Transcript
Josh Pate (0:00)
This is an iHeart podcast.
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host) (0:02)
Guaranteed Human.
Josh Pate (0:04)
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Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host) (0:17)
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Josh Pate (0:18)
Barbecue sauce.
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host) (0:19)
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Josh Pate (0:20)
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Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host) (0:31)
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IBM Executive (Arvind Krishna) (0:53)
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Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer (1:04)
What a matchup we got, y'.
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host) (1:05)
All.
Coca-Cola Advertiser/Announcer (1:05)
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echo drum beating, everybody showing that school pride game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and an ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going foreign.
Host/Analyst (likely Josh Pate or main host) (2:05)
Yeah, we don't talk a lot about Heisman on the show because I'm not a Heisman voter but I not angry about it at all, trust me. But I've got some theories on what happened with the Heisman issue. We're not going to leave the show with it, but just been workshopping a theory today. I'll see if you agree with me. We're jam packed high atop a frozen solid downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Sunday, December 14th, the year of our Lord. Yeah, it is the 14th, 2025 high of 22 in Nashville today. It's been miserable here it is that time. It is Sunday night. It is college football playoff prediction time. At least the first round games. Now on Tuesday night I'll do the full bracket but I'm going to do the games tonight because it will be very anticlimactic for the first round predictions if we did the bracket where you could already see where I'm, who I'm picking. So yeah, this is a very convoluted way of saying make sure you're also here Tuesday night. Now that'll be the last show we do of the week, by the way. Cause the playoffs start on Friday. The Michigan coaching search continues. There have been some statements put out today. There have been some rumors and we're just here to separate fact from possibly fact. Heisman. As I said, I've got some thoughts. We, of course are going to continue the age old December tradition of worst predictions in the history of the show. That's the name of the segment and we will do that at your expense, not mine. I'm the butt of the joke 11 months out of the year around here, but one month, the season of mercy as they call it in December. You people have to tote the load, not me. In reality, we do it together. Spokane, Washington is tuned in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Freeport, Florida, Elizabethtown, Pa. The drive to 1 million continues. Now, some may say, oh, you're a long way from a million subs. Yeah, but they were saying this time last year we were a long way away from 500,000 subs. And the haters are nowhere to be found now. So it's okay. It's a process. We're going to get it there and we're going to get it there with your help. So you and 10 of your friends make sure you are subscribed to the channel. Hey, we got a live appearance later in the week. You know, we did a live show a couple of weeks ago in Atlanta. We're going to be part of another live show. I'm just going to be the friends part. So it was like Pate stayed in Friends in Atlanta. Well, I'm going to be the and friends on this live show. I'll tell you about it in a little while. In the meantime, let's dive in. Let's dive into the College Football Playoff. It is six, five days away. Yeah, five days with kickoff. Miami at Texas A and M is the game that I want to break down first. Saturday noon Eastern Time, 11am local time, kickoff Eastern in College Station, Texas. We will be on hand for this game. We will have been in Norman the night before and I will be on hand with several friends of the program. Actually, whomst's identities will be made public as the week goes on. They're on the sidelines for this one. Let's just set the table for this because it's obviously the first playoff appearance for A and M. It's the first playoff appearance for Miami. Kyle Field. I don't care if they kick it off at 7:00am 7:00pm Going to be a factor here. A&M, seven and oh, at home this season, you may not have much appreciation for that and you may not respect their schedule this year. I don't really care. I've been at that place like last time. I think we were there. Jesse was at the Missouri game. Yeah, we were there. And they blew out Missouri. So Miami. Here's the funny thing about this. Miami went up to pit last game of the regular season. Remember, the kickoff temperature was in the low 30s and I was terrified for him and it turns out I shouldn't have been. Because they made easy work of Pitt and because Miami went and won a game in 30 degree weather, their reward is now playing a game in 70 degree weather. That's right. I've been checking the long range forecast here and many things will come into play, but weather will not. We're looking at low 70s and sunny at kickoff. So thank you, God. Look at God smiling down on us as only he can. Who is, who is the strength here? Well, both of them. So whose strength tops the other's strength? Let's dive into this. Miami profiles as the best run defense that A and M has seen this year. I believe that. All right, so we have the paper here. That's what the paper says. I do believe that to be the case. A and M top 25 run offense. It is a critical part obviously of their offensive game plan. As it is most teams outside of Alabama in this playoff, ironically, Alabama and Oklahoma are the two teams in the playoff that don't run the ball very well. They face each other in round one. Everybody else gives it the good old college try to run the ball. A and M especially. So. So Miami can get after you. Now Miami can get after the passer as well. But really, when you look at this, okay, from a standard run profile perspective, Miami figures to really limit you. But then you think to yourself, hmm, but first off, have they seen a rushing attack like A and M's at its best? Remains to be seen. Maybe not. And then part B is. Doesn't A and M also possess the ability to run the ball at the quarterback position? Yes, they do. Marcel Reed, now he doesn't do it every game, but he'll just randomly pop a 40 yard run on you. I'll just add this note. I think the quarterback run being an integral part of A and M success here is pretty unlikely. It's a huge hinge point. But I'll tell you why I think it's unlikely. We were diving into this earlier today. Miami has faced their fair share of mobile quarterbacks this year. This is a post it popper because I had to write it on a post it. Byron Brown, Kevin Jennings, DJ Lagway, Tommy Castellanos and Kyron Drones. Miami faced all of them this year. Out of those five mobile quarterbacks, would you like to guess how many combined rushing yards those quarterbacks had against Miami? That would be 74. Not average, 74 combined rushing yards. So unless Marcel Reed and Texas A and M completely invert that stat category, I don't expect him to do a ton of damage with his legs. What they could do is a ton of damage on the ground, but that would also have to invert the stat profile and that I expect Miami to carry into this game. It's a huge hinge point because if A and M can run the ball effectively, it opens up the entire offense. And I'm not saying if they don't run the ball effectively, they can't. I just think you get where I'm going there. If they can't, it just falls on Marcel Reed's arm. So if they crack the code, that's great and it helps Marcel Reed and it gets him in second, manageable, third and short. The entire playbook is at their disposal. But if it's a lot of obvious passing downs. We all watched Marcel Reed struggle at times with interceptions. In fact, three of his final five games of the regular season, he had multiple interceptions. So that's one side of the equation. But I think it profiles the same way on the other side of the equation. A and M's probably way more likely to shut down Miami's ground game than Miami is to totally shut down A and M's. Because A and M specializes in running the ball. Miami's 77th in the country in rushing offense. So that's where Carson Beck walks into the room. And I think Carson Beck started the season and they won the Notre Dame game. Then they had some games where why aren't they pushing the ball down the field more? Is he hurt? Wow. He just doesn't look special. And then people kind of gave up on him. But if you watched him in his final three games, 81% completion percentage guy, he was averaging nearly 300 yards per game, passing 10 to one touchdown to INT ratio. So Carson Beckman played his best ball down the stretch and he's going to face a top 10 pressure rate defense here. Their number one are the Texas A and M Aggies in sacks per game. So I leave it up to a veteran quarterback to be able to manage, move around in the pocket a little bit, buy himself a little bit of extra time. A lot of it's just on that Miami offensive line. And this is where going on the road's real tough because you do not play in in environments like this in the acc. You don't play in many of them like this anywhere. So again, 11am kickoff, 11pm kickoff, whatever. It's going to be tough for him. They're going to make it really tough for him there, especially if Miami is not able to start fast and grab an early lead. So what I'll watch especially is not Ken Carson Beck make the place. He'll make some plays here. They'll move the chains here. How much does Miami have to focus their passing attack on Malachi Toney? Really good player, really good wide receiver there. So much so that he's had more production than the next two behind him have at Miami. And that is notable because Texas A and M, another paper popper to watch here. They have held wide receiver ones under 40 yards receiving half a dozen times this year. Now you hadn't faced half a dozen Malachi Tonys would be my retort if I were the Miami sports and information department of the program and they would be right about that. That's why it's a prediction. That's why it remains to be seen. But I think it does come down to quarterbacks under pressure. In all seriousness, as I said, Marcel Reed, if he is part of a balanced attack and if they're running the ball and he's just kind of working off that in a complimentary fashion, great game on. But if not, like I said, three of his final five games, multiple ints. The thing I love about Texas A and M, one of the sort of big personnel edges here is I think they've got a deeper and more versatile group of weaponry offensively. Like, they don't have to focus in on one guy as much as Miami does Malachi Toney. But also like even within that, A and M was banged up at the skill positions, as was pretty much every other team towards the end of the year. So these two to three weeks off, what does it do in terms of freshness? Like, does Mario Craver come out in this game looking like he shot out of a cannon? Because that's going to happen case by case with some of these teams. So as you look at the way the different ways rather this game could go, I think if, if you have a game where they kind of start off feeling each other out and you know you got a ball that goes off a DB's fingertips and you're breathing this sigh of relief, like, oh, man, and we're not running the ball all that great. And we just put it in the air. That could have been disastrous. If that kind of stuff happens early, I think the game could grind to a halt. I think scoring in the game could grind to a halt. And I think no matter what with Miami, the big question as it goes on, like, once you feel it out, once your guys settle in, and there will be a period of that for Miami offensively, how bold is Shannon Dawson willing to get here? Because Miami trusts their defense to win this game. Texas did and Miami will. Is that the way the game starts to play out? Because Miami's defense, they're really good at preventing cat buster plays. Those are plays of 40 plus and A&M is 79th in explosive plays, 88th in cat busters defensively. So you can pop them. That's one of the big statistical edges Miami has. You've typically had to drive the field and several plays and extend the drive and whatnot to score on Miami. A and M will give up explosive plays here, but that's given that Carson Beck can stretch the field. That's given that guys other than Malachi Tony step up, and that's given Shannon Dawson feels like his guy has enough time to where they can dial it up. So let's take a look at what the model thinks on this game. FanDuel's got Texas A and M minus three and a half. Right now. The model is a little bit higher on Texas A and M. We got Texas a and M -5 and a half. Neither of these big opening round matchups I have a great feel on. So I was very close to picking Miami outright earlier today, but then I talked myself over to. I think if there's a more consistent ground game here, it's likely to be A and M. So, you know, if I've got these other variables, I'll lean on the more dependable ground game. But then I taught myself off that and I said, man, I don't know if anyone's going to dependably run the ball on Miami. So then I thought about home field and what it can mean. So I don't really have a strong feel on the game. Therefore, I'll just ride the model. I'll have fun watching it there, as we all will. I'll take Texas A and M to winning cover and we're not betting a dime on it. No strong feel whatsoever. I will say it's crazy that Ohio State sitting there and they're awaiting the winner of this game. And if it's A and M, they could have to play, they get to slash, have to play them in Arlington. I think that's what happened last year though, isn't it Jesse? Ohio State had to play Texas in Texas. So no matter what, you're, you're playing a really, really good team here and you're going to play them in Dallas. We will be on hand for this one, courtesy of Quick Trip. Quick Trip fuels us everywhere we go. The Fall Don't Lie tour has been fueled all season long by kwiktrip. Myself personally, from just a pure high unleaded caffeine intake standpoint, I've been fueled by KWIK Trip all year. The KwikTrip cold brew on tap. I'm ready to call it one of the top five most important inventions in American history and one of the top two or three most important inventions in my lifetime. So I hope I haven't been unclear there. And Quick Trip will fuel us out to Norman, Oklahoma and then down to College Station this weekend. Is anyone else out there making that trek? I know that's not the easiest thing to pull off, but you know, I 35 if you drive it late enough at night can be kind of fun. During the day, nightmare. But at night can be kind of fun. The Fall Don't Lie T shirts by the way, for both of these games available@pacestatematerial.com all right, that piece of paper out of the way. I think I had like four whale breeches there. Jesse by the way, if you really, really pay close attention to the show, you'll notice that there are some wrinkles in the white T shirt tonight. It's very uncharacteristic. I am a very, very high level dresser and my palette from a food standpoint may be unrefined, but my fashion palette is second to none. So you know that something's wrong if the white T shirt is wrinkled. Well, it's because it is my second string T shirt. Because foolishly, my T shirt provider, soon to be my former T shirt provider, shipped me some new T shirts today and I did not take them out of the pack. I just threw the pack in the car, drove to the office and 15 minutes before showtime started to change and realized they had shipped me what equated to white garbage bags. That is a 6 XL white tee. If you're listening on podcast. Thank you. I would prefer no one see this, but I figured I had to address the wrinkles in the backup T shirt. That's because this is a backup T shirt because I was not walking on air looking like that. Imagine the accumulation of shirt in the chair here. I would have looked like I was sitting in a snow drift. It's terrible. So, on a slightly related note, I am now in the market for a new white T shirt provider because that I can't. I've got to take it as disrespectful if I don't know any better. And I don't. So I hope you're listening out there. Whom Stiver, whomstever could answer my call as I throw it out into the market. We don't even have an official shirt provider of the show anyway, so probably about time we do that.