the currently being assembled search committee, everybody's got a favorite or two. I don't think there's a consensus favorite for the job because I don't think that's where the search is just yet. I do think, though, they will end up in a much better spot because I think just from the names that have been thrown around that I've heard that have expressed interest, several of them would have been upgrades anyway. That's whether or not there was any off the field scandal. Just if the job had poof, come open, these were going to be upgrades anyway. So the Kalyn DeBoer thing, let's start on that first. Kalyn DeBoer is a hot candidate for pretty much any head coaching opening. Penn State would have loved to have had Kaylin DeBoer. There was little interest there. Michigan would love to have Kalyn DeBoer. There's been a lot of debate about whether there's interest there. Now. Earlier today, Kaylin DeBoer in Alabama released a statement and he said, my family and I are very happy in Tuscaloosa. We're grateful President AD we're looking forward to playing Oklahoma. Here's the money quote, I have not spoken with and have no interest in speaking with anyone else about any other job. I'm fully committed to this program and look forward to continuing as the head football coach at the University of Alabama. Now, I tweeted out the water gif Friday, which I usually tweet out when I think big news is coming. I perceived this to be pretty big news. I thought this was coming out on Friday. This had been rumored for a while in conjunction with an a new contract or a contract extension or a reworked contract for Kaylin Deborah, which I still expect sometime soon. But I think it was smart that they got out ahead of this. Certainly, if you're a believer that Kaylan Bore was the favorite for the Michigan job, there was nowhere in that statement where he said, hey, I'm not taking the Michigan job. So if that's what you require you're not getting that from him. And in lieu of that, if you believe that he is still the number one target, slash the most likely candidate to take that job, I don't know what to tell you other than to tell you this. I don't think Kaylin DeBoer is going anywhere. Feel pretty good about our sourcing on that. So you guys are free to believe whatever you want. But I do believe that he'll be at Alabama this Friday and well beyond this Friday, no matter what the outcome of that game is. I hope I've been pretty clear there. Now, as for candidates beyond Kaylin DeBoer, Kenny Dillingham's name has been a pretty hot name in this coaching search. There's Pete Nakos. Pete Nakos via On3, his hot board right there. DeBoer. Lincoln Riley's on there. I don't expect Lincoln Riley to be involved in this search unless something changes. Eli Drinkwoods, I think is a dark horse name. Jed Fish absolutely in the equation. Kenny Dillingham is on this list, though. I think Kenny Dillingham is a wonderful candidate for Michigan. That would be the guy that I would pursue. That's where I need to hit pause. And I got to remind a lot of our Arizona State brethren who have been really, really angry at me suggesting that because they're suggesting that I'm trying to advocate for him leaving Arizona State. I'm not advocating for anything. I have been asked who I would go after if I were Michigan or on this show. If we've done these segments, it would be pretty stupid for me to do it and not tell you who, who I think they should go after. Who I'd go after is Kenny Dillingham. Just like I'd go after Kalyn DeBoer if I were them. DeBoer is going to tell him no. He already did. And if that wasn't enough when he actually says no to them, when they officially offer him, that'll be the no from DeBoer. Kenny may tell him no, too. I couldn't care less what he tells them. I think it's great when guys like Kenny Dillingham who have unique ties to a program, in this case Arizona State, when they stay with that program, I think it's wonderful. So I'm not rooting for it one way or the other. I'm telling you if I'm advocating for the Michigan side of things, that means I'm putting on my Michigan hat for a second. And putting on my Michigan hat means I look at that guy and I see what he's done in terms of quarterback development. I see what he's done in terms of lighting a fan base on fire. I love the energy. I love the passion. I love how much his guys will go over a cliff for him. I love the energy that he would bring. And also I love. Aside from him being a good football coach, because that's first and foremost by 10 miles. You got to understand what Michigan has had versus what he would bring. Michigan is like an oil field. I've been watching Landman lately. It's like an oil field that really hasn't been drilled properly. Now, that sounds weird because they've won a national championship recently. I'm just telling you from a passion, energy and resource standpoint in the new age, no one's really drilled deep at Michigan yet. When you do, money's flying all over the place. It's there, it's there. I've got it on. Good word. A little birdie has flown in my ear recently and told me, you know, maybe since the Sharon Moore firing, there's a little bit of an uptick even in nil contribution. They are primed from an nil contribution standpoint, from a donor energy and engagement standpoint, to where anybody, but especially a guy as dynamic as that, if they get dropped in that seat, it just. It is. It's no guarantee from a records perspective. I just think it's a home run, and I really hate saying that. So I just think it would be very successful, let me put it that way. So anyway, that's how I would feel if I were Michigan. If I were Arizona State, I would be rooting for him to stay there. I am neither. In fact, I prefer that guys stay at a job a long time. But, I mean, that's not the spirit of the segment. The spirit of the segment or the spirit of me doing a radio hit in Detroit and they ask who should Michigan go after? Is to just tell you who I would go after if I were Michigan. So here's where I think that stands. By the way, Kenny, yesterday, as we're talking, this is Sunday, Saturday they had practice, and he comes off the practice field. He talked about a few things. He talked about how much he loves Arizona State, which is obviously accurate. He talked about how much he'd love to be there, which is 100% accurate. He said Michigan has not contacted him whatsoever. He has not spoken with anyone at Michigan. I can tell you that's 100% accurate. And that was about it. And they've been working on a contract extension for him. And that's been going on for several weeks now. So everything he said yesterday, as far As I know, 100% true. That doesn't mean that anything is over done with, at least. I wouldn't perceive it that way. From the outside looking in, I wouldn't perceive it that way. This is the Michigan job, guys. It's the Michigan job. I don't know what else to tell you. Pretty much everyone's going to listen outside of like Ryan Day. I'm not. I'm going to go ahead and in fact, I'm going to do this now. I'm going to rule Ryan Day out from Michigan. And that's breaking on this show. So anyone reporting that, please source us properly. Ryan Day is not a candidate for the Michigan job. I'm pretty sure Kirby's happy at Georgia. You know, things of this nature. Other than that, I'd be nervous. I'd be nervous. This is a little euphemism here, but I'd be nervous if my candidate had not said no or signed an extension and the Michigan job was still open. This is a very coveted job. It is a primed opportunity. It's an elite opportunity. It's elite resources. And it just so happens to have come open when it came open. I think that right now the status of that search is. It's in the search firm stages, and the search firm is basically identifying and vetting and accumulating information, and then that information is handed over to a committee. Like this is going way differently than the Penn State search where it was pretty much Pat Kraft. So they're going search firm, I believe, over to a search committee. And there's. There's a rush, but there's not a hurried rush. You know, you want to get it right however long it takes to get it right, not a second longer. So I think the wheels will be put in motion. It would not surprise me at all if they still waited until after Friday. And if Bama gets eliminated Friday, Force Caitlin DeBoer to say no, I believe he will and then move on. That could be their strategy or they could get pretty strong feedback that, hey, man, no means no. Like he's locked in this week and maybe they move on this week. Maybe DeBoer and Alabama going to win the national championship and it's a moot point either way. But yeah, I would. Here's what I'll say. I said it over on the Michigan on 3 board earlier today, and I will say it again. I know it seems like, you know, the whole Kenny Dillingham, Kaylin, DeBoer thing. They just kind of look similar. It's just a couple of, hey, I'm happy where I'm at. I don't think those were the same thing. That's what I'll say. Academy Sports and Outdoors is your one stop shop for fill in the blank because I don't want to limit you, I don't want to box you in. So it could be your one stop shop for hunting gear. It could be your one stop shop for the fact that you just spent your Christmas bonus installing an indoor batting cage. And so your kid is about to dominate coach pitch this year and you're going to go gear up and you guys are going to be hitting over Christmas break and in January. More power to you. That's great. Go to Academy to do it. Now you may also want to go to Academy because you're fully stocked up, you're good to go, but you have Christmas shopping to check off the list. Boom, boom, boom. Academy Sports and Outdoors is the place to do that. And academy.com if you can't get there in person, I encourage both. But in person there's just that magic. There's just that magical feel this time of year in an Academy Sports and outdoors. That Christmas smell. And I don't really know what that means per se, but I'm just saying you feel it when you walk in. I talked about sooner magic earlier. Academy Magic. Academy Magic as well. Probably need to trademark that.
- [42:41]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
What a matchup we got, y'.
- [42:42]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
All.
- [42:42]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
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- [43:02]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Mmm.
- [43:03]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and an ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
- [43:28]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Hello. Hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast smart talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?
- [43:44]
IBM Executive (Arvind Krishna)
My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.
- [44:35]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smarttalks. And Doug, there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual, even if it means playing in a football game. Boom.
- [44:56]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
42. You're going down, Doug.
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Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Oh yeah. Your price on car insurance when you customize and save is going down.
- [45:02]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
Hi.
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Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Limu. What are you doing on their team? Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty.
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Josh Pate
Breaking news, everybody. Not everything is terrible. I repeat, not everything is terrible. The Ripple Effect with Jenna Kim Jones is proof that the Internet, it hasn't ruined humanity entirely.
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Jenna Kim Jones
Clean the world. We have almost 10,000 hotels that operate our soap and plastic recycling program and we have created and distributed 90 million free bars of soap to children, families, mothers in 127 countries across the globe.
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Josh Pate
It's like magic, you guys. So put down your doom scroller and pick up your faith in humanity and join me, Jenna, for the ripple effect. It's a reminder that you can start a ripple that changes everything. You really can.
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Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Best stat of all is that the.
- [45:59]
Jenna Kim Jones
Death rate to children under the age of five dying to hygiene related illnesses has decreased by more than 60% since the day we started.
- [46:07]
Josh Pate
Listen to the Ripple Effect with Jenna Kim Jones on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
- [46:18]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
All right, let's continue. Now look, I know that some of you scratch that. Many of you are looking at the playoff first round and you're saying, oh cool, two games. No, no, let's be nice about this. There are four games. It just so happens that two of the games have point spreads of 17 and a half and 21 and a half. You know, but they are playoff games. So Tulane plays Ole miss this Saturday, 3:30 Eastern kickoff on TNT. You heard me right. Oftentimes on the show during the season when we break down games and they have really big point spreads, we don't bother just predicting the winner because pretty much everyone Knows who's going to win or they think they know who's going to win. So what we like to do is we like to say, let's just pretend the upset is going to happen. How would it happen? And we've been left with no choice. That's how we have to break down these playoff games. In this case, this game already happened in this venue. This year, Tulane went to Ole Miss and they lost 45 to 10. They got out, gained 548 to 282. Ole Miss scored on their first five possessions. That was during the Lane Kiffin era. Now we're in the peak Golding era. So how would this happen? Well, I've tried my best to paint the path here. Follow me. Follow me. Tulane, you cannot get torched through the air. Now I have bad news. That was very easily said. The problem is you're looking at the number three passing offense in the country against number 124, pass D. Number three, explosive pass plays. Number 128, explosive pass D. See how it goes downhill so quickly? All you got to do is flip that two lane. That's all you got to do. Limit explosives. Maybe you can shorten the game. Maybe you don't fall behind 23 to 3 like you did last time. Which means this is part B of the scenario here. That means that maybe, just maybe, you can have a little more balance in your offensive play calling. And maybe, just maybe, Jake Retzlav, quarterback there at Tulane by way of Brigham Young, can use his legs a little bit more and maybe you can run the ball a little bit more. They ran for 178 last time, but they were in catch up mode the whole time, so they just had to throw the ball. Need more than 178. Need a game script that allows us to run the ball more frequently. And you got to make third and fourth down matter and you got to tilt it way, way, way heavy in your favor. Last time, Tulane was 6 of 18 on third and fourth down. And I don't know how much better it needs to be, but it needs to be markedly better than that. And then there's the other elephant in the room, and that is Lane Kiffin's not there for this game. I have no idea how to quantify that. I don't know what it means. I know odds makers think that he and his staff were worth about four points. Some of them are back. He's not. Trinidad Chambliss has had zero multiple INT games this year. That's why I didn't even Mention turnovers yet? Sure. If two lanes plus three turnovers, good shot, they pull the upset or at least good shot. They're in position to try and to try to. Ole Miss hasn't done that and you've got their full focus. Going to say the same thing about JMU Oregon. A lot of times in these big point spread games, they happen in the middle of the year and it could be a letdown spot, it could be a look ahead spot. You get none of this. This is one of those rare situations where teams that you're two to three touchdowns better than you're fully focused on and this isn't even a great G5 team. I mean Sumrall has been brutally honest about this team all year. He's just shot straight. He's like hey man, I'm glad we're winning these games but we're very immature. We're very young. We are undisciplined at times but because of the landscape this year they made the playoff 17 and a half point spread. What do we think here? Let's take a look at what the model thinks. It thinks the exact same thing Fanduel thinks. We've both got Ole Miss -17 and a half. The way I think these games are going to play out, I'm going to do the Oregon game in a second. I think the same thing. You've got a rare opportunity here if you are the favorite. It used to be that I was scared of playoff expansion because I thought we'd get to a spot where the playoff was so big teams would like rest starters and at the end of the year in games if they knew they had a playoff spot locked up. What I didn't plan on is we made the playoffs so big that we would have games where teams could rest starters during playoff games. But if you get out to an early lead in these games, think about the opportunity. If you get out to an early lead, if you go for the throat, if you go for the kill shot early and you get it, you could be up 35 to 7 and your starters are already out midway through the third quarter, late third quarter. And you're looking at it like we're not supposed to be getting rest. Our backups aren't supposed to be getting reps in a playoff game, are they? Well, this is the playoff in the year of our Lord 2026. Anything can happen. I'm going to take Ole Miss to win and cover. I don't know. I don't know what to tell you other than it's A playoff game. Enjoy it. We only get so many of them. Pay State material dot com. There's a favorite over there and it's everything. The Tis the Season collection. I implore you, as I do about once per year, that if you want to get this stuff by Christmas, really, two days ago was the best time to order. But who knows? It's only December 14th right now, so you can still go over there and order. Got a bunch of different Christmas sweaters. Got the chuggy Tis the season to be chuggy sweater right there. Jesse's contribution to the store. Merry Christmas, you filthy casual inspired by producer Jesse. And they are all available@patstatematerial.com Perfect. Perfect stocking stuffers. Even though you'd be hard pressed to fit those in a stocking. But I digress. You know what I mean by that. Let's continue. I'm going to break down this game too. And then we're going to get some Heisman thoughts and some worst predictions thoughts. The Heisman thing. You know what? I'll get to it in a second. It's that time of year. Let me say hey to the live chat right quick. James Madison is in the playoff. Take time and celebrate. You deserve it. Well, according to some, you deserve it. And you played based on the rules, you played based on the structure of the sport. And you got in the playoff. That means you deserve to be in the playoff. And that's all that matters. So you may or may not know this, but Prez is one of our production assistants. He makes a lot of those fancy looking graphics that you see. He handles most of the social media for us. Prez went to jmu, right? Prez? Yeah, went to jmu. I don't even think he has the ability to talk to me. Also worked there. He knows James Madison intimately. Not the president. The school knows him intimately. He knows this team intimately. And he has ridden the roller coaster with them all year. And I called him into my office today, I made it sound like we were firing him. And I walked in and I said, you're not getting fired. It's actually way worse than that. These were my exact words to him. And I said, you're not getting fired. It's way worse. I need you to give me ammunition for the JMU upset segment tonight. I have assembled his quotes. Quote, we're just having fun, man. We are very happy to be here. I am a realist quote. And this one's fortune cookie stuff right here. If you expect disappointment, you will never actually be disappointed with that. We Enter into the JMU Oregon upset alert segment for the evening. Rarely, rarely are you this outmanned by but getting the opposition's full weight leaned upon you. But this is a playoff game. It's a home playoff game in Austin Stadium and I don't really care if it's a local high school wandering in there. They're going to look for the splattering. They're going to just look to have purple all over the place, paint the walls with their blood type situation. So yeah, it is good that JMU made it here. But now you got a football game to play. You're a 21 and a half point dog, Wayne Knight, over 1200 rushing yards this year. That's wonderful. You're facing the top 10 run defense. I felt the pregnant pause was necessary there because the game script we're most likely to see play out is that of JMU trailing and trying to keep up. And that's where the prediction really goes downhill paper pop because this is the 94th ranked passing offense in the country. So I think I found a path. It's really, really narrow. You got to angle it just right for the sunshine to come through. But if the worst were to happen here and Oregon were to be upset, I think it would probably be that Oregon got out to a lead but it was like 10 to nothing or 13 to nothing and it could have been way worse. But you know, like a turnover on downs at the three or something like that. There's some missed opportunities but they get out to a misleading early margin and somehow they take their foot off the gas and they keep messing around and you can tell that you're the only one keeping them in the game, but whatever because they're still in the game and you come out of the half in the third quarter and they cattle prod you and special team score, fake punt, like they just steal a possession, they steal some field position and they get in the game and once you've kind of turned it off a little bit, it proves to be difficult to throttle it back up. And it's a game in the fourth quarter and JMU at that point says hey man, if it's a one possession game and it's a 15 minute game, we can hang in that four quarters was going to be tough. One quarter could happen. I think that's the way it has to go. Oregon is not without but they are losing both coordinators. So Will Stein is the head coach at Kentucky, Taj Lapoy is new head coach at Cal. So they've been splitting duties. But Bob Chesney is the head coach at jmu. He's taken a new job. And by the way, for anyone who says, oh, it's just a scapegoat to blame the calendar, I present to you exhibit A, B, C, D, E, F, G. Because it feels like every game that we're previewing so far, we got coaches on the move. It's not like coaches have never left jobs before. It's just normally, you know, in a sane world, you know, you can wait to the end of the year to do it. Forgot to even mention A and M. Both of their coordinators moving on as well. So let's take a look at what the model thinks. FanDuel's got Oregon -21 and a half. Hey, models only got Oregon -19. I think this will be the Sarah McLaughlin special. And I don't necessarily know that we want to poke fun at JMU if it were to happen that way, but I think Oregon is going to get out to a huge lead really early. Game's over at halftime and they are resting starters in the second half. Also, I want to see how many starters they get back, by the way. So I don't know. I'm taking Oregon to winning cover. It is what it is. It's no one's fault that's in the game. But I think we all know that if. If the impetus for expanding the playoff is having more competitive games, that's not it. That's unlikely to be it. Now, I already went through my whole Spiel about the G5 and why they should and shouldn't be in. And if they should and shouldn't be in, it has nothing to do with what the score of this game will be Saturday has nothing to do with that. For me, that's not my argument. My argument about whether or not the G5 should be included in the playoff is a whole separate thing. So JMU could lose by 50 or win by three, in my opinion, would be unchanged. Let's move on. We had a question about the Heisman. I'm going to take a drink of water. We don't normally talk about this a lot, but Caleb hit us up. I feel like we need to. All right. There's a whale breach there, too. So Caleb here in Nashville hit me and said, since when did the Heisman turn into the best player on the best team award? Diego Pavia had better stats and was way more important to his team than Fernando Mendoza was. Caleb, I would have voted for Diego Pavia. He would have been my number One, I don't think people paid a whole lot of attention to the Heisman Trophy this year. I've got a theory on this, and that is that there was not this breakout star on a brand name team this year that normally, you know, captures your imagination. There was no, like Cam Newton or Johnny Manziel or anything like that. And so that's part one. Part two is think about how atypical this year was in that we had all these coaching searches happening during October and November, which took a lot of people's attention. And then of course, you just got the normal things that would take your attention, like playoff race, a lot of playoff debate. And, you know, obviously the people voting on the Heisman are people who are also going to be locked into talking about that stuff. I just don't think a lot of people paid attention to the Heisman. And then it came to the very end of the season and they just kind of looked around and said, well, no one's really standing out. Let's just make our decision on conference championship Saturday. So here's the one thing you're never going to get me to do. You will never get me to speak ill of Fernando Mendoza. I love that dude. I saw a tweet that was circulating over the last couple of days. Hey, good for Fernando Mendoza. But we'll see how he fits in the NFL. We'll see how that vibe plays in the NFL. Yeah. So the only vibe check needed on Fernando Mendoza is the first play of the Big Ten championship game where he was into. Where he was basically in a car crash. On the first play, the impact was that of a car crash and he got up and played the remaining 59 minutes and 45 seconds of the game in a state that would have ended most people's lives. And he still won the game. Didn't score a ton, but won the game and beat Ohio State. Only team to do it, as far as I can tell. In the process, I am just a believer. You don't have to tear one down to build the other up. I believe Diego Pavia should have won this award. I would have voted for him. I don't have to speak ill of Fernando Mendoza to do that. That's what always used to get me about the LeBron MJ debate. It's like someone says, oh, MJ's the goat man. LeBron sucks. I'm pretty sure he doesn't, guys. I'm pretty sure no matter where you land on that argument. The other one was pretty good. Bo versus Herschel. Oh, man, Bo's nowhere close to Herschel. I'm pretty sure he was. It's one of the few aliens that have just been loaned to us, and they happen to play several sports. That was Bo Jackson. So I'm pretty sure no matter where you fall in that debate, the other one was pretty good in this comparison here. Neither one of them had transcendent great seasons or anything like that. They're not going to be remembered as One of the 10 best Heisman seasons, period. There's a lot of merit to Fernando Mendoza. I just happen to think Diego Pavia was the most outstanding player in college football this year. Last I checked, that's the definition of the award. He was the leading rusher in seven of his 12 games and still had more passing yards than Fernando Mendoza did and played one fewer games. But people weren't paying attention, I'm telling you. Ironically. You know what? I'm not going to complain about it. I know a lot of the folks that have Heisman votes and how they watch the sport. Not all of them. There's a lot of folks who have Heisman votes. Some of them were glued to this every week, and they did their due diligence. And if you did that, I don't really care who you voted for because you did your job. A lot of people have votes and just didn't pay a whole lot of attention. And the reason I know that is because going into Conference championship Saturday, Diego Pavia was the favorite to win the award. And by the end of the Big Ten championship game, Fernando Mendoza was minus 3,000 to win the award.
- [62:16]
Jenna Kim Jones
And.
- [62:16]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
And so you may think to yourself, oh, dude, they must have beat Ohio State 55 to 19. He must have thrown for 500 yards. No, he had a pretty good game. They won the game. He was 15 of 23 for 222 yards, one touchdown, one pick. Took a big hit to start the game. But, like, does that really sound like the kind of performance that would have overwhelmingly tilted the scales? No. Unless people hadn't really been paying a whole lot of attention and just decided to cast their vote at the 11th hour with whatever the. The last shiny object they saw was. That's kind of how he won the award. I'm not saying he's not deserving of it. I'm just saying for anyone who's looking for an explanation about why the margin was so wide, like, this wasn't even close. That's why. So, yeah, man, I would have been a Diego Pavia guy. I would have voted for him. They don't give me a vote on the Heisman. I don't pay enough attention to the sport to get a vote. Am I salty about it? I'm salty about the concept of it a little bit. That's on you, Jesse. All right. FanDuel is the exclusive odds provider of this show. I was citing odds there that you could have found at FanDuel. You know, you could have bet Fernando Mendoza the morning of the Big Ten championship game and cashed in. He wasn't even the favorite. He was like a co favorite, but he wasn't the outright favorite to win the award. Well, that's in the past. They don't let you bet things that already happened. Very poor business model. But what they will let you do is they'll let you bet on the playoffs. And right now, there's the fancy token there. As of right now, 30% profit boost on College Football Playoff futures bets. So if you think you know who's going to win the whole thing, go bet it. They're going to give you a 30% profit boost. A lot of different odds and ends that you can bet over there. A lot of you don't bet. In which case, if you're curious, you could just go look at what the numbers are. You can kind of live voyeuristically as your buddies take all the risk, which is fine. I actually consider that one of the great American sports, watching your neighbor wager uncomfortable amounts of money while you just sit back and you win either way. But that's there right now. FanDuel, the exclusive odds provider of our.
- [64:24]
Jenna Kim Jones
Show, must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and present in D.C. first online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800-Gambler or visit fanduel.com rg call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatincut or visit MDG in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text hopeny in New York.
- [65:09]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
We wrap our show tonight with what has become a great December tradition around here. You'll notice we don't have a Christmas tree in the studio. It's not because we're anti Christmas. It's because we are cheap. But what we do have is we have Internet and we have an archive. Now. That means we can go back in the spring to all the bold predictions that you submitted to the show. And you did it under two conditions. Firstly, if you make a prediction that's bold enough that I give it a 9.5 or higher on the boldness scale and it hits, you get a chalice of supremacy. But the catch is you give us full right to trash you unmercifully if your bold prediction crashes and burns. Um, so we're here to do the latter, not the former tonight. First up, stat. Mat said Clemson, Penn State and LSU will be top three in the playoffs in that order. What did it end up being, Jesse? Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia. Was that number one, two, three? Yes. Okay, Clemson, Penn State and LSU in the preseason were number two, number four, and number nine. So this didn't sound crazy. Sure, there were some people who doubted Penn State, but it didn't sound crazy. But you also probably didn't think that they were going to go 7 and 5, 7 and 5 and 6 and 6. You probably didn't think that these teams would struggle to just make a bowl. They'd be closer to missing a bowl game than they would be to making the playoff. And at the very least you would think, all right, maybe one of them crashes and Burns, maybe two of them. But we're taking 12 teams in the playoff. All of these teams are preseason top 10. Surely one of them is going to make it. I mean, Clemson, all you gotta do is win the acc. Yeah. No, they all finished the season unranked. This was an abject disaster of a prediction. It got a 10 on the boldness scale, so it qualified. And you can see why. By the way, what did they have in common? What they having at Drew? Allergies, Cade Klubnick, Garrett Nussmeier, they all returned quarterbacks. And we saw just a complete stall on several quarterbacks this year in terms of their progression, development or alternate theory that we softly floated in the summer. Maybe they just were who they were. Turns out they were. Next up, we go to the Palmetto State. Lexington, South Carolina checked in and said South Carolina will have a top 10 offense, a top 15 defense, and they make the College Football Playoff. Oh, by the way, Lenora Sellers goes to New York. I don't know if Sellers went to New York. He's free to do what he whatever he wants to do in his free time, and he's had plenty of it in December because they went what would they go, Jesse? Four and eight? They missed a bowl game. Yeah, they went four and eight. And what really hurt was they were winless in Cocktober. And that cut me personally. So I took this season personal because Cocktober is supposed to be special, even if nothing else is. This is why missing the playoff was so tough for them last year. I've said this a few times recently. Alabama missed the playoff last year. Who cares? They're right back there. They're in it this year. Ole Miss, they barely missed out last year. Who cares? They're in South Carolina. Barely missed out last year. It hurt because this was always the risk. A sub.500 season is always in the cards. And as it turns out, the prediction was they were top 10 offense, top 15 defense. Survey says they were number 108 offensively and number 53 defensively. So in no way, shape, form or fashion did this prediction come remotely close to hitting. You got to award them no points and may God have mercy on their souls. At that point, that's all you can say. Move on to another conference. Kurt from Rexburg, Idaho. Beautiful this time of year. Kurt said three Big 12 teams will make the playoff and none will be Arizona State. On the surface, this looks like a terrible prediction, Kurt, because they only got one in. But you know what? We're not a surface based show. So we pull out the back hole, we dive back home and we dive beneath the surface. If this were not a live show, I would have them edit it out, but I can't. So we pulled out the old backhole and we dove beneath the surface. And what I found is, yeah, they only made one. You predicted three, but think about how close they came. Brigham Young finished 12th, Utah 15th, Arizona was 17th. So you needed three in. You got one. But two of them were on the bubble there at least. Also, you said Arizona State wouldn't be one of the three. Arizona State finished outside the top 25. So, Kurt, this was a 10 on the boldness scale and it didn't hit. But I kind of wanted to throw it in because I kind of wanted to give you like a low key hat tip on this. And even though the segment is called worst bold predictions, this was only a subpar bold prediction. So, see, I'm very generous. I understand. I understand the attitude one should have this time of year. I took it upon myself. I took it as a personal challenge to do exactly a 60 minute show. It's 8 o'.
- [70:28]
Jenna Kim Jones
Clock.
- [70:28]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Look at that. We'll be back Tuesday night. That will be when we'll just go full bracket prediction, we'll lay it all out. I will bear my soul as much as I'm raking some of you over the coals for your poor predictions. We all know how this is probably going to end for me, so you will get the last laugh as you usually do. For director Bradley, for producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate. Take care. Have a great start to your week. Stay warm and God bless.
- [71:08]
Jenna Kim Jones
Must be 21 and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and present in D.C. first online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or visit fanduel.com rg call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatincut or visit MDG in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text hopeny in New York.
- [71:53]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
What a matchup we got y'.
- [71:54]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
All.
- [71:55]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echo drum beat Everybody showing that school pride game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there.
- [72:15]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Mmm.
- [72:15]
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer
Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and in ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. And everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
- [72:39]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
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- [73:51]
Josh Pate
Is an iHeart podcast.
- [73:53]
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host)
Guaranteed Human.