Podcast Summary: Josh Pate's College Football Show — “CFP Quarterfinal Predictions + Dabo Problems & Best Hires”
Date: December 29, 2025
Host: Josh Pate
Podcast: iHeartPodcasts
Episode Overview
In this packed episode, Josh Pate dives deep into College Football Playoff (CFP) quarterfinal predictions, analyzes the state of Dabo Swinney and Clemson football, reviews the best coaching hires of the offseason, and offers both statistical and cultural insights. With his trademark blend of insider information, data, and straight talk, Josh provides listeners with the context they need to understand this critical postseason stretch. The tone is energetic, relatable, and infused with Pate’s signature transparency and playful banter.
1. Playoff Quarterfinal Game Predictions
1.1. Texas Tech vs. Oregon – Orange Bowl
(Begins ~09:10)
Key Points:
- Both teams boast the No. 1 and No. 2 most explosive offenses in the country. Over/under is set at 52.5.
- Texas Tech: Exceptional run defense ("No one really ran it effectively on them"), but doubts linger if their Big 12 performance will translate.
- Oregon: Viewed as a team that can “rev the engine” late; offensive ceiling remains high due to talent and late-season development.
- Critical Matchup: Oregon’s rushing attack vs. Texas Tech’s run defense.
- “Padlock stats”: Oregon’s rushing efficiency is a pivotal factor.
Notable Analysis & Quotes:
- “You really got to trust your eyes on Texas Tech...” (12:12)
- “Joey McGuire was on this very show in the spring talking about...the best building I've been in...He was right.” (20:52)
- “If Oregon hits a brick wall...that's Texas Tech’s sweet spot.” (15:20)
- “The padlock stat for Oregon outside of turnover margin...is going to be a lot of rushing efficiency-based stats.” (16:08)
Josh's Pick:
- Oregon to win and cover (“I simply believe Oregon is a better football team and they're going to rev the engine here a little bit.” 22:38)
1.2. Alabama vs. Indiana – Rose Bowl
(Starts ~26:02)
Key Points:
- Weather Impact: Anticipated flooding rains in Pasadena could affect game.
- Best Wins: Both teams claim the most impressive victories of the season (Alabama over Georgia; Indiana over Oregon & Ohio State).
- Alabama: Has survived as a one-dimensional, pass-first team; running game has been non-existent at times.
- Indiana: Elite run defense, disciplined play, and #1 in third-down efficiency.
- Critical Questions: Can Alabama execute a “precision-based tightrope walk” on offense? How can Indiana dominate in their typical style despite injuries?
Notable Analysis & Quotes:
- “Can a one-dimensional offense survive in the CFP? That is where we begin the preview.” (27:00)
- “I believe that Oklahoma game did something to Alabama.” (49:57)
- “There is a chance...the Oklahoma game did something to Alabama...maybe their rubber band moment happened.” (49:57)
Josh's Pick:
- Boldly takes Alabama to win outright despite most pundits favoring Indiana.
“I will take Alabama to go out to Pasadena and be the one that beats Indiana this year.” (51:23)
1.3. Georgia vs. Ole Miss – Sugar Bowl
(Starts ~51:23)
Key Points:
- Recent History: Rematch of a high-scoring affair (Georgia won 43-35); coach churn at Ole Miss after Lane Kiffin’s departure.
- QB Matchup: Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) is called “the most dangerous quarterback in the playoffs.”
- Georgia’s Strength: Sustained run game, major edge in coaching staff stability.
- Ole Miss Path to Upset: Rely on Chambliss’s dual-threat ability; big plays likely necessary for an upset.
- “I trust Kirby in these games, I trust him three times.” (1:01:55)
Notable Analysis & Quotes:
- “If they can get through this thing...I'd breathe a little sigh of relief that we got past that guy.” (1:01:01)
- “I just trust Kirby in these games...my third reason for this pick is I trust Kirby in these games.” (1:01:55)
Josh's Pick:
- Georgia to win and cover the spread, advancing to the Fiesta Bowl. (1:02:05)
1.4. Miami vs. Ohio State – Cotton Bowl
(Starts ~56:23)
Key Points:
- Narratives: Rumors of Miami superiority (“better lines, better QB” etc.) mostly unfounded; motivation factor for OSU.
- Key Questions: Was OSU’s loss to Indiana this year their “rubber band moment” (turning point) like losing to Michigan the previous season?
- QB Focus: Julian Sayin (Ohio State)—does he capitalize, or does Miami’s athletic defensive front disrupt the Buckeyes?
- Line of Scrimmage: Miami may have edges on both O-line and D-line, plus more experienced QB.
- Physicality: Arguably both teams' most physical test of the season.
Notable Analysis & Quotes:
- “This is not your usual 9.5-point spread...rarely do you look and think one team has a two-way edge on the line of scrimmage and the experience edge at quarterback and they're nearly a double-digit underdog.” (1:03:36)
- “I trust having been there, I trust that angle, and I will take Ohio State to win. I trust Ryan Day.” (1:09:51)
Josh's Pick:
- Ohio State to win, but Miami to cover the spread. Admits deep inner conflict about the pick. (1:09:41)
2. Dabo Swinney & Clemson’s Decline
(Begins ~80:10)
Key Discussion Points:
- Listener asks if it’s “crazy” to think Dabo isn’t the right guy for today’s CFB.
- Josh responds: “No, you are not,” breaking down how Clemson’s performance has slipped due to minimal adaptation to the transfer portal era, despite Dabo’s admirable values and past success.
- “The standard at Clemson is the standard because Dabo Swinney made it the standard...and they’ve become less.” (80:34)
- Despite every possible advantage and roster continuity, Clemson slumped to 7–6.
- “Anyone who believes that this is temporary...why should I expect any better?” (82:49)
- Dabo’s focus on building men and upholding values is genuine, but unwillingness to adapt is a critical flaw:
- “There are other people who...have properly aligned values but are also able to adapt. To me, that's another critical value.” (86:35)
Notable Quote from Dabo Swinney (85:23):
“That’s my calling in life...I know everybody wants me to win football games, but it’s more about how I win. That’s what matters to me more than anything...to use this platform of football and education to build great men through this game that we love.”
— Dabo Swinney, [85:23]
3. Best Coaching Hires of the Cycle
(Starts ~73:39)
Headliner Hires:
- Virginia Tech: Landing James Franklin after Penn State fired him—“pound for pound, Virginia Tech nailed this coaching cycle better than anyone did.” (74:17)
- Penn State: Despite misgivings about the process, securing Matt Campbell—“...they killed it by naming his replacement [after Franklin].” (76:13)
- Michigan: Hiring Kyle Whittingham after Harbaugh’s scandal—“pound for pound, this was one of the best hires of the cycle...best option in a terrible situation.” (78:21)
- Auburn: Josh is “irrationally excited” about Alex Golesh’s hire. “He’s got the right blend of new school mentality but old school values...” (79:48)
4. Transfer Portal Activity & Impacts
(Starts ~92:16)
Key Insights:
- Transfer portal opens January 2nd; significant undercurrent of movement already (especially from G5 programs and Iowa State, which is losing 16 starters).
- Portal moves are now baked into the hiring process—“if we get this guy, maybe his quarterback comes with him.”
- Teams to watch for portal activity: Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, LSU.
Notable Observation:
- “I don’t eat, sleep and breathe the portal, but this is an integral part of this game now...and as long as it is, we’ve got to be on top of it.” (96:00)
5. Memorable Moments & Quotes
- On Prediction Dilemmas:
“I am in a bad, bad way emotionally, mentally, spiritually...God’s not making these picks for me, I wish he would, but I don’t think he’s going to tonight.” (07:02) - On Dabo Swinney:
“There’s an end to every run, and if you’re not going to get with the program here...you will die as it pertains to being a playoff contender. It's a tale as old as time.” (88:01) - On Coaching Hires:
“Pound for pound, this was one of the best coaching cycles for off-the-radar schools.” (79:27)
6. Timestamps for Key Segments
- CFP Quarterfinals Introduction: 07:32
- Texas Tech vs. Oregon Analysis: 09:10–23:19
- Alabama vs. Indiana Analysis: 26:02–51:23
- Georgia vs. Ole Miss Analysis: 51:23–56:23
- Miami vs. Ohio State Analysis: 56:23–73:39
- Best Coaching Hires Segment: 73:39–80:10
- Dabo Swinney & Clemson Segment: 80:10–92:16
- Transfer Portal Discussion: 92:16–98:19
7. Episode Takeaways
- Pate’s CFP picks: Oregon, Alabama (upset), Georgia, and Ohio State (with Miami covering).
- Clemson’s Direction: Legitimate concerns for the future unless Dabo fundamentally changes his approach to roster management.
- Hiring Wins: Virginia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, and Auburn stand above in the coaching carousel.
- Portal Chaos: Transfer portal is reshaping the sport; monitoring its ebbs and flows is essential.
Original Tone & Closing:
The show is a blend of sharp analysis, humility about predictions (“I know it’s right now, it’s Sunday…it will be frowned upon but it’s not impossible [to change my pick]…” 1:09:41), and honest introspection about the sport's state. Pate encourages listeners to stay tuned for rapid reactions post-games and to engage with the channel for the latest, real-time insights as the postseason unfolds.