← Josh Pate's College Football Show
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Josh Pate
And doug there's nowhere i wouldn't.
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Josh Pate
Game boom forty two you're going down.
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Doug oh yeah your price on car insurance when you customize and save is.
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Josh Pate
Going down hey limu what are you.
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Josh Pate
Com liberty liberty liberty liberty very simple guy i don't think people owe me a whole lot per se but i i gotta slam the pin down here on this sunday night december twenty eighth the year of our lord twenty twenty five i really do think they owe me i think they owe you i think they owe hashtag us another round of home playoff games because you know dan lanning he may be lying through his teeth that he thinks he belongs in lubbock texas this week but i'm not he belongs in lubbock texas this week the oregon ducks should have to be playing on the road and in lubbock texas you think i want to see oregon basically fly to johannesburg to play a second round playoff game in miami where where by the way if they like fulfill their destiny here national championship wise they'll go again in a couple of weeks no we don't want to see that i would love to see mario cristobal have to march himself up to columbus ohio but we don't live in a perfect world i haven't been elected commissioner quite yet we are however we're back post christmas and we're jam packed and we're high atop a very blustery downtown nashville tennessee and it is prediction night and i got to tell you it's one of the hardest things i've ever had to do in my life even up until just seven minutes ago there is still one game that i'm undecided on which begs the question if we're live right now and we are what are we going to do well we're going to call it in the ring a la ric flair in the eighties we're just going to call it in the ring we're going to see where the predictions go dabo swinney went seven and six with a custom built team and we will discuss that tonight the pinstripe bowl runners up clemson tigers just one of many sentences phrases i didn't expect to be using here in december but that's what college football has done to us this year i'm going to answer a viewer question about him the portal is about to go completely and utterly berserk or is it you know we learned our lesson a couple of springs ago don't speak in definitive terms about the portal because we're trying to apply logic to an illogical thing a being if you will the transfer portal all caps tnp and someone asked me about the best hire pound for pound the best hire this cycle so who is that is that link kiffin is that john sumrall is that james franklin could it be matt campbell it am i biased absolutely i am but then again look look what the name of the show is so we can afford to be that way tonight they're watching us in anderson south carolina denver colorado knoxville tennessee fort worth texas a brief favor if i may very brief and it gets a little redundant so i'm not going to spend a whole lot of time on it i would just humbly but persistently beg you to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already that's it just support support local college football national show but support us nonetheless it's prediction night ladies and gentlemen we're trying to figure out how to go four and oh and i have got a lot of pressure on me tonight i've made some statements about these teams i picked alabama to win the national title in the summer and then they were kind of very very shaky on their final approach and then i bailed and i picked ohio state to win it all and now i find myself smack dab in the middle of a moral dilemma because i really love what miami's looked like and all the while i was so gung ho on joey mcguire and texas tech all the while sitting there post halloween saying you know oregon's the team to watch out for i am in a bad bad way emotionally mentally spiritually spiritually i feel okay but i don't god's not making these picks for me i wish he would but i don't think he's going to tonight and so i've got to use the good solid head he put on my shoulders to try and do it myself maybe a little help from jesse mainly with the graphics so let's dive into the show tonight these games are put in totally random order texas tech oregon new year's day it will not even be noon in fact it'll be nine am pacific time when this game kicks off but it will be noon eastern in the orange bowl down in miami these are the number one and number two explosive play offenses in america and the over under is fifty two and a half which means they can play fairly solid defense as well you really got to trust your eyes on texas tech there are a couple of conferences this year where their stat profiles are kind of in a silo i'm not doing a lot of complicated data speak because i don't speak that language but the acc and the sec they got a lot of crossover out of conference results that kind of help contextualize the conferences if you will a team like texas tech doesn't have that texas tech played oregon state and that was basically it as they're out of conference competition ironically these two teams played oregon state in back to back weeks they beat them by about the same margin the big ten likewise like if you're trying to look at the big ten's profile what's their most impressive out of conference win it's ohio state texas the next one's like illinois duke which doesn't mean anything the big ten could be the greatest conference on the face of the earth the big twelve could be right there with them we just don't know because their entire stat profile has been built mainly off of in conference play so with texas tech you got to trust your eyes what do the eyes tell you about texas tech well my eyes tell me they're really good because not only have they beaten the competition but they've pretty thoroughly splattered the competition this year but there's always that one little pesky voice of doubt in the back of your mind that says but it was all against big twelve teams yes yes that is accurate however maybe the big twelve is okay and also maybe the fact that it wasn't just a bunch of three and seven point wins but rather twenty two plus point wins maybe that means a lot maybe it means a little yeah so trust your eyes with texas tech i've seen him in person i've watched him several times you've watched them several times they're a good team they're a good team the number on this game is oregon minus two and a half oregon i think still has room between wherever their head is and wherever the ceiling is they're pretty unique in that way partly because of injury partly because i always believe this was going to be a team that scaled late because of new pieces because of young pieces also because i think that's the way they've built the team they've structured their entire season so we have to ask ourselves same thing we got out of ohio state last year if any team is to do that in the playoffs is it oregon do they just rev the engine and have that potential i think they do it's not a guarantee they're going to do it though so here's what i think about the game oregon has to find out and what they have to find out is whether this paper nope that's two pieces hold on whether this paper right here is telling the truth because on this piece of paper that i hold in my hand it says texas tech has the number one run defense in america can you believe that i can i've watched them all year does oregon believe that i'm sure they believe they're pretty good do they fear them forget that do they look at them and really say yeah we might as well not even try of course not so watch texas tech all year the team that had the most success on the ground against them was kansas state and that was one hundred twenty six yards i believe so no one ran it effectively on them now here's where that whole trust your eyes thing comes into play cause there is one scenario where of course texas tech is just that good and you're not running it on them there's another scenario where there's a certain caliber of athlete at tailback there's a certain caliber of athlete along the offensive lines in the big twelve that oregon is a little bit better than a little bit more multiple than a little bit more dynamic than maybe there's a certain way texas tech plays the run that translates very well against big twelve teams and big twelve personnel that maybe could get exposed against oregon at the very least you got to find out you got to find out because if you can't run the ball you're not really winning many games if you're oregon oregon thinks they can run it on anyone sometimes they do most times they do occasionally they don't indiana throttled them down pretty good but it's the most important facet of this game to me i could talk another thirty minutes about it but really the padlock stats for oregon outside of turnover margin the padillac stat to me is going to be a lot of rushing efficiency based stats for the oregon ducks oregon consequently i hate doing this jesse just go ahead and text joey mcguire just let him know what i'm going to do i already made this bet so i can't i can't go back on this technically i could but i'm not going to that would be unethical i bet oregon over one hundred and forty two rush yards it's my favorite prop of the entire playoff quarterfinal round there i did it to myself if you know my theory on betting against texas tech it's very much in play here so but i want to be in the nature in the spirit of being honest i'm just telling you i hammered that thing consequently i think it's a one hundred forty four now because of what my six hundred did to it so if oregon does hit a brick wall if my bet flames out and oregon's get like sixty three total yards on on thirty carries then bad news bad news for oregon obviously but if they do hit a brick wall that is texas tech's sweet spot david bailey romello height all these dudes they brought in via the portal and joey mcguire was on this very show in the spring talking about him and then everything that they hoped would come to pass came to pass top ten pressure rate team in the country they lead the country in takeaways why is that cause teams rarely get to have a balanced approach offensively against texas tech because teams are rarely in the lead or even tied with texas tech therefore they got themselves in several situations where they could just pin their ears back and they ate pretty heartily this year number ten defense in third down conversion rate as well so it's just tough to sustain drives against them and if you're not balanced in your play calling and that's because either you can't or you're in a situation where you're unable to yeah every every series that texas tech has go that way it starts to validate them a little bit more and a little bit more and a little bit more and then conversely if you think about oregon think about the way their season went i don't know if you remember how you felt when watching the oregon indiana game but i do because i thought oregon would handle indiana and i was very wrong about that and the more and more that game went on in the second half the more and more i realized i've made a huge mistake i have made a monumental mistake now in my case that means i have to go on my show the next night and own it some of you get to hide i didn't that was not a good week for me and let's say i pick oregon to win this game i already picked them to go over one hundred and forty two rushing yards as soon as the door starts to get slammed in their face repeatedly trying to run the ball and as soon as texas tech is getting after dante moore on third down series after series not only does texas tech start validating everything they believe about themselves but you also have that sense of doubt that you felt when you watched the indiana game at least i would now i'm not playing for oregon so maybe it's irrelevant for them i'm just trying to map out how i would feel feel how as this game unfolded but i'll tell you the opposite is true as well because if oregon starts ripping off some chunk runs early in this game you know they can throw the ball as well so you know it's not like they're they're solely dependent they're not alabama they're not dependent on one thing disproportionately working out cause they can't really do the other thing well then jesse they told us they weren't going to blow the train horns during the show oh they didn't tell us that okay well you know we are the freights for a reason anyway the opposite is true as well because just imagine with me close your eyes unless you're driving close your eyes and let's picture this game late first quarter and oregon's already got a couple of runs of twelve plus yards and you're saying to yourself oh well maybe maybe that paper was lying to me a little bit and then maybe there's a little bit of doubt because what texas tech hasn't been is pressed virtually all year they lost that arizona state game and that was with the backup quarterback and outside of that even even arizona state didn't run the ball on them so even in their loss no one ran the ball on them if oregon starts to run the ball on them you kind of start to wonder man maybe we were a product of the big twelve and then oregon starts to think maybe we are peaking at the right time so you know there's a lot of psychology that goes into that which is just a fancy way of saying i don't feel like pulling a grease board down here and going dan orlovsky on you so i'm just going to use the word psychology instead this could be where the game turns though the whole the whole game script approach because there's a very familiar game script that texas tech has just been able to follow all year and if if the aforementioned scenario starts to unfold it doesn't mean texas tech can't win there's certainly a world world here where oregon runs it for one hundred and sixty and texas tech still wins it's just that they have to win in an unfamiliar way well they can do that but dante moore and oregon's wide receivers versus texas tech's pass defense just fascinating just fascinated to see it because that's another one of the areas where all due respect to the teams that texas tech has faced i don't think they saw skill players like that in totality there may have been one or one or one here and there but i don't think they saw a set of them like that and i don't even know if evan stewart's going to play in this game if he does wonderful that's a boost for oregon but even if he doesn't texas tech has not faced the top thirty five passing offense and while statistically oregon is not a top thirty five passing offense there are not thirty five better passing offenses in the country than oregon i don't know how better to describe that or explain that than the way i just did so what if texas tech creases oregon on the ground you know that's a that's yet another way that's yet another angle to think about for all the talk here so far about what if oregon finds a disproportionate amount of success on the ground hey that'd be notable you know what else would be notable what if cameron dickey and jacoby williams just start ripping off explosive runs of their own each of them averaged five and a half yards per attempt you can run on oregon not easily but they can run it on oregon as well that is that is the modus operandi for both of these teams that's how they win so if oregon's going to win that's how they're going to do it but don't think for a second you couldn't get to the end of the first quarter and texas tech doesn't already have eighty eight on the board on the ground as well intangibles very very important in every football game especially in playoff games doubly especially when you got one team that's rested and on a buy and they're both playing on a neutral site i can't help but keep going back to the idea that everything's new here for texas tech they're a very untested team but i say that in a very specific way they're untested when it comes to being in dogfights in the fourth quarter they've been tested but just in a much different way the test for them was in a conference full of rosters that really really rely on returning production and culture togetherness guys have played multiple years together texas tech's challenge was to throw a new team together new coordinators as well don't forget about that so there was staff churn there was roster churn and you may think to yourself oh yeah big deal what's the challenge you just went out and got a whole bunch of players well that that happens a lot a lot of places did that this year and didn't win texas tech did it and won so everything joey said when he came on the show in the spring about how you're going to see what i'm talking about this is him talking now not me he said you're going to see what i'm talking about yeah we went and got a bunch of basic free agents yeah we went and portal a lot of guys in here but i promise you this is the best building i've been in we really really believe in the culture we've got here we really believe in the team dynamic we've built well he was right he was right so how does that manifest itself if oregon's up by three and you need a drive with five minutes to go because that's a spot you just hadn't been in and it's a spot you may very well find yourself in here the staff churn at oregon's a real thing i don't know how to quantify the value here but this is not nothing will stein is the new head coach in kentucky but he is sticking around throughout the duration of the playoffs taj lupuy is the new head coach at cal he is sticking around through the duration of the playoffs we saw mike elko and a and m struggle with this it's a new concept it's not a new concept that coaches take jobs and stick around it's a new concept that they're taking new jobs oh and by the way the portal is opening in about five days and so not only do you have to have your staff together like you're off and running maybe while your team is still playing like that's a new dynamic not the least of which of your concerns include staffing and the fact that you may be taking guys out of the very building you're leaving yeah so with all that in mind let's take a look what the model thinks fanduel right now has oregon minus two and a half i have believed the entire season that we are building towards a spot where oregon revs the engine a little bit when they get to the playoffs it's an added benefit that they're getting some players back i simply believe oregon is a better football team and they're going to rev the engine here a little bit what i do not believe is that this is any kind of mismatch or anything like that i think oregon's going to win because i think they'll have a little more success on the ground than people are anticipating that's it four quarter game no knock on texas tech point spread is what it is for a reason but i'm going to take oregon to winning cover that was respectful i think look you guys whether you're in lubbock or eugene you got a long way to drive if you're going to this game i would recommend getting on the road approximately now and stop at every quick trip you possibly can i know i did this past weekend let's just see quick review i stopped at one in montgomery shout out bradley i stopped at one in saraland which was not documented online but it happened i stopped at one in theodore alabama also either biloxi or ocean springs mississippi so yes i was a frequent visitor at kwik trip cold brew on tap every single time and that could be you that doesn't just have to be me that could be you and it frequently is because i get evidence of it pretty much every hour submitted by you guys and sometimes i retweet it and kwiktrip gives you free gas it's a very very it's it's a very beneficial relationship i would say for us all we appreciate kwiktrip they are the presenting partner of the show they have their stickers plastered all over the place one of the big projects that i've been talking to quick trip joe about bradley i know i don't normally tell you to do this if you take the other side camera for just a second i've been talking to quick trip joe about how we can take a cold brew on tap machine just the top of it and just install it over here and c brew doesn't even have to come out of it per se i'm not sure functionally how that would serve a purpose during the show but i mean you know we got a little snowman over there we got a football we got a couple of chow like that's great i'd rather just have an entire cold brew station and i've said this to him off the record and you know it hasn't gotten much traction so i really think a public pressure campaign is one of my priority items entering twenty twenty six we have to pressure kwiktrip into installing a cold brew on tap station in the studio okay and at that point our balls are in their court all right let's roll on let's continue to pick these games appreciate you guys joining us live by the way someone dropped a super chat bradley you can have that nineteen dollars ninety nine cents yeah i just appreciate you guys watching live so sometimes i get a little zoned in and i don't look at the screen over there also a huge shout out a huge shout out i'm fully stocked up you'll notice that i have not complained a single time have not complained about dried out lips that's because i complained on the last show and close personal friends of the program over at pout boutique in columbia south carolina shipped me an entire box of product so i got several ladies and me that received those boxes of product for the new year and three lip balms included in there with a personalized note that i will never have to worry about dry lips on the show again so to diana and all the girls at pout i appreciate it first ever facial that i received jesse first ever facial was at pout in columbia south carolina holly row came in right after me it was a magical time and we'll absolutely do it again if.
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Josh Pate
Limu emu and doug here we have the limu emu in its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with liberty mutual fascinating it's accompanied by his.
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Josh Pate
The camera they see us only pay for what you need at libertymutual dot com liberty liberty liberty liberty savings very underwritten by liberty mutual insurance company and.
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Josh Pate
All right let's continue alabama versus indiana rose bowl thursday new year's day four pm eastern time the weather is going to be horrible for this game i hate to be the bearer of bad news this is like joel klatt's worst nightmare klatt's one of the rose bowl truthers i rarely see him without rose bowl paraphernalia on his on his shirt or on his hat and klatt's one of the guys who thinks that the national championship should be played at the rose bowl i've never pushed back hard on it i'm kind of indifferent on that but this is a nightmare scenario for joel klatt because we we've got the potential for flooding rains in southern california and in pasadena during rose bowl week i don't even know when they're going to paint the field but that's not my concern what is my concern is that i think the best three wins of the season were put up by these two teams give me at georgia for alabama give me at oregon and against ohio state for indiana you find me better wins than that no don't don't bother you can't so here's the question this has always been the question for alabama can a one dimensional offense survive in the college football playoff and that is where we begin the preview for this game the game to me profiles very similarly to alabama oklahoma version one notice what i didn't say there what i didn't say is indiana reminds me of oklahoma no no no much better team than oklahoma when you're looking at matchups specifically when you're looking at how alabama matches up with fill in the blank in this case indiana it reminds me of how that bama oklahoma game profile bama can't run it indiana doesn't allow the run to begin with you look at it and you say that's normally a crowbar in the bicycle spokes indiana's run defense just like oklahoma's run defense that's normally a crowbar in the bicyc spokes in a weird kind of way the fact that alabama hasn't been dependent on the run because it's non existent to begin with in some strange way benefits them because if you take the run away from alabama they look around and say huh feels about feels about normal all right let's throw the ball a million times to win and then the tightrope walk commences and if alabama completes a precision based tightrope walk that is if ty simpson is given time and he makes good decisions and they move the chains on third down they can beat you and put up forty two rushing yards in the process all that stuff has to go right so that was the oklahoma game the first time around and to an extent the second time around as well it's just they kind of waited until midway through the second quarter to crank it up the second time around but that's kind of what's got to happen against indiana now i really do wonder like they get jam miller back and kevin riley's back which is a little different skill set i don't doubt ryan grubb's going to try and run the ball they handed the ball off to jeremy bernard last game i think i saw so i don't doubt that they'll try and do it at the very least you have to maintain some semblance of commitment to it otherwise defenses just watch you truly become one dimensional and then you're kind of cooked i remember though both times in those oklahoma games ty simpson had a fair amount of success the first game came with turnovers mixed in and alabama lost the second time not as many yards through the air but plenty enough and kind of found his groove late they didn't turn the ball over and they won which is kind of how i expect this game to go so how fine can alabama execute the tightrope walk because unlike any other team they've played this year maybe besides georgia in the sec championship game this team makes you earn every bit of it indiana makes you earn everything everything nothing's given to you nothing's handed to you there aren't very many busts with indiana so then the follow up is how does indiana just own the game i mean they're favored by six and a half it's a really really big number especially when you consider there's probably a little bit of a premium baked in with alabama you know that whole dallas cowboy effect on point spreads so it's not it doesn't go without noting that indiana is a six and a half point favorite here even with all those dynamics baked in so with that in mind you got to think man there could be some scenarios here where indiana just owns this game most people i've seen picking the game are picking indiana well why well probably because they've watched them dominate all year or they've watched them be pretty thorough in their effort all year alabama's been hot cold up down very very recently in your mind you watched alabama get just completely and totally shut down against georgia and you watched the oklahoma game essentially look like the fifth quarter of the georgia game before alabama kind of responded but you still think to yourself man indiana's never had to do that they don't have to come back from down seventeen because they don't get down they get you down the one time they did have to come from behind they did it miraculously on the road against penn state so how indiana dominates this game is threefold number one just keep doing what you've done all year in terms of pressure keep getting pressure on the quarterback georgia crowbar alabama by doing that very thing just get pressure on the quarterback you know you're going to notice you're going to notice with all three things i say here it's just an extension of indiana continuing to do what they've done all year so number one just keep getting pressure on the quarterback alabama's offensive line has been under heavy scrutiny all year they will yet again in this game an alarming amount of free rushers at times have a shot at ty simpson probably frown upon that if you're trying to pick alabama to win this game number two indiana just needs to run the ball effectively like they have all year they're tenth in the country in that category alabama good against the run probably not elite top three against the run they've been plenty good enough there but then again they hadn't faced many teams like indiana and number three indiana needs to own third down like they've done all year they are number one in the country in third down efficiency i remember in the oklahoma game the first half the first quarter first half there was a stretch where i thought john matier on third down was going to end up being the padlock stat of the game remember he started and had a stretch where he was five of seven on third down and oklahoma kept moving the chains and then alabama came back and it kind of buried a lot of what would have been really really key stat categories for oklahoma well fernando mendoza is better than john mattier and this wide receiver core is better than what oklahoma put on the field and if they get rolling on third down i'm not sure that there's just this snap of the fingers adjustment by kane womack that completely shuts indiana down like they did oklahoma so those are the three ways or any combination of those by which indiana kind of just takes the game over and they probably don't win forty two to ten but it becomes one of those games that you look and you say i mean it's a two possession game but it feels so much worse plus it may be raining just some other things to think about here the loss the loss of steven daly is a really big deal for indiana you go back and watch their games specifically second half of the season and number eight's in the backfield consistently one of maybe the most disruptive players in their big games that i saw and to think that they're all of a sudden just without him and they haven't played a game without him they hadn't even played a series without him because he got injured in post game celebration in the big ten championship game look i respect the heck out of indiana but there is no program there's no team in the country now that just has the kind of depth where you lose those kinds of players and say all right next man up yeah next man up is your approach there will be a drop off there now the question is cumulatively does that unit step up to where you look at the drop off and you say man i didn't really even notice it in the game and i'll give you a really good parallel alabama fans will know what i'm talking about here remember the sec championship game georgia comes in there without their starting center and it's made to be a huge deal i thought it was a huge deal and then i found myself in the fourth quarter saying oh man you know what i hadn't even thought about drew bobo's out in this game because it didn't matter georgia made it a non factor so if brian haynes and that indiana defensive staff can make this guy being out a non factor i already voted for him for the broyles award but i would like to double down on my vote if he's able to do that so him being out is a big deal really big deal lt overton returning for alabama i think is a really big deal and the thing to remember about overton is he's not coming back from injury he's coming back from i don't know how best to describe this medical based issues but that didn't have anything to do with his legs knees ankles arms pec nothing like that normally when you get a guy from the defensive or even offensive line but specifically defensive front guys when they come back they're out of game shape and you got to work them back in and they'll give you eighteen to twenty snaps maybe i don't expect that from overton i expect him to be a full wire to wire player in this game but i remember talking to someone close to the alabama program coming out of the georgia game and they were looking at the health situation and they were like we're going to get some guys back for the oklahoma game if we can get through the oklahoma game and get that extra twelve days that's when we'll feel really good they got through the oklahoma game and they got the twelve extra days and now you get overton back but you get a more healthy jam miller you get a more healthy josh cuevas they're like shockingly as healthy as they've been since the early portion of the season normally works the opposite way but oregon and alabama are two teams where that could be happening for them which is good for them because everything gets earned against indiana i was listening to kurt signetti talk earlier today and someone asked him well what's the magic like what's the secret here and he just kind of looked through the guy and said well there's no secret just you know discipline a lot of things that people think are cliches or coach speak it's actually how kurt signidi has built indiana well part of that is just assignment sound doing your job they don't give away things indiana fans are not familiar at least the last year or two with watching their games and seeing these egregious busts and lack of focus and missed assignments teams may score on them they may even lose a game every now and then but it's because you quite literally reached in and took it they're not handing you anything you don't accidentally beat indiana you don't benefit from them shooting themselves in the foot so i saw someone earlier today say something that i on the surface agreed with but then i thought about it more and i don't know if this is true i'm going to read you the quote quote from an anonymous source earlier today it doesn't take a herculean effort to beat indiana you can't possibly know that cause no one's beaten indiana it doesn't take a herculean effort to be in a close game with them a few teams have done it iowa did it penn state did it ohio state did it yeah a few teams have done that none of them beat them though so respectfully to the anonymous source you have no clue what it takes to be in indiana you know what it takes to be in a game with them but there's a big difference with these teams that are made of the right stuff there's a big difference in playing them close versus beating them think about caleb deboer's washington team a couple of years ago like everyone on their schedule played him close and yet no one beat him so what kind of effort did it take to beat him well you didn't find out until michigan did it at the end of the season that's the kind of effort that it took so what kind of effort does it take to beat indiana i got no clue because no one's done it yet i've got thoughts but i really don't know no one's done it yet so i actually disagree with that statement it may take a heck of a lot it may take more than any team in the country possesses to beat indiana or alabama may be made of the right stuff and they go beat them in pasadena there is a chance and i'm going to get to the prediction in just a second there is a chance that oklahoma game did something alabama now there's another chance and that is that bama just beat a more flawed team and they're on borrowed time and then indiana is going to knock them out and afterwards we'll say you know what that just goes to show you if you can't run the ball you're not going to win a national championship absolutely could be the case or it could be that had alabama stumbled to a twenty three nineteen win over oklahoma that'd be ripe to be punched out right now but since that game went the way it went there is a trigger that gets switched sometimes in teams when they are forced to do what bama had to do against oklahoma i think of it as kind of pulling a rubber band back and letting it go the rubber band moment maybe that happened for alabama let's take a look at what the model thinks really big differential with what the model thinks and what vegas what fanduel has right now fanduel's got indiana minus six and a half our internal model has indiana minus three and a half and let me tell you friends i've got it closer than that nobody nobody i looked at a i looked at a graphic earlier today no one had alabama i know how that feels because i was part of the crowd last week i picked oklahoma i was part of the crowd and apparently the crowd's going the same way this week i'm not going with them this week i believe that oklahoma game did something alabama so if no one else wants to i'll just venture out on that branch all by myself i will take alabama to go out to pasadena and be the one that beats indiana this year and i think it's going to be because ty simpson has a very very efficient day i think they're much better than two of twelve on third down so a lot of the critical metrics that indiana has dominated indiana's probably still pretty good in i just think bama is going to be pretty good there as well and i think that probably the unsung name nationally for alabama so far this year that being kane womack ends up being a big difference here that's the defensive coordinator for those unfamiliar in why alabama gets this done so i'll take alabama to win if no one else will let us continue the sugar bowl i have some thoughts on this obviously that's why we're about to talk about it georgia versus ole miss that's the new year's night game sugar bowl kicks off at eight pm eastern down there in new orleans it's proudly presented to you by academy sports and outdoors i have it on very good authority that you could throw a pebble down there in the greater new orleans area and hit five academies academy plural not according to their official marketing but according to me it's been a long time since we saw georgia i don't know why it feels this way because georgia played the same weekend that indiana did and the same weekend that texas tech did i feel like it's been thirteen months since i saw georgia play a game it hasn't even been thirteen months since they played ole miss the first time around but i do have just a refresher course for any of you who have forgotten that game in athens forty three to thirty five was the final that was way back in the lane kiffin era for ole miss georgia over ole miss and georgia did not punt in the game i'm going to say something here it's going to sound disrespectful it's not it's just an observation and you guys are free to prove me wrong how does georgia not have a significant coaching staff edge in this game i would say it if lane was there i say that with most georgia games because georgia's got an incredible coaching staff but especially when you consider all the churn i'm not just talking about replacing lane kiffin in fact in a one off scenario i don't view that as being the huge deal fragmented attention spans i do view as being a huge deal you could convince me all you want to that everyone's doing their due diligence and there's not a worry in the world about guys splitting time between heading off the lsu but still sticking behind the coach well they're humans so it absolutely does play a role here because kirby smart's got a building full of guys that aren't going anywhere largely including himself and his coordinators at least that we know of so and that's no hint i legitimately mean just anything could happen at any time so yeah it's an edge for georgia and this is where georgia season ended last year this very building you remember the notre dame game and remember gunner stockton getting i think that was his first start right jesse he came in in the sec championship game and then he started down there in the sugar bowl twenty three to ten i want to say was the final so yeah unpleasant memories as of late in the sugar bowl for georgia i have a theory here it may sound bold i don't think this is that bold i think trinidad chambliss is the most dangerous quarterback in the playoffs this year so you can decipher that however you want to i didn't know if i wanted to say best because that really comes down to okay what category are we measuring him in here's what i'm measuring the guy who's already played at a pretty high level but the guy that could still level his game up even more in other words if you wanted to do the very very ill conceived football to basketball comparison thing he's the three point shooter that could just get insanely hot and carry a team at the quarterback position that's who trinidad chambliss is he scored touchdowns they he slash they ole miss scored touchdowns in their first five drives against georgia the first time around and that was his first sec road start so i'm going to assume he hadn't gotten worse since then and i'm just telling you because i had it disseminated to me by someone close to georgia no matter who we play in this tournament that guy's the most dangerous and i actually agree with him otherwise i wouldn't have said it on air i think he's the most dangerous he poses the most unique challenge to kirby smart and that defense out of any quarterback they'll face the rest of the way now they're favored against them they should be favored against them but if they can get through this thing you you maintain focus but internally i'd breathe a little sigh of relief that we got past that guy no one's going to challenge us more than that guy did he's got ten games with a rush of ten plus yards georgia didn't sack him last time now georgia's pass rush looks night and day different second half of the year really just coming off that ole miss game there are a lot of theories around athens that something about the latter stages of that ole miss game really lit a spark in them that was georgia's rubber band moment defensively i can't disprove that because the numbers largely back that up so the trinidad chambliss factor is in play and gunner stockton yet again finds himself being the runner up in terms of quarterback conversation in a game that he's playing which is unfair so around these parts on this campus here at pate state we think gunner stockton is one of the best big game quarterbacks in the country we don't have to pretend we know we saw him in the tennessee game and that was early in the season and they go on the road and they need him they need forty and he gets it for him and they win against texas they hung thirty five i think they win comfortably against ole miss they needed every one of those forty three points and he was twenty six of thirty one he had two hundred eighty nine through the air he had another sixty on the ground he had five combined touchdowns i think he played his best game against ole miss and then in the sec championship game did everything that was asked of him so gunner stockton has been really good in big moments and i don't think georgia needs explosive plays as long as they're not giving them up now if you're giving them up that's a whole different thing ole miss is top ten in explosive plays they're top ten in cat buster plays which we classify as gains of forty plus yards georgia doesn't give up a ton of those and as long as they don't in this game i don't care georgia's like in the sixties and the one hundred twenties in explosive plays and cat buster play that's okay did you watch that alabama game didn't have a ton of explosive plays still suffocated the opposition josh the georgia tech game ditto ditto so the difference is you watch alabama in atlanta there's no world where they could play that game three times and bama wouldn't have scored a combined thirty five nor would georgia tech the week before ole miss can do it so if you're giving up explosives well then you got to press the issue a little bit kirby smart i think if georgia were to lose the game we'll lose the game because he forced trinidad chambliss to be exactly what i said he could be because here's why i don't think georgia would lose the game i struggle to see a scenario where you know the clock strikes midnight new year's night all the games have been played the dust settles in new orleans and ole miss has won the game and they've won it because kewan lacey goes for one hundred eighty on the ground teams just don't beat georgia running the ball conventionally you can beat them but that's just not the way you do it i would be very very surprised if that's the way they did it he had twelve carries for thirty one yards the first time around that was a season low for him you may be getting one hundred fifty percent version of him health wise i just don't think that's going to be the reason they lose now if trinidad chambliss goes off that's a whole nother story because there's a level of athletic quarterback in college football that especially if he's got it with his legs and he's making the throws there's not much a college football defense can do about i'm talking about the best defenses of all time kirby was the coordinator on some defenses in the mid twenty teens that were way more loaded than this defense is now and deshaun watson happened to him and it didn't matter how loaded they were so that's always been the case in college football there's a certain caliber of athlete that if he's clicking throwing the ball and you know what he can do with his legs you just got to outscore him so if that happens that happens i highly doubt trinidad chambliss has an okay day and ole miss just traditionally runs their way to a win i don't see that you also know this if you're georgia you don't have to be perfect like miami we're going to talk about miami and ohio state a little bit later miami has to capitalize on every single scoring opportunity and ohio state might have to as well because they figure to be few and far between if you're georgia defensively you don't have to pitch a shutout you don't have to hope to hold him under twenty just as long as you are what you know you can be offensively that's okay you don't want to give up points but that's okay just as long as they had to earn it just as long as you didn't give them short fields just as long as you didn't bust assignments if they're earning it then that's okay and you know what if they beat you doing that sometimes you just tip your cap you don't have to be happy about it but you just tip your cap but it's been really hard to cut the head off the snake that is georgia this year several teams got close but not enough teams stepped up to do it and so there they are or here they are affecting the quarterback neither of these teams has been through the roof statistically for the whole year georgia's been very good about it as of late but there's a difference all due respect to the mobility of one ty simpson there's a little bit of a difference in affecting ty simpson versus affecting trinidad chambliss the georgia run game i think is the most reliable facet in this thing and huge hats off to that staff by the way remember this time last year they were headed into new orleans same building they'll be going into this week and we were asking man can georgia win without being able to run the ball because you know they couldn't run the ball very effectively last year well they're up there i think in the thirties this year high twenties low thirties depending on which metric you're looking at so they resurrected that ground game plenty effectively enough and i think that's the most reliable facet here i do think from a psychological standpoint there is a card pete golding can play that whole ole miss versus the world thing yeah that'll play that'll play and you use whatever you need to use as fuel at this point i do think from a side if you want to go the psychological route and not everyone does but if you want to go the psychological route yeah pete and the guys over there can use the us versus the world mantra you don't think kirby smart's reminding folks what happened last time that team was in new orleans yeah so i view that as a wash let's take a look at what the model thinks fanduel's got georgia minus six and a half right now the model a little bit higher on ole miss got georgia minus five i just trust kirby in these games i trust kirby in these games and my third reason for this pick is i trust kirby in these games so i will take georgia to win and cover yeah i'll take him to cover i disagree a little bit with the model there but i take him to winning cover now that would that would move georgia if i'm right to the semifinal in glendale arizona which is the fiesta bowl and i just have a very very exciting potential matchup to talk to you about momentarily but first i want to talk to you there goes my pen i want to talk to you about academy sports and outdoors longtime partner of the show i was informed that several of you especially in the latter portion of the season got caught a little off guard by weather and so before you made your trip to the stadium one of the last trips you made was to academy sports and outdoors which is fine okay there's no shame in that but what i would like to do is i would like to suggest to you that maybe being a little proactive buying the gear before you need it may not be the worst idea in the world and i have it on good authority that academy endorses that message even though they didn't specifically ask me to say that tonight they will be open ready willing and able to take your business now you may be thinking to yourself josh i'm watching the replay of the show it's one thirty in the morning that's fine academy dot com is open twenty four hours a day the website never closes i don't know how they pull off staffing but it never closes and so you can go to academy dot com and hook yourself up i personally was the recipient of one of the most valuable items that you can buy at academy and i received it in bulk over christmas from my dear mother in law and that is multiple flavors of big league chew i sat right there on her couch in ocean springs mississippi with a cheek full of ground ball grape watching misses doubtfire that's how i spent my christmas night how'd you spend your christmas night thank you academy.
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Josh Pate
Lenovo lenovo.
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Josh Pate
Limu emu and doug here we have the limu emu in its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with liberty mutual fascinating it's accompanied by his natural ally doug limu is that guy with.
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They see us only pay for what you need at libertymutual dot com liberty liberty liberty liberty savings very unwritten by liberty mutual insurance company and affiliates excludes.
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Josh Pate
Let'S continue got one more game to predict here it's the first one this is the one that we'll see first miami ohio state new year's eve seven thirty pm eastern kickoff cotton bowl dallas ohio state lives in this building now this one's fueled by quick trip you could live in miami you may live in columbus or who knows you may live somewhere between maybe thinking about making the trip to dallas do it just make sure you stop a quick trip on the way fuel up and then get ready because i don't think this game is just your garden variety nine and a half point spread there is a reason ohio state has earned this reputation miami theoretically could be a way different team now than the one that lost to smu the one that lost to louisville that's what you want to be you want to be peaking and if you're peaking you can draw clues off of a team's losses earlier in the year but you also got to understand yeah if they're still that team they wouldn't be here to begin with so when i say not your usual nine and a half point spread there are some rumors out there now i don't know the validity of this but bradley could we throw up the graphic for just a second friend of the program old j book this is a direct quote from twitter dot com courtesy of him he said all i've heard all week is ohio state doesn't belong on the same field as miami miami supposedly has the better d line the better o line the better defense malachi toney better than jeremiah smith they've got the better run game the better coach the better quarterback ohio state haven't played anyone and they're slow and soft this is the kind of this is the kind of nonsense that leads to a team winning a national championship and then nolan smith getting on live tv and saying yeah man people predicted us to go seven and five i'm pretty sure they didn't man you're the university of georgia i don't think anyone predicted you to go seven and five i don't think many people are predicting you to lose five games in the next two years combined likewise who in the world said this who said this listen i'm in some very exclusive miami group text they're not even saying this they may think they're gonna win they may have the orange and green glasses on i haven't even heard this from them so i doubt this is valid but i do want it to be on the record so let's dive in i need to know about ohio state i do i need to know about ohio state here's what i need to know quite simple was the indiana game the twenty twenty five version of michigan twenty twenty four if it was ohio state's going to win the national championship i have very little doubt about that remember what happened last year they lost to michigan it was a crushing setback it ended up being a huge blessing in disguise at least in terms of winning the national championship now people like me who value rivalry games over the playoff i thought it was terrible no matter what but most people out there i'd say like ninety percent of the public cares about the national championship more than rivalry games so if your goal is to win the national title ohio state benefited from the michigan loss last year is that what the indiana game is going to end up being they lost thirteen to ten they had two scoring opportunities late they combined for zero points on those scoring drives i just rewatched the game today is that ohio state's rubber band moment well you can tell that they're very diametrically opposed scenarios here because scenario a is we're right about that and you'll know because julian sain will come out in this game and he'll just be crisp and all those weapons will be in play and jeremiah smith will have more damage done in the first quarter than he did the entire game and they'll just be off to the races and miami will be down twenty to six at the half and you'll be saying man ohio ohio state's just about to suffocate the life out of him and this game's over at the half that would be scenario a early lead miami pressure kind of neutralized that's the first scenario the second scenario is the same julian saying that got sacked five times against indiana finds himself on his back three times in the first half against miami and we find out that miami really does have a two way edge on the line of scrimmage and there is not enough time for julian saen to sit there in a clean pocket and take advantage of the cat buster passing plays that ohio state when they're clicking has at their disposal and then it's just a dog fight and it may be the first to seventeen wins kind of game miami had seven sacks against a and m so a little different kind of athletic profile here than anything anything that ohio state seen all year and i'm not one of these dudes who sits around saying oh ohio state hasn't played anyone that's foolish yes they have they played texas earlier in the year they just played indiana they won one of those games they lost the other games here's what's important ohio state has faced two top twenty defenses and i just named them texas and indiana and they scored fourteen points against one and they scored ten points against the other so in the scenario where the indiana game really didn't trigger anything in ohio state it just went on to show us that they're a good but flawed team that's what would happen could still beat miami they're favored by nine and a half for a reason but it becomes a much different game if that's the case so the first thing we got to learn is we got to learn who ohio state is who is the playoff version of the ohio state buckeyes in twenty twenty five slash six secondly carson beck in a big game still needs to be someone miami can trust this is maybe the most important dynamic of this game carson beck because the lasting image you have in your mind is of him and his passing game being non existent against a and m and i just want to tell you until further notice i'm going to consider that a little bit of an anomaly i was on the field at that game and i went back and watched the broadcast and they did mention several times that it was windy you cannot fully appreciate how big a factor wind played in that game and that wind played in the play calling in that game unless you were there it was to the point where the uprights were moving that's how windy it was unbelievable like it was way windier than it was the night before at the oklahoma game and so once each defensive coordinator saw hey we can kind of handle the opposition here nobody wanted to take the big risk and shannon dawson didn't take the big risks with carson beck which led many to believe oh dude carson beck's just he's kind of washed he's kind of kind of cooked he's he's he's not carson beck anymore yeah i think he is i think he is and i think he'll play a really good game here now a good game against ohio state doesn't mean you throw for three hundred eighty and four touchdowns but static conditions you know he's going back to the same state but that's about all this triple have in common with the last trip because you get to play indoors and you know it's going to be seventy two and zero mile per hour winds at kickoff carson's beck just do the prayer hands emoji and look up and say thank you and then people are going to look at you like you're a little weird and you need to go back to work so i think he's going to play a good game i don't think carson beck is going to be you know like the handcuff behind the back to miami's offense that many are making it out to believe he's going to be here now having said that this is still a really really tough defense to go against cause as much as i think weather played a factor the first time around well here's the trade off to that yeah you get much better conditions to work in this is a much better defense than the one you just faced so you're going to have to make it work you're going to have to do the work you got to show up carson beck's got to show up here miami can run the ball and i don't doubt that that's a central part of their game plan here and they may have some success are you just going to run over ohio state no quarterbacks got to make plays that's what he's there for that's what he's being paid for which is not a sentence we said five years ago but we're saying it right now someone beyond malachi tony is going to have to step up as well he's a really really good player and they use him in a multitude of ways and he will be an impact in this game but it can't just be him elijah lofton that's the guy i'm circling here that's the one i'm a big fan of any elijah tight end down there at miami as has been often noted so yeah it's got to be a team effort there miami style of play against ohio state there's going to be a lot made of this this week i think this will be the most physical team ohio state's faced all year i think this will be the most physical team miami's faced all year so there's two sides to that coin and i think miami really relishes i think i think ohio state really relishes this idea miami relishes the idea of the game turning into a fist fight i don't think ohio state shies away from that now it really doesn't matter like if one team has the edge there one team has the edge there miami's gonna have to prove they had the edge there like people can talk about it all week i can talk about it all week whatever i don't really i rarely see ohio state take a backseat physically to anyone so that may very well be the way miami intends on winning this game and it could be the way they do win the game who knows i don't think it's going to be an easy task so miami has been the more mistake prone team this year played a good game against a and m they won it wasn't without mistakes i watch ohio state most games that they aren't favored by four touchdowns in they don't shoot themselves in the foot nearly to the degree that miami has at times this year i think until further notice you've got to give the big staff edge to ohio state just because they've got experience here they've been here i don't i know the miami staff very well so i got all the respect in the world for the move mario made to bring corey heatherman in has completely transformed that team shannon dawson's a really really high level offensive mind they haven't been here ohio state's guys have now ohio state is losing brian hartline to usf ryan day's calling plays in this game so there's kind of a unique dynamic both sides here quarterback experience edge miami o line versus d line edge this is going to get clipped i know it is i think the edge goes to miami d line versus o line edge i think the edge goes to miami and yet here i sit with ohio state as a nine and a half point favorite i'm stunned the number opened that high i'm stunned it opened that high because i am either wrong about what i just said at which point this is moot but if i'm right about what i said and i'm not the only one who thinks that so certainly there are other people out there thinking that how often do you look and think one team has a two way edge on the line of scrimmage and the experience edge at quarterback and they're nearly a double digit underdog how often does that happen it doesn't happen very often miami and ohio state i think both risk crowbar games here the crowbar is just when whatever you're attempting to do offensively isn't working out at all we saw that kind of game between miami and a and m now the difference is miami wore them down and they were able to run the ball so they were able to win running the ball whereas a and m hardly had anything going for him we've seen ohio state work themselves into that kind of game this year like ohio state's record kind of kind of masks what the reality has been in a couple of these games the texas game to start off with but the indiana game most recently you're watching it and you're saying man they got all that firepower out wide and they got how many points on the board with two minutes to go it's happened to both teams this year could happen again here's the problem i've been conflicted on this game all day this is the one i was talking about this is the one we started the show tonight with me not really knowing where i was going because i have many reasons that i want to pick miami to win this game outright i also picked ohio state to win the national championship let's take a look at what the model thinks fanduel's got ohio state minus nine and a half when i said this isn't your normal nine and a half point spread i mean it in this way rarely is a number nine and a half on a big college football game which means the value has been hammered out of the number and i'm sitting here saying oh man this is up in the air it's really up in the air for me clearly i'll take miami in the points clearly i'll take them i'll trust the having been there i'll trust that angle and i will take ohio state to win i trust ryan day i trust him that's all i have to say i'm going to take miami in the points though i can't believe that number came out that high yeah that one i'm conflicted on i know it's right now it's sunday it's december twenty eighth we got three days until that game happens i'm not against changing my mind midweek it will be frowned upon but it's not impossible they're watching us in oxford mississippi terre haute indiana and chicago illinois thank you guys so much telling you that one was tough for me that one was really tough i'm gonna tell you why it's tough i love both those coaching staffs and there are multiple members of both of those coaching staffs that watch every second of this show i'm actually not joking about that because i correspond with them after every show and so no matter which way i go there i am going to get lit up in a very jovial manner but lit up nonetheless and what i'm saying is going to be taken and it's going to be disseminated and it's going to be weaponized against me if i'm wrong and i know it's coming so it's tough it's a tough life that we live over here it's a very tough life show me that question about hires bradley william from muskegon michigan said pound for pound who do you think made the best hire this coaching cycle yeah that'd be virginia tech for me pound for pound pound for pound means we're not just judging it in a vacuum right like we're we're accepting that some programs have inferior resources to other programs so like i'm not just going to say oh lane kiffin lsu lane kiffin was the hottest commodity on the coaching market but pound for pound virginia tech nailed his coaching cycle better than anyone did virginia tech was sitting there and they fired brent pry you know now that i wasn't even going to mention brent okay think about this virginia tech sitting there season's not going the way they want it to they fire brent pry they got a coaching opening then out of nowhere penn state fires easily a top fifteen caliber head coach you are not a top twenty caliber program right now virginia tech hasn't been a top thirty caliber program and a top fifteen caliber head coach just falls in your lap and oh by the way the dude you just fired he hires as his defensive coordinator no catch no strings attached no scandals no ncaa sanctions they just got james franklin who had been in the semifinals of the college football playoffs less than the calendar year before it's the kind of thing where when you tell it to someone they say oh yeah what's the catch there's no catch this is just how college football works now so virginia tech killed it they crushed it but then here's where it really gets interesting if you're telling your friends about this they're gonna be like oh man which school fired that guy penn state oh they must be screwed huh well it's funny you should mention that cause i also think penn state killed it penn state's one of the big winners in this hiring cycle now i did not think we were going to be saying that this i've been on record it is well documented how i felt about the nature of the penn state coaching search and i'm not an anti pat craft guy but i had my reservations about the way it was being handled now freely admit i wasn't behind the scenes there so i didn't get to see all the inner workings i feel like i have a pretty good idea of how it went and i feel thought it was going downhill quick and i think it was going downhill quick and then they did what they should have done at the very outset of the search and they called matt campbell and because of a unique set of circumstances an elite head coach tailor made for the penn state job happened to be available because the guy has refused to leave iowa state for a long time we've documented those reasons on this show we had him on the show the day he was announced at penn state and he talked about it if you want to go listen to that interview and so penn state somehow made a move that i disagreed with but most of the fans would agree needed to be made so we can agree to disagree on that but whatever i thought about it they fired james franklin and somehow just killed it by naming his replacement to the point where the history books are going to look back on this and probably the context will be lost to time penn state fans will remember it but most people won't remember what the fifty four days between franklin's firing and campbell's hiring were like they'll just remember man they got rid of james franklin and then look what matt campbell went on to do because i think what he's going to go on to do is really special so i don't know how you don't call him a winner i just didn't think that we were going to be talking about that but yet here we are that's why you reserve your opinion until the ink dries until and the ink is dried and penn state off to the races with matt campbell jesse by the way i highly doubt we have any twenty twenty six schedules but i would encourage you guys look at penn state's schedule this upcoming year who who man i'll give you time it's it's not even january it's not even the year twenty twenty six yet michigan oh wait wait wait wait don't don't do anything bradley don't touch a thing there it is there's penn state schedule we don't even know the order of the games yet there is let me tell you what there's not there's not ohio state and there's not oregon and they go to michigan and they get usc at home and here's an added bonus when it comes to big ten scheduling so the usc game there you see where it says tba like we don't know when the date is going to be what's fun about that is it could be september twenty sixth or it could be november twenty sixth so lincoln riley has to sit out there in los angeles knowing the road games he has but not knowing the dates and look hey if you're playing the arizona schools and whatnot in the old pac twelve days not a big deal you're playing the big ten so you may have to go to like piscataway new jersey and state college pennsylvania and madison wisconsin yes september versus november makes a big difference there but this is not about lincoln riley i want to talk about michigan i've had some more time to think about this since the last time we talked by the way on the live show at least michigan has hired kyle whittingham and the more i think about it the more i just like it the more i love it from a pound to what was it pound for pound yeah because the question was pound for pound who made the best hires pound for pound to me includes context and the context at michigan is this was not a long runway coaching search with no strings attached this was a coaching search that came out of nowhere because a scandal became a full blown scandal became a fired for cause situation out of nowhere and then they had a coaching search dumped in their lap i just keep raising fingers also you've got an internal investigation going on up there you've got an interim president situation so pound for pound this was the least ideal time ever to be running a coaching search for michigan and they had to do it anyway and what did they do they went and got the best head coach pound for pound out of the big twelve whose own program had jettisoned him because coach and waiting never works it's always a tire fire in the end and kyle whittingham is sitting there at sixty six years old i saw on the michigan on three board the other day someone who i think played for him at one point described kyle whittingham by saying this dude does three things he coaches football he works out and he eats steak that's it that's all he does those three things every day i don't pretend to know what makes a michigan man but probably those three things are involved and so kyle whittingham's coming there and at the very least it's going to steady the ship it's going to inject a much needed shot of solid football culture into the building you could sell me that this is a short term hire you could sell me this that he's going to be there the next seven years i said in the reaction video we did could be either or could absolutely be either or but what's important right now is stability and what's important right now is you're not just bringing in like some old uncle remus you know to just steady things be a calming presence and you know if we win we win if we lose we lose but at least people will respect us no man kyle whittingham's there to win the big ten he's there to beat ohio state he's there to you know compete in the playoff and they can do that because i think the full force of michigan investment will be behind him so there's there's very little risk here what's the risk well kyle whittingham football coach what's the risk age why do we as a society hate old people so much cause they're lame no no they are not it's a line from the office that's not me that's creed i think kyle whittingham is going to do fine the more i thought about it the more i think wait a second pound for pound this is one of the best hires of the cycle so there you go and lastly go a little bit off the radar here but it's just one of the hires i'm irrationally excited about alex golish at auburn alex goelish at auburn is one of the best hires of the cycle not many people will echo me on that that's okay i thought auburn was on the precipice of historically fumbling their coaching search and then alex goelish was available and now he's the head coach at auburn and i think it's a puzzle piece fit i felt that way i felt that way before he got hired i just didn't know that alex was going to be a serious candidate there like i thought it may be one cycle too early for him to get that caliber job turns out it wasn't so he got that caliber job i just think it's going to work all the intangibles plus the tangibles not the least of which is quarterback recruiting and development production we went down the long list of quarterback and quarterback inefficiencies that have plagued auburn football and i don't know if he'll win eleven games per year there but i doubt they're going to lose because they can't get quarterback figured out so alex goelish will get quarterback figured out i think he's got the right blend of like new school mentality but old school values that will work there i think he'll fully embrace auburn i think auburn will fully embrace him and i just think he's going to kill it there so alex goelish i cheat a little bit because like i know alex most of college football doesn't really know him you know that he was at tennessee i think you know that and you know he was the usf guy and he's got a unique last name like that's kind of what you know oh by the way he's russian right yeah okay that's what you know about him he's a really good football coach and i think he's what they need now we're going to shift the tone a little bit here but we do have to talk about this as you may or may not know excuse me as you may or may not know the pinstripe bowl was held over the christmas break clemson was a participant they did not win with that in mind philip from spartanburg south carolina home of tyler hit us up and said i'm a clemson die hard while i love what dabo did to bring clemson to the top of the sport it feels like the tigers have tumbled and he's not the right guy to handle this era of college football am i crazy for thinking this no you are not you're not crazy for thinking this because philip you know what the standard at clemson is the standard at clemson is the standard at clemson because dabbo swinney made it the standard had dabo never existed and we just copied and pasted what clemson had been which was a decent pretty good program for the past fifteen years like if we if we just stretched what they had been pre dabbody over the past fifteen years it'd be a little bit different but you've seen what clemson can be because dabo swinney showed you and now you won't accept anything less and they've become less than what they were college football's changed all around dabbo swinney dabo has changed minimally to keep up with the changes in college football here's how i thought about this season in the summer i thought okay clemson's going to have one more good trip around the sun and then it could be rocky times but i thought man forget about like don't even think about twenty twenty six this is me in july in july i was thinking like don't even think about twenty twenty six everything about this twenty twenty five team is quintessentially dabo swinney he's got his hand picked offensive coordinator multiple years in the system now his hand picked in house developed quarterback multiple years in the system with the same coordinator they've got the number one returning production roster in the country they're all clemson kids they were all recruited here they've been developed here there's minimal portal infusion whatsoever whatsoever favorable schedule this right here will be the truest test out of any test for any of these teams about how it reflects on the head coach at the program and they went seven and six so yeah i wouldn't feel good about it at all i don't feel good about it at all and when i say about it at all i mean as it relates to clemson being a national title contender which they should be there's no excuse why they can't be they got really really good players there they've got access to really good talent they got all the advantage in the world some of it they choose not to partake in which is the call of the head coach there so for anyone who thinks this was like some blip on the radar screen no it's trended this way for several years firstly like undeniable data based like like just black and white trends anyone who believes that this is temporary he'll pull the nose up why do you feel that way i'm really asking like look at how raised my eyebrows are i'm really asking i'd love to be sold on this but why should i expect any better why should i expect it to turn around this past year was going to be the year that if the dabo model still worked it would be proven the oc multi year starter at quarterback number one returning production and by the way clemson being number one in returning production means a whole bunch of kids dabo recruited a whole bunch of kids dabo developed minimal portal infusion and you go seven and six so that was with everything kind of being in place now a lot of those guys leave and there is very little proven production behind them and clemson has not killed it in recruiting they've been good but you're talking about who you have to compete against now and you just refuse to really really dip into the portal at all in any significant way why would i expect it to be any different i should expect it to tail off like you look at seven and six and your instinct is oh we had a down year next year will be better no no on paper next year should be worse for clemson now that's the same paper that led several of us to think they could win nine or ten games this year so maybe that paper's not worth a whole lot you better hope it's not but i don't see any reason to think it'd get better the reason i'm always conflicted on this is because there's a lot that dabo swinney stands for that i just have immense respect for so let me do let me do you a favor right quick and myself a favor before the pinstripe bowl they were doing the press conference and someone asked dabo swinney you know about like his philosophy and how he goes about things and i want you to listen to the sound i'll react to it on the other side how important is it to you to pour into these guys just as.
- [85:21]
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- [85:23]
Dabo Swinney
Well yeah i mean that's my calling in life i mean that's my purpose i mean i know everybody wants me to win football games but it's more about how i win that's what matters to me more than anything always has it's never been anything different never will be you know that's my purpose in life glorify god be a great husband and father and to use this platform of football and education to build great men through this game that we love that's my calling that's my purpose in life that's never changed never going to change and man we've been purpose driven for a long long time we've won a bunch of games bunch of championships more than most we've won a lot more than we've lost and we'll continue to win a lot more than we've lost but you know that's what it's all about to.
- [86:10]
Josh Pate
Got all the respect in the world for it for anyone who doesn't know dabo swinney or i don't know him personally i don't think i've ever talked to dabo in my life i'd love to but i haven't but i've observed him for a long time i know many people who do know him that's very authentic that's his worldview that's his college football worldview that's his life's worldview there's nothing about that that's inauthentic there's a little bit about it that you can see through though like he was talking about graduation rates being the most important thing about football well actually it's not because you don't get paid eleven million dollars because you graduate kids the other reason i know that's not the most important thing is because you guys never hang banners in the stadium for graduation rates you don't have unless he has a contract stipulation that i don't know about there aren't very many incentive clauses baked into contracts for graduation rates but i could be wrong on that but i know one hundred percent you got him in there for winning a certain amount of games and winning national championships and conference championships so all due respect that's not the most important thing in a perfect world where you have a properly calibrated value system that is a huge critical part of it yes it is but even if you dismiss the whole part about that let me go back to another thing he said there the reason the biggest problem i have with dabo is i'm always very conflicted because a lot of his values and principles i fully believe in in fact all of them i fully believe in that's not very different than how i would sound if i was a head coach but i like to think i would look at it and realize well wait a second i'm not the only guy in this sport with principles and values that are properly aligned difference is there are other people out there who in my opinion have properly defined and aligned principles and values but are also able to adapt because to me that's another critical value to have as part of your organization in any walk of life but especially one as ultra competitive as college football when you refuse to take advantage of mechanisms of talent acquisition like the portal because you want to go about it a certain way to me what that's always screamed is the only kind of kid that works at clemson is one that we can recruit out of high school there is no kid that has the proper critical factors in the portal that would work at clemson i've never believed that i've never believed that i never will believe that if that's the case you've got far too rigid a set of critical factors for the modern age of college football so then the follow up is are you willing to change and maybe dabos when he's not willing to change i don't expect him to change it's been my take for three years on this i don't expect him to change i do not expect you to wake up one morning and log on to on three dot com and pete nakos has this headline dabo swinney's taking fifteen kids out of the portal i don't ever expect that not that i think it's necessary happy medium would work it would suffice but any sizable improvement with that program at this point would require significant change and i don't think dabos wendy is the kind of guy at this point in his career that's going to significantly change and so what it could just be is it could be that we're sort of watching the final chapter or chapters being written of the dabo era at clemson if it ended today he'd go down as one of the best of all time first ballot hall of famer he is the face of clemson football when i was a little kid clemson football meant one thing and when i am my age now it will mean a totally different thing because that guy existed i couldn't think any more highly of him but there's an end to everything like there's an end to every run and if you're not going to get with the program here i mean if you're not going to adjust if you're not going to adapt you will die as it as it pertains to being a playoff contender it's been an age old concept tale is old as time it's happened a billion times this would just be a billion and one i'm not going to tell you to go bet season win totals for twenty twenty six just yet but if you wanted to start you know perusing at your leisure you can do it on fanduel more than likely what you want to do this week is you want to hit up maybe some college football playoff futures or maybe you just flat out want to go say ohio state minus nine and a half i'll take that action lay the points buckeyes win twenty to three you can do that at fanduel or you could bet miami on the money line you could do that at fanduel you know either or probably not both just a reminder though every college football playoff game has those sorts of futures bets on it you can get profit boost over at fanduel right now if you partake now many of you don't bet which is fine if you just want a reminder of like for example huh ole miss total rushing yards over under what is it you can just go look like you don't even have to have an account you just go look but if you do want an account and you look and you say i'll take the over on ole miss total rushing yards you can do that as well fanduel the exclusive odds provider of the show must be.
- [91:33]
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- [92:16]
Josh Pate
New york one last thing before we get out of here if i may the transfer portal smoke all over the place that means it's on fire it's december twenty eighth right now that thing opens on the second january second but that doesn't mean there's not already a ton of activity there is a huge amount of activity i don't know on a scale of one to ten what this is going to measure on the college football richter scale but it's not going to be a zero three of the top five currently in the portal or intending to go in the portal are g five players not a shock those are the current on three portal player rankings you got drew mestemaker who's the quarterback from north texas and caleb hawkins who's the running back from north texas now you may think to yourself don't they just follow eric morris to oklahoma state i have no idea maybe they will but there's going to be a big market for both of those guys so let's just hold our horses a little bit there look at the guy ranked right behind him byron brown is the fifth ranked overall player in the on three portal rankings and that is slash was the quarterback at usf does he follow alex goal is to auburn again these are very distinct possibilities i think we're going to see those dominoes start to fall pretty quickly when january second gets here iowa state's getting rocked here this is the part that i disproportionately hate about coaching movement in the modern age of college football i don't push back on it like obviously if coaches move players should be able to move i don't push back on that it doesn't mean it has to make me feel good there is a rumor going around that i was always a secret sleeper cell agent i was never really an iowa state fan i was just trying to get matt campbell out of there which is of course insane because i liked iowa state before matt got there still like him now and so i look at this and twenty two of their players and sixteen starters being in the portal and kind of sucks but i get it and it is what it is and i'm sure a fair amount of them are going to follow him to penn state i also understand that the real world works now in a manner that coaches look at the roster and see who could follow us and maybe even in the interview process hey i'm pitching myself because i can bring these kinds of players with me i actually don't think that's the way campbell's process worked but also you don't need to articulate it people just kind of understand athletic directors aren't idiots university presidents and boards of directors and all this stuff they're not idiots they understand it's an unspoken if we get this guy maybe his quarterback comes with him and maybe those two corners come with him cause johntez williams and jeremiah cooper by the way couple of corners sixth and seventh rated players overall in the on three portal rankings right now both hitting the exit door from iowa state also rocco beck the quarterback number thirty four overall in the portal underrated hitting the portal so don't love that they're not the only one dealing with it don't love it though one player i have an eye on is eugene wilson out of florida he is the number seventy eight rated player in the portal now i still have this side of me that believes with a healthy season this guy could be a thousand yard receiver maybe i'm wrong but i believe it according to esteemed friend of the program pete nakos it looks like texas tech could be a team to watch here it's early obviously portal's not even open yet but it opens january second and if you think about you know like who's in need penn state is obviously going to take a ton of kids florida auburn auburn's got to take a ton of kids we're still trying to figure out who is and isn't staying at auburn virginia tech going to be in the market in a big way oklahoma state i saw something like forty plus kids maybe leaving from there yeah they got to take a bunch of kids too lsu and lane kiffin they're going to be very active arkansas ryan silverfield taking the job they're trying to transform as much of the roster year one as he can will stein's going to kentucky so it with these new i mean kyle kyle whittingham at michigan what's michigan going to look like who's going to stay at michigan like what's bryce underwood going to do and then you got the big boys like texas oregon alabama georgia ohio state these are not teams in desperation mode but like you see trey wisner hit the portal at texas at the tailback position you don't think that might not have been because he heard a little rumbling or two about who texas may be taking out of the portal at the running back position so yeah i don't i don't eat sleep and breathe the portal but this is an integral part of this game now and as long as it is we got to be on top of it that is our show i appreciate you guys we do not have a show until the semifinal games are played i will tell you that we'll have rapid reaction videos for all four of those games because you guys have really really like taken a dive into those things when we've done them so shortly after especially cotton bowl new year's eve while everyone else is celebrating i'll be sitting there talking about how ohio state did or did not beat miami and then the next day orange bowl boom rose bowl boom sugar bowl boom just stay locked onto the channel and while you're there subscribe because it's free and it doesn't sign you up for anything appreciate you guys so much until the next time we talk just make sure you're following on socials oshpate cfb for director bradley for producer jesse i'm josh pate take care let's end the season let's end the year strong and then we'll talk again this time about a week from now until then take care and god bless.
- [98:20]
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- [99:06]
Josh Pate
We got y' all this is that classic hbcu vibe the band is rocking and the crowd lit chant echo drum beat everybody showing that school pride game like this yeah it calls for an ice cold coca cola ah crisp and refreshing that's a game changer right there yeah that taste always hits the right note just like the band at halftime and just like that we're back at it ashley fans school colors everywhere and an ice cold coca cola that's a winning combo no matter the sport no matter the yard everybody knows fan work is thirsty work so grab a coca cola and keep that hbcu pride going.
- [99:51]
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- [100:56]
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