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Josh Pate
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Matt Rogers
This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
Bowen Yang
This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
Matt Rogers
Hey Bowen, it's gift season.
Josh Pate
Ugh.
Bowen Yang
Stressing me out. Why are the people I love so hard to shop for?
Matt Rogers
Probably cause they only make boring gift guides that are totally uninspired. Except for the guide we made in.
Bowen Yang
Partnership with Marshalls, where premium gifts meet incredible value.
Josh Pate
It's.
Matt Rogers
It's giving gifts with categories like Best Gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto.
Bowen Yang
Or Best gifts for me that were so thoughtful I really shouldn't have Check.
Matt Rogers
Out the guide on marshalls.com and gift.
Bowen Yang
The good stuff at Marshalls.
Jacob Goldstein
This is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out odoo@odoo.com that's o d o o dot com.
Josh Pate
Yeah, you're trying to figure stuff out. I'm trying to figure stuff out. Every time you think you've watched this sport long enough, you have immersed yourself in college football long enough. You just, you know the ins and outs. You know how it works. You got the committee chair that comes along and sits there and talks to Rhys Davis in the playoff rankings reveal show and he just spins your head 360 degrees on your neck. We're jam packed. We're high atop a frigid downtown. Nashville, Tennessee. Even Jesse's cold. He grew up in Pennsylvania. More on the happenings in that state later, but it is pretty cold down here. It is Tuesday, December 2, the year of our Lord 2025. The playoff rankings just got revealed before we went on air. And in the words of Stanley Hudson, when I'm asked, do I have something that I want to say about it? Oh yes, I do. Conference championship predictions also happening on the show tonight. We have got a brand new JP Poll on the show tonight. We've got just an abject disaster unfolding. Friend of the program Ralph Russo said he was going to stop short of calling it a disaster today, but I am far less responsible than Ralph Russo. It's a disaster and I will explain the latest happenings. You know Kalani Sitaki, he's going to choose Brigham Young to stay at Brigham Young over Penn State. So who's going to take the job? You could be offered the Penn State job before the night is done. All that plus a huge developing story that we're monitoring that I'm about to show you in just a second. Springfield, Illinois is tuned in tonight. Cleveland, Ohio is tuned in. Fairburn, Georgia. Fort Worth, Texas. Do you hear those paper pops? I wouldn't do it thrice immunity unless there was something really, really big on the horizon. Bradley, show it to him. The drive to 500,000 subscribers on this channel has been on since around the time James Franklin was fired, which is about when we hit 400k. It looks like the channel may get to 500,000 subs before Penn State has a head coach. We put out the poll today. What happens first, 87% of you and counting think we're going to hit 500k. We are less than 800 away as we speak. We've never even shown the live sub counter. I didn't know we could do this until 20 minutes ago. We but that's where we are right now. So if you're watching, I'm about to dive into the show. If you've held out and I don't know why you would have, it's free. Doesn't sign you up for anything. But if you've held out for this long, now is the time. Subscribe. Jesse thinks we can hit it by midnight. I don't know. We'll see. That's pretty lofty goal, but we're a pretty lofty show. It's moving, said Jesse. It's moving. You know, it's fun to watch this in real time. I've never seen this before. Anyway, we'll check in on the live counter throughout the show. We have much more serious, sad, somber, egregious things to discuss. And of course by that I mean the playoff rankings. Bradley, don't include all that in the in the individual cut. Here's the end point. The College Football Playoff rankings just got dropped in our lap and it affirmed some things that I thought I knew and it just confounded me. On some other things. I know a lot of you want to talk about Miami and Notre Dame and I'm going to in a second. I promised to unload on that the other night. Many of you called me on the fact that I just completely forgot to, because I did completely forget to. I'm not going to forget tonight. But first things first. Bama and Notre Dame flip spots. Some people were surprised by that. I wasn't, frankly. I thought Alabama belonged above Notre Dame the entire time. But that's irrelevant because the past is the past if you follow the odds market on this sort of thing. It became pretty obvious throughout last night and today someone knew something. Don't even begin to ask me how when I'm College Football Playoff commissioner, the leaks will stop. But I'm not. And so the information was apparently flowing and the odds market got a hold of it. Alabama's nine. Notre Dame is 10. Which brings me to the point that I made Sunday night. This was never going to be an Alabama, Brigham Young deal. Like if Alabama loses the SEC championship game Saturday. I never thought it was going to be an either or Alabama or Brigham Young being in. I thought it was always going to be Notre Dame or Brigham Young. Now, I mentioned Alabama losing the SEC championship game. What we really need to focus on is what happens if BYU wins the Big 12 title game. That's what we really got to hone in on right here. Because there was a thought when Alabama was 10th and Notre Dame was 9th that could Alabama fall out of that thing? Could Brigham Young jump Alabama? No, they're going to jump Notre Dame, which is the way it should be, by the way. Notre Dame's got a lot of benefit for existing the way they do. And I've never pushed back on it. You have never heard me go on this show and say Notre Dame needs to join a conference. I probably never will say it. I don't believe that I actually fully respect Notre Dame's independence. If I was a college football program, and I am Pate State Freights, we're undefeated on the year, we're independent. We're not joining a conference. The rest of you needed to to survive. We didn't. So I got no problem with Notre Dame's independence. However, it does not come without risk. And the risk is this, this moment right here. You may finally see Notre Dame get penalized for sitting at home on conference championship Saturday. If that's the way it happens, that's the way it happens. There's not this protective orb around South Bend, Indiana that prevents them from the shrapnel of college football playoff selection season. I mean, they could get cut in the neck the same as the rest of us. So it was never going to be Alabama and Notre Dame or Alabama, Brigham Young. It was going to be Notre Dame or Brigham Young. Now, the discussion points, as much as I do agree with Alabama being bumped above Notre Dame, are insane. Here's the only thing you need to say. All right, I need to step in. I need to intercede for Hunter Jurecheck. That's become. That became obvious in the Arkansas coaching search, but it's especially obvious now. Just say the committee decided to put Alabama above Notre Dame. Just say that. I don't care if it leaves dead air and Rhys Davis is left looking at you saying, is he okay? Someone check on him. I don't care because that would be better. Pregnant pauses and outright dead air would be better than me listening to you tell me Alabama elevated because they were at one point up 17 to nothing on Auburn. Correct me if I'm wrong, Jesse, they also ended up being tied with Auburn in that same game. It was a rivalry game, which apparently is a data point now. Also, Alabama ran the ball better. These are actual phrases that came out of his mouth when it came to explaining why Alabama elevated. Dude, just shut up. Just say they elevated because we decided they need to elevate. That may leave a little mystery or maybe a little suspense, but memaw had an age old saying about being foolish and opening your mouth and removing all doubt. Don't. Don't open your mouth. Just don't open the mouth. Okay? Now as for this whole Notre Dame, Miami thing, take a deep breath. It's been 30 minutes. I tried to cool down. I can't cool down on it. The way Notre Dame and Miami are being discussed together is a joke. Notre Dame being ranked ahead of Miami is a joke. A lot of the conversation piece around why Notre Dame is ranked above Miami continues to be a joke to me. They were once again ranked ahead of Miami tonight. There is a thought in the room that. Now that's set. Now, if you were watching the playoff rankings reveal show, they brought Hunter Jurecheck on and he fumbled his way through admitting no. That doesn't mean they're set. Idle teams can still move after conference championship Saturday. But even then he said they could. He didn't say they would. So how in the world, Could Miami still be in this? There is a way. I don't think Miami's fully cooked yet. And here's how it would happen. Miami should be the biggest fan of Duke football in the history of mankind right now. Follow me here for a second. There is a world where Brigham Young loses, okay, so they're out of the way and then it's just Miami and Notre Dame next to each other. Imagine Duke winning the ACC championship game. They are currently about a field goal or a two and a half point dog. So it's very conceivable if Duke wins the ACC championship game, the aforementioned ACC doomsday scenario goes into effect. And that is Duke's not going to make the playoff because they won't be one of the five highest ranked conference champs. And so the committee would be left sitting there having already had the Notre Dame Miami debate in front of them to begin with, which is egregious on the surface. That Miami doesn't already get the nod over Notre Dame. Not only will they have that, they'll also have this added sledgehammer to their face at the 11th hour of the idea that we either put Miami in or there will be no representation from an entire Power 4 conference. And as much as you may be sitting there thinking, oh well, tough luck, that's not why this thing was built. This thing was not built to vault two G5 teams into a 12 team playoff. It wasn't built for that. And so imagine Selection Sunday. Brigham Young loses, they're out of the way. It is Notre Dame, Miami, boom, smack dab next to each other and Duke has won the ACC championship game. So you're having the Notre Dame Miami debate again. And you have the added benefit of knowing if we don't put Miami in, there is no ACC team in. That's a nightmare. Or what you could do is you could just look at it and say like you did with Alabama Notre Dame tonight. We had the wrong team above another team all along because we have continued to beat our heads against the door when it comes to Notre Dame Miami. I don't need you to question my intelligence on this. I don't need you to throw data points in my face. I've seen all the arguments. I've heard the Notre Dame case articulated. It's wrong. It's wrong. And here's how I know it's wrong. Because I watched the two teams play on a football field, okay? So this is a blanket policy that could apply to anyone. If I've got a head to head result. If the resumes are even remotely comparable. The head to head result is going to carry the day. I'll tell you why. Because this is competitive sport. It is merit based competitive sport. I don't need you coming to me saying, oh well, the head to head does matter. It's just not the only thing that matters. It's. It better be times 10 mattering over everything else or else I don't really know why we're playing the games. Okay, so you're either going to come to me and say Notre Dame's resume is unequivocally head and shoulders better than Miami, which it's not, or I'm going to look you in the eye and say, great, cool. You found fractions of inches on that little piece of paper. I found four and a half hours of game tape. If you want to watch the broadcast copy that shows you Miami beating Notre Dame. You know, Josh, that was a long time ago. Yeah, unless you tell me. We've got preseason games in college football now, as far as I can tell is a regular season game. There is, there is an L right there, right before the next L that Notre Dame toted so got all the respect in the world for Notre Dame. It would be great for my business if Notre Dame were in the playoff. But it's not made for tv. It's not a production. It's competitive sport. I know in reality it is made for tv. But if you really care about the purity and the sanctity, we still use those words around here of college football and the integrity of the bracket. Miami ought to have been ahead of Notre Dame already. And if it comes time on selection Sunday for that committee to decide whether they're going to vault Miami over Notre Dame, especially if Duke wins the ACC or have no ACC representation, I still think they may put Miami in over Notre Dame. Let's talk about Alabama for a second. Alabama is going to be in the playoff. There's a lot of debate about this right now and I think it's pretty foolish. The question tonight was sort of answered about whether Alabama would jump Notre Dame or not. Like if there's one team that's got to fall out if Brigham Young WINS the Big 12, is it going to be Alabama if they lose in the SEC title game or is it going to be Notre Dame? It's going to be Notre Dame. I can answer that question for you. I think the committee answered that question for you tonight. But the other question around Alabama is, well, okay, if, if they're not going to fall out of the Playoff. If they lose, which they're not going to. Well, how high could they jump if they win? I heard another scenario floated out there tonight that boy, if. If Alabama wins the SEC championship game, look what that opens the door for. That opens the door for three Big Ten teams to get buys. No, it doesn't. No, it doesn't. All that's going to happen is Alabama is going to take one of those top four spots, as they should. I don't even have a problem with it. You need to understand what's in play here, all right? The SEC championship game and the Big Ten championship game. Those two things matter more than any other properties in the room outside of the playoff itself. Now, we're going to talk adult talk here. So if we got any children, you just need to earmuff it for a second because this may not make you feel good, but I'm just going to tell you the way it is. The SEC and the Big Ten are better than the rest of college football. Everyone knows it. To suggest otherwise is just to pretend or live in some fantasy world. They've got a ton invested in their conference championship games, therefore inclusion in those games, participation in those games, whether you win it or lose it, has to carry maximum significance or else you erode very quickly the credibility and integrity and value of those games and people stop caring and teams stop wanting to play in them. You've already got a little bit of that going on now, but I want you to imagine what would happen to exclamate that, to amplify that if an Alabama lost Saturday and got bumped out, or if they won the conference championship Saturday but only got bumped up to five. So you put an at large team ahead of them from another conference. It's not going to happen. That's not going to happen that way. But the other thing to consider in the Big Ten is that's also why Ohio State and Indiana both know, regardless of the outcome Saturday, they're going to be in the top four. Why? Because they're playing in the conference championship game in the Big Ten, that's why. So it really doesn't matter. What matters is the order of seating. Whoever wins that game will be number one. Whoever loses, it probably doesn't drop below two. But I can virtually assure you if Alabama wins Saturday, they're jumping into that top four. Some guy came at me and Bud Elliot earlier today, of all people, came at me and Bud Elliott wanted to bet us 1,000American dollars on this. And look, we wanted to go for more than 1k when there's free money on the table, kids. You got to take it. Very rarely are those sorts of propositions offered to you in life. We have thus far gotten no response from that gentleman. Texas and Vandy don't appear to have a path. A lot of thoughts about this feel really bad for Vanderbilt. I don't know what would have happened tonight to give them a path. I just don't know what the scenario would have been. And I look, Texas jumped up a few spots. That's really been one of the talking points. That's ground, past tense of grind. Ground my gears a little bit because it kind of goes back to the same thing we're talking about with Notre Dame, the eye test. The eye test. Kubelik pressed me on this on his own radio show early this morning. We were talking about Miami, Notre Dame. He said, who do you think is better? Who would you pick if they played right now, Miami or Notre Dame? I pick Notre Dame. I don't care who I'd pick. I don't care who I think the better team is. Just like with Texas. Do I think there are 12 teams in the country better than Texas? Course I don't. Who do I think would give Ohio State a better run for their money, Texas or Brigham Young? Well, of course, I think Texas could potentially, because they do have the personnel where they could do that. That's not how this works. You don't get power rated into the playoff. You earn your way into the playoff. Texas hasn't earned their way into the playoff. And it would be another thing if you had scheduled up, which they did, and challenged Ohio State in week one, which they did, and lost a couple of more really competitive games but dominated elsewhere. They didn't. They lost to a really bad Florida team. It just. I. Look, you don't need to sell me on how tough it is to play in the swamp. And when Florida's clicking earlier in the season and they've got all those athletes all over the place, they were way better than their final record indicated. I know that. I picked them to beat you that day. I expected them to play at that level. I'm not holding you to a pretty good standard. If you're Texas and you're trying to make the playoff, you got to meet a higher bar than that, and you didn't. And you really messed around on the road against Kentucky and you messed around on the road against Mississippi State. I'd love to paint the path. I'd love to pave the path for Texas to get in. It's not there. You didn't earn your way in. The body of work's not there. And trust me, anyone who watches this show, anyone familiar with the model knows if there was a show out there that was going to paint a path for Texas to get in this thing, I do it. It's just not there. It is just not there. That win at the end against A and M gave him a fighting chance, but you needed other dominoes to fall and they just didn't. So it's not there. The, the G5, the American champ, I think is a lock at this point, I would say to get in. But man, the difference in the six or the seven seed right now, if you just take a look at the way the bracket sets up the different, you know, A and M for instance, A&M seventh right now. Ole Miss jumped and hats off to the committee, by the way, apparently saying we could not care less that our own protocol allows us to drop below Ole Miss because their coaches left. We're not going to do that. I assume that's what they mean if they vault Ole Miss up one spot. So look at the difference in six and seven as it relates to projected first round matchups. So you may think to yourself, oh, who cares? Six, seven doesn't matter. We'll get a first round home playoff game either way. Yeah, well, it's the difference in the six seed playing an ACC team or a G5 team versus the seven seed playing Notre Dame. Right now there are three touchdowns worth of a difference in point spread of you playing one versus you playing the other. So you, you got that six seed. You will face tougher competition in your practices during the week than you would on that game day versus being the 7 seed. Speaking of hypotheticals, FanDuel has hit us up and they have let us know what these hypotheticals would be. And this is just going off the way the bracket is set up right now. So if Alabama played at Oklahoma right now, Bama is a 1 1/2 point favorite in Norman. Notre Dame at Texas A and M would be a pick them. And then we got a combination of potential matchups here. So James Madison at Oregon would be Oregon -18 and a half. Oregon would be favored by 19 and a half against North Texas. Oregon by 24 and a half against Tulane. And then we got a few of them with Ole Miss too. Virginia at Ole miss. Ole Miss minus 13 and a half. North Texas at Ole miss, Ole Miss minus 13. Tulane at Ole Miss Ole Miss minus 18. I know everyone's going to have thoughts on especially the Alabama part, the Notre Dame, Miami part. And the, the dumbest part about all this is like there are obviously no sure things here. But everyone who appears to be making their case in the Miami or the Notre Dame side of things continues to like beat a gavel on the table. This is not even debatable. It's not even remotely close. And I especially don't understand that argument from the Notre Dame side of things. My entire reason for advocating Miami being above Notre Dame is because I think it is close to. And there's like this certain bubble where if we get inside the bubble, that means the two cluster, the two data points there in the cluster are at least comparable. And if they're comparable, you need ask only one other question. Do we have a head to head result between these two dots here? We do. Or whichever dot won, that's the one that goes above the dot that lost. That's it. That's how this really should work. Of course, things can't be that simple in college football. Happy to have you in with us. Quick Live counter. Jesse, just because we have this technology, I was just curious as to where we were. Look at that. We had like 200 since the start of the show. Let me tell you, ladies and gentlemen, when I first started doing this show, we were doing it in Columbus, Georgia. It was a really big deal for us to have 20 live viewers per show concurrently. 20 live viewers. So we have like 11,000, 12,000 watching live right now. It's a big deal. And you just have to stop and think about sometimes how far the show has come because of you guys. We were able to take it from Columbus to Nashville mainly because of kwiktrip fueling us the whole way, fueling the show, figuratively and literally. Quick Trip has fueled us. They are amongst us. They are our people. And if you don't believe me, you ought to go follow Quick Trip on Twitter because I mean, look, they basically act as if I'm running their account and I'm not. But QT Joe, Quick Trip Joe good, close friend of the program, our ambassador to Kwik Trip, if you will, or kwiktrip's ambassador to Pate State. Really sharp. You know what else he has? Cold brew on tap, very competitive prices at the pump. And also world class trail mix. And also some food right off the grill and a smiling face at the checkout counter. We appreciate Quick Trip. They'll take us right down to Atlanta, Georgia this weekend for the SEC championship game. And speaking of which, I lost my. Oh no, I didn't lose my lip balm. I thought I was going to have to get a little messy here and put on the squeeze bottle kind. No, we're good. Dew point's at an all time low in Nashville tonight. And Doug, here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug. Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us? Cut the camera. They see us. Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty Liberty. Liberty. Liberty Savings Fairy Underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates, excludes Massachusetts.
Matt Rogers
This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
Bowen Yang
This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
Matt Rogers
Hey, Bowen, it's gift season.
Bowen Yang
Oh, stressing me out. Why are all the people I love so hard to shop for like me?
Jacob Goldstein
Exactly.
Josh Pate
Exactly, honey.
Matt Rogers
I'm easy. But you're right, holiday gifting is stressful.
Bowen Yang
And all the gift guides out there are boring and uninspired.
Matt Rogers
Wait, what about the guide we made.
Bowen Yang
In partnership with Marshalls, where premium gifts mean incredible value?
Matt Rogers
It's Giving Gifts. A series of guides filled with premium gifts at great value for everyone on your list.
Bowen Yang
Yeah, cause if I see one more for the dad who likes golf list, I'm out.
Jacob Goldstein
Right?
Matt Rogers
How about something for the people who actually surprise you with categories?
Bowen Yang
Like Best Gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto.
Josh Pate
Psst.
Bowen Yang
She wants a pair of stilettos.
Matt Rogers
Or best gifts for me that were so thoughtful I really shouldn't have dying.
Bowen Yang
To see what those are.
Matt Rogers
And you won't believe their prices.
Bowen Yang
Just wait till you see what else is in there. It's basically a one stop shop for everyone.
Matt Rogers
You know, I started bookmarking half the list for myself.
Bowen Yang
Honestly, this is the guy for the 2025 holiday gifting season.
Matt Rogers
Check out the guide on marshalls.com it's.
Bowen Yang
Giving gifts Gift the good stuff at Marshalls.
Jacob Goldstein
This is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out odoo@odoo.com. that's O D O O.com Limu Gamu.
Josh Pate
And Doug Here we have the limu emu in its natural habitat helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug. Uh, Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us. Cut the camera. They see us. Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Fer by Liberty Mutual Insurance Co. Affiliates excludes Massachusetts SEC Championship game this Saturday. Alabama vs. Georgia, 4pm Eastern Time. Kickoff from the Georgia Dome. Scratch that. The Georgia Dome has apparently died. It is no longer with us. And so Mercedes Benz stadium will have to do. Ten of the last 11 SEC champions are either Alabama or Georgia. And stats and info tells me one of these teams has to win this game. Therefore, 12 or 11 out of the last 12 SEC champs will have come either Bama or Georgia. And the only exception, 2019 LSU. Some are asking, why does this game matter? Why does this game matter? Josh? Well, number one, it's the SEC championship game. Do we need to get Kirby Smart on the horn? Kirby Smart is on the very short list of candidates. If we ever decide to hire a head coach at PA State, guy just gets it. Longtime veteran of the show, appeared on the show many times, but he sat there the other day, said, it's the SEC championship. Like, don't you people care about that anymore? And then someone asked him about all these injuries, said, well, if you, if you worry about injuries, you don't even practice. You get a scared football team if you're worried about injuries. So it matters because it's the SEC championship. It also matters because the winner of this thing's going to get a first round bite. Yes. Even if it's Alabama. And the third thing is that gives you some rest. And that is especially imperative for both of these teams because they are beat to death. I think they'll both have 11 on the field at the time Saturday, but I don't really know. Kirby's 1 and 7 versus Alabama as the head coach at Georgia. So we already saw this game happen. We were at the game in Athens. How much does September matter? How much does that first game matter? Because we got, we got a couple of games this Saturday that are rematches of regular season games. That first game, Bama was just lethal. On third down, there were 13 of 19. Georgia was two of eight. Now, a lot of times when you have an outcome, any given outcome, the winning team probably did some things above and beyond what they averaged doing in that stat category. So with Alabama 13 of 19, I mean they're pretty good on third down, but they're not always that good on third down. Georgia 2 of 8, they're not always that bad on third down. Both of them are top 30 in that category. When you have the rematch, the age old question is always, do we have a progression and regression back to the mean? If you do big advantage Georgia here, there's no guarantee it happens. That's why it's a key to victory and not an outright prediction. Ty Simpson was 16 of 24 in this game. If anyone remembers, it wasn't that long ago he sliced Georgia up pretty good. He was 16 of 24 in the first half against Georgia. He had 196 and two touchdowns in the first half against Georgia. Now anyone who's watched Alabama offensively as of late would understand with their own eyes. Ty Simpson, not bad, just seems to have regressed a little bit. Probably banged up, everyone is at this point, but the play has regressed a little bit. He's missing Josh Cuevas, who pound for pound is one of the most important offensive players they've had. Georgia will shed no tears because they're missing important players as well. Jam Miller, I don't know if he's going to play. If he does play far less than 100%. Again, no tears from Georgia. Anyway, pass pro has been an issue because of that, especially against Auburn last week. So again, that's one of the keys to being really lethal on third down. That's one of the keys to being really lethal through the air in the first half like he was the first time. Do we have a regression to the mean? And then when we talk about pressure, let's talk about Georgia. The Georgia pass rush is the most important facet of this game. To me it's a fundamental difference that could spell the difference between the first game and this game. They didn't sack Ty Simpson the first game. They didn't even pressure him enough in the first game. But their havoc rate over the last half of the season has been over 20% two of their last three games and really could have been against the FCS dial it up game, but they chose not to. But against Texas and Georgia Tech, if you watched Georgia, they got after the quarterback to a degree that they did not in the first half of the season. And that just goes back to the whole Kirby Smart never stop coaching, never stop working, never stop scheming, never stop developing even during the season. Different angles, different approaches and it's just you're not going to reinvent yourself on the fly during the season. But what you can do is you can just keep coaching the you know what out of your team to find fractions of inches and squeezing the sponge that much harder to just get a couple of more drops out of it. Because in these kinds of games like they play with Alabama, they're always one possession games. This game absolutely profiles and as that Georgia's favorite by two and a half. So there are two game breaker spots that I'll have a close eye on. In this one, they're actually both at the receiver position, which is kind of weird if you think about the history of these two programs. It used to be Kirby and Nick Saban and it used to be line of scrimmage man who can run the ball. And each of them looked the other in the eye and it was like they were looking in the mirror. And you fast forward several years and Alabama's ability to break this game. If they do, it's kind of like it was the first game. Alabama, they labored their way to a little over 100 yards rushing and they did stay committed to it and that kept the passing game open enough. But Jeremy Bernard, Isaiah Hortons come on a lot for them. I got no clue what's happening with Ryan Williams. Lots here. Brooks has really stepped up. Those are game breaker types. That is a game breaker type unit. If Ty Simpson has time to operate. And they're going to have to come through because there aren't many other paths for Alabama now. They have really struggled to consistently hit the deep ball and they've struggled to run the ball, which means you, you really got to thread the needle. You really got to be precise in the underneath. An intermediate passing game, that's the path for Alabama now. It's not a mystery. It has been for a while with Georgia. Zachariah Branch is a very important player in this game. I stood there last week and watched Alabama seem to be in control of a game defensively. And then there are two huge like yards after catch, explosive plays. And you sit there and think to yourself as you're watching the replay, once you know Alabama wins the game, you're thinking, who on Georgia's team can do that? Oh, Zachariah Branch. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Probably more so than anybody Auburn has. So it doesn't, it doesn't matter if you've got control of the game. If you just casually let a couple of plays spring for 55, 60 yards after the catch, that guy can do that. Alabama secondary throttled Georgia down a Little bit. A lot actually in passing numbers the first go around here. But Georgia still had 227 on the ground and I expect Georgia to have a fair amount of success running the ball again in this game. I don't know if you just outright win the game running the ball. Now full credit to that staff at Georgia. Like they've done a really good job resurrecting that ground game and it's been good enough, plenty good enough this year if that's still there. If the ground game is still there. Don't have to run it for over 200, but just run it effectively enough. That's a big deal. This is where that Georgia center spot matters. Drew Bobo's status has been very much up in the air. I would just lean towards he's not playing and if they get him late in the week, that's a pleasant surprise. But you think about the individual matchups here. You think about what it takes for Georgia to operate efficiently offensively and the difference in a redshirt freshman starting against. You know, the likes of Tim Keenan at Alabama are. And it could be anything from functionality in the snapping game to run fits to disruption on that front to disruption in timing of passes and rhythm and whatnot. All of that stuff can be a big factor here. But. But the injury situation is a huge deal both ways. I could just as easily say, you know, Bama was so lethal on third down. Who was their number one safety valve really this side of Jeremy Bernard down the stretch it was Josh Cuevas. They don't expect to get him back for this game. That's why it looks so labor intensive against Auburn they didn't have one of their most dependable third down weapons. Not to mention the little dip you take in pass Pro with 80 not being on the field. So the injury situation is really tough for both teams and that's for the guys that will miss the game. They're going to be guys on the field that probably have little business being on the field. You just. You got a mentality of a warrior. It's a conference championship game by this point. The other thing to remember the first go around in this one was big staff win for Alabama. I've mentioned this with Texas and Georgia when they played a few weeks ago when we get there are about like five or six programs in college football that when they play I almost don't concern myself so much with matchups. It's a staffing thing for me. Texas, Georgia just the same as Alabama. Georgia in that they all get to choose how they do it. College football does not dictate that Alabama or Georgia have to play and recruit any one way. They get to have whatever style they want offensively and defensively. They get to define whatever identity they want their program to have. They pretty much get to recruit any kind of athlete they want. They've got really good nil resources, so they get to build themselves however they want to. Nothing's off limits. So it's all about culture versus culture. It's all about approach versus Approach. And Georgia has just stomped Texas's approach and they've outstaffed Texas a couple of times. I it wasn't that emphatic, But I thought DeBoer and his staff kind of did that to Kirby the first go around. You don't say that very often about Kirby Smart in Georgia. Rarely do you ever say it. So my question is, do we end up saying it twice like DeBoer's still perfect against landing Kirby and Sark in his career. Is that going to continue here? Let's take a look at what the model thinks. FanDuel's got Georgia by two and a half model a little higher on Georgia than FanDuel is. We cross three the Pate State model. The little in house model. It's not a little model. The in house model here has Georgia by 4. I cannot emphasize this enough. I have no feel on the game. I've watched every snap of both of these teams maybe outside of the FCS games and we have arrived in December and I really have no feel on the game. The injury situation especially muddies it up for me. So when I don't have a feel all that much on the game, I'll just go with the model. The model says Georgia wins and covers. I'll say Georgia wins and covers. I also said that the first go around in Athens and whiffed on that one. So who knows. What I do know is really looking forward to it. As a kid who grew up on the Chattahoochee river, which is the river that divides Alabama and Georgia, it always means a little bit extra for me when those two teams play the current odds to win the national championship, Georgia's third, fourth, fifth, sixth, Alabama's eighth and whoever wins this one I think gets a first round by I would also just highly suggest, as you guys are checking out the ABC broadcast of that game, might want to flip over to ESPN a time or two. Who knows what could be happening over there. I'm told an announcement may be coming tomorrow on that front. But you know What? The night before is when it really pops off. Because the night before is when we have our first ever sort of exclusive live show. And we're doing it in Atlanta, Georgia, the night before the SEC championship game. It'll be at the Buckhead Theater In Atlanta, about 20 minutes up the road from Mercedes Benz Stadium. Georgia folks, you already live there. Bama. Folks, you'll be in town for the game. We got a few tickets remaining. We've kind of slowly been like releasing some onto the market so that we don't just hard sell out before we know the matchup of the game. I cannot stress this enough. Those tickets will not last. So if you want them, you need to grab them now. Pagestatematerial.com you'll see the tab for the live show. Gonna be fun. Gonna have some special guests. Rumor on the street is Kublix even gonna drop by? Now, that's merely rumor because I. It's not. I can't legally confirm that, so it's merely rumor at this point. But we're gonna have a lot of fun and we'll do more of those in the future. But you only get one shot to attend the first one, and so that's this one. Looking forward to having you guys there. Live count update. Jesse, what's the live count at? We are. Boy, oh boy, could it actually happen? So we're at 499748. I mean, we're like 250 away. I may have vastly underestimated the audience. Yeah, if you're watching right now, I mean, we got like 12,000 tuned in, so we just need like 250 of you to hit the subscribe button. I don't really know that I can compose myself if we hit 500k live. Anyway, back to the show. Ohio State, Indiana, Big Ten championship game. Whomst amongst us didn't see that coming two years ago. Saturday night, 8 Eastern, 7 Central on Fox. This game happened last year. Different personnel, different venue. But just before we dive into this, let's remember this game did happen last year. Ohio State 38, Indiana 15. Some said it wasn't even as close as the final score indicated. I am. Some the difference is. Well, one of the differences is this Indiana team is a legit number two team in the country. We're going to show the JP poll later, which is just a power rating. They're number two. So, like, I can't believe Indiana has become this good. I just. I cannot believe it. So regardless of the outcome this Saturday, hats off. But I will say if they only manage 68 yards passing. Again, I think the result may look the same. So there's some non negotiables here for Indiana. Obviously the line on the game is Ohio State -4½. Fernando Mendoza is right up there as a favorite or co favorite in the Heismanage right now, depending on where you look. So their challenges, they've got to scale their passing game against the number one pass defense in the country. It's non negotiable. I mean, if they're getting throttled down on that front, Ohio State just gets to kind of mess around and know that 24 points will probably be plenty good enough. So they've got to scale those passing numbers. Now. They have faced two top 10 passing defenses so far this year. One of them was Oregon. Mendoza was 20 of 31 for 215. One touchdown, one interception. The other one was Iowa, 13 of 23. Against Oregon he was 20 of 31. Against Iowa he was 13 of 23. Two hundred and thirty three, two touchdowns, one pick. Candidly, I think he needs better numbers than either one of those games to beat Ohio State. Unless there's a really, really big turnover differential in this game. But that's not the fun part. I kind of skimmed over that because that's not the fun matchup. The fun matchup is how much can Indiana run the ball? How successfully can they run the ball? This is not a dominant ground game, but they're pretty good at running the ball. Ohio State's got the number four run defense in the country. All right, so if I tell you that one side's not dominant anyway. Doing it, but good, just not dominant. And the other side's top five, normally you think to yourself, well, I mean, give me Ohio State all day and it may work out that way. It may work out that way. Indiana's got the number nine rushing attack in the country. So I don't want to paint them as like this poverty program when it comes to running the ball. They're very good at it. But the paper here, I brought the paper along tonight. I'll pop it. Why not immunity? It says Ohio State has a discernible advantage here. Here's the one thing to watch. Because of the nature of Ohio State schedule, they are very good. I don't doubt them on that front, but they have gotten this late in the season without facing sort of like a top 50 rushing attack with a good passing game attached to it. Michigan was that. But Michigan doesn't have a high level passing game attached to their ground game. Indiana does so really that's what we call a toolbox offense around here. An offense like Texas A and M. Kind of like on any given weekend, they could throw it for 400 on you, they could run it for 300 on you. Neither of those things is going to happen to Ohio State, mind you. But they could do multiple things. At the very least, it finally makes you respect the foolish spectrum of offense. And Ohio State did not have to do that against Wisconsin and Penn State and Purdue and ucla. So it may be a moot point cause Ohio State may just be that good. This is one of the final things we kind of have to find out, Joel Klatt said on the broadcast last week. And I thought it was very well put. He said. It seems like all the other contenders just keep giving us more questions. Ohio State just keeps giving us more answers. This could be another one of the answers. There aren't many questions left with Ohio State, so Penn State, especially with outside runs, they had some very good early success against Ohio State that didn't last very long. But again, it's the number one team in the country. So you're kind of trying to nitpick. You're having to pull out the mic, the magnifying glass a little bit to find edges. But it sounds like I'm talking about Indiana as a three touchdown dog. I'm not. They're a four and a half point dog. If they were to win the game, that's probably one thing they figured out. The other thing is maybe they have figured out a way to have an answer for Ohio State's explosives. Because if you don't then rest of this stuff, you might as well just fast forward through. You can. Like here's what's so frustrating about playing Ohio State. You can control the tempo in the game. You could tilt the field with special teams, have great starting field position versus terrible for them. You could run the ball pretty successfully. You could have good success on third down. All that could be happening. And yet because Ohio State is still top 10 in Cat Buster passes, it just doesn't matter because they got so many guys that could break the game on you. Jeremiah Smith, not the least among them. But then all of a sudden you got Carnell Tate doing it. I mean they got tight ends that are better than a lot of receivers out there and if they're doing those things, it doesn't really matter. You worked so hard to create this game script and they just pop one for 70 on you and you're like, man, we work so hard and look how easy they just made it. Can't let that happen. It is a test of Will's game. Not guys named Will, mind you, but that Indiana at Oregon game kind of did something to us. Like you thought about Indiana one way before that day and you were forced to think about them a different way after that. I know I did. So I no longer worry about them just getting clowned. Like they kind of got clowned in this game a little bit last year. I. I'm not saying Ohio State couldn't run away with the game. Ohio State, they have paths where they could blow anyone out. I'd kind of be surprised if Indiana didn't put up a really good fight here at the very least. Also, what sticks in my mind is Ohio State's handling of Michigan, which is six days ago, seven days ago, at the point of this game kicking off where they've had a four year drought and they win the game. And they were very celebratory, but also they were alarmingly businesslike because it was just another box they were going to check. I'm not denigrating the nature of that rivalry. It's the best rivalry in college football. I've been to it several times. It's a humongous accomplishment to win that game. But it was not a Super bowl vibe. And so both of their wills on display at Lucas Oil Stadium the same time. That's the beauty of conference championship games. That's the beauty of late season college football because you got multiple programs, multiple teams out there that look like they can't be defeated. And in this case, it's number one versus number two. Someone's got it. Someone's got to tote the L. Let's take a look at what the model thinks. FanDuel's got Ohio State -4 and a half right now. Model agrees. Model's got Ohio State -4½. I just got to tell you, I've watched Ohio State play all year. I've watched him be dominant all year. And yet there has still been this voice in the back of my mind that says we have only seen their A minus game. There is still a little bit more in the tank. They geared up last year at the perfect time. I, until further notice, have to assume they're going to do that again. So I'll doubt Indiana. That's fine. If they need it in the hype video, that's fine. But until further notice, Ohio State is the best team in the country and I'm taking them to win and I will take them to cover if they lose. Hey, I don't know how that would change fundamentally people's perspective. Outside of a scenario where Ohio State really just gets handled, which would be a shock to the census, that would be a bucket of cold water to the face. If Indiana did to them what they did to Oregon, that would mess with my mind. I don't see that happening. But outside of that happening, the outcome of this game, they're still going to be probably number one and number two in whichever order the game dictates come Selection Sunday. And the loser gets to taste their blood and gets to try to do what Ohio State did last year. It could be Ohio State doing what Ohio State did last year. It could be Indiana trying to package up the Ohio State model from last year. So, yeah, sorry, a lot of. Lot of texts coming in tonight. A lot of people really, really upset with the playoff rankings. And some other stuff's going on, too. It's a big week around here. Jesse, Live subscription counter right quick. Hey, we're 40, we're 35 away. Now, Jesse, who is technically the producer of the show, has tried to make a call in my ear and he thinks that we should just maintain the counter here. But I don't know how quickly we can get 30 subs. Jesse, is it really moving that quick? You do think it's moving that quick? Okay, so Jesse thinks that I should just filibuster here live at 7:43pm Central Time on Tuesday, December 2nd. My mother's birthday. By the way, happy birthday to one Tricia Pate, watching in West Central Georgia. So if you don't subscribe for us, you should subscribe for her. I'm sure that's what she would want. I'm talking like she is no longer with us. She's still very much with us, but I'm sure that's what she would want. Anyway, if you're watching live, that is our live subscriber count. And we were at 499-971. Right now, I don't know, Jesse, it's moving a little too slow for my taste. All right, there goes five, just like that. I think what we can do is I could just get my papers in order here. There go 14 more. Okay. So I can tell you, for instance, they're watching in San Juan, Puerto Rico. They're watching in Gary, Indiana. They're watching in Joplin, Missouri. One more. Look at that. Look at that. Whomst amongst us would have thought that 500,000 subscribers would happen while we were live on air? We would. We Would. So I got to take this opportunity to say thank you to you guys. There are a lot of really special things happening with our show right now. A lot of things that, candidly, I don't want to get into people hating on stuff or people doubting stuff. But there were people within the last decade that thought it was one of the most foolish things in the world to leave certainty, to tread into uncertain waters. And that being trying to make a living in digital media, in alternative media, especially if you're just going to go talk about college football. Now, the reason that I was so steadfast that this would work was because I am one of you guys. I am of the college football diehard audience, and I knew I wasn't being served. Like, I looked around on radio, on tv. I didn't really have what I wanted, and I knew I wasn't alone. All my buddies felt the same way. So let's go do it. Instead of complaining about it, let's go offer it. The market offers us the ability to do that now. Overhead and distribution are not barriers anymore. And so now, if you think you got what it takes, go try your hand at podcasting, go try your hand on YouTube. And we did. And, man, the show has exploded to the point where we get to call our shots. We get to own our ip, we get to own the show. And I say we intentionally, because it's not me. It's. It's the staff. It's you guys, though your show. We don't exist without you. So I know some people say that sometimes. Cause the teleprompter tells them to say it. We don't own a teleprompter. So I appreciate you guys, man. We got a lot of special stuff happening right now. We've had some. Some pretty big meetings lately that are directly tied to the success of this show. That's just numerical evidence of it. But it. The evidence is all around. So you let us do what we love to do for a living. I really appreciate it. And in turn, we get to deliver to you exactly what you want, which is sort of a college football show that's free of, like, any kind of corporate interference. No one ever walks in and dictates what we have to say. There is no league that we have to have allegiance to or network that we have to have allegiance to. I mean, we got great partnerships, but it's our show, and you guys have made sure that it can remain that way. And to anyone out there that is toying with the idea of doing this and may be intimidated because the market's too saturated. Market's not too saturated. If you love what you do and you can dedicate yourself to it and you have a minimum baseline of God given ability. Talent is very overrated, actually in this case. If you just got the minimum, just go do it. You can actually change your life in the process. I know, because you've helped me change mine and change the staffs and look, I know that's a really, really lofty number. I will tell you, we have only just begun on that front. Can really fundamentally alter the way that the way college football is discussed and covered. Because that's in the process of happening now. Okay, let's get back to it. Did not plan on that happening live on air. Follow up to that. We got to figure out how to properly celebrate that. So I am now open to suggestions. However we're gonna do it. What do we do? I can't shave my head. I can't go Will Compton. I'm already there. So what do we do? The floor is open. No rush. No rush. Floor is open. As we are well on our way to a million subs at this point.
Matt Rogers
This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
Bowen Yang
This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
Matt Rogers
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Josh Pate
Farmers in the business of farming, protect conservation funding and staff that supports farmers paid for by investing our land. Mark Stoops has been fired at Kentucky. Will Stein has been hired at Kentucky. Life comes at you really, really fast, as it turns out. So two years ago, you may remember, Mark Stoops was the head coach of Kentucky. Jimbo Fisher's fired at Texas A and M. There were a lot of rumors and speculation that Texas A and M was targeting Mark Stoops, because they were. And there was sort of an agreement in principle. And then Mark Stoops started to pack his bags. And in the meantime, the forums and the message boards and talk radio just blew up. And Texas A and M fans basically revolted and basically said, no, no. And the A and M administration was like, what do you mean, no? You're not going to hire him. And if you do, you will pay the price. Don't even make us back up our words on that, because we will deliver. So it fell through. And then there were various takes out there to varying Degrees of egregiousness. Our good, close, personal acquaintance. Not friend, but acquaintance. Brandon Walker, for example, took to the Internet two years ago, one of many great takes he's had. He said, if Texas A and M fans really strong armed their school into not hiring Mark Stoops, we have a new dumbest fan base in America. More concerned with winning the press conference than winning games. Mark Stoops, since that tweet, 9 and 15 out of a job. Texas A and M, since that tweet, they're in the playoff, aren't they, Jesse? So it turns out you can win the press conference and win games. Yeah. So Will Stein. Who is Will Stein, Some of you may be asking. Well, he is the Oregon offensive coordinator. Really sharp guy. I love the idea of Kentucky going after Will Stein now. Now until eternity, when a new coach is hired. I am ripping Tom Fornelli's quote. It's a great hire. I have no idea if it will work out. I do love the concept of it, though, and the concept is, stop trying to find a sure thing. Stop trying to find a guy that's already an established winner as a head coach, because they aren't really out there. And if they are out there, respectfully, it's Kentucky. You're probably not landing them. You got to go land the next guy. Well, Josh, what if they hit a home run and Will Stein wins a lot? Well, worry about retaining him later, but go get a guy who can win first. Now, I got to tell you, I've sat in Will Stein's offensive meetings within the last month even. In fact, so has Savannah State. We were out there for the USC game, and, I mean, Dan's really great about access there, as long as you keep your mouth shut. And so I took a blood oath that I wouldn't report anything back directly. But I also went and sat in on Will Stein's offensive meetings, and Savannah State leans over to me. Yes, yes. My wife is in the offensive meetings with me as well. She leans over and asks, who is that? I said, that's Will Stein. She goes, he sounds like a head coach. Well, less than a month later, he is an SEC head coach. Runs a good meeting, obviously runs a good offense. How prepared does the room feel is always what I compare. I go a lot of these places. I get to sit in that kind of setting a lot. Like, how prepared does the room feel? How much are they echoing back to you, what you're saying to them? It doesn't matter what you know, if you can't put it in their heads. And if. If what's in their heads doesn't come out on the field, you can be the smartest football savant known to man. It doesn't matter. Will Stein's really good at knowing the game, calling the game, coaching the game, but then his players executing the game at a high level. And the other thing that stands out about Will Stein's offense and being in his meeting rooms is how readily those quarterbacks could finish his sentences for him. They just know the system, so he knows it. And what he knows is in them. So it's not a guarantee of anything. I'm just giving you an observation. Dude is really sharp offensively and his team plays accordingly. It'll come down to the same things for him at Kentucky. It comes down to for anyone else. Do you have the necessary support? We'll see. Can you recruit the South? Are you given the resources to recruit the South, Especially at Kentucky, where you're probably not going to swing, you know, shot for shot with the Georgia's or Alabamas or Texas's. Can you place a premium, premium on evaluation and on development. Sort of what Elko did at Duke. Not to, you know, apples to apples, compare the programs, but that'll matter a lot here. But at least they took a swing. I respect Kentucky for taking a swing. I know a lot of people looked at him and said, dude, you're about to pay mark stoops $37 million not to coach. And by the way, that $37 million is due within, what, Jesse, 60 days. Yet they don't get to spread it out over several years. Kentucky people say it just means more. It just costs more. I know that. So best of luck to Will Stein. We may even venture up there for the Speaker Series this spring. So, I'm sorry, it's a crazy time right now, and we're about to talk about something on the show, and I just want to make sure nothing's happened on this front. Jesse, I mean, you know what we're about to talk about. Has anything happened that I should know about on a certain coaching search? I don't think so. Oh, I always get nervous. He's so depressed. It's not funny. It's not funny. What'd you say, Jesse? You say something about merch? Yeah. Okay, before we depress everyone with the latest on the Penn State coaching search. Hey, it's Christmas season. Look at those beautiful sweaters over at the paint state store. Paintstatematerial.com Especially if you need to shop. And judging by your Christmas list, I know you do. You may be a wayward mother that has accidentally stumbled onto the channel because your son subscribed you to it unbeknownst to you. Don't unsubscribe. And number two, get him a Christmas sweater. Look it. Tis the season to be chuggy. Where could you go wrong with that? Those things have been flying off the virtual shelves at the pace state store. Pacestatematerial.com Appreciate you guys. Okay. All right. It's. It's about to get really somber for a second. The Penn State coaching search is a disaster. I'll say it now. My Penn State brethren are saying it, even if they have never agreed with me on who they should hire, nor have they agreed with me on whether they should have fired James Franklin. And no and Matt Campbell are the two fill ins to the blanks there. The latest in this saga is that Kehlani Sitaki is going to remain at Brigham Young. Since we last spoke, Penn State made a serious run at him and I thought we'd hear his name sooner, but we didn't. And now it doesn't matter because he's going to remain at Brigham Young and they're going on to play in their conference championship game Saturday. There were a lot of questions about how good a fit he would be. Fit is a very overrated term in coaching searches, but I digress. Well, moot point. So that makes like 27 names that Penn State has struck out on. Really an inexcusable spot for Penn State to be on. Let's rewind it for a second. Let's just remember where we are. I know a lot of Penn State fans are watching and like, we don't want to listen to this rehashed. Well, it's going to take 30 seconds, but for those of you who are just kind of observing this from a distance and you're in the weeds on it and you're so zoned in. Zoom out. They fired James Franklin before almost anyone else fired their head coach this year. The reason was so they could get a jump start on a coaching search. Why? Because the calendar is different now. Signing day is tomorrow. It's the first Wednesday in December, and the Portal season opens in early January. And so we've got to have a coach in place. That's the entire reason you fire a guy that otherwise was winning nine plus games per year. It's not good enough for us anymore. All right, that's great. Except that you had no idea who you could go get. Well, Josh, you can't know who's available to you until you fire your coach and you go out on the market. No, no, no, no, no. We can't know who's available to Penn State until they fire James Franklin and go hire a replacement. You better be about 98% sure if you're the athletic director or else you have screwed your program and it's totally inexcusable. And at that point, if you fire James Franklin, again, not terrible by any stretch. The guy was in the semifinals like eight months prior. But he's not good enough for you. You fire him and you know, you can go get Marcus Freeman or Mike elko or Kalyn DeBoer. Fine. Tough love, tough business. Go do it. But if you're firing him out this window, you're saying goodbye. And out that window you see nothing but fog. You might want to have him stick around until the fog clears up a little bit. But Pat Kraft didn't do that. And if you don't have certainty that you can upgrade from your current situation, but you hit flush on your current situation anyway, you're probably not equipped to be the athletic director of a major program just calling it like it is. I got nothing against Pat Kraft. I'm just. What else is in your job description at that point? The football program at Penn State by 10 miles matters more than anything else he does. And it's in a state of disrepair right now. Do you understand? Signing day is tomorrow and They've got the 128th ranked class in the country. They're in a situation right now where whoever they sign is, I kid you not, going to have to try and do what Barry Odom did at Purdue or what Rich Rod did at West Virginia. Just portal in 60 guys so they can have a competitive team next year. That's not even to mention the mid to long term rebuild of the roster. And meanwhile, I look down the road. Virginia Tech could not have gotten a better Christmas present than Pat Kraft delivered to them. I'm not saying that Pat Kraft is a sleeper agent for Virginia Tech. What I am saying is if Virginia Tech had planted Pat Kraft in State College Pennsylvania to do their bidding, he wouldn't have done much different than he's done. He fired a top 15 caliber head coach early enough in the season where Virginia Tech could go get him, have him in place, have a top 30 recruiting class probably better than that after they wrap it up tomorrow and you went and got a playoff caliber head coach, you massively upgraded, you got delivered to you a top 15 head coach at a program that's not a top 30 program. And it's because the other guys voluntarily dumped him with no certain answer. I cannot believe Penn State finds themselves here. Like we debated internally tonight, should we have fun with this? Like, should we do the Sarah McLachlan special? Music and we were going to do it. And I said no, because I like Penn State a lot as a program. So I actually don't want to make light of it because it's really not a joke. It is, but it isn't. It's actually really serious because there's no reason why Penn State football should be in this position. You could, you could come to me and say, well, this, this job is not the caliber of Ohio State or Michigan or Oregon. Okay, I'm fine with that. I can promise you it's better than it's being treated. I can promise you it's better than it is perceived in the marketplace right now. And the other thing that aggravates me about this is you've got a guy. I'm going to. I'm going to hammer this again. I really couldn't care less who it pisses off. Matt Campbell is just sitting in Ames, Iowa, and I mentioned his name a month ago and a lot of you turned your nose up at him. Okay, well, how do you feel now because you chased unicorns for a while that you had little to no shot at getting even if you had a competent athletic director. And then you chased the backup options to the unicorns and they also told you no. And meanwhile, the guy who, in the 134 year history of Iowa State football is in the midst of the best three year run in program history that's just sitting there has not gotten a look. And I had a couple of you say, well, hey, Amanda, Matt Campbell's so great, then why hadn't he gotten offers before? He has. Tennessee was there, Florida State was there. The Detroit Lions were there. You don't know it because he doesn't push to publicize it. Dude's had a ton of big time offers in his lap in the past. Not this cycle in the past, Dan, again, it boggles my mind. Sometimes athletic directors have their affairs in order and I look at a situation and I don't understand it. But just because I don't understand it doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. This one is one I don't understand because the guy at the center of it doesn't understand. So I don't know if, I don't know if Pat Kraft's going to have his job much longer. Like I legitimately look at it. It's that disastrous. I know. If you're not following this coaching search day to day, you are listening to me right now saying, that's way too harsh, dude. You're trying to rage bait with this. What were all the other terms? Engagement, farm, clickbait. You're just trying to hot take your way through this. No, I'm not. I promise you I'm not. If you get closer to the situation, you really start to feel the gravity of the situation. It really is that bad. So I don't know where it's going to go. I don't know where it's going to go. Like I don't know if Bob Chesney has signed his deal at ucla. I don't. Jeff Braum, like these are just some of the names being thrown around. Brian Dable is out there. I don't know. I don't know. I do know this Academy Sports and Outdoors has your has your outdoor gear. Academy Sports and Outdoors, they're ready for the winter sporting season, the spring sporting season. I don't care if you want to buy stuff for the summer of next year. Really competitive pricing right now. Academy has been a long term partner of the show. Eternally grateful to them. They believed before many others believed. And so academy.com is always there. If you can't get there in person. A lot of you are doing shopping right now and once you get done at the pate state store, patestatematerial.com, head over to Academy. Whether it be in person or academy.com grills canopies, late tailgating purchases perhaps. Yes, it could all be done there. We still got more games to predict. Jesse. Wow. Ooh, big one here. Big 12 championship game, Saturday noon kickoff on ABC. Texas Tech. Brigham Young rumors that Joe Tess is on the call here, so expect many things. Probably not a blowout, though. Kalani Sitaki has re upped with Brigham Young, so he's staying. Joey Maguire, a new contract. He's staying. And before we even dive into the matchup, you know you got two brilliant head coaches here. Sataki's doing things rarely seen in Provo, Utah. Of course, Joey McGuire and company are putting together a historic season in Lubbock, Texas. And yet despite all that, good close friend of the program and noted college football savant Joey Maguire chose to share some of his wisdom with the college football public earlier this week. Don't take my word for it. Roll it, Bradley. Yeah, I think, I think it's really important people that Understand football as a whole, you no matter what. You know, I think Josh Pate does a great job. I think he's a guy. I wouldn't be mad if he was the commissioner of college football. I know he would take the job and do a great job. And what started as a joke is becoming very serious, isn't it? Hey, who flips what in this game? We were at this game in Lubbock when it happened. It was a great environment, but it wasn't a very competitive game. 29 to 7 was the final. So, I mean, you know, the most boilerplate logic imaginable here is, well, if it plays like that again, I may be tuning out by halftime. Okay, so if it doesn't, what has to flip? Well, a couple of things have to flip for Brigham Young. They need to find a much more competent ground game than they had the first time around. Cause 27 carries for 60 yards for Brigham Young is not going to get the job done. They also need to reestablish their dominance and turnover margin. They were minus three in this game, and yet they're number seven nationally in turnover margin on the year. The problem is Texas Tech is fourth. So neither of them are very prone to giving the ball away. It's just that when they played the first time, one of them certainly had the edge. It was the home team for Texas Tech. See, here's the funny thing about the first game. Big margin of victory. It actually could have been much worse. Texas Tech kicked half a million field goals. They had five field goals from inside the Brigham Young 30. I think three of them were in the red zone. We counted, so they couldn't finish drives, and they're 89th in red zone touchdown percentage. So, like, that's been a little bit of an issue with them. But the point is, with those issues, they still won going away. Flip even one, if not two of those field goals into touchdowns, and it is a huge, like, blowout victory for Texas Tech. So Brigham Young has played their best ball as of late. I fully believe that. I fully believe they are the best version of themselves right now. I do believe they're a better team than they were when these two played the first time around. Texas Tech probably is, too. So the final, you know, the final feel kind of comes down to how have they been lately? Like, they've won their past three by double digits. They need to flip turnover. Okay. Like, I'm trying to visualize while I'm looking off and up to the left. Like, I try and visualize how it would happen how the upset would happen. I think the way the game would have to feel stylistically is turnover margin has to be flipped and that needs to happen early so that Texas Tech doesn't grab an early lead. Because Texas Tech grabs these games early and they're over. They're one of the best first half offenses in the country. They're number three in first half points per game. They're number two in first half pass yards per game. Number one in the country in first half explosive passes of 25 plus yards. So you can't let that happen. Greatly helps if you do what Michigan did against Ohio State last week. Get yourself an early turnover but capitalize on it. And then they just kind of need to ride the revenge wave. They basically just need to show a version of themselves that proves the the gap is not quite as big as it looked the first time around. There. There is a fairly sizable talent edge here from Texas Tech, but you can overcome that. Like there are ways. Brigham Young's done this a long time, so there are ways you can overcome that. What I'm trying to overcome is instinct versus eyeballs. My instinct generically in a matchup like this is okay, if we had a matchup early in the season, one team did get blown out, but it's cause they were minus three turnovers and they're going to get another shot. Oh, by the way, their head coach just re upped contractually after he flirted with leaving for a hot minute and they get another shot. Like I'm riding with that team. At the very least I'm taking the points. But I remember watching the game and I remember telling myself leaving Lubbock that day if these teams play again, just remember, as dominant as this was, it could have been worse. And the next time they will play would be in Arlington, Texas. And that turf is not going to slow Texas Tech down any. I can't get over that. I really can't get over that. The model can though. So let me show you something right quick. At FanDuel, Texas Tech is minus 12 and a half. The Pate State model has Texas Tech -8. Brigham Young is a huge lean like, like best bet type of stuff. And because I'm not betting the game, I am feeling willing to outright challenge the model on this. The model historically has been really low on Brigham Young. Well now it's way high on Brigham Young. I actually believe that the gap is bigger than the model does. I'm going to take Texas Tech to win and cover. And if they do, look, I think we're looking at them possibly locking down a first round buy, I do believe, and there's been some argument and some debate out there about that. I do think you got Ohio State and Indiana 12 in any order. I think the SEC champ is going to be in there and then I think Texas Tech, if they win, will be the fourth team. And by the way, if they do win, also think about what that does downstream in the playoff rankings that probably maybe bumps Brigham Young out from between Miami and Notre Dame, which then potentially triggers our ACC doomsday scenario of Duke winning, the ACC not being ranked high enough to get in the playoffs and the committee sitting there on Selection Sunday saying, are we going to put Miami in or are we going to say no to the entire acc? Butterfly effect, man, it's out there. You may, you may think there aren't many things that could change this Saturday. Yeah, there are. I have an itch on the edge of my nose. I don't know what it is. It's not what the haters will say. It is drug free. The only way to be over here, kids. I am a graduate of the DARE program at New Mountain Hill elementary, so I've never done a drug in my life. I wouldn't even know where to get them. I'm sure the live chat would, but I wouldn't even know where to get them. So it's just a good old fashioned itchy nose. Although there is a suspicious amount of energy on the show tonight, but it's not because of that. Okay, JP poll week 15. It has dropped 15 weeks. I have told you, these are not rankings. These are power ratings. But I especially need to tell you because the playoff rankings are out right now, the order you're about to see these teams in, in no shape, form or fashion is reflective of how I think the rankings should look. I can't stress that enough. There are two very, very glaring examples here of why I can't stress that enough. All this is I'm about to show you is the model data spat out in the order of who it would favor against who on a neutral field. Have we been clear? I think we've been clear all year. Let's take a look. Missouri is there at number 20. Eli Drinkwitz will be relieved to know that he finished the season in the top 20 of the JP poll. And frankly, I don't know what more he could ask for. A few more wins. But outside of that, let's not be selfish. Okay? Got your contract extended. You're making half a billion dollars a year and you're a top 20 JP poll team. Merry Christmas. Penn State is at 19. I want to pause here for a second. Obviously, Penn State's not ranked in the top 20, nor should they be, but power ratings wise, and I have confirmed this with FanDuel. This is worth a paper, Pop. No matter who wins the ACC championship game Saturday, whether it's Duke or Whether it's Virginia, FanDuel would favor Penn State by more than a field goal over either one of those. Do with that, whatever you will. Iowa, number 18. Tennessee State at 17. Brigham Young's at 16. I'm telling you, man, you. You look at that and you think, oh, Brigham Young, man, they're only 16th. It's a huge deal for them to be this high because their talent roster doesn't compare with some of these other teams. Just like Indiana. I'll show you. I'll just go ahead and spoiler alert it for you. They're all the way at number two. It's a huge deal. These non blue blood, Non Perennial Top 5 Top 10 recruiting teams are this high. It's also a little reflection of where the sport is right now, a little bit of the flattening of the sport. Let's go. Top 15. USC at number 15, Lincoln Riley. There you go. Stood up on the podium there, held the, held the sword in his hand, led the band. Number 15 in the JP poll. Vandy at number 14. Really kind of similar to where they are in the college Football playoff rankings. Utah 13, OU 12, Miami's 11. All right, look at who's number 10. Texas is number 10. This is where I need to stop for a second and I need to remind everyone at least one more time, this in no way is reflective of what I think the rankings should look like because I don't think Texas should be number 10 in the rankings. But from a power ratings standpoint, they absolutely would be favored against Brigham Young or who else, Jesse? Certainly against either of the ACC teams, they'd be favored by half a mile against the G5 team. So, yes, Texas still respected by the odds makers. No, that shouldn't matter when it comes to fielding the playoff. Texas Tech is number nine, Alabama's number eight, Ole Miss seven, Notre Dame six. So the model, it's been high on Notre Dame all year. We have never had Notre Dame, I think, outside of like the top eight or so, maybe nine. And that's even when they were 02. So, I mean, model's been rock steady on Notre Dame all year. Top five, Oregon at five A&M at four. I'm gonna pull something up on the laptop here right quick. Georgia's three, Indiana's two. They did flip Indiana and Georgia and Ohio State's one. Just to give you an idea of the gap between these teams right now, it will not shock you to learn that Ohio State is they have re established the gap between themselves and Indiana there is right about a 4.4 and a half point gap, which is reflected perfectly in the FanDuel odds this week. But with Georgia at about another point there and then you go down to Texas A and M, add about another two points and then the gap between Oregon right now and Ohio state would be 8 1/2 points according to the model. So again, make of that what you will the gap between Ohio state at number one and let's just say Missouri fairly sizable, like 16 points, 15 points, something like that. And as soon as I put that number out, I think I'd get a lot of action on Ohio State minus. You could do that in Missouri right now, you know. Missouri. Breaking news. FanDuel is live in Missouri. Now I offered you guys special offer all the back half of last month. I told you go sign up advanced in Missouri and come December 1st you can bet $5 and get 400 in bonus bets. Well, that came and went. That's the bad news. The good news is if you live there in Missouri and you're just now ready to sign up, that's okay, I can still get you a bunch of free money. I just can't get you 400. What I can do if you bet $5 is get you $300 in bonus bets. Now the other good bit of news is it doesn't even matter if your $5 bet wins or loses, you still get the 300 in bonus bets. Best I can do. Best I can do. The exclusive odds provider of Pent State. They will be on hand there for our live show down in Atlanta Thursday night.
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Josh Pate
All right, I wanted to hit one last thing. A couple of you. And by a couple, I mean, like, 50 of you asked about this. Hold on a second. Lip balm. So Blaine from Hattiesburg, Mississippi, hit us up. He said, do you agree with Cole's take? I assume, Kublick, that Kiffin quit on Ole Miss, you may be wondering, what take is he talking about? So I'm gonna play it for you. I think. This is from McElroy and Kubelik, which is a radio show I listen to every morning, by the way. It's local in Birmingham, but really it's a national college football show. So this was a couple of days ago, Kubelik just woke up in an ornery mood and decided to go off on poor, innocent, defenseless Lane Kiffin. Let's take a listen. You don't leave your team before you're going to the playoffs. Like, it's. You can't do it, man. Like, you tell lsu, I'm sorry, and I hate it. I wanted to be your head coach. You tell Florida, I would love to coach the Gators, man. Like, it feel. It would be so cool to run out there in the swamp and lead that team out there and, like, do what Spurrier did and do what Urban did and, like, be the next guy there. But you know what? I can't do it right now. I can't. Call me. They want you. They'd wait. That, too. Like, it's like. Like you're trying to force your. You're trying to force your leverage on Ole Miss. Why don't you force your leverage on lsu? Yep, yep, yep. I don't disagree with anything that they said there. I haven't disagreed with most any opinion that's been offered on this. It's really one of those classic college football conundrums, if you will, because I think everyone's kind of right. You could come at me and say, Lane Kiffin, 100%, should have taken that job any way he wants to if he wanted it. And I'm like, yeah, that is his right. And then Kubelet could come in, backed by McElroy, and say, you know what? He quit on his team. Yep, he sure did. And then someone else could say, well, they wouldn't let him coach his team in the playoff. That's correct. And then someone else could say, well, you know there was one surefire way that he could have coached the team in the playoff. Stay at Ole Miss. Yup. All this stuff I agree with. And then someone else could come in and say, yeah, the calendar's a mess. It's a shame that anyone has to deal with this. Yup, that's also accurate. And then someone else could come in and say, stop making the calendar the scapegoat. These are adults making tens of millions of dollars. They ought to be man enough to stand by their word. And I'm like, yup, that's valid. I don't disagree with any of this. I don't really know how to feel because normally there's a very, very clear side. It's not normally this gray. Normally it's pretty white and black. I will say this, though. All right, so they said something at the end there that I don't think was feasible. Like he said, you shouldn't have quit on your team. Like, you should have just seen it through. Now, what you could have done, paraphrasing here, is he said, you could have just waited and told lsu, I'm going to see my season through, then I'll take your job. And he said, kind of if you wanted it bad enough. McElroy said, you know, if they wanted you bad enough, they'd be willing to wait. Well, yeah, LSU would have been willing to wait even today. LSU would have no problem with him going to coach the playoff. Of course they would have no problem with it. It's the Ole Miss side that had the problem with it. And it was. It was never going to happen that way. It sounds reasonable, but practically it couldn't happen that way. Think through that for a second. The LSU job's vacant. You know, a bunch of people want the job, and yet you mysteriously go well into December and you haven't filled the job like Penn State, Right? Now, imagine if that was lsu. No one would call LSU desperate. They would know they're waiting on someone and they would know who someone it is. They would know it's Lane Kiffin, and Ole Miss is not stupid. So they'd know it, too. And Ole Miss would say, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Tell you what, if it's not, you sign this contract, sign this piece of paper we're putting in front of you. And if Lane Kiffin said no, then you suspend him with pay. But you're not letting him ride it out there while all the while, for all, you know, recruiting half your roster away, you're not doing that. You're not stupid. It's just semantics at that point, okay? Whether whether the LSU job has been offered to him or not, or whether he is seeing the season through, that wasn't going to happen. And the other thing you could have done if you wanted to make that happen, the only thing you could have done actually is retained Brian Kelly. That's the only thing you could have done. You could have retained Brian Kelly. Run a very, very airtight, super secret back channel coaching search where you let it be known to Lane Kiffin and his reps, our job's gonna come open. It's gonna come open after your season ends, whenever that is. And if that needs to be in January, we'll hold on to Brian Kelly through January. Therefore, we'll be able to lock down a recruiting class. If we need to go all the way through the portal window, we'll go through the portal window. And then when your season ends, we'll fire him and we'll hire you. That's the way it could have happened, but it didn't happen that way. So the moment Brian Kelly was fired, there was no world, no matter how you spread the icing over the cake, where Lane Kiffin was going to be able to finish his season at Ole Miss, including the playoffs, and still take the LSU job. If the current situation is as is, it just becomes obvious what's happening. So, like, yes, of course, in a perfect world, you could have seen it through. And in a realistic world, LSU would have loved that. Ole Miss was never going to allow that. So if you think he quit on his team, it's because he did, he did quit on his team. And if you think that's unethical or that's hypocritical, it's. Cause it is at least hypocritical, if not unethical. And if you think that a disproportionate amount of criticism has been slung towards Lane Kiffin when people like John Summerall are also in this position, that's true. It's because Kiffin's a much bigger name and he handled it way differently than John did. And if you're of the opinion that, well, hey, he's an adult, he can make any decision he wants, you're absolutely right. And if you think the LSU is a better job and you should take it whenever it's offered, that's fine for you to feel that. My point is, you can feel any way you want to about it. It doesn't matter how you feel about it. Nor does it matter how I feel. About it. It matters how Lane Kiffin felt and we know the answer to that. But I guess it's all going to come down to your personal preference, sort of your personal college football worldview. That's what it's going to come down to. And we know Cole Kublix. And on a slightly related note, we will have him on the show Thursday. Maybe we'll zoom Lane in as well. Just a nice little three box. I'm told he's pretty busy right now. We appreciate you guys man. We're almost to 5001000 subs now. We appreciate you so much. I mean did not wake up this morning thinking that we were going to hit 500k on air tonight. I thought it would be tomorrow before we did. But the audience always delivers. Our people always deliver. They have never not delivered. So it's a big week for us. I can't give you all the details right now. There's just a lot going on. I mean above and beyond this number. Next to my head, there's a lot going on. Sometime in spring I'll probably be able to just tell the full story of all the wheels in motion behind the scenes. And I know you hear this from me about every six months. That's cause great stuff keeps happening to us about every six months or so. So look, before you start to worry, nothing's happening with the show. Show's not going anywhere. Show's not changing. Nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing. It's just we got incredible opportunities coming our way. One of those is our live show this Friday night. Tickets on sale patestatematerial.com I'm telling you, another really, really, really big one is coming Saturday and when I get the go ahead to announce it, I will. But it has to do with the SEC championship game and we're really looking forward to it. And then there are several other things in motion as well. So happy but also focused for director Bradley, for producer Jesse. We will be back Thursday probably about an hour earlier. In other words, at the same time we've been doing the Thursday show. Until then. Take care and God bless.
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Josh Pate
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Josh Pate
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Episode: CFP Rankings Reaction + Conference Title Predictions & Penn State Coaching Search
Date: December 3, 2025
Host: Josh Pate (iHeartPodcasts)
Josh Pate delivers a rapid-fire, candid breakdown of just-released College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings, predicts outcomes for upcoming conference championship games, and dissects the ongoing Penn State head coaching search. The episode is packed with behind-the-scenes intel and logic-driven opinions—eschewing hot takes for grounded analysis. Pate critiques the playoff committee’s reasoning, argues for Miami over Notre Dame, discusses championship matchups (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12), and laments Penn State’s search dysfunction—all in his signature irreverent, passionate tone.
Timestamps: 02:00–23:00
Immediate Take: Pate calls the newest Playoff rankings affirming in some ways, deeply confounding in others:
Alabama/Notre Dame/BYU Dynamics:
Notre Dame vs. Miami Debate:
Head-to-Head Emphasis:
Timestamps: 25:56–41:30
Timestamps: 41:34–51:50
Timestamps: 55:26–68:30
Timestamps: 68:30–77:49
Timestamps: 77:49–83:00
Timestamps: 23:00, 50:00, 66:00
Timestamps: 55:26–68:30, 83:47–88:00
On the committee’s explanations:
"Pregnant pauses and outright dead air would be better than me listening to you tell me Alabama elevated because they were at one point up 17 to nothing on Auburn." (07:24)
On frustration with Notre Dame-Miami debate:
"Miami ought to have been ahead of Notre Dame already. And if it comes time on Selection Sunday...I still think they may put Miami in over Notre Dame." (15:32)
On Texas's Playoff hopes:
"Texas hasn't earned their way into the playoff... If you're Texas and you're trying to make the playoff, you got to meet a higher bar than that, and you didn't." (19:33)
On head-to-head results:
"You want to throw me data points? I got four and a half hours of game tape of Miami beating Notre Dame." (13:13)
On Penn State’s process:
“If you don't have certainty that you can upgrade from your current situation, but you hit flush on your current situation anyway, you're probably not equipped to be the athletic director of a major program.” (61:18)
On 500k subscribers:
"We get to deliver to you exactly what you want, which is sort of a college football show that's free of, like, any kind of corporate interference. No one ever walks in and dictates what we have to say." (51:55)
Pate delivers his analysis with passion, candor, and the dry wit his audience expects. He’s direct, sometimes dismissive of official statements, and often uses humor and homespun analogies (“memaw had an age-old saying about being foolish and opening your mouth and removing all doubt”) to punctuate his points. Listener engagement and the sense of community are constant motifs.
If you missed the show, know that Josh Pate offers an unvarnished, logic-first reaction to CFP rankings, lambasts committee rationalizations, fervently advocates for head-to-head results in Playoff debates, and asserts Miami’s rightful place above Notre Dame. He previews championship games with a blend of stats, model insights, and on-the-ground observations, critiques Penn State’s coaching search as a “disaster,” and celebrates a major show milestone. The episode is a whirlwind tour-de-force that eschews corporate hot takes for unfiltered football talk—the kind fans actually want.