Josh Pate's College Football Show

Episode: CFP Rankings Reaction + Conference Title Predictions & Penn State Coaching Search
Date: December 3, 2025
Host: Josh Pate (iHeartPodcasts)

Episode Overview

Josh Pate delivers a rapid-fire, candid breakdown of just-released College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings, predicts outcomes for upcoming conference championship games, and dissects the ongoing Penn State head coaching search. The episode is packed with behind-the-scenes intel and logic-driven opinions—eschewing hot takes for grounded analysis. Pate critiques the playoff committee’s reasoning, argues for Miami over Notre Dame, discusses championship matchups (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12), and laments Penn State’s search dysfunction—all in his signature irreverent, passionate tone.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. College Football Playoff Rankings Reaction

Timestamps: 02:00–23:00

• Immediate Take: Pate calls the newest Playoff rankings affirming in some ways, deeply confounding in others:

  • "It's a disaster and I will explain the latest happenings." (03:23)

• Alabama/Notre Dame/BYU Dynamics:

  • Alabama moved to #9 above Notre Dame (#10); Pate wasn't surprised and saw it coming via betting markets.
  • "This was never going to be an Alabama, Brigham Young deal... It was always going to be Notre Dame or Brigham Young." (05:13)
  • Committee explanations annoy Pate: "Just say the committee decided to put Alabama above Notre Dame... Don't open your mouth. Just don't open the mouth." (07:41)

• Notre Dame vs. Miami Debate:

  • Pate is adamant Miami should be above Notre Dame due to head-to-head result and comparable resumes.
  • "Notre Dame being ranked ahead of Miami is a joke... If I've got a head to head result—if the resumes are even remotely comparable—the head to head result is going to carry the day." (11:19)
  • Warns that Duke winning the ACC could create a scenario where a major conference is left out, further exposing committee inconsistencies.

• Head-to-Head Emphasis:

  • Pate insists merit and head-to-head results must matter more than abstract arguments when resumes are close.
  • "I found four and a half hours of game tape. If you want to watch the broadcast copy that shows you Miami beating Notre Dame." (13:13)

2. SEC Championship Game Preview: Alabama vs. Georgia

Timestamps: 25:56–41:30

• Championship Stakes & Trends:
  • Notes dominance: SEC champ has been Alabama or Georgia 11 of the last 12 years (except 2019 LSU).
  • Winner gets a valuable Playoff first-round bye.
• Key Storylines:
  • Injury updates for both teams; both entering banged up.
  • Focus on regression to the mean in rematch: "That first game, Bama was just lethal on third down [13/19]… do we have a regression to the mean? If you do, big advantage Georgia." (26:51)
• Position Battles & Keys:
  • Receivers singled out as 'game-breakers'—"kind of weird if you think about the history of these two programs."
  • Georgia's improved pass rush and potential offensive line issues spotlighted.
• Model Prediction:
  • Pate's model slightly prefers Georgia: “FanDuel’s got Georgia by two and a half, model a little higher... model has Georgia by 4.” (40:13)
  • Pate cautiously trusts the model, given uncertainty: “I have no feel on the game... injury situation especially muddies it up for me… I'll just go with the model. The model says Georgia wins and covers. I'll say Georgia wins and covers.” (40:20)

3. Big Ten Championship: Ohio State vs. Indiana

Timestamps: 41:34–51:50

• Rematch Context:
  • Ohio State previously beat Indiana 38-15; Indiana now a legit #2, "I can't believe Indiana has become this good." (42:16)
  • "If they only manage 68 yards passing again, I think the result may look the same." (42:22)
• Critical Matchups:
  • Indiana must scale its passing game vs. top-ranked OSU pass defense.
  • Their rushing attack (top 10 nationally) faces OSU’s elite run defense; “The paper here… says Ohio State has a discernible advantage here." (43:56)
• Ohio State Strengths:
  • “All the other contenders just keep giving us more questions. Ohio State just keeps giving us more answers.” (45:20, quoting Joel Klatt)
• Prediction:
  • Model shakes out, Ohio State favored by 4.5—Pate expects OSU to win and cover unless Indiana delivers a shock.

4. Penn State Coaching Search

Timestamps: 55:26–68:30

• Situation Summary:
  • Penn State still without a head coach after firing James Franklin early "to get a jump start."
  • Kalani Sitake declines; 27 apparent rejections nationally lampooned by Pate.
  • Pate harshly criticizes AD Pat Kraft: “If you don't have certainty that you can upgrade from your current situation, but you hit flush on your current situation anyway, you're probably not equipped to be the athletic director of a major program just calling it like it is.” (61:18)
• Recruiting Fallout:
  • Signing day imminent; Penn State’s class ranks 128th nationally.
  • Warns of a desperate need to portal in “60 guys” to have a competitive roster in 2026.
• Fit vs. Fantasy:
  • “You chased unicorns for a while that you had little to no shot at getting...” (65:14)
  • Urges considering Matt Campbell, noting his underappreciated track record.
• Outlook:
  • Situation called "that disastrous"—Pate genuinely worries about the program’s near- and long-term prospects.

5. Big 12 Championship: Texas Tech vs. Brigham Young

Timestamps: 68:30–77:49

• Game Setup:
  • Both programs thriving; Brigham Young just re-signed Kalani Sitake; Joey Maguire at TTU earns fresh deal.
• First Meeting Recap:
  • Texas Tech dominated the first matchup (29-7); BYU needs to flip turnover margin and establish ground game to have a chance.
  • TTU’s offensive explosiveness, especially early, makes comebacks hard.
• Stat Highlight:
  • “Texas Tech grabs these games early and they're over. They’re one of the best first half offenses in the country... number one in first half explosive passes of 25+ yards.” (73:30)
• Prediction:
  • Model likes BYU with the points, but Pate sides with Texas Tech GLARINGLY:
    • "I'm going to take Texas Tech to win and cover. And if they do, I think we're looking at them possibly locking down a first round bye." (76:30)
• Playoff Ripple Effects:
  • TTU win likely bumps BYU out of Playoff conversation, potentially leading to an ACC “doomsday” scenario.

6. JP Poll & Power Ratings

Timestamps: 77:49–83:00

• Clarification:
  • The JP Poll is a power rating, not a ranking. Reflects who would be favored against whom on a neutral field, NOT who “deserves” Playoff spots.
  • Texas is #10, well-respected by model and bookmakers but not Playoff-viable by resume.
• Top Ratings:
  • 1. Ohio State
  • 2. Indiana
  • 3. Georgia
  • 4. Texas A&M
  • 5. Oregon
  • (Notre Dame at 6, Alabama at 8, BYU at 16)
• Gap Insights:
  • OSU carries a 4–4.5 point edge over Indiana; "the gap between Ohio State at number one and let's just say Missouri [#20]... 15 to 16 points."

7. Notable Achievements & Show Milestones

Timestamps: 23:00, 50:00, 66:00

• 500,000 YouTube Subscribers:
  • Achieved live during the show: “Look at that. Whomst amongst us would have thought that 500,000 subscribers would happen while we were live on air? We would." (50:41)
  • Pate reflects on show’s journey—from 20 live viewers in Columbus, GA to 12,000+ now: "The reason I was so steadfast that this would work was because I am one of you guys. I am of the college football diehard audience, and I knew I wasn't being served." (51:22)
  • Encourages listeners: "If you love what you do... just go do it. You can actually change your life in the process. I know, because you've helped me change mine and change the staffs." (52:00)
• Upcoming Live Show in Atlanta:
  • Night before SEC Championship at the Buckhead Theater.

8. College Football Coaching Carousel Discussion

Timestamps: 55:26–68:30, 83:47–88:00

• Kentucky:
  • Mark Stoops fired, Will Stein (Oregon OC) hired: “Love the concept...stop trying to find a sure thing...You gotta go land the next guy."
  • Observations from sitting in Stein's meetings: “Dude is really sharp offensively and his team plays accordingly.”
• Ole Miss & Lane Kiffin:
  • Reacts to Cole Cubelic’s critique of Kiffin leaving for LSU: “If you think he quit on his team, it's because he did, he did quit on his team...it's at least hypocritical, if not unethical.” (85:38)
  • Recognizes the complexity and calendar challenges, but “it just becomes obvious what's happening.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the committee’s explanations:
  "Pregnant pauses and outright dead air would be better than me listening to you tell me Alabama elevated because they were at one point up 17 to nothing on Auburn." (07:24)

• On frustration with Notre Dame-Miami debate:
  "Miami ought to have been ahead of Notre Dame already. And if it comes time on Selection Sunday...I still think they may put Miami in over Notre Dame." (15:32)

• On Texas's Playoff hopes:
  "Texas hasn't earned their way into the playoff... If you're Texas and you're trying to make the playoff, you got to meet a higher bar than that, and you didn't." (19:33)

• On head-to-head results:
  "You want to throw me data points? I got four and a half hours of game tape of Miami beating Notre Dame." (13:13)

• On Penn State’s process:
  “If you don't have certainty that you can upgrade from your current situation, but you hit flush on your current situation anyway, you're probably not equipped to be the athletic director of a major program.” (61:18)

• On 500k subscribers:
  "We get to deliver to you exactly what you want, which is sort of a college football show that's free of, like, any kind of corporate interference. No one ever walks in and dictates what we have to say." (51:55)

Key Segment Timestamps

• CFP Reaction:
  • Playoff Rankings Discussion: 02:00–23:00
  • Notre Dame-Miami Argument: 09:00–15:30
• SEC Title Game Preview: 25:56–41:30
• Big Ten Title Game Preview: 41:34–51:50
• 500k Subscriber Milestone Reflection: 50:41–52:00
• Penn State Coaching Search Analysis: 55:26–68:30
• Big 12 Title Game Preview: 68:30–77:49
• JP Poll Overview: 77:49–83:00
• Lane Kiffin/Coaching Carousel Talk: 83:47–88:00

Tone & Style

Pate delivers his analysis with passion, candor, and the dry wit his audience expects. He’s direct, sometimes dismissive of official statements, and often uses humor and homespun analogies (“memaw had an age-old saying about being foolish and opening your mouth and removing all doubt”) to punctuate his points. Listener engagement and the sense of community are constant motifs.

Summary for the Uninitiated

If you missed the show, know that Josh Pate offers an unvarnished, logic-first reaction to CFP rankings, lambasts committee rationalizations, fervently advocates for head-to-head results in Playoff debates, and asserts Miami’s rightful place above Notre Dame. He previews championship games with a blend of stats, model insights, and on-the-ground observations, critiques Penn State’s coaching search as a “disaster,” and celebrates a major show milestone. The episode is a whirlwind tour-de-force that eschews corporate hot takes for unfiltered football talk—the kind fans actually want.