Josh Pate's College Football Show

Episode: CFP Predictions + Michigan Coaching Search & Heisman Reaction
Date: December 15, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Josh Pate delivers a jam-packed breakdown of the upcoming College Football Playoff (CFP) first round matchups, dives deep into Michigan’s ongoing coaching search, and reacts to this season’s Heisman Trophy outcome. With his usual blend of wit, humor, and detailed analysis, Pate shares insider intel, key stats, and predictions, offering listeners a comprehensive look at the state of college football heading into the playoff weekend.

Key Segments & Insights

1. CFP First-Round Preview & Predictions

[02:05 – 21:10 | 46:18 – 54:58]

Miami at Texas A&M

[02:55 – 17:33]

• Context: Both teams make their first CFP appearance; the game will be played at Kyle Field, College Station, Texas.
• A&M Home Advantage: A&M goes 7–0 at home this season. Pate emphasizes the impact of the home field:
  • “Kyle Field… is going to be a factor here. A&M, seven and oh, at home this season… I’ve been at that place.”
• Matchup Breakdown:
  • Miami Run Defense vs. A&M Run Offense: Miami is labeled the best run defense A&M has seen this year, facing elite mobile QBs and allowing only 74 combined rushing yards to five such QBs.
    • “So unless Marcel Reed and Texas A&M completely invert that stat category, I don't expect him to do a ton of damage with his legs.” [06:16]
  • Miami Offense/Carson Beck Factor: Beck has rebounded late season, slicing through defenses with an 81% completion rate in his last three games.
  • A&M Defensive Strength: Known for high pressure and sacks; can stymie Miami’s less potent ground game.
  • Key Players: Miami’s Malachi Toney gets outsized attention, but A&M has contained “WR1s” all year.
• Prediction Logic: Pate walks through supporting points for both sides, ultimately leaning on “the more dependable ground game” as a tiebreaker (A&M).
  • Notable Quote: “Neither of these big opening round matchups I have a great feel on… so I’ll just ride the model.” [15:00]
• Pick: Texas A&M to win and cover, but “not betting a dime on it.” [16:45]

Alabama at Oklahoma

[21:10 – 42:40]

• Rematch Factor: The teams met a month ago in Tuscaloosa (OU upset Bama 23–21 despite being heavily outgained).
• Turnover Battle:
  • “Oklahoma went into Tuscaloosa knowing, we're really limited offensively and we're going to have to play a complimentary game... and they did it.” [22:45]
• Alabama Offensive Health:
  • Ty Simpson’s performance and offensive line health (notably center Parker Brailsford) heavily scrutinized.
• Oklahoma Offense:
  • Mattier's limited production (under 225 yards passing in 5 of last 6 games), but had a 300-yard game vs. LSU.
• Field Position Demon:
  • “The field position thing… I think is the most important part of this.” Bama’s losses tied to never getting good field position. [27:54]
• Prediction: Model has Bama -2.5; Pate “instinct is to take Alabama… I actually am going to pick Oklahoma to win the game because I’ve watched Alabama play this team twice... and I’m starting to think that maybe it’s not so randomized.” [31:15]

Tulane vs. Ole Miss & James Madison vs. Oregon

[46:18 – 54:58]

• Big Spreads, Slim Hope:
  • Both games feature G5 underdogs facing high-powered favorites; methodical breakdown on how upsets could theoretically happen, but odds and analysis heavily favor favorites.
• Tulane at Ole Miss:
  • “Number three passing offense in the country against number 124 pass D. Number three explosive pass plays. Number 128… see how it goes downhill?” [46:56]
  • Pick: Ole Miss to “win and cover.”
• James Madison at Oregon:
  • “You are a 21 and a half point dog… you're facing the top 10 run defense.” [52:35]
  • Pick: Oregon to win and cover, “game’s over at halftime and they're resting starters in the second half.”

2. Michigan Coaching Search

[42:40 – 46:18]

• Situation Update:
  • No consensus favorite; various candidates have “pockets of support.”
• Kalyn DeBoer Watch:
  • “He said, ‘I have not spoken with and have no interest in speaking with anyone else about any other job.’” [39:14]
  • Pate firmly believes DeBoer stays at Alabama: “I don’t think Kalyn DeBoer is going anywhere. Feel pretty good about our sourcing on that.” [40:16]
• Kenny Dillingham (Arizona State):
  • Pate’s preferred candidate for Michigan, citing “quarterback development... energy and passion...” [41:23]
  • Arizona State fans bristle at the idea; Pate clarifies he’s not rooting for poaching but is assessing fit and opportunity.
• Search Structure:
  • Unlike Penn State’s process, Michigan using search firm + committee, willing to wait for the right candidate past this playoff round.
• Notable Moment:
  • “Ryan Day is not a candidate for the Michigan job… I’m going to rule Ryan Day out from Michigan. And that’s breaking on this show.” [42:11]

3. Heisman Reaction

[54:58 – 62:15]

• Theme:
  • Voter apathy and lack of a breakout superstar led to “best player on best team” dynamic.
  • “I just don’t think a lot of people paid attention to the Heisman…they just kind of looked around and said, well, no one’s really standing out. Let’s just make our decision on conference championship Saturday.” [57:23]
• Player Debates:
  • Diego Pavia (New Mexico State) vs. Fernando Mendoza (Michigan):
    • Pate’s stance: “I believe Diego Pavia should have won this award. I would have voted for him. I don’t have to speak ill of Fernando Mendoza to do that.” [58:54]
    • On Mendoza: “The only vibe check needed on Fernando Mendoza is the first play of the Big Ten championship game where he was… basically in a car crash.” [59:51]
    • Stat rundown: “He was 15 of 23 for 222 yards, one touchdown, one pick. Took a big hit to start the game. But, like, does that really sound like the kind of performance that would have overwhelmingly tilted the scales? No.” [62:16]
• Underlying Point:
  • “A lot of people have votes and just didn’t pay a whole lot of attention.” [61:19]

4. Boldest (and Worst) Predictions – Fan Submissions

[65:08 – 70:27]

• Annual Tradition:
  • Reviewing fan bold predictions submitted last spring—as promised, those that crashed and burned get roasted.
• Highlights:
  • Clemson, Penn State, LSU as Playoff Top 3:
    • “Didn’t sound crazy… you probably didn’t think they’d go 7 and 5, 7 and 5, and 6 and 6... All finished unranked. This was an abject disaster of a prediction.” [65:44]
  • South Carolina Playoff & Heisman Sleeper:
    • “Survey says: 108th offense, 53rd defense… in no way, shape, form or fashion did this prediction come remotely close…” [67:59]
  • Three Big 12 Playoff Teams:
    • “You needed three in. You got one. But two of them were on the bubble… I kind of wanted to give you like a low key hat tip on this.” [69:29]

Notable Quotes

• “If A&M can run the ball effectively, it opens up the entire offense… But if it’s a lot of obvious passing downs… Marcel Reed struggle at times with interceptions.” — Josh Pate [08:27]
• “The thing I love about Texas A&M… I think they’ve got a deeper and more versatile group of weaponry offensively.” [10:48]
• “Oklahoma put on a clinic… just teach tape stuff from Oklahoma’s defense on how to punch the ball out.” [25:47]
• “My instinct is to take Alabama in this game. I’ve got Alabama winning the national title… but I actually am going to pick Oklahoma to win the game because I’ve watched Alabama play this team twice…” [31:15]
• “Kalyn DeBoer… I do believe that he’ll be at Alabama this Friday and well beyond this Friday, no matter what the outcome of that game is.” [40:16]
• “Ryan Day is not a candidate for the Michigan job… that’s breaking on this show.” [42:11]
• “I believe Diego Pavia should have won this award. I would have voted for him.” [58:54]
• “A lot of people have votes and just didn’t pay a whole lot of attention.” [61:19]
• “All finished the season unranked. This was an abject disaster of a prediction.” (On the bold prediction of Clemson, Penn State, LSU finishing as playoff top three) [65:44]

Tone & Style Notes

• Pate’s tone remains conversational, occasionally self-deprecating, and laced with humor (“season of mercy… this month you have to tote the load, not me” [03:14]; “I would have looked like I was sitting in a snow drift” [16:04]).
• Uses listener engagement and inside jokes (“I prefer no one see this” [16:04], “as breaking on this show” [42:11]).
• Emphasizes not just what happened but why, blending stats, insider notes, and practical insight.

Quick Timestamp Reference

• CFP First-Round Analysis: 02:05 – 21:10
• Oklahoma vs. Alabama Deep Dive: 21:10 – 42:40
• Michigan Coaching Search: 42:40 – 46:18
• Ole Miss, Oregon Blowout Watch: 46:18 – 54:58
• Heisman Breakdown: 54:58 – 62:15
• Bold Predictions Recap: 65:08 – 70:27

Conclusion

Josh Pate offers an engaging, stats-driven analysis of the CFP, the Michigan coaching saga, and the Heisman, rooting the show in equal parts humor, expertise, and real-time fan interaction. For listeners who missed the episode, this breakdown captures all of the key insights, tone, and memorable moments as the playoff storm gathers.